Qual é o verdadeiro produto que a nossa agricultura pode oferecer?

Li "Authenticity, Repurposed, in a Mason Jar" e ao reflectir sobre:

"an aversion to processed food was intensifying. More people became focused on self-sufficiency and eking out as much value as they could from what they bought — and at a reasonable cost.
...
“Everywhere I look as I study consumers, I see this growing quest for more and more control,” Ms. Koehn says. “Control not only over where stuff comes from and what it’s made of, but how it’s made.”
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The personalized food movement, as Mr. Scherzinger calls it, began to emerge. According to him, 82 percent of Jarden Home Brands’ customers have their own gardens, and many patronize farmers’ markets."

Recuei até Janeiro deste ano e a "Se a tribo dos Qimondos imaginasse..." e a Junho último com "A marca Portugal"...
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Por fim, relacionei tudo isto com um excelente texto que li durante a minha caminhada matinal no último Domingo "Snail Slime Pricing – Why do the unscalable thing?".
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O primeiro artigo, o dos trechos acima, aponta para consumidores que querem autenticidade e querem controlar o que comem. O segundo artigo aborda a economia agro-alimentar de um país como a Dinamarca, muito bem sucedida mas por ter apontado no caminho da industrialização maciça e na tecnologia de ponta. O terceiro artigo refere como a agricultura portuguesa é conhecida, por contraponto com a espanhola.
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Por fim, o quarto artigo termina desta forma magistral:

"So before you copy the spa’s method and do something that doesn’t scale, understand what is the real product and what is just there to sell the real product." 

Porque o país é pequeno e muito montanhoso não podemos ter a escala espanhola, porque não temos capital para investigação e tecnologia não podemos ter "dinamarquices", mas temos a autenticidade e o clima.
Qual é o verdadeiro produto que a nossa agricultura pode oferecer?

Acerca da narrativa das pescas e da CEE

Algo que não encaixa na narrativa dominante sobre as pescas portuguesas:

"The overall supply of fish (in tonnage) into Portugal, with a crude net volume measured as domestic landings + exports – imports was around 500,000 t annually in the early 1960s, reaching a peak of 627,000 t in 1967. For reasons explained above, it subsequently fell to a bottom level of 246,000 t in 1979. By the mid 1980s, supply started increasing. In 2007, total supply was estimated at 655,000 t, the highest level ever recorded."

Algo que nunca ouvi nas narrativas dos políticos, a propósito da "maldade" da CEE em relação à pesca portuguesa:

"In addition to these macroeconomic perturbations, the fisheries sector was exposed to a major shock of its own: the introduction of 200 mile Exclusive Economic Zones in 1977, as a consequence of Extended Fisheries Jurisdiction (EFJ).
...
Portugal was traditionally a DWFS. The Portuguese long distance fleet operated mainly in the North and Southeast Atlantic, targeting mainly cod (G. morhua) and hake (Merluccius spp.), respectively.
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However, with the advent of the 200 mile EEZs by coastal states in the latter part of the 1970s, countries with distant water fleets such as Portugal suffered from this change. Due to the combined effects of Extended Fisheries Jurisdiction and the end of international open access fisheries, the oil shock and the aftermath of the Revolution, the fishing sector faced tremendous difficulties."

Trechos retirados de "An economic analysis of the Portuguese fisheries sector 1960–2011" de Trond Bjørndal, Alena Lappo e Jorge Ramos.

Mongo passa por isto (parte II)

Parte I.
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A revista Inc de Maio passado no artigo referido na parte I, trazia esta figura muito interessante e instrutiva:

BSC numa IPSS (parte VIII)

Parte I, parte II, parte III, parte IV, parte V, parte VI e parte VII.

Na sequência da parte IV.

"Measures, Not Strategic Initiatives.
It’s not uncommon for Scorecard developers to include at least a measure or two to the effect, “Complete project X by September 30.” This reflects an initiative - an action taken to assure success on the measure - not a measure itself. Should they be fortunate enough to complete the project, does the measure simply vanish from the Scorecard?
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In this case, the Scorecard creators should ask, “What happens on September 30? How are we better off as an organization? How are prospects improved for our customers or clients?” In other words, “Why are we embarking on this initiative?” Answering these questions may lead to the development of a more appropriate performance measure. If, however, the initiative is vital to the organization’s strategy, you may include a variant of it on the Scorecard by tracking milestone completions on the path to completing the initiative. Once the project is finished, you can transition to a measure that reflects why the organization invested in the initiative."

Trecho retirado de "Balanced Scorecard Evolution - A Dynamic Approach to Strategy Execution", de Paul Niven.

E no seu caso?

Algo que acontece com alguma frequência nas empresas, iludidas pelos números das vendas:

"Our largest customer was among our least profitable. Indeed, customers in the middle of the pack, which didn’t demand substantial resources, were more profitable than the giant we fawned over.
What happened? We made a mistake that’s exceedingly common in business: We measured the wrong thing. The statistic we relied on to assess our performance—revenues—was disconnected from our overall objective of profitability. As a result, our strategic and resource allocation decisions didn’t support that goal.
...
The authors’ survey of 157 companies showed that only 23% had done extensive modeling to determine the causes of the effects they were measuring. The researchers suggest that at least 70% of the companies they surveyed didn’t consider a nonfinancial measure’s persistence or its predictive value. Nearly a decade later, most companies still fail to link cause and effect in their choice of nonfinancial statistics.
But the news is not all bad. Ittner and Larcker did find that companies that bothered to measure a nonfinancial factor—and to verify that it had some real effect—earned returns on equity that were about 1.5 times greater than those of companies that didn’t take those steps.
...
companies that make proper links between nonfinancial measures and value creation stand a better chance of improving results."

E a sua empresa, tem um mapa da estratégia?

Relaciona indicadores financeiros e não-financeiros através de um conjunto de relações de causa efeito que traduz a estratégia?

"companies that make proper links between nonfinancial measures and value creation stand a better chance of improving results"

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Trechos retirados de "The True Measures of Success"

Acerca da incapacidade de execução da estratégia

Acerca da incapacidade de execução da estratégia:

"Only 20%-30% of corporate and business unit strategies successfully deliver expected results.
...
Despite awareness of the problem, the statistic itself has not really changed much in the last 20 years. What never ceases to amaze me is why people continue doing something that failed to work 80% of the time. Why is this myopia, this herd mentality, and this rationalization of mediocrity so prevalent? Our observations and experience indicate that:

• Less than half of all current strategic initiatives are aligned with company strategy

• Only 1 in 7 strategic initiatives add value beyond “break even”

• The ROI on Strategy delivers 80% less than plan

• Companies invest billions every year on strategies that don’t improve business results or increase the value of the company

• Average CEO tenure is less than 4 years"

Trecho retirado de "Strategy – Why It’s Broken And How To Fix It"

Mais um habitante de Mongo

Um artigo que simboliza Mongo em vários aspectos, "As facas do melhor restaurante do mundo saíram das mãos de Paulo, the bladesmith".
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Artesão, artista, autenticidade, peças únicas, paixão, amor pelo produto, ...

"Abre gavetas onde guarda uma mistura de facas, algumas terminadas, outras que são ainda projectos em curso. Num pequeno caderno, vai fazendo desenhos, estudos. Algumas têm uma forma mais próxima da adaga, outra (já feita) é um estilete de cabo retorcido, outras são facas de trabalho, com a guarda em bronze batido, ou em corno de búfalo, as lâminas afiadas, a parte de cima tosca, martelada. “Não faço facas perfeitas; para isso, existem as fábricas.”"

liderar o mercado

"O Bernardo quer liderar o mercado de fitness"
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E o que quer dizer com "liderar o mercado"?

"A Solinca Health & Fitness quer ser líder de mercado
...
Queremos possibilitar que o exercício físico seja para todos, em qualquer lugar. A nossa aposta foca-se em democratizar e universalizar o acesso a estes serviços."

Quem não quiser enfrentar a Solinca de frente, recordar "How the Weak Win Wars", deve pensar naquilo que o modelo de negócio da Solinca não privilegia, recordar "Treat different people differently. Anything else is a compromise".
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Há muitas formas de ser líder de mercado:

• pela quota de mercado;
• num dado segmento;
• numa dada geografia;
• pela notoriedade;
• ...

Não há uma forma única de abordar o mercado porque os clientes não são todos iguais e têm diferentes bolsas e motivações.

Porque não somos plankton... (parte III)

Parte I e parte II.
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Uma narrativa muito mais de acordo com o que penso que está a acontecer, em "Disrupting Procter & Gamble":

"P&G’s development process actually reminds me of how we used to develop on-premise enterprise software: long 18- to 24-month cycles, a handful of beta testers—almost like a focus group—and then a big launch to manufacturing and worldwide sales channels. The hit products were huge, but there were also many high-profile flops—for example, Groove Networks.
...
That’s exactly what Quirky has figured out and why they have the potential to disrupt the entire P&G business model. Ben Kaufman, Quirky’s founder and CEO, had the vision to democratize product development. He assembled a team of professionals across design, merchandising, legal, manufacturing and marketing to work with a worldwide community of participants who collaborate on every aspect of product development. The community contributes ideas, names and slogans, pricing input, marketing tips, manufacturability suggestions and will soon be able to offer in-store merchandising help.
...
Is it possible that the collective brainpower of thousands of people can be more successful than the experts at P&G?"

E não esquecer a última citação de "A crise tem as costas largas"

A crise tem as costas largas

Há bocado no Twitter chamaram-me a atenção para uma mensagem de Henrique Monteiro no FB:

"Depois de ler (Expresso) que Proença de Carvalho quer contratar economistas para demonstrar a implicação da crise geral na crise do GES, ..."

Lembrei-me logo de um velho postal "KARSTADT: DEATH OF A LEGEND (BUSINESS MODEL)" onde se pode ler:

"The German retail and travel conglomerate Arcandor AG formerly known as KarstadtQuelle AG filed on June 9th 2009 for insolvency. It claims that the financial crisis is the reason. It had asked the German government in May for state aid but the government refused. But is the financial crisis the real reason for the dire situation? I do not think so. The business models of its retail activities (Karstadt and Quelle) are just dead. The management did not innovate on its business model and that is the reason for failure."

Segue-se um excelente texto com argumentos que tentamos divulgar ao longo dos tempos neste blogue.
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BTW, a propósito da decisão da P&G relatada em "Porque não somos plankton...":

"The next lesson is that all activities at corporate level like selling non-core assets do not solve your problems of an ailing business model. The solution must be found on the business level not on a corporate level. If you cannot fix it, than sell or close it early. Success in business is not defined on corporate level but by its business model!"

E, entretanto,

Gente que constrói um amanhã:

• "Chocolates Imperial expandem-se e entram nas lojas Walmart no Brasil"
• "Fábrica da Mitsubishi arranca com exportação para Marrocos"
• "Porto de Faro exporta cimento para o Norte de África"
• "Empresário investe três milhões em fábrica de atum no Faial"
• "Bfruit já exporta 150 t para Holanda, Bélgica e Brasil"
• "Porminho investe dois milhões para ganhar mercados"

Não são divagadores que sentados num café, ou em frente a um ecrã, lançam postas de pescada sobre como acham que o mundo deve funcionar, são gente com skin-in-the-game, gente que em Maio espalha bosta nos terrenos.

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Verdadeiros heróis anónimos...

Custa-me a acreditar nestes números

A caminho de Mongo e, no entanto:

• "Declining Business Dynamism in the United States: A Look at States and Metros"
• "Why It's Getting Harder to Start Your Own Business"
• "The Aging of American Businesses"
• "More than 50 percent of companies don’t survive to their sixth birthday"

Custa-me a acreditar nestes números, apesar da barreira do "red tape". Será que existem formas de organização actuais que não são contabilizadas? Será que os free-lancers são considerados? Será que ...

"In an era of hyper-competition and global sales, that can't be a good thing. Small, disruptive businesses have led to the major innovations in every century, such as the automobile, the airplane, and the personal computer, the authors write.
.
"If we want a vibrant, rapidly growing economy in the future, we must find ways to encourage and make room for the startups of the future that will commercialize similarly influential innovations"

Argumentos

Utilizo esta frase de Carlos Albuquerque:

"No  regaço do país há inúmeras rosas bem vivas. Mas é muito mau criar a perceção de que só lá estão espinhos"

Para chamar a atenção para este artigo "Save Money - Ten Reasons Why It is Cheaper to Buy From a US Factory Than China" e, convidar a fazer um paralelismo para Portugal e para o que pode ser um futuro melhor. Claro que se a atenção, o tempo e os outros recursos estiverem aplicados na defesa do passado...
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Claro que o artigo está escrito para os que, nos Estados Unidos, mandam produzir na China. Aqui, escrevo para os que produzem em Portugal, para que pensem em argumentos para valorizar a sua capacidade produtiva junto dos que, no resto da Europa, porque controlam o acesso às prateleiras, mandam produzir.

"Shorter delivery time--Marlin Steel is a one to two day point to Chicago or four to five days to California on the back of a truck. (Moi ici: Felgueiras está a 2 dias de toda a Europa Ocidental e Central) China takes 4-8 weeks on a boat and this does not include the typical snafus unloading containers through customs and homeland security at our clogged ports.
...
Total cost of ownership--When you add in all the costs of importing like custom duties, insurance, overseas quality inspections, freight damage, etc (Moi ici: Algo que quem lida com o pricing deve perceber e saber utilizar com mestria)
...
Higher quality--
...
Reduced freight costs--A container of freight from Shanghai to New York Amsterdam is $4,000.00+ however US Portuguese factories can get goods delivered to your door step for a fraction of this price.
...
Wage cost improvement--Chinese Factories have to pay their labor 20% more each year for five years. Despite these pay increases, a third of the employee base does not return annually after Chinese New Year. The strains in the Chinese labor system will intensify in coming years as decades of "One Child" policy causes an accelerating labor shortage in China (you read that right)! To make matters worse, Chinese labor has a 50% social security tax burdening them so they are becoming less competitive faster.
...
Improved customer responsiveness--When issues arise, US Portuguese Factories own up to our errors and fix the problem. If problems are not resolved, US Portuguese Companies are bound by the rule of law. Many overseas companies are hard to find when problems arise. Good luck dealing with the local Communist Party official in China adjudicating your cross border conflict vs. a local Chinese employer.
...
Image/brand--Selling products is easier when the marketing department can boast "Made in the USA." Portugal ou UE...
Better innovation/product differentiation--having a USA Portuguese factory build for your firm will improve collaboration and profits. Ideas will occur on the factory floor, which can be easily tried. Improving cross-pollination with the domestic marketing and engineering team is easy because we all speak the same language in the same time zone. ... This feedback and new client tastes can be quickly adapted into new revision levels of the product. This will make sure your inventory does not become stale--staying relevant in a dynamic fast changing market is critical.
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Inventory management--when some of your finished goods are on a boat and some are in customs, it is hard to manage with confidence when critical components will arrive. Naturally, purchasing managers without confidence of when things will arrive and in what condition, "over buy" inventory. "Purchasing manager job preservation" is an expensive wasteful plan for your company."

BTW "Forbes: The End of Chinese Manufacturing and Rebirth of U.S. Industry"

Acerca das PPP

Em tempos, não sei se nos livros de Dan Ariely, ou de Kahneman, ou de Gigerenzer, encontrei uma referência ao sobre-optimismo dos governos quando calculam as taxas de crescimento em projectos como TGV, novos aeroportos, ...
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Entretanto, encontrei esta peça "Over-optimism in government projects":

"This report looks at a particularly persistent risk management problem – the difficulties caused for government projects by unrealistic expectations and over-optimism.
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Initiating projects on the basis of unrealistic assumptions is not new. It is a long-standing problem widely recognised by public sector managers and covered in HM Treasury guidance. Yet all too frequently over-optimism results in the underestimation of the time, costs and risks to delivery and the overestimation of the benefits. It undermines value for money at best, and in the worst case leads to unviable projects."

Porque não somos plankton (parte II)

Provavelmente o melhor artigo deste Verão em defesa de Mongo, "P&G’s Problem Isn't Too Many Brands; It’s a Dated Business Model".

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Em sintonia com "Porque não somos plankton..."

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Mongo não é propriamente a melhor praia para os Golias deste mundo com modelos de negócio baseados no volume do século XX.

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Interessante perceber que:

"But over the past 15 years, P&G has sold more than 30 iconic brands that were supposedly hindering growth, and none of those divestitures fixed its sales problem. The strategy did create a slew of new, more successful rivals,
...
J.M. Smucker (SJM), buyer of P&G’s Jif peanut butter, Crisco shortening, and Folgers coffee, has had nearly 50 percent sales growth since 2009. Other companies, such as Innovative Brands (Pert Plus shampoo and Sure deodorant), Pinnacle Foods (PF) (Duncan Hines), and Prestige Brands (PBH) (Chloraseptic) also have done well with P&G’s orphaned products. (Moi ici: As tribos não se dão bem com gigantes. Gigantes apontam para relacionamentos de transacção, tribos apontam para relacionamentos de interacção, de co-criação, de cumplicidade)
...
Once, it seemed as if P&G could build successful brands in any category. For decades the company successfully expanded into beauty, health care, batteries, razors, and several other consumer goods categories. As P&G increased its brand portfolio and its global footprint, the company’s revenue multiplied from $11 billion in 1980 to nearly $40 billion in 2000.
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That success was a result of a centralized structure that allowed P&G, an enormous company, to outresearch, outmarket, and outspend smaller competitors. But the world has changed in the past 15 years, and P&G’s model doesn’t work as well.
...
The most successful consumer products companies are small and nimble. Annie’s Homegrown (BNNY), Boulder Brands (BDBD), and Keurig Green Mountain (GMCR) have more than doubled revenue in the past five years.
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P&G’s biggest obstacle to growth is its centralized planning and decision-making. In today’s faster-paced environment, this structure slows innovation and turns every project into a big investment. Companies with more decentralized models are winning in the marketplace because their innovations come more quickly and are less costly, which translates into lower risk."

Um outro artigo da mesma revista sobre o mesmo tema "P&G's Plan to Ditch Half Its Brands Is Not as Strange as You Think", termina com uma frase com a qual discordamos completamente:

"The takeaway: Brands are not losing power, but building powerful brands these days takes greater resources."

O ponto não são os recursos, o ponto é a proximidade, a interacção, a flexibilidade, a cumplicidade, a relação com os consumidores.

Acerca do estabelecimento de objectivos

Um interessante e útil artigo "You’re More Likely to Pursue Your Goals After a Birthday or the First of the Month", onde se refere "The Fresh Start Effect: Temporal Landmarks Motivate Aspirational Behavior", onde se pode ler:

"Understanding when people are most motivated to pursue their aspirations is important for a number of reasons. Aspirational behaviors are activities that help people achieve their wishes and personal goals.
...
Temporal landmarks, or distinct events that “stand in marked contrast to the seemingly unending stream of trivial and ordinary occurrences that happen to us every day”, have been shown to structure our memories and experiences. One type of temporal landmarkincludes reference points on socially constructed and shared timetables. Examples include the beginning of an academic semester, secular and religious holidays, and time dividers on the yearly calendar. Another type of temporal landmark includes personally relevant life events that demarcate our personal histories, such as developmental milestones, life transitions, first experiences, and occasions of recurrent significance. These temporal landmarks not only influence the manner in which people recall memories, experiences, and time durations retrospectively but are also used to organize current activities and future plans and to designate the boundaries of temporal periods.
...
temporal landmarks open new mental accounts. We propose that when temporal landmarks open new mental accounts, the beginning of a new period stands in contrast to more typical days in our lives.
...
We argue that by relegating previous imperfections to a past self and generating a sense that the current self is superior, temporal landmarks can alter people’s decisions.
...
In addition to psychologically separating people from their past imperfections, temporal landmarks may motivate people to pursue their aspirations by altering the manner in which they process information and form preferences. Specifically, by creating discontinuities in our perceptions of time, experiences, and activities, temporal landmarks may promote taking a broader view of decisions. ... interruptions to decision making (e.g., switching to a new background task while pondering a focal decision) change information processing. Specifically, interruptions move people from a bottom-up, contextually rich mode of thinking focused on concrete data to a higher level, top-down mode guided by preexisting goal and knowledge structures. Temporal landmarks may serve as one type of disruption to decision making and thus direct attention to high-level, goal-relevant information."

O século XX fica lá atrás

O século XX fica lá atrás.
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De certa forma, o século XX económico, o século das mega-empresas, o século da eficiência, começou em 1870 com esta figura.

Por todo o lado sintomas da mudança do mundo em que vivemos

Por todo o lado sintomas da mudança do mundo em que vivemos:

• "Shoppers Are Fleeing Physical Stores"

"U.S. retailers are facing a steep and persistent drop in store traffic, which is weighing on sales and prompting chains to slow store openings as shoppers make more of their purchases online.
.
Aside from a small uptick in April, shopper visits have fallen by 5% or more from a year earlier in every month for the past two years,
...
Growth in store counts at the 100 largest retailers by revenue has slowed to less than 3% from more than 12% three years ago, according to Moody's."

• Mais números e excelentes gráficos sobre a evolução do retalho aqui e aqui
• "What Business Schools Don’t Get About MOOCs" 
• "China desbancará a Estados Unidos como el mayor mercado de moda del mundo en 2017"
• "Bangladesh intensifica las protestas en el textil: 1.500 trabajadores en huelga de hambre"
• "Negocios de Verano: ‘pop-up stores’, tiendas con fecha de caducidad para seducir al turista"

Por cá tudo se justifica com a troika e a austeridade (por exemplo, "A asfixia financeira dos jornais pode custar cara a Portugal"). No entanto, até que ponto o digital está a introduzir ruído na análise destes números "Portugal com segunda maior queda mensal nas vendas a retalho".

A felicidade é sempre uma medida relativa

Esta manhã, alguém no Twitter chamava a atenção para a tendência dos comediantes bem sucedidos sofrerem períodos de forte depressão pessoal.
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Lembrei-me logo desta figura:

"More interesting still, development is generally clustered by region. But in terms of happiness, it runs the gamut from gloomy to chirpy within the same income group. And regional stereotypes reveal themselves: people in far eastern Europe and central Asia are dour despite having reasonable living standards, while those in Latin America at the same level of development tend to be cheery—around 20 basis points higher.
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In the chart above, rolling over the data points reveals information; clicking on regions in the key focuses on certain areas. This unveils interesting outliers. People in Myanmar are as happy as those in Hong Kong who have much higher living standards. Depressingly, Haitians are unlike their Caribbean neighbors and resemble sub-Saharan African countries"

 E de uma teoria que Malcom Gladwell defende em "David & Golias":

"Which do you think, for example, has a higher suicide rate: countries whose citizens declare themselves to be very happy, such as Switzerland, Denmark, Iceland, the Netherlands, and Canada? or countries like Greece, Italy, Portugal, and Spain, whose citizens describe themselves as not very happy at all? Answer: the so-called happy countries.
...
If you are depressed in a place where most people are pretty unhappy, you compare yourself to those around you and you don’t feel all that bad. But can you imagine how difficult it must be to be depressed in a country where everyone else has a big smile on their face?
...
We compare ourselves to those in the same situation as ourselves
...
Citizens of happy countries have higher suicide rates than citizens of unhappy countries, because they look at the smiling faces around them and the contrast is too great."

Presumo que um comediante bem sucedido está habituado a ver pessoas que, quando estão consigo, demonstram exteriormente alegria, e boa disposição. Algures, é natural que o comediante se comece a interrogar porque é que ele é tão diferente dos outros.

Acerca do fenómeno das empresas tipo-Dick Dastardly

Há anos que escrevo sobre o fenómeno das empresas tipo-Dick Dastardly:

Empresas que se preocupam mais com a concorrência do que com o viver da sua própria vida:

• "A ver passar motards"; e
• "Quasi uma blasfémia".

Daí o sublinhar de:

"“Never innovate to compete, innovate to change the rules of the game” to express the mindset of a true innovator.
...
our culture likes to pit companies against each other because it’s the type of  stuff that grabs headlines; unfortunately most can’t see beyond the bias.
...
For me, innovation makes competition irrelevant. Anywhere. Period."

Trechos retirados de "True innovation makes competition irrelevant"