O canário na mina

O Jornal de Negócios de ontem, 25 de Junho de 2020, o podcast de ontem de Camilo Lourenço no Facebook e este texto de ontem no ECO, "UTAO arrasa proposta de Leão que remove “pilares” da LEO. É um “retrocesso”" traçam um retrato do buraco onde estamos em queda livre.

Alguns "recortes" dos Jornal de Negócios de ontem:

Repare naqueles 39 mil milhões de euros...

Repare naqueles 22%... quase um quarto dos créditos totais

Depois recorde os números do desemprego... recorde o estado actual e futuro do turismo e do peso que tinha no PIB e no emprego.

Depois, pense no significado disto:

Propósito deste postal para o mundo empresarial: dar um conselho sem ter sido pedido.

Comece a fazer testes de stress à sua empresa ASAP. 

Quando os bancos adiam os seus testes de stress é o canário na mina para que as empresas os comecem a fazer e a preparar o barco para uma tempestade.

Cautela e caldos de galinha...

Vamos supor que não concorda com as ideias de Daniel Lacalle em "El Banco Central Europeo no elimina el riesgo, lo disfraza". No entanto, experimente fazer uma experiência mental. E se Daniel Lacalle tem razão? Como é que a sua empresa se deveria estar a preparar para ser resiliente quando rebentar a grande tempestade?

"Interrogate what is likely to change"

"Vision is especially urgent during a crisis as global and systematic as this one. Inflections that you might have had five years to anticipate in a normal environment might unfold in a matter of weeks or months. [Moi ici: Ainda e sempre - "El coronavirus actúa como acelerador de cambios que ya estaban en marcha...”] Trend lines, such as those towards telecommuting, telemedicine, online shopping, and digital media consumption, are suddenly much steeper. Global supply chains are broken.
...
Many of your B2B customers may be shut down; millions of consumers are out of work. Some of the fundamental assumptions underlying your current business model may have been (or may soon be) upended.[Moi ici: Basta pensar nos clientes e consumidores ]

 [Moi ici: Basta pensar na economia como uma sopa de relações de todos os tipos em constante movimento e que alguém tenta congelar]

.
In short, the business environment that you land in when the pandemic comes to an end — which could be one to two years from now — may be very different from what it was before the crisis began.
...
Of course, nobody has a crystal ball ... But while you can’t predict what’s coming with perfect certainty, you can develop much more clarity than you might imagine about what you could and should become, create a plan to live into it, and then set it into motion.
...
Spend time envisioning your future.[Moi ici: E volto a "for at least the next couple months every organisation in the world is a startup"]
...´
Given the urgent demands of the present, some leaders may be tempted to delegate the responsibility for this kind of thinking to others, but it is critical that the CEO, CFO, CSO, and other key line leaders — the people who sign off on major resource allocation decisions — do this work themselves.
.
Interrogate what is likely to change about your customers, markets, and operating environment, and what isn’t. Focus on what your customers will require, how you’ll meet their new and evolving demands, the resonance of your products and services, and your overall capabilities.
.
Ask how resilient your core businesses will be in the light of these changes. Consider both threats and opportunities, and pinpoint elements of your portfolio that may no longer make sense and that will need to be sold off or shut down, as well as opportunities to accelerate new growth offerings."

Trechos retirados de "Leaders, Do You Have a Clear Vision for the Post-Crisis Future?"

O mundo que conhecemos nos últimos 20 anos pode mudar drasticamente (parte III)

Parte I e parte II.

Um texto interessante com analogias interessantes, "Covid-19 is foisting changes on business that could be beneficial":

"IN FEBRUARY 2014 a strike on the London Underground offered management theorists a lesson in resilience and adaptation. Because the shutdown closed some but not all Tube lines, frustrated Londoners were forced to rethink their commutes to and from work. Researchers at Oxford and Cambridge universities subsequently found that around 5% of passengers stuck to their new itineraries even after normal service resumed. The long-term economic gains of one in 20 travellers adopting new and improved ways to get to work turned out to be greater than the short-term costs of the disruption.
...
Some companies will, like most of London’s commuters, revert to autopilot once the threat recedes. But for others the interruption will have a lasting effect, accelerating trends in business organisation that were already under way.
...
 And for firms already worried about rickety supply chains amid a trade war, the virus gives another reason to reconfigure them.
...
The coronavirus will not make business travel or lean global supply chains disappear. Chinese factories are cranking up again and high-flyers will, in all likelihood, be back in airport lounges soon enough. But the crisis offers a chance to experiment with new ways of doing things—and to question the wisdom of old habits. Chief executives should not be immune to the opportunity."

E ainda:

"What’s happening to Italy’s fashion industry is likely a preview of the coronavirus’ impact on the global economy more broadly. Companies in a wide range of industries are dependent on China as both a manufacturing behemoth and billion-plus-consumer market. But as life in some parts of the country comes to a near-standstill in the face of the outbreak, that reliance looks more and more like a weakness.
...
Like many other industries, the fashion world has long embraced China as a source of cheap manufacturing — the country is by far the world’s largest producer of textiles, and it produces many of the other elements that go into clothes, from buttons to zippers to thread. “The vast majority of certain products are only done in China,” says Gary A. Wassner, the CEO of Hildun Corporation and the chairman of Interluxe. “We became very dependent, and we allowed it to happen because it was cost-efficient, but that’s not the only thing to consider.”"

Trechos retirados de "How the Coronavirus' Effect On the Fashion Industry Reveals Flaws in the Global Economy"

O mundo que conhecemos nos últimos 20 anos pode mudar drasticamente (parte II)

Parte I.

Um exemplo:

"A senior US official has hit out at countries including Germany, Russia and Turkey, that have rushed to introduce export controls to limit trade in medical supplies as they respond to the corona-virus outbreak - Peter Navarro, the White House's trade and manufacturing adviser, told the Financial Times that the moves showed the US was "alone" in confronting the outbreak and would have to reduce its dependence on global medical supply chains to "defend our citizens". "Just as in the H1N1 flu pandemic of 2009, actions by strategic competitors and putative allies alike once again demonstrate that in a global public health emergency, the US is alone," he said. "Such behaviour is precisely why it is important for the Trump administration to bring home its manufacturing capabilities and supply chains for essetial medicines.""(1)

Outro exemplo:

"Most downturns are Darwinian moments for capitalism: out go old, lumbering companies that failed to move with the times; in come their disruptive rivals in a blaze of creative destruction. Hardship focuses the mind, and companies find more efficient ways of running their businesses. The economy that emerges should be more productive than its predecessor. Yet in this crisis the opposite may be happening. The most efficient, which is to say the cheapest, way companies have found of manufacturing products is to use supply chains that straddle the globe in search of cheap labour. If something could be made for less on the other side of the world, so be it. Yet coronavirus, which threatens to constrain the free movement of people and goods, will deny companies this cheapest avenue. Companies will have to think long and hard about whether intercontinental supply chains make sense. Already some companies are shifting production back home and opting for home-built components. On the one hand that spells enormous disruption and could make all our lives more expensive.
...
Of course, it’s quite possible life returns to normal after coronavirus. But one consequence of this disease could be that it forces us to take a long hard look at the way we run the world, and change it." (2)

(1) - "US official hits out at hoarding of coronavirus medical supplies"
(2) - "Coronavirus can trigger a new industrial revolution"

O mundo que conhecemos nos últimos 20 anos pode mudar drasticamente

Os nabateus deixaram-nos uma grande lição nas ruínas de Petra.

"BTW, este fim de semana vi num canal do cabo, tipo National Geographic(?), um documentário sobre os Nabateus e a civilização de Petra. Uma parte desse documentário não me sai da cabeça... a parte em que se refere a técnica dos Nabateus para transportar água ao longo de km e km. Eles desenhavam a inclinação das tubagens não para a máxima eficiência de caudal transportado mas para a mais eficaz. A máxima eficiência leva à rotura frequente das tubagens."

Pois:

"Systems with slack are more resilient." 

Ontem, no Financial Times apanhei esta figura:

E pensei no exemplo das farmacêuticas, referido nesta "Curiosidade do dia".

Cheira-me que este choque, que esta disrupção nas cadeias de fornecimento, provocada pelo coronavírus, vai ser um momento de viragem... como as cheias em Bangkoque para a Ecco.
Entretanto, ontem no mesmo Financial Times apanho "Margins are going to be squeezed":

"If there is a simple lesson to be drawn from last week’s market rout, it is that there is fragility in complexity. The coronavirus outbreak has, like the 2011 Japanese tsunami and Thai floods that disrupted auto and electronics businesses, or the 1999 earthquake in Taiwan that brought the semiconductor industry to a halt, shown us the vulnerabilities of our highly interconnected economy and global supply chains.
.
This time around, the trigger is an outbreak spreading outwards from China, still the factory of the world as well as its second-largest economy.
...
Goldman Sachs last week warned investors to expect zero profit growth from US companies this year, mainly because of the growing impact of the virus. But I wonder how much profit growth big corporations will be able to expect even after the infections play out and the results of the November US presidential elections come in.
...
The healthy margins of today’s highly optimised, extremely complex multinational corporations have largely depended on their ability to manufacture in China, sell in the US and Europe, and stash wealth wherever it makes most sense — particularly in favourable tax destinations like Hong Kong, Dublin or the Cayman Islands.
...
I’ve wondered for years when the fragility inherent in complex global multinationals would force them to shift their business models, and I think we’ve reached that moment. I believe coronavirus will speed the decoupling of the US and Chinese economic ecosystems, increasing regionalisation and localisation of production. That may result in “supply chains that are less efficient but more resilient”,
...
If decoupling continues, multinationals will have to make costly choices around labour, productivity and transport in order to manage a shift away from China."

O mundo que conhecemos nos últimos 20 anos pode mudar drasticamente.

BTW, e estão a ver o impacto do coronavírus nos hospitais-cidade? E nas escolas-cidade?

Para reflexão

"The experts were, by and large, horrific forecasters. Their areas of specialty, years of experience, and (for some) access to classified information made no difference. They were bad at short-term forecasting and bad at long-term forecasting. They were bad at forecasting in every domain. When experts declared that future events were impossible or nearly impossible, 15 percent of them occurred nonetheless. When they declared events to be a sure thing, more than one-quarter of them failed to transpire.
...
Even faced with their results, many experts never admitted systematic flaws in their judgment. When they missed wildly, it was a near miss; if just one little thing had gone differently, they would have nailed it. “There is often a curiously inverse relationship,” Tetlock concluded, “between how well forecasters thought they were doing and how well they did.”
...
Hedgehogs are deeply and tightly focused. Some have spent their career studying one problem. ...
Foxes, meanwhile, “draw from an eclectic array of traditions, and accept ambiguity and contradiction,” Tetlock wrote. Where hedgehogs represent narrowness, foxes embody breadth.
.
Incredibly, the hedgehogs performed especially poorly on long-term predictions within their specialty. They got worse as they accumulated experience and credentials in their field. The more information they had to work with, the more easily they could fit any story into their worldview.
.
Unfortunately, the world’s most prominent specialists are rarely held accountable for their predictions, so we continue to rely on them even when their track records make clear that we should not."

Trechos retirados de "The Peculiar Blindness of Experts"

BTW, este anónimo da província apostou em Agosto de 2013 quando todos falavam da espiral recessiva, foi no dia 25 de Abril de 2013. Recordo Outubro de 2013 e sobretudo "Uma espécie de Agosto de 2013".

Há dias publiquei a segunda parte de "O fim de um ciclo":

• Parte I 
• Parte II

E reparem como andam os funcionários do governo no semanário [sim, porque não eu não me esqueço de Gigerenzer], "INE deve apresentar esta semana a taxa de desemprego mais baixa dos últimos 15 anos":

"Economistas ouvidos pelo Expresso apontam, em média, para uma taxa de desemprego de 6,5% no primeiro trimestre deste ano, o que compara com 6,7% nos últimos três meses de 2018. A confirmar-se, será o valor mais baixo desde 2004"

E comparem com "Taxa de desemprego sobe pela primeira vez em três anos":

"No primeiro trimestre de 2019, a taxa de desemprego foi 6,8%, acaba de divulgar o Instituto Nacional de Estatística, registando uma subida de 0,1 pontos percentuais (p.p.) face ao trimestre anterior, mas também uma descida de 1,1 pontos percentuais face ao período homólogo, o primeiro trimestre de 2018. A subida trimestral acontece pela primeira vez desde o primeiro trimestre de 2016."[Moi ici: Recordar "Acerca do desemprego"]

A maré já mudou, agora só está a ser atenuada pela boleia demográfica.

"Thinking about the future"

"If somebody tells you they can predict the future, don't believe them. Nobody can predict large socio-technical transformations and what exactly these are going to look like.
...
So, if no one can predict the future, why think about it? Because doing so helps you to inoculate yourself. In the medical field, inoculating yourself prevents you from falling ill. In futures thinking, if you've considered a whole range of possibilities, you're kind of inoculating yourself. If one of these possibilities comes about, you're better prepared.
...
Thinking about the future is also about imagining. It's about transforming how we think. It's about creating a map to the future and looking for the big areas of opportunity. We like to think about transformations, for example, in learning and work, and how they get connected and intertwined in various ways. And then we start thinking about zones of opportunity. How can we shape the future to make it more equitable? How can we amplify learning outcomes? What do we need to do to achieve these outcomes?
.
The future doesn't just happen to us. We have agency in imagining and creating the kind of future we want to live in, and we can take actions to get us there.
...
I said earlier that there is no data about the future; the only data we have is about the past. While we cannot fully rely on past data to help us see the future, there are larger patterns in history that we tend to repeat over and over again. Thus, we need to look back to see forward.
...
At its best, futures thinking is not about predicting the future; rather, it is about engaging people in thinking deeply about complex issues, imagining new possibilities, connecting signals into larger patterns, connecting the past with the present and the future, and making better choices today. Futures thinking skills are essential for everyone to learn in order to better navigate their own lives and to make better decisions in the face of so many transformations in our basic technologies and organizational structures. The more you practice futures thinking, the better you get. The five principles outlined above—not focusing on predictions, uncovering signals, understanding historical trajectories, weaving together larger patterns, and bringing diverse voices into the conversation—should help you on your journey of making futures thinking a way of life for you and your community."

Trechos retirados "Five Principles for Thinking Like a Futurist"

Uma ilusão perigosa

Mal apanhei, por acaso, esta lista de artigos, comecei a pensar no calçado e no futuro das suas feiras:

• Art Fairs Are Popping Up Everywhere. Do They Make Any Money?
• ‘It Isn’t Working Anymore’: Dealers at Frieze New York Reckon With the Thorny State of the Art Market
• The Rise of Art Fairs: Convenience for Busy Plutocrats or Social Proof for Uneasy Collectors
• What Is the Future of the Art Fair?
• The shifting fortunes of art fairs

Até aqui:

"Increasing Online Sales and Current World Events Are Affecting Attendance Numbers"

Isto não tem nada a ver com o calçado, por isso dá algum distanciamento para fazer para comparações.

Feiras nascem e morrem, porque prestam ou deixam de prestar um serviço.

Os mercados não são estáticos, e as soluções que funcionam num momento podem ficar obsoletas num momento seguinte.

É fundamental estar atento, questionar e não ficar preso a soluções que deixaram de resultar.

A estabilidade é uma ilusão e uma ilusão perigosa.

Começar pelo fim, um grande truque

Para um adepto do "começar pelo fim":

"Motivation research has found that we tend to be the most driven and enthusiastic about a project when we begin it and when we’re about to complete it.
...
For relatively simple goals, there was no difference between forward planning and backward planning. If a goal is short-term or requires only a couple of steps, the two are likely no different. But for complex tasks (like planning out how to study for a comprehensive exam), students preparing backward anticipated the necessary steps more clearly and followed the original plan to reach the set goal. They had higher expectations for reaching their goals and felt less pressed for time during progress toward them.
...
Backwards planning may have helped the students forecast success rather than failure. If one starts at the end goal, the assumption is that efforts were successful to get there, while moving from the present to the future doesn’t necessarily assume success, and forces the goal setter to think through obstacles that might prevent it from happening. Research has shown that envisioning the steps necessary to complete a goal reduces anxiety, increases confidence, and lead to more effortful actions. Further, goal setters feel closer to the end goal in terms of time when they envision success rather than failure."

Trechos retirados de "Trying to Get Ahead? Plan in Reverse, Study Suggests"

A minha abordagem preferida

Começar pelo fim:

"Scrapping the “present-forward” perspective, they no longer started with an assessment of its current products and contracts.
.
Instead, they began the planning process by envisioning the company in the further-off year of 2030. Starting with a clean sheet of paper, they imagined how customer needs would be different due to geopolitical forces, defense budget crunches, and technological disruptions. The exercise was conducted with brutal honesty as to how its product pipeline would unfold and play in the newly envisioned “future state” of the world."

O anónimo da província há anos que recomenda isto: "future-back" approach to strategy"

Esqueça a política!

"Vivemos hoje em Portugal uma das situações mais terríveis e perturbadoras da humanidade: a lenta gestação de uma catástrofe. No futuro, quando olharem para o nosso tempo, as pessoas terão muita dificuldade em entender a apatia nacional que conduziu ao colapso de 2017-2018. Nessa altura muitos perguntarão como foi possível tal cegueira, ignorando os verdadeiros problemas, até se cair na ruína?"

Esqueça a política e concentre-se na sua empresa!
.
Admita que o autor do texto tem razão.
Como se pode preparar para fazer face ao cenário do tempo novo que aí virá?
.
Como pode fazer desse tempo novo uma oportunidade?
.
Como vai resistir a esse tempo novo e às dificuldades que ele acarretará?

Trecho retirado de "Até agora, tudo bem"

Quando o futuro parece inevitável e fora de controlo ...

Há dias o @pauloperes chamou-me a atenção para "Douglas Rushkoff joins IFTF as Research Fellow" e para esta citação:

"The future is not a scenario we should prepare for, but a process we enact in the present. It’s not a fate we discern, but an extension of our actions in the moment - be they personal, cultural, or institutional. [Moi ici: Gosto particularmente do trecho que se segue] If anything, when the future seems inevitable or out of control, it’s simply because we have not yet unearthed the embedded assumptions informing our highly determinative actions."

Como não pensar no futuro inevitável do calçado previsto por Daniel Bessa em Março de 2005

"O homem não conhece o futuro"

"that is how most strategies emerge: Discovery trumps planning.
...
So how do we deal with the fact that discovery trumps planning?
One common reaction is to pretend that the success was planned. Of course, after a discovery we naturally try to make sense of what we see working so well. And there is nothing wrong with retrospective rationalization; we do it all the time in business school “case studies” in an effort to learn. The problem is allowing retrospective rationalization to masquerade as a well-planned strategy, ... Such a misunderstanding leads observers to think (wrongly) that great businesses result from a great plan.
.
Another bad reaction is to wax cynical, surmising that success really just comes down to luck. This conclusion denies the fact that some people are better than others at spotting the opportunities that (luckily) come along. There is much more to discovery than the flip of a coin. When plans produce unanticipated consequences, these look like failures. If you think that leadership means waiting to get lucky, you’ll conclude from such failure that your luck has run out – a self-fulfilling prophecy.
.
But there is information in those unanticipated consequences for those who know to seek it out. Scott Cook, Intuit’s founder, coaches his people to “savor surprises” – to see deviations from plan as the fountainhead of opportunity. Seen this way, the strategic plan is just step one in the discovery process. Leaders that understand this truth do not pretend to know the solution in advance. Instead, they plan to discover."

Recordar "O seguro morreu de velho":

"O homem não conhece o futuro. Quem lhe poderia dizer o que há de acontecer em seguida?" Eclesiastes 10, 14.
.
E no entanto:"Semeia a tua semente desde a manhã, e não deixes tuas mãos ociosas até à noite. Porque não sabes o que terá bom êxito, se isto ou aquilo, ou se ambas as coisas são igualmente úteis."
Eclesiastes 11, 6
.
Demos o nosso melhor, fizemos as nossas apostas mas temos de estar, temos de permanecer atentos e abertos a mudar, a corrigir o tiro, tendo em conta os sinais que emergem da realidade durante a viagem a caminho do futuro desejado, por que o que vamos obtendo é o futuro real.

Trechos iniciais retirados de "Discovery Trumps Planning, So Plan to Discover"

Em tempos de volatilidade III

Parte I e parte II.

"Our research has identified six disciplines—meaning habits, attitudes, and capabilities—that are essential for leaders to thrive in VUCA environments.
...
1. Anticipate changes in the market environment by staying closely connected with customers, partners, and competitors, rather than becoming disconnected and reactive.
2. Challenge assumptions and the status quo by surrounding themselves with people who think outside the box and are open to new ideas.
3. Interpret a wide array of data and viewpoints rather than looking only for evidence that confirms their prior beliefs.
4. Decide what to do after examining their options and then exercise courage to get it done rather than waffling or belaboring the decision-making process.
5. Align the interests and incentives of stakeholders, based on understanding different views, rather than relying on their power or position.
6. Learn from success and failure by experimenting, making small bets, [Moi ici: Fragilistas, aprendei!] and mining the lessons from both the good and the bad outcomes to create quick learning cycles."

Trechos retirados de "Winning the Long Game - How Strategic Leaders Shape the Future" de Steven Krupp

 

O futuro do trabalho em Mongo - um pesadelo para caviares e industrialistas

As Uber têm o seu papel como arietes para derrubar as instituições que herdámos do Normalistão, mas as Uber não são o futuro do trabalho no Estranhistão.
.
Embora pareça conversa de político acredito que Mongo vai nos levar para aqui:

"Thankfully, the remedies are varied. Unlike the one-size-fits-all solutions of the Industrial Age, distributed prosperity in a digital age won’t scale infinitely. Rather, the solutions gain their traction and power by reconnecting people and rewriting business plans from the perspective of serving human stakeholders rather than abstracted share values.
...
Or retrieving the Papal concepts of “distributism” and “subsidiarity,” through which workers are required to own the means of production, and companies grow only as large as they need to in order to fulfill their purpose. Growth for growth’s sake is discouraged.
.
Many companies today – from ridesharing app Lazooz to Walmart competitor WinCo – are implementing worker-owned “platform cooperatives” to replace platform monopolies, allowing those contributing land or labor to an enterprise to earn an ownership share equal to those contributing just capital.
...
We must remember that employment may really just be an artifact of an old system [Moi ici: Interessante como os caviares detestam e criticam o auto-emprego] – the reactionary move of a bunch of nobles who were afraid for people to create value for themselves.
.
Once we’re no longer conflating the idea of “work” with that of “employment,” we are free to create value in ways unrecognized by the current growth-based market economy. [Moi ici: Recordar esta reflexão sobre o futuro do trabalho] We can teach, farm, feed, care for and even entertain one another. The work challenge is not a problem of scarcity but a spoil of riches. It’s time we learn to deal with it that way."

Trechos retirados de "Rebooting Work: Programming the Economy for People" com um sublinhado especial para:

"That we should now witness a renaissance in makers, crafts and artisanal production is no coincidence. The digital landscape encourages production from the periphery, lateral trade, and the distribution of wealth. Instead of depending on centralized institutions for sustenance, we begin to depend on one another."

Recordar:

• Plataformas de 2º geração, o começo
• Mongo e os Golias
• O pós-Uber(ismo)
• O futuro do emprego em Mongo
• O futuro do emprego passará pelo auto-emprego

Em tempos de volatilidade (parte II)

Parte I.

"A strategic leader must look at strategic decisions from two perspectives: “outside in” and “future back.” By “outside in,” we mean that a strategic leader starts with the external marketplace when addressing problems, without getting wrapped up by internal organizational issues.[Moi ici: Há os que partem dos contactos políticos, dos contactos nos media, para moldar o mercado à sua maneira "contra" os clientes]
...
By “future back,” we mean that strategic leaders play the long game. Their long-term vision guides short-term decision-making in a flexible way. Strategic leaders plan backward from their idealized future images to what they must do now [Moi ici: A receita deste anónimo da província; começar pelo fim. Viajar até ao futuro para que o futuro seja a causa do presente. Recordar "O meu presente não existe senão graças ao meu futuro" e "Construir o futuro, em vez de aguardar por ele"] to be ready in five years or more. Being more strategic means reimagining your future and adapting your strategy or business model appropriately to changing times, to give your business the best chance of staying vital and sustainable. [Moi ici: Para um autóctone de um país com mais de 8 séculos de história falar em instabilidade, em disrupção... umas vezes sabe a conceito abstracto, outras a blasfémia. Não somos como os indonésios, com terramotos ano-sim ano-não.]

...
In a rapidly changing world, strategic leaders engage not only with the competition but, more broadly, with an ecosystem of diverse and potentially disruptive forces such as customers, suppliers, partners, organizational cultures, capital markets, and technological innovations. The continual threat of disruption requires the capacity to envision the future and catalyze change."[Moi ici: Outra vez o anónimo da província e a sua mania dos ecossistemas, aquilo a que outros chamam, e muito em, de co-criação, aquilo a que Esko Kilpi chama de networks]

Trechos retirados de "Winning the Long Game - How Strategic Leaders Shape the Future" de Steven Krupp

Recordar também:

• O nosso Eu em construção, em função do futuro que desenhamos e visualizamos
• Heidegger?

Há que estar atento ao futuro

O mundo dos ginásios é um cosmos interessante pela diversidade das mudanças em curso no seu seio. Recentemente escrevemos: "Um exemplo da polarização do mercado" e "Para reflexão".
.
Em "How Fitness Studios Affect Gyms" uma lista de diferentes vectores em curso e a alterar a realidade do sector:

"This year saw an explosive rise in both boutique fitness and class-booking services such as ClassPass and FitReserve — a rise that many speculate is eating away at the bottom line of traditional big-box gyms.
...
the number of studios opened in 2014 showed a 200-percent increase from the previous year. When comparing this to only a seven-percent increase in the number of new gyms that were opened, it suggests that the industry is shifting away from traditional big-box chains. In short: studio business is booming.[Moi ici: Apetece recordar "Muito mais do que valor financeiro" ao pensar em quanto as pessoas pagam por sessão na boutique versus quanto pagam de mensalidade num big box gym]
...
and consumers are looking for more than what big-box gyms can offer — specifically, a more tailored fitness experience. "These studios are centered on a particular community of people with similar passions [Pilates, Zumba, boxing], and provide a high-touch, personalized environment."
.
The experience, however, doesn't come cheap — class at many studios can easily cost $30 a pop. Yet, despite the high cost of participation, people are paying — now more than ever." [Moi ici: Recuei ao início dos anos 90 do século passado e a um colega de trabalho... o sr. Celestino. Lembro-me de me ter contado que tinha comprado uma bicicleta mais cara para se obrigar a usá-la com mais frequência...]

Em "The 5 Next Big Fitness Trends You Can Expect For This Year" material para aqueles que pensam no futuro do negócio para depois de amanhã. Quando praticava atletismo de competição tinha um problema anual, as lesões. Hoje, como corredor diário de estrada tenho um problema anual... as lesões. Como sou exigente comigo próprio não faço a melhor recuperação nem doseio o esforço como deve ser. Daí que tenha logo sentido o potencial de:

"Recovery Efforts.
As intense workouts are getting popular, the value of a recovery period is also getting recognized."

Basta pensar na explosão do número de pessoas que sem acompanhamento técnico usa as estradas para fazer corrida-exercício.
.
Claro que para fazer face ao futuro há esta reacção "E uma providência cautelar?"

Transformar uma empresa em 3 passos

Gosto de começar um projecto relacionado com a estratégia de uma empresa pelo fim. Ou seja, depois de seleccionada a vantagem competitiva, depois de seleccionados os clientes-alvo, depois de desenhado o ecossistema da procura que vai ser trabalhado, peço à equipa que faça uma viagem ao futuro (1).
.
Já no futuro, peço que apreciem, que gozem, que visualizem o sucesso da empresa.

 - O que estão a ver?

Acrescento, não se preocupem com mais nada, não perguntem como foi, não perguntem quanto custou, simplesmente visualizem e saboreiem esse futuro desejado.
.
Depois, acabo com o sonho e desperto os participantes para a dura realidade. Estamos aqui e agora, não no futuro desejado.
.
Há um provérbio japonês que diz que diz:

"Visão sem acção não é mais que fantasia,
acção sem visão é apenas um pesadelo"

Fomos ao futuro desejado, estivemos lá, vimos como era e experimentámos como era/será bom. E, agora, voltamos ao presente... muito menos brilhante, muito menos atraente, com mais problemas e tomamos consciência que não fizemos nada, que não agimos.

"three approaches when considering how to reach a desired outcome. The first is indulging: a mental state achieved by creating a vivid picture of what the future looks like when you have achieved your goal. Most of us tend to go to this place of fantasy quite readily; it is a quite seductive place to be. But it’s easy to get stuck in fantasy, partly because our brains find it hard to distinguish the fiction from the reality. The fantasy gives us some of the psychological rewards of having done the thing itself, and so our motivation to act is reduced."

Nesta altura, peço à equipa que faça um novo exercício mental. Estão no hoje, estão na realidade actual, conseguem ver o que corre mal, conseguem ver o que não está bem ... (continuo já a seguir com o exercício)

"The second approach is called dwelling, which consists of creating an equally powerful and fully realized picture of all that could go wrong along the journey. If you’re naturally inclined to pessimism, this can be a seductive place, too, because  it tells you that there is really no point in the whole exercise. It can be very difficult to get out of the dwelling ditch and on to the road to change. This is where the victim resides."

Onde existe uma vítima, onde existe alguém com o sentimento de que é uma vítima, há um manancial tremendo para a explorar no pior sentido da palavra (durante as campanhas eleitorais é tão fácil perceber a competição entre políticos e jornalistas para ver quem é mais reconhecido como o salvador da vítima contra os vilões de turno)
.
(continuemos com o exercício) Estiveram no futuro, viram como funcionava. Agora estão no presente e vêem como funciona. Lancem uma corda-ninja entre os dois instantes, presente e futuro desejado, e façam comparações. Detectem as diferenças, listem o que contrasta.

"The third, more effective approach is the active contrasting of indulging and dwelling: going back and forth between the two, tying together the promise of future rewards with the constraints and threats of today. The cognitive dissonance this sets up for people turns out to be the most effective driver of change. Because we can’t easily live with that tension, it stimulates us to do what’s necessary to move us toward resolution. It was striking how most of the people we interviewed were living in this place of mental contrasting, between the possibilities of success and the constant negotiation of difficulties that could spell setback or even disaster.
...
A visceral understanding of what it will mean to fulfill our ambition without shrinking from the challenges in the constraints is the best form of preparation for what’s to come."

 Este contraste entre o presente e o futuro permite identificar as acções elementares, as actividades concretas que transformarão a realidade actual no futuro desejado (2).

(1)

• "future-back" approach to strategy" (Maio de 2013)
• Começar pelo fim!!! (Julho de 2010)
• Mais uma vez e sempre: Começar pelo fim!!! (Setembro de 2009)
• Fazer uma excursão até ao Futuro Imaginado (Julho de 2008)

(2)

• 3 momentos para construir a mudança (Março de 2015)
• "mental contrasting" (Outubro de 2014)
• Prerequisite tree (Dezembro de 2013)
• Problemas versus soluções: uma espécie de judo (Agosto de 2012)
• Pensamento sistémico aplicado a um SGA (II) (Setembro de 2006)
• Pensamento sistémico aplicado a um SGA (Setembro de 2006)

Trechos retirados de livro "A Beautiful Constraint".
.
Se chegaram até aqui posso revelar o meu segredo, foi o ter percebido o quão poderosa era esta ferramenta do "mental contrasting" para desenhar iniciativas estratégicas muito mais inteligentes que me levou a escrever o livro sobre o BSC.

.

E voltando a poesia de 2009:

""Simplemente te has de plantar (literalmente) en el futuro deseado y dar una serie de pasos, no para llegar a él un día, sino como si ya estuvieses allí (o casi allí ahora mismo). La clave está en la visualización, la anticipación del futuro con todos los sentidos posibles y con toda la intensidad de la que seas capaz: “La visión es el qué, la imagen del futuro que queremos crear”. La tarea, por tanto, consiste en eliminar todos los obstáculos que quedan en el camino con el fin de llegar allí plenamente. Quiero recordarte que la mayoría de obstáculos serán auto-impuestos, consecuencia de tus propias limitaciones mentales. He de decirte que la Proalimentación es desequilibrante, porque te saca de tu zona de comodidad, te acerca al borde del caos, pero eso mismo es desafiante, retadora y porque saca lo mejor de ti mismo es muy gratificante, pues como dijo un sabio: “el equilibrio no es la finalidad ni la meta de los sistemas abiertos. Para mantenerse viable, un sistema abierto necesita hallarse en constante estado de desequilibrio”."

Curiosidade do dia

A Grande Ressaca!
.
A venda ao desbarato das commodities em "Goodbye to all that":

"The real curse for producers is over-supply in almost all raw materials. Yet they continue to act as if they are blithely unaware of it. Capital is still pouring into holes in the ground, creating a hangover that may last at least a decade. Jeff Currie of Goldman Sachs, a bank, says past cycles suggest it can take up to 15 years to work through the over-investment. “The world has just flip-flopped,” he says."

Como não recordar a força da inércia em "O poder, o momentum da inércia"