A ilusão das regras (parte I)

Um excelente texto, "The Rule Illusion", a fazer lembrar todos aqueles que sem skin-in-the-game criam leis e mais leis:

"You could safeguard against rules that hinder people doing the right thing while failing to solve the presumed problem by ensuring the rule-makers themselves are subject to the rules they make. At least they would then experience first-hand the benefits and the costs involved.
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In practice, those who make the rules are often insulated from the true consequences. The lack of a good feedback mechanism to adjust the rules would be bad enough if the rules were based on evidence and logic. But it’s often even worse, because rules often originate from received (but dubious) wisdom, unproven ‘common sense’, or reactions to one-off events. Rules that are based on beliefs rather than evidence, and never tested, are unlikely to produce net benefits. Yet such rules are precisely the ones the makers feel most protective of."

Mas voltaremos a este texto por causa das greves de zelo e não só.

Desigualdade e empresas

Há anos que escrevo e defendo esta tese "Corporations in the Age of Inequality".

Basta pesquisar o marcador "distribuição de produtividades" e a frase "há maior variabilidade dentro de um mesmo sector de actividade do que entre sectores de actividade"

Na economia do século XX havia basicamente uma estratégia a seguir, a do preço, a do crescimento da quota de mercado, a do aumento da eficiência, a da localização no denominador da equação da produtividade.

Há medida que a economia do século XXI avança, uma economia onde há muito mais estratégias alternativas que não a do preço tout court, e recordo a imagem:

Diferentes abordagens estratégicas geram diferentes distribuições de produtividades e permitem diferentes rentabilidades. Assim, as diferenças entre empresas do mesmo sector começam a aumentar.

"Whereas many economists focus on inequality between individuals, Bloom’s view is filtered through his early work as a consultant at McKinsey, where he became interested in the impact of good management on the economy. “Economists have long dismissed the importance of management practices and were often skeptical of the value of management research,” says Bloom.
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Bloom was amazed by the variation in management practices he saw among clients — and by how convinced each client was that theirs was the best way.
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Bloom shares his research on the role firms and management play in the rise of income inequality. He highlights how competitive forces and corporate decision making have contributed to divergent outcomes for individuals and suggests that inequality can’t be fully understood without thinking about companies.
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Companies can contribute to rising income inequality in two ways. As we’ve just discussed, pay gaps can increase within companies — between how much executives and administrative assistants are paid, for example. But studies now show that gaps between companies are the real drivers of income inequality.
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We found that the average wages at the firms employing individuals at the top of the income distribution have increased rapidly, while those at the firms employing people in the lower income percentiles have increased far less.
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In other words, the increasing inequality we’ve seen for individuals is mirrored by increasing inequality between firms. But the wage gap is not increasing as much inside firms, our research shows. This may tend to make inequality less visible, because people do not see it rising in their own workplace."

Curiosidade do dia

"Alerta que "é muito fácil pregar as situações óptimas" e que "a opinião pública está anestesiada porque lhe é escamoteada a compreensão do problema [da dívida] e lhe é permanentemente afirmada a oferta ilusória que é impraticável". "A realidade far-se-á sentir na altura própria," adverte.
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Acrescenta ainda que as políticas sociais e o seu alcance também têm de ser trazidas à discussão "em função daquilo que é a realidade e a capacidade da economia. E se estamos a seguir um caminho certo (…) ou a viver a assimilação de uma sucessão de ilusões da qual só pode resultar um desastre," adverte."

Estes políticos profissionais carregados de culpas no cartório, chegam à reforma e continuam, sempre sem skin-in-the-game, como Vestais a proporem soluções como se tivessem aterrado agora vindos de Marte de onde sempre viveram.

Trechos retirados de "Jaime Gama diz que há uma "ilusão muito grande" sobre a dívida e economia portuguesas"

"Not losing deals is a clear indication you are leaving money on the table"

"When you lose on price, it really means that you didn’t deliver enough value for the price. Both sides matter.
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To avoid losing, you can do two things: lower your price or increase the value you deliver. Lowering your price is usually a horrible idea, so how can you increase value?
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Create more value by improving your product. You can add more capability, more features, more services. However, these additions must be valued by your market or you still won’t win at your price. Talk to your market to be certain what you are adding matters to them.
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Communicate your value better. You could have the best product in the world, but if your market doesn’t know it, you won’t get paid for it.
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As a rule of thumb, if you aren’t losing 10 percent of deals based on price, you should raise your prices. Of course, there is an emotional cost to losing deals, but we have to get over it. We are in the business of making money. Not losing deals is a clear indication you are leaving money on the table."

Trechos retirados de "Losing on Price"

"making their supply chains much more resilient"

Com algum atraso face a este blogue, os gringos começam a olhar a sério para as alterações nas cadeias de fornecimento globais. Apesar de tudo continuam ferrados nos custos:

"Most U.S. and European companies have spent the past 20 years concentrating more and more of their manufacturing in East Asia to reduce costs by exploiting labor-arbitrage opportunities and address the promise of that rapidly growing market. It’s time for them to rethink their supply-chain strategies. Adjusting to new economic realities as well as political and economic uncertainties will require making their supply chains much more resilient.
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There are three reasons a rethink is due:
East Asia’s shrinking cost advantage.
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Advances in manufacturing technology.
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A shift toward protectionism."

E nem uma palavra sobre a necessidade acrescida de rapidez, flexibilidade, co-criação, reposições rápidas, lotes pequenos, ...

Trechos retirados de "Rethinking Your Supply Chain in an Era of Protectionism"

"The market share mindset is the antithesis of a value mindset"

"One of the most important tests of your organization's maturity level and business orientation is how you use the word "commodity." If this is a common way for you to describe your products—internally and especially externally—you shouldn't be surprised if customers treat you as a commodity, meaning they argue that you have no differentiation. They have no desire at all to pay a premium. A commodity mindset shows that you don't have the right business orientation for VBP. ...Given maturity and a business orientation, there is also a difference between going through the motions and making the required changes and improvements. The volume-versus-value mindset is decisive. It is often the acid test for a transformation and for whether an organization is serious about it. ...You can spend all the money you want and create the culture you want, but if your organization is not willing to let go of market share, it will not change. Pretty brutal, but true. The market share mindset is the antithesis of a value mindset. It is the Jack Welch "be number r or number 2" mentality that still determines the way so many Gen Xers and Gen Yers run their businesses. I find it almost surreal in some companies that make market share into one of their most important and most reported KPIs."

Trechos retirados de Stephan M. Liozu em "Dollarizing Differentiation Value: A Practical Guide for the Quantification and the Capture of Customer Value"

Uma novela sobre Mongo (parte XXII)

 Parte I, parte II, parte III, parte IV, parte V, parte VI, parte VII, parte VIII, parte IX, parte X, parte XI, parte XII, parte XIII, parte XIV, parte XV, parte XVI, XVII, XVIII, parte XIX, parte XX e parte XXI.

Retorno à parte XX e a uma provocação de há dias no Twitter:

@Peliteiro @fassistapt @walternatez existe alguma Antral das análises q se possa sentir melindrada? https://t.co/hq42Llj02O

— Carlos P da Cruz (@ccz1) March 16, 2017

A propósito de "This Chip Costs One Cent and Can Diagnose Everything From Cancer to HIV".

E já agora:

o meu: "metam código nisso" https://t.co/ffJ1xNfsvF

— Carlos P da Cruz (@ccz1) March 19, 2017

Curiosidade do dia

Criticam o Dijsselbloem, no entanto:

• constroem aeroportos para moscas;
• torram dinheiro em estudos para TGV, o tal que faria a ligação de Madrid às praias;
• semeiam auto-estradas sem circulação como cogumelos;
• polvilham o país de estádios de futebol sem assistências;
• decretam que as empresas de transportes se devem marimbar para o EBITDA;
• querem critérios de fantochada para gerir a CGD;
• ...

e o burro sou eu.

Para reflexão

"Simply, the minute one is judged by others rather than by reality, the mechanism becomes warped as follows. Firms that haven’t gotten bankrupt yet have something called personnel departments, with people trained into a discipline of dealing with other peoples. So there are metrics used and “evaluation forms” to fill.
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The minute one has evaluation forms distortions occur.
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the mere fact than an evaluation causes you to be judged, not by the end results, but by some intermediary metric that invites you to look sophisticated, bring that distortion."

Por isso é que políticos viciados em "picking winners" gostam deste "distortions occur" e preferem que sejam candidaturas avaliadas por eles a definir quem deve ter lugar no mercado em vez dos clientes.

Trechos retirados de "Surgeons Should Not Look Like Surgeons"

Quinino* e Mongo

Artesanal, crescimento orgânico e este gráfico:

Os ingredientes indicados para logo de seguida a metáfora de Mongo surgir na minha mente.

"Earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation were equal to 35 per cent of group revenues.
Rivals squeeze less juice from sales.
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Fever-Tree is mixing with these bruisers as a lightweight with £100m in revenue and just 46 employees. Britvic, with a similar market worth, has 4,000 staff and revenue of £1.4bn.

Over the next few years, Fever-Tree aims to grow organically rather than through acquisition."

Como não pensar na cerveja artesanal...

Trechos e gráfico retirados de "Fever-Tree Drinks: domestic drama"

*Quinino - ingrediente da água tónica que lhe dá o sabor amargo. E que me faz recuar ao final dos anos 60 do século passado e ouvir o meu avô materno a falar dele como remédio em Angola.

"you need to understand value to find the prices that best fit your ..."

"You don't need to know pricing to understand value, but you need to understand value to find the prices that best fit your products, services, and strategic goals. Value management has three steps: creation, dollarization, and capture. These correspond to the deceptively simple questions I have asked throughout the book: What do you do for customers? What is it worth? How much of it will you capture? Only that last phase (capture) requires some knowledge of pricing."

Trecho e imagem retirados de Stephan M. Liozu em "Dollarizing Differentiation Value: A Practical Guide for the Quantification and the Capture of Customer Value"

"small slice of a huge market vs large slice of a small one"

Há dias reli Roger Martin em "The Big Lie of Strategic Planning" e voltei a apreciar este trecho:

"Companies in many industries prefer a small slice of a huge market to a large slice of a small one. The thinking is, of course, that the former promises unlimited growth potential. And there’s a certain amount of truth to that. But all too often, the size of the opportunity encourages sloppy strategy making. Why choose where to play or how to win when there’s a huge market to conquer? Anybody is a potential customer, so just go out and sell stuff.
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But when anyone could be a customer, it is impossible to figure out whom to target and what those people actually want. The results tend to be an offering that is not captivating to anybody and a sales force that doesn’t know where to spend its time. This is when crisp strategy making and clear thinking about opportunities are most important."

Foi dele que me lembrei ao ler "Google Glass Didn't Disappear. You Can Find It On The Factory Floor":

"Google Glass fizzled out and was discontinued in the consumer market.
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But now, it's getting a second life in the manufacturing industry.
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Google Glass tells her what to do should she forget, for example, which part goes where. "I don't have to leave my area to go look at the computer every time I need to look up something," she says.
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With Google Glass, she scans the serial number on the part she's working on. This brings up manuals, photos or videos she may need. She can tap the side of headset or say "OK Glass" and use voice commands to leave notes for the next shift worker."

E recordo que a locomotiva a vapor não surgiu para transportar pessoas, a sua primeira aplicação foi nas minas para substituir os cavalos no transporte de minério.

Nichos específicos permitem uma abordagem mais específica.

máquina a vapor minério

Curiosidade do dia

A clubite revela-se nestes pormaiores:

"o que é que Vítor Constâncio está lá a fazer".

Trecho retirado de "Belém acha "inacreditável" ameaça de BCE e Vítor Constâncio"

"You ain't seen nothing yet"

Ao ler "A idade como tendência":

"Os dias de casting de modelos na casa dos 20 anos e tamanhos pequenos ou, ainda, de tez branca, parecem estar a chegar ao fim, com as marcas de moda a começarem a ser mais representativas, especialmente quando se trata de usar modelos numa faixa etária diferente. A necessidade de mudança vem, ironicamente, dos números.
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Aqueles com mais de 60 anos constituem o grupo em maior crescimento nas populações dos países ricos e o seu número deverá aumentar mais de um terço até 2030, de 164 para 222 milhões. Os consumidores mais velhos são também os mais ricos, graças à inflação dos preços de imóveis e às suas reformas generosas."

Subitamente lembrei-me de um texto escrito aqui no blogue em 2006, "Spray maritimo que precede o splash da onda":

"Um dia, os noticiários da TV, as passagens de modelos, os anúncios de TV, os enredos dos filmes, ... serão protagonizados por gente com mais de 60 anos. Serão o espelho da sociedade..."

Apetece repetir as palavras de Reagan:

"You ain't seen nothing yet"

"imagining a preferred future and then stepping backward toward the present"

Trechos que parecem retirados deste blogue:

"We’ve been trained to think of the future as a linear extension of what we know, typically imagining change as a 10 percent improvement (or decline) from what we see around us.
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Technological, environmental and political changes will likely disrupt your business. How can you prepare for a different, even unimaginable world that will arrive faster than projected?
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Once you’ve identified your preferred future, you can start to identify key activities and milestones that would help create that future.
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Backcasting is the act of imagining a preferred future and then stepping backward toward the present, repeatedly probing what has to happen to enable each step.
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Backcasting is anchored in an aspirational future state rather than being constrained by limitations of the current state. This allows people to create their own richly detailed stories of the future and leads naturally to the discussion: “How can our product/service do that?”"

Trechos retirados de "How Leaders Dream Boldly to Bring New Futures to Life"

Recordar temas como "Começar pelo fim" ou "Mais uma vez e sempre: Começar pelo fim!!!" ou "future-back" approach to strategy" ou "Transformar uma empresa em 3 passos"

Turn, turn, turn

Tudo é transiente, tudo é transitório, tudo é passageiro.

As estratégias são sempre passageiras, mais tarde ou mais cedo o mundo muda e as estratégias para lidar com ele têm de mudar sob pena de ficarem obsoletas.

Interessante como a transformação de um mercado de nicho num mercado maior acabou por tornar inadequada uma estratégia até então bem sucedida. O caso da Whole Foods, "How Whole Foods Can Emerge from a Slump", deve servir de aviso para quem trabalha para nichos que estão a crescer fortemente.

Conspiração (parte II)

Parte I.

A conspiração continua. Desta vez via "To change the game, change the business model":

"Change the interaction and you’ll find a different business model.
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Seen from a traditional business perspective, businesses are just business models competing against each other; it’s why we have all this sameness out in the world. But what if you shift your perspective, look at things differently and change the components of the business model?"

Curiosidade do dia

Então a culpa dos nossos males foi da troika, "Troika "cortou" a felicidade dos portugueses".

Assim, é difícil aprender a não voltar a cometer os mesmos erros.

PS: Há os que acreditam em pagar a dívida, trouxas, segundo outros.

Conspiração

Parece uma conspiração ... depois de "Cuidado com as explicações generalistas simplistas" encontro outro trecho que me fez regressar à tal reunião:

"You can dollarize anything!
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I am always excited when I hear stories about companies that have transitioned from being a product-focused company deriving over 8o percent of their revenue from unit sales to a service-oriented one deriving over 8o percent of their revenue from consulting and other services. And this happens all within the same industry with the same customers! These companies accomplish this because they understand the value of all the things companies do, and they offer clients economically attractive alternatives. ... Similar to what you would do in product development or in reverse-engineering, you are using a cross-functional team to understand how much it would cost you to deliver a particular service. Then you try to understand the cost that a customer incurs when they perform that service themselves. These services could be maintenance, application decisions, plant or supply chain management, or any other areas that a company could potentially outsource. If you can document a way to offer that service more economically (cost savings) or do it better (creating a revenue opportunity), you have the ability to conduct a rational, value-based talk with customers."

Trechos retirados de "Dollarizing Differentiation Value: A Practical Guide for the Quantification and the Capture of Customer Value"

Viemos de longe e o que nós andámos para aqui chegar! (parte II)

Há dias o @nticomuna chamou a atenção para este desempenho a nível do turismo (dados do INE):

Recordar "A alternativa de qualidade" e, sobretudo, "A economia não é um jogo de soma nula".

Até que enfim que leio opiniões mais avisadas do sector da hotelaria:

"CEO do Vila Galé assume que o alojamento local completa oferta turística.
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"Não sou nada radical e acho que há espaço para todos. O alojamento local tem o seu papel. Em alguns sítios não existiam hotéis e por isso vieram colmatar uma lacuna de falta de alojamento. E outros vieram captar um público que prefere aquele tipo de alojamento", diz o hoteleiro, sublinhando: "Enquanto hotéis temos é de perceber o que está a atrair as pessoas para o alojamento local em algumas situações em detrimento dos hotéis.""

Quase que apetece repetir o título "Viemos de longe e o que nós andámos para aqui chegar!"

Talvez seja explicado por aquela teoria que defendo: infelizmente, na maioria das associações, quem chega ao seu poder são os elementos mais conservadores, os que têm mais a ganhar com o manobrar das relações com o poder regulador/legislador.

Recordar "o poder, para o bem ou para o mal, das associações" e, sobretudo, "O poder das associações e nas associações"