Por cá, basta torrar impostos na TAP e na EFACEC para ficarmos todos bem!

Ontem, depois disto:

Li no FT "Small business: a canary in the American economic coal mine":

"If you’re looking to predict the shape of the economic recovery in the United States – be it V, W, L or even K – don’t look at the markets. Take a look at the small and medium-sized businesses that account for 50 percent of the country’s employment. They are the best economic indicator in America right now. They are also in trouble.

...

By mid-April, revenues from personal service businesses – typically a single entrepreneur working, for example, as a locksmith, hairstylist, or pet sitter – were down 80%. These companies are disproportionately owned by minority entrepreneurs, another reason why the pandemic is increasing inequality. In mid-June, almost half of US small business owners said they did not expect to return to normal operations in the next six months, according to a Credit Suisse survey.

.

These companies – from health clubs to restaurants and retailers – employ about half of the US workforce. These are not “strategic” or “high-growth” companies that policy makers and economists generally seek to encourage. But their pain “is a big problem for the macro economy,” as Deutsche Bank Securities chief economist Torsten Slok told me – not least because they provide far more jobs than the S&P 500 companies, which account for only 10 percent of the US nonfarm total wages.

...

You don’t have to analyze public health statistics or wacky analyst reports to get a sense of the real economy in America. Just go down Main Street. The many small businesses that have closed represent two-thirds of the 20 million jobs lost since the pandemic. Some old hotspots, like New York, reopen with caution. But most small business revenue forecasts are not close to normal.

.

A second wave of illnesses would certainly trigger a new wave of layoffs and insolvencies. According to the New York Fed, only one in five small businesses can survive a loss of income for two months. Many small businesses even reduce their rehiring when they reopen. For the most affected areas, things may never return to normal. The Credit Suisse survey found that 17% of hotels and restaurants believe their revenues will never return to pre-Covid-19 levels.

.

The ripple effects from all of this will be huge. Many small businesses are physical, not virtual. They are not designed for locking. They do not have access to world capital. They are rooted in the communities they serve. 

Their fortunes are not flattered by the liquidity of the central bank. Any investor who really wants to take the economic pulse of America has only to speak to the owner of his local cafe, beauty salon or cinema. They will have a very different reading from that of Wall Street."

Por cá, basta torrar impostos na TAP e na EFACEC para ficarmos todos bem! 

Até a Santa Casa da Misericórdia de Lisboa vai ficar bem!!!

Há muitos anos passou na televisão portuguesa a preto e branco uma série inglesa, "Os Desastres de Frank Spencer". Recordo sempre um episódio, ou melhor, o final de um episódio. Nunca mais o vi, mas as imagens finais nunca as esqueci.

Voltei a recordar-me delas depois de ler: "Santa Casa da Misericórdia de Lisboa pode terminar 2020 com prejuízos acima de 30 milhões"

Eu devia ter 9 ou 10 anos quando vi esse episódio. Frank era despedido de emprego atrás de emprego, depois de deixar cada empresa em que ingressava no maior caos, provocado pelas suas trapalhadas. Nos minutos finais alguém, um psiquiatra(?), recomenda que Frank emigre para a Austrália, para assumir o emprego de guardador de rebanhos. Julgo que o psiquiatra terá dito "Põe-no a guardar um rebanho com 1 milhão de carneiros, mnesmo que perca alguns milhares ninguém vai notar". A imagem seguinte é a de Frank, sozinho,  montado num cavalo, no meio de uma suposta pradaria australiana, a exclamar:

- Betty (a mulher dele), perdi-os todos!!!

Até a Santa Casa da Misericórdia de Lisboa vai ficar bem!!!

"Vamos ficar todos mesmo bem"

"No Boletim Económico divulgado ontem, o Banco de Portugal reviu em baixa a sua estimativa de recessão para este ano, esperando agora uma contração económica de 9,5% este ano – que pode chegar aos 13,1% num cenário mais adverso. Em março, quando a pandemia tinha chegado a Portugal, os técnicos da instituição ainda liderada por Carlos Costa esperavam uma queda de 5,7% no PIB.

O BdP, que era a instituição mais otimista, torna-se agora na mais pessimista, aproximando-se de outras instituições que recentemente apresentaram as suas projeções e que fazem crer que quanto mais recente é a estimativa para a economia portuguesa, maior a probabilidade de ser mais negativa."

O PIB entre 2009 e 2013 terá caído um acumulado de cerca de 6%... o que será cair 11% num único ano?

Sinto que estamos algures durante a conversa deste anúncio:

Trecho retirado do Jornal de Negócios "Banco de Portugal põe em xeque pressupostos do retificativo"

"recovery from the coronavirus crisis will instead require "discontinuous transformation""

Outro interessante artigo do Financial Times do passado dia 15 de Junho, "When business survival is at stake, it pays to have a discontinuity plan":

"So for many business and industries, recovery from the coronavirus crisis will instead require "discontinuous transformation" — a change not just in the rate but also the direction of travel, and not through mere incremental moves. Such radical reassessment of capabilities, operations and even the business model itself could become a routine necessity. 

...

Finance plays a key role in this type of rethinking and reorientation. Traditional forecasting methods and return on investment (ROI) benchmarks may need re-evaluation. The types of linear progress that finance managers have historically sought will become obsolete at many companies because of the economic disruption caused by coronavirus. 

...

First, transformation can occur without large capital expenditures —indeed, new capital will not help if the approach is wrong to begin with. The trajectory of change is difficult to discern at the start, and becomes clear only as the journey unfolds. 

.

By committing large sums up front, before the steps required are apparent, management creates a risk of significant waste; if backtracking is needed, there will be heavy capital loss as well as delay to factor in. Paradoxically, slower spending speeds up change: to borrow the US Navy Seals' saying: "slow is smooth, and smooth is fast."

...

Third, executives should not underestimate what they can do with savings in times of discontinuous transformation. Big cost reductions can flow from dismantling an existing business in favour of a new model. Liquidity will surely be a big issue for financial managers as they navigate a recovery from the economic impact of coronavirus, so such savings could be a lifeline for many companies. Finally, and on the other side of the ledger, liquidity can also be protected by not prematurely dismantling existing revenue streams that can help fund the transformation. The key is to tap these sources while not allowing them to impede progress by providing a false sense of security. 

...

This is not the only cultural shift that leaders need to assimilate. Traditional hierarchies and routines loosen during discontinuous transformation, with employees becoming empowered to think and act in new ways, and new types of collaboration across functions and teams emerging.

...

While hierarchy serves a valid corporate purpose, that of ensuring accountability, it can also stifle creativity if it is too rigid. As companies emerge into the new economic landscape that coronavirus has given rise to, the capacity for creativity will be more valuable than ever. In an era of discontinuity, "business as usual" is a high-risk proposition." 

As empresas supostamente protegidas pelo lay-off terão alguma motivação para testar estas descontinuidades? Os zombies não são conhecidos por rasgos estratégicos.

As disguised blessings não são oferecidas, são conquistadas, são desenhadas.

The Walking Dead e o activismo político

Governos, empresas grandes e "crony capitalism" 

"There’s an important risk in what I call the “bailout of everything,” or the conscious decision from governments and central banks to provide any needed support to all sectors and companies with access to debt.

.

Most of these stimulus packages and liquidity measures are aimed at supporting current government spending and providing liquidity to companies with assets, access to debt, and in traditional sectors. It’s not a surprise, then, that at the same time as we see the largest fiscal and monetary support plan since World War II, we are already witnessing two dangerous collateral effects: the rise of zombie companies and the collapse of small businesses and start-ups.

...

Additionally, according to Deutsche Bank and the Bank of International Settlements, the number of zombie companies in the eurozone and the United States, large companies that cannot cover their interest expense costs with operating profits, has rocketed to new all-time highs.

...

“Europe’s productivity problem is partly due to the rise of zombie firms that crowd out growth opportunities for others.” This problem is only increasing in the current crisis.

.

The rise in bond defaults is a consequence of previous high leverage in a weakening operating income environment. This should not be a concern if creative destruction works to improve the economy, as inefficient companies are taken over by efficient ones and new investors restructure challenged businesses to make them competitive. The big problem is that massive liquidity and low rates are perpetuating overcapacity and keeping an extraordinary amount of zombie firms alive.

...

Maintaining and increasing zombie firms destroys any positive effect from restructuring and innovation. Additionally, to maintain cash flows and stay alive, companies are cutting investment in innovation, technology, and research. Meanwhile, small businesses that do not have access to debt or own hard assets are dissolving every day.

.

In most developed economies, where 80 percent of employment comes from small businesses, the “bailout of everything” is becoming a massive transfer of wealth from the new economy to the old economy, preventing a stronger and more productive recovery.

...

The “Bailout of Everything” (as long as it’s large) creates significant risks. Low productivity and indebted sectors survive, creating a perverse incentive that benefits malinvestment and poor capital allocation. Additionally, as these sectors already had overcapacity and structural problems, their bailout does not lead to higher job creation or stronger investment. Furthermore, high-productivity sectors will likely suffer the tax burden that rises after these governments’ rescue plans, diminishing the employment potential and the likelihood of rising real wages as productivity growth stalls."

Trechos retirados de "The Risk of the ‘Bailout of Everything’"

"that model died this year"

México = Marrocos, Turquia, Roménia e Bulgária.

"“You have a couple of big names already moving to Mexico, all auto parts,” says Alfred Nader, president of OFX North American in San Francisco. “Some of them are leaving China and going to Mexico because of the new NAFTA. ... Most people don’t really think of this, but Mexico is cheap and on a labor perspective it is as cheap or cheaper than China,” says Nader.

...

“Using China as a hub...that model died this year, I think,” says Vladimir Signorelli, head of Bretton Woods Research, a macro investment research firm.

...

“Our survey shows that a large majority of executives are moving or have moved portions of their operations from another country to Mexico,” says Christopher Swift, Foley partner and litigator in the firm’s Government Enforcement Defense & Investigations Practice.

For those considering moving operations, 80% said they will do so within the next two years. They are “doubling down on Mexico”, according to Foley’s report."

Na pressa, na turbulência pós-covid, algumas encomendas passarão para Portugal, mas poucas e por pouco tempo. 

Cada vez mais somos um "boring country" como nos destacamos? Pelo topo inferior dos custos? Não! Pelo topo superior do contexto? Não!

Como nos poderíamos tornar "remarkable"?

Em banho-maria continuaremos.

 

Trechos retirados de "Most Small Businesses Say They’re Looking To Leave China" 

"The new normal will be different"

"It’s important to understand that the fashion industry is full of small brands and many will not survive, especially in countries where the market is not big enough. In Southern Europe, digital is not as big as it is elsewhere. The idea of going back to normal there will be different, and there will be fewer brands.

...

Will Chinese tourists come to Paris in the next six, ten, or twelve months? I doubt it. The new normal will be different.

...

Use this opportunity to reimagine what the fashion life cycle should look like in terms of speed, overproduction, and consumption to change things for the better."

Trechos retirados de "A perfect storm for fashion marketplaces"

"has metastasized into a collapse of the demand side"

"But there are clear signs that the collapse of economic activity has set in motion problems that will play out over many months, or maybe many years. If not contained, they could cause human misery on a mass scale and create lasting scars for families.
.
The fabric of the economy has been ripped, with damage done to millions of interconnections — between workers and employers, companies and their suppliers, borrowers and lenders. Both the historical evidence from severe economic crises and the data available today point to enormous delayed effects.
...
The economy is a gigantic machine in which one person’s consumption spending generates someone else’s income. The pandemic began by crushing the economy’s productive capacity — a shock to the supply side of the economy, as many types of business activity were shut down for public health concerns.
.
In normal times, when there is a negative supply shock (say, a year of drought that reduces agricultural crops, or new tariffs that make imports more expensive), the pain can be intense for people in sectors directly affected, yet the economy as a whole adjusts.
.
But this crisis is so large and so sudden that the usual adjustment mechanisms aren’t working very well.
.
The people losing their jobs because of shutdowns cannot easily find new ones, because so much of the economy is shuttered at the same time. The businesses in danger of closing have cut every possible expense
...
The result is that what started as a disruption to the supply side of the economy has metastasized into a collapse of the demand side
...
The demand shock, with lagged effects, is only beginning to hurt major segments of the economy, like sellers of capital goods that are experiencing plunging sales; state and local governments that are seeing tax revenues crater; and landlords who are seeing rent payments dry up."

Trechos retirados de "Don’t Lose the Thread. The Economy Is Experiencing an Epic Collapse of Demand."

Que cadeias de abastecimento para os próximos dois anos? (parte II)

Parte I.

"Even as factories come back online, new problems are constantly emerging. Brands are changing how they approach their supply chains in ways that will resonate long after the crisis. In many cases, flexibility is now a top priority. So is transparency, as the ability to keep tabs on where fabric and raw materials are at any given moment can now make or break a business.
...
Manufacturers have problems of their own, including cancelled orders from brands that had to close stores and are now stuck with warehouses full of unsold spring clothes. Tal Group, which manufactures products for brands including Michael Kors and Patagonia, expects order volumes to be down between 40 and 50 percent for the rest of the year. In April, it announced it would close operations at its two factories in Malaysia.
...
Some brands are moving their manufacturing out of China. This was a trend before the pandemic, due to rising costs and a simmering trade war with the US. In the McKinsey survey, around 60 percent of respondents said they expected manufacturing clusters to develop more quickly in markets like Eastern Europe and Central America that are closer to customers in the US and Western Europe.
...
“The dividing line between winners and losers are the ones who will be able to adapt fast and in an intelligent way.”"

Trechos retirados de "How to Avoid the Next Supply Chain Shock"

Que cadeias de abastecimento para os próximos dois anos?

"Assuming the pandemic lifts and lockdowns end, the medium-term threat to long and complex supply chains comes from two sets of decisions. One is by companies concluding they have overexposed themselves to shocks. The other is governments trying to force businesses to diversify supply internationally or to bring their production home.
.
On the first, it is unclear whether shortening or diversifying supply chains would have helped companies avoid a global shock such as Covid-19. [Moi ici: Fico admirado com esta argumentação. O que se passou, passou-se. As decisões do futuro serão acerca do contexto do futuro. Daqui - "it may take up to two years to fully restore consumer confidence" - que cadeias de abastecimento serão mais flexíveis para gerir os próximos dois anos? Que cadeias de abastecimento serão mais flexíveis para as tentativas, erros e reposições mais frequentes?] There is a strong view among some academics and management theorists that it would. Beata Javorcik, chief economist at the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, wrote in the FT:
“The quest to find the most cost-effective suppliers has left many companies without a plan B. Businesses will be forced to rethink their global value chains . . . the disadvantages of a system that requires all of its elements to work like clockwork have now been exposed.”
...
Meanwhile, the costs of changing supplier — and sourcing from more than one provider to spread the risk — is prohibitively expensive for an industry as complex as carmaking. “You need to spend a great deal of management time and effort and expertise on actually making sure the supplier you have chosen has processes that are capable, reliable and repeatable,” Mr Neill says.
...
The combination of labour cost arbitrage and clusters of specialisms push companies towards constructing a disaggregated international value chain.
...
Second, China has actively encouraged its companies to create supply chains with state help through the Belt and Road Initiative, which includes a strong motivation to service the European market. There will always be some life in global supply chains as long as the vast resources of the Chinese state are busy building infrastructure and establishing trading links across the world."

Trechos retirados de "Will coronavirus pandemic finally kill off global supply chains?"

Que futuro?

"In Europe and the US, more than 65 percent of consumers expect to decrease their spending on apparel, while only 40 percent expect to decrease total household spending.
...
As a result, overfilled warehouses laden with unsold seasonal stock will haunt most players, as long lead times weigh heavily on fashion’s supply chain and global consumer appetite for discretionary purchases wavers. Companies will turn to steep discounting to clear inventory for the rest of the year at a minimum, with a risk that “the contagion of deep discounting could spread as quickly as the disease”
...
Some retailers in the US estimate that a majority of spring inventory will be leftover due to store closures and a dip in online traffic, conversions and consumer sentiment. Following the imposition of lockdowns across most of Europe and the US, some brands and retailers have stopped fulfilling e-commerce orders entirely, while many of those who remain up and running have resorted to flash and mid-season sales to increase demand. In Italy, the number of items on discount is up 20 percent year-on-year.
...
Evidence from previous crisis shows that it may take up to two years to fully restore consumer confidence, with early numbers from China showing that apparel sales were still down by 50 to 60 percent in the first month after stores re-opened.
.
We expect different market categories to be impacted by the discounting wave to varying degrees. Mid-market brands and retailers will be hit hardest, as cash-strapped shoppers trade down to the value segment for essentials and middleclass consumers turn more to heavily discounted affordable luxury and premium goods."

Esta é a dura realidade que a indústria da moda em Portugal deve colocaer no centro da sua reflexão acerca do futuro. Que futuro? Que oportunidades? Que riscos?

É claro que vão surgir oportunidades com a retirada de mais produção da Ásia, mas que futuro será esse a competir com o norte de África, ou a Turquia ou a Roménia?

As verdadeiras oportunidades vão implicar dor, mas o choradinho das CIPs et all vão criar narrativas muito dramáticas em busca de apoios para suportar o passado... vai ser torrar dinheiro.

"funding a bridge to nowhere"?

Ontem ouvia no Facebook Camilo Lourenço chamar a atenção para a falta de escrutínio sobre uma série de temas relevantes para o nosso futuro próximo. Por exemplo, sobre o lay-off ouvem algum contraditório? Alguma voz contra?

Por aqui, nos últimos tempos escrevemos:

• Não vai ser nenhum 'lay-off' que as vai preparar para essa transição ( parte I e parte II)
• Sacrificar a economia, para salvar a Segurança Social?
• E a zombificação?

Ontem, no Wall Street Journal em "Europe Looks to End Paid Leave", apanhei:

"Europe’s strategy of placing tens of millions of workers on paid leave has succeeded in stemming the widespread unemployment seen in the U.S., but now governments across the continent are grappling with how to wean companies and workers off the support.
...
“We’ll have less clients that’s for sure. So that means we won’t need as many employees,” Ms. Querard said. Still, the restaurateur prefers to keep her staff on the state-subsidized payroll in the  hope that one day she will be ready to reactivate them all. “We just want to create a bridge.” For many governments, the matter boils down to whether they are funding a bridge to nowhere. If European firms become hooked on subsidies, it will be a costly addiction.
...
Mr. Scarpetta said governments across Europe are discussing how best to modify the programs. The point is to avoid propping up zombie companies that have no realistic chance of reviving their activities.
...
Lars Feld, chairman of the Council of Economic Experts that advises the German government, worries that if the crisis continues deep into 2021, the government’s wage support will keep alive firms that aren’t viable."

Para mim é claro:

A CIP dá mau nome à iniciativa privada.

"to move forward"

"the people who successfully negotiate their lives in the aftermath of trauma tend to follow well-worn pathways. Those paths run parallel to the two central ideas I’ve been developing. The first is: Want it, need it, have it. You have to desire something and engage in some activity to get it. You can’t give up. You can’t give in. This, of course, means that you get busy and get organized. The second idea is: See one, do one, teach one, which tells us how to go about achieving the first idea. Here, then, are 12 strategies that you can employ to move forward.
...
1. WANT IT, NEED IT, HAVE IT. Devote yourself passionately to an art, a craft, a musical instrument, a language, a horse, or your own education.
...
This step also helps you develop an internal locus of control, which reinforces the idea that you have some influence over your life...
2. BE HERE NOW. This is the strategy of mindfulness
...
The brain has evolved to give us mental models and behavioral scripts that allow us to function on autopilot. And in these times of always-on electronic communication, that tendency is exaggerated. Be here now means: Be quiet. Take time every day to tune out all the electronic noise, the chattering voices that clamor for attention, and then listen to your own mind and body. Tune in to The Stream. Putting in this effort to pay attention means that you’ll be much more likely to seize opportunities and avoid hazards. You may find an intuition, a gut feeling, a sixth sense that saves your life.
...
3. BE PATIENT. Everything takes eight times as long as it’s supposed to.
...
4. BE TOUGH. Learn to suffer well. Richard Tedeschi, a psychologist who treats post-traumatic stress, said that “to achieve the greatest psychological health, some kind of suffering is necessary.” ... In a world where some suffering is inevitable, the only sensible thing is to learn how to deal with it.
...
5. GET THE SMALL PICTURE. People who suffer do not have to suffer all the time.
...
6. PUT THINGS IN THEIR PLACE. Traumatic memories don’t go away. Rituals are one way of controlling when and how you experience them. If the memories are encapsulated in a ritual time and place, they are less able to torment you the rest of the time.
...
7. WORK, WORK, WORK. As Richard Mollica said, staying busy is the most effective means of adaptation after trauma.
...
So don’t sit around brooding on whatever’s eating you.
...
8. SEE ONE, DO ONE, TEACH ONE.
...
9. TOUCH SOMEONE. Staying socially connected is one of the most important and effective adaptations. This means staying close to family and friends and making a decision to be with people who have the right attitudes. Abundant research shows that people who are socially connected are healthier and live longer.
...
10. BE GRATEFUL. Whatever the survival event was, you’re here to deal with it. Maybe, as with a crippling injury, there is no end to that event. No matter how crazy your life seems at the moment, being alive is cause for celebration, for only the living can celebrate. And most people can find much more to enjoy than breathing in and breathing out. Above all, avoid self-pity. [Moi ici: Isto faz-me lembrar as empresas preocupadas porque não vão atingir os objectivos que em Dezembro de 2019 definiram para o ano de 2020. A minha resposta foi, o objectivo para 2020 é chegar ao fim vivo]
...
11. WALK THE WALK. Act as if you’re better. Find small things that you can do that give you a sense of being normal. ... “Even on days when I lacked self-confidence, I chose to put on a smile. I acted strong when I didn’t feel strong—and before long, I was strong!
...
12. LIFE IS DEEP; SHALLOW UP. Humor is essential, quieting the amygdala and reducing stress. Laugh at the world. Laugh at yourself. Having a strong circle of friends and family helps with this."

Trechos retirados de “Surviving Survival: The Art and Science of Resilience” de Laurence Gonzales

"it’s important to realize that we don’t get over it. We get on with it"

"in dealing with the aftermath of trauma, it’s important to realize that we don’t get over it. We get on with it.
...
She did one of the key things that survivors do in the aftermath: Trust the process. Let go of the outcome. Whatever happens, happens. Walk the walk. Pretend. Imagine. She gradually grew stronger. ...
And significantly, being engaged in directed action, carrying out a deliberate plan, gave her a new sense of control that she had been forced to abandon when she was an invalid. Her feelings became more predictable. The rational began to dominate as the peaks of high emotion moved into the background.
It is well known that what you do with the body deeply influences the way you think and feel. If you act strong, you feel stronger. If you act happy, you feel happier. If you move your facial muscles into an imitation of a smile for a time (say, by biting on a pencil), you gradually start to feel better.
...
How well a person does after a crisis has a lot to do with the attitude and personality she has developed over a lifetime. Eileen was lucky. Her focus, optimism, and capacity for hard work combined with her inborn tendencies and created a person who could take something really bad and turn it to her advantage. Several years later, looking back at the events of her life, Eileen reflected on how the experience had helped her reinvent herself.
...
“Rather than letting her experience define her life, she came to regard it as “a platform for growth.”

Trechos retirados de "Surviving Survival: The Art and Science of Resilience" de Laurence Gonzalez

Tendências

"The most focused companies use a variety of practices to align their organizations with a clear set of priorities. One such practice is having disciplined management meetings, including structuring the executive-team calendar to explicitly support strategic priorities.
...
Most companies also find that frequently—and formally—revisiting strategic priorities, a necessity during the COVID-19 crisis, is beneficial.
...
aligning with fewer (and bigger) priorities may also enable an organization to reset organizational and operating structures. Narrowing down priorities can afford organizations a chance to realign their business segments with the top priorities,
...
Many of the shifts in recent months represent a substantial acceleration of consumer trends that had already been in progress for some time. For instance, online shopping is up by 20 to 70 percent since the pandemic began, and supply chains are adapting rapidly. Store economics have been strained for some time, and we expect store footprints to continue to shrink.
...
Finally, the international spread of the coronavirus has accelerated the premium on flexibility in supply chains, including in partner terms and sourcing (particularly nearshoring).
...
Up to 40 percent of consumers have switched stores and brands during the crisis, and many may choose to keep their new habits.
...
The COVID-19 crisis has dramatically increased experimentation with flexible workforce models. Use of video-conference applications has risen by a factor of five to seven, and organizations have become more adept at working remotely.
...
We have also noted the emergence of expedited and more focused decision making across consumer organizations. In our survey, more than 80 percent of executives said that decisions during the COVID-19 crisis are being made faster than before the crisis."

Trechos retirados de "Consumer organization and operating models for the next normal"

Não vai ser nenhum 'lay-off' que as vai preparar para essa transição (parte II)

Parte I.

Quem sofre com os stressors é pressionado a testar alternativas.

"What doesn’t kill me makes me stronger
Shelter in place is a mass extinction event for many industries. Not every business will survive. But what will emerge are businesses that diversified their offerings better positioned to withstand future volatility by providing complementary channels and offerings. And they’re opening up new ways service providers can scale to more customers.
...
The Seven-Step Small Business Pivot Process:

• Create an MVP or MVS, Minimum Viable Service

• Do Customer Discovery

• Rapidly test your idea

• Refine your offering

• Market on all your channels

• Rely on tried-and-true tools

• Share with the community"

Trechos retirados de "Seven Steps to Small Business Recovery"

Sacrificar a economia, para salvar a Segurança Social?

Stressors are information. Uma frase que aprendi com Nassim Taleb.

Na última semana tenho pensado no papel do prolongamento do lay-off.

Qual deve ser o papel da figura do 'lay-off'?

Uma coisa é um choque contra a parede e ser preciso tempo para ganhar fôlego, e perceber qual o novo contexto. Outra coisa é perceber que o contexto mudou profundamente e que não vai haver um retorno elástico porque se entrou numa zona de deformação plástica.

A partir do momento em que se percebe que a deformação é plástica, se os turistas não vêm sofre(m):

• a hotelaria;
• o alojamento local;
• a restauração;
• o aluguer de automóveis;
• a limpeza de casas;
• os fornecedores do canal horeca (carne, peixe, legumes, vinho, ...)
• ...

Manter toda esta rede de trabalhadores em 'lay-off' é adiar o inevitável, é mascarar uma situação, é atrasar a procura de uma nova posição competitiva. 

"Stressors are information", são sinais para calibrarmos a quantidade relativa de exploration versus exploitation. Perante os stressors há os que os agarram e, como os ratos do livro "Quem mexeu no meu queijo", interagem com a nova realidade. E há os que, como o Pigarro do mesmo livro, resistem à mudança e solicitam o apoio e a protecção dos governos, gerando toda uma série de doenças por causa do veneno do activismo. Como escrevi na passada Quinta-feira, "Discovery beats planning". Sem stressors, poucos são os que se metem ao caminho, e menos ainda são os que estão dispostos a cortar com muito ou pouco do passado para ganhar uma oportunidade de ter futuro. Isto fez-me lembrar, as "127 horas" de Aron Ralston no Blue John Canyon.

No livro "Antifragile" no mesmo período em que Nassim Taleb usa a palavra stressors também se lê:

"Just as spending a month in bed leads to muscle atrophy, complex systems are weakened or even killed when deprived of stressors....The economic class doesn't realize an economy lives by stressors rather than by top-down control."

Em Janeiro de 2016 escrevi:

Existe um problema de fundo: talvez a nossa forma de trabalhar já não se ajuste à realidade que entretanto mudou.
.
Esse problema de fundo manifesta-se em sintomas: preços baixos; excesso de produção; ...
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Perante um problema de fundo devíamos optar por uma solução de fundo. Contudo, é mais fácil, é mais rápido, é menos doloroso para nós, procurar um remendo que mascara a situação e diminui a dor provocada pelos sintomas. Só que o remendo gera efeitos secundários que se vão acumular e acumular até que a comporta vai rebentar e não mais será possível recorrer a um remendo... terá de se ir em busca de uma solução de fundo.
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O tempo de acumulação dos efeitos secundários é o tempo em que o pau vai e vem e as costas folgam. Quando a comporta rebenta, os que ficam com a criança nos braços são os que são chamados de quererem ir "além da troika".
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Quando os políticos se metem nestas cenas, temos o caldo entornado. Fragilistas encartados e com bolsos muito fundos, à custa dos contribuintes, têm uma capacidade de acumular efeitos secundários muito para além do seu consulado e de moldar todas as mentes a este arquétipo de reacção a problemas de fundo com base em remendos.

Em termos de economia estamos falados, e a economia é que conta. Outra possibilidade passa por sacrificar a economia, para salvar a Segurança Social. Basta imaginar que o dinheiro europeu vá pagar 'lay-off', mas não subsídios de desemprego.

Para reflexão (parte II)

Parte I.

"Covid-19 could spur the biggest economic contraction since World War II, hitting every sector from finance to hospitality. Yet fashion, due to its discretionary nature, is particularly vulnerable. The average market capitalisation of apparel, fashion and luxury players dropped almost 40 percent between the start of January and March 24, 2020 — a much steeper decline than that of the overall stock market.
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We estimate that revenues for the global fashion industry (apparel and footwear sectors) will contract by 27 to 30 percent in 2020 year-on-year, although the industry could regain positive growth of 2 to 4 percent in 2021. For the personal luxury goods industry (luxury fashion, luxury accessories, luxury watches, fine jewellery and high-end beauty), we estimate a global revenue contraction of 35 to 39 percent in 2020 year-on-year, but positive growth of 1 to 4 percent in 2021. If stores remain closed for two months, McKinsey analysis approximates that 80 percent of publicly listed fashion companies in Europe and North America will be in financial distress. Combined with the McKinsey Global Fashion Index (MGFI) analysis, which found that 56 percent of global fashion companies were not earning their cost of capital in 2018, we expect a large number of global fashion companies to go bankrupt in the next 12 to 18 months.
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The crisis is affecting our daily lives, instilling anxiety and uncertainty in the minds of almost everyone. Indeed, consumer pessimism about the economy is widespread, with 75 percent of shoppers in the US and Europe believing that their financial situation will be impacted negatively for more than two months.
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Even online sales have declined 5 to 20 percent across Europe, 30 to 40 percent in the US and 15 to 25 percent in China."

Vamos ficar todos bem! 

Trechos retirados de "The State of Fashion 2020 - Coronavirus Update"

Time Compression

Um dos erros que cometi no início da quarentena, ao trabalhar com uma empresa, foi concentrar a atenção na semana seguinte, na sobrevivência.

Ontem, ao ler

“Time Compression
90-days. The world of decision-making is reduced to choices that make an impact within 90 days or less. This pandemic exploded the ideas of one-year planning and long-term investing in the business. Companies for the foreseeable future will be concerned with the near-term choices that are necessary to survive and potentially secure an advantage in their market. Soft savings and long-term improvements will not generate interest from top-level executives.”

A atenção deve ser concentrada no médio longo prazo. Sempre!
Não é a fazer máscaras e viseiras que as empresas vão ter futuro.

BTW, os trechos sublinhados fazem-me lembrar Schaffer (aqui também).

Trecho retirado de “How to Sell In Place: Closing Deals in the New Normal”

Para reflexão!

Material para reflexão dos fabricantes portugueses da moda.

[Moi ici: Acerca da data do início dos saldos em França] "Débuteront-ils le 24 juin, le 15 juillet ou le 19 août ? La date des soldes d’été fait débat entre les professionnels et le gouvernement. Le sujet illustre la question vitale que se posent nombre d’entreprises au sortir du confinement: que faire des stocks de marchandise non vendue ? Les commerces dits « non essentiels », frappés par l’interdiction administrative d’ouverture, sont cette fois en première ligne, et notamment les vendeurs d’habillement.
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Le 24 juin était la date prévue avant la crise du coronavirus. Les grandes chaînes de vêtements, les Zara et autres Galeries Lafayette, sont en faveur du statu quo. « La saison est perdue, alors perdue pour perdue autant écouler nos stocks rapidement », explique un cadre des grands magasins, lesquels n’ont toujours pas obtenu l’autorisation de rouvrir leurs navires amiraux du boulevard Haussmann, à Paris, et se retrouvent avec presque quatre mois d’invendus.
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Les grands de la mode veulent reconstituer leur trésorerie. Les petits, eux, veulent reconstituer leurs marges."

Trechos retirados de "Le débat sur la date des soldes pose la question des stocks du confinement"

"Deux mois de stocks de vêtements du printemps et de l’été à écouler: les boutiques d’habillement sont dans les starting-blocks pour tenter de sauver ce qui peut encore l’être. Dans les commerces indépendants, leur montant est estimé à 2,5 milliards d’euros. Une montagne! Et la première semaine de réouverture ne laisse guère d’espoir… « Le chiffre d’affaires est en recul de 35 %, comparé à la même période l’an dernier. La fréquentation est faible,
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Toutes les études vont dans le même sens. Selon Opinion Way, dans les « 30 jours suivant la fin du confinement, 45 % des Français comptent réduire leur budget ».
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En plus des contraintes financières, après du chômage partiel, les consommateurs ont peur d’aller dans les boutiques. Certains ont aussi décidé de changer leur façon de consommer, « car certains achats n’étaient pas utiles ». C’est sur Internet que cette avalanche de promotions a débuté. « Pour la mode féminine, les ventes online, ces deux derniers mois, ont attiré 20 % de nouveaux clients, qui n’avaient jamais acheté en ligne »
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Ce qui n’est pas le cas des enseignes, à petits prix, qui commandent de gros volumes en Chine. « Les stratégies diffèrent. Certains veulent tout liquider tout de suite, et d’autres restocker des bouts de collections qu’ils revendront à plein prix pour préserver leurs marges», remarque Pierre-François Le Louët.
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Pour faire baisser leurs coûts, des marques et des distributeurs ont aussi coupé dans les collections de l’hiver prochain. « Nous avons annulé entre 15 % à 20 % de commandes, en réduisant le nombre de références et de couleurs, reprend Emmanuel Pradère. De toute façon, comme les usines viennent de rouvrir et sont surchargées, nous aurions eu des retards de livraison ». Enfin, pour limiter les invendus, les marques comptent sur les « outlet » et la revente à des sites en ligne de déstockage, comme venteprivée.com (Veepee)." 

Trechos retirados de "Les griffes de mode ont une montagne de stock à écluser"