quarta-feira, junho 16, 2010

O jornal económico do regime demorou 13 anos

João Cravinho é presença assídua neste blogue por causa das SCUTS.
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Lembro-me de Cravinho na TV a defender as SCUTS para lá de qualquer razoabilidade. E aquilo que para mim, já na altura, era claro e evidente, só agora é que chega ao mainstream:
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"As SCUT são um erro. Hoje em dia é uma evidência praticamente consensual, mas esta conclusão podia ter sido tirada há muitos anos. Ou seja, a crise económica e orçamental apenas vieram sublinhar com um marcador vermelho uma realidade que já era percebida desde o início.

A paternidade da má decisão política foi de João Cravinho em 1997, no primeiro Governo de António Guterres. Ele é o pai das SCUT. E os problemas estão lá desde o início. Por um lado, os utilizadores não tinham noção do custo. Ou seja, dá uma noção de gratuitidade que é perigosa. Como todos sabemos, não há almoços grátis. Assim, por outro lado, todos os contribuintes pagavam as SCUT, embora só alguns circulassem. Agora percebe-se que o fardo a suportar pelas contas públicas é demasiado pesado. É um luxo que o país não pode suportar. E percebe-se agora também que a aposta nas estradas foi exagerada. Portugal tem estradas de rico mas é pobre. Devia-se ter seguido uma política pública mais equilibrada, colocando mais fichas noutra cor. A ciência, a investigação e a cultura são boas alternativas aos exageros do alcatrão."
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Trecho retirado do artigo "O disparate das SCUT" publicado no jornal económico do regime.
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Já agora, o mesmo jornal do regime podia aplicar os mesmos critérios e chegar à conclusão que vai chegar daqui a alguns anos, pressionado pela realidade, e começar já a criticar o TGV, a 3ª ponte e outras masturbações do regime.
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BTW, porque é que ninguém confronta Cravinho com as gravações do tempo em que prometia SCUTS como o caminho para a felicidade de uma comunidade?

Ou a ditadura do federalismo ou o caos...

Quando Teresa de Sousa aparece na Antena 1 a criticar alguém... imediatamente, por princípio, tomo a defesa desse alguém.
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Ontem veio defender que se Portugal não tivesse aderido à então CEE tinha sido o descalabro...
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Há sempre alternativas! Não sei se estaríamos melhor ou pior, seria diferente com outras alternativas, com outros constrangimentos.

Apologia da flexibilidade

Para os que acreditam na quota de mercado como o indicador todo-poderoso, para os que têm medo dos gigantes, para os que hesitem em defrontar os gigantes (sem aprender com a Al-Qaeda ou o Hezzbolah):
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"Early in his tenure as CEO of General Electric, Jack Welch promulgated a hard-nosed policy for his company’s divisional managers: Either get to be number 1 or number 2 in your markets, he warned them, or expect to be dumped by the Mother Ship. And Welch delivered on his threat: He unloaded 117 businesses—or 1 in every 5 GE businesses— valued at $9 billion. When the heads of those number 3 and number 4 industry players protested, pointing out that (in many cases) they were highly profitable,

Now, I’d be the first to admit that Welch had some housecleaning to do when he first took the helm at GE. Nevertheless, there is one thing wrong with this … approach. It assumes that someone in the organization can define “market share” in a meaningful (i.e., “profitable”) way. As the BMW/DaimlerChrysler example amply illustrates, fuzzy thinking about market share can infiltrate the corner offices of some of the world’s smartest corporations.
Insisting on being number 1 or number 2 in your market—without first having a very clear understanding of what definition of market share really drives profitability—can take some very interesting opportunities off the table. Howard Stevenson, an expert in entrepreneurship at Harvard Business School, jokingly used to thank Jack Welch for creating so many good opportunities for “the rest of us.”
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As mighty GE packed its bags, unfurled its sails, and sailed out of the harbor, smaller competitors were quite happy to move in on the abandoned territory.”
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Trecho retirado de "Where Value Hides" de Stuart Jackson

Persistência, paciência, paciência e paciência

"As marcas são sempre bons negócios, mas demoram muito tempo a construir. Eu tenho 18 anos de uma marca que neste momento começa a ser um bom negócio (risos).
Nas grandes casas internacionais ninguém fez uma marca a sério com menos de 20 anos." (Moi ici: isto significa muito trabalho, planeamento, persistência, paciência, paciência e paciência)
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"Quais os principais atributos da sua marca?
É ser única. As marcas só têm sucesso quando têm personalidade própria. Às vezes é-me difícil explicar aquilo que faço. Na verdade, o que eu faço é trabalhar. Há negócios mais fáceis, mais rápidos do que a moda. Eu nunca tive pressa, nunca fiz nada em cima do joelho. Faço o que gosto, com qualidade, mantendo o nível, crescendo e diversificando. E as coisas vão acontecendo."
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Trechos retirados da entrevista de Fátima Lopes ao Jornal de Negócios do passado dia 11 de Junho.

terça-feira, junho 15, 2010

Anedota

"Bruxelas quer que Portugal especifique medidas de austeridade para 2011"
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"A Comissão Europeia considera que as medidas de austeridade anunciadas por Portugal e Espanha são “apropriadamente ambiciosas”, mas pede aos dois países que especifiquem o que irão fazer em 2011 para reduzir o défice orçamental."
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This is so cool!!!
This is so un-Portuguese.
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Portuguese governments are not professional pool players, they work within a very short timeframe. Last September the government forecasted a deficit of 5,x%, then on December 8,x%, to get an actual 9,4% in January 2010.
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Now, the EU comission is asking what the Portuguese government intends to do next year to reinforce austerity measures...
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Next year?!?!?! Are they kidding? Portuguese governments will think about that next year.
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This time last year, the Banco de Portugal (Portuguese Central Bank) top management intended to increase their own wages by merely 5%.
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Next year?!?!?!
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"Planning is an unnatural process; it is much more fun to do something. And the nicest thing about not planning is that failure comes as a complete surprise rather than being preceded by a period of worry and depression."
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Pensando melhor... there is nothing to think, we all know what the Portuguese government will do in 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, ..... 2056, 2057, ... they will do the only thing they know... raising taxes.

O exemplo alemão

Pensam que a Alemanha está bem?
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Pensem bem!
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Acham que a Alemanha está a viver à sombra da bananeira?
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Interessante e exemplar artigo da revista Der Spiegel "German Economy on Brink of Radical Restructuring"
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" The Ruhr is still struggling to cope with the loss of its former core industries in recent decades. And it's totally uncertain whether the industrial conversion in Emden will succeed. There's no doubt, however, that the change is necessary -- and painful. In Emden. In the Ruhr region. Everywhere in Germany, in the third year of the global crisis.

Germany is on the threshold of a tremendous upheaval, and 2010 will show how it will cope with the decline of old industries and the emergence of new ones. It will be a year of renewal for Germany, but also a year of uncertainty for companies and their employees. The foundations for the future of Germany are now being laid. Now is the time when German firms will find out which products remain globally competitive, and which ones won't. "
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"The German economy coped astonishingly well with the global crisis in 2009. But in 2010 it will need to lay the foundations for a radical restructuring if it wants to cope with chronic overcapacity in its aging industries and fend off powerful new competitors from China and India. Does the country need a new business model? SPIEGEL provides an outlook for 2010.

The ship-launching ceremony at the quayside of the German North Sea port of Emden was decidedly low-key. No one held a speech, and there was no orchestra as the container ship Frisia Cottbus slipped into the water shortly before Christmas. The mood was as somber as a funeral, which wasn't surprising because the launch marked the quiet end of a proud era -- it was the last container ship that will ever be launched by the Nordseewerke shipyard. Its 106-year history of shipbuilding is over.
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But now the parent company, ThyssenKrupp, sees no future for shipbuilding in Emden, and the outlook isn't much better for the other German shipyards. Six of a total of 40 firms in the sector filed for insolvency in 2009. No other industry has been worse affected by the global economic crisis.

But the death of shipbuilding in Emden may herald the beginning of a new industry. The new owner of the yard, SIAG Schaaf Industrie AG, plans to convert it to building steel underwater foundations for wind farms. If the purchase agreement is signed and sealed in January, as planned, company owner Rüdiger Schaaf will invest €40 million ($58 million) in new equipment and transform Emden into a center for wind-power engineering. Under Schaaf's plan, a total of 720 out of 1,200 shipyard workers will keep their jobs.

Painful Transformation

Schaaf has likened the industrial transformation underway in Emden to that of the Ruhr coal and steel region of western Germany. The Ruhr is still struggling to cope with the loss of its former core industries in recent decades. And it's totally uncertain whether the industrial conversion in Emden will succeed. There's no doubt, however, that the change is necessary -- and painful. In Emden. In the Ruhr region. Everywhere in Germany, in the third year of the global crisis.

Germany is on the threshold of a tremendous upheaval, and 2010 will show how it will cope with the decline of old industries and the emergence of new ones. It will be a year of renewal for Germany, but also a year of uncertainty for companies and their employees. The foundations for the future of Germany are now being laid. Now is the time when German firms will find out which products remain globally competitive, and which ones won't. It's already been made clear that there's no world market anymore for container ships, mass-produced clothing, mobile phones or consumer electronics made in Germany. Others can produce those things more cheaply, and better.

This crisis is accelerating the pace of structural change. These days, an increasing number of foreign competitors are capable of producing things that had previously been the domain of German companies. The crisis is exacerbating the process because it has made customers focus even more heavily on price, thereby subjecting businesses to merciless scrutiny in terms of their cost efficiency and quality."
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""There's a race against time going on," says Henrik Enderlein, an economist at the Berlin-based Hertie School of Governance. Unless the economy soon starts growing so strongly that activity returns to normal -- which most economists don't expect -- companies will start laying off workers in the coming months. "We will start seeing the first negative effects on the labor market in the early summer," Enderlein says."

Bigger may be worse

"When it comes to operating a successful business—as the common wisdom goes—bigger is better.
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Bigger means you have more purchasing power. Bigger means that your fixed costs are spread over a larger base, which—as a rule— helps your profitability. Bigger means that it’s scarier to compete against you, and maybe fewer competitors will venture into your market space. In many cases, bigger means that you’ve successfully acquired or otherwise vanquished many of your competitors, which gives you the opportunity to raise your prices with relative impunity, which means you can spend more on research and development (R&D) and on marketing your product, which means that you’ve created a virtuous circle.
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Much of the thinking coming out of universities and consulting firms in the past half century follows these general lines. For the most part, the scholars and consultants have argued that big companies have big advantages vis-à-vis their smaller competitors. Or, conversely, they argue that the little fish must eventually be forced out of the pond.
So bigger is better, right?
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Not necessarily. In this chapter, I argue that in many cases bigger is worse. I’m not just talking about conglomerates that compete in multiple industries. I show that even within a specific industry, bigger is not always better."
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Trecho retirado de "Where Value Hides" de Stuart Jackson.

Não há sectores obsoletos

Há sim estratégias obsoletas, e se a Associação do sector agarrasse este conceito com ambas as mãos... isto poderia ser ainda muito melhor "Exportações têxteis iniciam recuperação".

Aguardemos...

Hummmm!!!
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O canário espanhol...

Portugal é uma economia pequena, por isso, é objecto de pouca atenção ou estudo.
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O que estará a passar-se com o nosso país?
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Enquanto por cá continua a paranóia, em Espanha temos:
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segunda-feira, junho 14, 2010

O futuro da Alemanha no euro

"Does Germany or Greece leave the Euro first?"

A destruição está a ocorrer, falta a criatividade

"Falências aumentaram 10% no início deste ano":
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"Até ontem, 1836 sociedades entraram em insolvência, um aumento de quase 10% face aos números do ano passado, de acordo com os dados do Instituto Informador Comercial, a que o DN teve acesso. Em média, são 11,2 insolvências por dia. O número de insolvências, que no final do primeiro trimestre pouco ultrapassava as mil, regista um crescimento de 50% face a Junho de 2008."
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Com base neste artigo de Abril "Aumento de insolvências em 2010 mostra que a "crise não está encerrada", diz professor universitário" podemos concluir que o número de insolvências está a acelerar.
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Pormenores sobre os sectores mais afectados podem ser consultados aqui.
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Os números ilustram que a destruição está a ocorrer, que a micro-economia que não se consegue adaptar à competição e ao saque dos impostos está a fechar.
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O que é que é preciso para desencadear a faísca da criatividade, a que gera a criação de riqueza?

Apetece perguntar...

A propósito de "CP Carga já está em falência técnica" apetece perguntar:
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  • Será que têm um modelo de negócio?
  • Será que têm um plano de negócio?
  • Será que têm clientes-alvo?

Competências associadas a um posicionamento

Continuado daqui.
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Uma vez identificados os vários segmentos de clientes, há que equacionar quais os que podemos servir melhor. Por isso, faz sentido identificar quais as competências existentes na organização.
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Arnoldo Hax propõe:
"Keep the following in mind with respect to determining the firm’s underlying competencies of each of the eight strategic positions:
Best Product
• Low Cost: Identify the capabilities that allow us to get significant advantages in
our cost infrastructure relative to our competitors.
• Differentiation: Examine the superior attributes that we possess and that allow us to develop and deliver a stream of products with characteristics distinct from the rest of the pack.
Total Customer Solutions
• Redefining the Customer Relationship: Analyze the advantages we might have surfaced from a deep understanding of our customers and the way we attract, satisfy, and retain them.
• Customer Integration: Assess the nature of our unique knowledge base and develop a firm understanding of how it can be transferred to our customers for enriching the solutions to their most critical problems, thus enhancing their profitability.
• Horizontal Breadth: Review and catalog the fullness of the portfolio of products and services that we can provide to our customers either alone or with the support of our Extended Enterprise.
System Lock-In
• Restricted Access: Look at the existence of possible barriers to entry that impede our competitors from reaching into our customer base, and the barriers to exit that hold our customers in our orbit.
• Dominant Exchange: Examine our capacity to transfer to our customers systems that we own and are critical to the conduct of their business.
• Proprietary Standards: Detect our capacity to generate important and impacting intellectual value that attracts complementors and produces a strong network that, to a great extent, we are able to control."

domingo, junho 13, 2010

Sinal dos tempos...

"Deutsche Mark Quotations Restored At German Financial Portal"

Pobre Freddy Krugman

"Dealing With Chermany"
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"And it’s also important to send a message to the Germans: we are not going to let them export the consequences of their obsession with austerity.
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Nicely, nicely isn’t working. Time to get tough."
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Os alemães vão demonstrar que a treta das ideias de Krugman são isso mesmo, treta, e é disso mesmo que ele tem medo.
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Segmentar os vários tipos de clientes

Voltando ao delta que ilustra 8 posicionamentos estratégicos possíveis, como proposto por Arnoldo Hax no seu livro "The Delta Model":
"We want to segment customers to identify the best value proposition for each one of them. We cannot and should not treat every customer equally, because they are different. If we do not recognize this, we are making the fatal mistake of commoditizing customers, which ultimately leads toward the commoditization of the business. We have said, “Commodities only exist in the minds of the inept.”
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This is basically true because there is no such thing as a commodity customer, which implies that there is no such a thing as a commodity business.
However, in most cases, we cannot deal from the outset with every customer as if it were a unique, singular entity. We need to find a comfortable middle ground. This is accomplished by a process of segmentation that identifies differences among the whole customer base but seeks some similarities in subgroups of customers that share similar requirements.We call these entities customer tiers. The art and science of customer segmentation – which is much more art than science – is to find proper criteria that will allow us to perform the segmentation in the most appropriate way."
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Hax, depois dá o exemplo do caso da Castrol:
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"Castrol is one of the leading lubricant companies in the world. They realized that playing the Best Product strategy was not going anywhere, since the business was getting commoditized and differentiation through premium products was not generating a sustainable competitive advantage. Typically, 6 months after they would successfully introduce a new premium lubricant, competitors would launch a similar product. Selling lubricants by the gallon was not a very compelling proposition.
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First, in the process of making lubricants, Castrol had accumulated a remarkable degree of knowledge about plant maintenance. (Moi ici: algo que demora anos a atingir) This is not surprising, since the purpose of a lubricant is to improve the productivity of machinery and equipment of the plant. Rather than using this knowledge strictly for the development of new products, the idea that emerged was that it could be transferred to select customers with consequences that were far more important than merely delivering lubricants.
The second realization was that services were much more critical than products to fight a commoditization syndrome. Product can seldom, if ever, be massively customized; services, on the other hand, are inherently customizable.
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In order to develop an effective set of value propositions, Castrol undertook a careful customer segmentation project. Often, companies segment markets. Castrol certainly did that by identifying the major clusters of business applications: cement, sugar, pulp and paper, textile, food and beverage, wood, mining, and glass. But that was not enough. The brilliant next step for Castrol was to identify, within each market segment, which customers to target with varying degrees of priorities. They performed that task by recognizing the different attitudes the customers had about accepting a full Total Customer Solutions approach.
They considered three Tiers.
  • Primary Target Segment – Productivity-Conscious Customers.
These customers are eager to receive support that will enhance their productivity,
reduce total costs, and promote higher sales.
  • Secondary Target Segment – Cost-Conscious Customers.
These customers are concerned about total costs but they believe new production
does not necessarily yield higher sales or economies of scale.
  • The Least Desirable Segment – Price-Conscious Customers.
These customers are basically buying from the supplier that offers the lowest
price."
Ou sistematizando de forma a ir ao âmago:
"This segmentation is also very useful in helping to decommoditize the full business base. It recognizes that there are some legitimate customers, who fit in the transaction category, that only want a standard product at the lowest price from you.
The reason behind that, most of the time, is that they are self-sufficient. The other two tiers offer opportunities for customization and uniqueness of delivery with different degrees of value added. The Support tier expects some help, normally in cost reduction. The Relationship tier seeks as full and complete assistance as it can be given, hoping that this will result in increases of revenues and profitability, as well as cost and productivity improvements."
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Por vezes, quando pergunto numa empresa quem são os seus clientes-alvo, a resposta sabe-me a pouco, sabe-me a algo de arcaico. Em vez da segmentação dos clientes mostram-me a segmentação dos mercados por diferentes parâmetros: demografia; geografia; canal; dimensão; rentabilidade; ...

sábado, junho 12, 2010

Lidar com as prateleiras

Para terminar a minha leitura do livro de Neil Rackham "Rethinking the Sales Force - Redefining Selling to Create and Capture Customer value" escrito em 1999... 1999!!!
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Destaco este trecho sobre o papel e a importância dos canais de distribuição, os "donos das prateleiras":
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"Most suppliers will need to change their thinking about channels in some very fundamental ways. First of all, suppliers have historically thought about the value channels created for thembut seldom about the value created for customers.
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This does not mean that value to suppliers isn't important - just that it's no longer enough. Success in the future is going to require thinking much more about value both to end users and to the channel players themselves.
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In addition to focusing on value for the customer, suppliers need to rethink their role in ensuring channel performance, especially when it comes to intermediary channels - those that are not supplier owned. One of the major mistakes most suppliers make is to treat intermediary channels as self-managing and to assume that the channel doesn't need the management time and attention that it would get if it were a direct, owned sales force.
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As a result of this logic, many suppliers focus little or no attention on how the agent or franchisee is running the business. When there are supplier's people devoted to the channel, they are usually spread very thinly, and they tend to view their role as "relationship management""
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Escrito em 1999... o que é que as marcas fizeram?
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Relações profundas não se quantificam

Em Maio de 2006 escrevia, acerca da avaliação da satisfação dos clientes, sobre como utilizar os resultados numéricos de uma campanha de recolha de opiniões, para desencadear acções de melhoria alinhadas pelas prioridades dos clientes.
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Em Maio de 2010 escrevi acerca do ponto fraco da abordagem de 2006 - a comoditização.
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Em Julho de 2009 escrevi "Cada vez mais, estou convencido de que este Santo Graal de obter uma pontuação do grau de satisfação dos clientes... serve para muito pouco".
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Hoje, encontro um interessante texto de Roger Martin "The Secret to Meaningful Customer Relationships" acerca do perigo da quantificação das relações...
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"subordinates generally object to receiving qualitative performance feedback from their superior, especially if it is at all negative. They typically are dismissive of the qualitative feedback and ask for the feedback to be on a quantitative basis only.
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Jensen's counter-intuitive advice to the superior is not to apologize for the qualitative nature of the feedback but rather to tell the subordinate that if he could actually be evaluated using purely quantitative measures, his job should be outsourced. That is because if everything important about his work could be defined quantitatively, it would be easy and more efficient to design a contract with clearly defined service level agreements with an outsourced provider."
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"The same logic applies to a firm's relationships with customers. If our understanding of customers is based entirely on quantitative analysis, we will have a shallow rather than deep relationship with them.

This runs against the prevailing view of customer understanding. Quantitative customer analysis with a large statistically significant sample and multiple choice questions that enable quantitative analysis of the answers is deemed 'rigorous'. Qualitative customer research that uses small samples and conversational and/or observational approaches is considered by many to be lax and/or shoddy — and certainly unscientific."
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"if you want a deep relationship with your customers don't spend your time talking to them through the vehicle of quantitative research tools."
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Recentemente, a trabalhar com uma empresa em que estou a facilitar a implementação de um sistema de gestão segundo as boas-práticas da ISO 9001:2008, concordamos em não usar inquéritos para medir a opinião ou a satisfação dos clientes. Será redigido um guião de auxílio a uma "conversa" com o cliente sobre alguns temas. As respostas serão tratadas e, a partir daí será elaborado um relatório como entrada para uma reunião de análise e tomada de decisões e acções.

sexta-feira, junho 11, 2010

Fim ao deboche do endividamento

"Alguns especialistas argumentam que a única forma de salvar o euro é acompanhar a união monetária com uma união orçamental. A receita que defendem passa por políticas de impostos mais elevados, gastos sociais mais altos (e défices não demasiado baixos) nas grandes economias do norte da Europa, na Alemanha e na França. Mas isso seria um grande erro. O que é necessário são limitações à política orçamental de cada país e não uma autoridade orçamental supranacional.
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O problema que enfrentam muitas democracias avançadas, na Europa e em outras partes do mundo, é o crescente nível dos gastos públicos, dos impostos e da dívida pública. Em conjunto, estes factores afectam seriamente o crescimento económico. Em resposta a esta tendência, o Fundo Monetário Internacional apela a um regresso aos rácios da dívida pública que existiam antes da crise. De outra forma, a explosão da dívida pública vai permanentemente diminuir o crescimento do rendimento per capita em um terço ou mais nas economias avançadas - uma estagnação permanente surpreendente - e afectaria a capacidade dos governos de enfrentar a próxima recessão.
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As principais lições do fiasco da dívida grega não são novas: 1) os governantes eleitos ignoram, sistematicamente, os custos de longo prazo para alcançaram benefícios no curto prazo; 2) esperam para agir quando são forçados a fazê-lo; 3) as políticas governamentais não podem evitar as leis da economia; 4) os governos não podem anular as leis da aritmética; e 5) a política orçamental não é mera contabilidade.
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Quando um Governo pede um euro emprestado (ou um dólar, libra, peso ou yuan), compromete-se a pagar este euro ao valor actual do pagamento de juros futuros e à eventual devolução do capital.
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Esse dinheiro deve ser proveniente de impostos mais elevados, de uma erosão do valor real dos balanços monetários e da dívida pública através da inflação. Ou directamente de um incumprimento de pagamentos e da reestruturação da dívida. Os eventuais custos de qualquer destas acções são severos.
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Além disso, o problema não é apenas a dívida pública. Um rácio mais elevado entre impostos e produto interno bruto apenas troca o problema do défice por um crescimento económico mais lento. Nas últimas décadas, as grandes economias avançadas com impostos mais elevados cresceram muito mais lentamente. E as economias com impostos mais elevados nem sequer registaram défices orçamentais mais pequenos do que os Estados Unidos, uma economia com impostos mais baixos; impostos mais elevados apenas permitiram maiores gastos.
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Assim, será melhor que cada país aplique sérias limitações legais à autoridade orçamental dos seus legisladores. Restrições aos défices orçamentais são um início mas não são suficientes. O imenso crescimento do estado social e a subida dos défices e das dívidas públicas tornaram-se nas maiores fontes de riscos económicos sistémicos tanto a nível nacional como global. Por isso, é preciso aplicar restrições simultâneas aos gastos, impostos e dívida para evitar crises económicas e financeiras futuras.
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O problema não é que os governos tenham falta de recursos para gastar mas que o aumento dos gastos, impostos e da dívida pública estão a afectar negativamente o crescimento económico e os padrões de vida futuros. Este futuro parece estar no horizonte não apenas na Europa, mas em todo o lado, a não ser que os governos restrinjam os seus gastos."
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Trechos retirados do Jornal de Negócios "Hora de restringir o governo" de Michael J. Boskin