Curiosidade do dia

Jornalismo com futuro

Ao longo dos anos escrevo aqui acerca da erosão e decadência do modelo económico dos jornalismo pago pela publicidade:

• "the rebound in the paid-for model"

Acredito que o jornalismo regressará baseado num novo modelo de negócio baseado na subscrição paga e no serviço aos clientes underserved. E foi o que encontrei ao ler "The Local News Business Model":

"In short, the business model [Moi ici: Baseado na publicidade, apelando à maior audiência possível] drove the content, just as it drove every other piece of the business. It follows, though, that if the content bundle no longer makes sense — which it doesn’t in the slightest — that the business model probably doesn’t make sense either. This is the problem with newspapers: every aspect of their operations, from costs to content, is optimized for a business model that is obsolete. To put it another way, an obsolete business model means an obsolete business. There is nothing to be saved.
...
It is very important to clearly define what a subscriptions means. First, it’s not a donation: it is asking a customer to pay money for a product. What, then, is the product? It is not, in fact, any one article (a point that is missed by the misguided focus on micro-transactions). Rather, a subscriber is paying for the regular delivery of well-defined value.
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This last point is at the crux of why many ad-based newspapers will find it all but impossible to switch to a real subscription business model. When asking people to pay, quality matters far more than quantity, and the ratio matters: a publication with 1 valuable article a day about a well-defined topic will more easily earn subscriptions than one with 3 valuable articles and 20 worthless ones covering a variety of subjects. Yet all too many local newspapers, built for an ad-based business model that calls for daily content to wrap around ads, spend their limited resources churning out daily filler even though those ads no longer exist."

O artigo continua e reforça a necessidade de uma forte disciplina de corte:

"It’s also worth noting what a subscription business model does not — must not — include:
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Content that is widely available elsewhere. That means no national or international news (except what has a local impact, and even that is questionable), no non-local business content, no lifestyle section.
Non-journalistic costs centers.
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This is perhaps the easiest change to make, and the hardest for newspaper advocates to accept. A subscription business is just that: a business that must, through its content, earn ongoing revenue from customers. That means understanding what those customers want, and what they don’t. It means focusing on the user experience, and the content mix. And it means selling by every member of the organization." 

Contentor Amarelo

Terminou ontem a minha relação com o Contentor Amarelo.

Terminou porque desapareceu o job to be done que passou a ser servido pelo meu novo escritório de trabalho.

No entanto, não posso deixar de elogiar o serviço, a localização, a simpatia. Fiquei fã!

Não se trata de publicidade paga, trata-se de gratidão pura e simples.

OBRIGADO!

Mongo e o fim do marketing?

Forget Marketing, here comes #Customering: Great talk by @joepine: "there are no markets, only individual customers", suggesting new focus! pic.twitter.com/AnDnrHDPYd

— Frank Piller (@masscustom) May 12, 2017

Exactly! "Markets" are a convenient fiction for companies that do not treat customers as the truly unique individuals they are. https://t.co/IXI35Hhj56

— Joe Pine (@joepine) May 12, 2017

Em linha com o que se escreve sobre o marketing de Mongo em "Decentralization and Localization of Production: The Organizational and Economic Consequences of Additive Manufacturing (3D Printing)". Recordar a série "Acerca de Mongo"

Pensa que só acontece aos outros? (parte II)

Parte I.

Recordar o "Aon Global Risk Management Survey" de 2017 e o Top 10 dos riscos:

Hearing reports of GPs affected by #ramsomware attack because apparentl CCGs and CSU turning off IT system on mass as a "precaution".

— Ben Heather (@BHeatherJourno) May 12, 2017

#Ramsomware #WannaCry Ciberataque de gran impacto. Lo que estamos viviendo hoy me temo que será, cada vez, más habitual.

— Luis Miguel Sánchez (@sanchezvscrime) May 12, 2017

New ransomware attack that hit over 45,000 computers in 74 countries may have used leaked NSA hacking tool https://t.co/qomsvYzUy0 pic.twitter.com/mJ2ffpKT9d

— Forbes (@Forbes) May 12, 2017

• Empresas portuguesas alvo de ataque informático em larga escala
• Ataque informático a empresas portuguesas terá tido origem no Brasil
• A Massive Ransomware 'Explosion' Is Hitting Targets All Over the World

Curiosidade do dia

Já começou. pic.twitter.com/jGSlcqqUGP

— InsóniasEmCarvão (@insoniascarvao) May 12, 2017

Acerca da Educação em Mongo (parte II)

Numa caminhada antes do jantar de ontem li "Why Malcolm Gladwell, Seth Godin, Google, and a Harvard Expert Say Colleges and Universities Are Broken". Depois, ao jantar celebramos a conclusão pela minha filha de um curso sobre programação em Android na Udacity. Às tantas, sem nada combinarmos, acabámos a concordar com o artigo.

"- Os cursos como o meu (área da informática na Faculdade de Ciências) não vão ter grande futuro em competição com os cursos super-práticos feitos via internet."

Alguns sublinhados:

"Google doesn't require a college degree, based on research showing no correlation between academic credentials and performance on the job. And Google has had its pick of top students from top programs at top universities.
...
One student told me that a friend of hers had left Yale because she found the school "stifling to the parts of yourself that you'd call a soul.""

Em vez de regurgitar definições e demonstrar teoremas, o curso da Udacity desenvolve-se ao ritmo de cada um e é uma sucessão de desafios práticos que se têm de cumprir.

BTW,  recordar na Parte I a cena da academia que ainda não ensina os seus alunos a programar para Android porque não saberia o que fazer com os professores que tem no quadro.

Como é que a sua empresa lida com estas mudanças?

"think about selling a transformation"

"The starting point of most competitive analysis is a question: Who is your competition? That’s because most companies view their competition as another brand, product, or service. But smart leaders and organizations go broader.
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The question is not who your competition is but what it is. And the answer is this: Your competition is any and every obstacle your customers encounter along their journeys to solving the human, high-level problems your company exists to solve.
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Sure, someone in your company needs to understand the marketplace: who your competition is, what other products are on the market, and how they are doing, at a basic level. But there’s a point at which paying attention to other companies and what they’re doing interferes with your team’s ability to immerse itself in the world of your consumer. Focusing on competitive products and companies often leads to “me-too” products, which purport to compete with or iterate on something that customers might not have liked much in the first place.
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First, rethink what you sell. Most companies think they sell a product. To transcend strictly one-time, transactional relationships with your customers, your company must think about selling a transformation: a journey from a problematic status quo to the new levels and possibilities that will unfurl after the behavior change you help make happen.
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Next, rethink your customers. They are not just the people who have purchased your product or the people who follow you on Facebook. Your customers are all the people who grapple with the problem your business exists to solve.
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Now, focus on their problems. Engage in customer research, online and in the real world, to understand and document their journeys. I don’t mean their customer life cycle with your brand. Map out your (redefined) customer’s journey from having the problem you exist to solve to no longer having that problem. That may be the journey from unhealthy to healthy living, or from being broke to being a good steward of their finances."

Recordar o Dick Dastardly e os observadores de motards.

Trechos retirados de "Obsess Over Your Customers, Not Your Rivals"

"To earn economic profits"

Business strategy is the way in which a firm chooses to differentiate itself from its competitors in a way that results in serving its customers’ needs more profitably than its competitors.
Being more profitable than competitors in a given market is a tall order. It implies earning true economic profits, not simply accounting profits. How are accounting profits different from economic profits?
Accounting profits are those found on the profit and loss statements. They are the difference between a firm’s revenues and its costs. Every firm must achieve accounting profits in order to survive. And while every corporation seeks to survive, survival alone is insufficient in today’s competitive environment.[Moi ici: Recordar "Floating is insufficient"]
...
Economic profits are much more difficult to earn than simple accounting profits. Economic profits imply that the firm is earning a higher return on capital deployed in comparison to all other invest- ment opportunities. In an economist’s terms, economic profits are accounting profits less opportunity costs. Earning economic profits isn’t just about making money, it is about making more money by doing the things the firm chooses to do than by doing anything else. The results of economic profits are either growth opportunities for the firm or higher returns to the investors.
To earn economic profits, the firm must, in some way, be better than its competitors. It must have some form of a competitive advantage that enables it to serve its chosen customers more profitably than its competitors do.
This competitive advantage will be reflected in how the firm interacts with its customers, competitors, and itself."

Trechos retirados de "Pricing Done Right"

Cuidado com a composição dos subgrupos

Há tempos fiz uma auditoria ao sistema de gestão da qualidade de uma empresa. Um dos objectivos da qualidade para 2017 dizia respeito ao preço médio das vendas.

Estranhei que a meta para 2017 fosse inferior ao desempenho de 2016. Perguntei porquê.

- Trabalhamos essencialmente para um nicho. Este ano arranjamos um cliente que não corresponde a esse nicho, com preços mais baixos, um artigo mais simples, para produzirmos numa altura em que temos pouco trabalho. Por isso, é natural que o preço médio de venda baixe.

Recomendação deixada: Não misturar os preços praticados para o cliente de preço com os preços praticados para os clientes de nicho.

Recordar "Interpretar as mensagens das cartas de controlo":

"é importante não inflacionar a variabilidade dentro de um subgrupo, tal consegue-se evitando misturar na mesma amostra coisas que se sabem ser diferentes"

Curiosidade do dia

@pauloferreira1 Sempre. E em Beja o Estado investiu e quem falhou foram os investimentos privados. Para exemplo é mal escolhido. Só isso.

— MCF (@MCF977) May 10, 2017

Já imagino o capitão: a culpa do TGV ñ ter resultado é dos portugueses pq se recusam a usá-lo

— Carlos P da Cruz (@ccz1) May 11, 2017

O delirio

Biologia, economia e diversidade

Parte I.

"If we stand back from the evolution of life on Earth and view it as a whole, a number of patterns are apparent.
2.1. DiversificationAn obvious trend is that living processes have diversified as evolution proceeded. When life first began on Earth, it was limited to exploiting only a tiny proportion of available free energy sources under a very restricted range of environmental conditions. From there living processes have diversified progressively as evolution unfolded, spreading across the planet, adapting to an ever- widening range of environmental conditions and exploiting more and more sources of free energy. This trend towards increasing diversification has continued up until the present with the emergence of humans, albeit now mainly through the processes of cultural evolution, rather than through gene-based adaptation and speciation."

O que é Mongo senão uma manifestação desta tendência?

BTW:

Any strategy is (at best) only temporarily correct.

— Clayton Christensen (@claychristensen) May 8, 2017

O século XX e a sua aposta na escala ficará na história como uma espécie de analogia do Jurássico geológico com os seus dinossauros.

Para reflexão

Excelente texto a merecer ser lido por muita gente: "Why CMM, ISO and other Quality initiatives don’t capture the hearts and minds….":

"Many organizations fail in their quest for Total Quality Service, not because their leaders don’t understand the conceptual or technical requirements for achieving it, but because they don’t realize that the heart of the service journey is spiritual rather than mechanical. They will bureaucratize the whole thing and make it look like every other “program.”
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Too many quality initiatives are sterile, intellectual and administrative from start to finish; they don’t appeal to the human heart. They are based on a view of the organization as an apparatus rather than a society. They don’t start with human energy as the focus of change."

Quando se passa da oposição para a situação (parte II)

Parte I.

Gostava de estar frente a frente com o académico Caldeira Cabral, não com o sofista político Caldeira Cabral, para que me pudesse responder à pergunta:

O que é que mudou desde Dezembro de 2014 para que tenha passado de "o copo está vazio para o copo está a transbordar"?

Em Dezembro de 2014 Caldeira Cabral escrevia "Desaceleração das exportações: negar este problema não é uma boa estratégia". Agora, o mesmo Caldeira Cabral afirma:

• Ministro elogia empresas que fazem "acontecer o impossível"

Também podemos recuar a Abril de 2014 e a "O problema é a procura, não a oferta" e ver quando é que começo a discordar de Caldeira Cabral. Nesse tal frente a frente também gostava de lhe perguntar  como concilia o que defendia com o que afirma agora sobre os resultados das exportações.

É triste a gelatinicidade destas personagens.

Para contextualizar:

• Exportações e importações sobem 17,1% e 15,3% no 1.º trimestre
• Exportações têm margem para continuar a crescer
• Exportações e importações voltam a disparar em Março

Gelo fino (parte II)

Parte I.

Julgo que a parte I está completamente relacionada com este postal de Seth Godin:

"A sailboat without a sail might float.
.
For a long time, in fact.
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But without a sail, it can't go anywhere, can't fulfill its function.
.
Floating is insufficient." 

E já agora com o satisficing.

No fundo, o que fazem praticamente todos os governos, com a excepção do alemão e pouco mais, em vez de ir à raiz, chutam a lata para mais à frente, empurram com a barriga, "gerem a dívida" e quem vier atrás que se amanhe.

Curiosidade do dia

Como digo há anos: somos pastoreados por jogadores amadores de bilhar.

Gente que quando prepara uma jogada, a próxima, esquece-se das consequências dessa jogada, das reacções que vai gerar. É o velho "Acham isto normal? Ou a inconsistência estratégica! Ou jogar bilhador como um amador!"

Em Março passado tínhamos: "Brexit: Costa vai criar unidade para pensar como atrair empresas britânicas". Reforçado na semana passada com "Portugal procura atrair empresas instaladas no Reino Unido"

Ao mesmo tempo, temos ministros a lançar ameaças para quem queira vir para cá instalar empresas: "Vieira da Silva admite imposto sobre lucros das empresas para financiar Segurança Social"

A menos que claro, essas tenham um tratamento diferenciado, como de costume.

O mundo mudou!

Recordar "What’s Going On With Retail?":

"Macy’s, JC Penny, Nordstrom, and other retailers are vertically integrated operations. They have benefitted (and are now tied up by) supply chains that extend from factories in Asia (or wherever) to their stores in New York City (or wherever), including extremely complex logistics, transport, finance, partnerships, and production. They rely on economies of scale and a predictable market, and a timeframe of months to get ideas to market. However, in the new economy we have careened into — the postnormal — things work differently.
...
the deepest impact of such an economic shift are not immediate, but cumulative. The problems inherent in their complexity make it difficult for them to compete with more agile competitors, such as the niche of ‘fast fashion’. When new fashion trends start to emerge, smaller, more focused and nimble fashion brands can get new products to market in weeks, not months"

E agora um exemplo que parece retirado de uma PME têxtil portuguesa a seguir as orientações deste blogger:

"Reformation is a fast fashion brand, constantly changing its product mix to keep up with the latest trends. But founder Yael Aflalo has upended each step of her supply chain to make it leaner, more nimble, and more environmentally friendly. A team of data scientists keeps track of best-selling outfits and conveys this information to Bailey, who is tasked with producing garments based on real-time demand. This ensures that the brand is delivering products that customers love, while eliminating wasted inventory. “Today, we’re making 300 maxi dresses,” Bailey says. “Yesterday, we were making T-shirts. From a logistical and supply-chain perspective, that’s a very complicated thing to do. It’s a challenge, in the best possible way.”

...
The shift is clear: These days, instead of massive conglomerates making generic products, a wave of tech-savvy startups are choosing to manufacture in America. Their reasons for going local often have little to do with patriotism. They’re primarily searching for better ways to create high-quality, state-of-the-art products and deliver them to customers faster than competitors making merchandise overseas.
...
“The world has changed.”
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The startups that have committed to U.S.-based manufacturing understand this. They were laying the groundwork for a new phase in American manufacturing long before Trump started campaigning on his America First platform—and they didn’t model their factories on those of the past. They’ve been coming up with new, innovative approaches to production that address current demands and challenges.
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The question is whether this new generation of startups will remain niche, forever appealing to a small subset of wealthy consumers, or whether they can scale and stay in it for the long haul. [Moi ici: Sempre há a lição alemã] To have an impact on the economy, these brands will need to produce at greater volumes, drive down prices, and employ more workers. They will also have to reckon with the shifting technology landscape, including Amazon’s dominance of the e-commerce market, the shifting rules of engagement with consumers on social media, and advances in automation that are upending manufacturing as we know it. Can they do it?"

Trechos retirados de "The Made in America Movement Driven By Innovation, Not Nationalism"

Sintomas de uma revolução em curso

Sintomas de uma revolução em curso:

• Cortefiel dispara sus pérdidas hasta 24 millones en plena reorganización
• Zalando crece un 23,1% en el primer trimestre y gana un 10,9% más
• El Corte Inglés se suma a la fiebre de la impresión 3D y lanza Mimic Eyewear
• Amid Brick-and-Mortar Travails, a Tipping Point for Amazon in Apparel
• New Life for America’s Dead Malls
• How amusement features in mixed-use projects are driving the 'experience economy'

Cá chegará, cá chegará.

Acerca de Mongo (parte VI)

Parte I, parte II, parte III, parte IV e parte V.

"AM will present substantial legal and regulatory challenges. For example, what is the role of the Food and Drug Administration if medical devices are developed and manufactured by a decentralized network? [Moi ici: E feitos à medida "advancing population health and precision medicine solutions for personalized care"] How can products be effectively traced to their origin? Who is liable for damages for a malfunctioning product? Numerous intellectual property issues arise in the context of this decentralized technology, with ideas and software developed by individual producers, consumers, and networks, and with vast personal production opportunities.
...
Technological developments in energy production complement AM and will deepen the transformation of the economy toward localization and decentralization. The energy sector has two important sources of economies of scale: large power generators that are more efficient than small ones, and the power grid that allows aggregation of energy demand. Improvements in solar and wind energy generation at the community level may in the future allow for a departure from large power generators, and the grid may be complemented or replaced by local energy storage solutions.
...
The transition from a TM-based national and global economy to one grounded in AM technology presents many opportunities for social and economic progress. However, the shift will be difficult and even destabilizing for some economies. In particular, substantial economic and social dislocation may be experienced by developing economies that at present produce goods that in the future will be 3D printed in the countries of consumption.[Moi ici: Poderá vir a ser um problema para países como Portugal, envelhecidos, despovoados, e cada vez mais dependentes de exportações. China "seguiu o nosso conselho" de 2008 e já está a caminho de outro paradigma]
...
However, there are strong economic and political forces that will seek to limit the extent of decentralization and localization, especially if accompanied by decentralized and local ownership, as we expect will be the case."

Excelente texto!

"driver of productivity differences" (parte II)

Parte I.

Há tempos ao pesquisar algo aqui no blogue cheguei a este postal "estado, estado, estado,...".

A matéria desse postal é reduzida a quase nada quando se pega num país, quando se escolhe um mesmo sector da economia, CAE, e se aprecia o panorama de variabilidade no desempenho das empresas, apesar do Estado, das leis, dos trabalhadores, serem os mesmos.

Aqui no blogue gosto de chamar a atenção para a importância da idiossincrasia no desempenho das empresas:

• "traced to factors under management control"
• "muitas vezes escandalizo-me com a forma como os economistas tratam a economia real"
• Estratégia não é matemática nem física newtoniana (parte II)
• Acerca da idiossincrasia nas empresas
• A importância da estratégia, para o bem ou para o mal (parte II)

Por isso, recomendo a leitura de "Good Managers, Not Machines, Drive Productivity Growth":

"When people discuss what drives long-run productivity, they usually focus on technical change. But productivity is about more than robots, new drugs and self-driving vehicles.
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a huge number of statistical analyses and case studies of the impact of new technologies on firm performance have shown that there is a massive variation in its impact. What’s much more important than the amount spent on fancy tech is the way managerial practices are used in the firms that implement the changes.
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look at the management scores across countries. They are highly correlated with GDP per capita. In fact, almost a third of the cross-country gaps in productivity are explained by management practices.
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the economic environment is not destiny. Organizations can heal themselves. Firms need to be honest with themselves – many simply do not realize that there is much room for improvement. They need to benchmark themselves rigorously and seek out ways to change, even if this involves external advice."

 Qual é a mensagem do mainstream dos governos, dos políticos, dos media, das associações patronais?

Coitadinhos dos empresários, têm de ser ajudados, têm de ser apoiados, ... olha aqui está o Vosso Salvador: o governo de turno!

A propósito daquele "They need to benchmark themselves rigorously" recordar "Satisficing"