Outra vez a receita do costume

A propósito do comentário do Bruno Fonseca:

"analisando os dados sectoriais, o grande destaque, a meu ver, é para o segmento plásticos. um crescimento de 10,5% em 2013 é fenomenal! pensar que em 10 anos este sector teve a evolução que teve é absurdo quase. e mantém-se essa pujança, e anunciam-se novos investimentos. fenomenal."

 Recordei-me desta história que li há pouco tempo:

"That’s what Andrew Liveris, the CEO of Dow Chemical, demonstrated when he bet the future of his business on the acquisition of Rohm and Haas in July 2008. Liveris saw changes brewing in the chemicals industry. Looking outside in and future back, he realized that sooner or later the playing field would tilt away from Dow’s long-held strengths. For decades it had been the dominant player in the commodities chemical business, processing crude oil into a range of petrochemicals sold to a multitude of industries. But new players from Asia and the Middle East were coming into the industry. At the same time, oil producers were getting interested in businesses that processed their raw materials. Liveris imagined how a direct competitor like SABIC, whose majority shareholder is the Saudi Arabian government, might combine with a Saudi Arabian oil producer’s drive for vertical integration. (Moi ici: Essa foi uma das diferenças que senti na minha vida profissional. Entre 1987 e 1993 estive ligado à indústria química de polímeros e nunca vi nada a sério a vir de marcas associadas aos países produtores de petróleo no Médio Oriente. Havia alguma coisa do México e da Venezuela... e até de Israel. Em 2003, voltei ao mundo dos polímeros ao fazer consultoria para uma empresa. E a marca SABIC entrou no meu vocabulário). He concluded that advantages in access to and pricing of crude would make it all but impossible for Dow to retain its number one position in the low-margin commodities business. Because of its pricing disadvantage, Dow couldn’t win in the new game, and at some point the company’s market value would decline. Liveris saw a brighter future for Dow in higher-margin specialty products. To win in that area, it would have to strengthen its limited capability. This would be the very essence of a big bet, requiring Dow to radically shrink its mainstay business in favor of something that was only a minor part of its business. And the bet had to be made quickly, ahead of the competition and before Dow’s market value took a nosedive. The Rohm and Haas acquisition would shore up Dow’s capabilities in specialty chemicals, but at $18.8 billion the all-cash deal required more than Dow had. Now Liveris had to really stick his neck out, tapping out Dow’s resources and patching together financing. To fill the gap, he signed an agreement for a joint venture with Kuwait’s state-run Petrochemical Industries Company (PIC), which would infuse Dow with $9 billion to partly finance the deal. It was the first joint venture between the two parties, and Liveris’s plan to acquire Rohm and Haas hinged on its success. Liveris had the stomach to make the strategic bet, which rested precariously on the deal with PIC.
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Today specialty chemicals make up about two-thirds of Dow’s revenue, up from 50 percent before the merger, and Liveris says he is aiming to tilt the mix toward 80 percent.
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If Liveris hadn’t been thinking outside in and future back, if he hadn’t had the courage to acknowledge that control of crude oil by foreign governments would favor Dow’s competitors, he would not have seen the need to make a sudden move, especially when he did. He positioned the company for the new game that was just beginning to take shape, not the old game Dow had already played. And while Dow’s move caused others in the industry to reconsider their positioning and competitive edge, it was far enough ahead that it didn’t have to fight its way through a bidding war. Earnings have become less volatile since then: Dow was able to raise prices 5 percent in 2011, which more than offset increases in purchased feedstock and energy costs."

É voltar ao esquema:

E perceber que existe uma vantagem competitiva clara no mundo das commodities, o preço mais baixo, e perceber que nunca poderemos jogar essa cartada com vantagem e, por isso, o melhor é preparar uma saída em estilo e procurar outros negócios.

Trechos retirados de "Global tilt: leading your business through the great economic power shift " de Ram Charan.

Jogadores de bilhar amador

"Goals are the destination you want to take your business to. Once stated clearly and communicated to the organization, goals align people's energy, and when they're linked to rewards, as they usually are, they have a powerful effect on people's behavior. Goals set the tone for decisions and actions that follow and greatly influence the business results that get delivered. Many leaders think setting goals is simple and straightforward, but in fact, selecting the right set of goals is the ultimate juggling act. The goals have to be of the right type and magnitude to be both achievable as well as motivational.
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With the goals came the essential outline of actions about how they will be achieved: (Moi ici: Tantas empresas em que quem manda não percebe isto... definem objetivos de forma vaga, escritos em cubos de gelo ou em nevoeiro e, depois, esperam atingi-los sem mudar nada)
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There's a know-how to setting the right goals, in the right combination, with the right time frame, and at the right level. You can't set goals by looking in the rearview mirror at what was accomplished last year and adjust this year's numbers accordingly, and you can't go by what is being projected for the industry or the economy overall. Goals should reflect the opportunities that lie ahead (Moi ici: Tão difícil, o passado é tão poderoso, já se gastou tanto com ele que se torna difícil cortar-lhe o financiamento na esperança de que o mundo volte ao que era. Tão difícil assumir que são um custo afundado, enterrá-los e seguir em frente) and what is possible for your business as it goes forward. You have to choose more than one goal to keep the organization in balance, and the goals don't all have to be financial and quantitative. There will always be tailwinds and headwinds that will help you reach the goals faster or slow you down, but the goals must be clearly defined with specific time frames at the start. Then you must be willing to adjust them as the world changes and the opportunities and organizational capabilities expand or contract. While choosing only one goal distorts the business, choosing multiple goals poses its own mental challenge. You have to dig deep to be sure the goals are internally consistent." (Moi ici: Tão difícil, pensamos por partes e como jogadores de bilhar amador)

Trechos retirados de "Know-how" de Ram Charan.

"Onde podemos ganhar?"

"Foi trabalhar para uma empresa de desenvolvimento de resorts, que faliu em apenas três anos. Quando o CEO e o CFO saíram repentinamente, ele deu por si como responsável pelo desafio. Foi uma fase angustiante da sua vida, mas percebeu, uma manhã, que não estava a fazer as perguntas certas.
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Perguntava: "Que custos podemos cortar?"
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Percebeu que era melhor perguntar: "Onde podemos ganhar? Era uma forma completamente diferente de pensar sobre as coisas e responder a esta pergunta iluminou o seu caminho. A sua forma de pensar também mudou durante esse período. Depois de observar as consequências mais perversas, nunca mais se iludiu com os factos da situação. Também não voltou a pensar que as coisas melhorariam sozinhas nem a ser optimista sem razão, julgando que as coisas, de alguma forma, poderiam funcionar.
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Onde podemos ganhar? Onde não podemos ganhar?"

O truque é deixar de pensar que só cortar vai ser, é a solução. O truque é pensar onde se pode fazer a diferença: com quem e com o quê e como.
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Cortar é trabalhar o denominador, ganhar é trabalhar o numerador, a eficácia, a co-criação de valor.
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Trechos retirados de "Know-how" de Ram Charan, um livro que li em 2007 e que resolvi voltar a reler.

Não é o que nos acontece que conta, é a forma como decidimos encarar o que nos acontece

Continuando a nossa leitura de "Islands of Profit in a Sea of Red Ink" de Jonathan Byrnes.
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"Recession Opportunities":
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"Recession; is this the worst of times or the best of times?

The answer is both. Difficult times bring difficult problems to all managers, but they also create rare opportunities for renewing change.
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Consider cost-cutting. In recession, revenues fall, cash is depleted, and stock prices plummet. In most companies, the instinctive reaction is “all hands on deck” cutting costs. The problem with cost-cutting, however, is two-fold: managers often do it wrong, and cost-cutting is not enough.
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Managers charged with cost-cutting in recessionary times all too often focus inordinately on short-term incremental gains, and miss major strategic opportunities.
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What are the implications for cost-cutting? It means that there is a bad way and a good way to cut costs.
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The bad way is to cut across the board (“let’s get inventory and travel expenses down…”). The good way is to look very carefully at your company and identify the winners and losers in terms of profitability and growth potential. The key is to shift resources systematically from the losers to the winners.
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This will enable you to lock in and nurture the profitable portion of your business, and to find and land more high-potential business. In the vernacular, you should “shoot one, promote one.”
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Opportunity for change
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It turns out that economic difficulties present a critical opportunity to drive progressive change in a company.
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When my readers confirmed that the profitability pattern I wrote about was so widespread, I called a number of top executives to ask a simple question, “Why aren’t you doing anything about it?”
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The answer varied a bit from individual to individual, but the essence was the same: it’s too hard to move a company to change when it’s doing well. This was a dilemma. It was very hard for executives to execute fundamental change, even when they knew that it would create major lasting improvements.
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Recession changes all of this. It is ironic that difficult economic times present one of the most important opportunities to drive renewing change in a company. In difficult times, with the company in jeopardy, managers throughout the company are very worried. It is precisely at this time that they will be most receptive to initiatives and change. Importantly, the same is true for customers and suppliers."
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Claro que quem recorre a apoios e subsídios adia a necessidade de se re-inventar. Recordo sempre o caso da Pirelli e a introdução de "Confronting Reality" de Larry Bossidy e Ram Charan:
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“To confront reality is to recognize the world as it is, not as you wish it to be, and have the courage to do what must be done, not what you’d like to do.”
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"The most widespread unrealistic behavior when the game changes drastically is to violate the First Law of Holes (when you're in one, stop digging). People redouble their efforts to do waht they know best. They often achieve heroic results - which are, alas, almost as often pointless, because they fail to confront the new realities.”

Entre a perspectiva clientes e a perspectiva interna (parte II)

A alienação, o stress do momento presente, a incapacidade para questionar a realidade, a ausência de locus de controlo no interior tudo se conjuga para evitar reflexões deste tipo:
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"Nobody bats a thousand. But when you keep losing sales despite having great products and services, it’s time to take a step back. You have to reconsider what you’re trying to accomplish and how you’re going about doing it. In fact, it might be time to reinvent the way you sell.”

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Já reparou nos descontos que os comerciais.. ou direi antes os vendedores, têm de fazer para conseguir uma venda? Porquê? O produto não presta? A concorrência oferece melhor? O cliente só valoriza o preço? É o cliente certo?

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“Your customers want you to know how their business works, so you, the supplier, can help them make it work better. Here’s the catch: you won’t be able to do that with your traditional sales approach.”

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“The heart of the new approach to selling is an intense focus on the prosperity of your customers.”

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“This ability to create value for customers will differentiate you in a crowded marketplace, and you will be paid a fair price for it – one that is commensurate with the value customers perceive they are getting and the value you do in fact provide. I call this new approach value creation selling”

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“Value creation selling entails profound changes in the sales force itself. Salespeople are no longer solo operators.”

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“the salesperson must develop a very clear and specific definition of the customer’s business needs. They must tap the creativity and expertise of their colleagues to shape some alternative offerings to satisfy those needs, and test those alternatives by engaging with people in the customer’s organization, but the salesperson takes the lead. Finally, he or she must refine the value proposition and be prepared to demonstrate, especially to key decisions makers, how the customer’s business stands to benefit.”

Charan fala de uma abordagem diferente para a realização da actividade comercial, trata-se de um investimento muito mais profundo e moroso. Quem são os seus clientes-alvo? Qual a proposta de valor que lhes vai oferecer? Quem são os comerciais que tem consigo que podem abraçar uma abordagem deste género?


Trechos retirados do livro "What the Customer Wants You to Know - How Everybody Needs to Think Differently About Sales" de Ram Charan.

Entre a perspectiva clientes e a perspectiva interna (parte I)

Ao montar, ou ao melhorar, um modelo de negócio há que começar por definir os clientes-alvo e por desenhar a proposta de valor.
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Depois, há que equacionar todo o trabalho de desenvolvimento da abordagem aos clientes.
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Encontrei no livro "What the Customer Wants You to Know - How Everybody Needs to Think Differently About Sales" de Ram Charan um conjunto de ideias e pistas a reter.

Não sacrificar a marca

Um importante conselho de Ram Charan no seu livro “Leadership in the Era of Economic Uncertainty", nestes tempos de crise: não sacrificar a marca, não estragar num ápice o que tanto custou a desenvolver:

“Brand identity is extremely valuable to your company as a long-term differentiator. Although there is clearly a major trend for consumers to move from branded products to private-label products, brand will remain a valuable asset. You need to be sure the customer’s experience with your product lives up to the promise of the brand. Do not give in to the temptation to sacrifice identity by cheapening the product.

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A brand reputation takes a long time to build. It is something you cannot afford to lose.”

Um exemplo do poder das marcas "The Enduring Power of Brand: Leica vs Panasonic" (por isto é que um japonês com que trabalhei nos anos 90 do século passado, apesar de conhecer alguns problemas dos Alfa-Romeo (era a sua profissão descobri-los) adorava e invejava a marca.

Honestidade e credibilidade

Acerca do comportamento dos gestores de topo durante este período de crise que atravessamos, Ram Charan escreve no seu livro "Leadership in the Era of Economic Uncertainty":
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You have to instill courage and optimism in others by putting reality on the table and addressing it decisively. You need to show a path forward that is credible and concrete and enroll other change agents who have the courage to make tough calls without sacrificing values. If you tell half-truths, sugarcoat bad news, or fail to understand the realities of the toxic environment, people won't trust you. Worse, they will miss the urgency."
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Pois ...
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"Nobody can be certain about the business environment and its direction. How can you tell people what you believe when you can't be confident that it is right? You can't fake it or bluff - anybody can test your ideas by googling. The only answer is intellectual honesty and humility. Your authority derives not from omniscience but from your ability to facilitate understanding and solutions. Level with people: tell them how you see the world, acknowledge the limits of your understanding, and ask them for their own views. Doing this may take courage, but together you can piece together better probabilities than any one person can."
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Pois ... o que é que os políticos da oposição e da situação nos vêm dizendo?
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O que se disse no ano passado quando se decidiu baixar o IVA? Quais as justificações que foram avançadas?

Parte VII – Zapatero e os outros.

Neste postal Parte VI – Zapatero e os outros. escrevemos:
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"Os próximos quatro anos vão ser disputados e vividos a um outro nível, num novo mundo e Zapatero pertence ao mundo que está a acabar. Quatro anos como primeiro ministro no mundo que acabou, moldaram os seus compromissos com pessoas e instituições, moldaram as suas intuições e da equipa que o rodeia. Não vai ser fácil para ele recalibrar a mente, não vai ser fácil para ele evitar aqueles canais sinápticos automatizados, involuntários, gerados no mundo que acabou (como a gente na cozinha, dois anos depois de mudarmos a localização da tesoura para aparar o peixe, intuitivamente vamos ao antigo local à procura dela… só depois é que racionalizamos e vamos ao novo local)."
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O que é que encontro no último livro de Ram Charan "Leadership in the Era of Economic Uncertainty", publicado já durante o ano de 2009, é tremendamente familiar:
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"Yet the hard truth is that CEOs, business unit managers, and country managers who have managed successfully during the prolonged period of good times may not be up to the challenges confronting them today. A CEO's dominant psychology in good times tends to be aggressive, optimistic, and oriented toward everincreasing profits and revenue growth.
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When things are going well, there can be a tendency for CEO's to become arrogant know-it-alls.
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Some let their optimism lead them into taking substantial risks by using leverage, debt, and off-balance-sheet financing."
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"In good times, those things don't matter a lot. In tough times, they can be fatal."
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"We get in trouble when we forget the basics.We get out of trouble when we remember the basics"

Tom Peters escreveu recentemente acerca desta crise em que vivemos:
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""We get in trouble when we forget the basics.We get out of trouble when we remember the basics.We stay out of trouble when we become perpetually "insane" about the basics."
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Um dos fundamentais mais importantes que conheço, resume-se bem numa rima:
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Volume is Vanity;
Profit is Sanity.
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Sou um apreciador das ideias de Hermann Simon, por exemplo no seu livro "Manage for Profit Not For Market Share", daí que me faça sempre impressão o crescimento cego, ainda que à custa da rentabilidade.
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Bom, voltando a Tom Peters: "We get in trouble when we forget the basics.We get out of trouble when we remember the basics.We stay out of trouble when we become perpetually "insane" about the basics."
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Também Ram Charan, no seu livro "Leadership in the Era of Economic Uncertainty", publicado já durante o ano de 2009, aconselha:
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"Your focus must shift from the income statement to the balance sheet. Protecting cash flow is the most important challenge almost all companies face today whether they realize it or not.
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Pursuit of revenue growth must give way to understanding the cash implications of everything your company does.
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Because lack of liquidity will be an ever-present lethal threat, you will have to manage conservatively, lowering your cash breakeven point as rapidly as possible for the worst-case scenario.
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After spending their careers in a single-minded pursuit of growth, business leaders have to adjust their mentality. Some CEOs are telling their people that they should go for market share against competitors whose conditios could be unraveling. You should pursue that kind of growth only if it is profitable and cash-efficient.
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One CEO I know surrendered 8% of his volume when he raised prices, but the new prices stuck and the result was the security of improved cash flow. It was a risky move. I recommend that in this environment you only raise prices on your least profitable customers. Even then, be prepared to walk away from those customers if they balk.
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This is a time to narrow your focus and concentrate on the core of the business: the invaluable assets you can´t afford to lose. Choose the market segments and even the particular customers you will continue to serve, the products you will continue to make, and the suppliers you will continue to buy from and eliminate the rest."
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O que é que andamos a pregar há 4 anos neste espaço?
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The basics, os fundamentais!!!
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A concentração no que é essencial.