Começar 2016 olhando em frente!

Qual a melhor maneira de começar 2016?
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Olhando para a frente!
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E o que é que encontramos pela frente?
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MONGO!
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Sim, essa metáfora que uso sobre o mundo económico para onde nos estamos a entranhar, o Estranhistão.
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Em "2016 Food Trends: Being Brand Agnostic, New Proteins, Delivery Shifts and 5 more" julgo que encontramos muitas das características desse mundo:

"Trend #1. Agnosticism" [Moi ici: Aqui estou um bocado dividido e tentado a discordar do autor. Em Mongo teremos dois caminhos, ou entregar o produto ou serviço básico (estilo "Grab & Go") ou co-construir a experiência. As marcas grandes optaram há muito pelo básico e, por isso, serão vítimas daquilo a que chamo radioclubização ou hollowing e os clientes nada sentirão por elas. As marcas que optam por co-construir a experiência, por servir uma tribo, terão cada vez mais força, talvez não a força dos números grandes, mas a força dos Davids]

A tendência que se segue é tão Mongo:

"Trend #2. Have it your way...
personalization will become pervasive...
Food retailers will need to curate their offerings, and understand what all of their customers’ wants and desires truly are [Moi ici: Isto fez-me lembrar o falhanço da Papelaria Fernandes... algures no tempo quiseram fazer uma mini loja Staples, sem máquinas, num espaço caro e visitado por outro tipo de público... BTW, foi outra prova do tempo que foi superada] if they will remain in business and grow and compete with online sellers who continue to hone their algorithms and offerings based on purchase history." [Moi ici: Confesso que não tenho grande receio dos algoritmos, nos próximos anos, se houver humanos do outro lado. Em Outubro recorri ao Booking para reservar um quarto de hotel em Almeirim, por causa de uma visita de trabalho. Desde então, não voltei a precisar de dormir em Almeirim. No entanto, já recebi 17 e-mails parvos a oferecer-me "ofertas de última hora para Almeirim"]

Em Mongo além da tribo e da personalização: a localização, a proximidade, a autenticidade e o DIY:

"Trend #3. Bioregions:
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“Local” has been one of the biggest trends in the supermarket aisles for almost ten years.
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A recent study by A.T. Kearney found that women and (with?) children – are willing to pay more for locally produced food. The ultimate in local? Growing lettuces, herbs and yes even kale in your own kitchen year-round without herbicides."

Salami slicers?

"Trend #4. Micro-stores:
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Far from the everything-and-the-kitchen-sink hypermarkets, look for smaller, neighborhood grocers to spring up. These stores, such as ALDI (with over 1,400 locations in the U.S. and counting), Bfresh in Boston, Green Zebra in Portland are more relaxed, attentive and curated, with a heavy emphasis on products that Millennials yearn for, and buy. Excellent private and exclusive brands with prices that this generation can afford."[Moi ici: Recordar o que escrevi acima sobre o agnosticismo da tendência 1. Recordar o TOO BIG TO CARE]

O que é que a loja disponibiliza, produto ou experiência? Produto ou saúde? Ainda me recordo, numa longínqua vida passada de engenheiro, achar que uma PME nunca precisaria de um marketeer. Hoje, sentir que não precisa é o que me faz espécie. E as mercearias do futuro precisarem dos serviços de nutricionistas?

"Trend #5. A new way of eating:
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unless your store can disrupt the pattern by offering retail dietitians, health fairs and a 24/7 source of unbiased food and health information. In 2016 we will see new kinds of proteins that are more sustainable and affordable than animal sources. Algae, nuts, vegetable, yeast and even insects will be used as ingredients to up the protein punch and we will see development of new healthier profiles
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Look for an emphasis on “less is more” – fewer ingredients, and many more products touting their “free from” claims – free-from growth hormones, free-from GMOs ..."

Algo que julgo está muito mais atrasado em Portugal, o à vontade da compra online:

"Trend #6. Evolution of the millennial generation:
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There are now more Millennials than Baby Boomers and although they got a late start in their careers they are now earning dollars, getting married and moving out of their parents homes. Millennials garner a lot of attention, and they buy very differently. There is no difference to buying online or in a store."

Também neste sector a explosão do "home delivery":

"Trend #7. A delivery shift:
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It already feels as though you can order any food at any time and have it delivered in a flash, and that trend will only increase. One major change is that people of all age groups are willing to pay extra for that service."

Por fim, é a experiência da compra ao contexto da sua confecção e usufruto:

"Trend #8. Technology to the rescue:
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In every way, from supply chain to point-of-sale systems to loyalty and more, technology continues to affect the food retail industry, and there’s no chance of that stopping. But as so many technologies flood the market, some of them aren’t that reliable. Retailers should be certain they have accurate and relevant information on their websites and apps, so shoppers don’t have to go to other sources – that may mislead. We cherish our mobile devices, and believe everything that is on the screen. The opportunity to retain a shopper relationship will come through information, service and empowerment. Now more than ever we need to equip store level personnel with information and technologies that can answer the questions that shoppers have. To create a food experience like no other with tastings and classes. To truly be the center of a community.
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What will 2016 be like? More mobile. More delivery. More artisan. More curated. More delivered. More nutrition. More expensive."

A democratização da produção, não esquecer

"The idea of decentralization of production is tremendous. Think about if a company’s trying to go global, and now they want to set up a facility in another country because transportation of parts is too expensive. So they actually don’t have to invest in a ton of new manufacturing equipment. They could use additive manufacturing, and the cost of capital to enter a new country or new market is reduced. And so you can really decentralize your production and drive down transportation costs as well."

Trecho retirado de "(podcast) 3D opportunity for the supply chain: Additive manufacturing delivers"

Recentemente esqueci-me do tampão do carro na bomba. Depois, tive de ir a uma casa onde, sem factura, paguei 12 € por um tampão da concorrência. Façamos a conta: Preço do tampão colocado à porta da loja + Custo administrativo da colocação da encomenda + custo de armazenamento (aluguer da prateleira + custo do dinheiro empatado + iluminação) vs custo de tampão impresso na hora (amortização da impressora + matéria-prima + energia). Como ficará a diferença? E se em vez de uma peça forem 10, 20, 30?

Água na boca

Isto "Marc Andreessen: 'In 20 years, every physical item will have a chip implanted in it'" bem na senda da série "É meter código nisso!" deixa-me com água na boca...
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Como ex-engenheiro químico, tive oportunidade de trabalhar como operário (cultura japonesa de começar por baixo), como operador de fábrica de polimerização, do mais indústria química que há. Centenas de instrumentos de medição da pressão, do caudal, da temperatura, do volume, da densidade, da humidade, do pH, do potencial químico, ... tantas possibilidades para novas empresas surgirem e, pegando em peças de "Lego", construirem sistemas customizados de monitorização do funcionamento de uma instalação, com upload dos dados para a nuvem em tempo real. Imaginar mecanismos de vigilância em tempo real, de comunicação, de actuação...

Democratização da produção

Lembro-me de trabalhar como Director da Qualidade numa empresa que produzia circuitos impressos. Foi no meu último trabalho, antes de enveredar pela vida de consultor.
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Julgo que já confessei aqui que estive perto de avançar com mais dois sócios para a formação de uma empresa dedicada à produção de pequenas séries. A empresa onde trabalhava estava a crescer muito e a embrenhar-se no mundo da produção para a indústria automóvel, o mundo das grandes séries e das margens apertadas. Entretanto, os antigos clientes, clientes de séries pequenas e de desenvolvimento, eram deixados para trás. Acabamos por não avançar porque um dos sócios meteu baixa e desapareceu de circulação.
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Recordo esta memória por causa disto "Print Your Own Circuit Boards At Home".
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Impressionante exemplo do que é a democratização da produção... fabricar um circuito impresso industrialmente implica(va) tantas operações, tantos impactes ambientais (simplesmente não imaginam a quantidade de químicos utilizados e os desperdícios gerados) ...

• numa CNC furar uma chapa de fibra de vidro revestida a cobre dos dois lados para que os circuitos de uma face se conectem com a outra face;
• numa linha química depositar por electrólise cobre no interior dos furos;
• lavar com ácido sulfúrico;
• aplicar filme fotossensível para proteger áreas onde ficarão as linhas dos circuitos e onde serão soldados os componentes;
• activar o filme fotossensível;
• decapar todo o cobre não protegido; (pesadelo com amoníaco)
• aplicar tinta protectora (normalmente de cor verde) sobre toda a placa excepto nas áreas onde serão soldados os componentes;
• mergulhar o circuito impresso num banho de solda para depositar camada de solda nos locais onde serão soldados componentes;
• separar placas individuais por corte num balancé  
• teste eléctrico;
• controlo visual;
• embalagem;
• entrega.

A última vez que pensei nisto foi há mais de 20 anos... 

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E agora... uma impressora 

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É claro que ainda não é a solução para a produção de grandes séries mas para as pequenas séries, mas para os pedidos para protótipos de máquinas é mais do que suficiente.

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Agora imaginem-me a mim e aos meus sócios, se tivéssemos avançado e não tivéssemos evoluído, a prepararmos-nos para lançar uma providência cautelar, para impedir a entrada deste disruptor no mercado. 

Mongo também passa por isto: DIY na escola

Quando o movimento DIY chega à escola "Homeschooling Goes Mainstream":

"Many of the parents Hennessey interviewed choose homeschooling because of the ongoing failure of a blue model institution: the bureaucratic, sclerotic public school system, dominated by teachers’ unions. Meanwhile, innovative, post-blue education-delivery models—online learning in particular—are providing a viable alternative for parents not content with simply tolerating the poor quality of a system desperately in need of reform. Similar trends are at work in other critical sectors of the economy, from healthcare to transportation to retirement benefits."

Estava escrito nas estrelas e, ainda só é o começo

 Leu primeiro aqui no blogue esta previsão há uns anos:

"O mercado emergente de produtos "faça você mesmo" indicia que a indústria cinematográfica em breve poderá enfrentar o mesmo tipo de problemas jurídicos que a pirataria de música na década passada, refere o jornal "The Wall Street".  Até agora, a maioria das gravuras são feitas por fãs que querem trocar produtos. Mas isso está a mudar pois as impressoras 3D tornam salas de aula em pequenas fábricas e vão surgindo arquivos 3D para fazer brinquedos junto às cópias ilegais de filmes.
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As impressoras estão a ameaçar uma das máquinas de fazer dinheiro mais importantes para Hollywood, o 'merchandising'."

Agora, em retrospectiva é fácil:

• produtos com elevado valor simbólico;
• produtos com margens muito altas.

Trecho retirado de "Impressoras 3D ameaçam rentabilidade dos estúdios de Hollywood"

A marca do século XXI

Tantas ideias que tenho em mente para este postal que, sem disciplina, daria para um longo capítulo de um livro sobre Mongo.

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O material começou a ser recolhido na passada quinta-feira, durante uma viagem de comboio ao princípio da noite, com a leitura de "Protecting IP from 3D Printing: What Companies Need to Know".

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O autor parte do exemplo de como a indústria musical não se soube proteger do digital, para dar conselhos às empresas grandes sobre como protegerem a sua propriedade intelectual, num mundo em que os bits comandam a adição de átomos, através das impressoras 3D.

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Quando li o texto no Cabinet, escrevi:

Então, perante o advento das impressoras 3D em cada casa, em cada bairro, em cada Staples, em cada Worten, o autor só pensa em copiar, só pensa que as pessoas vão copiar!?!?!?! Come on! Copiar é burrice, a produção numa impressora 3D é mais cara que a produção em massa.

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Depois, sexta ao fim da tarde, no Twitter, descobri este gráfico:

Em 1875 existiam nos Estado Unidos mais de 3500 produtores independentes de cerveja. Depois, o comboio, a Revolução Industrial, a produção em massa, o marketing de massas, e a consolidação eficientista começaram a concentrar a produção em cada vez menos produtores, cada vez maiores e mais eficientes. Então, o presidente James Carter, nos anos 70 do século passado, publica uma lei que liberaliza a produção, permitindo que pequenas unidades independentes possam produzir e comercializar cerveja. E foi um Big Bang!!! 

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Agora, em 2015, o número de produtores de cerveja volta ao nível de 1875 e os produtores independentes já representam 11% do mercado.

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Apesar do poder do marketing, apesar da eficiência, cada vez mais gente opta por beber cerveja artesanal. E a cerveja artesanal, copia os sabores dos produtores grandes?

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Não! A sua força está na variedade, na experimentação, no sabor.

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Ainda ontem à tarde, durante uma caminhada, encontrei este artigo sobre as impressoras 3D em África, "The 3D printing revolution":

"In February, a young Togolese entrepreneur, Afate Gnikou, stunned the world by winning first prize at the 10th International Conference of Barcelona’s Fabrication Laboratory. The winning technology was a 3D printer. The design did not come from one of Africa’s top universities or research institutes. Gnikou and his team assembled their prize-winning printer from electronic waste collected in dumpsites around the Togolese capital of Lomé.
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The technology turns traditional manufacturing upside down. Instead of centres of mass production, it makes possible decentralised production by the masses.[Moi ici: Voltar atrás e reler este parágrafo]
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The potential for printing other household products is only limited by people’s imagination and the size of the printer.
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The power of 3D printing lies in tapping into local needs and inspiring creativity. It does not require formal structures to do this, and everyone can participate in the technology. For example, 3D printing can enable rural women to rapidly prototype agricultural tools adapted to their culture, cropping systems and environments."

Em "We Are All Weird - Um manifesto sobre Mongo" sublinho, com as palavras de Seth Godin, algo que escapa a muita gente.:

"The mass market — which made average products for average people  was invented by organizations that needed to keep their factories and systems running efficiently.
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Stop for a second and think about the backwards nature of that sentence.
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The factory came first. It led to the mass market. Not the other way around."

Com as impressoras 3D, com a cultura DIY, com a IoT ou IoE, com a democratização da produção, com a criatividade em acção, por que haverão as pessoas de copiar o que as empresas grandes vão oferecer? Os prosumers vão ignorar a oferta da massa, como os consumidores de cerveja artesanal fogem do "lowest common denominator"
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Esta é a revolução que vai marcar o século XXI, o fim da massa:

"mass market. About mass politics, mass production, mass retailing, and even mass education.
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The defining idea of the twentieth century, more than any other, was mass.
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Mass gave us efficiency and productivity,
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And now mass is dying.
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We see it fighting back, clawing to control conversations and commerce and politics. But it will fail; it must. The tide has turned, and mass as the engine of our culture is gone forever."

Não vai ser fácil, muita gente que trabalha no mercado de massas, que vive do mercado de massas, que imposta o mercado de massas, vai rebelar-se contra a possibilidade de uma liberalização económica anárquica, local, relacional, co-criativa.
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Seria interessante ter um POTUS libertário... nesta altura chave do processo.

Mais um sintoma de Mongo e da aposta vital na co-criação

A generalização do efeito IKEA:

"While some companies allow customers to design products online, most such goods are still put together by professionals. But a few businesses are starting to invite customers deeper into the manufacturing process. It may not create rapid growth, but it can increase loyalty. Working side by side with employees to sand down a surfboard or lay brake lines in a car, customers develop personal relationships with these businesses, based not just on the pleasure that comes from owning a beautiful product, but also on the pride they take in having built something with their own hands.
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Competitors argue that people who can do something themselves won't pay for it. [Moi ici: Conversa típica de elemento da tríade, autênticos "kevins" que só vêem números e esquecem que valor é um sentimento e não um cálculo] But advocates say customers are looking for an experience, not an extended pursuit. "To invite customers in to shape the product they will ultimately own is the highest level of respect,""

Trecho retirado de "Build-Your-Own ... Car? Some Startups Turn Their Tools Over to Customers"

Acerca de Mongo e dos makers

"Between September 2011 and September 2014 the number of manufacturing jobs in London rose by 15%, the fastest growth rate in Britain.
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The growth ... suggests some of the ways that manufacturing is changing.
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British manufacturers are no longer sending work offshore quite as enthusiastically as they once did. Picky customers demand shorter turnaround times; few small companies can afford to wait four weeks for a ship if they want to restock or tweak their products. And the risk of someone copying or messing up a specialist, high-end design increases the farther the work is sent. Meanwhile manufacturing is “hollowing out”, with ever fewer blue-collar jobs and more highly-skilled workers, observes Nicholas Crafts, a professor at Warwick University. Factories are no longer crammed full of workers, but rely on a few individuals looking after advanced machinery.
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In an increasingly competitive global market, being slightly unusual is also an advantage.[Moi ici: We are all weird and proud of it, cada um com a sua tribo] ... Partly because of its apparent rarity, discerning customers are likely to shell out more cash for something which is marketed as having been made in Britain."

Trecho retirado de "The great incubator"

A boca no trombone, revelar o elefante na sala.

Interessantes trechos retirados de "Advances in Production Technology", livro editado por Christian Brecher. No quarto capítulo "Business Models with Additive Manufacturing—Opportunities and Challenges from the Perspective of Economics and Management" de Frank T. Piller, Christian Weller e Robin Kleer. Finalmente, alguém, preto no branco põe boca no trombone.
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Olhem para o ecossistema:

"While most innovation for the manufacturing value chain has been driven by large conventional companies in a BtoB-setting, innovation in the digital value chain has been the result of a growing community of “Makers”, i.e. hobbyists, private consumers, and small start-ups interesting in utilizing AM [Additive Manufacturing] for local manufacture of objects for own use. This community has been very active in developing 3D models, creating an infrastructure for sharing these models digitally in online repositories (like Thingiverse or Google 3D Warehouse), selling 3D printed products on marketplaces, and even developing their own 3D printers for home usage. We argue that this Maker community has become a kind of “economic lab”, experimenting with different designs of value chain and business models, which  also provides insight for large scale industrial use of AM.
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A distinctive feature of AM is frequently emphasized in the popular press: its ability to be placed locally next to potential users, up to the point of locating a 3D-printer into a user’s home.
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Local production may be foremost attractive for innovating users. Past research has shown that users have been the originators of many industrial and consumer products.
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Users can turn to advanced AM technologies to produce smaller series of products for themselves and their peers. User innovation then will be supplemented by user manufacturing, which we define as the ability of a user to easily turn her design into a physical product. By eliminating the cost for tooling (moulds, cutters) and switching activities, AM allows for an economic manufacturing of low volume, complex designs with little or no cost penalty. AM further enables multiple functionality to be manufactured using a single process, including also secondary materials (like electrical circuits), reducing the need for further assembly for a range of products.
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With this production capacity available, user manufacturers may turn into user entrepreneurs. Recent research found that innovating (lead) users frequently engage in commercializing their developments.
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Once user entrepreneurs started commercializing their products, they may have a competitive advantage against established manufacturers as they obtain better local knowledge on customer demand, allowing them to design products closer to local needs. Especially in a situation where customer demand is heterogeneous and customers place a premium on products fitting exactly to their needs, local producers may outperform established manufacturers of standard goods. The benefits of offering a better product fit may outweigh disadvantages in manufacturing costs due to economies of scales achievable by the established firm with its standard offering. A system of entrepreneurial user manufacturers could have large impact on the market structure in a given industry.
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Interestingly, entrepreneurs do not need to acquire their own manufacturing resources. Instead, they might use the existing AM ecosystem and rely on a 3D printing service (like Shapeways, as described before) or contract manufacturer to produce their goods—the interface is rather simple: the product’s 3D design file."

A tal cena do elefante na sala sobre a qual escrevemos "O elefante escondido na sala"

O elefante escondido na sala

Em "Advances in Production Technology", livro editado por Christian Brecher, encontro este interessante capítulo "Hypotheses for a Theory of Production in the Context of Industrie 4.0":

"In today’s business environment producing companies face the challenges of shorter lifecycles and micro segmentation of markets. [Moi ici: Em suma, Mongo] ... One performance indicator for a company’s innovation productivity is the time to market. The faster a company is able to introduce new products to the market the shorter the development process has to be. This compression of the development process is made possible within an Industrie 4.0-environment. ... Due to the new technologies the costs of an iteration and the resulting changes are not as cost intensive as before and therefore lead to a new development process in terms of time and profit
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companies have to offer more and more individualised products in order to meet the customer requirements. ... This trend complicates the division of labour introduced by Taylorism in terms of production and assembly lines, as machines in general are only able to fullfil one specific task. Therefore the complexity of the whole production system is increased. In order to allow even more individualised products the integration of production steps and thus the integration of functions within production systems is inevitable.
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“Continuous process responsibility increases the productivity of the processes” As stated before, many companies face the challenge of more and more individualised products. Within Industrie 4.0 it is conceivable that customisation will be taken even further and companies will not only have to produce customised products of the same kind such as cars, but will have to manufacture totally different products. In this case it is hardly possible to divide the production and manufacturing process into smaller parts in terms of Taylorism. In order to still be able to increase productivity one option is the continuous responsibility of one employee for the whole value creation process of one specific unit of a product. This approach has advantages especially if enhanced by Industrie 4.0.
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Secondly the responsibility for a whole value creation processgives the employee pride in the product he produces as he sees the development of the product. It was shown, that it is important for an employee to see the results of his work, that the results were impacted by his skills, that they solved difficult problems and that they felt they were trusted."

Os dois últimos sublinhados revelam, na minha opinião, o elefante escondido na sala. Estes textos, escritos para empresas grandes, as que pagam a consultoria sobre estes temas, não revelam que... os trabalhadores, na Industrie 4.0 podem interrogar-se, porquê fazer parte de uma empresa, por que não se autonomizar e trabalhar como freelancer directamente para os clientes?

Tudo a ver com Mongo

O André Cruz ontem, numa provocação, mandou-me fabricar chinelos através de "Máquina de fazer chinelos".
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Ao ler o artigo, houve uma parte que me chamou a atenção porque tem tudo a ver com Mongo:

"O negócio de fabricação de chinelos em pequena escala é relativamente novo no Brasil, pois até bem pouco tempo, esse negócio era dominado pelos grandes fabricantes.
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Embora a produção de chinelos por si só já seja uma ótima opção para quem quer ganhar dinheiro, o pulo do gato nesse segmento está na personalização das peças. Se você estampar os chinelos com imagens bonitas e criativas ou então acrescentar detalhes como tiras decoradas com strass, pérolas, miçangas e outros enfeites, o preço dispara e pode chegar facilmente a R$ 50,00. O custo de fabricação aumenta um pouco, mas em compensação a margem de lucro dispara.
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O mercado para chinelos personalizados é simplesmente gigantesco e com uma máquina de fazer chinelos você também pode entrar nesse segmento. Você pode criar chinelos personalizados para empresas, casamentos, formaturas e outras ocasiões, além de partir para uma linha fashion que agrada muito ao público feminino."

Acerca do caminho para Mongo (parte V)

Parte I, parte II, parte III e parte IV.
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A pressão sobre as empresas e os indivíduos e o abaixamento das barreiras e a democratização da produção e comercialização, criam o caldo perfeito para o que se segue "Fragmentation: Staying niche, nimble, and small is the new goal for many". Por isso, é que durante as caminhadas de Agosto, enquanto lia o relatório pela primeira vez, não me cansava de brincar a dizer que estes tipos me tinham copiado o blogue:

"The erosion of barriers to forming and pursuing a business venture will lead to increasing fragmentation in certain parts of the economy.
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As barriers fall, many small yet viable players will emerge, with increasing influence on the economy
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This proliferation of individual and small business ventures addressing highly differentiated industry and consumer needs will drive significant fragmentation in certain parts of the business landscape. Fragmentation (within a domain) is defined by the following characteristics:
• Each player within the domain has a small, addressable market and is focused on a specific niche
• Collectively, players address a diverse spectrum of customer and market needs
• Both players and niches are proliferating within the domain
• No single player has enough market share to influence the direction of the domain
long term
• A relatively modest level of investment is sufficient to enter and sustain position
• “Diseconomies of scale” are in play—it is more challenging for large players to stay in business
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Fragmentation is likely to be most pronounced in the design, development, and
production of new products and services for specific markets.
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As consumer demand for uniqueness or other specialized attributes causes product
fragmentation, another type of fragmentation will occur in the retail space, as retailers cater to specific consumer preferences with a targeted set of niche products.
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They will increasingly offer targeted experiences to niche customer segments
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the number of small investors could grow with the emergence of a different type of angel investor—one who, now that it is easier for individual investors to connect with individual makers, artists, or entrepreneurs, values his or her connection to a specific product or mission more than tenfold returns.
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Fragmentation will be a permanent feature of the business landscape
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Today’s consumers expect offerings that exactly fit their needs and lifestyle requirements. The good news is that digital technologies allow niche products to reach consumers. The bad news is that, given the fragmentation of the consumer base, it is harder to get an offering adopted by the mass market, earn market share, and generate large returns. Indeed, the whole idea of the “mass market” may become less relevant as niche market proliferate. Revenue opportunities may be limited to capturing a relevant niche segment instead of an entire market.
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Increased competition and disruption are shortening product life cycles, reducing the total return for each product.
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a decrease in consumer loyalty. Consumers are increasingly willing to switch between brands to find products that best address their needs.
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Niche players that scale will have difficulty retaining creative talent, given the
increasing ability of talent to pursue other ventures.
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As an organization scales, it often becomes focused on efficiency, tightly scripting processes and governance models and thus limiting workers’ autonomy and creativity.
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fragmentation will be a sustained and even desirable outcome in the new business landscape."

Acerca do caminho para Mongo (parte IV)

Parte I, parte II e parte III.
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O segundo capítulo do relatório "The hero’s journey through the landscape of the future", intitula-se "Pressures on individuals".
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As medidas de curto prazo para aumentar a eficiência das empresas (ver parte III) levaram a:

"have eliminated many of the benefits of working for a large organization and undermined the financial and emotional security of many workers. ...Workers no longer have the historical safety nets they once did, such as life-long employment and pension plans....No one - not even top talent - is safe.Without the benefits of stability and security once associated with employment by a large, established company, many individuals will find themselves pursuing alternative career paths, not always by choice."

No entanto, esta pressão sobre as empresas e os indivíduos, e  "Eroding barriers: Lowered barriers to entry, commercialization, and learning" (terceiro capítulo) cria oportunidades novas.

"The somewhat surprising effect has been to tap into workers’ latent desire for autonomy. In the past, workers sacrificed autonomy for the security and compensation associated with working for a large enterprise.
...
Many are driven by a desire for autonomy, flexibility, or alignment with personal values. Talented, high-performing workers are taking their increased negotiating power to pursue independent ventures or to work at companies where work is more tailored to individual priorities, values, and interests.
...
In parallel, individuals are also beginning to move away from seeking status and meaning through consumption ... many are seeking status and meaning through the ability to create or participate.
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The good news is that the same technological and political forces causing increased pressures and challenging traditional structures and practices have also created the tools and opportunities for participation, commercialization, and learning.
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Times have changed. Today the barriers between the inventor and the market are diminishing, and individuals can own the full lifecycle of their products. Individuals are also finding that as barriers erode they have the ability to participate in numerous communities, unlimited by geography, where they can build knowledge, develop skills, and find collaborators.
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The means of production are becoming more accessible to individuals and smaller companies.
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Tools and physical infrastructure are becoming increasingly accessible. Liberalization in certain areas of public policy is reducing some of the regulatory barriers that have hindered the creation of new businesses.
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it is becoming easier for individuals to independently experiment with and prototype ideas, leading to breakthroughs in physical product design and even medicine. As technology continues to become better and cheaper, more individuals will be able to create small but sustainable economic entities. Even for technologies that have not become affordable, the emerging “sharing economy” is helping to make them accessible.
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The confluence of cheap and accessible technology, shareable tools and infrastructure, and supportive public policy has made it more attractive for individuals to leave large organizations and create their own fragmented businesses.
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With the path to market entry more accessible, technology has again been instrumental to lowering barriers to commercialization, largely through online platforms that connect individuals and organizations to the resources they seek."

Parece uma repetição de conceitos e sintomas que ao longo dos anos temos aqui relatado no blogue sobre o advento de Mongo.
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Continua.

Acerca de Mongo e os makers

Um excelente artigo, "A movement in the making", bem sintonizado com o que se escreve há anos e anos, neste blogue, sobre Mongo:

"The scales haven’t tipped yet. While alternatives exist to almost any mass-produced item, most US consumers haven’t yet explored the full range of possibilities. However, it is only a matter of time before large firms begin to feel the impact of this changing landscape.
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the impact of the maker movement will eventually permeate society, shifting identity and meaning from consumption to creation and blurring the boundaries between consumers and creators. These makers are the consumers of the future and likely the future of consuming.
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This future calls for companies to imagine ways to serve as a platform to connect far-flung consumers with the products they desire. [Moi ici: Conseguem encaixar nestas tendências a recente decisão da P&G? Parece claramente uma resposta a isto antes que seja tarde demais] It means designing new products and services with the help of the people who will ultimately benefit from them.
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the increasing number of niche providers that are competing with large companies for share of wallet. Now that building new products and reaching new customers is easier than ever, competition can and will come from everywhere, not just your biggest competitors.
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The sellers of these unique products are building not just on new production and distribution platforms but also riding the trend of consumers demanding more customized products and services.
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The scales haven’t tipped yet. While alternatives exist to almost any mass-produced item, most US consumers haven’t yet explored the full range of possibilities. However, it is only a matter of time before large firms begin to feel the impact as multitudes of niche products collectively take market share away from generic incumbent products. Ignoring niche products won’t reverse the trend."

Now we're talking (part VI)

Recordar que na parte IV, o Paulo Vaz citava:

"The rise of a fix-it, small-scale economy of repair shops and community 3-D fabs that can be rented by individuals would be a welcome expansion of what I call the Community Economy, the parts of the economy that are neither owned or controlled by global corporations or the Centralized State."

Estes artigos "20+ Open Source Furniture Designs", "37 Marketplaces to Share, Buy and Sell Designs for 3D Printing"e "First Look At Sketchfab: A Youtube For 3D Files" dão um interessante exemplo dos conteúdos que darão gás a Mongo.


Série completa na parte V.

Now we're talking (part IV)

Parte I, parte II e parte III.
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Ontem, o Paulo Vaz mandou-me mais um tijolo para o edifício com "Renaissance of the Fix-It Society?":

"The rise of a fix-it, small-scale economy of repair shops and community 3-D fabs that can be rented by individuals would be a welcome expansion of what I call the Community Economy, the parts of the economy that are neither owned or controlled by global corporations or the Centralized State.
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Such localized repair venues are already proliferating; I have seen stories on such community shops in Germany, where people can either borrow tools to fix their broken appliances or pay a repair person a fee to help them effect the necessary repair."

Now we're talking

Preto no branco a descrição da revolução que está a entranhar Mongo nos nossos dias, na nossa economia:

" a DIY Internet revolution that could upend chains everywhere" (Moi ici: Parece que a minha mensagem/visão está a generalizar-se...)
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(Moi ici: Isto é delicioso, isto é belo, isto é poético)  a trend that has been getting a lot of attention lately. Some refer to it as the DIY - for do it yourself - movement. Venture capitalist Hemant Taneja, looking at it from a different angle, calls it "unscaling." Chesky uses the term "decentralized production." Marc Andreessen hit on the concept in a manifesto entitled "Why Software Is Eating the World."
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It all points to the same idea: Information technology is eroding the power of large-scale mass production. We're instead moving toward a world of massive numbers of small producers offering unique stuff - and of consumers who reject mass-produced stuff. The Internet, software, 3D printing, social networks, cloud computing and other technologies are making this economically feasible - in fact, desirable.
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 the underlying story of Airbnb, information and the major hotels will get replayed in lots of industries in the next few years. Mass production and sameness mean safety when information, intimacy and trust don't exist. As information, delivered globally and cheaply over the Internet, brings back intimacy and trust, the advantage of uniformity at scale slips away.
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"These new economies of unscale will be good for job growth, because they open up thousands of new market niches for exploitation,(Moi ici: "thousands of new market niches for exploitation", ou seja, uma outra forma de dizer Mongo!!! Bingo!!!)
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"To succeed, though, first we have to unlearn what we have been taught about business. We have to think in an unscaled mind-set, where the emphasis is on a greater number of specialized products sold to customers who know exactly what they need." (Moi ici: Por isto, é que me passo quando leio os figurões todos cá da terrinha e descubro que o anónimo engenheiro da província vê mais à frente)
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“In the last 15 years, bits and bytes have been revolutionized,” he notes. “The next 15 years, I think you will see things, atoms, physical industry, services – things in the real world – starting to be changed. All that stuff will change.”"

Conseguem imaginar as consequências?
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Na impostagem, no ensino, no marketing, na distribuição, no emprego, no ...

Trechos retirados de "The End of Mass-Production"

Systeme D

Um texto interessante, um texto que também é sobre Mongo e a economia DIY:

"System D is a slang phrase pirated from French-speaking Africa and the Caribbean. The French have a word that they often use to describe particularly effective and motivated people. They call them débrouillards. To say a man (or woman) is a débrouillard(e) is to tell people how resourceful and ingenious he or she is. The former French colonies have sculpted this word to their own social and economic reality. They say that inventive, self-starting, entrepreneurial merchants who are doing business on their own, without registering or being regulated by the bureaucracy and, for the most part, without paying taxes, are part of “l’economie de la débrouillardise.” Or, sweetened for street use, “Systeme D.” This essentially translates as the ingenuity economy, the economy of improvisation and self-reliance, the do-it-yourself, or DIY, economy.
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It is a product of intelligence, resilience, self-organization, and group solidarity, and it follows a number of well-worn though unwritten rules. It is, in that sense, a system. It used to be that System D was small—a handful of market women selling a handful of shriveled carrots to earn a handful of pennies. It was the economy of desperation. But as trade has expanded and globalized, System D has scaled up too. Today, System D is the economy of aspiration. It is where the jobs are.
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A 2009 study by Deutsche Bank, the huge German commercial lender, suggested that people in the European countries with the largest portions of their economies that were unlicensed and unregulated—in other words, citizens of the countries with the most robust System D—fared better in the economic meltdown of 2008 than folks living in centrally planned and tightly regulated nations. Studies of countries throughout Latin America have shown that desperate people turned to System D to survive during the most recent financial crisis. This spontaneous system, ruled by the spirit of organized improvisation, will be crucial for the development of cities in the twenty-first century. The twentieth-century norm—the factory worker who nests at the same firm for his or her entire productive life—has become an endangered species. Even in China, where massive factories offer a better financial future than farming, they give no guarantee of job security. So what kind of jobs will predominate? Part-time work, a variety of self-employment schemes, consulting, moonlighting, income patching. By 2020, the OECD projects, two-thirds of the workers of the world will be employed in System D. There’s no multinational, no Daddy Warbucks or Bill Gates, no government that can rival that level of job creation. Given its size, it makes no sense to talk of development, growth, sustainability, or globalization without reckoning with System D.”

Systeme D, uma classificação que veio para ficar neste blogue!

Trechos retirados de “Stealth of nations: the global rise of the informal economy” de Robert Neuwirth.

O Estranhistão está-nos na massa do sangue

Se isto é verdade, "Dear Santa: Consumers Prefer DIY Products":

"Consumers value a product more highly when they make it themselves—but only if the assembly procedure is structured in a way that allows them to make creative decisions throughout the process."

O artigo é sobre coisas que compramos e que depois montamos:

"A new study suggests that under the right conditions, consumers value a product more when they have customized and assembled it themselves. But this DIY favorability boost arises only when the assembly procedure emphasizes consumers’ autonomous, real-time decision making; when companies present the project as a long list of chores to be completed, consumers become daunted by the effort required and actually place a lower monetary value on the product." 

Sendo assim, o que esperar da venda de produtos fabricados de raiz numa printer 3D, DIY de raiz?