A "culpa" nunca é só de uma das partes.

A "culpa" nunca é só de uma das partes.

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"Um milhão de pares por exportar":

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"O empresário recusa que os baixos salários sejam justificação. "Há dez anos era ainda mais pequeno e havia menos absentismo". Chegou a fazer uma experiência, não trabalhar sexta-feira à tarde, para que as pessoas tivessem tempo livre. "Resultou durante algum tempo, mas depois voltou tudo à mesma", disse."

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E a empresa, não cresceu? E, por isso, a atmosfera e/ou a cultura não se alterou?

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O que tem feito para conquistar a mente das pessoas? Continua a saber o nome das pessoas? Contínua a saber que têm um filho, que está no 6º ano de escolaridade?

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As pessoas saem da escola de hoje (e da família de hoje) com um desprezo natural pela disciplina e pelo esforço, o que tem feito para canalizar a energia das pessoas sem o recurso ao chicote ou à cenoura?

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Não passam de postas de pescada que aqui lanço, mas julgo que de nada serve diabolizar uma parte ou outra.

Abandono e ruína

É verdade, são as estradas minhotas, Vizela foi a que mais me impressionou, recentemente foi no trajecto de comboio entre Aveiro e Coimbra que fiquei perturbado com tanto abandono e ruína.

A escola do futuro

"1. Most colleges are organized to give an average education to average students.
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Pick up any college brochure or catalog. Delete the brand names and the map. Can you tell which school it is? ... They are mass marketers.
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Stop for a second and consider the impact of that choice. By emphasizing mass and sameness and rankings, colleges have changed their mission."

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Por todo o lado os sintomas, os sinais de instituições que precisam de ser mudadas, que já estão dessintonizadas do tempo que vamos viver.

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"Type 1. You can take a class where you learn technique, facts and procedures.

Type 2. You can take a class where you learn to see, learn to lead and learn to solve interesting problems.

The first type of teaching isn't particularly difficult to do, and it's something most of us are trained to absorb. The first type of schooling can even be accomplished with self-discipline and a Dummies book. The first type of class is important but not scarce.

The second kind, on the other hand, is where all real success comes from. It's really tricky to find and train people to do this sort of teaching, and anytime you can find some of it, you should grab it."

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(Moi ici: Basta olhar para um daqueles cadernos que o semanário Expresso traz sobre o ensino superior, por exemplo neste fim-de-semana que passou. Se alguém pegasse nos licenciados em Engenharia Química formados pela FEUP, desde 1987 até 2007, e lhes perguntassem que fracção do que aprenderam na universidade usam no dia-a-dia... teriam uma surpresa...)

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Recortes de textos de Seth Godin e aqui também.

Ludibriar os incumbentes...

Na noite de Sábado para Domingo, vi o filme "O Patriota com Mel Gibson.

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As cenas das batalhas, fizeram-me recordar este postal "Martelar modelos "hard" para explicar a realidade".

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Combater no terreno e segundo as regras que dão vantagem aos incumbentes é ser ingénuo, trouxa e carne para canhão.

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Quando Benjamin Martin entra em cena com as tácticas de guerrilha, aproveita a rapidez, a flexibilidade e novas regras.

Falta de concentração estratégica

Há dias, ao visitar uma loja da marca Quebramar, deparei com uns polos em malha piquet(?) usados pela equipa espanhola na America's Cup. Estavam repletos de bordados com os nomes das empresas patrocinadoras, entre eles estava o da Marsans.

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Ontem, num hipermercado Jumbo na cidade do Porto, constatei que a Marsans era a empresa que tinha uma parceria com o Jumbo para operar uns quiosques conjuntos.

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IMHO, cheira-me aqui a desorientação estratégica... será que o potencial consumidor tocado pelo patrocínio da America's Cup é o mesmo que compra viagens turísticas no hipermercado?

Concentrar, focar, alinhar, sintonizar, ... sempre!!!

"We didn't discover the formula for business success. There isn't one. But we did discover something important. By looking at twenty-six companies in depth, we concluded that there are things you can do if you want your company to be successful for a long time.

Develop a simple strategy. Decide how you're going to be distinctive. Decide how you'll make money. Simplify the strategy until it fits neatly in a sentence or two.

Then, focus ruthlessly on your strategy and on the business basics. Stay with your strategy until it doesn't work anymore.

That's simple, but it's difficult. There is the temptation to grow at any cost. There are new CEOs who want to "put their stamp on the company." Pundits urge you to practice "creative destruction." And there's always the lure of the newest, shiniest, magic strategy.

Don't succumb. Stay with the simplicity that works."

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""In real life, strategy is actually very straightforward. You pick a general direction and implement like hell." (Welsh)

It's hard to explain a three-volume, number-filled, strategic plan to mid-level managers and people on the front lines. Simple strategies are easier to explain and easier to implement.

Try putting your strategy into a slogan or a sentence or a couple of sentences that everyone can understand and use as a guide to action."

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Textos retirados de Wally Bock's Three Star Leadership Blog

Experimentar, testar, aprender e evoluir.

O trecho que ontem recortei do livro "Competing for the Future" ficou a ressoar na minha mente com uma preocupação... concentração não significa saber tudo à partida, não quer dizer que se tem tudo estabelecido desde o início.

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Então, no capítulo seguinte encontro algo que ajuda a esclarecer, que ajuda a evitar a mensagem que não queria que fosse apreendida:

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"being first carries a risk of failure disproportionate to the rewards of leadership only when the pioneering firm permits its financial commitment to race ahead of its understanding of the precise nature of the emerging opportunity. The objective is to learn as quickly and as inexpensively as possible about the precise nature of customer demand, the suitability of the new product or service concept, and the need for adjustments in market strategy."

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Boyd ensinou-me os fundamentos da blitzkrieg... schwerpunkt:

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"Schwerpunkt represents a unifying concept that provides a way to rapidly shape focus and direction of effort as well as harmonize support activities with combat operations, thereby permit a true decentralization of tactical command within centralized strategic guidance—without losing cohesion of overall effort.

or put another way

Schwerpunkt represents a unifying medium that provides a directed way to tie initiative of many subordinate actions with superior intent as a basis to diminish friction and compress time in order to generate a favorable mismatch in time/ability to shape and adapt to unfolding circumstances."

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Entretanto, a minha leitura do número especial da revista Long Range Planning dedicado aos modelos de negócio levou-me a um artigo de Rita McGrath, "Business Models: A Discovery Driven Approach":

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"The concept of ‘the business model’ is appealing because it suggests a change to the way that strategies are conceived, created and executed against. In highly uncertain, complex and fast-moving environments, strategies are as much about insight, rapid experimentation and evolutionary learning as they are about the traditional skills of planning and rock-ribbed execution. Modeling, therefore, is a useful approach to figuring out a strategy, as it suggests experimentation, prototyping and a job that is never quite finished.
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business models often cannot be fully anticipated in advance. Rather, they must be learned over time, which emphasizes the centrality of experimentation in the discovery and development of new business models
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Conventionally, the Holy Grail in strategy has been the creation of a ‘sustainable’ competitive advantage. In more and more categories, however, we see firms competing to achieve what we might think of as a ‘temporary’ advantage, which they exploit until competition has caught up or markets have changed, at which point, the hunt is on for a new advantage. The business model construct encourages conversations which might help us discern possible early warnings of model weakness and prompt the search for new ones
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Finally, as business models themselves evolve and mature, adopting the notion suggests a developing understanding that strategy itself is quite frequently discovery driven rather than planning oriented.
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When an existing business model has been copied, made irrelevant by environmental events or is otherwise no longer germane to customers, new business models have the opportunity to flourish. It is difficult, however, to plan analytically for which new models will supplant old ones, since so many of the variables relevant to their success are unknown at the outset. This brings us to the next issue - the centrality of experimentation in discovering new models.
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Most business models are conceived within the boundaries of a particular set of constraints. As new technologies and other shifts relax constraints or impose different ones, the opportunities for new models (and the threats to existing ones) increase. Typically, new models emerge when a constraint is lifted, and old ones often come under pressure when one emerges."

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Este último sublinhado faz-me recordar aquela citação, a vida na Natureza não pensa, tem tem vontade teleológica, a vida na Natureza evolui fugindo, ou contornando as restrições.

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Nós, humanos, pensamos, temos vontade teleológica... mas temos ferramentas incompletas e imperfeitas para perceber o mundo na sua totalidade. Nós estamos no mundo mas não vemos o mundo, vemos a nossa interpretação, o nosso modelo do mundo.

Uma analogia interessante

Já escrevi aqui sobre o quanto o marxianismo que está entranhado em mim se espanta com o preço de, por exemplo, capacetes de marcas premium para ciclismo, sabendo qual é o nível de preço a que saem da fábrica na China. O andrecruzzzz chama a atenção para uma analogia interessante:

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"reflicto muito em marcas premium com fábricas na china..tais fábricas em parceria com sócios chineses que rabsorvem o know-how todo. faz-me lembrar um pouco a história da CIA e da al-quaeda no afeganistão.."

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Se eles um dia começarem a financiar alguns craques do ciclismo e conseguirem, com isso, associar a sua, deles, marca a performance e a vitórias...

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Os apologistas da formação profissional por tudo e por nada, que nunca puseram um pé numa empresa, não imaginam o quão fácil é produzir hoje em dia. O truque não é produzir, o truque é seduzir os donos dos porta-moedas a comprarem.

Sintomas de um PDAEC

O Jornal de Notícias publicou esta madrugada a notícia "Dentistas recusam clientes que usam cheques do Estado". Nela, alguém, apanhado com as calças na mão comenta:

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"“a situação não está totalmente resolvida”, mas está a melhorar"

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Os dentistas contam:

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"“Agora dizem que pagam em Julho um volume significativo. Mas já tinham dito que seria em Junho e, antes disso, tinham prometido em Maio”."

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Há momentos o Público publicava "Dívidas dos cheques-dentista serão liquidadas em Agosto"

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A derrapagem continua... sintomas de um processo de apodrecimento em curso (PDAEC)

Concentrar, alinhar, sintonizar

Concentrar, alinhar, sintonizar, focar, recursos, pessoas, tempo, atenção, imaginação, motivação, sonho e vontade numa aposta, numa oportunidade assente numa qualquer descontinuidade, numa desconformidade, em algo inesperado.

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Quando não há concentração há deriva!

Quando não há concentração não há estratégia, há dispersão

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"The pursuit of a single strategic intent over a long period of time ensures that the efforts of individuals, functional departments, and entire businesses converge on the same goal. In many
companies with which we are acquainted there is no such convergence of long-term goals. We often ask managers to look back over the past six or seven annual strategic plans and test them for consistency in long-term direction. What these managers often find is that development trajectories, definitions of served market, investment programs, and even the definition of the firm's core competencies and core businesses get changed far more often than is justified by changing competitive circumstances. The goal of strategic intent is to ensure there is some "cumulativeness" to month-by-month and year-by-year decisions.
Almost as bad as having no clear aspirational goal is having multiple, competing goals. Where there are no shared, corporatewide priorities for growth and new business development, resource fragmentation and suboptimization is the likely outcome."

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Demasiadas vezes exageramos na atenção que damos à concorrência. E essa atenção exagerada impede-nos de ser diferentes, impede-nos de sermos distintos. Estamos tão distraídos em copiar, em superar pontos negativos face ao concorrente que nos esquecemos de fazer a diferença.

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Trecho de Hamel e Prahalad, retirado de "Competing for the Future"

Desconfio

que os "stress tests" aos bancos foram feitas pelo Ministério da Educação de Portugal.

O fim de uma era (parte II)

Parte I.

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"How a 15-yo Kid Tricked Apple With a Disguised iPhone Tethering App"

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"The scary thing about this is, if Apple isn't secure enough to keep a blatant violation of their rules out of their own store, how many malware-infested apps are slipping into the store right under their noses? It sounds like nobody's at the wheel."

Esticar a corda e começar antes do tempo

Acerca das eternas preparações, acerca das empresas que nunca mais mudam de vida porque ainda não estão preparadas, porque ainda não é tempo, porque falta qualquer coisa, porque ...

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A firm's strategic architecture and its overall strategic intent must be grounded in a deep understanding of potential discontinuities, competitor intentions, and evolving customer needs.

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Nevertheless, a firm's strategic intent should represent an ambition that stretches far beyond the current resources and capabilities of the firm. Unfortunately, planning and budgeting criteria often conspire to prevent the company from committing to a goal that lies beyond the range of currently available resources. What is immediately feasible drives out what is ultimately desirable. Let us explain.

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Strategic planning is, in practice, a "feasibility sieve." It is a tool for ensuring that questions of feasibility are fully addressed. Do we have the resources? Is the market ready? Is the net present value positive? These are the concerns of strategic planning. Strategic planning and capital budgeting are, in essence, used to reject goals when the means for achieving those goals are not readily at hand. They require managers to "Be realistic," which is not a bad thing! These are legitimate questions-there are no excuses for poorly thought out, hare-brained strategies-but what happens if a firm tries to push an ambitious ten-year strategic intent through the sieve? It simply won't go through. (Moi ici: Este "ser realista" versus "optimismo documentado" - termo cunhado pelo José Silva do Norteamos.)

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When what is feasible drives out what is desirable, an ambitious strategic intent becomes impossible. While politics may be the art of the possible, leadership is the art of making the impossible come true.
Mahatma Gandhi, Martin Luther King, and Abraham Lincoln were leaders first, and politicians second. Similarly, strategic intent must take primacy over the realpolitik of planning. Although strategic planning is billed as a way of becoming more future oriented, most managers admit that their strategic plans reveal more about today's problems than tomorrow's opportunities. Plans seldom do more than project the present forward incrementally. The goal of strategic intent, the implicit task in developing a strategic architecture, is to fold the future back into the present. It forces the organization to ask, "What must we be doing differently today if we want to create this particular future-if we want to reach this particular future destination?" (Moi ici: Começar pelo fim, começar pela viagem ao futuro, para depois actuar no presente)
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“We believe that it is essential for top management to set out an aspiration that creates, by design, a chasm between ambition and resources. An explicit emphasis on the notion of "fit," and the way in which the idea of fit is embedded in strategy tools, often deflects managers from the enormously important task of creating a misfit between resources and ambitions. Of course, at any point in time there must be a loose fit between short-term objectives and near-at-hand resources.”
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“Where fit is achieved by simply paring down ambitions, there will be no spur for such ingenuity and much of the firm's strategic potential will remain dormant. Tests of realism and feasibility must not be prematurely applied. Stretch and the creativity it engenders are the engine and fuel for corporate growth and vitality.”

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Estes trechos de Hamel e Prahalad, retirados de "Competing for the Future" apelam a esticar a corda, a percorrer caminhos desconhecidos, a perder o controlo total... recordo aquela citação da F1, atribuída a muita gente:

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"If everything is under control you're not fast enough."

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Se não entramos "fora de controlo", senão deixamos de ser "realistas" estaremos sempre em terreno conhecido de todos e por todos, com poucas hipóteses de criar valor. Claro que alguns espertos aproveitam-se deste "fora de controlo" para ludibriar as empresas.

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Uma reflexão mais recente sobre este mesmo tema encontra-se aqui:

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"Start Before You’re Ready"

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"Good things happen when we start before we’re ready. Not only do we open ourselves to the blessings of happy serendipity, but we steal a march on the forces of procrastination, perfectionism, overpreparation, fear and self-doubt.
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One of the quirks of warfare in the desert, where there are no natural defensive barriers like rivers or mountain ranges, is that, once one side gets the other on the run, that “run” can go on for a long time. In this case it was a thousand miles, all because Rommel started before he was ready.
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By the time we’re ready, it’s too late. The moment has passed. Resistance has seen us coming and has marshaled all its forces to lay us low."

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Nunca me esqueço do europeu de futebol de 1992. Uma selecção tinha ganho no campo o direito a estar presente no evento, a Sérvia. Por causa da política e da guerra foi desqualificada ou suspensa. Assim, à última da hora, sem preparação, com alguns jogadores já em férias, literalmente, foi repescada à pressa a selecção da Dinamarca para substituir a Sérvia e ser campeã da Europa. Depois, quando vemos toda a preparação de algumas selecções... dá que pensar.

Outra forma de começar pelo fim!!!

"Let’s start with operations. The business operations of large Western companies have been built during the past century around the concept of “pushing” resources into the areas of greatest anticipated need.

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Whether it’s the shelves of a retail store, the activities of a manufacturing plant, or the processes comprising human resource management, push approaches try to forecast demand and then design operations to ensure they deploy the right resources to the right place at the right time.
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Push programs have enabled scalable, cost-effective operations. But they’ve come at a steep price: the rigid standardization and specication of activities and tasks they require. The highly specied operations manuals created by traditional push programs are in many ways antithetical to talent development, which requires workers to improvise and experiment with their working practices in order to learn and grow.
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But what if, rather than trying to forecast demand and standardize operations so as to avoid surprises, companies were to create more exible “pull” platforms to help participants access resources whenever and wherever they are needed? What if, rather than treating exceptions (such as quality exceptions on a manufacturing assembly line) as a nuisance to be eliminated, companies welcomed them as an opportunity for participants to tinker and experiment?"

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Trecho retirado de "The Power of Pull" de John Hagel, John Brown e Land Davison

Arquitectura estratégica e modelo de negócio

O artigo "Business Model Design: An Activity System Perspective" de Christoph Zott e Raphael Amit, publicado no volume 43 da revista Long Range Planning é uma boa referência sobre o conceito de modelo de negócio. Seguem-se alguns recortes:

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"Each of these choices involves a fundamentally different business model, that is, implies a different set of activities, as well as the resources and capabilities to perform them - either within the firm, or beyond it through cooperation with partners, suppliers or customers. And each choice will have implications for the venture’s performance potential - it will affect what capital expenditures are necessary, what prices can be charged and what margins earned, and, perhaps most importantly, which customers and competitors the new firm will deal with. In other words, the design of the business model is a key decision for an entrepreneur who creates a new firm - and a crucial - perhaps more difficult e task for general managers who are charged with rethinking their old model to make their firm fit for the future.

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“the overall objective of a focal firm’s business model is to exploit a business opportunity by creating value for the parties involved, i.e., to fulfill customers’ needs and create customer surplus while generating a profit for the focal firm and its partners. That objective is reflected in the customer value proposition, and has been characterized by Magretta as ‘the value creating insight on which the firm turns’. An activity in a focal firm’s business model can be viewed as the engagement of human, physical and/or capital resources of any party to the business model (the focal firm, end customers, vendors, etc.) to serve a specific purpose toward the fulfillment of the overall objective. An activity system is thus a set of interdependent organizational activities centered on a focal firm, including those conducted by the focal firm, its partners, vendors or customers, etc.. The firm’s activity system may transcend the focal firm and span its boundaries, but will remain firm-centric to enable the focal firm not only to create value with its partners, but also to appropriate a share of the value created itself.

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Interdependencies among activities are central to the concept of an activity system, and provide insights into the processes that enable the evolution of a focal firm’s activity system over time as its competitive environment changes. (Moi ici: Esta interdependência organizada, orquestrada, arquitectada é um claro exemplo da evolução de mistério para algoritmo que Roger Martin tão bem explica) These interdependencies are created by entrepreneurs or managers who shape and design both the organizational activities and the links (transactions) that weave activities together into a system. Such purposeful design - within and across firm boundaries - is the essence of the business model. Some activities relevant to the focal firm’s business model will be performed by the firm itself, others by suppliers, partners and/or customers. The architecture of the firm’s activity system - shaped by the choice of activities, how they are linked, and who performs them - captures how the focal firm is embedded in its ‘ecology,’ i.e., in its multiple networks of suppliers, partners and customers, as well as defining who are the firm’s potential suppliers, partners and customers (and competitors) in the first place.
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These important consequences of the firm’s business model design choice have obvious ramifications for its ability to create and capture value. The stronger the competition implied by the choice of the business model, for instance, the more difficult value appropriation will be. The firm’s revenue model also plays an important role in value appropriation.
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A business model is geared toward total value creation for all parties involved. It lays the foundations for the focal firm’s value capture by co-defining (along with the firm’s products and services) the overall ‘size of the value pie,’ or the total value created in transactions, which can be considered the upper limit of the “firm’s value capture potential."

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Leio isto num artigo publicado em 2010 e faço o paralelismo para o livro publicado em 1994 por Hamel e Prahalad, "Competing for the Future":

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“Not only must the future be imagined, it must be built; hence our term, "strategic architecture." An architect must be capable of dreaming of things not yet created-a cathedral where there is now only a dusty plain, or an elegant span across a chasm that hasn't yet been crossed. But an architect must also be capable of producing a blueprint for how to turn the dream into reality. An architect is both a dreamer and a draftsman. An architect marries art with structural engineering.
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There seems to be, in many companies, an implicit assumption that the short term and long term abut each other, rather than being dovetailed together. But the long term doesn't start at year five of the current strategic plan. It starts right now!
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A strategic architecture identifies "what we must be doing right now" to intercept the future. A strategic architecture is the essential link between today and tomorrow, between short term and long term.
It shows the organization what competencies it must begin building right now, what new customer groups it must begin to understand right now, what new channels it should be exploring right nozu, what new development priorities it should be pursuing right now to intercept the future. Strategic architecture is a broad opportunity approach plan.”

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Aquilo a que Hamel e Prahalad chamaram "arquitectura estratégica" foi, IMHO, uma contribuição para a evolução de algo a que hoje chamamos "modelo de negócio".

Caldeirada

Para certas empresas, o seu modelo de negócio já não se adapta ao Portugal de hoje:

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"Leoni de Viana do Castelo acaba produção para a semana"

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"Fábrica da Delphi na Guarda vai encerrar com 321 trabalhadores"

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A destruição continua, essencial para libertar recursos acorrentados ao passado:

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"Mais 1565 insolvências em três meses apenas"

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Os teóricos sentados na secretária continuam a olhar para a economia como peças de Lego que podem manipular a seu belo-prazer. Ás segundas, terças e quartas:

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"Os acordos têm de se cumprir"

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Ás quintas, sextas e sábados, são precisos estímulos:

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"Estímulos públicos versus crescimento económico" para proteger o passado...

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Entretanto as pessoas aprendem a brincar com o sistema:

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""O que tem valido é o recurso aos imigrantes""

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"Empregados, precisam-se!"

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""Não se percebe que haja tanta falta de pessoal""

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Por alguma razão, como lembra Pedro Arroja, nenhuma sociedade humana ateia ou areligiosa ficou na história.

Et voilá!

A nossa sorte é termos o Estado que nos pastoreia sob um regime de austeridade, senão era muito pior.

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Síntese da Execução Orçamental - Julho 2010.

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"A despesa efectiva do Estado cresceu 4,3% (Moi ici: ainda bem que PPC negociou um corte na despesa do Estado com JS) relativamente a igual período do ano anterior, apresentando um grau de execução de 48,7% ligeiramente acima da média do perfil intra-anual de execução
da despesa nos quatro anos precedentes (48,5%).

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A despesa primária aumentou 4,7% em termos homólogos, acelerando 0,7 pp. relativamente ao período anterior.
De salientar que, excluindo as transferências para outros subsectores das Administrações Públicas, a VH da despesa efectiva se situa em 1,4%.
Os principais factores que influenciam a evolução das diferentes rubricas da despesa do Estado são os seguintes:
Aumento das “despesas com pessoal” de 1,7%, determinado pelo crescimento das seguintes rubricas:
“Remunerações certas e permanentes” (+1,5%), reflectindo o impacto orçamental associado à implementação dos novos sistemas remuneratórios das forças de segurança e dos militares, bem como às alterações de posições remuneratórias de docentes do ensino não superior associadas ao processo de avaliação (Moi ici: os tais 450 milhões anuais, prenda de Isabel Alçada); e"

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O monstro, como os Daleks da série Dr. Who,

está sempre a gritar "Mais, mais, mais impostos!!!"

Estratégia e modelo de negócio

Fala-se muito de modelos de negócio, um conceito interessante.

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Receio, posso estar enganado, que se fale pouco da estratégia por detrás de um modelo de negócio.

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David Teece em "Business Models, Business Strategy and Innovation" e publicado na Long Range Planning 43 (2010) chama a atenção para o tema:

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"Business model choices define the architecture of the business, and expansion paths develop from there on out.
...
innovating with business models will not, by itself, build enterprise-level competitive advantage.
However, newbusinessmodels, or refinements to existing ones, like newproducts themselves, often result in lower cost or increased value to the consumer; if not easily replicated by competitors, they can provide an opportunity to generate higher returns to the pioneer, at least until their novel features are copied. These issues are summarized in Figure 2."

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Uma pergunta interessante

Algo está a mudar e quem procura antecipar o futuro tem de estar atento:

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"Is the era of cheap Chinese labour over?"

O fim de uma era

O fim da invencibilidade da Apple?

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A mudança da maré?

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"Steve Jobs's Disastrous iPhone 4 Press Conference"