terça-feira, julho 14, 2009
Últimas!!!
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E como evoluirá a arrecadação de impostos em Junho?
A nossa recalibração (parte I)
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Perante o colapso em curso qual a resposta à recalibração?
O medo do comunismo soviético (parte II)
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Quando se perde a esperança... "Japanese turn to communists in downturn"
Estratégia, proposta de valor, clientes-alvo, originação de valor
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A criação de valor, ou como escreve Larreche, a originação de valor para os clientes deve ser o centro, o núcleo de qualquer estratégia sustentável para um negócio. Só a criação de valor não tem limites, ao contrário do corte nos custos (não esquecer: poupar não é o mesmo que ganhar)
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A percepção sobre o que é, sobre o que tem valor é algo de muito pessoal, por isso, diferentes clientes percepcionam diferentes coisas como sendo ou tendo valor. E, como só os clientes podem determinar se percepcionam que foi criado valor, é fundamental segmentar os potenciais clientes em grupos mais ou menos homogéneos relativamente aos seus conceitos de valor. Assim, a cada grupo corresponderá um tipo de clientes-alvo.
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Por isso; quem são os clientes-alvo? É fundamental responder a esta questão, porque temos de criar e acrescentar valor apropriado para esses clientes. Quem são os clientes-alvo? Que clientes queremos atrair e reter e como é que esses desejos se compatibilizam com a empresa que se quer ser e com a sua história e recursos?
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Que componentes de uma proposta de valor são vistos pelos clientes-alvo como criadores de valor para eles?
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Diferentes empresas especializam-se na criação de diferentes formas de valor, a isso também se chama “posicionamento”.
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A estratégia de criação de valor de uma empresa deve ser adequada e ajustada aos seus clientes-alvo , por isso, a forma como os concorrentes criam valor para os seus clientes não deve necessariamente influenciar a forma como uma empresa em particular cria valor para os seus clientes-alvo.
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O que é que os clientes-alvo valorizam?
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Algumas formas de valor têm mais atracção para alguns clientes do que para outros. Assim, o desafio passa por identificar o que é que os clientes-alvo valorizam e criar o tipo de valor que notam, reparam e apreciam para o entregar.
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Começam a ver como jogar com os conceitos estratégia, proposta de valor, clientes-alvo e originação de valor?
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Enquanto não falarmos em criar valor e em recriá-lo constantemente andaremos a adiar o inevitável.
Analisar resultados tem técnica, não é só olhar.
- Uns dias são melhores que outros;
- Comportamentos, padrões... não, "happenings"; não, eventos; não, meteoros;
- Não cairás na tentação da esquizofrenia analítica
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"Red-yellow-green scorecards (dashboard) in the balanced scorecard and elsewhere can lead to significant unhealthy problems and firefighting. I know that this is contrary to what is currently being done."
segunda-feira, julho 13, 2009
Zimbabwéices
E a criação de valor?
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E a criação de valor? E a originação de valor? E a aposta no numerador da produtividade? E a necessidade de ser alemão?
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Não esquecer o que é que a AEP entende por aumento da produtividade.
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E se em vez de recorrerem a "... professores da Escola de Gestão Empresarial, criada através de uma parceria entre a Universidade Católica, a AEP e a Universidade de Aveiro." que só lidam com o lado racional do cortex cerebral, que não têm casos amorosos com clientes/fornecedores/produtos/serviços e aplicam as técnicas pedagógicas válidas para crianças e jovens não independentes economicamente, recorressem aos pares, que contam histórias que ressoam no lado límbico-emocional do cérebro, aplicam a andragogia e têm a vantagem do exemplo do "been there done that"?
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Pessoalmente acho que exemplos como o da Inarbel eram muito mais adequados.
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Convém não esquecer o que é que Daniel Bessa escrevia em 2005 sobre o futuro do calçado em Portugal... conhecem algum macroeconomista que tenha "erecções psicológicas" por causa de um negócio com potencial? Como? Se só visualizam manobras lineares de Lanchester.
O papel das pequenas empresas (parte IV)
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To seize the Endgame niche fighter’s captured market, the scale leader knows that it would have to take on the associated segment costs. Later on in the sector consolidation process, a smart and innovative scale leader can, segment by segment, take out niche players that know only how to segment, specialize, and focus. To avoid this, Endgame niche fighters must strive to maintain their distinct personalities."
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Se os líderes da escala e do preço se preocupam com os custos... as pequenas empresas têm de competir complicando, complexificando o negócio, trabalhando onde os custos são maiores.
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IMHO, é este pormaior que falta na abordagem dos macroeconomistas que só equacionam os custos e não reflectem sobre o valor criado.
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"The customer must decide whether value is being created or added, and customers define value in many different ways—some see value in the lowest price. But current research would have us conclude that maybe as few as 20 percent of customers in any given product or service category are truly price driven—that is, they regularly look for the lowest prices available. This leaves 80 percent or more who define value more broadly and who care about more than price alone. While this percentage is certainly a rough estimate, and although the measurement of something as ephemeral as price sensitivity is subjective and prone to variability across product categories and situations, the principle is nevertheless an important one: Some large percentage of customers are indeed not particularly focused on price. They want value and they define it on their own terms. In fact, I regularly meet customers who tell me that they would willingly pay more if the company would only perform or behave in a certain way."
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Trecho 1 retirado do livro "BEATING THE GLOBAL CONSOLIDATION ENDGAME - Nine Strategies for Winning in Niches" de Fritz Kroeger, Andrej Vizjak e Michael Moriarty.
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Trecho 2 retirado do livro "BUILD YOUR CUSTOMER STRATEGY - A Guide to Creating Profitable Customer Relationships" de James G. Barnes.
Qual o interesse em manter uma sociedade assim?
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"Asked if he expects to surpass his parents' standard of living, he laughs bitterly. "I don't have expectations of surpassing them. I don't have expectations of anything.""
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"Lorena Domínguez, the unemployed automobile worker in Vigo, never had a permanent contract at Citroën, but there were years when she was earning good money, and she expected that the firm would offer her a permanent contract one day. The future seemed full of promise and rising living standards. Now she spends her time looking for work waiting tables, selling insurance, cleaning offices. "My generation was born into an era of abundance," she says. "I guess our expectations were just too high.""
Uma ideia a ganhar adeptos
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"Smith is celebrated for his “invisible hand” theory, which holds that when greedy people trade for their own advantage in unfettered private markets, they will often be led, as if by an invisible hand, to produce the greatest good for all. The invisible hand remains a powerful narrative, but after the recent economic wreckage, skepticism about it has grown. My prediction is that it will eventually be supplanted by a version of Darwin’s more general narrative — one that grants the invisible hand its due, but also strips it of the sweeping powers that many now ascribe to it."
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Uma previsão fácil de fazer, sobretudo depois de ler "Origin of Wealth: Evolution, Complexity, and the Radical Remaking of Economics" de Eric D. Beinhocker.
domingo, julho 12, 2009
Que resposta para a recalibração?
- "When Will The Recovery Begin? Never." e sobretudo aquele trecho "The X marks a brand new track -- a new economy. What will it look like? Nobody knows. All we know is the current economy can't "recover" because it can't go back to where it was before the crash. So instead of asking when the recovery will start, we should be asking when and how the new economy will begin."
- "This is not a recession" e sobretudo ""Don't think of our current economic crisis as a recession. Instead, think of it as a recalibration.Everything is different now.If you think of it as a recession, you may be tempted to "hunker down" and wait for the economy to cycle back. If you think of it as a recalibration, you will be motivated to focus on what you have to do differently, since everything is different now. The way your business generates results is different, now. Your customers think differently, now. Your customers care about different things, now. Your customers act differently, now. Your customers may actually be different people, now. Customers aren't disposable anymore; more than ever, you have to create sustainable customer relationships. Everything is different now. I'm posting this on January 7, 2009. One thing I'm convinced of is that the world I am working in today is different from any world I have ever done business in. The world has been reset. We can no longer look at the "LY" column on reports to use last year as a benchmark for what will happen this year."
- "Acordar as moscas que estão a dormir (parte XXVII)" onde se fala da quebra de 20% na colecta de impostos em Portugal, quando se compara 2008 com 2009.
E se estamos mesmo num mundo novo (coisa em que acredito)?
O ecossistema que existia, assente não na energia solar mas nos ienes baratos e no endividamente compulsivo, colapsou.
Aconteceu o mesmo há 65 milhões de anos... pelos vistos um meteoro terá chocado com a terra algures na zona do actual Iucatão, as espécies mais poderosas, as espécies maiores, as espécies dominantes... incapazes de se adaptarem pereceram.
Como é que o nosso país se poderá adaptar a este cenário de recalibração com tantos direitos adquiridos?
Haverá possibilidade de actuar e adaptarmo-nos, ou teremos de esperar pelo ponto da singularidade, pela implosão real, para fazer o reset e avançar para um Portugal pós-Abril de 1974 2.0?
Edward Hugh escreve isto sobre Espanha no Facebook, e Espanha apesar de tudo parece estar em melhor situação que Portugal:
"But the real problem is with the level of indebtedness of the population, Spain is now as dependent on exports as Germany is, but currently runs a current account deficit of about 8 percent of GDP.
So Spain needs a crash course policy to jump start exports and investment in export industries. But this means a large change in prices, and this isn't going to happen, since no one even believes it is possible. So the economy will crash, like in an earthquake, maybe 12 to 18 months from now, when the government can no longer raise money. (E nós por cá, quanto mais meses teremos?)
Meantime Zapatero twiddles his thumbs. That is what I am angry about. The explosion when this economy finally blows will rock Spain, let's just hope it won't rock the whole eurozone with it.!"
Será que alguém vai falar disto durante a próxima campanha eleitoral?
sábado, julho 11, 2009
Estratégias puras e híbridas - opções!
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"Thornhill and White (2007) found that firms with a one-sided focus on either cost leadership or differentiation outperformed firms with mixed strategies in terms of short-term operating margin. They also found that despite pure strategies’observable performance benefits, the vast majority of firms occupy strategic space’s middle ground. The explanation was found in a follow-up study (Thornhill et al., 2007): Although pure players are more profitable, they also have higher risks and higher exit rates. The authors conclude that a middle position may be a rational choice that reflects firms’ preference for growth and survival rather than short-term profit maximization."
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Este trecho retirado de "Organizational Ambidexterity: Antecedents, Outcomes, and Moderators" de Sebastian Raisch e Julian Birkinshaw no Journal of Management em Março de 2008.
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O que é preferível para uma sociedade:
- Empresas mais rentáveis que seguem estratégias puras e que têm uma duração média de vida mais curta?
- Ou, empresas menos rentáveis que seguem estratégias híbridas e que têm uma duração média de vida mais longa?
Claro que a primeira opção implica uma sociedade mais móvel em que o fecho e o arranque de empresas é muito mais frequente e fácil.
When Will The Recovery Begin? Never.
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"Problem is, consumers won't start spending until they have money in their pockets and feel reasonably secure. But they don't have the money, and it's hard to see where it will come from. They can't borrow. Their homes are worth a fraction of what they were before, so say goodbye to home equity loans and refinancings. One out of ten home owners is under water -- owing more on their homes than their homes are worth. Unemployment continues to rise, and number of hours at work continues to drop. Those who can are saving. Those who can't are hunkering down, as they must."
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"My prediction, then? Not a V, not a U. But an X. This economy can't get back on track because the track we were on for years -- featuring flat or declining median wages, mounting consumer debt (à atenção do Forum para a Competitividade e das suas teorias de redução administrativa de salários), and widening insecurity, not to mention increasing carbon in the atmosphere -- simply cannot be sustained.
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The X marks a brand new track -- a new economy. What will it look like? Nobody knows. All we know is the current economy can't "recover" because it can't go back to where it was before the crash. So instead of asking when the recovery will start, we should be asking when and how the new economy will begin."
Fantasma do Governo Futuro
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Um governo com Louçã ou Ilda Figueiredo como ministro das Finanças, para apreenderem verdadeiramente o que significaria aplicar todas as propostas que enunciam e as consequências.
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"E se o Bloco de Esquerda fosse Governo?"
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"Portugal fora da Nato, Galp e EDP nacionalizadas e drogas leves legais.": Isso é folclore, e os juros? E os movimentos de capital? E a criação de riqueza? E a permanência no euro? E ...
Também tive um
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Ainda guardo uma aqui no escritório.
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"Ardósia de Valongo em escolas francesas"
sexta-feira, julho 10, 2009
O papel das pequenas empresas (parte III)
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Volto a uns recortes do livro "BEATING THE GLOBAL CONSOLIDATION ENDGAME - Nine Strategies for Winning in Niches" de Fritz Kroeger, Andrej Vizjak e Michael Moriarty para alimentar a reflexão:
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"What are the foundations of a stable, defendable, and profitable niche? How can businesses create a successful niche strategy (or at least know when one is found)? And what can businesses do to keep running as long as possible? The three elements that make up an Endgame niche are ...
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1. Segmentation. Specialty market segments allow niche companies to play in the global business arena. Global leaders cannot both pursue a juggernaut strategy and address the specialized needs of every customer segment. The market leaders all give lip service to providing customized products and services, catering to geographic and market differences, and addressing the needs of different buying behaviors; however, the truth is, their main priority is their own bottom line.
This is not an editorial comment, but economic reality. If companies did not take this approach, shareholders would not buy their stock, their weighted average cost of capital would rise, and they would lose their competitiveness and fall victim to another industry leader that was more than happy to take the business. There is an upside in all this for niche fighters, however. Since the consolidators are almost exclusively fixated on the bottom line, this opens opportunities for smaller companies to come in and sweep up unserved needs that fall behind in the process—as long as they make the right moves."
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O próximo elemento a analisar é o foco, a concentração na criação de valor.
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"2. Value-added focus. The second element of an Endgame niche is that niche players must focus on an area of the value chain different from that addressed by the market leader.
This allows the niche fighter to win by capitalizing on a business opportunity in which the scale leader not only has little interest, but also has less capability to exploit the scale advantages it enjoys elsewhere. Here, the difference between the mainstream market and the niche market is particularly relevant and becomes an obvious Endgame niche market opportunity. If we differentiate between basic costs and segment costs in the value chain and compare an Endgame
niche fighter with a scale leader, it is clear that the niche fighter has a higher share of segment costs. These costs must be proportionately high, so as to provide a barrier to scale leaders that seek to arbitrage their lower basic costs."
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Por fim, algo relacionado com a discussão sobre o dilema da produtividade:
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"3. Complexity. The third element of an Endgame niche is that fighters must be dynamic and innovative. This requires not only mastering the skills of specialization and market focus,
but also finally (in the context of the Merger Endgame Theory) being able to differentiate themselves from the scale leaders, which leads to more complexity."
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Adoro esta história dos nichos, permite que empresas pequenas, com as movimentações adequadas, flexíveis e rápidas repitam a lição da batalha de Canas.
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Associado a este tema dos nichos temos o tema da criação de valor. Esse é o TEMA!!!
Comparar os números e reflectir
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The performance difference between these two benchmark airlines could not be clearer, and yet their media treatment belies this. Ryanair gets regularly pilloried for its relentless efforts to cut its operating costs, simplify its processes, and find novel ways to charge passengers for "extras"—like using the toilet in flight! BA, on the other hand, continues to get a largely sympathetic press as it tries to persuade its staff to take less pay, in one form or another, to offset their declining numbers and mounting losses.
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So, which airline is setting the better example of contemporary business excellence? Which is doing the best overall job for its customers? Which of them gives the best indication of the way forward when it comes to leading businesses out of the current economic mire?"
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Trecho de Richard King no sítio de Tom Peters.
quinta-feira, julho 09, 2009
O dilema da produtividade (parte II)
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"Exploitation, Exploration, and Process Management: The Productivity Dilemma Revisited" (Mary Benner e Michael Tushman, Academy of Management Review, 2003)
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"The Organizational Tension Between Static and Dynamic Efficiency" (Pankaj Ghemawat e Joan Ricart, Research Paper nº 255, 1993, IESE)