Democratização da produção (Parte II)

Parte I.

"Local Motors will build new plants wherever its customers are located, and each manufactured item will effectively be one of a kind, built to suit the tastes and requirements of individual consumers. Scale is replaced by potential savings from engineering, design, parts, labor, and efficiency in a 3D microfactory. Local Motors describes this approach as making money from scope. In other words, it offers useful, attractive, bespoke products to customers who are within shouting distance of its factories, at a price that matches the distinctive value of the item.
...
After decades of chasing lower production costs and scale by extending factory footprints and supply chains deeper into emerging nations and distributing products around the world in huge quantities over complex logistics networks, manufacturers are finding that their globalized approach is losing its viability. In particular, their centralized management structure, lengthy supply chains, lack of product variety, and long shipping times are impeding regional agility — and, in some cases, placing them at a disadvantage to local competition.
...
The most efficient manufacturing setup is the one that makes goods in appropriate volumes to meet demand at the point of demand, with plenty of room for local and individual customization.
...
Some products will be more personalized than others, but overall the distance separating the manufacturer from its customers will be sharply diminished in favor of improved product quality, rapid market response, smaller factories, minimal lead times, better supply chain coordination, and decentralized management.
...
Suppliers in the business-to- business realm will also be under pressure to improve responsiveness as part of the campaign by their customers — that is, manufacturers — to shorten the value chain and more proactively serve the end consumer.
.
The implications are problematic for some companies: Manufacturers that are today highly invested in a global factory network of multiple large centralized plants, managed by traditional operating systems, organizations, and processes, may find their business models becoming obsolete faster than they ever expected. However, the nimblest manufacturers stand to reap significant gains from this new model.
.
As their supply systems become more responsive and as customer demand becomes less of a guessing game, inventory inefficiencies and the carrying costs of warehousing products in bulk — only to ultimately jettison some of them as dead stock — will decline. In addition, savings will be generated by the reduction in expensive long-range production planning and supply chain management. And for companies able to outpace rivals in producing products that are best suited to customer needs — making these items available when customers want them — sales margins should rise markedly."

Tudo coisas que escrevemos aqui no blogue há anos.

Continua.

Trechos retirados de "Manufacturing’s new world order - The rise of the point-of-demand model"

Democratização da produção (Parte I)

Há quantos anos escrevemos aqui sobre Mongo?
Há quantos anos escrevemos aqui sobre o bailado entre a crescente tribalização do gosto dos clientes e a tecnologia que permite a produção personalizada?

"Products will come off the assembly line in small, highly customized batches, like a high-tech version of old-fashioned craftsmanship. The revolution is on its way, and within the next five to 10 years, manufacturers in all industries will find themselves in a race to efficiently produce products at the point of demand — that is, where their customers are — and to deliver these items when their customers want them, personalized to their customers’ individual tastes.
...
Factories will be smaller, operating with minimal lead times and shorter value chains. Management will be decentralized, the supply chain will be simplified and shortened, and the distance separating the manufacturer from its customers will be sharply reduced.
...
In emerging markets as well as developed regions, customers increasingly expect products that match local cultural preference rather than homogeneous global brands and business-to-business services.
...
Nimble manufacturers will reap significant gains from the point-of- demand model. As their supply systems become more responsive and as local customer demand becomes less of a guessing game, inventory inefficiencies and the carrying costs of having to warehouse products in bulk will decline. The expense of supply chain management and production planning will drop as well. And companies able to produce personalized products that are best suited to customer needs when customers want them will enjoy higher sales margins. By contrast, as point-of-demand manufacturing takes hold, companies that operate global factory networks with large centralized plants, managed by traditional operating systems, organizations, and processes, may find that their business models are outmoded."

Interessante como estes artigos não mencionam aquilo que é o óbvio ululante para mim. Caminhamos para uma economia em que pequenas unidades produtivas com alcance global serão cada vez mais comuns, e captarão a nata da margem em cada vez mais negócios.

Rumo à democratização da produção.

Continua.

Trechos retirados de "Manufacturing’s new world order - The rise of the point-of-demand model"

Uma realidade transitória

Da próxima vez que ouvir alguém dizer que o paradigma do Normalistão, o século XX, é o normal de que não nos devemos afastar, pense neste gráfico:

Recordar "Mais outro exemplo: Provinciano, mas muito à frente":

"Há anos que escrevo sobre o futuro do trabalho, sobretudo acerca do fim do emprego estabelecido como paradigma pelo século XX, e que a maioria acredita ser algo milenar, algo eterno."

Imagem retirada de "This is what 150 years of US employment looks like"

Acerca da fábrica do futuro

Um artigo interessante, "Inside the Digital Factory", que aborda vários teas acerca da fábrica do futuro, mas que convenientemente esquece as implicações da democratização da produção. Adiante:

"heralding a new era for manufacturers, marked by totally integrated factories that can rapidly tailor products to individual customer needs and respond instantly to shifting demands and trends. This fully digital factory can be a catalyst for a kinetic growth agenda delivering gains in productivity, financial and operational performance, output, and market share [Moi ici: LOL!!! Até parece que Mongo vai ser terra de competir por market share!] as well as improved control and visibility throughout the supply chain.
...
98 percent of respondents still view digitization somewhat blandly as a path for increasing production efficiency.  [Moi ici: Conheço esta gente. Muitos são boa gente, mas estão de tal forma moldados pelo modelo mental anterior que não conseguem fugir dele. Também por isso vão ser vítimas do que esteve na base do seu sucesso no nível anterior do jogo] But at the same time, a whopping 74 percent of companies named regionalization (being able to set up or expand factories in markets where their products are sold and where opportunities exist to widen revenue streams through customized products and improved service levels) as a primary reason for digital investments. [Moi ici: Uma fábrica para cada continente, dizem algumas multinacionais mais dinâmicas, mas não estão a ver que não é uma questão de eficiência, é uma questão de interacção, de customização, de relação, de proximidade]
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Moreover, in a sharp departure from the recent past, the possibility of being able to immediately tailor products to match customer preferences and to offer customers the option to “build” their own products appears to be driving production decisions more strongly than slashing labor costs.  [Moi ici: Q.E.D.] Indeed, only about 20 percent of respondents now plan to relocate manufacturing facilities to low-wage countries in Asia, Eastern Europe, and South America; nearly 80 percent are looking at Western Europe (where their largest customer bases are) for new digital factory capacity."

O trecho que se segue parece retirado do discurso do meu parceiro das conversas oxigenadoras:

"One of the more intractable obstacles to a successful digital factory is the makeup of the workforce itself. This type of advanced production approach represents an entirely new model of human–machine interaction, one that not many workers — or manufacturers — are prepared for. In our view, understanding the impact on the people in the company is at least as important as calculating the financial benefit of the digital factory, in part because the former will ultimately impinge on the latter. Employees who feel marginalized by the emphasis on new technologies or who are not equipped to work in that environment will compromise the factory’s chances for success."

Nós é que sabemos o que é melhor para os clientes

“Cars go to a diverse audience and diverse customers, and people don’t always agree with the balance or compromises, and you can’t get upset with that,”

Mesmo no final do artigo, "Car Engineers Scoff at Enthusiasts’ Modifications. But Not Always.",  aparece o trecho acima.

Algo que ajuda a explicar Mongo e a democratização da produção, algo que ajuda a explicar a co-criação, algo que ajuda a explicar o sucesso da Local Motors, algo que ajuda a explicar porque as empresas grandes vão perder o seu mercado actual (a reacção dos engenheiros das marcas):

"“I have no doubt in my mind they cannot do it better,”
...
“They can never achieve the finely balanced trade-off we have achieved,”"

Mas a verdade é:

“The reason the market grows the way it does is that the carmakers have a mass-production model and it does not leave a whole lot of room for people who want to improve or personalize or upgrade their cars and trucks,” he said.
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Social media — like websites or Facebook pages for owners of specific models — is also playing an increasing role, Mr. Kersting said.
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“Now people who have similar interests are able to find one another and share expertise and the passion they have for whatever segment of automotive lifestyle or hobby they enjoy,” he said. “It has been very good for the market.”"

A produção do futuro

"Factories will still exist in 2050: buildings where people operate machines that make particular products. It’s difficult to fully imagine the economic structures of a world where cheap, high-volume, mass-production 3-D printing is commonplace. But we can hazard some guesses. Designers will be more esteemed than machinists. Products will be adapted for local needs and preferences, and organic in appearance. There will be fewer warehouses. Factories themselves will be more numerous, smaller, and mostly dark, their machines quietly tended by a highly technical guild."

Fábricas do futuro sim, mas com uma interpretação diferente para o que entendemos por fábrica.

Fábrica = oficina cooperativa de co-criação?
Fábrica = maker's space onde uma cooperativa de artesãos tecnológicos ajudam clientes a co-criarem soluções para os JTBD

Trecho retirado de "3-D Printing Is the Future of Factories (for Real This Time)"

BTW. este artigo "Now you can 3D print an entire bike frame" termina de uma forma que demonstra como muita gente pensa que é possível alterar o método de produção sem que isso tenha implicações na propriedade da produção. Depois de ler:

"Since the robot does all the work, there are no labor costs, it’s feasible to manufacture in the U.S. or Europe and avoid the carbon footprint of shipping bike componets across the ocean.
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Bike brands can design their own new bikes using the system, and the same software could be used to create custom frames for customers within a bike store.
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“The beauty of 3D printing is you can build something with the economics of one unit, because there’s no tooling required,” says Miller. “Not only can we tailor the size, but we can also tailor the ride characteristics, too. Some people want a harder bike or a stiffer bike; some people want a softer, more compliant bike. Because that’s all software controlled, ultimately, we just dial that into the software recipe and then we print that particular recipe out.”"

Não faz sentido terminar com:

"The bikes will be in mass production next year." 

Ou alguém percebeu mal ou há um gato escondido com o rabo de fora.

Cuidado com a absolutização do que a nossa empresa produz (parte II)

Há dias sublinhei:

"Too often solutions are limited to ideas that can easily be shown to incrementally solve existing business goals. Crazy ideas, projects, or initiatives that don’t fit into the mold get rejected."

Domingo, ao ler "Trabalhadores “robot” nas fábricas da VW" e ao ver este vídeo:

"Para minimizar esta situação, a Volkswagen está a recorrer a exoesqueletos robóticos para suportar uma boa parte do esforço, poupando o físico dos funcionários. Não se trata de transformar os trabalhadores em verdadeiros “robocops”, mas tão só de lhes colocar à disposição uma estrutura articulada e assistida, que numa primeira fase facilite as operações realizadas com os braços em posição mais elevada."

Recordei esta figura daqui:

e previsões feitas nos últimos anos aqui no blogue:

• Isto é Mongo! Código na agricultura mas bottom-bottom: a democratização do código (Abril de 2016) onde dá para relacionar a citação inicial lá de cima, com o estar tão concentrado no produto que se perde a oportunidade de continuar a progredir.

"Há coisa de 1/2 anos li um artigo em que um técnico de uma empresa sueca líder no seu sector, a Permobil, discorria sobre as inovações que tinham em curso. Pensei o quão limitados e concentrados nas cadeiras de rodas estavam, na altura começava a ver os artigos sobre experiências com exoesqueletos, os artigos sobre drones controlados pelo pensamento, sobre os smartfones para os paralisados, sobre as aplicações para educar, treinar, ensinar, crianças especiais."

• Um exemplo de miopia na vida real (Setembro de 2016)
• Cuidado com a absolutização do que a nossa empresa produz (Março de 2017)

BTW, a velhice nunca mais será a mesma.

Mais outro exemplo: Provinciano, mas muito à frente

Há anos que escrevo sobre o futuro do trabalho, sobretudo acerca do fim do emprego estabelecido como paradigma pelo século XX, e que a maioria acredita ser algo milenar, algo eterno. Sobretudo, acerca da ascensão do artesão, do artesão apoiado na tecnologia e dedicado à criação de arte e a trabalhar em co-criação com os seus clientes.

Por isso, isto faz todo o sentido, "(Re)naissance de l’Homo Faber : le travailleur de demain sera un artiste ou un artisan rompu aux nouvelles technologies":

"Les sociétés européennes ont toujours tenu pour acquis que la transmission de compétences se ferait de génération en génération : le développement d’un talent d’artiste ou d’artisan se faisait par les enseignements des maîtres précédents. On pourrait penser que ce paradigme a disparu avec la société industrielle, mais ce serait faux : l’avenir du travail pourrait bien revenir aux fondamentaux même de l’histoire du travail, et ce grâce à nos nouvelles technologies. [Moi ici: Tenho escrito sobre isto vezes sem conta, o regresso ao trabalho pré-Revolução Industrial, cooperativas de artesãos]
...
La fabrication numérique assistée par ordinateur fonctionne différemment. Elle ne requiert aucun moule et ne nécessite donc pas de répéter une même forme indéfiniment. Chaque pièce peut-être unique, telle une œuvre d’art. Là où les problématiques d’espace et de quantité dominaient le monde industriel, aujourd’hui, un petit atelier ou un studio peuvent concurrencer une grande usine. La production ne se résume plus à une question de volume.
...
L’émergence d’une économie sans échelle, une économie à taille humaine.
Dans ce nouvel environnement, le plus grand défi pour un travailleur est de penser en artiste tout en exploitant les possibilités des nouvelles technologies. [Moi ici: Outro tema tipo deste blogue, a ascensão da arte]
...
C’est la raison pour laquelle l’apprentissage doit évoluer : il ne s’agit plus de commencer par se former pour ensuite trouver un travail correspondant, mais bien de travailler d’abord, pour trouver par la suite les enseignements qui nous correspondent. [Moi ici: Tão bom!!! A ascensão da arte dita que tudo comece pelo fuçar, pela experimentação - "Não começamos a fazer arte assim que nos tornamos artistas. Ou seja, não é por sermos artistas que fazemos arte, é por fazermos arte que nos tornamos artistas."] Que les nouvelles technologies privent leurs utilisateurs de formations pratiques serait un désastre.
.
Le futur du travail que dessinent ces nouvelles technologies, c’est celui de « l’Homo Faber » : un homme qui sera son propre créateur, qui se réalisera à travers les gestes  du quotidien. Le travail permet d’écrire une histoire dans laquelle chaque projet est un chapitre de vie qui s’additionne aux autres et de ce point de vue, chacun pourra constater que sa vie est plus qu’une série aléatoire de jobs déconnectés – y compris pour les petits boulots rémunérés à la tâche. [Moi ici: Como não recordar o recente "Aproveitei o meu percurso"] 

Democratização da produção (parte II)

Parte I.

"Imagine a manufacturing world of distributed small-batch manufacturing. This is, of course, only one possible outcome, but we suggest it to provide a more concrete picture of how a new technology paradigm could transform manufacturing. At first glance this may appear as a back-to-the future utopia of artisanal producers that is impossibly distant from today’s large-scale, centralized, and globally organized production. But in fact, in a number of economic sectors, we are already seeing a major process of fragmentation at work that involves many of the same mechanisms and technologies that we can conceive as having the potential of transforming manufacturing.
...
What would it take to drive into manufacturing these new economy-wide trends we observe that are reducing scale, shortening the path between the producers of the goods and services and their consumers, and customizing output? In a world of fragmented production, when a company needs a part, it does not build a factory. Rather, it taps into a national network portal and places a computer-aided design (CAD) description of the part it desires, and the numbers it needs, on the portal. To protect its intellectual property, it may perhaps modify the part somewhat. Meanwhile, software systems from small manufacturers around the country prowl the portal looking for parts to bid on. Each manufacturer has a rating, not unlike the system used by eBay, and provides a capacity and response time. Small manufacturers can produce only small numbers of parts, so many small companies might be necessary to meet the customer’s total needs. Software in the portal, perhaps with manual selection from the customer company, selects the ensemble of companies that will manufacture the run. Perhaps representatives from the customer companies also talk to the prospective small manufacturers to ensure that there is a fit.
...
Capacity would be flexible. Small businesses would compete by innovating and anticipating better. Like the Internet, this would be a resilient and adaptive system."

Trechos retirados de "Making in America From innovation to Market" de Suzanne Berger.

Democratização da produção (parte I)

"Through the first century of mass production, companies emphasized maximizing throughput by making a relatively small assortment of standard products. Since the late 1980s, however, mass markets have fragmented, and firms increasingly turn out a greater variety of products that respond to specific customer demands in different market segments. This responsiveness to demand has led manufacturing plants to reverse a tradi- tional linear organization oriented to pushing out product and scheduling output on the basis of sales forecasts and, instead, to organize assembly in response to real-time orders—“pull.” This requires sophisticated integration of production planning and scheduling of plant operations and supply chain management.
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But even with these changes of the past decades, manufacturing today still closely resembles its mass production ancestors. We now stand on the edge of radical changes in this system, as a set of new technologies emerging in laboratories and research centers across the United States promises to completely transform the traditional linear manufacturing organization. First, our ability to synthesize new materials has now advanced to a point where human design of these materials will become as critical a step as fabrication and assembly.
...
Second, the boundary between fabrication and assembly has blurred with the introduction of ultraefficient processes, automation, and even continuous manufacturing in batch sizes of “one.” Third, the product is often not just a physical artifact or widget but an integrated solution that involves bundling of physical products with services and software. Finally, there is a trend toward the systematic return of recycled materials to fabrication or even material synthesis."

Trechos retirados de "Making in America From innovation to Market" de Suzanne Berger

"O que passa-se?" (parte II)

Parte I.

O artigo continua com um exemplo já conhecido aqui do blogue, a Local Motors (postal de 2012, outro de 2016 e outro de 2017).

"A small U.S. startup called Local Motors offers an intriguing glimpse into the future of manufacturing. The company manages five so-called microfactories around the world, which primarily use 3D-printing equipment to produce such modern-day curios as Olli, a self-driving shuttle bus with IBM Watson artificial intelligence that can be hailed via a smartphone app and follows voice instructions; a cargo-carrying drone for Airbus dubbed the Zelator; and the world’s first 3D-printed car, the Strati — road-worthy if not a speedster — built live in 44 hours at the International Manufacturing Technology Show.
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But the 3D-printing aspect of Local Motors’ business model is just a small part of what makes this company worth examining. The company is also crowdsourcing production designs from a network of global participants,
...
As the microfactory concept evolves, Local Motors will build new plants wherever its customers are located, and each manufactured item will effectively be one of a kind, built to suit the tastes and requirements of individual consumers. Scale is replaced by potential savings from engineering, design, parts, labor, and efficiency in a 3D microfactory. Local Motors describes this approach as making money from scope. In other words, it offers useful, attractive, bespoke products to customers who are within shouting distance of its factories, at a price that matches the distinctive value of the item.
Local Motors is still a nascent business — and may or may not ultimately succeed — but at its core it reflects a vital shift in production dogma that manufacturers of all sizes will have to reckon with in the coming years. After decades of chasing lower production costs and scale by extending factory footprints and supply chains deeper into emerging nations and distributing products around the world in huge quantities over complex logistics networks, manufacturers are finding that their globalized approach is losing its viability. In particular, their centralized management structure, lengthy supply chains, lack of product variety, and long shipping times are impeding regional agility — and, in some cases, placing them at a disadvantage to local competition.
Instead, the new strategic archetype for successful manufacturers will be based on a relatively simple idea: The most efficient manufacturing setup is the one that makes goods in appropriate volumes to meet demand at the point of demand, with plenty of room for local and individual customization. Much of this concept will be driven by advances in technology — 3D printing, factory innovations, e-commerce, data analytics, and the Internet of Things, to name a few
...
Moreover, the impact of the point-of-demand model will not be limited to the business-to- consumer environment. Suppliers in the business-to-business realm will also be under pressure to improve responsiveness as part of the campaign by their customers — that is, manufacturers — to shorten the value chain and more proactively serve the end consumer.
The implications are problematic for some companies: Manufacturers that are today highly invested in a global factory network of multiple large centralized plants, managed by traditional operating systems, organizations, and processes, may find their business models becoming obsolete faster than they ever expected. [Moi ici: Recordar esta reflexão de 2014] However, the nimblest manufacturers stand to reap significant gains from this new model. As their supply systems become more responsive and as customer demand becomes less of a guessing game, inventory inefficiencies and the carrying costs of warehousing products in bulk — only to ultimately jettison some of them as dead stock — will decline. In addition, savings will be generated by the reduction in expensive long-range production planning and supply chain management. And for companies able to outpace rivals in producing products that are best suited to customer needs — making these items available when customers want them — sales margins should rise markedly."

Conseguem imaginar como isto vai mudar o paradigma económico? Conseguem visualizar o fim do mundo criado pelo século XX?

"O que passa-se?"

Normalmente aqui no blogue, chamo a atenção para a cegueira das empresas de consultoria grandes, parece que escondem dos seus clientes grandes o impacte de Mongo na sua actividade.

Julgo que é a primeira vez que encontro um texto de uma consultora grande sobre Mongo e as suas implicações na economia, nos ecossistemas e na dimensão das empresas.

"In the next manufacturing revolution, spurred on by technologies that reinvent the way a factory can create products, such as 3D printing and robotics, companies will also need to rethink what they make and where they make it. Products will come off the assembly line in small, highly customized batches, like a high-tech version of old-fashioned craftsmanship. [Moi ici: Digam lá se isto não é uma entrada à matador com Mongo em toda a linha!!! Desde os pequenos lotes até aos artesãos tecnológicos longe das máquinas-monumento tão queridas dos que pensam que o Normalistão do século XX automatizado será o paradigma produtivo do século XXI]
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The revolution is on its way, and within the next five to 10 years, manufacturers in all industries will find themselves in a race to efficiently produce products at the point of demand — that is, where their customers are — and to deliver these items when their customers want them, personalized to their customers’ individual tastes. They will have to make strategic choices to stay competitive, investing in technology that allows them to continually analyze data about their customers’ preferences and buying habits so they can adapt quickly to changes in market conditions. Factories will be smaller, [Moi ici: Imaginem os cromos da Junqueira ao ler estas blasfémias!] operating with minimal lead times and shorter value chains. Management will be decentralized, the supply chain will be simplified and shortened, and the distance separating the manufacturer from its customers will be sharply reduced.
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Although technology will enable this new manufacturing model, customers will compel its adoption. In emerging markets as well as developed regions, customers increasingly expect products that match local cultural preference rather than homogeneous global brands and business-to-business services. The auto industry pioneered this localized model as long ago as the 1980s, when Japanese automakers entered the U.S. market with cars tailored to American tastes. But only recently have other industries taken up this approach — with refrigerators, toothpaste, furniture, clothing, and software that are designed for each region. The popularity of e-commerce has changed the customer experience, giving people more information about products and competitors’ products, pricing, and, through peer reviews, quality. For the first time, customers can reasonably demand from mass producers products that look and feel like they were made next door.
.
Nimble manufacturers will reap significant gains from the point-ofdemand model. As their supply systems become more responsive and as local customer demand becomes less of a guessing game, inventory inefficiencies and the carrying costs of having to warehouse products in bulk will decline. The expense of supply chain management and production planning will drop as well. And companies able to produce personalized products that are best suited to customer needs when customers want them will enjoy higher sales margins. By contrast, as point-of-demand manufacturing takes hold, companies that operate global factory networks with large centralized plants, managed by traditional operating systems, organizations, and processes, may find that their business models are outmoded."

Ao chegar aqui recordei, "Pedro Nuno Santos quer Estado como motor do desenvolvimento", porque estava a nascer em mim um outro pensamento, o oposto... o que esperar de um contrarian-militante! O que seria a orientação geral de um governo para facilitar a transição para este tipo de sociedade?

Empresas pequenas, DIY, empreendedorismo verdadeiro não treta para sacar Portugal 2020, fiscalidade normanda, legislação laboral, democratização da produção.

Esta transição vai acontecer, inevitavelmente, pedida, ordenada pelos clientes, pelas tribos de Mongo. E teremos governos cada vez mais incapazes de perceber o que se passa, questionando-se, "O que passa-se?", cada vez mais crentes nas virtudes do Normalistão, num mundo que se afasta cada vez mais desse paradigma.

Trechos retirados de "Manufacturing’s new world order: The rise of the point-of-demand model"

A maré do século XXI

Há dias Steve Blank usava a história para fazer um paralelismo entre Elon Musk e o fundador da GM, "Why the Future of Tesla May Depend on Knowing What Happened to Billy Durant".

O artigo é muito interessante e deu para aprender factos importantes. No entanto, há uma ressalva que  quero fazer: atenção à grande corrente de fundo que estava em marcha na primeira metade do século XX.

A primeira metade do século XX foi a ascensão de Metrópolis, a ascensão de Magnitograd, a ascensão da produção em massa, a ascensão da padronização, o triunfo do Normalistão.

Agora, a embrenharmos-nos no século XXI, estamos perante uma outra corrente, uma corrente numa direcção oposta: a ascensão de um mundo económico a que metaforicamente chamo de Mongo; o Estranhistão, a ascensão da variedade, a ascensão da diversidade, a ascensão dos artesãos e das tribos.

Ontem descobri um artigo que ilustra bem esta corrente que nos está a levar a Mongo, "How to Start Designing Your Own Products in 4 Easy Steps":

"With print-on-demand, the sky's the limit with what you can create. And the best part is, for aspiring business owners, it's extremely easy to get started.
.
Over the last two years, I've gone from zero to over 600 products that I sell online using print-on-demand technology. The technology has not only allowed me to create a passive income, but also explore my creative side. The best part -- there are literally hundreds of products that I can create so I can focus my time and creative efforts on coming up with incredible designs."

Aquilo a que se chama aqui de democratização da produção (desde 2012), o que vai derrotar os gigantes concentrados na massa, as cooperativas de artesãos. Recordar que na cidade americana de Baltimore, só nessa cidade, em 1920 existiam 19 marcas fabricantes de automóveis.

"Giants invariably descend into suckiness" (parte III)

Parte I e parte II.

"Not only did print on demand provide an easy way to offer my customers more options, but it was also a simple way to spread brand awareness without having to fill my apartment with inventory.
The world of print-on-demand fashion has revolutionized the side hustle and merchandising game for many entrepreneurs. There is no risk in launching a new T-shirt design in your store because there is no preprinting and inventory required.
...
“E-commerce is all about finding ways to do things faster, cheaper, and easier,” ... “The fact that I can run a profitable business out of my home, with no office space, employees, or startup costs is pretty phenomenal.”
...
Some store owners have taken advantage of these same tools to make hyper-personalized items.
...
Despite these advantages, one of the largest downsides to print on demand remains the price. When no quantities are guaranteed up front, the prices for printing are not cheap, leaving a low profit margin for the seller.
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Print-on-demand platforms make it easy for artists to list their work on a multitude of shirts, posters, mugs, and so on without testing them in advance. Companies make this variety tempting to give customers a greater selection and increase the chances they’ll make a purchase.
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In our fast-paced era of online content creation, social media stars with big fan bases are becoming much more common. For smaller stars with dedicated followings, these on-demand opportunities can also be fantastic for creating branded merchandise. YouTubers and podcasters can let their fans be brand ambassadors, spreading the word and growing the hype.
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But on-demand printing is not limited to fashion. It’s also a wonderful way for writers to self-publish.
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Overall, on-demand printing and its integration with various platforms is empowering designers and creators alike to take charge over their creative ventures and not be limited by traditional business or industry barriers. It makes small fashion businesses more accessible and brings buyers a more custom experience."

Recordar todos aqueles que têm sempre na boca a inovação, a Indústria 4.0, a IA e, continuam a acreditar que a escala é tudo:

"Hoje em dia, na grande parte das actividades, a escala é muito importante."

E não percebem a dispersão crescente da procura, de como a autenticidade é cada vez mais importante e de como há cada vez menos barreiras à entrada: a democratização da produção.




Trechos retirados de "Technology Shaping the Fashion Industry"

Quanto tempo? (parte II)

Parte I.

Nem de propósito, entretanto, encontrei "Can blockchain ensure Unilever’s tea farmers produce a fairer brew?":

"Imagine being able to trace the exact origins of your cup of tea: where and how it was made, whether organic soil was used and if the workers were treated fairly.[Moi ici: Perfeito para Mongo, para a democratização da produção e para a autenticidade]"

Mais um exemplo da democratização da inovação

Um interessante exemplo da democratização da produção, da democratização da inovação e de Mongo relatado em "Nurse as Maker: Democratizing Medical Innovation Starts Here":

"what if research and development of medical devices was democratized? What if the practitioners who work most closely with patients were brought into the product innovation pipeline?
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With this in mind, the team is building programs to create technology literacy for practitioners, and is also working to build a platform to support a global network of health makers to engage in peer-to-peer learning.
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Nurses aren’t the only people empowered when given the necessary tools for innovation. The patient is the true beneficiary of democratizing the medical innovation process.
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It’s a great example of how a new shiny product alone isn’t always the best solution. Sometimes the best solutions are scrappy and created in close feedback loops packed with insights from real users—in this case, patients."

Recordar "A minha aposta: "make local for local""

Cooperativas de bairro que funcionam como makerspaces e onde os artesãos vão expor modelos e interagir com clientes

O exemplo da cerveja

Um texto, mais um, desta feita de Richard Florida, sobre o exemplo da evolução das cervejas artesanais nos Estados Unidos, "Can Craft Breweries Transform America's Post-Industrial Neighborhoods?".

Democratização da produção, diferenciação e um "live and let live" (empresas do mesmo sector, lado a lado geograficamente, mas que verdadeiramente não se consideram concorrentes, não é um jogo de soma nula, quanto mais o ecossistema criar valor mais todos ganham), regresso da indústria às cidades (um tema recorrente no que vou pensando e encontrando).

BTW, este é um outro exemplo da ascensão de artesãos do futuro:

"the craft beer revolution, ... is highly clustered. The good news is that many of these clusters are taking shape in places that have been subject to disinvestment and deindustrialization.
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Craft breweries find it beneficial to locate near one another so they can sell each other excess grain and hops, share equipment, and even train one another’s staff. The smallest breweries, in particular, garner large proportions of their revenue from their taprooms. Locating in a thriving brewery district can drive up foot traffic and attract beer tourists.
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While craft breweries do in fact compete against one another in these brewery districts, their products tend to be much more differentiated than those of the big brewers, making competition less direct.
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The rise of craft brewing also tracks with a desire, most pronounced among millennial consumers, for “adventure” and “variety” in the products they choose, according to the study.
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Even more importantly, brewpubs and microbreweries provide their neighborhoods with community gathering places, while craft beer brands convey a sense of pride and identity to places that could use a morale boost. And unlike traditional bars, taprooms and brewpubs tend to be family (and sometimes even dog) friendly."

Decisões de localização (parte II)

Parte I.

Na leitura final de "From Global to Local" de Finbarr Livesey encontrei uma série de trechos sobre decisões de localização com os quais concordo embora com algumas dúvidas:

[Moi ici: Primeiro algo sobre Mongo] "While new production technologies are not going to give us Star Trek like 'replicator' any time soon, they are enabling smaller factories to be  economically viable. They do this by lowering what is referred  to as minimum economic scale, the lowest volume of production for which the investment in the factory is financially viable. [Moi ici: Isto é Mongo a 100%. A democratização da produção]
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The simple view of production was that bigger is better: you offset large capital costs by having a factory that produces in high volume with extreme efficiency. The case for ever increasing sizes of factory hits barriers of coordination if the factories become too large and the level required to be efficient or cost competitive has fallen as additive manufacturing and other techniques have developed and improved their performance. [Moi ici: BTW, a seu tempo os políticos descobrirão isto mas só depois de provocar muito sofrimento com as escolas-cidade, os hospitais-cidade, os tribunais-cidade, as esquadras-cidade, ...] A key implication of techniques like additive manufacturing is that they remove the need for specialised components such as moulds or forms to be made specific to the product working its way down the assembly line. [Moi ici: Pesquisar a palavra japonesa "seru"] As well as saving cost and time by not having to make these specialised pieces, it also means that a factory can more easily make a variety of products. Rather than thinking of the investment in a factory being tied to one product, the costs can be offset against the income generated from a series of products, hence a lower minimum economic scale for each product. With lower scale, the likelihood of having a greater number of smaller factories instead of a small number of extremely large factories goes up. And as that happens the factories are going to be geographically dispersed, lowering the number of trade movements necessary to get a product to customers in different countries.
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[Moi ici: Agora sobre decisões de localização] The second level of change is a strengthening of the regionalisation of trade. The temptation is to work at the extremes — everything is global or everything is local. This misses the subtleties that are needed in industrial organisation and the diversity that exists in manufacturing. Regionalisation will be driven by the balance of forces between the scale required to have efficiencies and the desire to reduce time to customer and the costs of being in different countries simultaneously.[Moi ici: Sinto que há muito de verdade neste último trecho. Unidades produtivas muito eficientes a trabalhar para todo o mundo produzindo artigos fáceis de transportar e pouco dependentes da vontade do cliente na sua versão final. Unidades produtivas ágeis e mais pequenas, talvez a trabalhar para mercados até 3/4 dias de camião, mais próximas do lugar de consumo, permitindo produções com séries curtas, reposições rápidas, alterações de design e iterações rápidas. Unidades produtivas junto do consumo para permitir customização, interacção, co-criação ]
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It is worth noting that even though the declining importance of distance for trade has been accepted as a stylised fact for many years. distance has always moderated trade. [Moi ici: Ghemawat tem um livro com uns gráficos espectaculares que ilustram esta realidade] The further away from one another two countries are, the smaller the level of trade we would expect to see between them. A recent review of over one hundred academic papers on the effect of distance on trade indicates that the average effect means that to per cent increase in distance lowers bilateral trade by about 9 per cent? Distance continues to matter even with absolute transport costs falling and increasing digital interconnection around the world. [Moi ici: Depois disto tudo tenho dúvidas num aspecto. Se a digitalização e a conectividade reduzem as fronteiras, como conciliar tudo isto com a técnica alemã de procurar clientes-alvo independentemente da geografia? Acredito que a diferenciação que trabalha para nichos e que não se baseia na interacção mas antes na vantagem tecnológica ou de design crescerá baseada na conectividade digital sem olhar à geografia]
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With smaller factories being economically viable and tooling costs falling due to increased use of techniques like additive manufacturing, companies can produce for the different regions of the world independently rather than attempting to have a global product. [Moi ici: Teremos pois, é fácil de prever para os próximos anos, a criação de unidades produtivas de multinacionais para servirem continentes e não o mundo]
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In a regionalised scenario a company may not have its supply chain and final assembly all in the country in which it will be selling its products. They can organise themselves and their suppliers across the region. However, in some cases that won't be the best way to be organised, for example if time is really an issue. If there cannot be a lag of, say, a week to get goods from Mexico to the east coast of the USA, then the company will need to have at least final assembly in the country of purchase, if not more of the supply chain feeding that assembly process for your product.
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At the third level within regions we are likely to see agglomeration or clustering effects. These clusters arise as there are positive effects for companies to be close to other companies im similar sectors.
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As we move into a world where products have shorter journeys to get to us, where factories are smaller and there are more of them, and where is great uncertainty about what work we will be doing, the other elements of globalization will also continue to evolve. Nothing in the trends we have described will by themselves reduce or block digital globalization."

Mongo - outra previsão

"I predict that over the next 25 years we should expect to see radical de-centralization in virtually every large human endeavor, from global businesses to educational institutions, nonprofits, and even governments themselves.
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Within a single generation (at most, two), we will see nearly every large, top-down organization now in existence rendered nearly obsolete, supplanted or made irrelevant by decentralized, self-organizing groups of individuals. From giant manufacturing companies and world-scale software vendors to local, state, and national governments and bureaus, the tasks these organizations accomplish today are all likely to be accomplished instead by groups of individual people connected and empowered by technology. [Moi ici: Até aqui tudo em sintonia com a previsão que fazemos há anos acerca de Mongo. Até aqui em linha com as provocações que costumo fazer aos textos das consultoras grandes que trabalham para as multinacionais e que escondem esta possibilidade. Já o trecho que se segue não tem o meu acordo. Prevejo a ascensão das plataformas cooperativas numa segunda geração. Numa primeira fase as plataformas gigantes são necessárias para partir as leis do século XX criadas para proteger as corporações incumbents. Depois, a estratégia fará o seu aparecimento] Think about Uber, Taskrabbit, or Airbnb, and how these would be applied to large companies and governments.
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The more efficiently technology connects us, the more radical this decentralization process will become. In 25 years it’s quite likely that a large number of today’s big industries, business models, and even government organizations will no longer exist, their functions sustained by looser, decentralized groups."

Trechos retirados de "My 25-Year Prediction: Radical Decentralization"

Beyond Lean (parte II)

Na parte I procurámos demonstrar que o futuro será muito mais do que a automatização. A explosão de tribos de Mongo requer estruturas produtivas com um ADN diferente do que aquele que o século XX nos legou.

A evolução tecnológica vai trazer, também, a democratização da produção, a redução de barreiras à entrada e, por isso, a explosão no número de pequenas empresas life-style business.

Em paralelo a esta evolução, que vai sugar os mais apaixonados para uma nova Idade de Ouro de artesãos do século XXI, teremos a reacção das empresas grandes no seu combate final pelo domínio da decrescente fatia de mercado que representa os que continuam dentro da caixa e optam pelo preço como o critério prioritário de compra. Essas continuarão a optar pela automatização como forma de reduzir custos.

E em paralelo com as duas correntes anteriores teremos uma terceira impulsionada pela demografia e tão bem ilustrada em "Rise of the machines".

Até que ponto Portugal vai ter de ser pioneiro nesta terceira via?

Demografia, marxismo social e a atracção pela emigração, são uma combinação tremenda que só agora começa a ter o seu impacte. Recordar:

• Fico com a ideia de que muita gente ainda não percebeu isto
• 1 + 1 = 3 ?
• Empresas que não têm tempo para definir um futuro
• Curiosidade do dia