Análise do contexto (parte I)

O WSJ da passada sexta-feira abre o caderno "Business & Finance" com o artigo "MGM Resorts Said No to Ransom":

"MGM Resorts International refused to pay hackers' ransom demand in a September cyberattack that threw its Las Vegas Strip resorts into chaos and crippled its properties and technology nationwide, according to a person familiar with the matter.

Service disruptions from the attack and efforts to resolve the issue will cost the company more than $100 million in the third quarter, MGM said in a regulatory filing Thursday."

Depois, na página B4 do mesmo caderno encontro "Clorox Warns of Costs From Cyberattack":

"Clorox so far has spent $25 million to respond to a suspected ransomware attack, including hiring forensic investigators and legal and technology help. More cyber expenses are expected to arise in 2024, the company said." 

O que é que as PMEs portuguesas estão a fazer para se protegerem desta realidade? 

A velha estória da caneta

No WSJ da passada sexta-feira li "3M Innovation Suffers Dry Spell" de onde sublinhei:

"The 20th century belonged to the unruly minds at 3M.

From its early days, the American manufacturing giant gave its researchers a long leash to chase ideas, many to dead-ends. The hits, though, were indelible: Scotch tape. Masking tape. Videotape. Post-it Notes. N95 masks. Artificial turf. Heart medication. 

3M patented adhesives and abrasives, as well as proprietary coatings and films that reflect light, repel water and insulate against cold and heat-materials at the heart of highway signs, weatherproof windows and stain-resistant clothing and carpets. Its optical film brightened the screens of millions of laptops, smartphones and flat-screen TVs. A cautious air has since settled on the 3M headquarters and research campus in Maplewood, Minn., dampening the restless ambition that built the company, according to some investors and company veterans. There are fewer new products and fewer still have been blockbusters, a dry spell that couldn't have arrived at a worse time.

...

Current and former scientists say the strategy makes it more difficult for fresh ideas to survive a gantlet of management naysayers. For decades, 3M released a cascade of new items on the market, confident most would be profitable and a few would become indispensable. The company has retreated from its traditional goal of earning around 30% of revenue from new products.

"Senior management has deluded themselves into thinking they can pick winners and losers, when in reality we need to generate more products so we can get into test markets to see what works," said Robert Asmus, a former 3M healthcare scientist and member of the Carlton Society, the company's highest honor for science and engineering.

...

3M's innovation principles took shape more than a century ago under William McKnight, who grew up as a farm boy in South Dakota.

McKnight joined 3M as an assistant bookkeeper a few years after its founding in 1902 and became its president. He helped guide the company from a sandpaper maker to a manufacturer of thousands of industrial, automotive and home products. Though McKnight began his career at the dawn of the assembly line era, he believed in worker autonomy and initiative. "Mistakes will be made, but if the man is essentially right himself, I think the mistakes he makes are not so serious in the long run as the mistakes management makes if it is dictatorial," he said, according to a company history. He instituted what became known as the McKnight principles. One of them allowed researchers to spend 15% of their time on projects unrelated to their everyday tasks even if managers disapproved. The principles championed collaboration, encouraging researchers to share findings. The Post-it Note came about after scientist Art Fry, bedeviled by paper bookmarks falling out of his church hymnal, remembered a semi-sticky adhesive discussed at a company seminar. The product was an instant success after it hit stores in 1980.

...

Rob Kieschke, a former research director who left the company last year, said 3M's weakening position in the smartphone display market is a symptom of its troubles. Researchers are encouraged to pursue incremental improvements to existing products rather than novel, swing-for the fences breakthroughs.

"If you start forcing people to eliminate risk, then all you end up doing is what has been done before or what everyone else is doing," said Kieschke, who contributed to more than 20 patents.

3M said it balances work between improving products and creating new ones.

Kieschke and others said the company still feels the influence of prior leaders such as James McNerney, a former General Electric executive who served four years as CEO in the early 2000s. McNerney installed "Six Sigma," a regimen used at GE to measure and standardize business practices but loathed by 3M researchers as a creativity killer. [Moi ici: Aqui o anónimo da província não se deixou enganar]

Under Inge Thulin, who held the CEO job from 2012 to 2018, 3M more than doubled its dividend and spent billions on share buybacks. Research spending went up modestly during that period. Even so, Thulin told investors in 2016 that he wanted higher R&D productivity. 3M makes big investments, he said, "we also expect big returns." Neither McNerney nor Thulin could be reached for comment.

...

Such projects have kept talent flowing into 3M, which hires about 40 Ph.D. scientists a year into its corporate labs. Not all of them stay, including Ben Mac Murray, who joined the company in 2018 with a doctorate in materials science and engineering from Cornell University.

He became part of a group working on 3-D printing and was impressed with 3M's capabilities. Yet he felt the pace of product development was too slow. In 2021, he left to work at materials-science company Interfacial, which he said was "quicker in general from idea to product.""

É como uma doença que se apanhou, ao misturar 6 sigma com inovação, e da qual é muito dificil recuperar. Tempo de repensar a melhoria contínua

"A saída do país já não é uma fuga, é uma ambição"

"Os últimos indicadores sinalizam esse aumento da emigração qualificada. É uma 'fuga de cérebros, como no passado?

- Não, o que temos hoje é uma coisa diferente e não vai ter a escala que teve no passado. Há, nas pessoas e nos grupos com que trabalho, um sentimento geral de que esta saída do país já não é uma fuga mas uma ambição, sobretudo dos mais jovens, de criar novos mundos e somar experiências de desenvolvimento profissional, motivados também por programas como o Erasmus que ainda na universidade estimulam esta visão transformadora. Ou seja, já não é a emigração que antes conhecíamos, exclusivamente movida pela necessidade e pela falta de oportunidades no país."

Trecho retirado de ""A saída do país já não é uma fuga, é uma ambição"" publicado no caderno de Economia do semanário Expresso desta semana.

Cortar impostos? Uma heresia!

"The Iowa Governor has made her state a model of good tax policy, and she says she’s only getting started.

Ms. Reynolds said last week that Iowa wrapped up its fiscal year with a surplus of $1.83 billion. That may sound small compared with overgrown blue-state budgets, but it's about 22% of what the Hawkeye State spent in 2023. It's also the third surplus in a row in the Governor's tenure.

These results have followed significant tax cuts that have helped the state's economy. Since revenue surged during the pandemic recovery in 2021, Ms. Reynolds and the GOP Legislature have cut the state's individual income tax rates. The top rate has dropped to 6% from 8.53% since 2022, and it is scheduled to drop to a flat 3.9% rate by 2026.

Iowa's top corporate tax rate next year will drop to 7.1% from 9.8% in 2022, and it is scheduled to fall to 5.5% if the state keeps hitting its revenue targets. For property owners, the Legislature this year capped the annual increase in assessed value, reducing local tax collections by about $100 million.

Ms. Reynolds connected these dots when she announced the budget surplus last week. "We've seen what the powerful combination of growth-oriented policies and fiscal restraint can create," she said in a statement. Income, corporate and franchise-tax receipts rose by about $500 million from 2021 to 2022 after the tax cuts.

Crucially, state spending has grown modestly since 2021, despite annual increases in per pupil school funding. Steady job growth has pushed the state's unemployment rate down to 2.9%. Now the Governor wants to raise her bet on this winning formula. "My goal is to get to zero individual income-tax rate by the end of this second term" in 2027, she said.

...

The Iowa tax experience belies the claims of the left that cutting taxes produces deficits. In Iowa the tax cuts have helped to produce record surpluses that then can be used to cut incometax rates further. Ms. Reynolds has also shown that you can cut rates across the board, even at the top, and succeed politically. The GOP presidential candidates could stand to ask her for a few tax-cutting pointers."

Trechos retirados do WSJ do passado dia 4 em "Iowa's Tax-Cut Triumph".

Todos nascidos do mesmo caldo

Mais uma evidência de que os políticos não são nem mais nem menos do que o povo que pastoreiam. Os políticos são uma emanação do povo. BTW, como disse Joaquim Aguiar esta semana, as pessoas se estivessem no lugar dos ministros do PS faziam o mesmo. Por isso, não se escandalizam.

No FT de ontem li "Chief executives really need to lengthen their attention spans":

"Chief executives like to think they aim high. "Go big or go home" and similar slogans gained currency late in the last century and still capture the imagination today.

Yet many US corporate chiefs have actually prioritised the opposite approach for much of that time: they put more emphasis on hitting near-term earnings targets at the expense of spending on long-term success.

That is almost certainly a mistake. Studies by McKinsey, the CFA Institute and others consistently show that companies that invest less in long-term growth relative to their peers end up underperforming over the medium or long haul. The bonus is largest for companies that continue to invest during difficult periods.

...

Last year, investment time horizons for the world's biggest public companies fell to five years, the shortest since the thinktank FCLT began crunching data in 2009 on what companies do with their earnings.

At the same time, investor time horizons rose slightly to 5.45 years. For the first time since at least the financial crisis, chief executives had shorter attention spans than the shareholders they work for.

...

Instead, corporate time horizons have dropped 25 per cent in a decade, and top executives aren't sticking around to see the results of their choices. Chief executive tenure in the S&P 500 has dropped 20 per cent since 2013, to 4.8 years.

...

Even worse, half of them said they were meeting near-term earnings targets by cutting areas that they considered long-term priorities. "CFOs have to balance protecting value, optimising earnings and long-term growth. When you have uncertain economic conditions they revert to short-term," says EY partner Myles Corson.

Too many corporate pay plans still emphasise current earnings and share prices, say governance experts, and some boards have further weakened the ties to long-term growth by tying pay to fluffy qualitative measures."

Recordo uma conversa onde se discutia quem geria melhor, os gestores do estado ou os gestores das empresas particulares. Num mercado saudável, sem cronyismo, os gestores das empresas particulares são rapidamente punidos, a menos que aleguem Halzheimer, mas os do estado ... essa é a diferença: punição versus mais impostos. 

"Os Anos do Absurdo" (parte II)

 Há dias escrevi sobre o tempo que vivemos e como pode ser apelidado de “Os anos do absurdo”.

Por exemplo, conciliar o querer um novo aeroporto em Lisboa, quando ao mesmo tempo se está contra o consumo de combustíveis fósseis, quando ao mesmo tempo se está contra o excesso de turismo, quando ao mesmo tempo se está contra a gentrificação.

Hoje o JdN traz um conjunto de entrevistas com responsáveis de associações empresariais. Um tema recorrente entre os vários entrevistados, e que é sintoma de mais um absurdo que os jornalistas são incapazes de questionarem, é o tema do sector que “bomba”, do sector que tem falta de trabalhadores, mas ao mesmo tempo não consegue acumular capital.

Não há ninguém que se questione como é que a maioria das empresas num sector económico estão cheias de trabalho e, no entanto, não ganham dinheiro?

Como é que se consegue ser competitivo? 

Pelo preço ou pelo valor. Quando só se consegue ser competitivo pelo preço e não se ganha escala, porque não faz sentido, porque não é possível, o resultado garantido é o empobrecimento. O sucesso comercial não se traduz em sucesso financeiro. Assim, até se podem pagar os custos do passado, mas não se conseguem pagar os custos do futuro. 

Costa disse que a realidade anda mais depressa que a capacidade do governo legislar. Isso fez-me lembrar os ciclos viciosos que se autocatalizam. Já aqui relacionei esta situação com o esquema Ponzi invertido, os clientes actuais são servidos à custa dos clientes futuros, até que deixa de ser possível manter o esquema.

There will be turbulence

"While small changes in technology can fundamentally alter the balance of power, trying to predict exactly how, decades into the future, is incredibly difficult. Exponential technologies amplify everyone and everything. And that creates seemingly contradictory trends. Power is both concentrated and dispersed. Incumbents are both strengthened and weakened. Nation-states are both more fragile and at greater risk of slipping into abuses of unchecked power.

Recall that growing access to power means everyone’s power will be amplified. In the coming decades, historical patterns will play out once again, new centers will form, new infrastructures develop, new forms of governance and social organization emerge. At the same time, existing loci of power will be amplified in unpredictable ways. Sometimes, when one reads about technology, there is a heady sense that it will sweep away all that has come before, that no older businesses or institutions will survive the whirlwind. I don’t think that’s true; some will be swept away, but many will be augmented. Television can broadcast the revolution, but it can also help erase it. Technologies can reinforce social structures, hierarchies, and regimes of control as well as upend them.

In the resulting turbulence, without a major shift in focus, many open democratic states face a steady decay of their institutional foundations, a withering of legitimacy and authority. This is a circular dynamic of technology spreading and power shifting, which undermines the foundations, dents the capacity to rein it in, and so leads to further spread. At the same time, authoritarian states are given a potent new arsenal of repression.

The nation-state will be subject to massive centrifugal and centripetal forces, centralization and fragmentation. It’s a fast track to chaos, calling into question who makes decisions and how; how those decisions are executed, by whom, when, and where, pressurizing those delicate balances and accommodations toward the breaking point. This recipe for turbulence will create epic new concentrations and dispersals of power, splintering the state from above and below. It will ultimately cast doubt on the viability of some nations altogether."

Trecho retirado de "The Coming Wave" de Mustafa Suleyman e Michael Bhaskar.

"The coming wave of contradictions"

Um tema interessante retirado de "The Coming Wave" de Mustafa Suleyman e Michael Bhaskar, "The coming wave of contradictions":

"If centralization and decentralization sound as if they are in direct contradiction, that's with good reason: they are. Understanding the future means handling multiple conflicting trajectories at once. The coming wave launches immense centralizing and decentralizing riptides at the same time. Both will be in play at once. Every individual, every business, every church, every nonprofit, every nation, will eventually have its own AI and ultimately its own bio and robotics capability. From a single individual on their sofa to the world's largest organizations, each AI will aim to achieve the goals of its owner. Herein lies the key to understanding the coming wave of contradictions. a wave full of collisions.

Each new formulation of power will offer a different vision of delivering public goods, or propose a different way to make products or a different set of religious beliefs to evangelize. AI systems already make critical decisions with overt political implications: who receives a loan, a job, a place at college, parole; who gets seen by a senior physician. Within the decade Als will decide how public money gets spent, where military forces are assigned, decentralizing ways. An Al might, for example, operate as one massive, state-spanning system, a single general-purpose utility governing hundreds of millions. Equally we will also have vastly capable systems, available at low cost, open-source, highly adapted, catering to a village.

Multiple ownership structures will exist in tandem: technology democratized in open-source collectives, the products of today's corporate leaders or insurgent blitz-scaling start-ups, and government held, whether through nationalization or in-house nurturing. All will coexist and coevolve, and everywhere they will alter, magnify, produce, and disrupt flows and networks of power.

Where and how the forces play out will vary dramatically according to existing social and political factors. This should not be an oversimplified picture, and there will be numerous points of resistance and adaptation not obvious in advance. Some sectors or regions will go one way, some the other, some will see powerful contortions of both. Some hierarchies and social structures will be reinforced, others overturned; some places may become more equal or authoritarian, others much less so. In all cases, the additional stress and volatility, the unpredictable amplification of power, the wrenching disruption of radical new centers of capability, will further stress the foundation of the liberal democratic nation-state system.

And if this picture sounds too strange, paradoxical, and impossible, consider this. The coming wave will only deepen and recapitulate the exact same contradictory dynamics of the last wave. The internet does precisely this: centralizes in a few key hubs while also empowering billions of people. It creates behemoths and yet gives everyone the opportunity to join in. Social media created a few giants and a million tribes. Everyone can build a website, but there's only one Google. Everyone can sell their own niche products, but there's only one Amazon. And on and on. The disruption of the internet era is largely explained by this tension, this potent, combustible brew of empowerment and control."

"Do not play a strictly dominated strategy"

O JN do passado Sábado trouxe-me duas estórias que me recordaram o tema da pedofilia empresarial.

Primeira estória:

"Empresa criada para fornecer Yazaki protesta contra rescisão

OVAR Uma empresa que diz ter sido criada a pedido da Yazaki Saltano para abastecer em exclusivo essa fabricante de componentes automóveis protestou ontem junto à fábrica de Ovar dessa multinacional, criticando a rescisão "desumana" que obriga a despedimento coletivo. Em causa está a Jorge M. Barros Gomes (JG) que, criada há mais de 20 anos em Oliveira de Azeméis, fica agora sem trabalho para os seus 27 funcionários. A direção da Yazaki Saltano declara que a cessação do contrato com a JG se verificou "de acordo com o que foi estritamente estipulado entre as partes" e que o serviço antes requisitado foi alocado a "serviços internos"."

Segunda estória: 

"CRISE A União das Adegas Cooperativas do Douro (Uniadegas) apelou ao Governo para que crie um mecanismo que valha a estas unidades, num ano em que estão a ser confrontadas com a entrada anormal de uvas. A situação decorre da falta de interesse de muitas empresas produtoras de vinho por terem ainda grandes stocks em armazém. Sem mais onde entregar, os viticultores estão a levar toda a produção para as cooperativas, criando dificuldades de funcionamento e de armazenagem.

Perante a realidade deste ano, Ilídio Santos, presidente da Uniadegas, destaca que as cooperativas estão " cheias de uvas e de solidariedade". Explica que em anos de escassez, "os agricultores costumam aproveitar boas propostas de empresas privadas, vendem algumas quantidades de uvas e só o resto é que vai para a cooperativa. Em anos como este, vai tudo para a adega"." 

Lidamos com adultos ou com crianças? 

Como não recordar:

"Lesson #1: Do not play a strictly dominated strategy meu Deus, tantas empresas que violam esta primeira lição para viverem em sobressalto permanente, em recuo permanente, tempo emprestado. Teimam em desempenhar o papel de formigas num piquenique"

 

A receita irlandesa na Grécia

O New York Times de ontem trazia na capa da secção "Business" o título de um artigo com várias páginas "A New Era of Prosperity for Greece - The local economy is booming, but memories of crises and austerity measures have not faded."

Eu há anos que suspeito que a Grécia é o país do Sul da Europa menos mal governado. No entanto, ao olhar para este título não pude deixar de sentir uns sinais de cinismo. Aposto que outros olham para os números da macroeconomia portuguesa e acham que o país está muito bem, mas depois os que por cá vivem e não podem fazer by-pass ao estado, apanham com o deslaçamento desse mesmo estado com um SNS, uma educação, uma justiça, ... que não funcionam.

Depois da leitura do artigo fiquei um pouco mais optimista acerca do futuro da Grécia. Porquê? Por causa da receita irlandesa. Recordar Números preocupantes.

"The economy is growing at twice the eurozone average, and unemployment, while still high at 11 percent, is the lowest in over a decade. Tourists have returned in droves, fueling a construction frenzy and new jobs. Multinational companies, like Microsoft and Pfizer, are investing.

...

Investors are jumping in. Microsoft is building a €1 billion data center east of Athens. Farther north, Pfizer is anchoring a €650 million research hub. American, Chinese and European companies are pitching renewable-energy deals. And investments by Cisco, JPMorgan, Meta and other multinationals are projected to have an impact worth billions of euros over the next few years."

BTW, os salários dos funcionários públicos vão subir pela primeira vez desde o corte de 20% aquando do "PEC IV".

Outra vez o Karma

Há uma semana escrevi sobre o Karma.

Ontem no FT, "Non-European companies need not fear carbon border tax":

"The EU has long been at the forefront of global efforts to fight climate change. In particular, we have been pioneers when it comes to carbon pricing: the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) has been operating for close to two decades. This Sunday, we will begin to implement another groundbreaking measure that will over time extend the same pricing principles to all carbon-intensive products sold on the EU market, wherever in the world they originate.

...

The EU is introducing CBAM in a gradual manner. For a transitional phase running until the end of 2025, EU importers of CBAM goods - steel, iron, aluminium, cement, hydrogen, fertilisers and electricity - from non-EU countries will only need to provide data on the carbon intensity of their products.

EU measures aim to encourage industry globally to embrace greener technologies

Then, starting in 2026, companies will begin buying and surrendering BAM certificates based on the carbon footprint of their imports. Payments under BAM will be phased in over a decade until 2035."

A EU exporta mais do que importa. O que impede outros países e blocos económicos de criarem mecanismos de "retaliação"? Uma UE envelhecida precisa de exportar, mais do que importar.

Lembro-me, por exemplo, das campanhas do calçado para exportar para os Estados Unidos ou para a Coreia do Sul.

"Os Anos do Absurdo"

Um dia os historiadores vão olhar para estes tempos e apelidá-los não de "Roaring Twenties" mas de "Os Anos do Absurdo".

Enquanto o partido no poder se entretém com "Francisco César: "Um bom resultado orçamental não é um excedente orçamental".

Na capa do FT de hoje pode ler-se:

"Italian 10-year government bond yields rose as much as 0.17 percentage points to 4.96 per cent, their highest in a decade, after Italian prime minister Giorgia Meloni's government raised its fiscal deficit targets and cut growth forecast for this year and next. The yield later fell back to 4.88 per cent."

E também, "German 10-year bond yield hits 12-year high as prices slump".

Na segunda-feira fui a Bragança em trabalho. Como tinha um problema de tempo tive de ir de carro, ao contrário da habitual camioneta. Por curiosidade, no Domingo à noite fui ás páginas da FlixBus e da Rede Expresso ver se podia comprar bilhete para a camioneta das 6h00. Para meu espanto, ambas as viagens estavam esgotadas. Há um ano apenas, chegava aquela rua antiga nas traseiras da Praça D. João I no Porto, e comprava o bilhete na hora sem problemas.

Ao almoço em Bragança, contei esta estória, como exemplo das mudanças subterrâneas que estão em curso no Portugal de hoje e que não aparecem na espuma das notícias dos dias que correm.

Portanto, a preocupação dos alucinados que tomam conta do asilo é que a consequência do saque fiscal seja um superavit, enquanto o custo do dinheiro está a ir por aí acima.

Agradeço ao Camilo Lourenço ter-me alertado para a evolução do custo do dinheiro para os alemães.

Curiosidade do dia

 

A dolorosa transição ao vivo e a cores

O FT de ontem trazia um delicioso artigo sobre a mudança no Japão, e a falta dela no nosso país, "Japan chip plant sends 'shock' through economy".

O artigo refere o impacte da instalação de uma fábrica de chips da Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company numa região longe das grandes metrópoles, na ilha de Kikuyo nos arrabaldes da prefeitura de Kumamoto.

E a pensar no que aqui costumo escrever sobre a necessidade de investimento directo estrangeiro para nos ajudar a dar saltos de produtividade e romper com redes de compadrio:

"The changes in Kumamoto also offer a microcosm of the broader challenges for Asia's most advanced economy after a long period of stagnant growth and employee wages. From a severe labour shortage to infrastructure constraints, TSMC's arrival is forcing Japan to confront problems that have been simmering for years.

"We call it the TSMC shock, but I think this is a huge opportunity to change the structure of Japanese society and economy," said Kazufumi Onishi, mayor of the city of Kumamoto. "To put it another way, we need this kind of shock to change.""

Agora o impacte nos salários, no emprego (o efeito Flying Geese):

"TSMC posted job adverts in the spring for engineers, offering monthly wages roughly a third higher than the average for college graduates at local manufacturing companies. Its plant in Kumamoto is expected to create 1,700 high-tech professional jobs.

TSMC said salaries were benchmarked against those at similar technology companies to be competitive, adding that it was confident Japan would provide "outstanding recruits". 

...

But for local businesses, the sudden boost in wages sparked by TSMC has accelerated a trend for younger employees to switch jobs more frequently to seek higher pay and better working conditions amid a shortage of workers. [Moi ici: Quem diria... *alerta de ironia]

Minimum wages in Kumamoto are among the lowest in Japan, and about 40 per cent of its high school graduates seek jobs elsewhere.[Moi ici: Onde é que nós estamos habituados a ver isto na Europa?]

Kongo, a Kumamoto-based manufacturer of storage systems, has lost about 5 per cent of its 300 workers over the past year, some to TSMC and other semiconductor-related companies.

"It's easy to blame TSMC when our employees change jobs," said Toshihiko Tanaka, chief executive of Kongo, who is also chair of the Kumamoto Industrial Federation. "But the movement of employees is an inevitable trend and we need to change our mindset to focus on how we can raise the performance of each individual as our workforce shrinks.""[Moi ici: Se fosse por cá estaria a ouvir um pedido de apoio qualquer, afinal estamos no país do Chapeleiro Louco. Este choque para as empresas incumbentes é a tal dolorosa transição que tem de ocorrer para se passar ao nível seguinte da produtividade]

" inherently unpredictable, exceptionally open, and growing fast"

A propósito dos que concordam que os governos assumam os custos da inovação tecnológica à custa do saque fiscal:

"Even in hardware the path toward AI was impossible to predict. GPUs—graphics processing units—are a foundational part of modern AI. But they were first developed to deliver ever more realistic graphics in computer games. In an illustration of the omni-use nature of technology, fast parallel processing for flashy graphics turned out to be perfect for training deep neural networks. It’s ultimately luck that demand for photorealistic gaming meant companies like NVIDIA invested so much into making better hardware, and that this then adapted so well to machine learning. (NVIDIA wasn’t complaining; its share price rose 1,000 percent in the five years after AlexNet.)

If you were looking to monitor and direct AI research in the past, you would likely have got it wrong, blocking or boosting work that eventually proved irrelevant, entirely missing the most important breakthroughs quietly brewing on the sidelines. Science and technology research is inherently unpredictable, exceptionally open, and growing fast. Governing or controlling it is therefore immensely difficult."

Trecho retirado de "The Coming Wave" de Mustafa Suleyman e Michael Bhaskar.

Vantagem competitiva, capital intelectual externo e Mongo

Ontem, aproveitando uma viagem de ida e volta a Bragança iniciei a escuta do livro "The Coming Wave" de Mustafa Suleyman e Michael Bhaskar.

A certa altura, já no regresso fixei este trecho tão ao jeito de Mongo:

“The field of systems biology aims to understand the “larger picture” of a cell, tissue, or organism by using bioinformatics and computational biology to see how the organism works holistically; such efforts could be the foundation for a new era of personalized medicine. Before long the idea of being treated in a generic way will seem positively medieval; everything, from the kind of care we receive to the medicines we are offered, will be precisely tailored to our DNA and specific biomarkers. Eventually, it might be possible to reconfigure ourselves to enhance our immune responses. That, in turn, might open the door to even more ambitious experimentation like longevity and regenerative technologies, already a burgeoning area of research.” 

Ao ouvir isto pensei logo no que pode tornar obsoleta a indústria farmacêutica tal como a conhecemos. E foi então que a imagem de Roger Martin, "For me, the metaphor for competitive advantage is a long row of rooms. In this conception, every company, at any given point in time, exists in a room of its own making", publicada ontem no blogue me assaltou. Quando aqui escrevo sobre a importância do investimento directo estrangeiro, estou na verdade a abordar a possibilidade de capital intelectual vindo de fora permitir unidades de negócio que dão saltos na sequência da "row of rooms"

O que é uma vantagem competitiva?

"For me, the metaphor for competitive advantage is a long row of rooms. In this conception, every company, at any given point in time, exists in a room of its own making. The room is defined by the set of questions on which the company is working — and that set of questions is, in turn, defined by what the company understands about the market in which it competes. It understands things about the customers it serves, the technologies it uses, the competitors it faces, the industry in which it operates, etc. That causes it to work on projects and initiatives about which it currently knows. It competes on bases that it knows. It can’t work on things about which it doesn’t know because it can’t pose questions about things it doesn’t realize exist.


But in due course, working diligently on those questions in that room will bring about insights which will allow the company to move through a thick curtain to the next room. In that new room, it has access to questions that only became obvious to the company after it has contemplated and answered the previous questions. There is no other way into that room but through the curtain.

...

It is not easy. You can’t get into the next room just because you want to be there. You have to be thorough and conceptual about your business. You have to answer the questions in your room to get clues about the nature of the questions in the next. That means being endlessly curious about your business — the customers, the technologies, the anomalies, the outliers. Have urgency because it is competitive life or death. If competitors get into the next room before you do, it can be deadly. 

...

Be very deliberate about the questions you ask about your business. Invest heavily in the activity. Never just do. Do and reflect. Ask yourself, how can I ask more sophisticated questions about my business?

...

The goal is to acquire clues as to what is the next set of questions, because when you figure out what those questions are, you can slip through the curtains to the next room. And as long as you are in that room, you have a monumentally valuable lead in the ability to answer the next questions, and get through the next curtains, and so on. If you see any competitor appearing to ask questions that you are not yet asking, that is your signal that you better start understanding those questions because it is a threat to your survival. If they get to operate in the next room before you, it could be all over.

Always think about advantage as ever-evolving. It isn’t a moat. If you think it is, you won’t focus enough on the next room. And the advantage of always being in the next room is truly powerful — a truly renewable resource that is well worth pursuing."

Excelente reflexão de Roger Martin acerca do que é a vantagem competitiva em "What Strategy Questions are You Asking?" 

Bêábá da produtividade sob o prisma de um árbitro estrangeiro

Esta semana no WSJ um artigo com o bêábá da produtividade, mas que seria útil ser distribuído por muita gente neste país.

"Pay is ultimately tied to productivity: the quantity and quality of products a company’s workforce churns out. And here, American manufacturing companies and workers are in trouble. The issue isn’t with labor-intensive products such as clothing and furniture, which largely moved offshore long ago. Rather, it’s in the most advanced products: electric cars and batteries, power-generation equipment, commercial aircraft and semiconductors.

...

Yes, American companies still lead the world in design and innovation, but the resulting products increasingly are made abroad, especially in Asia. Biden, like former President Donald Trump before him, wants to reverse this, through tariffs, subsidies and other government interventions. Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and especially China certainly intervened plenty to help their manufacturers. 

But attributing manufacturing performance to government policies alone is dangerous; it underplays how far Asian manufacturers have come in cost and quality and how far their American counterparts have slipped.

...

To say American workers aren’t productive enough isn’t to say it’s their fault; after all, productivity depends on a multitude of factors beyond the workers, including management decisions, the supply chain, public infrastructure and regulation.

...

Warehouses and hospitals can pass the cost of higher wages and reduced hours to customers without being undercut by foreign competitors. Manufacturers don’t have that luxury. That’s why Detroit is recoiling at the UAW’s demands. While their output per employee is among the highest of 11 global manufacturers ranked by consultants AlixPartners, so are their costs per vehicle. The lowest cost: China’s. 

Labor presents problems other than just cost, such as the shortage of skilled workers. “They find desirable candidates, they hire them, they train them, they don’t retain them,” said Jim Schmidt, an automotive expert at consultants Oliver Wyman. “A lot of the younger workforce doesn’t want to do that type of work.” For some, absenteeism is another problem."

Trechos retirados de "American Labor’s Real Problem: It Isn’t Productive Enough" 

Cuidado com o karma...

Já por várias vezes escrevi aqui no blogue sobre o perigo que vejo na aposta da redução das importações. Recordo: Acerca de custos de oportunidade.

Já agora, também recordo o perigo do karma, quando esquecemos de calçar os sapatos dos outros: Karma is a bitch!!! Ou os jogadores de bilhar amador no poder!

Ontem encontrei "Portugal Sou Eu assume “forcing especial” para substituir importações na indústria" e sublinhei:

"Além dos consumidores, que foram o foco nos primeiros anos, também quer sensibilizar as empresas para a escolha de produtos e serviços portugueses no seu consumo de bens intermédios, pois “o que tem acontecido é que aumentam as exportações, mas aumentam proporcionalmente as importações de matérias-primas e bens intermédios”. “Neste momento, o programa está a fazer um forcing especial junto das empresas, associando-se ao grande desafio ambiental de dissociar o crescimento económico do maior consumo de recursos”, adianta o presidente da AEP.

E sendo a indústria transformadora, que é precisamente a que tem maior representatividade no Portugal Sou Eu, um dos setores com elevada incorporação de consumo de bens intermédios, acrescenta Luís Miguel Ribeiro, eleito em junho para um novo mandato à frente da associação patronal nortenha, “existe aqui um elevado potencial para a promoção da economia circular, a redução das importações e, por consequência, uma melhoria do saldo externo do país e o aumento do PIB” nacional."

Queremos aumentar as exportações e reduzir as importações... por que é que os outros países não hão-de querer fazer o mesmo? Cuidado com o karma... 

Falta a parte dolorosa da transição (Parte V)

Li no JN há dias "Indústrias estratégicas com 90 milhões para formação" e revirei os olhos com a classificação "indústrias estratégicas".

O que são indústrias estratégicas? Estratégicas para quem e estratégicas porquê?

Olho para o esquema clássico dos Flying Geese:

E penso no Japão dos anos 50 a olhar para o sector têxtil como estratégico, ou dos anos 60 a olhar para a metalurgia de base como estratégico e assim por diante.

O WSJ há dias trazia este gráfico:

Como é que Taiwan conseguiu este desempenho? A proteger os incumbentes? Nope!

"According to Taiwan’s Economic Development Performance issued by the National Development Council (NDC) in 2016, the country’s economic development stage is from agriculture to light industry and then heavy industry to high-tech industry. Similarly, factor input also goes from labor to capital, and through knowledge inputs and technology innovation, Taiwan has gradually become a developed country." (Fonte)

Eu sei que este tipo de conversa é tabu em Portugal, e não só. Eu sei que quando escrevo sobre estes temas perco potenciais clientes nestes sectores "estratégicos". Não percebem a diferença entre o Carlos consultor e o Carlos cidadão.

Recordo a série: Falta a parte dolorosa da transição (Parte IV).

Por um lado, no JN lê-se:

"Pedro Cilínio falava aos jornalistas à margem da visita aos 36 expositores de calçado presentes na Micam, em Milão, assegurando que a medida pretende evitar despedimentos, mas também ajudar as empresas a preservarem a sua competitividade e capacidade produtiva."

Por outro lado, falamos em falta de mão de obra para empresas em sectores mais produtivos. Recordo de há dias no FT  "Why don't they just leave then?".

Hoje no JdN, Cristina Casalinho escreve:

"Na sua analise recente da economia portuguesa, a OCDE voltou a referir a evolução da produtividade do trabalho como uma debilidade e obstáculo a crescimentos mais pujantes. A melhoria da qualificação da força de trabalho operada nas últimas décadas deverá promover progressos nesta vertente. [Moi ici: A sério?! Licenciados a produzir melhores ou mais enxadas vão promover o progresso da produtividade do trabalho? Come one. Já leram algum colunista, ou algum comentador nos media tradicionais com coragem para dizer que sem morte das empresas actuais não chegamos lá?] Porém, o efeito do legado ainda é relevante. Remetendo novamente para o relatório da OCDE de junho passado, relevam as baixas qualificações das equipas de gestão nacionais, sendo que 25% das pessoas com responsabilidades de gestão não possuem educação secundária concluída. [Moi ici: E qual a implicação disto? Vão para a universidade? E a universidade tem formadores e cursos preparados para este nível de executivos? Haverá sempre, certamente, um ou outro com vontade de crescer pessoalmente nesta vertente, mas a maioria não quer, nem tem tempo. E são eles que trabalham o numerador da equação da produtividade. Melhor deixar Darwin trabalhar] Certamente que esta realidade reflete o domínio das pequenas e micro empresas no tecido empresarial. Baixas qualificações, acesso a capital limitado e reduzida dimensão [Moi ici: Acham que a fusão de 3 têxteis gera uma empresa mais produtiva mesmo? Perguntem aos japoneses dos anos 50] integram um círculo vicioso que importa quebrar para se almejar maior produtividade, investimento e crescimento."