"to move forward"

"the people who successfully negotiate their lives in the aftermath of trauma tend to follow well-worn pathways. Those paths run parallel to the two central ideas I’ve been developing. The first is: Want it, need it, have it. You have to desire something and engage in some activity to get it. You can’t give up. You can’t give in. This, of course, means that you get busy and get organized. The second idea is: See one, do one, teach one, which tells us how to go about achieving the first idea. Here, then, are 12 strategies that you can employ to move forward.
...
1. WANT IT, NEED IT, HAVE IT. Devote yourself passionately to an art, a craft, a musical instrument, a language, a horse, or your own education.
...
This step also helps you develop an internal locus of control, which reinforces the idea that you have some influence over your life...
2. BE HERE NOW. This is the strategy of mindfulness
...
The brain has evolved to give us mental models and behavioral scripts that allow us to function on autopilot. And in these times of always-on electronic communication, that tendency is exaggerated. Be here now means: Be quiet. Take time every day to tune out all the electronic noise, the chattering voices that clamor for attention, and then listen to your own mind and body. Tune in to The Stream. Putting in this effort to pay attention means that you’ll be much more likely to seize opportunities and avoid hazards. You may find an intuition, a gut feeling, a sixth sense that saves your life.
...
3. BE PATIENT. Everything takes eight times as long as it’s supposed to.
...
4. BE TOUGH. Learn to suffer well. Richard Tedeschi, a psychologist who treats post-traumatic stress, said that “to achieve the greatest psychological health, some kind of suffering is necessary.” ... In a world where some suffering is inevitable, the only sensible thing is to learn how to deal with it.
...
5. GET THE SMALL PICTURE. People who suffer do not have to suffer all the time.
...
6. PUT THINGS IN THEIR PLACE. Traumatic memories don’t go away. Rituals are one way of controlling when and how you experience them. If the memories are encapsulated in a ritual time and place, they are less able to torment you the rest of the time.
...
7. WORK, WORK, WORK. As Richard Mollica said, staying busy is the most effective means of adaptation after trauma.
...
So don’t sit around brooding on whatever’s eating you.
...
8. SEE ONE, DO ONE, TEACH ONE.
...
9. TOUCH SOMEONE. Staying socially connected is one of the most important and effective adaptations. This means staying close to family and friends and making a decision to be with people who have the right attitudes. Abundant research shows that people who are socially connected are healthier and live longer.
...
10. BE GRATEFUL. Whatever the survival event was, you’re here to deal with it. Maybe, as with a crippling injury, there is no end to that event. No matter how crazy your life seems at the moment, being alive is cause for celebration, for only the living can celebrate. And most people can find much more to enjoy than breathing in and breathing out. Above all, avoid self-pity. [Moi ici: Isto faz-me lembrar as empresas preocupadas porque não vão atingir os objectivos que em Dezembro de 2019 definiram para o ano de 2020. A minha resposta foi, o objectivo para 2020 é chegar ao fim vivo]
...
11. WALK THE WALK. Act as if you’re better. Find small things that you can do that give you a sense of being normal. ... “Even on days when I lacked self-confidence, I chose to put on a smile. I acted strong when I didn’t feel strong—and before long, I was strong!
...
12. LIFE IS DEEP; SHALLOW UP. Humor is essential, quieting the amygdala and reducing stress. Laugh at the world. Laugh at yourself. Having a strong circle of friends and family helps with this."

Trechos retirados de “Surviving Survival: The Art and Science of Resilience” de Laurence Gonzales

"it’s important to realize that we don’t get over it. We get on with it"

"in dealing with the aftermath of trauma, it’s important to realize that we don’t get over it. We get on with it.
...
She did one of the key things that survivors do in the aftermath: Trust the process. Let go of the outcome. Whatever happens, happens. Walk the walk. Pretend. Imagine. She gradually grew stronger. ...
And significantly, being engaged in directed action, carrying out a deliberate plan, gave her a new sense of control that she had been forced to abandon when she was an invalid. Her feelings became more predictable. The rational began to dominate as the peaks of high emotion moved into the background.
It is well known that what you do with the body deeply influences the way you think and feel. If you act strong, you feel stronger. If you act happy, you feel happier. If you move your facial muscles into an imitation of a smile for a time (say, by biting on a pencil), you gradually start to feel better.
...
How well a person does after a crisis has a lot to do with the attitude and personality she has developed over a lifetime. Eileen was lucky. Her focus, optimism, and capacity for hard work combined with her inborn tendencies and created a person who could take something really bad and turn it to her advantage. Several years later, looking back at the events of her life, Eileen reflected on how the experience had helped her reinvent herself.
...
“Rather than letting her experience define her life, she came to regard it as “a platform for growth.”

Trechos retirados de "Surviving Survival: The Art and Science of Resilience" de Laurence Gonzalez

Tendências

"The most focused companies use a variety of practices to align their organizations with a clear set of priorities. One such practice is having disciplined management meetings, including structuring the executive-team calendar to explicitly support strategic priorities.
...
Most companies also find that frequently—and formally—revisiting strategic priorities, a necessity during the COVID-19 crisis, is beneficial.
...
aligning with fewer (and bigger) priorities may also enable an organization to reset organizational and operating structures. Narrowing down priorities can afford organizations a chance to realign their business segments with the top priorities,
...
Many of the shifts in recent months represent a substantial acceleration of consumer trends that had already been in progress for some time. For instance, online shopping is up by 20 to 70 percent since the pandemic began, and supply chains are adapting rapidly. Store economics have been strained for some time, and we expect store footprints to continue to shrink.
...
Finally, the international spread of the coronavirus has accelerated the premium on flexibility in supply chains, including in partner terms and sourcing (particularly nearshoring).
...
Up to 40 percent of consumers have switched stores and brands during the crisis, and many may choose to keep their new habits.
...
The COVID-19 crisis has dramatically increased experimentation with flexible workforce models. Use of video-conference applications has risen by a factor of five to seven, and organizations have become more adept at working remotely.
...
We have also noted the emergence of expedited and more focused decision making across consumer organizations. In our survey, more than 80 percent of executives said that decisions during the COVID-19 crisis are being made faster than before the crisis."

Trechos retirados de "Consumer organization and operating models for the next normal"

Não vai ser nenhum 'lay-off' que as vai preparar para essa transição (parte II)

Parte I.

Quem sofre com os stressors é pressionado a testar alternativas.

"What doesn’t kill me makes me stronger
Shelter in place is a mass extinction event for many industries. Not every business will survive. But what will emerge are businesses that diversified their offerings better positioned to withstand future volatility by providing complementary channels and offerings. And they’re opening up new ways service providers can scale to more customers.
...
The Seven-Step Small Business Pivot Process:

• Create an MVP or MVS, Minimum Viable Service

• Do Customer Discovery

• Rapidly test your idea

• Refine your offering

• Market on all your channels

• Rely on tried-and-true tools

• Share with the community"

Trechos retirados de "Seven Steps to Small Business Recovery"

Não vai ser nenhum 'lay-off' que as vai preparar para essa transição

Na semana passada assisti a um webinar em que Simon Wardley apresentava a sua metodologia.

A certa altura ele apresentou um slide parecido com este:

Uma espécie de Lei da Termodinâmica nos negócios. Se nada for feito, a concorrência perfeita actua e ganha o mais eficiente, o que crescer mais depressa.

Num outro slide Wardley defende:

A comoditização permite libertar recursos para apostar num novo nível do jogo baseado em mais valor ou mais velocidade.

Como não fazer a relação com a evolução do calçado:

Fase 3 (entre 2010 e 2017)
Crescimento do número de empresas  22%
Crescimento da quantidade de pares produzidos  33%
Crescimento do número de trabalhadores  24%
Crescimento do preço médio por par  2%

Vamos entrar numa Fase 4
O número de empresas vai voltar a diminuir
A quantidade de pares produzidos vai voltar a diminuir
O número de trabalhadores vai voltar a diminuir
O preço médio por par vai novamente dar um salto importante

Recordar a série "Quantas empresas". Quantas empresas serão capazes de fazer a transição da fase 3 para a fase 4?

O número de empresas vai voltar a diminuir

Não vai ser nenhum 'lay-off' que as vai preparar para essa transição.

Sacrificar a economia, para salvar a Segurança Social?

Stressors are information. Uma frase que aprendi com Nassim Taleb.

Na última semana tenho pensado no papel do prolongamento do lay-off.

Qual deve ser o papel da figura do 'lay-off'?

Uma coisa é um choque contra a parede e ser preciso tempo para ganhar fôlego, e perceber qual o novo contexto. Outra coisa é perceber que o contexto mudou profundamente e que não vai haver um retorno elástico porque se entrou numa zona de deformação plástica.

A partir do momento em que se percebe que a deformação é plástica, se os turistas não vêm sofre(m):

• a hotelaria;
• o alojamento local;
• a restauração;
• o aluguer de automóveis;
• a limpeza de casas;
• os fornecedores do canal horeca (carne, peixe, legumes, vinho, ...)
• ...

Manter toda esta rede de trabalhadores em 'lay-off' é adiar o inevitável, é mascarar uma situação, é atrasar a procura de uma nova posição competitiva. 

"Stressors are information", são sinais para calibrarmos a quantidade relativa de exploration versus exploitation. Perante os stressors há os que os agarram e, como os ratos do livro "Quem mexeu no meu queijo", interagem com a nova realidade. E há os que, como o Pigarro do mesmo livro, resistem à mudança e solicitam o apoio e a protecção dos governos, gerando toda uma série de doenças por causa do veneno do activismo. Como escrevi na passada Quinta-feira, "Discovery beats planning". Sem stressors, poucos são os que se metem ao caminho, e menos ainda são os que estão dispostos a cortar com muito ou pouco do passado para ganhar uma oportunidade de ter futuro. Isto fez-me lembrar, as "127 horas" de Aron Ralston no Blue John Canyon.

No livro "Antifragile" no mesmo período em que Nassim Taleb usa a palavra stressors também se lê:

"Just as spending a month in bed leads to muscle atrophy, complex systems are weakened or even killed when deprived of stressors....The economic class doesn't realize an economy lives by stressors rather than by top-down control."

Em Janeiro de 2016 escrevi:

Existe um problema de fundo: talvez a nossa forma de trabalhar já não se ajuste à realidade que entretanto mudou.
.
Esse problema de fundo manifesta-se em sintomas: preços baixos; excesso de produção; ...
.
Perante um problema de fundo devíamos optar por uma solução de fundo. Contudo, é mais fácil, é mais rápido, é menos doloroso para nós, procurar um remendo que mascara a situação e diminui a dor provocada pelos sintomas. Só que o remendo gera efeitos secundários que se vão acumular e acumular até que a comporta vai rebentar e não mais será possível recorrer a um remendo... terá de se ir em busca de uma solução de fundo.
.
O tempo de acumulação dos efeitos secundários é o tempo em que o pau vai e vem e as costas folgam. Quando a comporta rebenta, os que ficam com a criança nos braços são os que são chamados de quererem ir "além da troika".
.
Quando os políticos se metem nestas cenas, temos o caldo entornado. Fragilistas encartados e com bolsos muito fundos, à custa dos contribuintes, têm uma capacidade de acumular efeitos secundários muito para além do seu consulado e de moldar todas as mentes a este arquétipo de reacção a problemas de fundo com base em remendos.

Em termos de economia estamos falados, e a economia é que conta. Outra possibilidade passa por sacrificar a economia, para salvar a Segurança Social. Basta imaginar que o dinheiro europeu vá pagar 'lay-off', mas não subsídios de desemprego.

Para reflexão (parte II)

Parte I.

"Covid-19 could spur the biggest economic contraction since World War II, hitting every sector from finance to hospitality. Yet fashion, due to its discretionary nature, is particularly vulnerable. The average market capitalisation of apparel, fashion and luxury players dropped almost 40 percent between the start of January and March 24, 2020 — a much steeper decline than that of the overall stock market.
...
We estimate that revenues for the global fashion industry (apparel and footwear sectors) will contract by 27 to 30 percent in 2020 year-on-year, although the industry could regain positive growth of 2 to 4 percent in 2021. For the personal luxury goods industry (luxury fashion, luxury accessories, luxury watches, fine jewellery and high-end beauty), we estimate a global revenue contraction of 35 to 39 percent in 2020 year-on-year, but positive growth of 1 to 4 percent in 2021. If stores remain closed for two months, McKinsey analysis approximates that 80 percent of publicly listed fashion companies in Europe and North America will be in financial distress. Combined with the McKinsey Global Fashion Index (MGFI) analysis, which found that 56 percent of global fashion companies were not earning their cost of capital in 2018, we expect a large number of global fashion companies to go bankrupt in the next 12 to 18 months.
...
The crisis is affecting our daily lives, instilling anxiety and uncertainty in the minds of almost everyone. Indeed, consumer pessimism about the economy is widespread, with 75 percent of shoppers in the US and Europe believing that their financial situation will be impacted negatively for more than two months.
...
Even online sales have declined 5 to 20 percent across Europe, 30 to 40 percent in the US and 15 to 25 percent in China."

Vamos ficar todos bem! 

Trechos retirados de "The State of Fashion 2020 - Coronavirus Update"

Time Compression

Um dos erros que cometi no início da quarentena, ao trabalhar com uma empresa, foi concentrar a atenção na semana seguinte, na sobrevivência.

Ontem, ao ler

“Time Compression
90-days. The world of decision-making is reduced to choices that make an impact within 90 days or less. This pandemic exploded the ideas of one-year planning and long-term investing in the business. Companies for the foreseeable future will be concerned with the near-term choices that are necessary to survive and potentially secure an advantage in their market. Soft savings and long-term improvements will not generate interest from top-level executives.”

A atenção deve ser concentrada no médio longo prazo. Sempre!
Não é a fazer máscaras e viseiras que as empresas vão ter futuro.

BTW, os trechos sublinhados fazem-me lembrar Schaffer (aqui também).

Trecho retirado de “How to Sell In Place: Closing Deals in the New Normal”

Para reflexão!

Material para reflexão dos fabricantes portugueses da moda.

[Moi ici: Acerca da data do início dos saldos em França] "Débuteront-ils le 24 juin, le 15 juillet ou le 19 août ? La date des soldes d’été fait débat entre les professionnels et le gouvernement. Le sujet illustre la question vitale que se posent nombre d’entreprises au sortir du confinement: que faire des stocks de marchandise non vendue ? Les commerces dits « non essentiels », frappés par l’interdiction administrative d’ouverture, sont cette fois en première ligne, et notamment les vendeurs d’habillement.
...
Le 24 juin était la date prévue avant la crise du coronavirus. Les grandes chaînes de vêtements, les Zara et autres Galeries Lafayette, sont en faveur du statu quo. « La saison est perdue, alors perdue pour perdue autant écouler nos stocks rapidement », explique un cadre des grands magasins, lesquels n’ont toujours pas obtenu l’autorisation de rouvrir leurs navires amiraux du boulevard Haussmann, à Paris, et se retrouvent avec presque quatre mois d’invendus.
...
Les grands de la mode veulent reconstituer leur trésorerie. Les petits, eux, veulent reconstituer leurs marges."

Trechos retirados de "Le débat sur la date des soldes pose la question des stocks du confinement"

"Deux mois de stocks de vêtements du printemps et de l’été à écouler: les boutiques d’habillement sont dans les starting-blocks pour tenter de sauver ce qui peut encore l’être. Dans les commerces indépendants, leur montant est estimé à 2,5 milliards d’euros. Une montagne! Et la première semaine de réouverture ne laisse guère d’espoir… « Le chiffre d’affaires est en recul de 35 %, comparé à la même période l’an dernier. La fréquentation est faible,
...
Toutes les études vont dans le même sens. Selon Opinion Way, dans les « 30 jours suivant la fin du confinement, 45 % des Français comptent réduire leur budget ».
.
En plus des contraintes financières, après du chômage partiel, les consommateurs ont peur d’aller dans les boutiques. Certains ont aussi décidé de changer leur façon de consommer, « car certains achats n’étaient pas utiles ». C’est sur Internet que cette avalanche de promotions a débuté. « Pour la mode féminine, les ventes online, ces deux derniers mois, ont attiré 20 % de nouveaux clients, qui n’avaient jamais acheté en ligne »
...
Ce qui n’est pas le cas des enseignes, à petits prix, qui commandent de gros volumes en Chine. « Les stratégies diffèrent. Certains veulent tout liquider tout de suite, et d’autres restocker des bouts de collections qu’ils revendront à plein prix pour préserver leurs marges», remarque Pierre-François Le Louët.
...
Pour faire baisser leurs coûts, des marques et des distributeurs ont aussi coupé dans les collections de l’hiver prochain. « Nous avons annulé entre 15 % à 20 % de commandes, en réduisant le nombre de références et de couleurs, reprend Emmanuel Pradère. De toute façon, comme les usines viennent de rouvrir et sont surchargées, nous aurions eu des retards de livraison ». Enfin, pour limiter les invendus, les marques comptent sur les « outlet » et la revente à des sites en ligne de déstockage, comme venteprivée.com (Veepee)." 

Trechos retirados de "Les griffes de mode ont une montagne de stock à écluser"

"Discovery beats planning"

"Turns out, that is how most strategies emerge: Discovery beats planning.
...
For more evidence, go back and look at the strategic plan from years ago at your favorite successful company. There is a good chance that the company’s winning strategy won’t appear in that old plan.
...
So how do we deal with the fact that discovery beats planning?
...
A better reaction is to lead your organization through the process of discovery. After all, there is information in those unanticipated consequences for those who know to seek it out.
...
Seen this way, the strategic plan is just the start of the discovery process. This process happens differently at different companies - and often happens unintentionally. But research on how companies evolve has revealed two key steps in the discovery process that are worth highlighting.
...
Step 1: Failed Execution
.
It may surprise you that the discovery process often starts with failed execution. But think it through. When execution of a strategy goes smoothly, we simply enjoy the success. It often requires failure for companies and their leaders to stop and reconsider their strategy.
.
In fact, rather than think in terms of "strategy execution", many prefer instead to describe the process as a hypothesis test.
...
Seen this way, a company's strategy is a theory - one that develops over time as the organization and its leaders learn. Taking this approach, the execution of strategy is really just a test of the strategy's logic. Our strategy guides and coordinates, but in the process it allows us to treat the underlying logic as a hypothesis to be tested. So it is that you will hear people advise you to "fail fast and cheap." They don't really want you to fail; they want you to learn - to develop your strategy during the process of execution.
...
Step 2: Diagnosis and Learning
.
Learning from failure is difficult. It requires considerable effort by leadership to correctly diagnose, to interpret and make sense of what has happened. Sometimes in the process leadership may even discover possibilities they might otherwise not have imagined. But this learning process is fraught with difficulties."

Trechos retirados de "Discovery Beats Planning, so Plan to Discover"

"The chances of inflation may have risen"

Há muitos anos que escrevo aqui que o que deu cabo da economia portuguesa no início deste milénio não foi o euro, foi a China. Por exemplo:

"Com a adesão à então CEE primeiro perdemos muitas empresas que competiam pela nata do mercado interno, porque foram incapazes de fazer frente a marcas mais caras, mas com mais poder afectivo/emocional. Depois, com a China perdemos as PMEs do preço baixo."

A entrada da China no mercado mundial veio controlar a inflação na indústria, mantendo os preços dos bens transaccionáveis baixos.

"Charles Goodhart of the London School of Economics and Manoj Pradhan a business economist, argue that huge structural changes are coming. The deflationary environment created by rising Chinese exports and globalisation is over. Wage pressure will increase. When the surge in spending fuelled by fiscal and monetary largesse spills over into inflation, it will be viewed as temporary, or just welcome, as the real burden of debt is eroded.
.
Among the beneficiaries of this erosion of the real burden of debt will, the authors add, be governments. Politicians will be furious if central banks raise interest rates above the growth of nominal GDP, and force fiscal retrenchment beyond that needed to curb the huge fiscal deficits created (rightly) by the crisis programmes. Popular resistance to a repetition of the public spending cuts that came after the financial crisis will be intense. Yet so, too, will be resistance to the higher taxes needed to shrink the fiscal deficits as full employment is restored.
.
Governments will then probably demand cheap central bank finance, probably reinforced by other forms of financial repression, including capital controls. They will be justified as a desirable expression of national sovereignty. any of this inevitable? Certainly not! Sensible governments should finance all their debt at today's ultra-cheap rates with the longest possible maturities. As and when the economy recovers, they should also raise taxes on those who can afford them. The adverse structural shifts envisaged by messrs Goodhart and Pradhan are possible. But further erosion of the position of labour, as automation accelerates, and a continued savings glut, as crisis-hit investment remains weak, seem even more probable. Central bank independence may well survive. Many still back it. Many countries that cannot borrow in their own currencies will certainly default, with members of the eurozone in a halfway house. Beyond that, the future is uncertain. Yes, the pandemic has created some features of a war economy. The chances of inflation may have risen. But they are still modest. Hedge against it Do not bet your shirts on it."

Trechos retirados de "Why inflation might follow the pandemic"

" the primacy of operant resources over operand resources in value co-creation"

Parte I.

"Axiom 3 - All social and economic actors are resource integrators.
As explained, S-D logic argues that all actors provide service (apply resources for other’s benefit) to receive similar service from others (other actors applying their resources) in the process of co-creating value. This means that all actors are both providers and beneficiaries of service and that the activities and characteristics of actors are not fundamentally dichotomous, as implied by the conceptual division of economic actors into producers and consumers.
...
Resources, in S-D logic, are viewed “as anything, tangible or intangible, internal or external, operand or operant, an actor can draw on for increased viability”. The literature regarding resources in S-D logic recognizes that two broad types of resources are being integrated. Operand resources are resources, such as natural resources, that require action taken upon them to be valuable. Operant resources are resources, such as knowledge and skills, are capable of acting on other resources to contribute to value creation. Aligned with many of the resource-based views, S-D logic emphasizes the primacy of operant resources over operand resources in value co-creation. In other words, although operand resources often contribute to the cocreation of value, without the application of operant resources, such as knowledge, skills and competencies, value co-creation does not occur.
...
It is important understand that, in S-D logic, potential resources are realized in the context and through the application of other resources. In other words, resources are not, they become.
...
This means that resources such as knowledge and skills, and the availability of other resources determine the resourceness of potential resources"

Trechos retirados de "Service-Dominant Logic: Foundations and Applications"

As banheiras pequenas enchem depressa (parte II)

Parte I.

Neste artigo, "Can fast fashion’s $2.5tn supply chain be stitched back together?", pode-se encontrar este gráfico:

O qual logo me fez recordar o efeito do banhista gordo. Abandonando a China, onde encontrar alternativas de produção?

"the application of specialized resources for the benefit of other actors" (I)

"Furthermore, understanding exchange as a process also brings forth additional insight about the purpose of exchange. It becomes clear that aim of exchange is not to move around products or other exchange objects, but to share applied knowledge and skills with other actors to support what they are trying to accomplish. In other words, the purpose of exchange is to enable reciprocal value creation. As this is possible only through collaboration and exchange with a large number of actors, S-D logic calls this process value co-creation and the collectives, among which value cocreation occurs, service ecosystems.
...
in S-D logic the purpose of exchange is value co-creation, which is facilitated through the exchange of service, that is, the application of specialized resources for the benefit of other actors (and themselves), rather than goods, which are only occasionally used in the transmission of this service. This shift in how exchange is understood also implies a radical change in the meaning of value. G-D logic views value as something determined and produced by the producer that can be embedded in goods and defined in terms of its “exchange value”. Alternatively, Vargo and Lusch (2004) proposed that value is actually determined by the beneficiary on the basis of the “value in use” that results from the beneficial application of the resources (e.g. knowledge and skills) exchanged...
S-D logic also implies that the beneficiary is always an active participant in its own value creation process – that is, a co-creator of value. In other words, for value to be perceived by the beneficiary and, thus, value creation to occur, the beneficiary’s (e.g. customer) operant resources must also be integrated."

Trechos retirados de "Service-Dominant Logic: Foundations and Applications"

“Darwinian shakeout”

"McKinsey estimates that up to a third of global fashion players, such as brands and department stores, will not survive the crisis.
...
Shuttered stores on London's Oxford Street very quickly transmit to closed factories in Bangladesh and Vietnam and stockpiles at the cotton farms of Central India.
.
The damage caused by the lockdowns in markets such as the UK raises the question of whether those supply chains can be stitched back together again — even in the unlikely event of a quick rebound in demand from consumers able to freely visit shops.
...
Despite the torrid experience of bricks-and-mortar retailers in recent times, McKinsey last year labelled the global fashion industry one of the “rare economic success stories” of the past decade.
.
But behind that headline is a story of extreme consolidation. In 2019, 97 per cent of profits in the industry were generated by just 20 companies, including Inditex, the world’s largest clothing retailer, and sportswear retailer Nike — a dominance that is only likely to be tightened in a recession, says Achim Berg, who leads McKinsey’s consulting work on fashion.
.
He says that both fashion retailers and suppliers need to brace themselves for a “Darwinian shakeout”.
...
Supply chains will be different in the future, Mr Berg believes. His clients are already trying to shorten the time it takes for an ordered shirt to arrive in shops, boosting their flexibility in the face of demand shocks. “The last couple of weeks have shown the vulnerability of the supply chain . . . and accelerated the realisation that you need to be closer to the source,” he says."

Só referi um tema do artigo. Impressionante o à vontade como marcas encomendaram, receberam e não pagam.

Trechos retirados de "Can fast fashion’s $2.5tn supply chain be stitched back together?"

Subir na escala de valor (parte II)

Parte I.

Como é que uma empresa que quer subir na escala de valor, apresentando-se como especialista, vê o mundo?

No caso de uma empresa que trabalha B2B usei esta figura para ilustrar a sua situação:

Uma empresa que aspira a ser especialista, aspira a deixar de ser vista como um produtor de produtos, e pretende passar a ser vista como um fornecedor de conhecimento. Uma empresa que embebe conhecimento nos produtos que entrega (daí a imagem do camião que leva produto a granel com código binário, metáfora para o conhecimento que carrega).

Um comercial da empresa quando aborda um cliente não vende produtos, vende conhecimento. Quando um comercial da empresa interage com um cliente não começa nem pelos produtos nem pelos preços, começa pelos resultados que o cliente procura para o seu negócio.

Os clientes não são todos iguais. Por causa do tipo de produtos que produzem e vendem, por causa do conhecimento maior ou menor que têm, por causa do tipo de clientes que têm, por causa da forma como encaram a vida e o mundo dos negócios, os clientes não olham para a oferta da empresa da mesma forma. Podemos criar um gráfico onde procuramos localizar a situação em que se encontra cada um dos clientes actuais ou potenciais:

No eixo das abcissas medimos a maior ou menor importância que o cliente dá ao papel da oferta actual da empresa ou da concorrência. 

No eixo das ordenadas medimos a maior ou menor satisfação que o cliente sente com a oferta actual da empresa ou da concorrência.

A título de exemplo consideremos quatro clientes actuais ou potenciais:

O Cliente A está medianamente satisfeito com a oferta que tem, mas não lhe dá muita importância.

O Cliente B está medianamente satisfeito com a oferta que tem, mas também lhe dá uma importância mediana.

O Cliente C está insatisfeito com a oferta que tem, e ao mesmo tempo dá-lhe muita importância.

O Cliente D está satisfeito com a oferta que tem, e ao mesmo tempo dá-lhe muita importância.

Podemos dividir os clientes em três grupos:

 Generalizando:

 Os clientes sobre-servidos são aqueles que estão satisfeitos com o que têm e até estão a receber mais do que precisam. É nestas situações que vulgarmente se fala de disrupção. Por exemplo, os clientes das companhias aéreas low-cost abdicam de toda uma série de mordomias para poderem em contrapartida usufruir de uma viagem rápida e barata. Por exemplo, o Cliente A se pertencesse à concorrência podia ser aliciado com uma oferta mais básica e mais barata.

Os clientes equilibrados são aqueles que recebem em função do que pagam, têm uma situação equilibrada. Por exemplo, os Clientes B e D se pertencessem à concorrência podiam ser aliciados basicamente por uma oferta equivalente, mas mais barata.

Os clientes sub-servidos são aqueles que estão insatisfeitos com o que têm. A oferta actual é insuficiente, não está à altura das expectativas e da importância que lhe dão. O Cliente C se pertencesse à concorrência podia ser aliciado com uma oferta superior tecnicamente, mesmo a um preço superior.

Na primeira figura lá em cima represento o cliente desta maneira:

Aquelas metafóricas rodas dentadas têm um significado.

O cliente recebe os inputs, operand resources, recursos que requerem que acções sobre eles sejam realizadas para que o valor possa emergir na vida do cliente. Essas acções serão tanto ou mais preciosas quanto os operant resources que o cliente dispõe, conhecimentos e habilidades, para actuar sobre os operand resources.

Há uma grande diferença entre os operand resources e os operant resources.
Os operand resources são usados pelo cliente e gastam-se, o cliente tem de os voltar a comprar.
Os operant resources são usados pelo cliente e ficam a ser sua propriedade para poderem voltar a ser usados.

É inevitável que aconteça esta evolução entre cliente e fornecedor sempre que este transmita conhecimento:
Após um período de elevada gratidão inicial, em que o cliente reconhece que o novo conhecimento adquirido lhe permite atingir novos resultados, à medida que esse conhecimento deixa de ser "mistério" e evolui para uma heurística ou algoritmo:

À medida que esse conhecimento passa a ser integrado na vida do cliente, a gratidão vai sofrendo uma erosão:

Consideremos agora a situação de uma empresa com capacidade técnica, capaz de desenvolver novos produtos, realmente superiores. Como é que o conhecimento transmitido ao cliente se conjuga com os resultados obtidos

O conhecimento actual conjugado com o produto actual dá os resultados actuais - ponto de partida, a situação actual.

Muitas empresas lançam novos produtos no mercado, mas não acautelam a transmissão de conhecimento. Os resultados são um ponto de interrogação. Quanto mais o cliente tiver de processar o produto para atingir os resultados que deseja, mais difícil será atingir melhorias. Por vezes, como o conhecimento que dispõe não é compatível com as acções necessárias sobre o novo produto, os resultados até podem piorar.

Algumas empresas oferecem um produto semelhante ao da concorrência, mas apostam na transmissão de conhecimento que permite ao cliente melhorar o precessamento do produto e, consequentemente, a obtenção de resultados para o seu negócio. Isto também ocorre quando um comercial sem formação é substituído por um outro com mais conhecimento e mais capacidade de o transmitir.

Melhorias potencialmente importantes ocorrem quando uma empresa conjuga a transmissão de mais conhecimento com a oferta de um novo produto, com potencialidades superiores.

Onde é que isto nos leva?

Uma empresa que quer ser reconhecida como especialista e subir na escala de valor:

• Tem de trabalhar com clientes sub-servidos, e nem todos os potenciais clientes estão neste campeonato. E há muitos bons negócios e clientes que não estão neste campeonato;
• Assim como tem de continuar a produzir produto: tem de continuamente procurar novo conhecimento que possa transmitir;
• Assim como tem de continuar a produzir produto: tem de continuamente procurar desenvolver novos produtos realmente inovadores.

A empresa que quer ser reconhecida como especialista e subir na escala de valor tem de se concentrar no mercado dos clientes tipo-C, os clientes sub-servidos. É com eles que se podem praticar as melhores margens, não porque eles sejam esbanjadores, mas porque são os que fazem contas e reconhecem o papel da oferta na melhoria dos seus resultados. Por isso, vêem o preço a mais que pagam como um investimento para melhorarem os seus resultados.

Acima escrevi:

Uma empresa que aspira a ser especialista, aspira a deixar de ser vista como um produtor de produtos, e pretende passar a ser vista como um fornecedor de conhecimento. 

Se olharmos para o negócio dos clientes sub-servidos a partir do seu ponto de vista acerca do conhecimento podemos sistematizar as coisas desta forma:

No quadrante 1 estão as coisas que o cliente sabe que sabe.
No quadrante 2 estão as coisas que o cliente sabe, mas nem sabe que sabe.

O que nos interessa são os restantes quadrantes:

No quadrante 3 estão as coisas que o cliente sabe que não sabe. Por exemplo, um cliente que sabe que precisa de produzir mais depressa, que precisa de ser mais produtivo, que precisa de começar a produzir um novo produto, ou de operar um novo equipamento que exige diferentes matérias-primas, ou de atingir novos níveids de desempenho. O cliente tem um problema, tem um desafio, tem uma aspiração e precisa de conhecimento para passar para o próximo nível do jogo.

No quadrante 4 estão as coisas que o cliente não sabe que não sabe. Por exemplo, resultados de investigação científica, novos produtos, novos aditivos que permitem alargar, esticar a fronteira do que se julgava possível a nível do desempenho, a nível dos resultados para o negócio desses clientes.

A empresa que quer ser reconhecida como especialista e subir na escala de valor é a empresa que se concentra no mercado dos clientes tipo-C, os clientes sub-servidos e se concentra a desenvolver a imagem de que a empresa e os seus comerciais e técnicos são os melhores fornecedores para fornecer o conhecimento em falta:

A empresa que quer ser reconhecida como especialista e subir na escala de valor é a empresa que se oferece para ajudar a colmatar lacunas e a empresa que periodicamente comunica descobertas.

Os comerciais e técnicos da empresa sabem que o que interessa não é o produto, o que interessa é o que o produto pode fazer pelo cliente. O cliente usa o produto nas suas operações, o cliente como que contrata o produto para que este lhe preste um serviço para melhor atingir os seus resultados. Em vez de se concentrarem no output da sua produção e no estrito cumprimento das especificações, as organizações (no caso de B2B) devem focar-se nos resultados do negócio dos seus clientes e na sua perspectiva.

Os comerciais e técnicos da empresa sabem que o que interessa não é o produto, os produtos são copiáveis. Os comerciais e técnicos da empresa sabem que o que interessa é a interacção onde valor é co-criado:

Sempre que a interacção não for necessária é porque é não preciso transmitir conhecimento... e sem transmissão de conhecimento mais tarde ou mais cedo tudo é sugado para o quadrante da competição pelo preço:

A empresa que quer ser reconhecida como especialista e subir na escala de valor deve fazer uma reflexão, uma espécie de exame de consciência, estará preparada para ser um concorrente de eleição a servir este tipo de clientes sub-servidos?

Há uma frase que uso muitas vezes: os macacos não voam, os macacos trepam às árvores. Uma empresa que não tem algo no seu ADN para ser especialista, não deve enveredar por essa via. Afinal, a figura que se segue:

Típica dos livros de Gestão, não funciona para as PME. As PME têm de começar pelo fim, pelo que têm à mão, pelas suas vantagens competitivas.

Continua.

"Letting it happen is not making it happen"

Há empresas que têm um modelo de negócio. Depois, o mundo muda e elas, em dez de mudarem de modelo de negócio, investem com ainda mais energia e empenho no modelo que têm em mãos e está a naufragar.

"Man is a thinking reed but his great works are done when he is not calculating and thinking. “Childlikeness” has to be restored….
...
Perhaps this is why it is said that great poetry is born in silence. Great music and art are said to arise from the quiet depths of the unconscious, and true expressions of love are said to come from a source which lies beneath words and thoughts. So it is with the greatest efforts in sports; they come when the mind is as still as a glass lake.
...
Letting it happen is not making it happen. It is not trying hard. It is not controlling your shots.
...
[Moi ici: Segue-se um trecho que me faz recordar os ratinhos no livro "Quem mexeu no meu queijo". Não há julgamento sobre a situação, não há recriminações. O mundo mudou e ... é preciso mudar] Fortunately, most children learn to walk before they can be told how to by their parents. Yet, children not only learn how to walk very well, but they gain confidence in the natural learning process which operates within them. Mothers observe their children’s efforts with love and interest, and if they are wise, without much interference.
...
When the child loses his balance and falls, the mother doesn’t condemn it for being clumsy. She doesn’t even feel bad about it; she simply notices the event and perhaps gives a word or gesture of encouragement. Consequently, a child’s progress in learning to walk is never hindered by the idea that he is uncoordinated.
...
The changes that Sally made in her forehand lay in the fact that she gave Self 2 a clear visual image of the results she desired. Then she told her body in effect, “Do whatever you have to do to go there.” All she had to do was let it happen.” [Moi ici: Quando é preciso mudar de modelo de negócio o que é preciso é deixar o sistema falar, perceber onde estão os sinais do que pode ser uma janela de oportunidade para o futuro]

Trechos retirados de “The Inner Game of Tennis” de W. Timothy Gallwey,

" the gift of adversity"

"people who have already experienced trauma can be expected to respond more readily and more powerfully to insults in the future. Emotional priming works like this: If the puppy makes a mess on the floor while you’re trying to prepare dinner for the 12 guests who will soon arrive, you’re more apt to yell at your six-year-old when she spills her milk. That effect goes away. In a little while, you won’t be so irritable.
...
He was planning ahead. He had a future in his mind, and good survivors always concentrate on the present but plan for the future.
...
put the experience away and went on with life. They were able to turn their minds away from the trauma and go on with other things. They had the advantage of having grown up during the Great Depression. They had the gift of adversity that Micki had."

Trechos retirados de “Surviving Survival: The Art and Science of Resilience” de Laurence Gonzales.

Patentes e rentismo

Recordo:

• Num mundo sem patentes... tudo é acelerado (Novembro de 2019)
• Num mundo sem patentes (Setembro de 2019, como uma lista que recua até Novembro de 2011)

Agora, em "Innovation Can’t Be Forced, but It Can Be Quashed" encontro:

"It is commonplace today to say that innovation is speeding up, but like much conventional wisdom, it is wrong. Some innovation is speeding up, certainly, but some is slowing down.
...
As the investor Peter Thiel has pointed out, innovation is now largely a digital phenomenon, because bits are lightly regulated and atoms heavily regulated. On all sides we hear arguments that innovation threatens jobs, the environment, privacy and democracy.
...
The Austrian economist Joseph Schumpeter’s “perennial gale of creative destruction” has been replaced by the gentle breezes of rentseeking. Two recent books argue that big companies in cozy cahoots with big government increasingly shy away from change, sheltered against competition by regulation and intellectual property rights.
...
A big obstacle to innovation is the slow pace of regulatory licensing. One 2012 study found that a medical device takes around 21 months to get through the regulatory process in the U.S., from application to market, an  70 months in Germany.
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Surprisingly, there is no good evidence that patents are helpful, let alone necessary, in encouraging innovation. A 2002 study by Josh Lerner, an economist at Harvard Business School, looked at 177 cases of strengthened patent policy in 60 countries over more than a century, finding that “these policy changes did not spur innovation.”
...
The expiration of patents often results in a burst of innovation, as with 3-D printing, where the recent lapse of three key patents has resulted in notable improvements in quality and a drop in price."

El coronavirus actúa como acelerador de cambios que ya estaban en marcha

"El coronavirus actúa como acelerador de cambios que ya estaban en marcha...
los riesgos sociales, políticos, económicos e industriales tienden cada vez más a escapar de las instituciones de control y protección de la sociedad industrial.
...
Igual que algunas guerras fueron un acelerador del progreso tecnológico e industrial de países como Estados Unidos, Reino Unido o Alemania, por no hablar de su efecto en antiguas civilizaciones, el crack del Covid-19 puede acelerar transformaciones que ya estaban en marcha."

Acerca da China e da globalização:

• "From peak China to China pique"

"The so-called trade war was already stirring a much more unfavourable external environment for China from the standpoint of trade and foreign direct investment. The pandemic has jolted governments around the world to re-think China relations, and confirmed the doubts of companies already reconsidering supply chain strategies and the vulnerability of sole-source suppliers.
...
There is no question, though, that the coronavirus pandemic has opened up a new and dangerous front in tensions between China and the West, which will cast long shadows over the global system long after the worst of the pandemic is behind us. It has also rocked China’s economy in ways that no one predicted, compounding the structural headwinds that were in any event pointing to a decade of much slower economic growth. More suddenly than we could have expected, China now has a major unemployment problem. From an economic perspective, we may have arrived at what we could call ‘Peak China’."

• "Covid-19’s blow to world trade is a heavy one"

"Take medical supplies. In 2018 China alone supplied about 42% of the world’s exports of personal protective equipment. Almost three-quarters of Italy’s imported blood thinners come from China; so do 60% of the ingredients for antibiotics imported by Japan. Such dependence on any country seems unwise. Such dependence on China, which has been known to abuse its market dominance, seems idiotic. Smaller, poorer countries have little choice but to build stockpiles. But the bigger, richer countries and blocs are thinking of ways to shake up the status quo.
...
Those businesses, and their peers, are currently in crisis-management mode. When the dust gets to settling, they have some reconfiguring to do. Adjusting their supply chains will probably accelerate the trend towards regionalisation, particularly in complex cases where assemblies cross borders repeatedly. This will have the knock-on effect, desired by some, of reducing the centrality of China.
...
other strategy companies are developing: globalisation with fewer Chinese characteristics. Last October a survey of American multinationals found that around 40% were either considering or in the process of relocating manufacturing or sourcing outside of China. A more recent survey suggested that 24% were planning to adjust their sourcing outside of China as a result of covid-19.
.
For some companies, this is not a straightforward retrenchment, but an embrace of what is known as “China+1”. The strategy is still to use Chinese suppliers, not least so as to go on serving the very attractive Chinese market, but also to encourage suppliers elsewhere in case something goes wrong.
...
In the longer run, and once companies have more cash to spare, it is possible that they will attempt to set up new clusters of production. Mike Jette of GEP, a supply chain consultancy, reports hearing from some electronics manufacturers that they want to get 30-40% of their supply chain within the same region as the customer, leaving around half in China."

Acerca do futuro do retalho

• "Coronavirus Finishes the Retail Reckoning That Amazon Started" 

"Amazon.com hurt many retailers. Coronavirus will finish some of them off.
.
Even as malls and stores begin to reopen, the Covid-19 pandemic has taken a toll on an industry already battered by the shift to online shopping. More than two million retail jobs disappeared in April as many stores closed.
...
About 100,000 stores are expected to close over the next five years—more than triple the number that shut during the previous recession—as ecommerce jumps to a quarter of U.S. retail sales from 15% last year, UBS estimated. The turbocharged shift to e-commerce is expected to further depress profit margins and accelerate a shakeout in a country that already had too much bricks-and-mortar space for an increasingly digital world.
...
“If this isn’t the retail apocalypse I don’t know what would be,” said Sarah Wyeth, the lead analyst for retail and restaurants at S&P Global Ratings. Ms. Wyeth estimated there is a 50% chance that 19 retailers tracked by S&P will default on their debt. Five retailers defaulted during the 2008 recession.
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“Going back over the last 20 years, the worst year for closures was 2009 when 2% of stores closed,” said UBS apparel and footwear analyst Jay Sole. “Our forecast calls for 2% of stores to close every year into 2025.”"