Engenharia eleitoral (parte III)

Parte I e parte II.

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"Produção industrial na Alemanha caiu 1,8% em Outubro"

E o pior já passou... passou mesmo? E o pior para quem? (parte II)

Dia após dia vou recolhendo mais e mais informação para compor os cenários do futuro, tendo em conta as limitações do espaço de Minkowsky.

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Mats Lindgren e Hans Bandhold no livro Scenario Planning escrevem:

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"Although scenario planning processes concern the future, it is important to have a clear picture of the present and the past. What is the history of the organization and how has it developed up to now? How has the competitive landscape developed and what have been the triggers for change? Which have been the main indicators of changes in the landscape so far?
You might object that the future landscape is extremely uncertain and that there are many new threats and possibilities. But there are a lot of driving forces in the surrounding world that remain the same. The logic of the arena is still there and even if you consider that your organization is very future-oriented, it is most probable that the changes are fairly slow and that you have competitors who are forerunners as well as followers."

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Mais algumas:

• "FMI diz que retoma não chega para reduzir o défice"
• "FMI pede "contenção" nos salários da função pública e "cuidado" nos subsídios sociais"
• ""Aumento do IVA" é uma opção para reduzir défice em Portugal"

Com estes ingredientes que bolo poderá ser cozinhado?

Canário (parte IX)

Vai ser bonita a festa ...

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E vai ajudar a enterrar de vez os TGVs e auto-estradas e o status-quo português.

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"Greece can expect no gifts from Europe"

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"The EU’s authorities, rightly or wrongly, are more afraid of the moral hazard of a bail-out than the possible spillover effect of a hypothetical Greek default to other eurozone countries. If faced with a choice between preserving the integrity of the stability pact and the integrity of Greece, they are currently minded to choose the former."

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Nas costas dos outros vemos as nossas.

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"The lion’s share of the total deficit reduction effort is earmarked to come from tax measures, and most of those from the fight against tax evasion. Tax evasion is always the item first on the list of desperate governments. (Moi ici: onde é que eu já visto?) The European Commission and Europe’s finance ministers, who have heard this story before, are rightly asking for genuine deficit reduction."

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Wolfgang Munchau é mais optimista que eu: "Just as the Greek people are unprepared for austerity, investors are unprepared for what awaits them. I would still bet that outright default is unlikely. But I wonder whether the current Greek bond spreads reflect the true risks."

O deboche despesista (parte II)

Talvez estas vozes e o destino dos grandes dominós grego e espanhol venham impor o fim do deboche despesista em que os governos se têm envolvido.

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"Moody's reforça ‘outlook' negativo para dívida portuguesa"

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"Moddy's reforça outlook negativo sobre dívida pública portuguesa"

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Talvez o Dubai também ajude à festa.

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A espiral despesista e irracional em que se envolveram os governos talvez desemboque na necessidade de uma guerra para desviar as atenções... este postal dá muito que pensar "Marc Faber Sees War Against an Invented Enemy and a Big Financial Bust":

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""I think eventually there will be a big bust and then the whole credit expansion will come to an end," Faber added.
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"Before that happens, governments will continue printing money which in time will lead to a very high inflation rate, and the economy will not respond to stimulus".
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In one of his Gloomiest predictions, Faber, referred to as Dr Doom, said "the average family will be hurt by that, and then in order to distract the attention of the people, the governments will go to war".
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"People ask me against whom? Well, they will invent an enemy," Faber said."

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"Faber: The years 2006 and 2007 were "the peak of prosperity" and the world economy is not likely to return soon to that level.
Mish: Agreed. I had quite some time ago proposed Peak Credit and her twin sister Peak Earnings have arrived. Here is a snip from the former. ... That final wave of consumer recklessness created the exact conditions required for its own destruction. The housing bubble orgy was the last hurrah. It is not coming back and there will be no bigger bubble to replace it. Consumers and banks have both been burnt, and attitudes have changed."

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BTW, aquelas palavras da Moody's: "A agência destaca que a situação orçamental portuguesa "estava já a deteriorar-se há algum tempo, ainda antes de a crise financeira começar". Além disso, a economia portuguesa "está presa numa dinâmica de baixo crescimento devido à fraca competitividade", o que faz com o Governo tenha de "tomar decisões difíceis se quiser reduzir a dívida""

Para reflexão

"So, people and some central banks are seeking refuge in a stable currency that is beyond the control of the financial engineers.

"With the exception only of the period of the gold standard, practically all governments of history have used their exclusive power to issue money to defraud and plunder the people." Fredrich August von Hayek

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"The gold standard has one tremendous virtue: the quantity of the money supply, under the gold standard, is independent of the policies of governments and political parties. This is its advantage. It is a form of protection against spendthrift governments." Ludwig von Mises
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Alan Greenspan himself states the case most eloquently in his famous essay from 1966 Gold and Economic Freedom.
"This is the shabby secret of the welfare statists' tirades against gold. Deficit spending is simply a scheme for the confiscation of wealth. Gold stands in the way of this insidious process. It stands as a protector of property rights. If one grasps this, one has no difficulty in understanding the statists' antagonism toward the gold standard.""

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Por que sobe a cotação do ouro...

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E ainda:

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"Personally, I have been feeling vertigo with gold near $1180. All my contrarian instincts cause me to dislike momentum stories — but there again, maybe this is not momentum. Perhaps it is a civilization shift. Can’t make up my mind."

O canário grego (parte II)

"Bets rise on rich country bond defaults"

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"Greek market falls alert eurozone"

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"Could sovereign debt be the new subprime?"

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Vai ser uma festa bonita pá!

O canário grego

Simplesmente adoro.

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Adoro a poesia incluída nos textos de Ambrose-Pritchard, por exemplo:

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"Euro membership blocks every plausible way out of the crisis, other than EU beggary. This is what happens when a facile political elite signs up to a currency union for reasons of prestige or to snatch windfall gains without understanding the terms of its Faustian contract."

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"The newly-elected Hellenic Socialists (PASOK) of George Papandreou confess that the budget deficit will be more than 12pc of GDP this year, four times the original claim of the last lot. After campaigning on extra spending, it will have to do the exact opposite. "We need to save the country from bankruptcy," he said. (Moi ici: onde é que eu já vi este filme? Eu não sabia!!!)
Good luck. Communist-led shipyard workers have already clashed violently with police. Some 200 anarchists were arrested in Athens last week after they torched streets of cars in a tear gas battle.

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Mr Papandreou has mooted a pay freeze for state workers earning more than €2,000 a month. (Moi ici: Picanço e Avoila contratariam snipers") This has already set off an internal party revolt. "There is enormous denial," said Lars Christensen, emerging markets chief at Danske Bank. "They don't seem to understand that very serious austerity measures are needed. It is a striking contrast with Ireland," he said."

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"Modern economies have reached such debt levels before, and survived, but never in the circumstances facing Greece. "They can't devalue: they can't print money," said Mr Christensen.
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Wages rose a staggering 12pc in the 2008-2009 pay-round alone (IMF data), suicidal in a Teutonic currency union. Greece has slipped to 71st in the competitiveness index of the World Economic Forum, behind Egypt and Botswana."

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E se o dominó grego cair, acreditam que não seremos afectados?

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Trechos retirado daqui.

O deboche despesista

"In my view, whatever predictive ability markets once had has been steadily eroded by years of monetary recklessness, a cultural shift away from long-term investing towards short-term trading and speculation, and the shrinking share of market participants -- read professionals -- who actually understand the fundamentals that matter.

So, to those economists who keep insisting that the large and growing obligations our government is committing us to in the name of saving or increasing jobs -- a theory that hasn't quite panned out yet, as it happens -- don't matter because markets are signalling otherwise, I say one thing.

Bunk."

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Trecho retirado daqui

Para reflexão

A diferença entre a economia da França e a economia da Alemanha segundo Edward Hugh, e o papel da demografia, do mercado interno e a necessidade de exportar.

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Roubini abandonou a postura optimista dos últimos meses (?), quanto ao desemprego o pior está para vir.

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E a propósito do desemprego este artigo no WSJ "China and the American Jobs Machine":

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"Both America and China are capable of producing far more than their own consumers are capable of buying. In the U.S., the root of the problem is a growing share of total income going to the richest Americans, leaving the middle class with relatively less purchasing power unless they go deep into debt. Inequality is also widening in China, but the problem there is a declining share of the fruits of economic growth going to average Chinese and an increasing share going to capital investment.

Both societies are threatened by the disconnect between production and consumption. In China, the threat is civil unrest. In the U.S., it's a prolonged jobs and earnings recession that, when combined with widening inequality, could create political backlash."

Está tudo doido ou Acordar as moscas que estão a dormir (parte 43)

Desta vez é um daqueles comentadores que defende que baixar salários é de esquerda.

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Daniel Amaral no DE publica o artigo "Está tudo doido", já há muito tempo meu caro, já há muitos anos.

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"Olho para estes números e fico arrepiado com a desfaçatez de algumas propostas que vão aparecendo por aí. Uns defendem a baixa de impostos. Outros querem aumentar os subsídios. E há ainda quem sugira que se dê mais um jeitinho às pensões. Não me surpreenderia se, daqui a uns meses, quando começarem as greves, todos se unissem aos sindicatos em nome de uma luta comum: o aumento dos salários."

Acordar as moscas que estão a dormir (parte 41)

Angela Merkel não conta estórias da Carochinha:

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"In her first major policy speech since her new center-right government took office, she told parliament that the brunt of the economic crisis will hit the country in 2010, particularly through rising unemployment.
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"The problems will become bigger before things get better," Ms. Merkel said. "That is the situation.""

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Trecho retirado de "Merkel Says Brunt of Crisis Will Hit Germany in 2010"

Já estou instalado e aguardo... (parte III)

Qual será o plano de resposta a este desafio "Portugal tem até 2013 para controlar o défice orçamental"

Como eu gostava que o meu país aprendesse com os erros dos outros

"It acquiesced in a mad investment bubble (like China now) in the 1980s, stealing growth from the future.
It wasted its immense fiscal firepower, scattering money for 20 years on half-baked spending projects to keep the economy afloat. QE was too little, too late, and this is the lesson for the West. We must cut borrowing drastically over the next decade, and offset this with ultra-easy monetary policy."

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Alguém vai pedir responsabilidades aos políticos que tomaram as decisões na altura? Hipotecaram o futuro para ganharem eleições então, para fazerem boa figura nos debates no parlamento, para terem boas estatísticas, para terem boas primeiras páginas, para ajudar os amigos, para...

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Toda essa gente, hoje, pertence à história. Ocuparam o palco, brilharam e saíram deixando aos que ficam, aos contribuintes, a criança nos braços. O pau vai, as costas folgam, mas o pau volta outra vez e com força redobrada... como ilustra tão bem Elaine, as mitologias antigas faziam muitas referências à deusa do equilíbrio, à balança.

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Trecho retirado de um artigo de Evans-Pritchard.

"merely kicking the can down the road"

Este postal "The choice is between increasing or decreasing aggregate demand" chama a atenção para o excesso de capacidade instalada:

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"Patrões defendem manutenção de apoios estatais “pelo menos até 2011”"

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"De acordo com o presidente da Confederação da Indústria Portuguesa (CIP) - que falava aos jornalistas em nome de todas as confederações patronais hoje ouvidas por Sócrates no âmbito do encontro europeu - o planeamento do fim da crise e a substituição dos apoios estatais pela iniciativa privada estarão em cima da mesa nas reuniões em Bruxelas.

“A situação está estabilizada. Os maiores perigos estão ultrapassados (Moi ici: ultrapassados!?) e é natural que os líderes europeus precisem de discutir, nesta altura, o fim dos apoios do Estado, sobretudo por causa do défice orçamental”, defendeu Francisco Van Zeller.

No entanto, advertiu, é “impensável” retirar os apoios sectoriais “pelo menos até 2011”. "

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O que é que estes apoios têm feito? Têm promovido a urgência de mudar?

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"to the degree that government deficit spending is used as a vehicle for channeling funds to so-called systemically important businesses to prevent them from failing, we are merely kicking the can down the road. With the deleveraging, malinvestment must be purged for the economy to right itself on a sustainable growth path."

I'm not alone (parte III)

"Gillian Tett: “Was October 2008 just a dress rehearsal?”"

I'm not alone (parte II)

"This second bubble is revealing itself through many familiar symptoms: soaring equity markets divorced from economic fundamentals, billions being stashed for bankers' bonuses, interest rate spreads on debt, such as corporate bonds, narrowing fast and even residential and commercial property markets showing signs of recovery."
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Pois, isto ainda vai dar para o torto: "As Credit Crunch II looms, we must learn to escape risk of moral hazard"

I'm not alone

Há dias expressei aqui a minha preocupação com a situação que vivemos.

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Ontem, descobri no FT este artigo de Munchau "Countdown to the next crisis is already under way" que vai na mesma onda... preocupante.

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"Our present situation can give rise to two scenarios – or some combination of the two. The first is that central banks start exiting at some point in 2010, triggering another fall in the prices of risky assets. In the UK, for example, any return to a normal monetary policy will almost inevitably imply another fall in the housing market, which is currently propped up by ultra-cheap mortgages.

Alternatively, central banks might prioritise financial stability over price stability and keep the monetary floodgates open for as long as possible. This, I believe, would cause the mother of all financial market crises – a bond market crash – to be followed by depression and deflation.

In other words, there is danger no matter how the central banks react. Successful monetary policy could be like walking along a perilous ridge, on either side of which lies a precipice of instability.

For all we know, there may not be a safe way down."

Homem prevenido vale por dois

Let's suppose that this really happens "German 'Wise Men' fear credit crunch in 2010"

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Como formular uma estratégia robusta capaz de lidar menos mal com esta turbulência?

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Quais as oportunidades e quais as ameaças?

Imaginem só o potencial da queda desta peça de dominó...

"Sweden prepares for financial collapse in Latvia and major bank losses at home" ... para gerar entropia.

Futurizar para desenhar hipóteses e aproveitar as oportunidades

No primeiro trimestre deste ano desenhei este mapa de relações de causa-efeito para facilitar uma discussão sobre hipotéticos cenários futuros para a indústria do calçado, que oportunidades e que ameaças podiam ser identificadas consoante a evolução de alguns factores que afectam o negócio.Uma das oportunidades que saltava à vista (no canto superior esquerdo) decorria desta lógica:
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• Uma situação económica negativa dificulta a obtenção de crédito. O aumento dessa dificuldade gera um aumento da dificuldade em importar calçado da Ásia. O aumento dessa dificuldade reforça a necessidade ou vantagem em aproveitar a proximidade entre a produção e o consumo.

Este artigo "Xmas Season Orders Don't Bode Well for Chinese Exporters" documenta os factos acima enunciados, relatados pelo lado chinês.
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"On the Pearl River Delta, China's major export base, orders at many shoemakers were already low as the situation has gone from bad to worse. According to China Business News, a European customer's sudden cancellation of an order for original high-end shoes at an unnamed company might cause that company's bankruptcy as it has already bought materials and entered production.
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The textile and garment industry has as little cause for optimism. Zhong Haoshen, assistant general manager of the Textile Import & Export Corporation of Guangdong Province, says that in the current export situation, customer risks have increased. Previously, his company bought export credit insurance only for orders from emerging markets such as in the Middle East and Africa to reduce losses when customers cancelled orders or refused to pay. Now it is insuring against losses from European and American markets. Many small businesses, however, can not afford the premiums."