- "When Will The Recovery Begin? Never." e sobretudo aquele trecho "The X marks a brand new track -- a new economy. What will it look like? Nobody knows. All we know is the current economy can't "recover" because it can't go back to where it was before the crash. So instead of asking when the recovery will start, we should be asking when and how the new economy will begin."
- "This is not a recession" e sobretudo ""Don't think of our current economic crisis as a recession. Instead, think of it as a recalibration.Everything is different now.If you think of it as a recession, you may be tempted to "hunker down" and wait for the economy to cycle back. If you think of it as a recalibration, you will be motivated to focus on what you have to do differently, since everything is different now. The way your business generates results is different, now. Your customers think differently, now. Your customers care about different things, now. Your customers act differently, now. Your customers may actually be different people, now. Customers aren't disposable anymore; more than ever, you have to create sustainable customer relationships. Everything is different now. I'm posting this on January 7, 2009. One thing I'm convinced of is that the world I am working in today is different from any world I have ever done business in. The world has been reset. We can no longer look at the "LY" column on reports to use last year as a benchmark for what will happen this year."
- "Acordar as moscas que estão a dormir (parte XXVII)" onde se fala da quebra de 20% na colecta de impostos em Portugal, quando se compara 2008 com 2009.
E se estamos mesmo num mundo novo (coisa em que acredito)?
O ecossistema que existia, assente não na energia solar mas nos ienes baratos e no endividamente compulsivo, colapsou.
Aconteceu o mesmo há 65 milhões de anos... pelos vistos um meteoro terá chocado com a terra algures na zona do actual Iucatão, as espécies mais poderosas, as espécies maiores, as espécies dominantes... incapazes de se adaptarem pereceram.
Como é que o nosso país se poderá adaptar a este cenário de recalibração com tantos direitos adquiridos?
Haverá possibilidade de actuar e adaptarmo-nos, ou teremos de esperar pelo ponto da singularidade, pela implosão real, para fazer o reset e avançar para um Portugal pós-Abril de 1974 2.0?
Edward Hugh escreve isto sobre Espanha no Facebook, e Espanha apesar de tudo parece estar em melhor situação que Portugal:
"But the real problem is with the level of indebtedness of the population, Spain is now as dependent on exports as Germany is, but currently runs a current account deficit of about 8 percent of GDP.
So Spain needs a crash course policy to jump start exports and investment in export industries. But this means a large change in prices, and this isn't going to happen, since no one even believes it is possible. So the economy will crash, like in an earthquake, maybe 12 to 18 months from now, when the government can no longer raise money. (E nós por cá, quanto mais meses teremos?)
Meantime Zapatero twiddles his thumbs. That is what I am angry about. The explosion when this economy finally blows will rock Spain, let's just hope it won't rock the whole eurozone with it.!"
Será que alguém vai falar disto durante a próxima campanha eleitoral?