"The chances of inflation may have risen"

Há muitos anos que escrevo aqui que o que deu cabo da economia portuguesa no início deste milénio não foi o euro, foi a China. Por exemplo:

"Com a adesão à então CEE primeiro perdemos muitas empresas que competiam pela nata do mercado interno, porque foram incapazes de fazer frente a marcas mais caras, mas com mais poder afectivo/emocional. Depois, com a China perdemos as PMEs do preço baixo."

A entrada da China no mercado mundial veio controlar a inflação na indústria, mantendo os preços dos bens transaccionáveis baixos.

"Charles Goodhart of the London School of Economics and Manoj Pradhan a business economist, argue that huge structural changes are coming. The deflationary environment created by rising Chinese exports and globalisation is over. Wage pressure will increase. When the surge in spending fuelled by fiscal and monetary largesse spills over into inflation, it will be viewed as temporary, or just welcome, as the real burden of debt is eroded.
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Among the beneficiaries of this erosion of the real burden of debt will, the authors add, be governments. Politicians will be furious if central banks raise interest rates above the growth of nominal GDP, and force fiscal retrenchment beyond that needed to curb the huge fiscal deficits created (rightly) by the crisis programmes. Popular resistance to a repetition of the public spending cuts that came after the financial crisis will be intense. Yet so, too, will be resistance to the higher taxes needed to shrink the fiscal deficits as full employment is restored.
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Governments will then probably demand cheap central bank finance, probably reinforced by other forms of financial repression, including capital controls. They will be justified as a desirable expression of national sovereignty. any of this inevitable? Certainly not! Sensible governments should finance all their debt at today's ultra-cheap rates with the longest possible maturities. As and when the economy recovers, they should also raise taxes on those who can afford them. The adverse structural shifts envisaged by messrs Goodhart and Pradhan are possible. But further erosion of the position of labour, as automation accelerates, and a continued savings glut, as crisis-hit investment remains weak, seem even more probable. Central bank independence may well survive. Many still back it. Many countries that cannot borrow in their own currencies will certainly default, with members of the eurozone in a halfway house. Beyond that, the future is uncertain. Yes, the pandemic has created some features of a war economy. The chances of inflation may have risen. But they are still modest. Hedge against it Do not bet your shirts on it."

Trechos retirados de "Why inflation might follow the pandemic"