Tinha de ser criativo ;-)

"As a side note on the accuracy of this government data, in a previous role at IKEA, when I was a much younger man, I was responsible for filling out the monthly government retail surveys for the Census Bureau. The government drones collecting this data do not check it. They do not require proof that it is right. It is self reported by retailers across the country. Filling out this crap for the government was about as low on my priority list as whale shit. If I was really busy, I’d make the numbers up, scribble them on the form and put it in the mail. The numbers the government are accumulating are crap. And then they massage the crap. And then they publish the crap as if it means something. It’s nothing but crap.
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When you see the headlines touting strong retail sales, you need to consider what you are actually seeing in the real world."

Isto fez-me recuar ao final dos anos 80 do século passado. Era um "reles estagiário" numa empresa a quem coube em sorte preencher um inquérito sobre o investimento e a investigação na empresa onde eu trabalhava.
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Acontece que eu nunca tinha lidado com aquele tipo de tema, não sabia quem tinha a informação, nem percebia porque é que tinha de ser um ignorante a preencher aquilo. Tinha de ser criativo ;-)
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No entanto, nunca falhei um preenchimento e envio para uma agência qualquer governamental.
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Trecho retirado "Kohl's And The Rest Of The Retailers Are In Deep Trouble".

Curiosidade do dia

Fiquei fascinado com este testemunho do Portugal anónimo que tem suportado esta comunidade há mais de oito séculos.
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Em Aldeia da Mota, Carvalhais, São Pedro do Sul, Viseu, Portugal.

BTW, que pena não ter fotografado o arruinado Solar dos Malafaia em Santa Cruz da Trapa, ainda tão bonito e imponente.

Gente de parabéns

"As exportações do setor das conservas de pescado em Portugal atingiram, em 2013, as 53 mil toneladas, ao nível do máximo histórico de 1923, segundo um estudo feito pelo antigo Subdiretor-Geral das Pescas António Duarte de Almeida.
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O estudo revela que "o setor conserveiro exporta tradicionalmente cerca de 70% da sua produção, representando mais de um quarto das exportações nacionais de produtos da pesca".
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a produção aumentou e a exportação de conservas de sardinha registou um aumento de 39% em volume e de 62% em valor nos últimos quatro anos, tendo havido ainda uma maior diversificação para a utilização de cavala, a par da sarda e do atum.
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as poucas fábricas de conservas em funcionamento, após terem sobrevivido aos apertos e dificuldades dos anos e períodos mais difíceis por que passou este sector produtivo, estão agora a produzir bastante mais do que o dobro das que existiam há quatro anos e tanto como as quatro centenas existentes em 1923", considera o antigo responsável pelas Pescas."

Trechos retirados de "Exportações de conservas de peixe igualam em 2013 máximo de 1923"

Desenhar cenários

Ao ler "Scenarios: A Hero’s Journey across Turbulent Systems":

"From simple causal loops, participant discussion builds more complex system maps, portraying (in this case) three distinct dynamic systems creating different potential outcomes for the global business environment over the next ten or so years."

Não pude deixar de fazer a ligação com a técnica que utilizo "assistia do seu acampamento, amedrontado, acobardado, aos desafios arrogantes do gigante Golias e..."
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Recordar:

Acerca do value-based pricing

"1. Price based upon your value, not your cost.
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The costs do not determine the price, [Moi ici: À atenção dos ministros da saúde que acham que os medicamentos devem ter um preço baseado na transparência dos custos] let alone the value. It is precisely the opposite; that is, the price determines the costs that can be profitably invested in to make a product desirable for the customer, at an acceptable profit for the seller.”
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In other words, the price is dictated by what the consumer is willing to pay. Period. And the costs to provide that good or service dictate how much or even whether the supplier provides them.
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2. All services are not created equal
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At its core, value pricing asserts that price is a subjective, not objective, measure of value. Your price should reflect what your customer is willing to pay – or said differently, the benefit they perceive. But, do all customers perceive value the same way?
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Depending on your industry, the answer is probably “no.”
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3. Don’t underprice yourself.
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Your price is a signal of your value. The lower your price, the lower your perceived value.
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4. Provide your customers with options…
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5. …but don’t provide too many options.
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If a business provides its customers with too many options, they run the risk of paralyzing the customer with indecision."

Trechos retirados de "Everything You Need to Know About Value-Based Pricing"

Curiosidade do dia

Esta manhã, na pista do jogging, encontrei esta evidência que restou de uma Genetta genetta (gineta) atropelada.

David tem tudo a ganhar em fugir de um confronto directo com Golias (parte III)

Parte I e parte II.
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Não esquecer o "disclaimer" da parte I: é perigoso e simplista comparar a competição entre unidades económicas a uma guerra entre inimigos. A economia não é necessariamente um jogo de soma nula. No entanto, há algumas lições e paralelismos interessantes.
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Esta frase é interessante para as PMEs:

“there are two types of warfare, asymmetric and stupid.” 

Como é que a sua empresa cria assimetria a seu favor?
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E como a paisagem competitiva enrugada está sempre a dançar e a mudar de forma, de repente, a assimetria que joga a nosso favor pode desaparecer e passar para a posse de outros.
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Como é que a sua empresa avalia o futuro das assimetrias de que depende hoje?

Acerca da incerteza sectorial

No país dos calimeros, sempre a suspirar por crescimento sustentado por impostagem aos contribuintes actuais ou futuros, convinha perceber o papel da crescente incerteza:

"It’s a cliché to say that the world is more uncertain than ever before, but few realize just how much uncertainty has increased over the past 50 years. To illustrate this, consider that patent applications in the U.S. have increased by 6x (from 100k to 600k annually) and, worldwide, start-ups have increased from 10 million to almost 100 million per year.  That means new technologies and new competitors are hitting the market at an unprecedented rate.  Although uncertainty is accelerating, it isn’t affecting all industries the same way. That’s because there are two primary types of uncertainty — demand uncertainty (will customers buy your product?) and technological uncertainty (can we make a desirable solution?) — and how much uncertainty your industry faces depends on the interaction of the two." 

 Trecho retirado de "The Industries Plagued by the Most Uncertainty"

Mais importante que o preço e o produto

Um texto que reflecte uma preocupação constante neste blogue e na minha actuação nas PMEs, "Could This Be More Important Than Price And Product?":

"what could ultimately be more important than price and product as it relates to the ultimate purchase decision by a consumer: customer service.
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It cannot be overstated just how vital and paramount customer service is to the overall customer experience. How can it be given the customer-centric world we now live in?"

Curiosidade do dia

Fruta da época.

Tornar a competição imperfeita, alterando as regras (parte II)

Parte I.
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Na linha da reflexão sobre alterar as regras do mercado, orquestrar uma alteração no ecossistema da procura:

"Companies fail to identify future opportunities because they do not have fresh business models
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Products and companies do not differentiate winners from losers; it is the right business models that do.
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Business model innovation is more profitable and more sustainable than product innovation and is badly needed in Europe today.
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Global competition requires a more holistic approach to business development that typically reflects business model thinking.
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overcoming the dominant logic of their industry remains the biggest barrier for experienced managers. Some innovators do it accidentally, some intuitively, but rather seldom as a systematic leadership task.
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The biggest challenge is learning how to unlearn. This is a challenge that should be taken up by business schools."

Trechos retirados de "The danger in missing the innovation moment".

Mais uma vez o exemplo do têxtil e vestuário

"As exportações da indústria têxtil portuguesa cresceram 10% nos primeiros 7 meses do ano, face ao mesmo período de 2013, para atingirem os 2,819 milhões de euros."

Trecho retirado de "Exportações têxteis mantêm crescimento"

E que histórias sobre a sua oferta costuma divulgar?

"An experience can consist of a product, for example a theatre play. An experience can also be a supplement to the product, such as a dinner at a certain restaurant, or the experience can be the whole package, making the experience not just a product, but a mental process, a state of mind, for instance an evening out combining dining and seeing a play. The main point here is that experiences are always more than just the product. The core of the product might be an experience, like a theatre play, but it is always more than this: it includes where it takes place, the décor, whether the seats are good or not and so forth. One can also gain an experience via technology, such as the web net or watching television. The experience can also be a supplement to a good or a service. It is not the product, but the supplements of it which provide the consumer with the experience. It is not the shoes, but the fact that these shoes are fashionable and show who you are, which is the experience.
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This is an experience you cannot get from just any pair of shoes. It is the design, the marketing, the usage and symbolic value of the shoes that makes them an experience. The shoes acquire a story or a theme and it is the story or the theme, rather than the product, which the consumers buy and cherish in the experience economy. The story or the theme is constructed to sell whatever the product might be, whether tangible or intangible: shoes, vacations, music, films, food, museum visits or events."

E que histórias sobre a sua oferta costuma divulgar? E que histórias sobre a sua oferta ganham ressonância no mercado?
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Quanto tempo dedica a pensar nas histórias que podem ajudar a criar a experiência adequada aos seus clientes-alvo?

Trecho retirado de "Introduction to experience creation" de Per Darmer and Jon Sundbo incluído em "Creating Experiences in the Experience Economy"

´Mais uma vez o exemplo do mobiliário

As exportações de mobiliário luso cresceram 10% em 2013.
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Nada mau!
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E como está a correr 2014?

"As exportações portuguesas de mobiliário e colchoaria aumentaram 12% até julho, em termos homólogos, para 820 milhões de euros, evidenciando que “o setor é cada vez mais uma certeza nos planos de negócio das empresas”, divulgou esta quinta-feira a APIMA."

Acerca do caminho para Mongo (parte VII)

Parte I, parte II, parte III, parte IV, parte V e parte VI.
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O relatório da Deloitte (ver parte V) prevê, como o fazemos aqui há vários anos, a fragmentação da oferta e procura em nichos e tribos que constituirão Mongo, o Estranhistão:

"Fragmentation will occur at different rates and to varying degrees across the economy. Much of the fragmentation is likely to occur in product design and commercialization activities.
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As fragmented players focus on product innovation and commercialization, what will happen to the established companies of today, and how will they capitalize on their advantages of scale or scope?"

Um exemplo interessante pode ser encontrado aqui "A Big Mac, Coke and side order of decline":

"Have many big consumer brands peaked? I ask this question because I believe a number of the world’s biggest products appear to be in structural decline....Sugary, carbonated beverages are seen by the younger generation as unhealthy. Once such trends become established they are difficult to reverse....younger customers are visiting McDonald’s less, and going instead to rival fast-casual chains. Diners want fresher, healthier food and a more bespoke offering. And what happens in America is likely to be followed in other territories....It may be that the health issues challenging Coca-Cola and McDonald’s are specific to those market leaders. But I suspect other factors are at play too. Customers younger than 30 are more promiscuous in their brand choices and have less product loyalty. The digital revolution has brought almost total price transparency, diminishing the ability of brands to charge more. Retailers are embracing own-label to defend their margins....
In both alcoholic and soft drinks, for example, almost all the growth is coming from smaller, independent producers."

Curiosidade do dia

Foi bom tê-las por cá.
Lembrem-se que estarei sempre à espera que regressem para anunciar a Primavera.
Já tenho saudades vossas, façam uma boa viagem.

Sempre associei a partida das andorinhas ao abaixamento da temperatura. Este ano surgiu-me uma nova teoria, elas vão embora por causa da redução do número de horas de sol, independentemente da temperatura.

Coisas que deveriam dar que pensar

Parem por um instante. Pensem na quantidade de especialistas, académicos, políticos, consultores, gurus, ... que nos últimos anos afirmam a pés juntos que o Apocalipse vem aí.
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Recordem, por exemplo, esta cena "Indústria nacional "vai sofrer muito com a valorização do euro"" de 29 de Abril de 2011.
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Depois disto o que é que tem acontecido às nossas exportações para fora da zona euro?
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Depois disto o que é que tem acontecido ao emprego nos sectores mais abertos à concorrência internacional?
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Ouviram alguma retratação?

Um primeiro passo

Finalmente uma medida correcta deste senhor, "Governo vai permitir produção de electricidade para autoconsumo".
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Uma medida na linha do que Rifkin prevê e, que acabará com o poder das utilities, a democratização da produção eléctrica.

Um exemplo das consequências do ROA

"72% of all new products don’t meet their revenue targets. And a quarter of companies, according to the same survey, confess that not one of their new offerings met its profitability goals.
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what’s causing this high failure rate
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[when a product fails] it’s not a technology problem or a pure R&D problem — it is really around marketing, customer segments, and of course pricing.
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Your survey also details how hard some companies are finding it to raise prices. For instance, you found that only a third of all planned price increases actually get implemented, and for every 5% price increase attempted, only about 1.9% is achieved. Why are companies having such a hard time raising prices?
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One of the odder findings in your survey is that 58% of companies say they are currently in a price war – but 89% of those blame their competitors, not themselves, for starting it. Why does pricing feel so out of executives’ hands?
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[Moi ici: ROA - Return of attention. O tempo que se investe numa coisa não pode ser usado para outra] For many years, CEOs and executives have focused on improving the bottom line through cost cutting, finding efficiencies in operations and the supply chain. Companies have gotten better and better at that. Pricing is also a highly impactful driver of revenue, but companies probably spent the least amount of time on it. Often it’s the most misunderstood driver in a corporate boardroom. It’s not something that gets a lot of attention in business school, relatively speaking. However, it is also one of the easiest things to change and companies tend to be more reactionary [than strategic] about it."

Trechos retirados de "The Silent Killer of New Products: Lazy Pricing"

Recordar "Aumentar preços"

Matar a galinha dos ovos de ouro - em directo

"Through the 1970s, Gucci ... stood with Hermès and Chanel in a high-cost, high-willingness-to-pay position, its brand resonating with elegance, wealth, and success."

Em 1984 a Gucci já não passava de uma pálida sombra do que fora como força de marca. Porquê?
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Porque luxo está associado a autenticidade e escassez. No entanto, a partir de 1975 a marca Gucci começou a ser aplicada a:

"the Gucci name proliferated like some kind of illness-inducing bacteria. Unbridled licensing plastered the name, along with the red-and-green logo, on sneakers, packs of playing cards, whiskey—in fact, on a total of 22,000 different products."

Ontem o JdN trazia esta história "“Chairman” da Ferrari abandona cargo depois de desacordos com CEO da Fiat". Contudo, a BloombergBusinessWeek  conta melhor a história em "Ferrari's Old Guard Fights Back Against Fiat's Marchionne":

"Marchionne wants to the put the Ferrari brand to work as he pushes to expand Fiat Chrysler’s lineup of high-end cars. Di Montezemelo, who has run Ferrari for 23 years and began his career as an assistant to founder Enzo Ferrari, wants to maintain the company as an autonomous unit within Fiat and safeguard its exclusivity by limiting sales to about 7,000 cars a year.
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Marchionne, who wants to develop new markets for Ferrari, said earlier this year that he could envision boosting annual sales to 10,000. That number is minuscule compared to the 4.4 million cars sold by Fiat Chrysler last year. But the profit margins are enormous: Ferrari accounted for 12 percent of Fiat’s operating profit. And with sticker prices ranging from about $200,000 to more than $400,000, Ferrari wants buyers to feel they are members of an exclusive club—owners of “a desirable object par excellence,” as di Montezemelo has put it. His fear is that Fiat Chrysler will over-expose the brand."

Já adivinho a bastardização da marca Ferrari, dentro de uns anos pode estar ao nível da Audi ou da BMW.

Citações sobre a Gucci retiradas de "The Strategist" de Cynthia A. Montgomery