"This article explores some of the implications of large-scale adoption of AM. [Moi ici: Additive Manufacturing = impressão 3D] This is a predictive, and not a descriptive, article.
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Our analysis points to a plausible scenario of future organizational and economic changes; however, the numerous contingencies that bear on this scenario may produce a different outcome than the one we envision here.
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Scale economies are among the strongest forces shaping the landscape of business. [Moi ici: A base para a economia do século XX] High volume decreases unit costs through learning, bargaining power, spread of fixed costs and overhead, capacity utilization, technology access, container utilization, and more. Having a larger market share means improved productivity and lower average cost. As Alfred Chandler has emphasized, this relationship drives the concentration of industries and the size of organizations. [Moi ici: Recordar os encontros da Junqueira e "Mas claro, eu só sou um anónimo engenheiro da província"] Organizations that operate below the minimum efficient scale are driven out of the market or are acquired; economies of scale serve as barriers to entry for new firms. Therefore, any technological change that impacts scale economies should be carefully studied for its organizational and economic implications.[Moi ici: Por isso é que a tríade e a troika, e a direita e a esquerda, não adivinharam que as PME dos sectores transaccionáveis não precisariam de baixar salários ou de ter uma moeda da treta para aumentar a sua competitividade. Ver abaixo o texto (1)]
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AM (3D printing) may reverse, for the first time in centuries, the march to larger scale and can therefore revolutionize the organizational and economic landscape.[Moi ici: A tal hipótese que as consultoras grandes "se esquecem" de comunicar aos seus clientes, as multinacionais, as empresas grandes]
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If the costs of 3D printing a product are not much higher than the unit costs associated with the minimum efficient scale of TM, many smaller firms will have room to compete in a market. Particularly in industries where customers value variety and customization, product life cycles are short, and delivery lead times are critical, AM can already be a more efficient technology for production than TM, since each of these factors reduces the importance of leveraging traditional scale economies in the market. Since firms using AM have no need to find distant buyers to achieve the necessary scale for production, transportation costs will become a stronger force affecting the industrial organization, leading to sales that are more focused on local and regional markets in relation to the manufacturing site. [Moi ici: Já ouviram alguém falar no refluxo da globalização, no flop futuro da canal do Panamá? Cuidado com Sines!] This localization of production can transform marketing and sales, where today there are substantial economies of scale. International trade in parts and finished goods will decline as a result. Wholesale trade will diminish greatly. The distance between those responsible for designing and manufacturing the product and the end-consumer will be shortened. Supply chains will decrease in length and breadth as well; fewer companies will be necessary to bring a product to market.[Moi ici: O que sempre temos escrito sobre o aumento das interacções, sobre a co-criação, sobre a proximidade]
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In sum, AM may well usher in the third industrial revolution that will have far reaching organizational, economic, and social consequences. This revolution will unravel much faster than the first two. Possibly within a generation, local development, local production and consumption, and a more decentralized economy will prevail, and individuality and creativity will flourish. However, this upheaval will imply major disruptions in labor markets.[Moi ici: Outra previsão deste blogue: empresas mais pequenas e fim do emprego como o conhecemos. O fim do que foi criado com a Revolução Industrial, "It's a makers world"]
Trechos retirados de Março de 2017 da California Mangement Review em "Decentralization and Localization of Production: The Organizational and Economic Consequences of Additive Manufacturing..."
(1)"O desempenho das exportações portuguesas em 2016 traduziu-se num novo ganho de quota de mercado, o que sublinha a capacidade competitiva das empresas portuguesas nos mercados internacionais. A progressiva orientação da economia portuguesa para a produção de bens e serviços transacionáveis no exterior constitui um traço muito positivo do ajustamento da estrutura produtiva, que se iniciou antes da última crise económica e financeira internacional."Trecho (1): Banco de Portugal, Boletim Económico, Maio de 2017
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