Mongo e magia (parte VI)

Parte I , parte II, parte III, parte IV e parte V.

“People are highly contradictory....Our very perception of the world is affected by context, which is why the rational attempt to contrive universal, context-free laws for human behaviour may be largely doomed.
...
Economic exchanges are heavily affected by context and attempts to shoehorn human behaviour into a single, one-size-fits-all straitjacket are flawed from the outset – they are driven by our dangerous love of certainty: However, this can only come from theory, which by its very universal nature doesn’t take context into account.
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I hope it will free you slightly from the modern rationalist straitjacket, and help you understand that many problems might be solved if we abandoned the rationalist obsession with universal, context-free laws. Once free of this constraint, you might have the freedom to generate magical ideas, some of which may be silly but of which others will be invaluable."

Trechos retirados de "Alchemy: Or, the Art and Science of Conceiving Effective Ideas That Logical People Will Hate" de Rory Sutherland.

Curiosidade do dia

A propósito de "Défice externo salta para 2,5% do PIB no primeiro trimestre":

"Segundo os dados publicados esta terça-feira pelo Banco de Portugal, o saldo conjunto das balanças corrente e de capital fixou-se em -1.231 milhões de euros, o que compara com -78 milhões de euros em igual período de 2018."

Juntar a "Endividamento da economia sobe para 356,8% do PIB no primeiro trimestre"

Mongo e magia (parte V)

Parte I , parte II, parte III e parte IV.

“it is perfectly possible to be both rational and wrong.
Logical ideas often fail because logic demands universally applicable laws but humans, unlike atoms, are not consistent enough in their behaviour for such laws to hold very broadly.
...
The drive to be rational has led people to seek political and economic laws that are akin to the laws of physics – universally true and applicable. The caste of rational decision makers requires generalisable laws to allow them confidently to pronounce on matters without needing to consider the specifics of the situation. And in reality ‘context’ is often the most important thing in determining how people think, behave and act: this simple fact dooms many universal models from the start. Because in order to form universal laws, naïve rationalists have to pretend that context doesn’t matter.
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Logic requires that people find universal laws, but outside of scientific fields, there are fewer of these than we might expect. And once human psychology has a role to play, it is perfectly possible for behaviour to become entirely contradictory.
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While in physics the opposite of a good idea is generally a bad idea, in psychology the opposite of a good idea can be a very good idea indeed: both opposites often work."

Um tema que abordo há anos quando recordo os que pensam que a economia é como a física newtoniana ou galilaica. Um tema que também abordo quando recordo que o preço é contextual



Trechos retirados de "Alchemy: Or, the Art and Science of Conceiving Effective Ideas That Logical People Will Hate" de Rory Sutherland.

Outro regresso

Depois do regresso do vinil, da cassete, das livrarias, das ... eis o regresso dos catálogos em papel, "How to Use Catalogues in a Digital Age".

"For decades, retailers used catalogues — often hundreds of pages thick — to showcase their inventory and sell products via mail or telephone orders.
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But with the rise of e-commerce, catalogues fell out of favour.
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Marketers say they’ve started to see a rebound in the last couple years, mainly from online brands, which now fill the mailboxes of their millennial consumers. They see mailings as a low-cost alternative to advertising on search engines and social media, where costs have risen as more companies look for new customers online. Today’s iteration of catalogues are slimmer and less product-driven. Consumers are encouraged to purchase items online, often with a special discount code in the catalogue.
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“I think digital communications are starting to overwhelm people, and a well-designed piece of print advertisement can be an unexpected touchpoint,”
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Unlike the dense catalogues of the past, mailers today are shorter because there’s no longer a need to feature every single product a brand carries when the online shop is at a consumer’s fingertips.
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Many catalogues now look more like magazines, and some brands produce editorial content."

"not because you figured out how to spend money to interrupt more and more strangers"

"If you can figure out how to embrace the true fans, they’ll go ahead and spread an idea–not because you want them to, but because they want to.
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Your ability to reach a tiny group of committed fans is essential. But the work spreads because of the fans, not because you figured out how to spend money to interrupt more and more strangers."

E em Mongo isto vai ser cada vez mais verdade.

Trecho retirado de "It’s all horizontal (and books went first)"

Nichos

Trabalhar para nichos:

• Ex-trabalhadora da Salsa calça mulheres com pés grandes
• Lavoro apresenta bota nova para o exército

"Never quote a price before..."

"So, when it comes to pricing, here's the most essential rule--the pricing rule that always produces both the most sales and the most profit:
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Never quote a price before the customer fully understands the benefit of buying.
...
"The specific price varies depending on exactly what you order, how you pay for it, and so forth. I'm sure we can make an arrangement that will work for both of us, but in similar situations, companies like yours spend in the range of [low price] to [high price.]"
...
The client goes "Whoa! That's way more than we can afford!" You win, because now you know this isn't a prospective client, so you can end the conversation without wasting more of your valuable time.
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Or the client nods and says something like, "Why such a large difference in price?" You continue with "it depends on exactly what you want to accomplish..." and segue back to talking about the benefits."

Trechos retirados de "The Single Most Essential Rule About Pricing"

Sinais de Mongo por todo o lado

Sinais de Mongo por todo o lado.

Desta feita a explosão de marcas, a ascensão das marcas das empresas pequenas, o triunfo do numerador sobre o denominador.

"The fast-moving-consumer-goods industry has a long history of generating reliable growth through mass brands. But the model that fueled industry success now faces great pressure as consumer behaviors shift and the channel landscape changes. To win in the coming decades, FMCGs need to reduce their reliance on mass brands and offline mass channels and embrace an agile operating model focused on brand relevance rather than synergies.
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Consumers under 35 differ fundamentally from older generations in ways that make mass brands and channels ill suited to them. They tend to prefer new brands, especially in food products. According to recent McKinsey research, millennials are almost four times more likely than baby boomers to avoid buying products from “the big food companies.”
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And while millennials are obsessed with research, they resist brand-owned marketing and look instead to learn about brands from each other. They also tend to believe that newer brands are better or more innovative, and they prefer not to shop in mass channels.
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Explosion of small brandsMany small consumer-goods companies are capitalizing on millennial preferences and digital marketing to grow very fast. These brands can be hard to spot because they are often sold online or in channels not covered by the syndicated data that the industry has historically relied on heavily.
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Retailers have also taken notice of these small brands. According to The Nielsen Company, US retailers are giving small brands double their fair share of new listings. The reason is twofold: retailers want small brands to differentiate their proposition and to drive their margins, as these small brands tend to be premium and rarely promote. As a consequence, small brands are capturing two to three times their fair share of growth while the largest brands remain flat or in slight decline"

Trechos retirados de "The new model for consumer goods"

Curiosidade do dia

A caminho da Sildávia.

Acerca da comunicação

Comunicação objectiva?

Não, isso não existe, ponto!

Imagem retirada daqui.

A tradição do linho para o século XXI

Muitas vezes recordo aqui no blogue a artesã de Bragança:

"Ontem, em casa dos meus sogros vi uma boa hora da programação do Porto Canal. Numa reportagem sobre as inúmeras feiras que nesta altura se realizam em todo o Norte do país, a certa altura, numa feira transmontana, uma artesã dizia que não havia mercado para as suas colchas de linho... talvez haja, se calhar, deixou foi de frequentar estes espaços.
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Talvez precisasse de frequentar outras feiras, noutros países, talvez precisasse de divulgar os seus produtos na internet, talvez precisasse de aproveitar os meses de Verão para expor os seus produtos nas lotadas quintas de turismo rural que se multiplicam desde a Beira-Alta até Trás-os-Montes."

Este artigo, "O linho de Ribeira de Pena, a inovação e a projeção com a mala de Louboutin", vai ao seu encontro:

"Tecedeiras de Cerva conciliam a tradição do linho com a inovação de peças e acreditam que a participação na nova mala do designer Christian Louboutin vai ajudar a projetar esta arte ancestral de Ribeira de Pena.
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Além da mala do designer francês, Fernanda Machado destacou a produção de toalhas de praia em linho que estão a exportar para os Estados Unidos da América (EUA) e também os tecidos que estão já a preparar para o desfile de moda que irá abrir a Feira do Linho de Ribeira de Pena, que se realiza no primeiro fim de semana de agosto."

Pena que não haja um Portugal 2020 para apoiar um projecto de internacionalização desta realidade.

Mongo e magia (parte IV)

Parte I , parte II e parte III.

Há anos que falo da tríade e do seu foco no eficientismo, os encalhados.

“In theory, you can’t be too logical, but in practice, you can. Yet we never seem to believe that it is possible for logical solutions to fail. After all, if it makes sense, how can it possibly be wrong?
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Highly educated people don’t merely use logic; it is part of their identity. When I told one economist that you can often increase the sales of a product by increasing its price, the reaction was one not of curiosity but of anger.
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This book is not an attack on the many healthy uses of logic or reason, but it is an attack on a dangerous kind of logical overreach, which demands that every solution should have a convincing rationale before it can even be considered or attempted.
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We could never have evolved to be rational – it makes you weak.
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A rational leader suggests changing course to avoid a storm. An irrational one can change the weather.
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If you are wholly predictable, people learn to hack you."

Por que é que tantos académicos e comentadores previram o fim das PMEs? (recordar aqui e aqui, por exemplo) Porque o enquadramento lógico, o seu modelo ambiental, impedi-os de ver, ou de suspeitar que existiam alternativas. Quem as descobriu? Os livres de modelos mentais castradores (recordar aqui), os ignorantes e a sua vantagem (recordar aqui).

“Evolution, too, is a haphazard process that discovers what can survive in a world where some things are predictable but others aren’t. It works because each gene reaps the rewards and costs from its lucky or unlucky mistakes, but it doesn’t care a damn about reasons. It isn’t necessary for anything to make sense: if it works it survives and proliferates; if it doesn’t, it diminishes and dies. It doesn’t need to know why it works – it just needs to work.”

Trecho retirado de "Alchemy: Or, the Art and Science of Conceiving Effective Ideas That Logical People Will Hate" de Rory Sutherland.

"meaning cannot simply be discovered"

"People often need to act and make decisions in situations in which causality is poorly understood, where there is considerable uncertainty and people hold different beliefs and have personal biases. However, people very reluctantly acknowledge that they face ambiguity at work. Problems in organizations tend to get labeled as lack of information. It feels more professional to try to solve a knowledge management problem that is called lack of information than a problem that is called confusion.
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The challenge is that managers often treat the existence of multiple views as a symptom of a weakness rather that as an accurate and needed barometer of uncertainty.
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The reality is not an objective set of arrangements outside us, but is continually constructed in daily interaction.
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Because any information can mean a variety of things, meaning cannot simply be discovered. Information does not help. We have to talk!...
situations are progressively clarified in iterative interaction. Our reality is an ongoing accomplishment that takes form when people together make sense of the situations in which they find themselves"

Trechos retirados de "Confusion and ambiguity"

Uma evolução interessante

Uma evolução interessante, uma aprendizagem mais rápida que a dos produtores de leite:

• Agora, Maio de 2019 - Pescadores só voltam a apanhar sardinha portuguesa a partir de 3 de junho
• Outubro de 2015 - Gente inteligente sabe fazer render o peixe
• Agosto de 2015, a minha sugestão - A propósito das quotas da sardinha

Mongo e magia (parte III)

Parte I e parte II.

"It’s true that logic is usually the best way to succeed in an argument, but if you want to succeed in life it is not necessarily all that useful; entrepreneurs are disproportionately valuable precisely because they are not confined to doing only those things that make sense to a committee.
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When you demand logic, you pay a hidden price: you destroy magic. And the modern world, oversupplied as it is with economists, technocrats, managers, analysts, spreadsheet-tweakers and algorithm designers, is becoming a more and more difficult place to practise magic – or even to experiment with it.
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The human mind does not run on logic any more than a horse runs on petrol....
if we allow the world to be run by logical people, we will only discover logical things. But in real life, most things aren’t logical – they are psycho-logical.
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Similarly, if you expose every one of the world’s problems to ostensibly logical solutions, those that can easily be solved by logic will rapidly disappear, and all that will be left are the ones that are logic-proof – those where, for whatever reason, the logical answer does not work.
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More data leads to better decisions. Except when it doesn’t.
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The need to rely on data can also blind you to important facts that lie outside your model."

Trecho retirado de "Alchemy: Or, the Art and Science of Conceiving Effective Ideas That Logical People Will Hate" de Rory Sutherland.

Curiosidade do dia

Da próxima vez que ouvir falar em convergência com a zona euro recorde dois gráficos:

Este, retirado de "EU economies have converged since last elections".

E este outro:

Retirado de "PIB português sobe acima da média europeia, mas há 13 países a crescer mais".

A vida é um eterno retorno

Volta e meia recordo aqui no blogue uma canção dos anos 60 com o refrão "turn, turn, turn". Por exemplo,  Tudo tem o seu tempo, tudo muda.

Podemos contar o tempo como algo linear, mas a vida é um eterno retorno. O que é verdade hoje, amanhã é mentira e, depois, volta a ser verdade.

A economia é uma continuação da biologia. Na economia vemos empresas fecharem ou evoluírem quando o contexto muda, tendo de alterar proposta de valor e estratégia. Na biologia é o mesmo "Extinct bird resurrected as evolution starts over again".

Mongo e magia (parte II)

Parte I.

“There is a simple premise to this book: that while the modern world often turns its back on this kind of illogic, it is at times uniquely powerful. Alongside the inarguably valuable products of science and logic, there are also hundreds of seemingly irrational solutions to human problems just waiting to be discovered, if only we dare to abandon standard-issue, naïve logic in the search for answers.
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Engineering doesn’t allow for magic. Psychology does.
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In our addiction to naïve logic, we have created a magic-free world of neat economic models, business case studies and narrow technological ideas, which together give us a wonderfully reassuring sense of mastery over a complex world. Often these models are useful, but sometimes they are inaccurate or misleading. And occasionally they are highly dangerous.
We should never forget that our need for logic and certainty brings costs as well as benefits. The need to appear scientific in our methodology may prevent us from considering other, less logical and more magical solutions, which can be cheap, fast-acting and effective. The mythical ‘butterfly effect’ does exist, but we don’t spend enough time butterfly hunting.”

Para quem conhece este blogue e consegue recordar o conceito de tríade, um marcador que nasceu em Outubro de 2011 e que foi referido pela primeira vez no texto:

"Podemos começar a listar os académicos, paineleiros e políticos portugueses (a tríade) que não conhecem alternativa ao preço mais baixo e aos salários baixos)"

Para quem conhece este blogue e consegue recordar o conceito de Muggles, gente que não conhece a magia, "Temer o pior sempre que os Muggles se metem". Marcador nascido em Julho de 2011.


Trecho retirado de "Alchemy: Or, the Art and Science of Conceiving Effective Ideas That Logical People Will Hate" de Rory Sutherland.

Curiosidade do dia

"E quando, aos 30 anos, deixam de ter a maminha da mamã, habituaram-se de tal maneira à maminha, que são já um caso perdido para o liberalismo. Agora, querem a maminha do Estado.
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Portugal é uma sociedade híper-protegida onde as pessoas se fazem à vida muito tarde, se é que alguma vez se fazem. São, literalmente, pessoas muito mimadas quando comparadas com as gentes do norte da Europa, onde o liberalismo nasceu (o liberalismo é a doutrina política que emergiu do protestantismo calvinista).
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É muito difícil fazer uma sociedade liberal com esta matéria-prima. Mas não se perde nada em tentar."

Trecho retirado de "a maminha da mamã"

"acha que uma PME consegue?"

Nem as empresas com dinheiro e protecção governamental se safam quando não estão focadas, quando escolheram ser tudo para todos e estar em todo o lado.

Isto a propósito de "Air France plans to cut almost 500 jobs on ‘fierce’ competition":

"Air France blamed increased competition from high speed rail and low-cost airlines as it announced 500 job cuts and said it would downsize its short haul operations.
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The airline said on Monday it would implement 465 voluntary redundancies over the next year. It also announced plans to cut its domestic network capacity by 15 per cent by 2021.
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The move comes as the carrier, part of the Air France-KLM group, looks to deal with “extremely fierce competition” in the sector."

Se empresas com dinheiro e consultores pagos a peso de ouro não conseguem, acha que uma PME consegue?

Quem são os clientes-alvo? Qual a proposta de valor?