"Retail stores will become increasingly more like showrooms or “experience lounges” rather than points of sale, according to a co-produced study from Microsoft and Ogilvy & Mather.
...
The research revealed that digitally-savvy shoppers are driving the retail space to become more than points of sale alone, but experiential showrooms.
...
“As marketers we have the internet the wrong way around – we are looking at it from the wrong end of the telescope – always focusing on what we can do with new technology, but actually more it’s more valuable to view it as what does it say about human behaviour," he said."
"Online commerce has grown at different rates in different countries, but everywhere it is gaining fast (see chart 1). In Britain, Germany and France 90% of the rather modest growth in retail sales expected between now and 2016 will be online, predicts AXA Real Estate, a property-management company. ... When shoppers both know what they want and are willing to wait for it they will go online. And retail’s simple moneymaking ways of yesteryear—find a catchy concept, fuel growth by opening new shops and attracting more shoppers to existing ones, use your growing size to squeeze suppliers for better margins—have run out of steam. But that does not mean that there are no new options for bricks and mortar. . Shopping is about entertainment as well as acquisition. It allows people to build desires as well as fulfil them—if it did not, no one would ever window-shop. It encompasses exploration and frivolity, not just necessity. It can be immersive, too. While computer screens can bewitch the eye, a good shop has four more senses to ensorcell. ... The future shopscape will be emptier, but more attractive. Shoppers can expect new rewards for simply showing up. Shopkick, a mobile-phone app, gives American shoppers points that earn them goodies like iTunes songs just for stepping across the threshold of a participating store. Inspired by Apple, shops promise “experience” and hope that sales will follow. Germany’s Kochhaus claims to be the first food store organised around recipes rather than grocery categories. The ingredients are strewn across tables, not stacked on shelves. Some shops will opt to sell nothing at all on the premises. Desigual, a Spanish fashion merchant, has shops in Barcelona and Paris that carry only samples. Shoppers are helped to assemble them into outfits that they then buy online."
"Within 10 years, retail as we know it will be unrecognizable, says Kevin
Sterneckert, a Gartner analyst who follows retail technology. Big-box
stores such as Office Depot, Old Navy and Best Buy
will shrink to become test centers for online purchases. Retail stores
will be there for a "touch and feel" experience only, with no actual
sales. Stores won't stock any merchandise; it'll be shipped to you. This
will help them stay competitive with online-only retailers, Sterneckert
says."
Que o retalho físico vai mudar, não há dúvidas.
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Não sei é se vai ser descurando o efeito da gratificação imediata da compra.
"FedEx and UPS will delve deeper into refrigerated home delivery. Google
trucks will deliver local services. Clothing — even pharmaceuticals —
will be produced in the home via affordable 3-D printers."
Aqui está um negócio que há mais de 1 ano me convence que vai ter um boom espectacular, o "home delivery".
"By the time you walk into a store in the near future, the employees
there will probably know what you want to buy, based on information on
your trusty phone or tablet. Merchants will know your gender, age, race
and income, analyst Sterneckert and others say"
E qual será a formação destes consultores de compra? Que competências tecnológicas terão de possuir? Como se lidará com a propriedade e confidencialidade da informação? Um consultor de compra poderá ter acesso a esta informação sobre um cliente e não ser assediado para a passar a outro empregador?
"There might be less merchandise inside, as bricks-and-mortar stores
offer only special products that distinguish them from Web competitors."
Fácil de prever, aliás, já está a acontecer, as lojas europeias pelam-se por artigos exclusivos, pedem para colocar a sua marca em artigos que não desenvolveram, tudo para criar diferenciação face ao online.
"Increasingly, where one shops will be irrelevant. Phones and bar codes will let consumers shop from their kitchens — a digital screen on a refrigerator, for example, will allow orders from home, with a delivery service dropping off the produce. "A screen is a screen is a screen," says Jill Puleri, of IBM's Global Business Services retail-consulting practice."
E se pequenos produtores, em vez de transferirem margem para a distribuição, apostassem na captura destas encomendas caseiras, para clientes-alvo, e as despachassem via parceiros da "home-delivery". O meu fornecedor de ovos, feijão verde, cebola, batata, nabiças, nabos, kiwis, maracujás, pimentos, courgettes, abóboras, pepinos e... poderia ampliar a sua produção e ganhar uma boa maquia.
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Não estou de acordo com tudo o que o artigo descreve ou prevê, contudo, parece-me uma boa matéria-prima para alimentar discussões sobre o futuro do retalho em vários sectores. O problema que a grande distribuição resolve é o da mediação entre o produtor e o consumidor... e o que impede que a internet, num futuro cada vez mais próximo, seja esse mediador?
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Trechos retirados de "Why shopping will never be the same"
Interessante, agora que tantos e tantos acreditam que as Amazons vão dar cabo das lojas de pedra e cal... a Amazon vai abrir uma loja de pedra e cal!!!
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"Amazon 'to open first physical shop'"
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Qual é o desafio que eu vejo nesta abordagem?
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A Amazon, segundo Bezos himself, é uma empresa que trabalha para reduzir preços, está habituada a essa linha de orientação, esmera-se em aperfeiçoar e aprofundar os trade-offs que vêm agarrados a essa proposta de valor.
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Ao ler "The shop is being opened in a bid to gauge how profitable a chain of retail stores, in a similar vein to Apple, would be, reports the US books blog, Good E-reader. . It will focus on selling Kindles, the new Kindle Fire tablet, which has yet to go on sale in the UK, and also a range of ‘Amazon Exclusives’ physical books, which the technology giant publishes."
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Querer copiar a Apple... não me parece boa ideia para uma empresa forte no preço mais baixo.
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Ao mesmo tempo, o criador do conceito da loja Apple, agora como CEO da JC Penney, anda a experimentar um novo conceito de loja "J.C. Penney gets rid of hundreds of sales" o fim das promoções e saldos... (algo que, se pegar deste lado do Atlântico, ainda vai sobrar para as PMEs portuguesas, porque este modelo obriga a cadeias de abastecimento mais curtas).
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Lembram-se do que escrevi sobre os saldos de 60% da Sacoor?
Lembram-se do que David Birnbaum escreveu sobre os saldos? ("the longer the lead time, the longer the markdowns")
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Eis o que a J.C. Penney vai experimentar:
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"J.C. Penney is permanently marking down all of its merchandise by at least 40 percent so shoppers no longer have to wait for sales to get bargains."
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Sintomas de que muita gente anda a fazer experiências no mundo do comércio... por cá... será que a CCP acha que a salvação virá dos políticos? Deviam estar a desafiar, picar, "chatear", apoquentar os seus associados para reflectirem sobre o futuro e prepararem uma resposta ao colapso da procura interna e ao poder da distribuição grande, não com base em benesses dos políticos (sempre perigosas, por causa dos juros que trazem agarradas) mas através da escolha dos clientes-alvo e da sua sedução.
Enquanto por cá se ainda se discute a última guerra, a concorrência entre comércio tradicional e grande distribuição, noutras paragens é interessante perceber como a grande distribuição começa a recear o efeito "showrooming" e a perca de mercado para a distribuição digital. Apetece repetir aquele ditado: quem com ferros mata, com ferros morre.
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Quem leva o campeonato para o mundo da eficiência, não se deve admirar quando esse mesmo mundo serve para levar o jogo para o nível seguinte:
Engraçado, a minha suspeita é a de que o caminho para a Loja 3.0 é o mesmo de sempre, o mesmo que sempre propusemos ao comércio tradicional, para fazer face à grande distribuição:
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"While online sales for retailers are still a small percentage of total sales across all channels, online sales growth rates are greatly outperforming the traditional brick-and mortar channels every year. In fact, the average growth rate of online sales has been about 20% annually, while the growth rate for traditional retail sales lags far behind, averaging about 3% per year."
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É preciso desenhar uma experiência pessoal, é preciso co-produzir uma solução, é preciso co-criar valor, mais do que pagar o salário mínimo a quem guarde SKUs emprateleirados e transaccione-os por dinheiro. É preciso mais do que arranjar umas pechinchas made in Cambodia, ou Vietname, ou China.
Este relatório da Accenture "From Retail to “Me-tail”: Tomorrow Starts Today" descreve o nosso planeta Mongo, descreve o universo de possibilidades, a explosão de variedade que encerra (recordar as árvores cladísticas da biologia).
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Ao ler trechos deste tipo, fico tão reforçado nas minhas convicções sobre como vai ser Mongo e, ao mesmo tempo, tão ciente da quantidade de trabalho que há que fazer para alertar os empresários para o advento desse novo mundo, para melhor o aproveitarem, em vez de receosos começarem a pedir ajuda ao estado pedo-mafioso.
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Alguns recortes:
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"In the future, the sheer diversity of both shoppers and shopping trips will require a multiplicity of formats, each tailored to a specific local market. The name of the store game will be precision retailing.
...
Some stores will focus on the timestarved, others on the “green” consumer. Some will simply be showrooms. (Moi ici: Explosão dos tipos, e funções das lojas do futuro)
...
People who actually bother to visit a physical retail space will be in search of an enjoyable and entertaining “experience”. (Moi ici: Batota, batota por todo o lado)
...
In the future, Internet penetration ... into a global phenomenon. And this, of course, spells huge opportunities for start-ups, which we call “wildfire niches” because of the speed with which we expect them to spreadempowered by new technologies and serving a diversity of customer segments.
...
In the future, the lifecycle of products will be significantly shorter, making product innovation an even more critical differentiator of high performance. (Moi ici: Não só a inovação no produto, como a flexibilidade, como a proximidade. Não a China não vai ser a fábrica do mundo) “Fast fashion”, in fact, will be the dominant business model — not just in apparel and consumer electronics, where it is already evident, but also in all other retail categories. Fast fashion will also necessitate more supple supply chains—a challenge for many. According to Miami-based Retail Systems Research, forecast does not match demand for most retailers. The proliferation of stock keeping units (SKUs) means that retailers are trying to edit a constantly increasing number of choices to stay relevant for the consumer. (Moi ici: Em minha opinião isso só será resolvido pelo aumento da concentração das lojas num universo cada vez mais restrito de clientes-alvo. Especulo que até a lei vai ter de ser mudada para permitir farmácias especializadas em áreas concretas)
...
In the future, the retail supply chain will be predicated on inventory arriving at the store shelf just as need arises. Replenishment orders will be placed and released on regular cycles—typically weekly or more. Lead times for domestic suppliers will be measured in hours or days. (Moi ici: Cadeias de fornecimento curtas, rápidas, flexíveis)
...
The benefits of a successful fast fashion business model are numerous. Customers will see a visible difference on the store floor, inducing them to make more visits and thus boosting revenues. (Moi ici: A velha previsão de em vez de duas épocas por ano... termos 52 épocas por ano!!!)
...
Production lead times should drop, thanks to the high utilization of common components. And vendor partnerships should strengthen.
...
Retail will also need to become a more collaborative industry. Individual retailers will recognize the value of greater specialization, particularly in logistics, and supply chain specialization and segmentation will be commonplace—though a proliferation of distribution points will also necessitate shared logistics and other forms of collaboration.
... In the future, consumer demands will be so diverse and complex that no single organization will be able to cater to all of them. (Moi ici: Recordar Holland e o que diz ao minuto 13:50. Não há um competidor universal... Mais uma vez, escolher clientes-alvo e proposta de valor casada com competências internas) Individual retailers will need to function more like agents. Consumers will look to them to “broker” products and channels. And that will spur many retailers to join together in strategic alliances, often with companies in other industries, most of which also want to “own” the consumer.
Muitas empresas têm receio de dar este passo.
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Cá vai mais um exemplo "Williams-Sonoma Chooses Clicks Over Bricks in Web Rollout"
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"Williams-Sonoma Inc. (WSM), the 55-year-old housewares chain known for its meticulously arranged stores and baking demonstrations, is cooking up a new strategy: remaking itself as an Internet company.
Web orders are already the fastest-growing source of revenue for the San Francisco-based company, and now it’s preparing to make its e-commerce sites global by the end of June"
...
“What they and other retailers are starting to figure out, is that their stores are more showrooms, and a lot of their transactions are happening online,”
...
"“Over the past several years we’ve taken it up a notch, really from being a catalog company with websites, to embracing the Web and becoming an Internet company,” he said."
...
Ontem, fui com a minha filha mais velha a São João da Madeira em busca de uma loja de artigos desportivos que lhe tinham falado.
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Lá encontramos a loja Tavares na Avenida Dr Renato Araújo. A minha filha pratica andebol e há mais de um mês que procurava umas sapatilhas Kempa que conciliassem, tamanho e design atraente. Durante essa busca visitámos várias lojas SportZone e Extreme sem sucesso.
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Na Tavares - Artigos de Desporto encontramos uma grande variedade de modelos e a moça lá encontrou o que pretendia. No entanto, o que me agradou na loja foi o conhecimento.
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Perguntei se conheciam a marca Newton e começamos a falar sobre calçado para corrida... é muito bom, chegar a uma loja e encontrar alguém que sabe mais do artigo que vende do que o cliente. Fiquei fã!
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E os preços são mais baratos que nas lojas acima referidas. Ou seja, encontrei uma loja que associa conhecimento especializado a um preço mais baixo... que mais pode um cliente pedir?
Por volta de 1981 entrou em casa dos meus pais um calhamaço dum livro chamado "The Third Wave". Nesse ano ou no ano a seguir li-o. Um dos soundbytes que recordo foi sobre a explosão da diversidade de temas que se podiam aprender numa universidade. O casal Toffler escreveu qualquer coisa como: "numa universidade podem-se aprender desde tácticas de guerrilha até tácticas na bolsa".
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Pois foi desta frase que me lembrei ao ler este artigo no ionline:
"o alargamento do horário dos hipermercados pode pôr em causa a sobrevivência do pequeno comércio e sustenta que "são dias para olhar para o céu e não para dentro de grandes superfícies". "
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Estas medidas legislativas para proteger o pequeno comércio têm o mesmo efeito que tentar ajudar uma borboleta a sair do casulo. A ajuda impede o fortalecimento, a ajuda impede a mudança, a ajuda é contraproducente.
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Tantos milhões que se gastam em apoios, em formações, em... e onde está a mudança?
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Será que o futuro do pequeno comércio é continuar a ser o que sempre foi, alheio às mudanças no exterior?
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Será que o preço comanda todas as decisões de compra dos clientes? Será que o preço é o único critério de compra dos clientes?
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"In the early months of the recession Wal-Mart enjoyed increased store traffic and sales (Moi ici: A migração de valor, ver marcador). This certainly was the result of changing shopping patterns as consumers shifted to retailers with a low-price focus. . In an attempt to reduce inventory costs, increase inventory turns, and improve efficiency, Fleming drastically reduced the number of SKUs in Wal-Mart stores. This immediately resulted in decreased traffic as customers went elsewhere to find the products no longer available at Wal-Mart. For the last four quarters, Wal-Mart has experienced decreases in sales. " (Trecho retirado de "The Wal-Mart Dilemma!"
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O preço é importante mas não é tudo. Mesmo em tempo de recessão o preço não é tudo.
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Há cerca de um ano escrevi aqui no blogue sobre o livro "Up Against the Wal Mart's" (parte I, parte II e parte III)... como é que o pequeno comércio pode combater os Continentes e Jumbos e Pingos Doces e Lidls deste país?
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Eles são grandes, eles são enormes, eles têm muito dinheiro, nós somos pequeninos...
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Talvez valha a pena ler a interpretação que Malcom Gladwell dá sobre o confronto entre David e Golias, ou sobre Lawrence e os turcos, ou sobre ... (texto de Gladwell aqui e a minha interpretação nesta série sobretudo neste postal).
O que seguramente não tem funcionado e vai continuar a não funcionar é o coitadinhismo, ainda ao menos se os media não o alimentassem ...
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Como se instila mudança? Como se aponta para uma Terra Prometida onde corre leite e mel?
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Ainda ao menos se os media não alimentassem o coitadinhismo... e os políticos.
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BTW, se são dias para olhar para o céu ou não deve ser deixado ao livre arbítrio das pessoas, já Hayek no seu livro escreveu sobre a tentação de planear o tempo livre dos cidadãos pessoas impostados.
Esqueçam a Vossa opinião, perguntem aos consumidores, aos clientes, aqueles que têm o poder de decidir se entram ou não na Vossa loja: "Estão contentes com datas dos saldos?"
Ko Floor em Branding a Store faz um excelente exercício de 'reframing' sobre o futuro das lojas, dando pistas interessantes para as hipóteses de actuação e posicionamento futuro.
“The retail market will become increasingly between functional and emotional shopping. On one side of the market, retail brands will focus on functional and solution-driven shopping of (replenishement) commodities like food, household products, drugs and basic textiles.
On the other side retail brands will operate that sell expressive merchandise with strong emotional appeal, like fashion, domestic accessories and perfumes. Functional stores will mainly choose price, range and or convenience as their positioning attributes. In contrast, emotional stores will mainly position themselves on range and store experience. Retail brands in between, that do not make a clear choice between functional and emotional shopping, will disappear.”
…
“There will not only be a clear dichotomy between functional and emotional retail brands: a strong polarization over price will also occur.
Price will continue to be an important driver in retail in the coming years. Consumers want to save money in some stores in order to be able to afford premium prices in other stores. This will cause a clear dichotomy in retail: low-price and high-value mass retail brands on one side of the market, and premium-priced niche retail brands on the other side.
Low-price and especially high-value mass brands will grow rapidly. After all, for most consumers it is not about the lowest price; it is about the highest value.”
…
“In contrast to these low-price and high-value brands, premium niche brands will position themselves as deriving their appeal from their exclusivity and very high prices. The difference between these luxury premium retailers and the low-price/high-value retailers will become bigger than it is now. While low-price/high-value stores will emphasize their range and price, premium stores will pay attention to range, service and often to store experience as well.”
…
“For years, the middle segment was the largest part of the market, but that is going to change. Just like with the functional and emotional retail brands, the middle segment will also disappear. Retail brands that are stuck in the middle will loose territory at a quick rate. These medium-priced retail brands will get squeezed between the low-price and high-value brands on one side of the market, and the premium brands on the other. To the consumer they do not have a clear offer.”
Isto das marcas não serem claras, não terem uma mensagem coerente e consistente não é treta, por exemplo, o artigo “Building Brands Without Mass Media” de Erich Joachimsthaler e David Aaker, publicado pela Harvard Business Review em Janeiro de 1997 ilustra um exemplo de como uma marca que quer ser tudo não é nada e anda à deriva:
“Consider Farggi. In 1993, a Spanish company called Lacrem launched Farggi as a premium ice cream in Spain--one year after the arrival of Haagen-Dazs. The Farggi name was chosen because it sounded Italian and hence would evoke images of quality ice cream among Europeans. It also drew on the reputation of the successful Farggi line of pastry outlets.
The problem was that the name had too many associations and messages. It had already been used for a standard-quality ice cream sold to food service establishments.
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The Farggi strategy, confusing at best, had too many elements: competing directly with Haagen-Dazs, exploiting ties to Spain, having an Italian-sounding brand, and cashing in on the popularity of American-style ice cream.
(The brand was positioned as being based on an authentic American recipe featuring the best-quality ingredients from Spain.)
Confusing messages were sent by Farggi’s method of distribution as well. It said "premium" by offering the ice cream in 500-milliliter cups for two people (originally pioneered by Haagen-Dazs in Europe) through Farggi-owned or franchised ice-cream parlors reminiscent of nearby Haagen-Dazs stores. At the same time, it said "cut-price" by distributing Farggi through hypermarket stores in low-rent neighborhoods and through concessions at regional soccer stadiums.
In short, the brand was everything and nothing. And we believe that, ultimately, its muddled identity confused consumers and put them off. Not surprisingly, today Farggi is trailing Haagen-Dazs in Spain by a significant margin in both sales and market share."
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Voltando a Ko Floor:
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“The differences between stores will become larger. Mid-priced stores and stores that do not make a clear choice between functional and emotional shopping will disappear. The disappearance of these mid-market stores will lead to a split of the retail market into four extremes: efficient routine, small pleasures, affordable dreams and luxurious experiences.”
Este esquema ajuda a enquadrar os desafios que as lojas têm pela frente, as escolhas que terão de fazer.
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E voltamos a temas já aqui abordados na óptica das empresas, temas como polarização dos mercados, stuck in the middle e fim do middle market.
Thomassen & Lincoln atacam de frente a conversa da treta sobre a produção de Private Label. . "Of course, you always have the option to join the success and become a supplier. But that success may not be as gainable as it might first appear. The reasons to supply are fourfold. Here are some reasons they don’t make sense: . 1. Utilizes spare capacity. One of the most often cited reasons is the need to mop up capacity. However, if you were honest, is the utilization of this spare capacity profitable or not? There is considerable evidence that producing Private Label lowers your overall margins – hardly good business sense or maximizing shareholder value. If your competitive brands want to lower their margins, let them. Don’t commit business suicide first. . A recent study on a US company proved that it would have to sell four units of Private Label to make as much money as selling one unit of a branded product (Kumar and Steenkamp, 2007). Apart from not making much sense, it’s a good way to commit economic suicide. Now this isn’t clearly the case all the time and there may be cases where it makes sense. But be very careful before you venture too far. . 2. Strengthens relationships with key distributors.What a load of baloney! There is absolutely no evidence that by supplying a retail brand you will be treated better. In reality the opposite is probably true. You lose respect and negotiating power, let alone your technology, formulations and innovations. If you’re the best, why on earth would you want to give it away? . 3. Stops key competitors doing it.Frankly, given what we just said, you should be encouraging them! . 4. Greater purchasing power vis-à-vis its suppliers. Enough said already. The reality is you are more likely to enter a vicious cycle of manufacturing decline." . E o Grande Finale: . "1. Private Label is not for followers who are stuck in the middle.If you are a company with a weak brand, make a choice: be a committed Private Label producer or really grow your brand. . 2. Private Label production is to be avoided in commodity markets, unless you seriously want to lose money. . 3. If you’re going to produce Private Label, ensure you differentiate your brands and Private Label… differently. . 4. Select the right retail partners – ones who respect you."
Mais um trecho de "Private Label" de Thomassen & Lincoln:
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"You read all the Private Label analysis reports around and what do they do, apart from sending you asleep? Frankly, nothing. A radical revolution has happened. Radical solutions are needed. Solutions along the lines of ‘we must improve the quality of our offering’ are all very nice.
But do they change anything? Not really, if you are honest. Assess your real brand position with respect to Private Label and then take the steps you must take before those steps take you away. Always, always seek radical solutions. You’ll need them.
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We’re very tired of seeing the same old boring solutions proposed again and again… lower price, innovate some more, be nice to them and improve quality. These sorts of solutions are going to take you as far as they have so far. NOWHERE. Simply put, it’s a brave new world and it needs brave new solutions, not conventional ones."
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Gosto desta linguagem, gosto desta atitude!
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Nada de paninhos quentes. Encarar o touro bem de frente!!!
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"It’s time to stop. It’s time to stop the conventional. It’s time to get radical. Or else you simply won’t have a business to run."
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Na revista Harvard Business Review deste mês não perder "Five Rules for Retailing in a Recession" de by Ken Favaro, Tim Romberger, e David Meer. . "It was great to be in retailing during the past 15 years. Inflated home values, freely available credit, and low interest rates fueled unprecedented levels of consumer spending. Retailers responded by aggressively adding new stores, launching new concepts, building an online presence, and expanding internationally. . While the U.S. economy grew 5% annually from 1996 to 2006, in nominal terms, the retail sector grew at more than double that rate—an eye-popping 12%. Revenues rose sharply, profits ballooned, and share prices soared. . But that’s all gone now. Even before the financial crisis and recession began, retailers were hitting a wall. Same-store sales—or “comps”—have dropped by double digits for many chains, store closures have accelerated, store openings have slowed, and shareholder-value destruction has been massive." ... Um trecho de uma das sugestões oferecidas: . "Customers who are loyal to you represent market share you already have. Protecting your most loyal customers is an obvious priority in a downturn. But if they are suddenly spending 25% less, most of that will come directly out of what they spend in your stores. Your headroom, therefore, lies with customers who are loyal neither to you nor to your competitors—we call them “switchers.” You may be collecting only 20% of what they’re spending today; taking that to 30% will represent a net gain even when their total spending drops by 25%." . Tenho dúvidas, não sei se poderemos continuar a pensar em crescimento...
"It is widely believed that restructuring has boosted productivity by displacing low-skilled workers and creating jobs for the high skilled."Mas, e como isto é profundo:"In essence, creative destruction means that low productivity plants are displaced by high productivity plants." Por favor voltar a trás e reler esta última afirmação. . "Lovaglia’s Law: The more important the outcome of a decision, the more people will resist using evidence to make it."
"If an organisation is too stable it can ossify, but if it is too unstable it can disintegrate. Successful organisations work between these two conditions or states, in what Stacey called ‘the chaos zone’."
"If the customer doesn't care about the price, then the retailer shouldn't care about the cost," “It's not enough that we do our best; sometimes we have to do what's required”. "Das Leben, das uns gegeben ist, ist uns nicht als etwas Fertiges gegeben, sondern wir müssen es uns gestalten, und zwar jeder sein eigenes." "Eine Regierung, die nichts wert ist, kostet am meisten." "Forget trying to persuade them; light their pants on fire." "O futuro é o que importa. O futuro é a base do significado, é de onde vem o projecto que alguém tem para si próprio" "The single biggest problem in communication is the illusion that it has taken place."
“It is not the strongest of the species that survives, nor the most intelligent; it is the one that is most adaptable to change.”
"o Marketing só existe a partir do pensamento estratégico, caso contrário "não resulta"" "It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends upon his not understanding it" "Perder diversidade é como arrancar páginas de um livro. Quantas páginas poderemos arrancar até deixar de compreender o enredo?" The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic. Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought."
"By strategy, I mean a cohesive response to a challenge. A real strategy is neither a document nor a forecast but rather an overall approach based on a diagnosis of a challenge. The most important element of a strategy is a coherent viewpoint about the forces at work, not a plan."
"Un desastre està punt de succeir a Espanya. El malentès de la gravetat de la crisi costarà car als inversors, ja que tindrà profundes conseqüències per a tot el sistema bancari europeu", afirma.
Entre d'altres coses, Mauldin diu que "els inversors estan fumant crack si creuen que els bancs espanyols són entre els més forts d'Europa, ja que estan amagant les seves pèrdues".
“… there are no “sunset” industries condemned to disappear in high wage economies, although there are certainly sunset and condemned strategies, among them building a business on the advantages to be gained by cheap labor”
"o vencedor da vida, o optimista que vive em incesto com o próprio ego, é o traço mais frágil do líder"
"We shall not grow wiser before we learn that much that we have done was very foolish." You may not be able to change the world but can at least get some entertainment & make a living out of the epistemic arrogance of the human race.
"I wanted you to see what real courage is, instead of getting the idea that courage is a man with a gun in his hand. It's when you know you're licked before you begin but you begin anyway and you see it through no matter what. You rarely win, but sometimes you do."
“Trust your guts. But not too much!”
"Customers will try 'low-cost providers,' because the majors have not given them any clear reason not to." "
"Natal é quando as Crianças pedem e os Pais pagam. Défices é quando os Pais pedem e as Crianças pagam."
"A imprevidência dos povos é infinita, a dos governos é legal"
"What a man sees depends both upon what he looks at and also upon what his previous visual-conceptual experience has taught him to see"
“The leaders first task is to be the trumpet that sounds a clear sound”
"lamented the lack of any systematic data on the scale of unfunded IOUs that care-free politicians have handed out like confetti."
"Let them call me rebel and welcome, I feel no concern from it; but I should suffer the misery of devils, were I to make a whore of my soul..."
O problema não é o consumo. O problema é o consumo assente em endividamento."
"There are designations, like "economist", "prostitute", or "consultant" for which additional characterization doesn't add information."
When it becomes more difficult to suffer than change, you will change"
"Hope is not a strategy and a crisis is a terrible thing to waste"
The more you can see of the present, the more you can see of the future"
Yes, You can change the future, but only changing the present"
"Entrepreneurship is 'Having aspirations greater than your resources'"
“The single biggest reason companies fail is they overinvest in what is, as opposed to what might be."
"The first principle is that you must not fool yourself - and you are the easiest person to fool. So you have to be very careful about that"
"A estabilidade é uma ilusão"
"When we create the conditions of possibility, the universe becomes our co-conspirator"
Thinking about doing is not doing. Talking about doing is not doing. Doing is doing."
"'God has created me to do him some definite service. He has committed some work to me which he has not committed to another'.
...
"Each of us has a mission, each of us is called to change the world, to work for a culture of life, a culture forged by love and respect for the dignity of each human person.
"As our Lord tells us in the Gospel we have just heard, our light must shine in the sight of all, so that, seeing our good works, they may give praise to our heavenly Father."
"The future is not there waiting for us. We create it by the power of imagination."
"confusing testosterone with strategy is a bad idea"
"Much consulting involves the application of models to a system, as opposed to getting involved in the system as a positive change agent""
"O Portugal que pára sem orçamento é precisamente aquele que vive dele e que há todo o interesse em parar."
"credibilidade da política financeira e dos seus executores está ao nível da credibilidade de uma barraca das farturas"
"The role of the manager is thought to be reduction of uncertainty rather than the capacity to live creatively in it"
"today an entrepreneur is closer to artists than managers"
"A business without a path to profit isn’t a business, it’s a hobby"
"If no one’s upset by what you’re saying, you’re probably not pushing hard enough. (And you’re probably boring, too.)"
"Storytelling isn’t just how we construct our identities, stories are our identities"
"'He who has a why to live can bear almost any how' "
"They can because they think they can"
"Se há coisa que não suporto é misturar catequese com negócios, é a incapacidade para calçar os sapatos do outro e só pensar na nossa posição de coitadinhos, pobres vítimas indefesas dos maus e que por isso precisamos do Estado todo poderoso para nos proteger e, nem percebem na volta, os juros que o Estado cobra por esse serviço mafioso de protecção que, ainda por cima não resolve nada."
"Empathy is like a universal solvent. Any problem immersed in empathy becomes soluble."
"In victory, do not brag; in defeat, do not weep"
"Value it's a feeling not a calculation"
"An economist is someone who has had a human being described to him, but has never actually seen one."
"Don't finish first--it's not about running a rat race. Start with a better ending in mind."
"If you sit in on a poker game and don’t see a sucker, get up. You’re the sucker.”
"The 'value added' for most any company, tiny or enormous, comes from the Quality of Experience provided."
"Crediting government with the success of entrepreneurs is like crediting the guy who built Bill Gates’ garage with the success of Microsoft."
"I have found that assuming social scientists understand the difference between correlation and causality is not generally a good one."
"Promising never to raise taxes, without reaching a deal on spending, really means a high and rising commitment to future taxes."
"Some things are so foolish that only an intellectual could believe them, for no ordinary man could be such a fool"
"os bancos não financiam a economia, a poupança sim"
"I do not know the key to success, but the key to failure is trying to please everybody"
"Never be afraid to try, remember... Amateurs built the ark. Professionals built the Titanic."
"terms such as 'experiment' and 'observation' cover complex processes containing many strands. 'Facts' come from negotiations between different parties and the final product - the published report - is influenced by physical events, dataprocessors, compromises, exhaustion, lack of money, national pride and so on."
"'science in the making' is 'the consequence of [a] settlement' of 'controversies'."
"If the state wishes to spend more, it can do so only by borrowing your savings or taxing you more. And it's no good thinking someone else will pay, that someone else is you."
"All failures of strategy are rooted in the assumption that outcomes are predictable."
"Doing things like your bigger competitors is how to get killed in the wars out there"
“Uma moeda boa e forte é como a saúde. Só lhe damos verdadeiramente valor quando não a temos.”
"Life’s tough. It’s tougher if you’re stupid"
"O homem de bem exige tudo de si próprio; o homem medíocre espera tudo dos outros"
"Change is a threat when done to me, but an opportunity when done by me."
"As elites foram deixando de falar das exportações à medida que se foi percebendo que o país consegue exportar sem elas"
"Your toughest competition is the little voice inside your head telling you to stop"
"Pain is just weakness leaving your body"
"Built to last" is bad economics. Built to do something great" is the better idea. Think: "Creative destruction."
"the world is an uncertain place no matter how many Greek letter equations you affix to a problem."
"You never change things by fighting existing reality. To change s.th., build a new model making the existing model obsolete"
“No, no, you're not thinking; you're just being logical.”
"Success is not a destination. It's the trail you leave behind you."
"Winners make a habit of manufacturing their own positive expectations in advance of the event."
“You’ve got to start with the customer experience and work back toward the technology – not the other way around”
"Strategy as the "smallest set of - intended or actual - choices and decisions sufficient to guide all other choices and decisions sufficient to guide all other choices and decisions."
"When something is commoditized, an adjacent market becomes valuable"
"nature evolves away from constraints, not toward goals"
"There aren't any textbooks on what to stop doing!"
"With great power comes great irresponsibility "
"Weird things happen when you take price out of the equation for consumers"
"‘It’s so damn complex. If you ever think you have the solution to this, you’re wrong and you’re dangerous.’"
"Saruman believes it is only great power that can hold evil in check, but that is not what I have found. I found it is the small everyday deeds of ordinary folk that keep the darkness at bay. Small acts of kindness and love."
"Increasing stuff that doesn't add value dilutes existing value."
"O federalismo não é a alternativa à troika, é a troika para sempre."
"Never underestimate the difficulty of changing false beliefs by facts"
"Stressors are information"
“If you hear a “prominent” economist using the word ‘equilibrium,’ or ‘normal distribution,’ do not argue with him; just ignore him, or try to put a rat down his shirt.”
"The advantage of experiences over things for most of us is that we can make them seem unique, which = scarce, which = value"
"Pedras no caminho?
Guardo todas, um dia vou construir um castelo"
"Without risk, faith is an impossibility."
"Não posso com quem vive a achar que os outros lhe devem sempre alguma coisa."
"In a world of increasing automation, our ability to perform tasks is not nearly as important as our ability to dream. The questions we need to ask are not ones of action, but ones of meaning"
"Me arrancam tudo a força e depois me chamam de contribuinte."
"Letting people vote for expensive programs that “somebody else” will finance is a good recipe for getting people to vote irresponsibly"
"what's fairness gotta do with pricing based in value?"
"The epic battle of our generation is between the status quo of mass and the never-ceasing tide of weird."
“Price is emotional”
"There will always be a reason why you can't pursue it, until competitors create a reason why you must."
"The most important thing to study is opening theory"
"The greater the contrast, the greater the potential"
“Customers don't care about your solution, they care about their problems.”
"Todos querem conhecer a verdade, mas o que desejam é que lhes contem uma mentira em que não sejam protagonistas."
"Execution efficiency strangles innovation in the crib, but not with malice, by default.”
"Our obsession with scalability is getting in the way of unleashing the potential of the 21st century."
"The system is optimized to mitigate risk, not create value"
"Champions are made when no one is looking"
"Don't bargain on value. Half as expensive is often twice as cheap."
"Customers care about outcomes, not effort, technology, or originality."
" I can't believe it. That is why you fail."
"You don't have to pick between 1) playing the game and 2) not playing the game. You can *change* the game."
""The first principle is that you must not fool yourself and you are the easiest person to fool." "
"Debt may have ended up as a problem, but it always starts out as a solution."