"Covid-19 could spur the biggest economic contraction since World War II, hitting every sector from finance to hospitality. Yet fashion, due to its discretionary nature, is particularly vulnerable. The average market capitalisation of apparel, fashion and luxury players dropped almost 40 percent between the start of January and March 24, 2020 — a much steeper decline than that of the overall stock market.Vamos ficar todos bem!
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We estimate that revenues for the global fashion industry (apparel and footwear sectors) will contract by 27 to 30 percent in 2020 year-on-year, although the industry could regain positive growth of 2 to 4 percent in 2021. For the personal luxury goods industry (luxury fashion, luxury accessories, luxury watches, fine jewellery and high-end beauty), we estimate a global revenue contraction of 35 to 39 percent in 2020 year-on-year, but positive growth of 1 to 4 percent in 2021. If stores remain closed for two months, McKinsey analysis approximates that 80 percent of publicly listed fashion companies in Europe and North America will be in financial distress. Combined with the McKinsey Global Fashion Index (MGFI) analysis, which found that 56 percent of global fashion companies were not earning their cost of capital in 2018, we expect a large number of global fashion companies to go bankrupt in the next 12 to 18 months.
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The crisis is affecting our daily lives, instilling anxiety and uncertainty in the minds of almost everyone. Indeed, consumer pessimism about the economy is widespread, with 75 percent of shoppers in the US and Europe believing that their financial situation will be impacted negatively for more than two months.
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Even online sales have declined 5 to 20 percent across Europe, 30 to 40 percent in the US and 15 to 25 percent in China."
Trechos retirados de "The State of Fashion 2020 - Coronavirus Update"
2 comentários:
O artigo analisa só a parte económica, mas do ponto de vista ambiental, penso que é muito positivo este abrandamento no excesso de consumo. Roupa, que acaba por ser quase descartável, a custos que não nos custa descartar é muito séc XX. Temos que inverter, nós enquanto sociedade, e em particular as empresas e empreendedores!
Anda muita gente do sector da moda a escrever sobre a loucura do actual sistema em que as pessoas compram em Fevereiro o que vão usar em Agosto. Além disso, é a herança de comprar na Ásia para consumir na Europa/EUA (janela de mais de 100 dias desde a encomenda até à montra/prateleira) que gera o descartável e a roupa não vendida usada como combustível nas incineradoras para produzir electricidade.
Acredito que este choque vai provocar um repensar da indústria, a entrada de novos players e a morte de muitos vai abrir a porta a mais modelos de negócio e, talvez alterar a situação ambientalmente pavorosa.
Obrigado
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