Sexo, jardineiros, intervencionistas, Taleb e Cavaco Silva (parte I)

A propósito desta história "Manutenção dos espaços verdes do Parque das Nações vai ser feita por 16 jardineiros, antes eram 70".
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Impressionou-me, por um lado a incapacidade de gente, que lida com tantos milhões de euros impostados aos contribuintes, para fazer contas básicas e, sobretudo a dúvida. Por que é que o cliente se preocupa a impor requisitos acerca do número de jardineiros que vão manter o espaço? Não era mais adequado e mais próximo do que se deseja, impor requisitos acerca do resultado do trabalho dos jardineiros?
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Voltei a recordar esta história ontem, ao ler num jornal o desejo do presidente:

"Cavado Silva afirmou ainda que «Portugal deve continuar a apostar na educação, no conhecimento e na inovação para que deixemos de ser um país que exporta acima de tudo produtos de baixa ou média tecnologia e passemos a exportar produtos de média e alta tecnologia e isso exige a continuação dos investimentos na área da I&D»."

O presidente coloca mal o desafio, a Qimonda cumpria o desejo do presidente e, no entanto, era um buraco financeiro insustentável. O desafio não deve ser exportar produtos de médio e alta tecnologia, mais uma vez concentramos-nos no processo e não nos resultados. O desafio, em minha opinião, deve ser apostar em produtos e serviços de mais alto valor acrescentado, sejam eles de baixa ou alta tecnologia, só o alto valor acrescentado permite a melhoria de vida das pessoas.
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O presidente coloca o desafio desta maneira porque, como muitos, acha que existem sectores económicos condenados.
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Continua.

Não deixe a sua empresa ser apanhada na curva

"What business are you in?  It seems like a straightforward question, and one that should take no time to answer.  But the truth is that most company leaders are too narrow in defining their competitive landscape or market space.  They fail to see the potential for “non-traditional” competitors, and therefore often misperceive their basic business definition and future market space."

O mesmo tema do artigo que Theodore Levitt escreveu em 1960, "Marketing Myopia"?

"Getting your business definition and competitor set right requires two things: first, an understanding of who your customer is, and second, an honest view of both the high level and detailed use-case problem you are solving for them.
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Today, that kind of world-changing innovation seems to be happening faster and faster.  New megatrends are fundamentally altering market dynamics and business definitions.  These trends include the share economy, crowdsourcing, the mobile and tablet revolution, Big Data, and what I sense will be perhaps the most disruptive of all to business definitions — the Internet of things."

Daí ser fundamental pensar:

"So the critical question for businesses to ask — more now than ever — is not what business you are in today, but what business you should be in tomorrow." 

 Tanto fabricante de coisas que vai ser apanhado na curva por Mongo, por causa da redução de consumo promovida pela economia do aluguer e artilha, por causa da entrada do código nas coisas mais comezinhas, por causa do retorno do semi-industrial. (Ainda ontem à noite, no canal História, fiquei a pensar, ao ver o programa "Restauradores", no valor sentimental que as pessoas atribuem a algo que fez parte da sua vida, ou dos seus familiares, no passado. Em Mongo, porque não o mesmo tipo de envolvimento com algo que vai fazer parte da sua vida no futuro?)

Trechos retirados de "The First Strategic Question Every Business Must Ask"

"a means to solving a problem"

Actualmente, durante o jogging, ando a ouvir "The Red Queen: Sex and the Evolution of Human Nature" de Matt Ridley. Este trecho fixou a minha atenção:

"It seems to treat evolution as some kind of imperative, as if evolving were what species exist to do - as if evolving were a goal imposed on existence.'
This is, of course, nonsense. Evolution is something that happens to organisms. It is a directionless process that sometimes makes an animal's descendants more complicated, sometimes simpler, and sometimes changes them not at all: We are so steeped in notions of progress and self-improvement that we find it strangely hard to accept this. But nobody has told the coelacanth, a fish that lives off Madagascar and looks exactly like its ancestors of 300 million years ago, that it has broken some law by not " evolving.
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Indeed, the coelacanth, far from being a flop, is rather a success: It has stayed the same—a design that persists without innovation, like a Volkswagen beetle. Evolving is not a goal but a means to solving a problem."

Aplicando esta pensamento à economia temos aquela frase de Nassim Taleb:

"Stress is information" 

 Se a cada recessão temos a intervenção keynesiana do Estado, para torrar uns milhões de euros a apoiar provisoriamente umas empresas, ou sectores escolhidos, os problemas para essas empresas são abafados, escondidos, temporariamente ... corta-se a motivação para a evolução.
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Fazendo o paralelismo com Kotter, a mudança não ocorre por causa de relatórios e razões muito racionais, a mudança ocorre por causa de se estar com uma espada contra a parede, ocorre por causa de uma "burning platfform", por causa do barco de madeira estar a arder em pleno oceano:

Curiosidade do dia

Mongo is everywhere!!!

"The company, founded in September 2012, offers people the opportunity to memorialize their loved ones with a custom design that highlights both that person's unique interests and personality. The creations (as you can see in gallery above) are what those in the real estate industry might delicately call "taste specific."
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each marker is created specifically according to the vision of the purchaser. While there's a catalog from which bereaved families can choose certain broad templates, customization is an important part of the idea, and Pineau makes it clear that that's a point of pride for the company. "We made about 100 monuments in the first year, and all of them are installed in .... We do not sell our products to be displayed in showrooms. We create unique works tailor-made for our customers."

Em que sector será? Um doce para quem adivinhar!!!
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Trecho retirado daqui.

O Eu.Criança

Durante os meus tempos ingénuos de fundação da Quercus, o Falco tinnunculus (peneireiro de dorso malhado ou francelho) era, para mim, uma espécie de pardal das aves de rapina, dado que era muito comum e fácil de identificar através da conjugação da cor e do peneirar.
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Com o tempo, deixei de os ver. Já não faço birdwatching como fazia, mas mesmo em sítios onde os costumava ver, deixei de os ver.

Hoje, 8 e pico da manhã, a entrar na A29 em Salreu, sou surpreendido por um exemplar, com aquele perfil inconfundível, a voar contra o vento forte.

Acerca da estratégia

Interessante, não sabia que esta constatação empírica "A biologia é um manancial de lições sobre a economia" e aqui repetida "É preciso estar sempre alerta", era conhecida e citada:

"David Packard once famously quipped, “More companies die from overeating than starvation.”"

Cuidado com tudo ser prioridade.

Trecho retirado daqui.

Válido para pessoas e para empresas

"The key is changing your frame to focus on your advantages, not your shortcomings.
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When you’re trying to understand your unique abilities, it helps to think about scarcity. What background or skills do you have that might be rare in a given context?
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To understand what’s so special about you, you have to compete on your playing field, not someone else’s. If you let others set the terms of the debate ... you will lose almost every time. There will always be someone who knows more than you do about a given topic, or who has more directly relevant experience.
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Instead, you have to seize the confidence to say their criteria are irrelevant (or at least less relevant), and there’s another yardstick that matters more. Too many professionals accept the limitations of other people’s viewpoints, and see themselves as falling short. When you understand what you possess that’s scarce, and are strong enough to make the case for yourself based on your own metrics, you’re likely to be far more persuasive than you ever imagined."

Trechos retirados de "Your Weakness May Be Your Competitive Advantage"

Material para a criação de cenários

Uma temática que costumamos abordar aqui, o futuro do emprego, o futuro dos carros, a economia da partilha e aluguer, e como tudo interage:

"For more than a century, big corporations existed because it was cheaper and more efficient to gather and own talent and the means of production in-house than it was to go out and find whatever you needed whenever you needed it. But today, networks and software are changing that.
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This fuels a movement toward smaller, lighter companies at the core, and the core is where people will have "jobs" - full-time gigs sitting alongside colleagues who all have similar full-time gigs. The cores will shrink, leaving fewer of these jobs. Instead, companies will outsource everything they can. (Moi ici: E, depois, alguém há-de interrogar-se, "Por que precisamos delas?")
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Jobs are being replaced by work. (Moi ici: E isto é algo que os "certificadores de competências", as universidades, vão ter de perceber que as pessoas vão precisar menos de canudos e diplomas e mais de conhecimento e aprendizagem contínua pragmática) Employees are being replaced by the talent cloud - an ephemeral place where micro-entrepreneurs and small groups of skilled people connect to the companies that need them.
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The sharing economy is the start of consumers outsourcing the assets they don't have to own. It is to consumers in the 2010s what "re-engineering" was to corporations in the 1990s: a way to slim down, spend smarter, and have more options.
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Cars are a perfect place to start. They are wildly expensive and, with the exception of minivans owned by suburban soccer moms with three kids, shamefully underutilized."

Trecho retirado de "Your Garage May Be the Next Target of 'Un-Scaling'"

Concentração e foco

"Jason Fried, an Inc. columnist and founder of 37signals, a Chicago-based software company, announced today that his company would begin focusing exclusively on one of its products, Basecamp, the popular project-management application. Not only that, the company will be changing its name and entire identity to reflect the new focus--Basecamp the product, Basecamp the company.
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Business has never been better, so it’s not as if this were some kind of forced retrenchment. Fried says he simply had a realization that quality and culture would likely suffer if the company continued to expand. So he did the exact opposite.
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What's wrong with continuing to grow into a larger company, with more employees? Most companies would be excited about the growth.JF: There's nothing inherently wrong with it, but it's at odds with our culture. We take being a small company very seriously. We absolutely love it. We think small companies have advantages that large companies simply cannot have." (1)

Recordar:

""When Steve Jobs returned to Apple in 1997, after having been ousted in 1984, he found a company with a sea of products—computers, peripheral products for computers, twelve different types of Macintosh. The company was floundering. His strategy was simple: focus. Instead of dozens of products, Apple would concentrate on just four: one computer and one laptop each for two markets, consumer and professional. Just as in his Zen practice, where recognizing you’ve become distracted helps you concentrate, he saw that “[deciding what not to do is as important as deciding what to do.”(2)

E ainda:

"Phase 1: When we really have clarity of purpose, it leads to success.
Phase 2: When we have success, it leads to more options and opportunities.
Phase 3: When we have increased options and opportunities, it leads to diffused efforts.
Phase 4: Diffused efforts undermine the very clarity that led to our success in the first place." (3)

(1) Trechos retirados de "Your Business Is Booming. Time to Change Course"
(2) Trecho retirado de "Focus - The Hidden Driver of Excellence" de Daniel Goleman
(3) Trecho retirado de "The Disciplined Pursuit of Less"

Curiosidade do dia

"Today [28 de Janeiro] may be a milestone in the 3D printing revolution: one of the key 3D printing patents related to Selective Laser Sintering (SLS) technology expires today.
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2014 will be an important year for 3D printing development. Another patent set to expire this year is the following: (Moi ici: E segue-se a lista)
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The technology behind all of these patents promises to be an incredible boon for the development of 3D printing.
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Thus, 2014 – and perhaps even today's date – may make the annals of 3D printing history."

Trechos retirados de "Let the revolution begin: key 3D printing patent expires today"

O que os keynesianos esquecem

Esta manhã troquei a ordem, assim, ouvi o noticiário da TSF às 8 da manhã. De repente, sou surpreendido com esta reportagem, "Carpintaria de Famalicão produziu nova loja do Barcelona em Camp Nou".
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Gostei, sobretudo de:

"«Mesmo durante a crise tivemos sempre muito trabalho porque nunca cedemos ao facilitismo de baixar a qualidade para fabricar barato."

O que os keynesianos esquecem é que o stress gerado por uma recessão é informação que motiva os agentes a procurarem alternativas:

"Desde que foi fundada, a CSJ ultrapassou a crise no setor da construção civil, virou-se para o mobiliário personalizado e à boleia do "boom" dos centros comerciais nos anos 90 apostou na decoração de lojas"

Com apoios e subsídios dificilmente haveria necessidade de mudar, de subir na escala de valor, de diversificar, de tentar algo novo.

Acerca de Mongo

"Additive-manufacturing technologies could alter the way companies add value to their products and services. The outsourcing of conventional manufacturing helped spur companies such as Nike to rely more on their design skills. Likewise, 3-D printing techniques could reduce the cost and complexity of other kinds of production and force companies to differentiate their products in other ways. These could include everything from making products more easily reparable (and thus longer lived) to creating personalized designs.
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Indeed, reducing the reliance on hard tooling (which facilitates the manufacture of thousands of identical items) creates an opportunity to offer customized or bespoke designs at lower cost—and to a far broader range of customers. The additive manufacture of individualized orthodontic braces is just one example of the potential of these technologies. As more such offerings become technically viable, companies will have to determine which are sufficiently appealing and commercially worthwhile. The combination of mass customization and new design possibilities will up the ante for many companies and could prove very disruptive to traditional players in some segments.
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Of course, retailers too could someday use fabs—for example, to let customers tailor products such as toys or building materials to suit their needs. That business model could represent a value-chain play for manufacturers if, for instance, they owned the machines, core designs, or both.
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Many benefits of 3-D printing could cut the cost of market entry for new players: for example, the use of the technology to lower tooling costs makes it cheaper to begin manufacturing, even at low volumes, or to serve niche segments. The direct manufacturing of end products greatly simplifies and reduces the work of a designer who would only have to take products from the computer screen to commercial viability. New businesses are already popping up to offer highly customized or collaboratively designed products. Others act as platforms for the manufacture and distribution of products designed and sold online by their customers. These businesses are gaining insights into consumer tastes and building relationships that established companies could struggle to match.
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Initially, these new competitors will be niche players, operating where consumers are willing to pay a premium for a bespoke design, complex geometry, or rapid delivery. Over the longer term, however, they could transform industries in unexpected ways, moving the source of competitive advantage away from the ability to manufacture in high volumes at low cost and toward other areas of the value chain, such as design or even the ownership of customer networks. Moreover, the availability of open-source designs for 3-D printed firearms shows how such technologies have the potential to create ethical and regulatory dilemmas and to disrupt industries."

Trechos retirados de "3-D printing takes shape"

Um exemplo português

Um exemplo português da economia da partilha, do aluguer, das tribos, de Mongo em "SlowFastCycles".
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Ainda este Domingo reparei, na Rua Costa Cabral, no Porto, por volta das 13h, um grupo de ciclistas à porta de uma loja de porta aberta que me parecia servir esta tribo.

Quem é este ministro?

Quem é este ministro?

Novos modelos de negócio e o poder do contexto

Há tempos ouvi falar de um "café", algures, que passou a cobrar o tempo de estadia em vez do café. Sinceramente não liguei muito, era uma curiosidade.
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Entretanto, na semana passada fui ao Porto e, a certa altura precisei de um espaço para trabalhar, para aceder à internet, para carregar o PC (também podia ser o ipad, ou o smartphone). Não precisava de uma bebida, precisava de um espaço. Normalmente o que faço, no Porto ou Lisboa, é recorrer a um McDonald's, ou ao Subway, como espaços de trabalho.
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Ontem, ao ler "Is it time to freshen up your business model?":

"We hear a lot about new business models these days, but so far the conversation has tended to centre on the hi-tech digital sector where new ways of doing things is part of the DNA.
Yet the importance of developing new business models should not just be confined to digital start-ups; it is something every business should be looking hard at.
The fact is that business models – the formula you use to make money – are not set in stone. We live in a fast-moving world, and changing customer needs and new technology mean what works brilliantly today may be a total dud by tomorrow.
Which means it is vital to ensure that your business model is still fit for purpose."

Fez-se um clique e comecei a ver a história sob um outro prisma.
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Lembram-se do conselho para a Comur?
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O pricing diz que o preço é contextual. Quando li sobre o tal "café" que se cobrava ao minuto, mentalmente comparei esse "café" com os cafés que conheço. Tal como comparar conservas de truta fumada com conservas de sardinha.
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Agora, ao recordar o episódio do Porto e ao relacioná-lo com o "café", coloquei-me num outro contexto, como comparar conservas de truta fumada com peixe fumado. Assim, comecei a comparar o "café" com o aluguer de espaços de trabalho, com o aluguer de salas de reunião, com o co-working básico e realizei que a proposta de valor era bem diferente:

Curiosidade do dia

Neste blogue não se acredita que a redução de salários, ou o aumento do horário de trabalho, ou o corte de feriados, ou a redução da TSU a pagar pelas empresas, sejam meios de aumentar a competitividade da economia de bens transaccionáveis, apesar de poder proteger emprego na economia de bens não transaccionáveis.
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No entanto, neste blogue também se acredita que a existência dum salário mínimo nacional (SMN) é algo que prejudica os trabalhadores mais vulneráveis... isto de obrigar uma empresa em Bragança a pagar o mesmo SMN que uma empresa de Lisboa é absurdo.
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Por isso, este artigo "Minimum wage rise is maximum idiocy" faz todo o sentido:

"One of the tragedies of the minimum wage is that it is a tax on those companies that are large employers of the least well educated and those who do not possess scarce skills. Citizens at the bottom are further squeezed out of the market because they have become more expensive. It is a form of punishment for that cohort. Minimum wage increases positively encourage companies to seek alternatives to labour, such as outsourcing or automation.
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The cheerleaders for minimum wage rises are typically academic economists. Most of them receive salaries from the taxpayer, directly or indirectly, and have never built a business or met a payroll. Their chief worries are publishing arcane papers; many can be wrong all their lives and never lose a penny of their own money."

Um grande desafio

Um grande desafio este de "Finding the Discipline to Say No to Customers"

"Going forward, Ms. Lord said her company had to be more disciplined about saying no to potential clients.
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“The biggest shock early on was there’s only so much bandwidth,” she said"

E a sua empresa tem esta disciplina? Sabe quem não é seu cliente?

Acerca do pensamento estratégico

"Strategy is a balancing act; it’s about judging between a fate being sealed and its being realized.  Companies should not be in a hurry to abandon their competitive advantages in the wake of the hot new idea or technology.  They must pay it attention because it may contain the seeds of their eventual destruction. But there is probably plenty of time to figure out what to.
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Advantage is neither transitory nor immortal. Hence, strategy is not an either-or exercise about seeking flexibility OR sustainability. It is about both: seeking sustainable competitive advantage in a world full of far-reaching and tumultuous change."

O tempo que as universidades privadas tiveram e não aproveitaram, por exemplo. O tempo que o ensino superior não está a aproveitar, barricando-se a defender o passado e acreditando que o verdadeiro inimigo está no governo (o anterior, este e os próximos). O tempo que o têxtil não aproveitou na fase de transição para a entrada da China na OMC...

Trechos retirados de "Strategy in a World of Constant Change"

Um exemplo no mobiliário

É nisto que podemos fazer a diferença, é nisto que cada vez mais empresas em variados sectores aposta:

• "Portuguesa Frato abre loja no londrino Harrods" (2014)
• "Empresa da Maia mobila palácio presidencial do Turquemenistão" (2014)
• "Frato faz o seu primeiro milhão sem vender em português" (2012)

O campeonato onde o volume e o preço não são reis e senhores.

Esperança num futuro diferente

Estes "novos judeus" dão-me alguma esperança no futuro:

"Economic and social shifts have provided added momentum for startups. The prolonged economic crisis that began in 2008 has caused many millennials - people born since the early 1980s - to abandon hope of finding a conventional job, so it makes sense for them to strike out on their own or join a startup.
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A lot of millennials are not particularly keen on getting a “real” job anyway. According to a recent survey of 12,000 people aged between 18 and 30 in 27 countries, more than two-thirds see opportunities in becoming an entrepreneur. That signals a cultural shift. “Young people see how entrepreneurship is doing great things in other places and want to give it a try,” notes Jonathan Ortmans of the Ewing Marion Kauffman Foundation, which organises an annual Global Entrepreneurship Week."

Trecho retirado de "A Cambrian moment" (que título mais delicioso)