Mostrar mensagens com a etiqueta Promotor da concorrência imperfeita e dos monopólios informais. Mostrar todas as mensagens
Mostrar mensagens com a etiqueta Promotor da concorrência imperfeita e dos monopólios informais. Mostrar todas as mensagens

quinta-feira, fevereiro 01, 2024

Vintage Martin

Esta semana Roger Martin publicou "The Strategic Leverage of Where-to-Play", um texto vintage sobre estratégia.

"The other commonly held view on WTP [Moi ici: WTP significa "onde jogar", significa escolher o foco do mercado onde se actua] — that it is preordained and immutable — is mainly implicit. I don’t see executives talking explicitly about this view, but it is clear in their actions.

...

The overpowering view, whether explicitly stated or implicitly acted upon, is that our WTP is what it means to be in this industry. Anything else is unbecoming, illicit, infeasible or some such prohibition/inhibition.

...

Arguably 95% of the 100 most valuable companies in the world have a unique WTP choice — which I would argue is critical to them being on the list. [Moi ici: O trecho que se segue é delicioso. Como não recordar tantos postais aqui no blogue sobre a concorrência imperfeita, sobre as ideias de Chamberlin e dos encalhados] Economists don't like that — at all. Economists love overlapping WTP, as illustrated in the left diagram above. It gets them closer to their holy grail, 'perfect competition,' in which customers see the competitors as largely interchangeable and, because of that, can force the competitors to compete down prices to a level that results in barely sustainable profitability. Economics love, love, love that — but it sure isn't a recipe for getting into the Top 100 market value companies. [Moi ici: O objectivo da escolha da WTP é ser diferente – é destacar-se. Mesmo uma pequena diferença é boa. Quanto mais exclusivo for o WTP, melhor. A diferença entre quem vende outcomes e quem vende outputs]

...

The WTP imperative is to spread — the illustration above on the right. Any amount of spread is good. Get as far from overlap as you can with your WTP [Moi ici: Recordo tantos e tantos gestores, alguns com quem tive muito gosto em trabalhar, com muito pensamento estratégico, mas incapazes de querer ter de tudo na prateleira]

...

The gift you receive when you achieve uniqueness in your WTP is that it opens up different kinds of HTWs [Moi ici: HTW, "Como ganhar", qual a vantagem competitiva] than the industry standard. 

...

Always think of WTP as malleable and nuanced. Small shifts in WTP can open up big HTW possibilities. If you are struggling with HTW — as companies regularly do - don't pull your hair out trying to find a HTW in your current WTP. There may well not be one. Instead, start playing with your WTP — and I mean playing. 

...

It is scary because it is choiceful. It is making a real strategic choice - because the opposite isn't stupid; the opposite is the WTP that others have chosen. That is why most executives are nervous about doing it — and the vast majority just plain don't. That is why there is so much overlap out there in the WTPs of modestly performing companies.

But it is important to keep in mind that if you can't find a HTW in your current WTP, you are going to expire. Maybe it won't be today or tomorrow or this year — but eventually.

So, start playing with your WTP. Come up with three to five different WTP modifications for which you can find a HTW pairing. Then think them through and choose the one for which the most compelling case can be made!" [Moi ici: Escolher uma alternativa e experimentar a sua execução. A experimentação, quase sempre abre portas a oportunidades escondidas... recordar a effectuation e o meu querido fuçar]

Trechos retirados de "The Strategic Leverage of Where-to-Play"

domingo, junho 25, 2023

Fugir da previsibilidade

Ontem, quando li este tweet...

Sorri em concordância. E pensei na quantidade de pessoas que não o entende. Pior, que está contra ele. Pior ainda, sendo empresários, estão contra ele.

Recordei então um sublinhado num artigo que ando a ler:

"The benchmark in explaining differences in performance is the model of perfect competition, which specifies the conditions under which all firms earn zero economic profit. It follows that generating positive economic profit requires market imperfections. In line with this, RBT points to factor market imperfections as a crucial source of economic profit."

Predictability é sinónimo de concorrência perfeita, ou seja lucros raquíticos e empobrecimento.

Fugir do padrão é arriscar, é inovar e fugir da previsibilidade.

Fugir da previsibilidade é uma forma de criar heterogeneidade e fugir da comoditização, é uma forma de criar valor potencial que pode vir a ser capturado como margem superior.

Trecho retirado de "Value, rent, and profit: A stakeholder resource-based theory" de J. W. Stoelhorst



quarta-feira, junho 21, 2023

A importância das "market frictions"



"the presence of firm-level heterogeneity implies the presence of various market frictions, like causal ambiguity and asset specificity/uniqueness.
...

These market frictions interact to create the need for cost minimization, or the opportunity for value creation and value capture.
...

We then apply the market-frictions logic to organizational boundary and economic rents questions to show how joining cost minimization, value creation, and value capture can be achieved through considering various market frictions. More generally, we maintain that it is useful to view market frictions as the fundamental building blocks of strategic management, and the analysis of new combinations of market frictions may provide new strategic insights."

As "market frictions" são o que cria as imperfeições de mercado, são o que gera a concorrência imperfeita. Sem imperfeições de mercado não há criação e captura de valor, só há lucros raquíticos e empobrecimento. Faz-me tanta impressão que estas coisas não sejam evidentes para a academia.

domingo, junho 19, 2022

Subir preços

"Why Companies Raise Their Prices: Because They Can"

"In 2021, US companies logged their most profitable year since the 1950s, as many took advantage of economies of scale and other more efficient production processes. Yet, firms increasingly held on to the savings they gained from these reduced costs, rather than passing them on to customers in the form of lower prices.
...
markups—the difference between prices charged at checkout and the marginal costs incurred by a company in order to make a product—climbed about 25 percent between 2006 and 2019
...
The researchers came to a startling conclusion: Consumers were 30 percent less price sensitive—meaning less likely to abandon favorite brands and seek cheaper equivalent products—in 2019 than they were in 2006.
...
Meanwhile, company costs have declined over time as firms have squeezed more productivity out of increasingly efficient operations. Since 2006, marginal costs have dropped by 2.1 percent annually on average, the authors estimate. In the latter part of the study period, from 2017 to 2019, firm costs were about 25 percentage points lower versus 2006.

Rising markups come from either price increases or marginal cost reductions."


"In all, we examined 846 large publicly traded corporations last year through the lens of 34 separate indicators in five categories: customer satisfaction, employee engagement and development, innovation, social responsibility and financial strength.
...
To build our ranking, companies are compared in each of the five areas, as well as their overall effectiveness, through standardized scores with a typical range of 0 to 100 and a mean of 50.
...
In our latest research, prompted by concerns over inflation, we explored the correlation between net profit margin-the percentage of profit a company produces from its total revenue-and customer satisfaction for 2021.
Of the 24 industries we looked at, 11 showed no meaningful statistical relationship between the two. Others, however, stood out. In six industries-household and personal products, autos, telecommunications, consumer services, banks and pharmaceuticals-there was a significant positive correlation between profit margin and customer satisfaction.
This means the two variables move in the same direction.
When one goes up, the other goes up; when one goes down, the other goes down. And it implies that, in general, firms in these industries have a fair bit of leeway to raise prices without making their customers disgruntled.
"We call this pricing power,'
...
At the other end of the spectrum are companies in industries with a negative correlation between profit margin and customer satisfaction. Across these sectors, when net profit margin goes up, customer satisfaction goes down-and vice versa.
...
What's more, any company with low customer satisfaction may well have trouble raising prices-regardless of the industry it's in. "It's a delicate calibration,""


quarta-feira, junho 01, 2022

"we look for an important asymmetry"

"In business competition, one cannot expect to make a profit without some source of advantage. We look for advantage in four basic places: in information, knowing something that others do not; in know-how, having a skill, or patent, that others do not have; in position, having a reputation, brand, or existing market system (for example, distribution, supply chains) that others cannot readily imitate or push aside; in efficiency, whether based on scale, technology, experience, or other factor that others cannot easily attain; and in the management of systems, whether bridging complexity or moving with speed and precision, that others do not have. In each case, we look for an important asymmetry, one that can be turned to advantage, between you and competitors"

Em busca de uma oportunidade para criar concorrência imperfeita.

Trecho retirado de "The Crux - How Leaders Become Strategists" de Richard P. Rumelt. 

sábado, maio 07, 2022

Precisa de um pouco de fé

Formular uma estratégia é mais do que seguir a via analítica, precisa de um salto no escuro, precisa de um pouco de fé.


Neste postal de Outubro de 2015, "Do concreto para o abstracto e não o contrário", uso esta figura:

Esta figura na minha opinião, baseada na minha experiência, está errada ao começarmos pela Missão e Objectivos. No postal descrevo que começo pela outra extremidade.

Entretanto, ontem li:
"I encourage her to identify what makes her business different, or special, compared to its competitors. I ask her about the particular challenges and opportunities it faces. She replies haltingly at first, in generalities.
...
The key steps in dealing with a strategic challenge are a diagnosis of the situationa comprehension of “what is going on here,” finding the crux, and then creating reasonable action responses.
...
strategy is portrayed as a set of actions directed at attaining certain “first element” long-term goals. But where do such goals come from?
Apparently, they somehow pop into existence. They magically appear before any analysis has taken place. If you haven’t analyzed your business, its competitors, the dynamics of competition, and more, claiming that you want to “be the technology leader” is just vague bloviation. It certainly does not help your organization understand how to move forward.
...
These kinds of intents and dreams are precursors to strategy, but they cannot all be accomplished, or at least not all at once. Effective strategy emerges out of an exploration of challenges, ambitions, resources, and competition. By confronting the situation actually being faced, a talented leader creates a strategy to further some elements out of the whole bundle of ambitions. Importantly, your ambitions are not a fixed and given starting point.
...
Diagnosis is the starting point in creating a strategy
...
In competition it is useful to look for asymmetries—ways in which competitors differ.
...
You don’t “pick” a strategy; you create it. Then you do your very best to choose among the alternatives you have created. Finally, you need to translate the idea into specific and coherent actions."

Trechos retirados de "The Crux - How Leaders Become Strategists" de Richard P. Rumelt.

sábado, abril 16, 2022

"become that target audience’s “obvious choice” supplier"

Mais um desfile de temas habituais neste blogue: eficientismo, objectivos versus consequências, obliquidade, originação de valor, clientes-alvo, monopólios informais.
"There seems to be consensus that the purpose of a business is to make money. In other words, success is equated with money. Therefore, everything is given a price tag including people, humanity, health, safety, organizational culture, work climate, values, morality, ethics, pride of workmanship, and the environment.
Consequently, based on theories of operational efficiency, decisions are reduced to an analytic process of determining which solution is economic and which is uneconomic. The one that costs less wins.
...
No one denies the necessity for a commercial enterprise to pursue revenue and a healthy profit margin. The criticism against “making money” is that it should not be professed as the purpose of a business system.
Rather, earning a profit margin is not the purpose of a business but a “prerequisite” for operating a sustainable business. Please do not disregard this distinction between purpose and prerequisite as a matter of semantics, for it is nothing of the sort. Profits are the applause for a job well done, and receiving a standing ovation is the cry for an encore. It is a show of being in demand; it is the proof of a success!
...
The price people are willing to pay for a product or service is equal to the perceived use value they anticipate receiving from their purchase or investment. Because not everyone has the same perception of what constitutes use value, not everyone is a prospective buyer of your brand or your kind of product or service—hence the recognition of market segmentation and the identification of different target audiences.
Rather than creating use value similar to one’s competitors, different expressions of use value can be created by changing the business’s transformation process.
...
The profit margin is thus equal to the utility that a product or service delivers to its intended target audience. Therefore, the challenge of any business, with the exception of monopolies and oligopolies, is to add more utility to its value proposition targeting a specific audience than its immediate competitors. In other words, pursuing this strategy to become that target audience’s “obvious choice” supplier—and thus standing out as the only choice in the hearts and minds of your market segment."

Trecho retirado de "The Root Cause: Rethink Your Approach to Solving Stubborn Enterprise-Wide Problems" de Hans Norden

quarta-feira, janeiro 26, 2022

Acerca da concorrência imperfeita


Roger Martin em "Is Strategy a Zero-Sum Game?", publicado no final de Dezembro passado, toca vários temas clássicos deste blogue.
"The first critique I get is that my insistence on pursuing a winning strategy is just too aggressive. The thought is that if the organization I am encouraging to win manages to figure out how to win, then someone else will lose in a zero-sum game in which society is no better off. [Moi ici: Gente que não conhece as toutinegras de MacArthur ou as paramécias de Gause, gente que continua no século XX e ainda pensa numa paisagem competitiva com um único pico
...
[Moi ici: Agora até o tema da concorrência perfeita ele mete ao barulho] Economists love ‘perfect competition.’ [Moi ici: A malta da tríade, lembram-se? Ainda ontem escrevi sobre eles] This is when numerous competitors compete in a given space — what I would call a particular Where-to-Play (WTP) ... Without competition, a monopoly provider would set price at B (the volume at which marginal revenue and marginal cost are equal) and the market would clear at a lower volume. Hence fewer customers would benefit from the offering, and all would pay a higher price than under vigorous competition. Thus, the absence of vigorous competition in this WTP results in a deadweight cost to society.

Thus, economists don’t like winning either! They dream of having competition in a given space look like this, in which (for example) six competitors duke it out in almost identical WTPs, approximating perfect competition. Nobody wins — they just play.
...
[Moi ici: Entra a concorrência imperfeita] My Dream is industries that evolve like the following:[Moi ici: Como não recordar o Senhor dos Perdões]
Customers are heterogeneous and when I think about a company’s WTP, I think of it as a circle with the customer who thinks the company’s offering is absolutely perfect, and hence puts the highest value on it, at the center of the company’s WTP circle.
...
In My Dream, rather than compete head-to-head with the same WTPs and same/similar HTWs, the six competitors spread out and reduce their overlap. Each competitor wins in a somewhat different WTP. Many more customers get an offering that is perfect for them. Competition happens — but it the boundary territories at the intersections of the individual WTPs, rather than across each competitor’s entire WTP. That ensures that while the competition won’t be as intense as in the Economist’s Dream, it will still be meaningful.[Moi ici: É isto que as toutinegras de MacArthur ilustram]
If each company pursues a winning strategy in its carefully defined WTP, each can prosper and achieve a level of profitability that enables it to innovate and move the market forward on behalf of its customers. [Moi ici: O meu clássico "Viver e deixar viver"]
...
Playing to win isn’t zero-sum or obsolete. It is the most positive sum thing that you can do. Winning sets up a competitive dynamic that makes customers, employees, communities, and investors better off over time and opens up possibilities for rather than works against productive partnerships."

sábado, janeiro 08, 2022

Puro sumo!!!

Para pessoas e para empresas. Puro sumo!!!

Acerca do i) recordo, para começar, "Managing the Unexpected - Sustained Performance in a Complex World" de Karl Weick e Kathleen Sutcliffe: 

"Preoccupation with failure, the first high-reliability organization (HRO) principle, captures the need for continuous attention to anomalies that could be symptoms of larger problems in a system."

Acerca do iii) recordo Youngme Moon e a mensagem de "Different" em "There’s nine times more to gain by elevating positive customers than by eliminating negative ones"

Acerca do iv) recordo David versus Golias em Lidar com os Golias!



sexta-feira, janeiro 07, 2022

Agricultura, como se aumenta a rentabilidade?

A propósito de "Trabalhadores precisa-se. Nos olivais, o chão está "solado de azeitona" porque não há ninguém para a apanhar" fiz este esquema:
Primeiro começamos com Erik Reinert acerca da rentabilidade da agricultura em "How Rich Countries Got Rich . . . and Why Poor Countries Stay Poor":
"Generally increasing returns goes with imperfect competition; indeed, the falling unit cost is one cause of the market power under imperfect competition. Diminishing returns - the inability to extend production (beyond a certain point) at falling cost - combined with the difficulty of product differentiation (wheat is wheat, while car brands are very different) are key elements in creating perfect competition in the production of raw material commodities. The exports of the rich contain the `good' effects - increasing returns and imperfect competition - whereas traditional exports of poor countries contain the opposite, the `bad' effects"
A baixa rentabilidade só permite pagar salários baixos, o que a par da demografia leva à falta de trabalhadores. O recurso a imigrantes é uma consequência natural desta "race to the bottom".

Como sair deste ciclo vicioso?

Aumentando a rentabilidade!

Como se aumenta a rentabilidade? Apostando na concorrência imperfeita. Duas possibilidades:
"Cooperativa Agrícola dos Olivicultores de Sousel quer continuar com olival tradicional para manter a qualidade do azeite" [Moi ici: Recordar, por exemplo, a minha relação com o azeite de produção intensiva]

segunda-feira, dezembro 13, 2021

Empreendedorismo e a Escola Austríaca

"1. Consumer sovereignty

Not only is the customer king, but all production aims to ultimately satisfy consumers in some sense by providing them with value. This value is entirely up to the consumer. Entrepreneurs can only provide the means, typically a good or a service, that help consumers become better off. Sometimes this requires educating the customer so that they understand the value of the product. And, typically, the value lies in their complete experience, not just what you sell.

2. Value determines price and costs are a choice

With value being in the eyes (and experience) of the consumer, the price they are asked to pay must be (much) lower. The entrepreneur’s job is to figure out at what price their product is attractive, and then choose a cost structure that allows for profit. In other words, the price is a guess based on what value consumers see in the product. 

...

3. Entrepreneurship is about creating tomorrow

...

“the ultimate source from which entrepreneurial profit and loss are derived is the uncertainty of the future constellation of demand and supply.'' What that means is individual entrepreneurs choose costs in the present to produce a product that must be sold in the near or distant future, whatever the market situation might be. That’s the uncertainty borne by the entrepreneur.

...

4. Seek to be a good monopolist

In standard economics models, competition is about offering the same or nearly the same goods competing on price. This is a terrible strategy for entrepreneurs, whose superpower is to facilitate value. ...

What benefits consumers most is entrepreneurs who aim to be good monopolists."


Trecho retirado de "Why Every Entrepreneur Should Study the Austrian School of Economics"

quarta-feira, dezembro 01, 2021

Promotor da concorrência imperfeita, dos monopólios informais e das rendas excessivas

"The neo-classical economists' poor understanding of how businesses operate also contributes to the problem. At the core of their economic theory of capitalism is perfect competition and equilibrium, a situation which produces very little profit. Any successful and profitable business enterprise rests, almost by definition, on some kind of rent-seeking. The poverty-stricken Third World corresponds most closely to conditions of diminishing returns and perfect competition, while the rich countries, whose exports are produced under conditions of Schumpeterian-dynamic imperfect competition, are `rent-seekers' whose rents lead to higher wages and a higher tax base. This failure to understand development as Schumpeterian imperfect competition is at the heart of the arguments against industrial policy. Anything that causes imperfect competition tends to be seen as contributing to `cronyism'.

Keynes saw investments resulting from what he called `animal spirits'. Without `animal spirits' - the will to invest in uncertain conditions - capital is sterile, both in the worlds of Joseph Schumpeter and Karl Marx. The motivating force behind `animal spirits' is the desire to maximize profits, thus upsetting the equilibrium of perfect competition."
Ontem, depois de ler isto fiquei a pensar no lema deste blogue, apregoado lá em cima no título e na sua forma mais completa aqui:
"Promotor da concorrência imperfeita, dos monopólios informais e das rendas excessivas"

Algo que descobri algures na primeira década do século XXI e que é considerado um sacrilégio pela Economia. Contudo, a solução para uma economia saudável, competitiva, produtiva, capaz de pagar bons salários e gerar lucros atraentes é por aqui.


Trecho retirado de "How Rich Countries Got Rich and Why Poor Countries Stay Poor" de Erik S. Reinert,

sexta-feira, novembro 26, 2021

Acerca do capitalismo

Reinert outra vez:

"Once capitalism has been understood as a system of imperfect competition and unintended consequences rather than as a system of perfect markets, it is then possible to use this insight to craft wise economic policies."

Trecho retirado de “How Rich Countries Got Rich . . . and Why Poor Countries Stay Poor”

segunda-feira, novembro 22, 2021

"Competition is for Losers"

Enquanto uso a terminologia "concorrência imperfeita" Peter Thiel usa a palavra "monopólio". A palavra monopólio está muito associada a protecção legal do governo de turno ou a cronyismo. No entanto, lá em cima no título do blogue uso "Promotor da concorrência imperfeita e dos monopólios informais", e ao longo dos anos tenho usado a palavra. Por exemplo, "Construir monopólios informais".

Neste vídeo Peter Thiel tem várias expressões que merecem reflexão:

sexta-feira, novembro 12, 2021

Mea culpa (parte II)

Escrevo regularmente neste blogue há mais de 15 anos. Às vezes sinto algum orgulho por causa das previsões em que acerto (por exemplo RaporalÓrbita ou Gráfica Mirandela), e por raramente ter escrito algo do qual me tenha de retratar.

No entanto, hoje gostaria de pôr preto no branco algo que quase soa a retratação. Embora seja mais o resultado de eu próprio ter cometido o pecado do jogador de bilhar amador que tantas vezes refiro aqui.

Herman Simon costuma escrever sobre a falsa percepção que o público tem acerca do lucro das empresas:
"What does the average citizen think about profit? 
...
We’ll start with what people think in the United States, where a survey posed the following question to a representative sample: “Just a rough guess, what percent profit on each dollar of sales do you think the average company makes after taxes?” The average response was 36%! This is very consistent with research that advertising guru David Ogilvy cites in his book Ogilvy on Advertising: “the average shopper thought Sears Roebuck made a profit of 37% on sales.” Sears’ true profit at that time was less than 5%.
Responses to similar questions in nine different polls between 1971 and 1987 ranged from 28 to 37% and averaged 31.6%. What is the truth? The actual average after-tax profit margins of US companies over the long term is around 5%. In other words, the respondents overestimated the level of corporate profits by a factor of six. We found very similar perceptions in a study conducted in Italy in 2019. Respondents there estimated net profit margins to be 38%.
People in Germany have also responded to surveys with similar questions. The answers varied between 15.75 and 24.15% with 20% on average. In Austria, a comparable number was 17%.7 In other countries we could not find similar surveys."(fonte 1)
As empresas ganham menos dinheiro do que as pessoas suspeitam. Então em Portugal, país de zombies e de apoio à manutenção de postos de trabalho com um sistema Ponzi encavalitado em empréstimos bancários, é comum justificar os baixos salários com a avareza dos patrões. Contudo, o problema é outro, a falta de concorrência imperfeita, a falta de inovação, a falta de diferenciação real, que leva a demasiada concorrência perfeita.

Ao longo dos anos o meu erro de raciocínio tem sido o de me ficar pelo pensamento de primeira ordem. Ainda ontem publiquei esta figura:
Enquanto outros falam de produtividade como condição para se ser competitivo, há muito que descobri que produtividade e competitividade são duas realidades distintas. 

Como trabalho com empresas concretas o meu foco é na sua competitividade e a coisa até funciona. Recordo os protestos contra os "ateliês" quando lembro a necessidade de preparar a Fase IV.

O que confesso nunca me passou pela cabeça foram as consequências de um mundo de empresas competitivas, mas não produtivas. Um mundo com salários cada vez mais estagnados não porque os patrões não queiram pagar mais, mas porque o negócio não dá mais. 
Um empresário, um patrão, não tem como responsabilidade mudar o mundo, tem como responsabilidade liderar a sua empresa. Por outro lado, o desafio de a manter à tona é tão grande que raramente encontra tempo para pensar no depois de amanhã, simplesmente reage, o quotidiano é que assume o comando. É cada vez mais difícil encontrar pessoas para trabalhar a receber os salários que pode pagar? Em vez da subida na escala de valor, temos a race to the bottom: Arranjar quem o faça no Brasil, ou na Moldávia ... ou uma prestação de serviços à la Odemira.

Por isso, os portugueses emigram

O que leio em "How Rich Countries Got Rich and Why Poor Countries Stay Poor" de Erik S. Reinert.
“Once a considerable gap in real wages has been created, the world market will automatically assign economic activities that are technological dead-ends - and therefore only require unqualified labour, for example, to produce baseballs - to low wage countries. [Moi ici: Daí as "vitórias de Pirro" sobre a Lituânia e a Polónia]
...
The competitiveness of a country is, according to OECD definition, to raise real wages while still remaining competitive on the world markets. In most of the Third World today this situation is turned upside down: wages are lowered in order to be internationally competitive. [Moi ici: Como não recordar a reportagem dos empresários do turismo algarvio que querem ir buscar filipinos e cabo verdianos porque supostamente os portugueses não querem trabalhar]) 
[Moi ici: BTW! Recordam-se da caridadezinha?]
Education is increasingly regarded as the key to expanding wealth in the Third World. In countries like Haiti, which specialize in non-mechanized production - in technological dead-ends - raising the level of education of the population will not help to increase the level of wealth in the population. In such countries the demand for educated personnel is minimal. Education is more likely to increase the propensity to emigrate. A strategy based on education succeeds only when combined with an industrial policy that also provides work for educated people, as happened in East Asia.
...
By emphasizing the importance of education without simultaneously allowing for an industrial policy that creates demand for educated people - as Europe has over the last 500 years - the Washington institutions are just adding to the financial burdens of poor countries by letting them finance the education of people who will eventually find employment only in the wealthy countries. An education policy must be matched by an industrial policy that creates demand for the graduates.[Moi ici: Entram aqui os dinheiros da Europa. Como appetizers recordo estas duas breves reflexões acerca da entrada massiça de dinheiro para investir, aqui e aqui]
...
Theory development led to what Schumpeter calls `the pedestrian view that capital per se propels the capitalist engine'. The West started thinking that by sending capital to a poor country with no entrepreneurship, no governmental policy and no industrial system, they could produce capitalism. The consequence is that today we virtually stuff money down the throat of countries with no productive structure - where this money could be profitably invested - because they are not allowed to follow the industrial strategy all the presently rich countries followed. Developing countries are given loans they cannot profitably utilize, and the whole process of development financing becomes akin to that of chain letters and pyramid games. Sooner or later the system breaks down, and the ones who designed it, standing close enough to the door when everybody rushes out, are able to make good financial profits, while the poor countries themselves are the losers. This is part of the mechanism that often creates larger flows of funds from the poor to the rich countries than the other way around, one of Gunnar Myrdal's `perverse backwashes' of poverty."[Moi ici: Reinert propõe o proteccionismo, mas o proteccionismo para um país na UE não é possível. Como resolver a situação sem sair da UE? Seguir a receita irlandesa, não confiar em irlandeses e atrair investimento estrangeiro apostado na concorrência imperfeita, não na extracção venenosa na agricultura e recursos naturais]
Saúdo Rui Tavares com o artigo "Portugal está preso numa armadilha de salários baixos" por lhe dar a importância que deve merecer. Muito certamente não concordarei com a receita de Rui Tavares para o solucionar, mas decididamente é o tema de fundo.

O mesmo tema, tratado por Eugénio Rosa, desvia-se para os salários da função pública. Como é que a função pública não pode deixar de ter salários estagnados se a riqueza criada está estagnada e há cada vez mais gente na função pública ou a depender do orçamento do Estado? Reinert escreve sobre isto quando refere que um barbeiro na Suécia é tão produtivo, em quantidade de trabalho, quanto um barbeiro em Portugal, mas o salário do barbeiro sueco é muito superior ao do barbeiro português, por causa da riqueza criada pelo resto da sociedade. Tal como um motorista de autocarro português que emigra e começa a trabalhar na Suiça como motorista de autocarro...

Fonte 1 - Trechos retirados de “No Company Ever Went Broke Turning a Profit” de Hermann Simon.

quarta-feira, novembro 10, 2021

"dynamic imperfect competition"

"will always be possible for a nation to specialize in economic activities where all the capital in the world will not be able to create innovation and productivity growth. This mechanism also makes it possible for a nation to specialize in being poor.

An important element in the huge `social problem' (as it was called) that dominated nineteenth-century European discourse was the existence of so-called home-workers (Heimarbeiter). They produced the articles that industry had not yet managed to mechanize, as part of a production process bereft of any increasing returns and any potential for innovation.

...

New technology and innovations demand and create new knowledge, producing economic activities characterized by high levels of knowledge and high levels of income. These industries are dominated by Schumpeterian and dynamic imperfect competition, high barriers to entry, high risks and high rewards. This contrasts with the perfect competition or commodity competition under which markets for raw materials operate. As innovations, products and processes mature and age, products fall like natural gravity in the index shown"


Trechos retirados de "How Rich Countries Got Rich and Why Poor Countries Stay Poor" de Erik S. Reinert.

terça-feira, novembro 09, 2021

"las empresas están actuando como dique de contención"

 

"“Pricing power”, the ability to pass costs to customers without harming sales, has long been prized by investors. Warren Buffett has described it as “the single most important decision in evaluating a business”. It is easy to see why. When hit with an unexpected expense, firms without pricing power are forced to cut costs, boost productivity or simply absorb the costs through lower profit margins. Those with pricing power can push costs onto customers, keeping margins steady."(fonte) [Moi ici: McDonald’s , PepsiCO, Procter and Gamble, ... tudo a subir preços nesta altura]

Entretanto, as empresas industriais portuguesas e espanholas:

"Los productos industriales se están encareciendo a ritmos de casi el 25%, un nivel no visto desde la Transición. El precio del petróleo se ha disparado un 101% en el último año; el del aluminio, un 62% y el del cobre se ha encarecido un 45%. Esta es la situación generalizada de las materias primas y los bienes intermedios, pero no es la realidad de la cesta de la compra de los españoles. El motivo es que las empresas están actuando como dique de contención de esta subida de los precios y trasladan a los consumidores finales solo una parte de la inflación real de los mercados mayoristas. Están absorbiendo la inflación en sus márgenes, lo que evita que los datos del IPC sean mucho peores y que se generen más efectos de segunda ronda.

...

Se está produciendo un escenario que es excepcional y, además, insostenible en el tiempo, ya que las empresas salen de la crisis del coronavirus en una situación financiera complicada y difícilmente podrán soportar en sus márgenes el encarecimiento de los costes sin trasladarlos a los precios finales."

Parece que estou em Punxsutawney a viver o mesmo dia repetido, dia após dia.

Entretanto, uma cana sacudida pelo vento:

quinta-feira, novembro 04, 2021

De volta à concorrência imperfeita

De volta à concorrência imperfeita:

"A small city-state devoid of resources but with a huge hinterland, like Hong Kong, may get rich in the same `natural' way as Venice and Holland did. Studying the inner mechanisms of such states, however, makes it clear that the principle of wealth creation - from the cost of a taxi licence in Hong Kong to the city's huge corporations - is not perfect competition, but rent seeking, that is, profiting from imperfect rather than from perfect competition."

Trecho retirado de "How Rich Countries Got Rich and Why Poor Countries Stay Poor" de Erik S. Reinert.

sexta-feira, outubro 29, 2021

"Perfect markets are for the poor"

Continuo a leitura de "How Rich Countries Got Rich and Why Poor Countries Stay Poor" de Erik S. Reinert

"Europeans observed early on that generalized wealth was found only in areas where agriculture was absent or only played a marginal role, and came to be seen as an unintended by-product when many diverse branches of manufacturing were brought together in large cities. Once these mechanisms were understood, wise economic policy could spread wealth outside these few 'naturally wealthy' areas. Policies of emulation could, indeed, also spread wealth to formerly poor and feudal agricultural areas, but they involved massive market interventions. For laggard nations market interventions and wise economic policies could substitute for the natural and geographical advantages that produced the first wealthy states. We can further imagine that export taxes on raw materials and import taxes on finished products were originally means for raising revenues in poor nations, but that a by-product of these measures was to increase wealth through the growth of domestic manufacturing capacity. [Moi ici: Há aqui qualquer coisa que julgo ser verdade no que Reinert escreve acerca da origem da riqueza. No entanto, torço o nariz à solução que ele propõe, pelo menos para Portugal. A Irlanda deu o salto com uma intervenção estatal longe de "export taxes on raw materials and import taxes on finished products". Um país sem capital e sem experiência não pode voar, só trepar. A única forma de voar é atrair capital e know-how]

...

Thus rivalry, war and emulation in Europe created a dynamic system of imperfect competition and increasing returns. New knowledge and innovations spread in the economy as increased profits and increased wages, and as larger bases for government taxation. European economic policy was based for centuries on the conviction that the introduction of a manufacturing sector would solve the fundamental economic problems of the time, creating much-needed employment, profits, higher wages, a larger tax base and a better circulation of the currency. ... Standard textbook economics which seeks to understand economic development in terms of frictionless `perfect markets' totally misses the point. Perfect markets are for the poor. It is equally futile to try to understand this development in terms of what economists refer to as `market failure'. Compared to textbook economics, economic development is a giant failure of perfect markets."

Alguns textos sobre a concorrência perfeita:

quarta-feira, outubro 27, 2021

Moi ici: Let that sink in deep!!!

Há muitos anos que uso a assinatura "promotor da concorrência imperfeita".

Hoje, comecei a leitura de "How Rich Countries Got Rich and Why Poor Countries Stay Poor" de Erik S. Reinert, publicado em 2007.

Já este ano li grande parte de um livro do mesmo Reinert que achei fascinante, "The Visionary Realism of German Economics: From the Thirty Years' War to the Cold War".

Há anos li "Why Nations Fail" de Acemoglu e Robinson e considerei que a hipótese dos autores tem razão de ser. Reinert tem outra base, vamos ler.

Entretanto, nas primeiras páginas de Reinert apanho:

"At this point it is necessary to introduce and explain two sets of key terms that describe the differences between the economic activities that typically dominate the poor countries and those that dominate the rich countries: `perfect' and `imperfect' competition and `increasing' and `diminishing' returns.

`Perfect competition' or `commodity competition' means that the producer cannot influence the price of what he produces, he is facing a `perfect' market and literally reads in the newspaper what the market is willing to pay. ... Perfect competition and diminishing returns are assumed to be the normal state of affairs in standard textbook economics.

...

Rich countries display generalized imperfect competition, activities subject to increasing returns, and, as I gradually began to understand, all have become rich in exactly the same way, through policies steering them away from raw materials and diminishing returns activities into manufacturing, where the opposite laws tend to operate."

BTW:

"The logic that died with the Berlin Wall was that it is better to have an inefficient manufacturing sector than not to have a manufacturing sector at all, and such an approach has led to falling real wages in many countries in Eastern Europe, Asia, Africa and Latin America."[Moi ici: Let that sink in deep!!!]