"Do we feel lucky? Well, do ya, punk?…”

 Ao ler isto: "Salário mínimo europeu vai criar concorrência mais justa na União Europeia", senti-me invadido por um sentimento de ironia

A frase foi proferida por Nicolas Schmit, o comissário europeu do Emprego. Um salário mínimo europeu aplicado em Portugal teria um impacte arrasador:

Mas adiante. O ponto que quero salientar aqui é este:

Este senhor está a fazer o mesmo papel que a CIP e outras organizações patronais fazem nas reuniões da concertação social. Pensam neles e como criar barreiras aos pequenos. Afinal, é a Primeira Lei Arroja da Concorrência: “A concorrência é boa e desejável em todos os sectores de actividade, excepto no nosso”.

Delírio

Em Agosto passado no JdN, no artigo "Postais de verão", encontrei um trecho revelador de que é preciso mais, muito mais reflexão sobre os caminhos para a reindustrizalização da Europa antes de se escrever:

"No imediato, por questões de vantagens competitivas, os salários relativamente mais baixos dos novos entrantes no mercado de trabalho podem favorecer a reindustrialização da Europa;"

Reindustrialização da Europa com base em salários baixos é delírio.
Os jovens europeus estão disponíveis para isso?
Os imigrantes africanos estão disponíveis para isso?

Depois no Jornal Económico, no artigo "Apostar na formação para se poder reindustrializar":

"“Se não competimos com baixo salário temos de competir com produtividade”, frisou João Duque ao JE, lembrando ainda que os portugueses são considerados “pouco produtivos”. [Moi ici: Pouco produtivos porque produzem artigos de baixo valor acrescentado]
O economista acredita que “os países do Leste da Europa que aderiram à União Europeia são os grandes concorrentes, os países que mais facilmente vão poder arrebatar os novos projetos de reindustrializaçao”, isto porque “têm uma tradição industrial, uma mão de obra que muitas vezes é mais barata que a nossa”. [Moi ici: Tudo coisas que têm impedido a Irlanda de liderar este campeonato] “Vamos ter dificuldade em entrar neste campeonato contra o centro da Europa”, referiu João Duque" 

E volta e meia aposta-se na caridadezinha:

"“Não podemos apostar numa reindustrialização se o sistema de ensino quer ao nível básico e secundário ou de ensino superior não estiver alinhado com as necessidades do mercado”, sublinhou ao Jornal Económico (JE) o presidente do Conselho Coordenador dos Institutos Superiores Politécnicos Pedro Dominguinhos""

Com o sistema político e económico que temos, quanto mais formação damos às pessoas mais as apoiamos a fazerem o melhor para a sua vida: emigrarem.

Abençoada pandemia

 “General Motors started Maven, a car-sharing service, in 2016 but had scaled back the effort significantly by the middle of 2019. It started Book by Cadillac—a car-swap subscription service where you could get a Cadillac for a fixed fee of $1,800 a month—but closed it soon after. Walmart bought Jet.com at $3.3 billion and then folded it into its e-commerce business after it got relatively little traction. It’s hard, if not impossible, for the big bus to become a bike or scooter. These companies have big investments in physical assets, such as stores and warehouses and facilities. They have long-standing, fixed relationships with suppliers, dealers, and business partners and are part of existing networks for infrastructure, “logistics, technology, and payment. They have relationships with governments or other public institutions that are difficult to change or break. They have brand equity decades in the making, reputations to protect, and expectations to be filled. And they have organizational structures that are very good at protecting, defending, and perpetuating themselves.”

Organizações que sobrevivem à custa de planos desenhados por amigos em lugares de influência e poder e pagos por dinheiro impostado a saxões contribuintes desgraçados. Organizações que no seu íntimo agradecem: abençoada pandemia!

Trechos retirados de “The Interaction Field” de Erich Joachimsthaler. 

"only about one quarter are truly profit-oriented"

 "“No company has ever failed from making a profit. Most companies are revenue driven, market share driven, sales driven and only about one quarter are truly profit-oriented.”

So if you want your company to not just survive the Coronavirus pandemic but thrive long into the future, you need to understand that pricing isn’t about the price per se, it’s about value.

More importantly, price is about the value your customers place on your product or service.

“Pricing is about value, or more precisely, the value perceived by the customers. If the customer perceives a high value, he or she is willing to pay a high price. If the perceived value is lower, you have to offer the product at a lower price.”"

Trecho retirado de "Why Pricing Is Not Primarily About Price with Hermann Simon" 

Guideline for the future

 Yesterday had an interesting phone conversation with a client about its quality policy. He sent me a first draft and I said I didn't like it. It was a text full of vague statements, applicable to any company in any sector of activity. So, I got back to the charge with my approach. A quality policy can be much more useful if it states:

• Who we are and what we do
• Who we work for
• What do we have to be really good at.

At one point I said to him:

Look at current customers, I know that organizations want to serve all types of customers, which is a mistake, but look and choose 3 or 4 who are the ones that represent the ideal customers, you may not send any customers away, but you want everyone to be like these 3 or 4.

Now tell me, why do these 3 or 4 customers work with you? What attracts them? What should your company bet on to make a difference with these customers?

It was then that the answer really surprised me ...

We are new in this area, we know that we are in an evolutionary path and now we really have no customer like these...

I soon jumped to seize the opportunity.

- So even more important is doing the exercise. Which 2 or 3 customers would you like to win over the next 3 to 4 years?

And my mind was full of metaphorical images developed in more than 30 years of work... like the children in the playground. I think that companies see their customers as children in a playground. They only see the collective and forget that at the end of the day each child goes home to be a singular person to its parents. 

The customer, even if it is a corporate, must be seen as a unique entity that we can, we should look into the eyes.

Another feeling before the end of the meeting was that my client found something that made sense, something to help, to guide his company in the journey to a desired future state.

Quando o mundo muda - o imperativo de fuçar

 Lembram-se de Abril passado "for at least the next couple months every organisation in the world is a startup"? Quando o mundo muda é perigoso manter o pensamento que gerou o sucesso no mundo anterior. Há anos que escrevi esta série "Parte VI – Zapatero e os outros".

"Firms that apply planning strategies (i.e., elements of causal behavioral logic) with a focus on accurate predictions and analysis of changing situations tend to outperform those that do not. With its emphasis on actions guided by predefined goals, causation helps firms to efficiently manage scarce resources that are of particular importance for firms operating in emerging market contexts.

...

Yet, in emerging markets during adverse economic conditions, which are, by nature, extremely turbulent and uncertain environments, formal planning activities fail to produce the desired results. The future stops being predictable enough for forward‐looking analyses, and the conventional strategic and marketing analytical tools fail to provide a robust basis for an effective decision‐making process. As such, in the crisis context, prior plans become largely obsolete and ineffective. Following them leads to SMEs' incapacity to adapt and be flexible in the fast‐changing environment; indeed, in extreme cases, the firms might be better off abandoning any pre‐planned actions altogether, as implementing them are unlikely to lead to an improvement of the situation. This negative effect of crisis on causation's effectiveness gets even more pronounced in the sample of firms that are particularly affected by a macro‐level crisis, which shrinks their resource base while also preventing acquiring the resources in the market. In other words, a severe level of crisis impact on a particular firm might deprive it of the resources needed to implement the pre‐planned activities, thus eliminating the possibility of a positive performance pay‐off from causation.

Moreover, the organizational crisis reduces the scope of possible actions that get into the plans because of the threat‐rigidity reaction. That is, the quality of the causation‐based planning is likely to suffer for the SMEs affected by a crisis in an emerging market. In particular, a crisis limits the decision‐makers' ability to conceive of actions that are different from traditional ones, constraining the scope of analyzed alternatives to only familiar solutions. Firms become strategically “rigid,” choosing to perpetuate established routines and leverage existing competencies, even though they are likely to turn obsolete, leading to the firm‐level crisis in the first place. Thus, in the contexts of major crises, planning‐based logic leads to rigidity that blinds the decision‐makers to emerging opportunities and unexpected courses of action; it inhibits the flexibility and adaptability that are of particular importance for SMEs while they help to eliminate their deficiencies in the midst of crisis.

...

The effectual behavioral logic, [Moi ici: Recordar "The effectual Logic" que traduzo na minha linguagem mais colorida como "fuçar" e na "A vantagem da ignorância" ] on the other hand, imposes losses on a firm in emerging market contexts under low crisis (when planning seems to be a preferable strategy), yet becomes a driver of performance in situations characterized by high levels of crisis. With respect to performance variability in an emerging market, effectuation acts as a “booster” in low‐crisis conditions yet stabilizes the performance in high‐crisis times."

Trechos retirados de "Navigating the emerging market context: Performance implications of effectuation and causation for small and medium enterprises during adverse economic conditions in Russia" 

 

A receita irlandesa

Ontem ao final do dia apanhei este tweet na minha timeline:

O que é a produtividade?

A produtividade é uma espécie de função, é uma espécie de alavanca que transforma entradas em saídas:

Por entradas entenda-se recursos, entenda-se investimento, entenda-se custo.

Por saídas entenda-se produtos/serviços, retorno financeiro, valor monetário, ganho.

Outra maneira de olhar para a coisa é:

Como se pode aumentar a produtividade?

1. aumentando a quantidade de unidades de saída por unidade de entrada - aumentando a eficiência
2. aumentando o valor unitário de cada saída - produzindo saídas diferentes

A opção 1 é praticamente a única que as empresas conhecem. O problema da opção 1 é que tem um poder de alavancagem muito baixo, como aprendemos com Marn e Rosiello. Dizer, como no tweet acima, que as empresas têm de se organizar para aumentarem a produtividade significa confiar na opção 1. 

Quem só conhece a opção 1 e compara a produtividade entre Portugal e países como a Irlanda ou a Holanda não percebe como é que eles trabaalhando menos horas conseguem ser mais produtivos. O erro é não perceber que eles não produzem  o mesmo que nós. Esse é o ponto da opção 2. 

Em vez de correr numa corrida de ratos para conseguir mais 0,1 unidade de saída por unidade de tempo, a opção 2 passa por um outro tipo de corrida, desenvolver artigos com cada vez mais valor unitário associado. 

É facil? Não! É impossível? Quase! Porquê? Porque para dar o grande salto que precisamos, a nível de país, temos de dar grandes saltos a nível de saídas. (Portugal produz em média 23 €/h enquanto que a Irlanda produz mais de 83€/h) E aí o problema é o dos macacos não voarem!

Como se dá o salto? Volto à minha tese, aplicar a receita irlandesa.

Não adianta chamar brutos aos patrões portugueses, esses dão o seu melhor. Quem achar que sabe fazer melhor que avance e lhes coma o negócio. Aqui o tema é como o cão dos Baskerville, não é quem está, é quem não está que é relevante. Acham que a produtividade irlandesa foi obtida à custa de patrões irlandeses e marcas irlandesas?

Para uma empresa em particular, a sua opção deve ser baseada sobretudo na opção 2 à sua maneira, ao seu ritmo. Uma empresa em particular não tem de pensar na produtividade do país, tem de pensar na sua própria produtividade.

A defesa da suckiness

 Acompanhei com um sorriso irónico  a leitura deste artigo "Why the American Consumer Has Fewer Choices—Maybe for Good":

"Some IGA Inc. grocery stores now offer only four choices of toilet paper. A few months ago, before the coronavirus pandemic, IGA’s 1,100 U.S. stores typically carried about 40 varieties. Harley-Davidson Inc. has cut some models from its motorcycle lineup. Outback Steakhouse has stripped roughly 40% of its menu, is studying whether customers care, and may drop some items for good even after the pandemic.

Consumer-oriented companies spent the past decades trying to please just about everyone. The pandemic made that impossible, and now some no longer plan to try. Sellers of potato chips, cars, meals and more have been narrowing offerings since the coronavirus snarled supply chains and coaxed consumers back to familiar brands.

Some executives said they plan to stick with fewer choices when the pandemic fades, saying it forced them to reconsider whether American consumers need such vast choices that sometimes overburden factories and stores.

...

Executives at Kraft Heinz Co., Coca-Cola Co., Hershey Co. and other food giants have said they are trimming less-efficient and less-profitable products, while shelving some in development. [Moi ici: Eheheheh Kraft Heinz... a lutar contra Mongo, a defender a suckiness]

...

Steven Williams, CEO of PepsiCo Inc.’s North America foods business, said the company stopped producing a fifth of its products during the Covid-19 crisis, including lightly salted Lay’s potato chips. He said he and his colleagues spoke with grocery executives as the pandemic deepened, determining that PepsiCo should focus on its fastestselling products.

PepsiCo is starting to bring some items back, but Mr. Williams said he expects its Frito-Lay snacks business to emerge from the pandemic with 3% to 5% fewer products. The company is taking the opportunity to discontinue some items that have few fans or are complicated to produce, he said, making its factories and distribution network more efficient."

Bom para startups surgirem e fornecerem a variedade para as tribos cada vez mais exigentes. 

 

Para reflexão

 "Given how much our culture depends on finding out what’s new, it’s surprising that few have figured out how to be smart about it. If you’re a creator, the truth remains what the truth has been ever since Yahoo tried to sort the web by hand: the best way to make a hit is to build something for the smallest viable audience and make it so good that people tell their peers."

Trecho retirado de "Who is good at discovery?" 

Que sensação de schadenfreude...

 No país onde se espalharam estes cartazes:

No país onde se teimou em fazer dos cidadãos, obedientes seguidores das orientações superiormente pensadas e decididas pelos xamãs (ministros, autarcas, ...).

No país que agora reconhece que afinal, tal como o Brasil, não tem economia para suportar um confinamento quanto mais dois, a maioria dos eleitores, pela idade ou profissão, não depende da iniciativa privada, e pretende jogar bilhar como qualquer amador: "Novo confinamento está a ganhar adeptos".

Que sensação de schadenfreude...

Jorge Marrão começava a sua crónica no JdN do passado dia 15 com esta frase: “Os fundos europeus serão o remédio para manter uma doença incurável da sociedade.”

Talvez um segundo confinamento tenha o dom de acabar com este regime para espanto à posteriori dos defensores desse mesmo confinamento. Quantos direitos adquiridos sobreviveriam a um segundo confinamento?

"Supporting people rather than jobs"

Em Dezembro de 2008 escrevi: 

 "Eu, que não tenho a informação que têm os governos, e que não tenho medo de eleições que não disputo, proporia uma receita diferente.

.

Apoio mínimo às empresas de qualquer sector, os consumidores que decidam quem tem direito a sobreviver como empresa.

.

Em contrapartida, apoio máximo às pessoas e sobretudo aos desempregados."

Julgo que já escrevi aqui no blogue algo do mesmo tipo este ano por causa da pandemia. 

Agora no FT apanho "Support people rather than jobs for a more resilient post-Covid economy":

"What should we protect during the coronavirus pandemic: jobs or the people who hold them? Different answers to this question largely explain huge variations in unemployment figures around the world. In the years ahead, they are also likely to distinguish between successful and sluggish recoveries from the crisis.

European countries have generally focused public support on jobs. Various job retention schemes and short hours programmes have kept employees attached to their employers and off the unemployment totals.

The EU unemployment rate has risen only a little,

...

By contrast, generous US support in the form of enhanced jobless benefits has been given to individuals, until this fell victim to political infighting. With the support attached to the person rather than the job, the US unemployment rate leapt from 3.5 per cent in February to 14.7 per cent in April before falling to 8.4 per cent in August.

The underlying conditions in the European and US labour markets were similar, but the type of support had vastly different effects on the unemployment statistics. More importantly, the gulf between the policy approaches will have meaningful and lasting economic effects.

Early in the pandemic, there were many advantages in the European approach. When coronavirus lockdowns appeared to be a short-term emergency response needed to buy time to beat the virus, job subsidies were a smart way to minimise disruption and eventually allow a return to normal. This sort of public insurance works best when the crisis is short, the affected companies require skilled workers and the jobs at risk are high value.

The longer the world has to live with social distancing and the more sectors are unlikely to return to their former glory, the more important it is to find a different solution. In that case, we need to support workers rather than jobs, helping them find alternatives rather than simply waiting and hoping that their old jobs come back. The US strategy now seems preferable.

Supporting people rather than jobs also works better when the roles at risk are lower skilled because fewer months of training are lost when people switch to other positions. With the pandemic disproportionately hitting the lower-skilled and worse-paid retail, hospitality and travel sectors, it is increasingly workers who deserve our support more than their employers.

...

Europe, meanwhile, should now begin to switch away from keeping people attached to jobs that will not return quickly and towards supporting workers find new employment. As time passes, job retention schemes will, in any case, become more and more unfair, because they provide much greater support for those who previously had jobs than for young people who are entering the labour market for the first time.

Recognising that the pandemic has moved into a new phase, the OECD this week urged all its member countries to adjust their responses to Covid-19 “gradually to support workers rather than jobs”. This was not to cut costs, the international organisation emphasised. Rather, governments should be seeking to give people the best possible chance at maximising their earnings over time by helping them find new roles now."

Claro que em Portugal seremos vítimas de algo ainda pior, os delírios hidrogénicos, as maravilhosas novas pilhas de Baalbek ou ...

"To everything - turn, turn, turn"

Interessante notícia, "Vinyl records outsell CDs in US for first time since 1980s":

"Vinyl records have outsold CDs in the US for the first time since the 1980s, according to data from the Recording Industry Association of America (RIAA).

.

A report on the first half of 2020 across the recorded music industry reads: “Vinyl album revenues of $232m were 62% of total physical revenues, marking the first time vinyl exceeded CDs for such a period since the 1980s.” The report acknowledged that vinyl records accounted for only 4% of total recorded music revenue.

...

US listeners are also increasingly willing to pay for premium services to listen to music ad-free, up from 58.2m in the first half of 2019 to 72.1m in the same period this year.

.

Vinyl’s popularity also continues to grow in the UK, with sales increasing in 2019 by 4.1% on the previous year, though the rate of growth has slowed following the “vinyl revival” boom in the middle of the last decade."

Registos de um percurso:

• Retratos de uma revolução - (Fevereiro de 2011)
• We will be weird (Julho de 2013)
• To everything - turn, turn, turn ... (Dezembro de 2014)
• "Analogia para muitas PMEs" - (Janeiro de 2016)
• Analógico e inteligência emocial - (Dezembro de 2016)

Is the customer always right?

 "The reality is that we are in an era ruled by uncertainty. In one recent survey, more than 80 percent of business leaders said that they were likely to make significant and long-lasting changes in how they organized work and interacted with and served customers. [Moi ici: Remember the punctuated equilibrium and sudden shifts] Opportunities to redesign the business and do something substantially different usually come only after an event such as a merger or when a startup suddenly scales. But the wide-ranging effects of the coronavirus pandemic give all businesses the impetus for change.

.

How do you as a company leader design for this different world? When the ground shifts beneath you, the first thing to do is find a solid place to stand — and that is your value proposition. Customers come to you for a reason: because you’re innovative or top-quality, because you’re a one-stop shop, or because you build deep relationships.

...

1. Segment your customers. “The customer is always right” is one of the oldest and most misleading adages in business. The customer is always right only if you have the right customer. [Moi ici: Something that we defend here long time ago: here and here] Has your “right customer” changed? [Moi ici: Something we spoke about last Monday] Through no fault of yours, businesses you’ve worked with or customers whose needs you successfully met may have temporarily retreated or changed to a new model. How can you still be “right” for each other?

.

Consider Panera Bread — a fast-casual restaurant chain, meaning it’s a cut above fast food but is not at the level of waitstaff service. Panera’s value proposition emphasizes food made fresh from sustainably sourced ingredients. Its right customers have traditionally been office workers: individuals picking up a bagel and coffee for breakfast or meeting a colleague for lunch; groups for which it caters a selection of sandwiches and salads for meetings. That right customer is no longer in the same place; she is probably working from home now, and is likely to continue doing so at least some of the time for the foreseeable future. Lunch around the conference table? Well, maybe next year.

...

You might also find that your company has new right customers: These might be people or companies that have changed in ways that could benefit you if you design ways to connect with them, or that have been stranded by the incapacity of others, or that are worth your attention now although they weren’t before."

Excerpts taken from "Forget about the “new normal”: Design something different"

Sociedade: top-down versus bottom-up

Em pleno desenrolar da crise económica, decorrente do confinamento vivido, o ministro das Finanças de Portugal, mais uma personagem que nunca teve de pagar salários, comunicou ao país: "João Leão defende aumento do salário mínimo "com significado"".

Entretanto, na Grécia que se prepara para voltar a ultrapassar Portugal, "Greece lowers taxes to boost employment"

Pelos vistos o governo de Portugal diz que vai pedir um estudo de actualização do relatório Porter, mas para não ser surpreendido, como foi o governo de Cavaco, já indica o que quer ver no resultado do relatório:

"O objetivo é identificar as “potencialidades da economia portuguesa e definir políticas públicas que permitam melhorar o perfil de especialização e a estrutura do nosso tecido industrial“. Mas há um foco: o Governo está especialmente interessado nos “domínios e setores emergentes, como, por exemplo, nas baterias“."

Quanto às políticas públicas para melhorar o perfil de especialização e a estrutura do nosso tecido empresarial - recordo esta tese. 

Como os macacos não voam, e a via irlandesa é blasfémia para os partidos da geringonça, teremos torrefacção de dinheiro nas baterias et al, as futuras "Artlant".

É tão fácil começar a ouvir aqueles poetas citados nestes podcasts a descreverem mais uma sociedade arruinada.

Sensemaking, punctuated equilibrium, sudden shifts, radical change

 It is interesting to realize that in these last days we are finding more and more articles about context analysis and making sense of the surronding environment. Yesterday found this one, "The Overlooked Key to Leading Through Chaos". 

"Ask executives to list traits of great leaders and they will probably name vision, honesty, or the ability to execute change. Rarely mentioned is one critical capability that leaders need most in turbulent times: sensemaking, the ability to create and update maps of a complex environment in order to act more effectively in it. 

Sensemaking involves pulling together disparate views to create a plausible understanding of the complexity around us and then testing that understanding to refine it or, if necessary, abandon it and start over.

...

Leaders need to know what’s happening around them in order to drive organizations forward. Today this task is harder than ever, given the ever-increasing rate of change in technology, business models, and consumer tastes — and it is now further complicated by the global pandemic and its related economic and political aftershocks.

...

Rather than immediately jumping to solutions, we must start with collecting data and scrutinizing it for trends and patterns that point to better solutions; rather than ignoring warning signs of failure, we should learn from others what those warning signs might be. This is not the time to do less sensemaking — it is the time to supercharge your organization’s ability to do more."

Certainly a symptom that the world in which organizations operate is in one of those phases of the punctuated equilibrium where everything undergoes sudden shifts leading to radical change.

 Other recent posts on the subject:

• Sense, organize, capture and renew
• Covid 19 and context analysis in ISO 9001, and
• "Toto, I've a feeling we're not in Kansas anymore"

Curiosidade do dia

Apanhei esta figura no Twitter via @heldercervantes

Interessante aqueles 4 primeiros e a relação com o resto.

 

Sense, organize, capture and renew

"First, develop a comprehensive set of processes to actively sense new insights (whether internal or external) that could affect the business, and hence identify threats or opportunities [Moi ici: Attention, threats and opportunities are not intrinsec qualities of context issues, they are a function of the current strategy. Covid 19 is a threat or an opportunity? It depends] as early as possible. Second, organize in response to those threats or opportunities; this is likely to involve reallocating resources, revamping processes, filling capability gaps, and aligning the company’s structure and governance. Third, capture value by revising business models and restructuring relationships with other players in various ecosystems. And fourth, renew the organizational capabilities needed to create and capture value by continuing to monitor and assess results and making small adjustments over time — while also preparing for the major disruptions that require a more comprehensive overhaul."

A text taken from "Plotting Strategy in a Dynamic World". A text in line with:

• Covid 19 and context analysis in ISO 9001, and
• "Toto, I've a feeling we're not in Kansas anymore"

Covid 19 and context analysis in ISO 9001

This week I was asked a question by email about ISO 9001:

"Do you think we should consider covid 19 as an external factor?"

Of course yes!!! Which organization was not affected by Covid 19?

It is an event with implications for all organizations. For some it creates risks, but for others it creates opportunities. It changes the external context, modifying both the level of demand, the channels used, and the value proposition for new and different groups of customers, but it can also change the internal context with teleworking and preventive measures on the production lines or during service provision.

As an auditor, I look forward to seeing Covid 19 in the context analysis update.

Today I found this article on the FT, "How coronavirus changed gardening forever". A good example of Covid 19 as an opportunity increasing demand. but also bringing new and different customers looking for different value propositions:

"In early March, when Covid-19 began to take hold of the globe, something changed in the world of gardening.
...
On March 16, the British government ordered people to avoid pubs, restaurants and non-essential travel. That morning, David Robinson, Managing Director of Suttons Seeds in Paignton, Devon, settled in for his usual Monday ritual of checking weekend sales numbers. He had a shock. “I said, ‘I think we have a problem with the sales numbers, it looks like they’ve been double or tripled.“”
.
Converted gardener Sonja Ruetzel: “I was feeling anxious during the lockdown, and gardening makes it look like you have an area where you have a little bit of control”
.
But the numbers were right: suddenly millions more people went online to find out what they could develop. In the weeks that followed, Suttons experienced days when sales were 20 times higher than the same day a year earlier – with lettuce, beetroot and cilantro seeds being the bestsellers.
...
Sowing a seed or renovating an overgrown garden was a balm to the pain of foreclosure, offering hope for some foods that didn’t have to come from an overcrowded and under-supplied supermarket, and the opportunity to improve and to embellish the little pockets of greenery around us.
...
Food culture YouTuber Charles Dowding has seen a huge spike in popularity, with 2.8 million views between March 24 and April 23 and 37,000 new subscribers. The Candide gardening app saw an average increase in the number of new members of 50% compared to the same period last year.
...
This wave of new gardeners is already bringing change to an industry that is slow to embrace a new audience. Garden designer and TV presenter Diarmuid Gavin started a daily live gardening conversation on Instagram during the lockdown that caught the attention of TV production companies, and he ended up doing a six-part TV show. titled Gardening together who tapped his mind to taste.
.
“There is a whole new breed of gardener who is so enthusiastic and hungry for information,” he says. “It’s less about the tricks of journalism and more about listening directly to people trying their hand at themselves.”
.
Will this shift to gardening last or is it a short-lived phenomenon caused by unique circumstances? Everyone I interviewed is optimistic that many of the newcomers will persist.
.
As Gavin says, “What we’ve heard from garden centers, compost makers and seed growers is that these new customers are coming back and coming back. They really want to know how to do it right. They are really invested because it means something to them. Once they have grown a spud, they will never stop. “"

"Toto, I've a feeling we're not in Kansas anymore."

No começo do artigo "Do You Have the Right Sales Channels for a Downturn?" pode ler-se:

"Major economic downturns hit most companies. And manufacturers who sell to their customers through channel partners, such as retailers or value-added resellers, face additional challenges. Under-capitalized partners may be unable to get products to customers — or worse, could go bust. With the current pandemic, the situation appears dire, with even more bankruptcies predicted than occurred during the global financial crisis of 2008-2009.
.
For manufacturers, success when emerging from a major downturn requires rethinking channel strategy. Manufacturers who simply plot a “return to the way it was” may not fare well."

Enquanto conduzia, ouvia este artigo e visualizava o business model canvas:

E perguntava: Só os canais?

Sim, é verdade, os canais são muito importantes como ilustra o que sucedeu aos produtores de vinho, ou aos pescadores que exportam a nata do peixe pescado na costa portuguesa, ou aos fabricantes dedicados ao canal HORECA, durante o confinamento.

No entanto, pode ser muito mais do que os canais.
E os clientes-alvo, continuam a ser os mesmos? Por exemplo, quando recomendo a aposta na nichização, estou a dizer que os clientes-alvo serão outros.
E a proposta de valor, continua a ser a mesma? Se passamos a trabalhar para nichos temos de afinar a proposta de valor para um grupo muito mais apaixonado.
Que actividades-chave serão eliminadas e que actividades-chave serão acrescentadas?
Como se criará uma relação com os clientes?
Que novas parcerias serão necessárias? Que outras terão de ser abandonadas?

 "Toto, I've a feeling we're not in Kansas anymore."

" interpretations, not fact or truth"

Segue-se uma interessante reflexão de Roger Martin que se enquadra não só com o crescente radicalismo um pouco por todo o lado, como com os crescentes exageros da comunidade científica:

"As the world has gotten more science driven and data obsessed, the formal educational system is teaching certainty with ever more confidence. The message being transmitted to students is, crunch the data and you can determine “the truth.” And we wonder why political positions have become more entrenched! Instead we need to inculcate a belief in the benefits of balancing the manipulation of quantities with the appreciation of qualities. Because science requires numeric quantities and mathematical methods for manipulating those quantities to determine “the truth,” we intensively teach the manipulation of quantities—starting with addition, then subtraction, then multiplication, then division, then algebra, then calculus, etc. This causes our students to become highly experienced and skilled in seeking out quantifiable variables and crunching data so as to determine “the truth.
...
Very little in our formal education system helps students become skilled in the appreciation of qualities. It happens in literature, fine-arts, and design courses, in which students are helped to make finer and finer distinctions in the qualitative attributes of their subject matter.
...
As a consequence, we produce students who systematically lack balance. They are strong in the manipulation of quantities and weak in the appreciation of qualities. They are overly certain of the correctness of their models and their analyses based on those models and are equally certain of the incorrectness of opposing points of view. They are confident that they have looked at all data that is relevant to a position and that other variables, by definition, are not at all relevant.
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We need to arrest these tendencies. We need to teach students to balance the manipulation of quantities with the appreciation of qualities. We need to teach them that their conclusions are interpretations, not fact or truth, and that alternative interpretations might be equally meritorious and/or contribute to generating a still more meritorious interpretation. That is the only way they will be prepared to work productively in a complex adaptive system."

Trechos retirados de "When More Is Not Better" de Roger Martin.