quinta-feira, março 23, 2017

Uma novela sobre Mongo (parte XXII)

 Parte Iparte IIparte IIIparte IVparte Vparte VIparte VIIparte VIIIparte IXparte Xparte XIparte XIIparte XIIIparte XIVparte XVparte XVIXVIIXVIIIparte XIXparte XX e parte XXI.

Retorno à parte XX e a uma provocação de há dias no Twitter:


A propósito de "This Chip Costs One Cent and Can Diagnose Everything From Cancer to HIV".

E já agora:





quarta-feira, março 22, 2017

Curiosidade do dia

Criticam o Dijsselbloem, no entanto:
  • constroem aeroportos para moscas;
  • torram dinheiro em estudos para TGV, o tal que faria a ligação de Madrid às praias;
  • semeiam auto-estradas sem circulação como cogumelos;
  • polvilham o país de estádios de futebol sem assistências;
  • decretam que as empresas de transportes se devem marimbar para o EBITDA;
  • querem critérios de fantochada para gerir a CGD;
  • ...
e o burro sou eu.

Para reflexão


"Simply, the minute one is judged by others rather than by reality, the mechanism becomes warped as follows. Firms that haven’t gotten bankrupt yet have something called personnel departments, with people trained into a discipline of dealing with other peoples. So there are metrics used and “evaluation forms” to fill.
.
The minute one has evaluation forms distortions occur.
...
the mere fact than an evaluation causes you to be judged, not by the end results, but by some intermediary metric that invites you to look sophisticated, bring that distortion."
Por isso é que políticos viciados em "picking winners" gostam deste "distortions occur" e preferem que sejam candidaturas avaliadas por eles a definir quem deve ter lugar no mercado em vez dos clientes.

Trechos retirados de "Surgeons Should Not Look Like Surgeons"

Quinino* e Mongo

Artesanal, crescimento orgânico e este gráfico:
Os ingredientes indicados para logo de seguida a metáfora de Mongo surgir na minha mente.
"Earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation were equal to 35 per cent of group revenues.
Rivals squeeze less juice from sales.
...
Fever-Tree is mixing with these bruisers as a lightweight with £100m in revenue and just 46 employees. Britvic, with a similar market worth, has 4,000 staff and revenue of £1.4bn.

Over the next few years, Fever-Tree aims to grow organically rather than through acquisition."
Como não pensar na cerveja artesanal...

Trechos e gráfico retirados de "Fever-Tree Drinks: domestic drama"

*Quinino - ingrediente da água tónica que lhe dá o sabor amargo. E que me faz recuar ao final dos anos 60 do século passado e ouvir o meu avô materno a falar dele como remédio em Angola.



"you need to understand value to find the prices that best fit your ..."

"You don't need to know pricing to understand value, but you need to understand value to find the prices that best fit your products, services, and strategic goals. Value management has three steps: creation, dollarization, and capture. These correspond to the deceptively simple questions I have asked throughout the book: What do you do for customers? What is it worth? How much of it will you capture? Only that last phase (capture) requires some knowledge of pricing."

Trecho e imagem retirados de Stephan M. Liozu em "Dollarizing Differentiation Value: A Practical Guide for the Quantification and the Capture of Customer Value"

"small slice of a huge market vs large slice of a small one"

Há dias reli Roger Martin em "The Big Lie of Strategic Planning" e voltei a apreciar este trecho:
"Companies in many industries prefer a small slice of a huge market to a large slice of a small one. The thinking is, of course, that the former promises unlimited growth potential. And there’s a certain amount of truth to that. But all too often, the size of the opportunity encourages sloppy strategy making. Why choose where to play or how to win when there’s a huge market to conquer? Anybody is a potential customer, so just go out and sell stuff.
.
But when anyone could be a customer, it is impossible to figure out whom to target and what those people actually want. The results tend to be an offering that is not captivating to anybody and a sales force that doesn’t know where to spend its time. This is when crisp strategy making and clear thinking about opportunities are most important."
Foi dele que me lembrei ao ler "Google Glass Didn't Disappear. You Can Find It On The Factory Floor":
"Google Glass fizzled out and was discontinued in the consumer market.
.
But now, it's getting a second life in the manufacturing industry.
...
Google Glass tells her what to do should she forget, for example, which part goes where. "I don't have to leave my area to go look at the computer every time I need to look up something," she says.
.
With Google Glass, she scans the serial number on the part she's working on. This brings up manuals, photos or videos she may need. She can tap the side of headset or say "OK Glass" and use voice commands to leave notes for the next shift worker."
E recordo que a locomotiva a vapor não surgiu para transportar pessoas, a sua primeira aplicação foi nas minas para substituir os cavalos no transporte de minério.

Nichos específicos permitem uma abordagem mais específica.

máquina a vapor minério

terça-feira, março 21, 2017

Curiosidade do dia

A clubite revela-se nestes pormaiores:
"o que é que Vítor Constâncio está lá a fazer".
Trecho retirado de "Belém acha "inacreditável" ameaça de BCE e Vítor Constâncio"

"You ain't seen nothing yet"

Ao ler "A idade como tendência":
"Os dias de casting de modelos na casa dos 20 anos e tamanhos pequenos ou, ainda, de tez branca, parecem estar a chegar ao fim, com as marcas de moda a começarem a ser mais representativas, especialmente quando se trata de usar modelos numa faixa etária diferente. A necessidade de mudança vem, ironicamente, dos números.
.
Aqueles com mais de 60 anos constituem o grupo em maior crescimento nas populações dos países ricos e o seu número deverá aumentar mais de um terço até 2030, de 164 para 222 milhões. Os consumidores mais velhos são também os mais ricos, graças à inflação dos preços de imóveis e às suas reformas generosas."
Subitamente lembrei-me de um texto escrito aqui no blogue em 2006, "Spray maritimo que precede o splash da onda":
"Um dia, os noticiários da TV, as passagens de modelos, os anúncios de TV, os enredos dos filmes, ... serão protagonizados por gente com mais de 60 anos. Serão o espelho da sociedade..."
Apetece repetir as palavras de Reagan:
"You ain't seen nothing yet"

"imagining a preferred future and then stepping backward toward the present"

Trechos que parecem retirados deste blogue:
"We’ve been trained to think of the future as a linear extension of what we know, typically imagining change as a 10 percent improvement (or decline) from what we see around us.
...
Technological, environmental and political changes will likely disrupt your business. How can you prepare for a different, even unimaginable world that will arrive faster than projected?
...
Once you’ve identified your preferred future, you can start to identify key activities and milestones that would help create that future.
.
Backcasting is the act of imagining a preferred future and then stepping backward toward the present, repeatedly probing what has to happen to enable each step.
.
Backcasting is anchored in an aspirational future state rather than being constrained by limitations of the current state. This allows people to create their own richly detailed stories of the future and leads naturally to the discussion: “How can our product/service do that?”"
Trechos retirados de "How Leaders Dream Boldly to Bring New Futures to Life"

Recordar temas como "Começar pelo fim" ou "Mais uma vez e sempre: Começar pelo fim!!!" ou "future-back" approach to strategy" ou "Transformar uma empresa em 3 passos"

Turn, turn, turn

Tudo é transiente, tudo é transitório, tudo é passageiro.

As estratégias são sempre passageiras, mais tarde ou mais cedo o mundo muda e as estratégias para lidar com ele têm de mudar sob pena de ficarem obsoletas.

Interessante como a transformação de um mercado de nicho num mercado maior acabou por tornar inadequada uma estratégia até então bem sucedida. O caso da Whole Foods, "How Whole Foods Can Emerge from a Slump", deve servir de aviso para quem trabalha para nichos que estão a crescer fortemente.

Conspiração (parte II)

Parte I.

A conspiração continua. Desta vez via "To change the game, change the business model":
"Change the interaction and you’ll find a different business model.
.
Seen from a traditional business perspective, businesses are just business models competing against each other; it’s why we have all this sameness out in the world. But what if you shift your perspective, look at things differently and change the components of the business model?"

segunda-feira, março 20, 2017

Curiosidade do dia

Então a culpa dos nossos males foi da troika, "Troika "cortou" a felicidade dos portugueses".

Assim, é difícil aprender a não voltar a cometer os mesmos erros.

PS: Há os que acreditam em pagar a dívida, trouxas, segundo outros.

Conspiração

Parece uma conspiração ... depois de "Cuidado com as explicações generalistas simplistas" encontro outro trecho que me fez regressar à tal reunião:
"You can dollarize anything!
...
I am always excited when I hear stories about companies that have transitioned from being a product-focused company deriving over 8o percent of their revenue from unit sales to a service-oriented one deriving over 8o percent of their revenue from consulting and other services. And this happens all within the same industry with the same customers! These companies accomplish this because they understand the value of all the things companies do, and they offer clients economically attractive alternatives. ... Similar to what you would do in product development or in reverse-engineering, you are using a cross-functional team to understand how much it would cost you to deliver a particular service. Then you try to understand the cost that a customer incurs when they perform that service themselves. These services could be maintenance, application decisions, plant or supply chain management, or any other areas that a company could potentially outsource. If you can document a way to offer that service more economically (cost savings) or do it better (creating a revenue opportunity), you have the ability to conduct a rational, value-based talk with customers."
Trechos retirados de "Dollarizing Differentiation Value: A Practical Guide for the Quantification and the Capture of Customer Value"


Viemos de longe e o que nós andámos para aqui chegar! (parte II)

Há dias o @nticomuna chamou a atenção para este desempenho a nível do turismo (dados do INE):

Recordar "A alternativa de qualidade" e, sobretudo, "A economia não é um jogo de soma nula".

Até que enfim que leio opiniões mais avisadas do sector da hotelaria:
"CEO do Vila Galé assume que o alojamento local completa oferta turística.
...
"Não sou nada radical e acho que há espaço para todos. O alojamento local tem o seu papel. Em alguns sítios não existiam hotéis e por isso vieram colmatar uma lacuna de falta de alojamento. E outros vieram captar um público que prefere aquele tipo de alojamento", diz o hoteleiro, sublinhando: "Enquanto hotéis temos é de perceber o que está a atrair as pessoas para o alojamento local em algumas situações em detrimento dos hotéis.""
Quase que apetece repetir o título "Viemos de longe e o que nós andámos para aqui chegar!"

Talvez seja explicado por aquela teoria que defendo: infelizmente, na maioria das associações, quem chega ao seu poder são os elementos mais conservadores, os que têm mais a ganhar com o manobrar das relações com o poder regulador/legislador.

Recordar "o poder, para o bem ou para o mal, das associações" e, sobretudo, "O poder das associações e nas associações"

O truque do numerador

Julgo que percebo o porquê da relação de amor-ódio com a produtividade referida aqui:
"I have a love-hate relationship with ‘Productivity’. On the one hand, productivity, in the right circumstances, is an essential part of being an efficient business and delivering value to your customers. Its measurement is also invaluable in assessing the effectiveness of your efforts to improve. However, far too many businesses believe that they can increase productivity simply by focusing on productivity – manipulating the inputs and outputs of the productivity metric."
Julgo que o autor considera produtividade e eficiência como equivalentes. Na equação da produtividade:
O truque está em perceber que nada nos obriga a manter constante o numerador. Quando percebemos que não estamos prisioneiros de um numerador constante, percebemos que produtividade pode ser mais do que eficiência, pode ser eficácia, pode ser aumento do preço unitário. O truque é tão importante que resolvi fazer da sua divulgação uma das minhas missões mais importantes.

Recordar "Acerca da produtividade, mais uma vez (parte I)" (Agosto de 2011)



Trecho retirado de "We need to stop confusing productivity with business performance"

Que faz o quê no ecossistema

Fiquei contente por descobrir em "Dollarizing Differentiation Value: A Practical Guide for the Quantification and the Capture of Customer Value" coisas que escrevo aqui no blogue desde sempre e que não vejo muito replicadas:
"Finally, we have the common situation where you sell through distribution. This could be sales through an industrial distributor or solutions provider, but the most challenging situation is when you sell to consumers via a retailer. These B2B2C situations require two distinct value propositions and value stories, which means you have to expend twice the effort. You can't afford to skip one of these dollarization and story creation efforts if you want to know the full size of your value pool and take advantage of it. The retailer will require the kinds of argumentation you have created in this process so far: rational, fact-driven, professional, and fully dollarized, as I explain in figure 7.10. 

The consumer story may also be dollarized, but it will depend heavily on an emotional component, too. You are using your stories to manage and influence perceptions. Getting close to consumers changes how you extract information, manage differentiation, and do the dollarization. Start by talking to customers first, getting their vocabulary, and getting the facts or a range of facts. But keep in mind that the benefits are often emotional in a way that may defy straightforward dollarization.
...
Your strongest position comes when you can demonstrate a "pull" effect for the retailers, which means you can document that your value stories to consumers are driving demand in general—in the best case, demand at that particular retailer. The same kinds of communication challenges exist in any multichannel situation, as described in figure 7.11. You have to understand who does what in your ecosystem, [Moi ici: Até o termo ecossistema é um termo com marca registada aqui no blogue!!!] and therefore who is a recipient of messages and who is both a recipient and a multiplier. You need to understand who you are talking to and what kinds of value messages they want to hear on their own terms."
Recordar postais como:


domingo, março 19, 2017

Curiosidade do dia

Imagem retirada de "Schäuble: quem nos avisa nosso amigo é"

You are supposed to win deals

A fazer lembrar um poema de Brecht este texto "So Good It Sells Itself":
"Your product is not so good that it sells itself. If it were, you would be unnecessary.
.
Your product may be far better than your competitors’ products.
...
Your product may be different from anything on the market now.
...
Your product may produce better outcomes.
...
Your competitors believe their product is better than yours.
...
The reason you want a product that is so good that it sells itself is so that you don’t have to sell. You want to make selling easy, and you believe—mistakenly—that your product, your service, and your solution is what is supposed to win deals. The very opposite is true: You are supposed to win deals."

Cuidado com as explicações generalistas simplistas

Nos últimos anos temos lido aqui e acolá acerca do regresso do vinil, do regresso da cassete, do regresso da livraria, do regresso dos jogos de tabuleiro.

Há dias numa reunião alguém defendia uma tese muito interessante, contrária ao senso comum do mainstream, acerca da decadência, ou antes, acerca das causas da decadência nas vendas de um produto supostamente vítima da internet.

Lembrei-me logo dessa reunião ao ler:
"IN GRANITE CITY, ILLINOIS, a sleepy town of 29,000 where the laws of time seem not to apply, a just-opened Family Video storefront beckons customers with signs promoting the latest Hollywood blockbusters. Inside, long rows of DVDs line aisles festooned with placards offering two movie rentals for a dollar, and at the register a smiling cashier greets regulars by name.
...
Hoogland insists that Family Video had no trouble competing with bigger players, [Moi ici: Blockbuster e Movie Gallery] and he sees few parallels between those companies and his own. “Everybody thought the reason they went away was because of digital,” he says. “But in reality that wasn’t the case. They weren’t very well-run businesses. They had a lot of debt, leases that were poorly negotiated, and they also were sharing revenue with studios quite a bit. They made a lot of poor decisions.”
.
Family Video has taken a different approach. Instead of accepting discounted movies in exchange for agreements to split revenue, as Blockbuster did, it has opted to buy films outright and keep 100% of rental proceeds, which has paid off in the long run. Hoogland has also kept his stores entirely company-owned, and he keeps costs down by making many of the items needed for new locations in-house—everything from shelving to point-of-sale software. Most important, though, the company owns just about all the real estate underpinning its stores. As a result, Hoogland has been able to adapt now that sales are beginning to fall. He has shrunk the square footage of many of the video stores, put up drywall and leased out space to other companies, like Subway and H&R Block.
.
He has also experimented with ventures of his own, using his properties to launch 11 fitness centers, an electronics-repair chain called Digital Doc and 149 Marco’s Pizza franchises (making him the brand’s single largest franchisee)."
O digital reduz a procura mas essa redução pode ser atenuada com uma gestão inteligente e fazendo da loja uma plataforma para vários negócios.

Trechos retirados de "The Last Video Chain: The Inside Story Of Family Video And Its $400 Million Owner"

Estratégia executada por um portfolio de projectos

Esta ideia:
"What makes the strategic journey unique is that it’s perpetual – you never actually reach your destination. It is a highly uncertain journey where the terrain is constantly shifting and there are more things outside of your control than within them. It is much more like an explorer’s journey through the wilderness than it is a highway trip. More and more it is a journey where following the familiar, well-trodden path can get you hopelessly lost before you even realise that you are off course.
...
Projects are the perfect vehicle for today’s strategic journey
.
In the Tao Te Ching, Chinese philosopher Lao Tzu said a journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step. When talking about a strategic journey, strategic improvement projects are the most effective way to take those steps. Through these projects, and a project-mindset, we can take decisive action toward our strategic goals… one step at a time.
...
Most importantly, they are short-duration, hard-hitting activities that can be carried out by a relatively small cross-functional team. They should be targeted on a single specific outcome that delivers strategic value – either on its own or as one phase in a longer program – rather than on low-value activities."
É seguida por mim há vários anos:
"Quando falo de sistemas de gestão tento passar a ideia de que o sistema de gestão ideal traduz-se num portfolio de iniciativas, num portfolio de projectos, alinhados por uma estratégia. Tudo o resto é treta de consultor e de auditor, para justificar honorários.
...
Só as iniciativas, quando implementadas, quando executadas, mudam uma organização. Tudo o resto, estratégia, mapa da estratégia, balanced scorecard, indicadores, metas,... não passa de conversa de café, enquanto não começarmos a mudar a realidade!!!" (Junho de 2007)
E:
"Um sistema de gestão concebido desta forma, é na essência uma estrutura móvel, um portfolio de projectos de melhoria," (Fevereiro de 2007)

Trechos retirados de "Why projects are the key to bringing your strategy to life"