sábado, janeiro 14, 2017

Preparada?

"tal como aconteceu na Índia de Quinhentos e no Brasil de Setecentos, as preocupações de dirigentes, intelectuais e cidadãos passam ao lado. O que interessa nas discussões é a troika, o euro, os políticos, a banca, a Constituição, a justiça, a imprensa, a educação. O essencial é a busca de culpados, não de soluções. Cada um protesta porque o que tem é menos do que lhe foi prometido e do que acha que devia ter. Como nos tempos da pimenta e do ouro, não se pensa se o que se tem é mais ou menos do que aquilo que se produziu.
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Portugal é semieuropeu, com regras, mecanismos e reivindicações da União, mas sem o correspondente aparelho económico. Esta é a nossa doença: exigir o que não se criou. Nos tempos do império isso foi conseguido indo buscar o que outros povos possuíam. Hoje também. Apesar de semieuropeus, estamos a preparar-nos para pedir de novo ajuda à União, a única hipótese de amenizar o doloroso colapso que aí vem."
A sua empresa depende do mercado interno?

Como é que ela se está a equacionar esta hipótese de "doloroso colapso que aí vem"?
Será que ela está preparada para a eventualidade de um novo 2011?


Trecho retirado de "Semieuropeus"

Para reflexão

Para um país com taxas de crescimento do PIB raquíticas desde há muitos anos "Attack of the zombie firms" dá que pensar:
"WHY has economic growth been so sluggish in the developed world?
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a higher share of industry capital sunk in zombie firms tends to crowd out the growth—measured in terms of investment and employment—of the typical non-zombie firm.
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Zombie firms could drag down productivity in three ways. First, just by being inefficient, they drag down the productivity average for the whole economy. Second, they may crowd out investment by non-zombie firms. And third they may prevent efficient resource allocation by preventing more efficient firms from gaining market share.
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In a sense, the zombie firm phenomenon mirrors the European labour-market problem. Well-intentioned reforms designed to protect workers' rights create a two-tier market; well-paid insiders and unemployed outsiders, with firms reluctant to hire the latter because of the costs of getting rid of them. The developed world may have created an inflexible business market.
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That makes the sudden enthusiasm for "industrial policy" on both sides of the Atlantic all the more worrying. Governments tend to back existing firms, since they have the power to lobby; small start-ups don't get a hearing. But protecting the interests of corporate insiders may, in the long run, make the whole economy as sluggish as one of the walking dead."

sexta-feira, janeiro 13, 2017

Curiosidade do dia

"a descrição que faz da miséria dos baixos salários é verdadeira, mas os salários não eram melhores com o escudo e não ficaram melhores com as desvalorizações feitas por duas vezes em democracia;
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não sei se o dr. Carlos Carvalhas acredita que os erros se pagam no outro mundo, mas eu acredito que se pagam apenas neste, se não por nós próprios, pelos nossos filhos e netos, e por isso é bom aprender a não acreditar em facilidades, como é bom aprender a não cometer erros."

Trechos retirados de "O(s) escudo(s) de Carlos Carvalhas"

Um exemplo português

A propósito de "Máquinas da Rico ligadas em 20 países" alguns pontos que gostaria de sublinhar.
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Primeiro, a importância da especialização:
"nos anos 80 acabou por se especializar em dois tipos de máquinas, quinadeiras e guilhotinas"
Segundo, a lição alemã: percorrer o mundo à procura dos clientes com o mesmo perfil
"Com o virar do século, os donos da empresa chegaram à conclusão que tinham de alterar a estratégia e expandir o número de mercados em que operavam" 
Terceiro, uma empresa portuguesa não tem cultura nem tradição de produzir em grande escala. Assim, deve apostar em subir na escala de valor:
"O principal mercado da Rico, neste momento, é o alemão. "A Alemanha pesa 35% nas nossas vendas e nesse país trabalhamos para o segmento médio alto." 
Quarto, atenção às consequências do reshoring:
"Notámos uma recuperação muito grande no sector da metalomecânica e muitas vezes não temos capacidade de produção", para fazer face aos pedidos"  
Quinto, um sintoma de que a indústria vai ter de repetir o mesmo que se fazia no Porto no final do século XIX no comércio. O sector vai ter de criar a sua própria escola, para formar os seus futuros profissionais, para formar os técnicos que precisa:
""É caricato que exista um problema tão grande de desemprego e as empresas continuem à procura de profissionais." 
A propósito deste esquema:

As ameaças não são internas, logo o problema da competência da empresa será um ponto fraco.
A fata de capacidade de produção referida é outro ponto fraco.
A produção para o mercado da gama média alta na Alemanha é um ponto forte.
Como oportunidades incluiria tendências como Mongo e as pequenas séries e o "é meter código nisso" por exemplo.

"when we listen to our soul"

Aplicável a pessoas e a empresas:
"who we are is a balance of who we want to be and who we need to be right now. Conforming is so easy and in many ways normal. But, it is powerful in that it can keep us from realizing our dreams. Change, innovation, the things that drive us forward, are only possible when we listen to our soul and chase after who we really want to be or what we want to do."
"when we listen to our soul" é de certa forma começar pela nossa identidade, começar pelo concreto:



Trecho retirado de "Experiences are The Core Pillars of Any Brand"

"what makes you different"?

"A product’s position is a “location” in a more abstract space — the space of trade-offs. The decisions you make about which features to build and how to integrate them places you “closer” or “further” from other products.
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Your position also affects whether you’re in or out of the competitive set when a “hiring” moment arises. That is, when a person reaches for a product to solve their problem, are you the right fit? Which problems are good fits for you and which ones are bad fits?
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When you know your position, you can say “no.” When you don’t know, you say “yes” out of fear. [Moi ici: Como não recordar "The Most Important Orders"] You build a feature because you’re afraid of what will happen if you don’t. That’s not a strong place to be competitively and it’s not a coherent place to be in terms of your product design."
É mesmo isto:
"trade-offs are both what make them different, what define their competitive sets, and what make them suitable for different hiring moments.
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The trade-offs you make and the features you integrate position you differently relative to other offerings and hiring situations. With the space of trade-offs in mind, you can visualize how some areas are more attractive than others depending on who else is there.
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Without a clear point of view on what makes you different, it’s easy to wander. Especially in the software industry. New feature requests come in every day, and if you can’t say “no”, who knows where on the map you’ll land.
Like in real estate, it’s easy to repeat the mantra but hard to make the right bet. If you find it hard to clearly define where you belong in the market, you’re not alone."

Trechos retirados de "Position, Position, Position!"

"You Are What You Charge For"

Uma mensagem importante de Joe Pine:


"You can charge time once you create the right experience and for outcomes when you transform"
E logo esta manhã, no metro até à Póvoa de Varzim, encontro este trecho:
Quem co-proporciona o contexto para uma experiência cobra "tempo".

Trecho retirado de "The Great Fragmentation : why the future of business is small" de Steve Sammartino

quinta-feira, janeiro 12, 2017

Curiosidade do dia

"É natural que os políticos prefiram tomar decisões que agradam aos eleitores e não aos mercados. No entanto, quando estamos endividados ao nível de Portugal, e por isso dependemos em larga medida da disponibilidade do mercado para financiar a nossa atividade, existem fortes restrições ao que podemos considerar. Este Governo, tendo convencido Bruxelas da bondade e viabilidade do seu plano e estratégia, parece-me que está longe de ter tido igual sucesso com os mercados."
Trecho retirado de "As taxas de juro da dívida e o (des)governo de Portugal"

Quando o mundo muda e o locus de controlo

Quando o mundo muda as empresas... as organizações com o locus de controlo no exterior viram-se para o papá-Estado a pedir apoios, a pedir protecção, a pedir arranjinhos, a pedir ... crony capitalism.

Quando o mundo muda as organizações com o locus de controlo no interior fazem perguntas, tomam decisões, avançam e testam:
"Anyone in retail needs to ask themselves a set of important questions that weren’t relevant post–World War II because in that era they were obvious questions. Stepping outside and reconsidering the dynamics of the retail world, these questions include:
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Price strategy. Do you want to compete on price? If the answer is yes, then it’s going to be increasingly difficult to retail in physical stores. There’s an extra step in the supply chain, and the economics simply don’t make sense. In a market of near-perfect pricing knowledge, price-sensitive buyers gravitate to the cheapest price unless the warehouse and the store are one and the same. ... They are more a bulk warehouse pick-up system than a traditional retailer. In general, online will win the price battle because price leadership is about low-cost infrastructure, and extra links in the retail chain do not make for low cost.
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Product range strategy. Do you want to have a large or lean product range? Clearly, online will win the large-range battle. It doesn’t have the physical constraints of shelves and the cost of big stores. Online needs fewer places for the actual goods. In this world bricks-and-mortar retail can’t win a product-range battle, it can only win a uniqueness and customised one. It’s only a matter of time before widely distributed product brand owners start competing with retailers.
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Location strategy: What’s our physical location about? For online players it’s an easy decision: find a location that facilitates effective delivery. For stores it’s much more than that. If the store is merely about acquiring the product, then in a connected world it has no reason to exist. A physical store needs to be a place of entertainment, education, co-creation and socialisation — a maison and experience that satisfies the five senses. Stores need to be events, not re-sellers.[Moi ici: Dedicado a leitora de Aveiro]
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Attention strategy: Will people use their feet or their fingers to find us? If it’s fingers (online), we have two simple choices: have an über niche audience that loves what we do because it’s unique, or have a kicking SEO (Search Engine Optimisation) strategy that’s first-page worthy. Both of these realities show a clear strategy: survival in retail is about being the cheapest or the nicest. Anything in between can’t compete or will get lost in a world of infinite supply."
Imaginem o tempo perdido com o papá-Estado, que aproveita para dar o seu abraço pedófilo com a impostagem normanda como contrapartida para o suposto apoio, tempo que não pode ser dedicado a reflexão e acção interna.

Trechos retirados de "The Great Fragmentation : why the future of business is small" de Steve Sammartino

Anónimo da província humilha gurus

Pela primeira vez vejo, preto no branco, num artigo publicado pelos media tradicionais, um texto a corroborar a opinião de muitos anos deste blogue: o salientar que afinal são as PME as grandes dinamizadoras das exportações portuguesas. Recordar, por exemplo, o recente Acerca das exportações (parte II) ou a série Acerca das exportações dos primeiros 8 meses de 2016 ou ainda No meu campeonato as exportações do 1º trimestre correram bem!

Em "PME estão mais exportadoras, mas é difícil encontrar clientes" [BTW, mas que raio de título... em que sector é que não é difícil encontrar clientes?] pode ler-se:
"“Sempre que saem as estatísticas das exportações justificamos os números com a Autoeuropa ou com a refinaria da Galp. Mas para perceber se existe aqui uma força transformadora, pareceu-nos mais viável olhar para as PME.” São elas o motor invisível das exportações nacionais, num país onde “um número muito pequeno, cerca de 500, faz a quota de leão das vendas ao exterior – um somatório de muitos micros que fazem o macro”."
Uma coisa que me entristeceu no artigo foi este gráfico:
Pena ainda não aparecer como razão para a internacionalização: a procura de margens superiores para o negócio.

Uma coisa que me fez rir e começar o dia bem disposto foi olhar para este outro gráfico:

Pensem bem no que aqui defendemos ao longo dos anos. Por exemplo, em Outro testemunho, outra prova do tempo, de Fevereiro de 2016 refere textos do blogue de antes da chegada da troika e de 2012 a ridicularizar a ideia tão presente nos discursos de políticos, académicos e comentadores económicos (a tríade) de que exportamos por causa dos nossos custos baixos.

Reparem no último factor deste segundo gráfico: o aumento dos custos de produção é o factor que menos preocupa as PME exportadoras.

Impressionante como este anónimo da província bateu os gurus todos, todos mesmo, nesta cena das exportações. Como não recordar esta mentalidade: Político, socialista e ignorante




Para reflexão

Acerca dos riscos macro em 2017: probabilidade e gravidade
A sua PME precisa de apostar na antifragilidade?

Cuidado com a ideologia fragilista.

Imagem retirada de "The Global Risks Report 2017 12th Edition" publicado pelo World Economic Forum.


quarta-feira, janeiro 11, 2017

Curiosidade

Vergonha alheia!

Como é possível dar estas cambalhotas?
"But running big deficits is no longer harmless, let alone desirable."
Lá se vai o grande referencial de quase todos os políticos, da direita à esquerda, para a orgia orçamental.

Trecho retirado de "Deficits Matter Again"

Ainda acerca do JTBD

"Experiences and Premium Prices
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identifying and understanding the Job to Be Done is the foundation, it’s only the first step in creating products that you can be sure customers want to hire. Products that they’ll actually pay premium prices for.
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That involves not only understanding the job, but also the right set of experiences for purchase and use of that product, and then integrating those experiences into a company’s processes. All three layers - Uncovering the Job, Creating the Desired Experiences, and Integrating around the Job - are critical. When a company understands and responds to all three layers of the job depicted here, it will have solved a job in a way that competitors can’t easily copy."
 Trecho retirado de "Competing Against Luck"

Mateus 25:14-30

"Leaders who want to shake things up have to be comfortable with the idea that “failure is an option,” Doyle concludes. In a world of hyper-competition and nonstop disruption, playing it safe is the riskiest course of all. That’s a recipe for reinvention that makes for good pizza and big change."
Como não recordar o delírio dos fragilistas e o aviso de Alicia Juarrero: o fail safe é impossível logo, optar pelo safe fail.

Trecho retirado de "How Domino’s Pizza Reinvented Itself"

Depois da experiência a transformação


Esta figura, retirada de "Quando o sol se levanta será bom que corras" (Junho de 2006) está em sintonia com "Why “Transformative Travel” Will Be the Travel Trend of 2017":
"“Experiential travel” became the travel trend of 2016. Rather than just visiting far-flung locations, vacationers were looking for ways to tap into native cultures, meaningfully interact with locals, and feel like far more than a tourist. So where does a thoughtful traveler go from there? What’s next?
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Industry leaders are saying that “transformational travel” is the next evolution. It has similar elements of experiential travel, but taken a step further—it’s travel motivated and defined by a shift in perspective, self-reflection and development, and a deeper communion with nature and culture.
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the elements of adventure travel that lead to deeper transformations. He identified a three-phase process consisting of the departure, the initiation, and the return—the “hero’s journey”—where travelers venture into the unknown to learn wisdom from cultures and places outside their own, returning home to implement this knowledge, ultimately changing their lives and the lives of others around them. It’s this post-travel action that separates experiential travel from transformational travel. “
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Many travel companies already see this shift occurring.
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The shift to transformational travel is reflected in programming, from adventure and artisan travel to luxury lodges and hotels in both natural and urban locales."


Uma novela sobre Mongo (parte XIII)

 Parte Iparte IIparte IIIparte IVparte Vparte VIparte VIIparte VIIIparte IXparte Xparte XI e parte XII.

"Working in retail has never been harder. And I’m not talking about traditional bricks-and-mortar retail, I’m talking about retail in general. It doesn’t matter if we sell online, in a store or via a combination of the two, the change in landscape, which has opened up the market, has made it more competitive. The more competition we have in any market, the harder it is to operate profitably. Again, the first rule in economics is that increased supply results in reduced prices.
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It’s the most basic economic fact that everyone seems to forget. In a world where choice is increasing exponentially, it presents two simple options for retailers: be the cheapest and quickest, or live deep inside the long tail.
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Retail was once one of the most simple business models — find a geography, buy a product, sell at margin — while it’s now one of the most complex. What was once a mum-and-pop business possibility is quickly becoming a sophisticated, technology-driven, multi-channel mind warp.[Moi ici: Estão a imaginar o choradinho dos anos 90 do comércio tradicional por causa dos shoppings? Para breve teremos o choradinho shoppings que não souberem adaptar-se ao e-commerce]
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It’s hardest for the retailers selling what everyone else sells. Selling well-known, widely-distributed products online is simply a race to the bottom, a price war that can only be won by the most efficient operator. It’s quickly turning into a game of logistics more than it is about customer engagement. [Moi ici: Imaginem isto a lidar com uma tribo aguerrida] The world of today is an infinite store, where everything is available at the best price possible to anyone, anywhere.
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What retail forgot
Retail has always been about bringing the unique from worlds afar; that is, introducing to people items they couldn’t find or get in their corner of the world. From the spice market to the department store to the first iterations of the supermarket, the story of the department store is worth recalling. The traditional department store, which was only born during the nineteenth century, was about curating products from around the world and bringing them home, making available to people amazing items from before the days of travel, let alone global travel.
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The discount death spiral
Retailers forgot about enlightenment, curation and inspiration and got caught up in a TV-industrial, volume-focused price spiral. Price became the core focus of everything they did. The evidence is in all the communication materials. They even set up what’s known as ‘retail’ communications campaigns, which are entirely focused on price and nothing more. The brand, or what I call ‘reason’, campaigns trailed into the background and were often removed from the corporate retail agenda entirely. They forgot that their job as retailers was to bring the world to their geography. Instead, retailers are a place where you buy cheap stuff and deals where you get two for the price of one. Many traditional retailers have put themselves into a retail price death spiral where all they’ve stood for were cheap prices, so what will they stand for when others sell goods more cheaply online?"


Trechos retirados de "The Great Fragmentation : why the future of business is small" de Steve Sammartino

terça-feira, janeiro 10, 2017

Acerca do JTBD

De "Replacing The User Story With The Job Story" recordo:

Foi desta imagem que me lembrei ao ler "Defining the Customer’s Core Functional Job-to-be-Done":
"Take the customer’s perspective: When defining the core functional job, think about the job from the customer’s perspective, not the company’s.
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Don’t overcomplicate it: While the Jobs-to-be-Done Needs Framework is multilayered and complex, a functional job statement is not.
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Leave emotion and other needs out of it: When defining the core functional job make sure it is defined as a functional job, not as a hybrid functional/emotional/social job. A functional job does not have social and emotional dimensions. The emotional and social jobs related to the core functional job are defined in a series of separate emotional job statements.
Also do not include desired outcomes in the functional job statement. They too must be stated separately. So if the job is to “cut a piece of wood in a straight line”, don’t say “accurately, safely and quickly cut a piece of wood in a straight line”. Accurately, safely and quickly vaguely describe outcomes associated with getting the job done.
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Define the job, not the situation: Do not define the Job-to-be-Done as a situation that a customer finds himself or herself in. Rather define the job around what the customer decides to do in that situation.
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Define the job statement in the correct format: A job statement always begins with a verb and is followed by the object of the verb (a noun). The statement should also include a contextual clarifier. In the job statement “listen to music while on the go”, the contextual clarification is made by adding “while on the go” to the job statement. Commuters who stop at quick service restaurant on the way to work are trying to “get breakfast while commuting to work” where “while commuting to work” brings needed context to the statement. Keep this format in mind:"
Duas versões diferentes e que merecem reflexão.

"Stretch goals"

Um excelente artigo na HBR de Janeiro de 2017, "The Stretch Goal Paradox". Talvez um dos melhores artigos que li na revista no último ano:
"What executive hasn’t dreamed of transforming an organization by achieving seemingly impossible goals through the sheer force of will? We’re not talking about merely challenging goals. We’re talking about management moon shots—goals that appear unattainable given current practices, skills, and knowledge. In the parlance of the business world, these are often referred to as stretch goals,
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Stretch goals are often viewed as truly important sources of individual and organizational motivation and achievement.
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“More often than not, [daring] goals can tend to attract the best people and create the most exciting work environments…stretch goals are the building blocks for remarkable achievements in the long term.”
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No wonder many executives conclude that stretch goals are a great way to magically resuscitate or transform an ailing innovation strategy.
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But that’s not the case. Our research, which we first outlined in a 2011 award-winning Academy of Management Review article with Michael Lawless and Andrew Carton, has shown that stretch goals are not only widely misunderstood but widely misused. Organizations that would most benefit from them seldom employ them, and organizations for which stretch goals are probably not a good strategy often turn to them in a desperate attempt to generate breakthroughs. Neither approach is likely to be successful. This is what we call “the stretch goal paradox.”
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So, before launching stretch goals in sales, production, quality, or any other realm, how can you be confident that your grand aspirations will trigger positive attitudes and actions rather than negative ones? When facing radically out-of-the-box opportunities or threats, you can’t just rely on intuition. You need clear guidelines for assessing and addressing risk. You have to know when stretch goals do and do not make sense, and when to employ them rather than set more achievable objectives.
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Predicting the Outcome of Stretch Goal Use
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Two critical factors consistently seem to determine success at meeting stretch goals. Though they appear straightforward, often managers ignore them or don’t appreciate how they’ll affect a firm’s abilities."

Acerca das exportações (parte II)

Na parte I escrevi:
"Um excelente desempenho das PME"
O impacte da redução das exportações de combustíveis e lubrificantes mascara o enorme sucesso das PME. Reparem no que aconteceu em 2016:
Quanto à máscara, reparem como um suposto jornal económico cai na esparrela: "Exportações estagnadas com 2016 quase fechado"

BTW, o futuro prepara-se assim "Recorde português na Heimtextil". Quando é que os ministros percebem que estas feiras são para receber potenciais clientes e fazer negócios. Todo o tempo é escasso, porque o vão lá queimar?

Acerca das exportações (parte I)

O valor mensal das exportações no passado mês de Novembro foi o segundo mais alto de sempre, só ultrapassado pelo recorde de Julho de 2015.

Um excelente desempenho das PME. Quando excluímos as exportações de combustíveis e lubrificantes constatamos que Novembro de 2016 foi recorde absoluto de exportações:
Claro que a maioria dos comentadores e políticos, da oposição e da situação, não sublinham estes recordes para não prejudicar a sua narrativa do país-coitadinho, vítima do euro, que lhes dá munições para o seu capital de queixa e reivindicação perante Bruxelas.

Em Pre-suasion, encontrei uma história deliciosa e ao mesmo tempo preocupante:
"often try to convey to various audiences is that, in contests of persuasion, counterarguments are typically more powerful than arguments. This superiority emerges especially when a counterclaim does more than refute a rival’s claim by showing it to be mistaken or misdirected in the particular instance, but does so instead by showing the rival communicator to be an untrustworthy source of information, generally. Issuing a counterargument demonstrating that an opponent’s argument is not to be believed because its maker is misinformed on the topic will usually succeed on that singular issue. But a counterargument that undermines an opponent’s argument by showing him or her to be dishonest in the matter will normally win that battle plus future battles with the opponent."
Depois disto vamos à história:
"perhaps the most effective marketing decision ever made by the tobacco companies lies buried and almost unknown in the industry’s history: after a three-year slide of 10 percent in tobacco consumption in the United States during the late 1960s, Big Tobacco did something that had the extraordinary effect of ending the decline and boosting consumption while slashing advertising expenditures by a third. What was it?
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On July 22, 1969, during US congressional hearings, representatives of the major American tobacco companies strongly advocated a proposal to ban all of their own ads from television and radio, even though industry studies showed that the broadcast media provided the most effective routes to new sales.
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[Moi ici: Cá vai a solução para o mistério] In 1967, the US Federal Communications Commission (FCC) had ruled that its “fairness doctrine” applied to the issue of tobacco advertising. The fairness doctrine required that equal advertising time be granted on radio and television—solely on radio and television—to all sides of important and controversial topics. If one side purchased broadcast time on these media, the opposing side must be given free time to counterargue.
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That decision had an immediate impact on the landscape of broadcast advertising. For the first time, anti-tobacco forces such as the American Cancer Society could afford to air counterarguments to the tobacco company messages. They did so via counter-ads that disputed the truthfulness of the images displayed in tobacco company commercials. If a tobacco ad featured healthy, attractive, independent characters, the opposing ads would counterargue that, in fact, tobacco use led to diseased health, damaged attractiveness, and slavish dependence.
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During the three years that they ran, those anti-tobacco spots slashed tobacco consumption in the United States by nearly 10 percent. At first the tobacco companies responded predictably, increasing their advertising budgets to try to meet the challenge. But, by the rules of the fairness doctrine, for each tobacco ad, equal time had to be provided for a counter-ad that would take another bite out of industry profits. When the logic of the situation hit them, the tobacco companies worked politically to ban their own ads, but solely on the air where the fairness doctrine applied—thereby ensuring that the anti-tobacco forces would no longer get free airtime to make their counterargument."
Imaginem o que seria um anónimo como eu confrontar Ferreira do Amaral com números que desmascaram a sua narrativa da falta de competitividade portuguesa com o euro.