Acerca de Mongo

"When Voodoo launched, Friefeld said that the team began to realize that they were serving two different markets. The first market is made up of engineering companies that are launching new products and which need to produce a few thousand products for early testing and validation.Voodoo works with these firms to produce the first few thousand enclosures and other parts for their designs. The second market consists of marketing materials and other aesthetic products.
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How can a 3D printing company compete with the $162 billion injection molding market? Voodoo accomplished this by purchasing off-the-shelf 3D printers, which require very little up-front investment when compared to an industrial manufacturing operation. Running a series of print farms, Friefeld said that his startup is cost-competitive with injection molding for runs of up to 10,000 units. For print runs above that, it usually makes more economic sense to have parts made with injection molding.
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“With Voodoo, there’s no up-front investment,” Friefeld said.“We can get started with the file and get your part the next day, or 10,000 parts in two weeks. We’re fast and we have very little startup costs with our process.That’s all because we’re using 3D printers—digital manufacturing tools that can take in a digital file and produce a physical product with little human interaction. No tool, no tooling, no jigs, no fixtures. File in, product out.”
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“Ultimately, we will be producing low-volume runs of any manufactured product anywhere in the world,” Friefeld said.“[We’re] starting with plastic today, but we’ll eventually expand into other materials and processes built on top of these digital tools like 3D printers.”"

Isto encaixa perfeitamente na narrativa acerca da caminhada para esse novo mundo económico que designo por Mongo. Um mundo de diversidade e com cada vez menos necessidade de grandes séries.

Há algum tempo discutia-se numa empresa a necessidade de investir numa unidade toda automatizada, ao estilo 4.0, para se especializar na produção de grandes séries. Sinto que os escandalizei quando os tentei convencer a fazerem o contrário: investir numa nova unidade pequena, mas para se concentrar nas pequenas séries.

As empresas grandes pensam nas séries grandes e não dão a atenção suficiente às pequenas séries e a um outro estilo de marketing, de actividade comercial e de produção que requerem. Pensem no Director Comercial de uma empresa grande. Pensem no desafio que ele tem de enfrentar todos os anos de aumentar as vendas para ir ao encontro de objectivos de facturação muito ambiciosos. Pensem como o volume de vendas é muito mais fácil de medir que o lucro unitário obtido com essas mesmas vendas. Pensem como esse Director terá tendência a matar/asfixiar todos os projectos de novos produtos e serviços que não prometam pelo menos X de vendas rapidamente. Julgo que a única hipótese que uma empresa grande tem de fazer a transição para Mongo, é a de criar spinoffs e colocar gente apaixonada  e obrigada a passar fome de recursos, à frente desses projectos. (Interessante como esta referência a gente apaixonada me fez recordar este podcast recente de Nassim Taleb, "Nassim Nicholas Taleb on Work, Slavery, the Minority Rule, and Skin in the Game")


Trechos retirados de "Voodoo Automates 3D Printing to Take on Injection Molding"

Decisões de localização (parte II)

Parte I.

Na leitura final de "From Global to Local" de Finbarr Livesey encontrei uma série de trechos sobre decisões de localização com os quais concordo embora com algumas dúvidas:

[Moi ici: Primeiro algo sobre Mongo] "While new production technologies are not going to give us Star Trek like 'replicator' any time soon, they are enabling smaller factories to be  economically viable. They do this by lowering what is referred  to as minimum economic scale, the lowest volume of production for which the investment in the factory is financially viable. [Moi ici: Isto é Mongo a 100%. A democratização da produção]
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The simple view of production was that bigger is better: you offset large capital costs by having a factory that produces in high volume with extreme efficiency. The case for ever increasing sizes of factory hits barriers of coordination if the factories become too large and the level required to be efficient or cost competitive has fallen as additive manufacturing and other techniques have developed and improved their performance. [Moi ici: BTW, a seu tempo os políticos descobrirão isto mas só depois de provocar muito sofrimento com as escolas-cidade, os hospitais-cidade, os tribunais-cidade, as esquadras-cidade, ...] A key implication of techniques like additive manufacturing is that they remove the need for specialised components such as moulds or forms to be made specific to the product working its way down the assembly line. [Moi ici: Pesquisar a palavra japonesa "seru"] As well as saving cost and time by not having to make these specialised pieces, it also means that a factory can more easily make a variety of products. Rather than thinking of the investment in a factory being tied to one product, the costs can be offset against the income generated from a series of products, hence a lower minimum economic scale for each product. With lower scale, the likelihood of having a greater number of smaller factories instead of a small number of extremely large factories goes up. And as that happens the factories are going to be geographically dispersed, lowering the number of trade movements necessary to get a product to customers in different countries.
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[Moi ici: Agora sobre decisões de localização] The second level of change is a strengthening of the regionalisation of trade. The temptation is to work at the extremes — everything is global or everything is local. This misses the subtleties that are needed in industrial organisation and the diversity that exists in manufacturing. Regionalisation will be driven by the balance of forces between the scale required to have efficiencies and the desire to reduce time to customer and the costs of being in different countries simultaneously.[Moi ici: Sinto que há muito de verdade neste último trecho. Unidades produtivas muito eficientes a trabalhar para todo o mundo produzindo artigos fáceis de transportar e pouco dependentes da vontade do cliente na sua versão final. Unidades produtivas ágeis e mais pequenas, talvez a trabalhar para mercados até 3/4 dias de camião, mais próximas do lugar de consumo, permitindo produções com séries curtas, reposições rápidas, alterações de design e iterações rápidas. Unidades produtivas junto do consumo para permitir customização, interacção, co-criação ]
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It is worth noting that even though the declining importance of distance for trade has been accepted as a stylised fact for many years. distance has always moderated trade. [Moi ici: Ghemawat tem um livro com uns gráficos espectaculares que ilustram esta realidade] The further away from one another two countries are, the smaller the level of trade we would expect to see between them. A recent review of over one hundred academic papers on the effect of distance on trade indicates that the average effect means that to per cent increase in distance lowers bilateral trade by about 9 per cent? Distance continues to matter even with absolute transport costs falling and increasing digital interconnection around the world. [Moi ici: Depois disto tudo tenho dúvidas num aspecto. Se a digitalização e a conectividade reduzem as fronteiras, como conciliar tudo isto com a técnica alemã de procurar clientes-alvo independentemente da geografia? Acredito que a diferenciação que trabalha para nichos e que não se baseia na interacção mas antes na vantagem tecnológica ou de design crescerá baseada na conectividade digital sem olhar à geografia]
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With smaller factories being economically viable and tooling costs falling due to increased use of techniques like additive manufacturing, companies can produce for the different regions of the world independently rather than attempting to have a global product. [Moi ici: Teremos pois, é fácil de prever para os próximos anos, a criação de unidades produtivas de multinacionais para servirem continentes e não o mundo]
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In a regionalised scenario a company may not have its supply chain and final assembly all in the country in which it will be selling its products. They can organise themselves and their suppliers across the region. However, in some cases that won't be the best way to be organised, for example if time is really an issue. If there cannot be a lag of, say, a week to get goods from Mexico to the east coast of the USA, then the company will need to have at least final assembly in the country of purchase, if not more of the supply chain feeding that assembly process for your product.
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At the third level within regions we are likely to see agglomeration or clustering effects. These clusters arise as there are positive effects for companies to be close to other companies im similar sectors.
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As we move into a world where products have shorter journeys to get to us, where factories are smaller and there are more of them, and where is great uncertainty about what work we will be doing, the other elements of globalization will also continue to evolve. Nothing in the trends we have described will by themselves reduce or block digital globalization."

Acerca de Mongo (parte III)

Parte I e parte II.

"One key reason why AM reduces the minimum efficient scale in a market lies in the fact that there are no fixed costs of making specialized molds, tools, or equipment that have to be amortized over a large production volume. As long as a digital model is fed into the printer, the machine can produce any feasible product without having to first create a costly production-grade mold or tool. The technology thus allows scaling capacity more closely to the needs of the market. No large investments are needed for the lumpy increases in capacity often experienced in TM systems.[Moi ici: TM = Traditional manufacturing]
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Whereas TM often requires a high utilization rate for efficient production, AM can be easily shut down temporarily, or capacity can be redirected to the production of different types of goods. As a result, whereas traditional plants that produce for the mass market are much larger than those operating in the same industry producing customized products, AM plants can be very small without a loss of efficiency.
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Similarly, benefits of marketing and sales of products accrue to large companies that operate in large markets. The need to reach markets located at great distance from the site of manufacturing is drastically lessened under AM, which allows selling to consumers who are in proximity to the producer. Proximity adds greater transparency for the consumer. Social responsibility is enhanced by selling products in the community in which they are produced, since workers and consumers overlap in terms of social and even family ties. [Moi ici: Outra série de tópicos que costumamos abordar - proximidade, interacção, co-criação, cadeias de fornecimento muito mais curtas e mais responsive e colaborativas] This is an important consideration because large firm size and brand visibility often act as a repository of reputation and trust that are costly to maintain. Local firms using AM do not require expensive means for generating and maintaining reputation as do large firms located in faraway places.
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Distribution management is a related source of economies of scale, requiring complex logistics for avoiding the inefficiencies associated with sending half- empty containers or half-empty trucks over long distances. AM will allow more on-demand manufacturing closer to the customer, reducing the need for scale to achieve efficient distribution. Transportation needs will be concentrated in the more aggregated supply of raw materials.
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smaller AM firms will not only have lower costs of organization due to their lower possible scale but will also be organized differently than larger TM firms. There will be fewer layers of management, employees will enjoy more discretion in decision making, there will be less monitoring, and there will be fewer complex incentive schemes.
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The company will break up its large plants into many smaller plants. Each of these smaller plants is cheaper to run because of the lower cost of organization. These smaller plants will be relocated closer to customers in order to economize on transportation, to be able to respond rapidly to changing local demand, and to better collaborate with customers. The drastic simplification of the supply chain and the local orientation of the plants will limit or eliminate the economic benefits from having centralized purchasing and sales and marketing. The benefits of holding together the large company, once most functions are decentralized or outsourced, may well disappear. If the brand is important, the company may switch to a franchising alternative, like many retail shops, or break up altogether and find alternatives to branding. [Moi ici: Foi aqui que dei comigo a pensar que um híbrido do modelo de negócio da Logoplast pode ser bem sucedido]
The organizational landscape may therefore change drastically under AM. The degree of concentration in many markets may decline precipitously. [Moi ici: Isto é o que prevejo para Mongo desde o momento zero. Infelizmente creio que não será fácil. As empresas grandes, conluíadas com os estados e a sua ganância por impostagem, vão criar barreiras a esta transição. Vai dar sangue. Imaginam as EDP deste mundo implodirem sem dar luta?] Organizations can be substantially smaller and more geographically dispersed. The distribution of occupations will also change: fewer production and assembly workers; and low-skilled store attendants, packaging workers, and many transportation workers may be largely replaced by employees who design and consult with customers to sell and produce customized goods. Many companies may become locally owned, possibly by their employees, as it is the case with many professional organizations of architects, designers, consultants, lawyers, engineers, and physicians."[Moi ici: Os especialistas do tal "bairro cibernauta". Ter uma printer 3D vai ser fácil, mas ser especialista, mas ser capaz de dar conselhos, co-criar, é o essencial. Talvez o tal modelo de cooperativas. Talvez o tal derivado da Logoplast: especialistas têm as printers 3D e compram as matérais-primas e alugam a operação a especialistas que interagem com os consumidores]

Tudo em sintonia com o que tenho escrito acerca da hipótese Mongo!!!

Acerca de Mongo (parte I)

Em Novembro de 2007 usei o termo Mongo pela primeira vez aqui no blogue em "A cauda longa e o planeta Mongo".

Ao longo dos anos em mais de 1000 postais tenho desenvolvido o conceito de Mongo.

Mongo significa:

• cada vez mais tribos
• cada vez menos blockbusters
• empresas mais pequenas
• cooperativas de trabalhadores-especialistas a substituírem as empresas
• fim do emprego à la século XX
• fim do eficientismo
• democratização da produção
• co-criação
• interacção
• customização
• arte em vez de vómito industrial
• pequenas séries, flexibilidade, rapidez, proximidade
• refluxo da globalização
• cuidado com Sines e o canal do Panamá

Assim, qual não foi o meu espanto quando ontem de manhã bem cedo:

aquela viagem de metro prá Póvoa em q descobrimos q a California Managment Review compilou o q escrevo no blog sobre Mongo e escreveu artigo

— Carlos P da Cruz (@ccz1) May 4, 2017

No número de Março de 2017 da California Management Review em "Decentralization and Localization of Production: The Organizational and Economic Consequences of Additive Manufacturing..." encontro esta introdução:

"The future organizational landscape may change drastically by mid-century as a result of widespread implementation of 3D printing. This article argues that global will turn local; mega (factories, ships, malls) will become mini; long supply chains will shrink; many jobs will be broadened to combine design, consulting, sales, and production roles; and large organizations will make room for smaller ones."

Até que enfim que alguém corrobora a minha visão de que Mongo não vai ser gigantes-friendly:

• Sou de outra opinião
• O impacte tecnológico a montante
• Acerca do futuro da impressão 3D (parte II)

Continua.

H2H

Há dias numa empresa falava-se em B2B e das suas diferenças para o B2C quando alguém disse que tinha lido algo sobre o H2H (human to human).

Rapidamente a minha mente abstraiu-se da conversa e, por momentos, voou para a metáfora de Mongo.

Em Mongo a explosão de tribos, a banalização da customização, a democratização da produção e a necessidade da co-criação irá levar-nos para o regresso dos artesãos, dos alfaiates e modistas em todos os aspectos da nossa vida.

Assim, as relações económicas vão tender cada vez mais para uma relação de uma pessoa, cliente, com outra pessoa, ou equipa, artesão(s). Ou seja, de humano para humano H2H.

Acerca do futuro da impressão 3D (parte II)

Parte I.

"we exemplarily constructed four extreme scenarios by selecting the two projections which showed the lowest level of consensus among the experts (both have an interquartile range of 4.0): the impact of additive manufacturing on firm's business models (Projection 8) and on consumer distribution channels (Projection 12). We built two development continuums, spanning between the trajectories expressed by these two projections. Fig. 6 illustrates the scenario axes and resulting scenarios. The qualitative expert comments helped us characterize the resulting scenarios in more detail.

The horizontal axis derives from Projection 8: For those experts who agree on it, additive manufacturing can be regarded as just another production technology requiring novel knowledge and skills, but mainly improving the operational excellence of a company. While some operations may change drastically, the operating model of the company will remain the same. For those rejecting this projection, however, established business models will be disrupted by additive manufacturing, demanding incumbents to make radical changes.
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The vertical axis builds on Projection 12, which covers one of the most frequently debated implications of additive manufacturing. The experts believing in this projection foresee a strong change in consumer behavior: Instead of acquiring physical products, consumers will utilize online databases to download product designs for self-printing, either purchasing the file (similar to downloading a music file in an online music store) or using a sharing model with open-source designs. Experts rejecting this projection, however, expect that also in 2030, products produced via additive manufacturing will be purchased as physical objects via established online or offline channels.
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Combining these two axes, we derive four possible scenarios. The extreme Scenario 1 combines the exploitation model with a new distribution model. Here, a company uses the efficiency of selling online files instead of exporting products to test new foreign markets, but also to cover niches of demand in established regions. Once a market is established, however, the products will be sold via a conventional business model (moving to Scenario 3). Scenario 2 combines the two extreme positions of an exploration strategy with a distribution model via online file-sharing. In this model, the business model of the company shifts fundamentally. A former manufacturer becomes a pure “designer” (providing the digital print files only). The core job of the company here is to guarantee the “3D printability” of the files. For its revenue model, it has to utilize new forms of intellectual property protection to allow for value capture.[Moi ici: E qual a vantagem de ser empresa?]
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Scenario 3 is the most conservative setup where additive manufacturing is mainly used to support an established business. The case of spare parts, as discussed before, can be placed here. Another option is to utilize additive manufacturing for the manufacture of niche products which are not economically feasible with conventional manufacturing models. Finally, Scenario 4 builds on the idea of mass customization, i.e. providing an individual product for every consumer, but with mass production efficiency. The business model of the company, hence, shifts drastically. Instead of forecasting product demand and producing it on stock, all operational activities are purely reactive, staring with the individual demand of each single customer."

Pessoalmente sinto-me atraído por um modelo que se assemelhe aos alfaiates e modistas do passado. "Qualquer pessoa" podia fazer um vestido/fato em casa. No entanto, as pessoas recorriam a um alfaiate/modista onde tinham oportunidade de conjugar (co-criar) o seu gosto, as suas dimensões, com a expertise d@ técnic@.

Acerca do futuro da impressão 3D (parte I)

Uma lista de tendências para 2030 prevista por experts acerca da impressão 3D:

Quanto às mais prováveis:

"The scenario cluster for the most probable future contains those projections  evaluated by the expert panel with the highest probability of occurrence in 2030 and a sufficient amount of certainty between the expert evaluations. For a narrow version of the most probable scenario we took those projections (5, 14, 16, and 17) showing both a high degree of certainty among experts' evaluations (three projectionswith interquartile range larger than 2.0, and onewith 2.5) and having a sufficient probability of occurrence (larger than 55%). If looking at a broader scenario, Projections 9 and 12 can also be included, which show a relatively high estimated probability of occurrence, but their estimations are fraught with uncertainty (interquartile range of 3.0 and 4.0, respectively)."

Continua.

Trechos retirados de "Predicting the future of additive manufacturing: A Delphi study on economic and societal implications of 3D printing for 2030"

Uma novela sobre Mongo (parte XIV)

 Parte I, parte II, parte III, parte IV, parte V, parte VI, parte VII, parte VIII, parte IX, parte X, parte XI, parte XII e parte XIII.

Outra tendência de Mongo em sintonia com a explosão de tribos e de individualidade:

"Bigger than the internet: 3D printing...
Given that we’ve lived through global network formation, we need to open our minds about what 3D printing will do. It’s changed everything in our physical, human-created world. It’s created a fragmentation of the production process to the point where significant parts of human output are decentralised permanently.
In this sense our world becomes one, where everything is information, where knowledge is converted into actual objects and where the internet crosses the chasm from the virtual into the physical.
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The fact that this part of the revolution is physical puts it directly into the ‘bigger than the internet’ category. All the web has done so far is change information distribution; that is, shift how we get data. Once we shift how we make things it starts to impact where and how we live as much as the industrial revolution did to the agricultural age. It affects what we can make. It affects what everyone owns because they will own their own version of everything. It affects significantly how people and companies will make money.
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If you stop and take a look around the room you’re in right now you’ll notice that the number of widgets that come from factories is astounding. These kinds of widget will very soon be made in the home. But isn’t that the point? Who would want to own anything that’s designed for the masses when we can have a bespoke version and make our own tweaks.
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We know we’re living through a change that’s human centric and giving the power back to the people. [Moi ici: Reparem bem na afirmação "change that’s human centric" e comparem com os receios do mainstream, o medo da automatização, o medo do desemprego em massa, o medo da ascensão dos robots. O que defendemos aqui? Que a explosão de tribos em Mongo tornará muita da automatização incapaz de lidar com a customização. A interacção e a necessidade da proximidade para a co-criação requererão empresas mais pequenas e ... "every laptop will be a corporation"] The accumulation of these ingredients leads to a rapid penetration of technology. We already believe. We just need to be informed of what 3D printing can do for us.
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It’s clear that technology is disrupting industry and breaking down almost everything that was once mass. Just as large media has had to learn to share the stage with citizen journalism, the factory will soon be sharing the market with digital craftspeople operating out of their home. Desktop publishing is about to be joined by desktop manufacturing."

Trechos retirados de "The Great Fragmentation : why the future of business is small" de Steve Sammartino

China e Impressão 3D, os opostos de uma escala

"Over the past year, technology and sharing economy start-ups have continued their disruption of traditional industries
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Disrupter: 3D printers
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Industry threatened: Small component manufacturers and distributors
Reason why: Growing use of on-site 3D printing to make parts
Any concertgoer knows it is easier to print tickets than pick them up or hope they arrive in the post, writes Patrick McGee. Businesses will soon realise the same applies to spare parts, equipment and electronics.
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The explosion of 3D printers is expected to shake up entire supply chains, allowing companies to print much of what they need rather than order it, often from overseas.
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At the Munich show Electronica in November, Israeli start-up Nano Dimension showed how 3D printing would go well beyond making simple parts. The company’s desktop-sized Dragonfly printer can create multilayer printed circuit boards — the film-like boards found in smartphones and computers that allow signals and power to be transmitted.
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Amit Dror, chief executive, says the 3D printing of circuit boards would boost the research and development process for prototypes, allowing electronics companies to bring new products to market faster.
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“We think 3D printing will play a key role in changing the way the world designs and manufactures.”

Ontem no Twitter espantei-me com este tweet:

Scott @profgalloway at #DLD17: We don't need 3D printing, we have something called China.

— Anna Steiner (@EcoImQuadrat) January 16, 2017

A pessoa citada neste tweet não tem noção de que China e Impressão 3D são opostos de uma escala?

A China especializou-se em ser capaz de produzir de forma económica 1 milhão de itens iguais entre si.

A Impressão 3D vai permitir produzir de forma económica 1 milhão de itens todos diferentes entre si.

Trechos retirados de "Five industries under threat from technology".

Os riscos da estratégia (parte IV)

Parte I, parte II e parte III.

"When most of us think of disruption, innovative firms like Uber or Airbnb come quickly to mind. However, strictly speaking, Uber, for example, is not a disruptive innovation. Disruption describes a process whereby a smaller player with fewer resources is able to successfully challenge established incumbent businesses. They do so by targeting overlooked segments, offering more suitable functionality (frequently at a lower price). Incumbents typically ignore this move, and eventually new entrants move upmarket delivering the performance customers require, while preserving the advantages (chiefly lower cost) that drove their early success. Technically, Uber did neither of these, but that certainly hasn’t stopped it from forever altering the taxi industry.
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Rather than disruption, we could term the changes Uber and others are employing as “business model innovations,” but regardless of the terminology employed the fact remains, there are hungry (nay, starving) companies that you’ve never heard of,who are at this verymomentplotting to steal your market share. No industry is immune to this assault. Take shipping companies. They face a very unanticipated threat: 3D printing. As more manufacturers have the option to print parts and products in finished formonsite, shipments by air, sea, and roadway will plummet. It is estimated that as much as 41 percent of the air cargo business, 37 percent of ocean container shipments, and 25 percent of truck deliveries are vulnerable to 3D printing. Given the undeniable threat, it’s vital that organizations embrace agility and possess the ability to swiftly modify their business model based on new information."

Trecho retirado de "Objectives and Key Results: Driving Focus, Alignment, and Engagement with OKRs"

Século XXI vs século XX

Um texto sobre Mongo e muito em linha com o que aqui defendemos, "How We Will Kill Uber & Hijack the Internet of Things":

"Our third industrial revolution will be our last, according to Rifkin. I never say never, but he is confident this will mark the end of mass employment.
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But in Rifkin’s rosier view, “prosumers” will create and share physical products and services the same way we do WordPress posts today. “We’ll spend part of our day sharing, part of the day making money.”
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The most ambitious part of Jeremy’s vision is people will use tools like 3D printing, apps, and GPS to create cooperatives powerful enough to kill off Uber. Yes, kill off Uber."

Tudo coisas que aqui defendemos:

• o fim do emprego em massa criado pela revolução industrial do século XX;
• os prosumers;
• a democratização da produção;
• o fim da Uber.

O consumidor de Mongo (parte III)

Parte I e parte II.
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A parte I começa com:

"Connected technology and intelligent use of data have already enabled"

A tecnologia da produção em massa da revolução industrial com a electricidade e o comboio criaram o mercado de massas do século XX. Agora, novamente, as tecnologias do final do século XX e do inicio do século XXI permitiram o advento de Mongo, e esse advento permite que um novo tipo de consumidor apareça. E quanto mais esse consumidor aparece, mais ficamos todos weird, e mais Mongo se entranha. Olhando para as 5 categorias que caracterizam os consumidores de Mongo, avançadas nas partes I e II não fica difícil antever o bailado com a IoT, com as impressoras 3D, com o DIY, com as tribos, com os novos materiais, com os novos modelos de negócio, ...
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Uma co-evolução em que um diz mata e o outro diz esfola!

Portanto, cheira-me a futurologia da treta (parte II)

Parte I.
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Textos deste tipo "Why AI will break capitalism." cheiram-me a um novo estilo de marxismo. Volto a sublinhar a crença ingénua destes artigos na inteligência como o factor fundamental nos negócios, na economia. TRETA!!! E treta da grande:

"Putting aside the ethics for a second, AI is essentially a new form of inter-species slavery. Instead of relying on our fellow species, we’re creating automated, non-human slaves. AI are just cattle versions of intelligence (once is created/bred for meat, the other for intelligence).
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Rather than capital now being a source of ownership and minor wealth generation, it can now be a source of exponential wealth creation — simply because AI continuously evolves and builds upon itself. It’s unique because it isn’t a static capital item.
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AI isn’t just a static piece of IP. It’s capable of building entirely new monopolies, businesses and ‘things’ all by itself.
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What’s more likely is that when we create AI that is break point for capitalism. Any variable to success can be bought and sold, and that means for those who have wealth, they can buy success instead of creating it. It’s a shift in the ‘fairness’ of capitalism, and the reward for someone putting in effort. When capital can beat humans on thinking, it’s hard to create a marketplace that doesn’t resemble feudalism (albeit minus the harsh living conditions)."

Recordo o insucesso dos 4 prémio Nobel referidos na parte I.
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Até parece que a evolução na Terra criou uma espécie de Vulcanos. Duh!
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Por que é que não somos todos Spocks? Porque não basta a lógica e o QI para ter sucesso neste mundo, também é preciso experimentar e ter sorte.

“The world can only be grasped by action, not by contemplation.”

Gente que acredita que a Sandy vence o MacGyver. Gente que não percebe que com a concorrência imperfeita e sem marxianismo a estória é outra:

"MacGyver: Well, old Sandy sure has a mind of her own, doesn't she?
Jill: Yes, but she thinks like me. So I should be able to think it through and find her pattern, logically and rationally.
MacGyver: Without the emotion, right?
Jill: That's what gives her the edge. People and emotion can't get in her way.
MacGyver: Well, I say we trust our instincts—go with our gut. You can't program that. That's our edge."

Gente que acredita num mundo pré-determinado e que só está à espera de suficiente capacidade computacional para poder ser dominado. Ingenuidade perigosa.
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Prefiro acreditar na arte, na ingenuidade e na sorte.
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Prefiro acreditar em Mongo sem exércitos puros, racionais e uniformizados. Prefiro acreditar em tribos, em individualidade, em DIY, em p2p.

Portanto, cheira-me a futurologia da treta

A propósito de "If robots are the future of work, where do humans fit in?" algumas notas:

"you take the best and brightest 200 human beings on the planet, you scan their brains and you get robots that to all intents and purposes are indivisible from the humans on which they are based, except a thousand times faster and better.
...
These Ems, being superior at everything and having no material needs that couldn’t be satisfied virtually, will undercut humans in the labour market, and render us totally unnecessary."

Enquanto lia isto fiquei um pouco incrédulo com a crença algo absurda, IMHO, na importância do QI para ter sucesso. Juro que me recordei logo da LTCM e dos seus 4 prémios Nobel da Economia. Fundada em 1994 estoirou em 1997.

Depois, ainda me lembrei daquele conflito que ficou gravado para sempre na minha mente  MacGyver vs Sandy.

"We need to rethink our view of jobs and leisure – and quickly, if we are to avoid becoming obsolete"

Oh!
Ó!
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Como isto se enquadra com a minha visão de Mongo!!!
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Basta recuar a este postal desta semana "Mongo em grande". Como é que estes autores escrevem artigos com falhas básicas como esta? É mais combate político actual do que preocupação genuína com o futuro!!!
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Não somos nós que vamos ficar obsoletos em Mongo. Em Mongo, o que vai ficar obsoleto é essa criação do século XX: o emprego, o "job".
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Em Mongo, a democratização da produção levará a um estado em que cada um terá as máquinas que permitirão a sua produção pessoal, ou a sua produção a uma escala artesanal baseada na vantagem competitiva da arte.
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Portanto, cheira-me a futurologia da treta.

Mongo em grande

Há anos que escrevo sobre Mongo e a democratização da produção. Há anos que desconfio das empresas grandes de consultoria que falam da impressão 3D e escondem dos seus clientes, as empresas grandes, o que pode acontecer em termos de produção pessoal e produção das empresas mais pequenas. Por isso, em 2013 escrevi "Ponto de vista".
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Na última semana tenho lido uma série de informação sobre o tema:

• "The Rise of Personal Fabrication" (muito bom!)
• "FACTORY@HOME - THE EMERGING ECONOMY OF PERSONAL MANUFACTURING"
• "Could 3D Printing Change the World?"

Democratização da produção

"Just as the democratization of information through personal computers was a key advance of the 20th century, the democratization of production through improvements in fabrication technologies will be a pivotal development in the 21st century.
...
personal fabrication systems are beginning to allow individuals access to these same technologies.
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early access and opportunities to practice are the keys to success in any field involving complex tasks.
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We believe the advent of personal fabrication will affect society in unexpected ways, just as the advent of personal computing did. This will likely extend to the humanities as well as science and engineering.
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Personal fabrication offers the opportunity to democratize innovation. Schools must provide early access to the tools needed to develop skills required to take advantage of this opportunity."

Duas notas:

• quando escrevi este "Para reflexão" (parte I e parte II) era sobre isto mesmo:

 "O caminho faz-se caminhando... em vez de esperar e entrar mais lá à frente, quanto mais cedo se entrar mais cedo se identificarão novas oportunidades de negócio, novos nichos, novas fontes de receita."

Quantas PME estão a "brincar" e a acumular experiências que darão origem a intuições sobre o futuro?

• quantas escolas estão a proporcionar este acesso a estas tecnologias? Quantos alunos têm oportunidade de simplesmente brincar com estas ferramentas?

Trechos retirados de "The Democratization of Production"

Sem arte ...

Sem arte, o produto fabricado pela sua empresa será apenas mais uma commodity que pode ser substituído por este ecossistema "UPS teams with SAP to invest in 3-D printing":

"Customers will be able to place 3-D printing orders on the Fast Radius website, which will send them to one of UPS' more than 60 stores outfitted with 3-D printers, or Fast Radius' production facilities in Louisville. Where the order is sent will depend on speed, geography and the product quality the customer requires.
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SAP customers will be able to use the system to digitize and simplify the production part approval process.
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According to a study published in April by the Manufacturing Institute, 71% of U.S. manufacturers are using 3-D printing technology in some way. While the majority still use it mainly for prototypes, almost 7% are using it to produce end products."

E de "3D Printing Comes of Age in U.S. Industrial Manufacturing":

"While roughly the same percentage of US manufacturers are currently adopting 3DP in some way (roughly two-thirds) a higher percentage (51%) are using it for prototyping and final-products than two years ago (35%); meanwhile, fewer are simply “experimenting” to determine how they may use the technology (17% vs 29% two years earlier).
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3D printing seen to disrupt supply chain, threaten intellectual property Manufacturers are equally split on what will be 3DP’s most disruptive effect, with 22% saying it will be in restructuring supply chains, and another 22% that it will be threats to intellectual property, and 18% believe that it will be changed relationships with customers. Two years ago, the stand-alone, number-one concern was supply chain disruption."

E de "3D printing industry to triple in four years to $21B":

"This year, the 3D printing industry, which includes machines, materials and printing services, will reach $7.3 billion. By 2020, it is expected to grow to $21 billion,
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3D printing can speed development and delivery for customized products and bring increased flexibility through better inventory management and real-time production of wares that have variable demand.
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Other advantages named in the report: Manufacturing advantages for small batches, cost advantages based on efficiencies for certain applications and unprecedented flexibility in new markets. 3D printing also can improve quality through lighter parts, better ergonomics and more design freedom."

Matéria-prima para fazer emergir um novo tipo de economia, até que ponto voltaremos ao modelo pré-industrial?

O impacte tecnológico a montante

Mais um texto sobre o mundo novo que já está por aí, ainda que mal distribuído:

"I strongly believe that we are on the edge of a new industrial revolution: “Industry 4.0”, the rise of intelligent automation in manufacturing, where digital manufacturing meets the Internet’s democratisation of design. Digital manufacturing is maturing and 3D printing is now widely used in aerospace, automotive and medical industries for rapid prototyping, the ability to manufacture “impossible” shapes and completely custom products.
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A recent PwC survey found that 71.1% of US manufacturing companies now use 3D printing in some way, which demonstrate how more and more manufacturing processes changing toward 3d printing.
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Digital Forming has created a suite of custom services which allow you to build mass customisation into your customer journey, whether you are selling traditional items in a more personal way, or building a full digital supply chain. By building mass customisability into your existing customer journey, you can build your future piece by piece.
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Along with mass customisation, emotional branding is key to engaging the modern, millennial consumer. Emotional branding stems from the understanding that people are willing to pay for experiences as well as features."

Um artigo que li ontem perguntava se o progresso tecnológico ia acabar com os gestores intermédios nas empresas. Na minha mente formou-se outra frase, serão precisas empresas grandes em Mongo?
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O impacte do progresso tecnológico vai actuar também a montante, na dimensão e tipo de empresas.

"The Power of Customisation Without The Pain – Digital Forming Blog"

T-TIP, Mongo e o código

Ontem, durante o meu jogging ao final da tarde, enquanto chegava aos 5km, no noticiário das 19h na Renascença discutia-se o T-TIP. Lembrei-me do seu provável impacte no sector mais exportador de Portugal, o da produção de máquinas, recordar:

• Ainda acerca do impacte do T-TIP (Outubro de 2015)
• Como se vai preparar para o T-TIP? (Outubro de 2015)
• Para direcções associativas que pensam à frente (Setembro de 2015)

Relacionei logo essa preocupação com uma ideia com que tento seduzir as PME industriais, com o "é meter código nisso": PME e código, já pensou nisso? (parte V).

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Entretanto, leio "Venture investments in new manufacturing technologies could reshape American industry":

"New industrial processes, such as on-demand machining and additive three-dimensional printing, may have a tremendous effect on the U.S. economy. Roughly 33 percent of the economy is fueled by manufacturing and it’s one of the arenas that has been most resistant to incursions from the technology world. Now, all of that is changing for several well-documented reasons.
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The cost of hardware and infrastructure to support the application of technology in manufacturing has come down dramatically even as organizations are looking to improve efficiency by collecting more data on their processes and determining where there are costs to be saved.
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[Moi ici: Interessante esta ideia] MakeTime is an online capacity utilization marketplace for machining. The company provides a way for computerized machining companies to offer their manufacturing services for customized parts during times when those machines would typically sit idle.
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By distributing those orders across a number of different manufacturers during their down-times, MakeTime potentially provides a way for companies to do larger production runs at lower prices.
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“The goal of this whole game is to democratize the manufacturing floor to make things faster, better, and cheaper for a generation of entrepreneurs.” [Moi ici: O equivalente a dar mais poder aos criadores, aos membros das tribos] To make that happen, he adds, the whole manufacturing chain will need to be digitized.
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“It’s all going to play a part in Just in time or on-demand manufacturing,” he said. “We all rise up and we march to the hallowed ground and we bring our manufacturers home to the promised land.”[Moi ici: Míopes! A democratização da produção vai alterar o papel dos produtores, não voltaremos ao modelo século XX]"

Como é que a sua PME vai lidar com estes desafios?

Impressão 3D a caminho

Os pioneiros que vão abrir o caminho para a cada vez maior democratização da produção:

"In 2015, 62 manufacturers sold industrial-grade AM systems (valued at more than $5,000), compared to 49 in 2014, and twice as many as the 31 companies that sold industrial systems in 2011.
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• 71.1 percent of manufacturers have currently adopted 3D Printing.

• 52 percent of manufacturers expect 3D Printing will be used for high-volume production in the next 3-5 years.

• 22 percent of manufacturers predict 3D Printing will have a disruptive effect on supply chains."

Trechos retirados de "Wohlers Report 2016"