Acerca do caminho para Mongo (parte VIII)

Parte I, parte II, parte III, parte IV, parte V, parte VI e parte VII.
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Tenho escrito muito aqui no blogue sobre a fragmentação que caracteriza Mongo. Algo que nunca abordei de forma explícita, embora seja uma condição necessária para o triunfo da economia da partilha e dos fazedores  para nichos, as plataformas.

"Concentration: Emerging scale and scope operators will fuel and benefit fragmentation...Concurrent with the fragmentation occurring in the product innovation and commercialization space, concentration will begin to take place within parts of the economy that support niche operators....Players generate value by providing information, resources, and platforms to fragmented players, leveraging resources such as large-scale technology infrastructure or big data..As performance pressures intensify in tandem with barriers coming down, fragmentation will accelerate. Large-scale infrastructure providers and rich platforms will emerge to connect these fragmented players with resources within their ecosystems....The first scale-and-scope role is the infrastructure provider....The second scale-and-scope role is the aggregation platform. Aggregation platforms enable connections among fragmented players, helping to dismantle the kinds of barriers to entry, commercialization, and learning ...The final scale-and-scope role is the agent.Two types of agents exist: the consumer agent and the talent agent."

Curiosidade do dia

"Empresas espanholas com o nível mais baixo de endividamento desde 1998" 

vs

"Terramoto no BES já está a abalar as empresas"

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Duas prioridades, duas orientações distintas.

"Great businesses, in the final analysis, are built by passion"

Gosto muito desta reflexão:

"Competitive advantage is far from arbitrary.  It does not come from Excel spreadsheets or PowerPoint decks, but from how a firm sees and fulfills its purpose.  Great strategy starts then, not with analysis, but from defining and committing to a mission.
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Strategic approaches usually begin as conscious choices, but over time they become ingrained in the culture and operations of the enterprise.
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That culture plays a crucial role when the time comes for a strategic shift.  Business models don’t last.  So when a company hits hard times and management wants to alter is strategic approach, they often find that it’s much harder than simply coming up with a plan and executing it.  If the strategy doesn’t align with the mission, the organization will reject it.
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We usually think of strategy as a rational, analytic activity, with teams of MBA’s poring over spreadsheets.  We often forget that strategy has to have a purpose and that purpose is almost always personal and emotive.
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Great businesses, in the final analysis, are built by passion.  Strategies can come and go, but the mission of the enterprise is fundamental to directing action."

Dá para recordar a experiência da Viarco, dá para recordar as estórias que me contaram no passado Sábado sobre os senhores do Excel que não acreditam nos tipos que vendem alheiras gourmet, "E pur si muove!"

Recordar:

• "Parece uma história tirada deste blogue"; 
• "Outra componente da concorrência imperfeita"
• "Ajudamos PMEs a fazerem batota (parte III)"
• "Os Muggles só conhecem folhas de cálculo"
• ""Value it's a feeling not a calculation""

Trechos retirados de "How Your Mission Drives Your Strategy"

"É preciso sair do euro, para salvar os exportadores" dizem os ilusionistas

"Nos últimos anos observou-se uma tendência de redução do peso relativo dos países da Zona Euro como países de destino das exportações portuguesas. No ano 2005, 68,5% dos bens nacionais exportados tinham como destino os países da Zona Euro, tendo o seu peso descido para 59,3% em 2013."

Cada vez mais é uma certeza para mim, os que querem sair do euro usam como argumento a dificuldade em ser competitivo nas exportações. Contudo, isso não passa de uma desculpa, na verdade querem é poder voltar a enganar as pessoas com a ilusão da inflação, porque o desempenho dos exportadores está aí para os desmentir.
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Trecho retirado de "Estatísticas do Comércio Internacional 2013" publicado pelo INE.

Acerca da concorrência imperfeita

Qual é o descritivo deste blogue, lá em cima, ao lado de David?

"Promotor da concorrência imperfeita e dos monopólios informais"

 Agora atentem nisto:

"Economists use two simplified models to explain the difference: perfect competition and monopoly.
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"Perfect competition" is considered both the ideal and the default state in Economics 101. So-called perfectly competitive markets achieve equilibrium when producer supply meets consumer demand. Every firm in a competitive market is undifferentiated and sells the same homogeneous products. Since no firm has any market power, they must all sell at whatever price the market determines.
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The opposite of perfect competition is monopoly. Whereas a competitive firm must sell at the market price, a monopoly owns its market, so it can set its own prices. Since it has no competition, it produces at the quantity and price combination that maximizes its profits.
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To an economist, every monopoly looks the same, whether it deviously eliminates rivals, secures a license from the state or innovates its way to the top. I'm not interested in illegal bullies or government favorites: By "monopoly," I mean the kind of company that is so good at what it does that no other firm can offer a close substitute.
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Capitalism is premised on the accumulation of capital, but under perfect competition, all profits get competed away. The lesson for entrepreneurs is clear: If you want to create and capture lasting value, don't build an undifferentiated commodity business."

 Recordar "Monopólios, eu gosto muito deles" e "Cartão de visita"

Trechos retirados de "Competition Is for Losers"

Tinha de ser criativo ;-)

"As a side note on the accuracy of this government data, in a previous role at IKEA, when I was a much younger man, I was responsible for filling out the monthly government retail surveys for the Census Bureau. The government drones collecting this data do not check it. They do not require proof that it is right. It is self reported by retailers across the country. Filling out this crap for the government was about as low on my priority list as whale shit. If I was really busy, I’d make the numbers up, scribble them on the form and put it in the mail. The numbers the government are accumulating are crap. And then they massage the crap. And then they publish the crap as if it means something. It’s nothing but crap.
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When you see the headlines touting strong retail sales, you need to consider what you are actually seeing in the real world."

Isto fez-me recuar ao final dos anos 80 do século passado. Era um "reles estagiário" numa empresa a quem coube em sorte preencher um inquérito sobre o investimento e a investigação na empresa onde eu trabalhava.
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Acontece que eu nunca tinha lidado com aquele tipo de tema, não sabia quem tinha a informação, nem percebia porque é que tinha de ser um ignorante a preencher aquilo. Tinha de ser criativo ;-)
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No entanto, nunca falhei um preenchimento e envio para uma agência qualquer governamental.
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Trecho retirado "Kohl's And The Rest Of The Retailers Are In Deep Trouble".

Curiosidade do dia

Fiquei fascinado com este testemunho do Portugal anónimo que tem suportado esta comunidade há mais de oito séculos.
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Em Aldeia da Mota, Carvalhais, São Pedro do Sul, Viseu, Portugal.

BTW, que pena não ter fotografado o arruinado Solar dos Malafaia em Santa Cruz da Trapa, ainda tão bonito e imponente.

Gente de parabéns

"As exportações do setor das conservas de pescado em Portugal atingiram, em 2013, as 53 mil toneladas, ao nível do máximo histórico de 1923, segundo um estudo feito pelo antigo Subdiretor-Geral das Pescas António Duarte de Almeida.
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O estudo revela que "o setor conserveiro exporta tradicionalmente cerca de 70% da sua produção, representando mais de um quarto das exportações nacionais de produtos da pesca".
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a produção aumentou e a exportação de conservas de sardinha registou um aumento de 39% em volume e de 62% em valor nos últimos quatro anos, tendo havido ainda uma maior diversificação para a utilização de cavala, a par da sarda e do atum.
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as poucas fábricas de conservas em funcionamento, após terem sobrevivido aos apertos e dificuldades dos anos e períodos mais difíceis por que passou este sector produtivo, estão agora a produzir bastante mais do que o dobro das que existiam há quatro anos e tanto como as quatro centenas existentes em 1923", considera o antigo responsável pelas Pescas."

Trechos retirados de "Exportações de conservas de peixe igualam em 2013 máximo de 1923"

Desenhar cenários

Ao ler "Scenarios: A Hero’s Journey across Turbulent Systems":

"From simple causal loops, participant discussion builds more complex system maps, portraying (in this case) three distinct dynamic systems creating different potential outcomes for the global business environment over the next ten or so years."

Não pude deixar de fazer a ligação com a técnica que utilizo "assistia do seu acampamento, amedrontado, acobardado, aos desafios arrogantes do gigante Golias e..."
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Recordar:

Acerca do value-based pricing

"1. Price based upon your value, not your cost.
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The costs do not determine the price, [Moi ici: À atenção dos ministros da saúde que acham que os medicamentos devem ter um preço baseado na transparência dos custos] let alone the value. It is precisely the opposite; that is, the price determines the costs that can be profitably invested in to make a product desirable for the customer, at an acceptable profit for the seller.”
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In other words, the price is dictated by what the consumer is willing to pay. Period. And the costs to provide that good or service dictate how much or even whether the supplier provides them.
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2. All services are not created equal
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At its core, value pricing asserts that price is a subjective, not objective, measure of value. Your price should reflect what your customer is willing to pay – or said differently, the benefit they perceive. But, do all customers perceive value the same way?
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Depending on your industry, the answer is probably “no.”
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3. Don’t underprice yourself.
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Your price is a signal of your value. The lower your price, the lower your perceived value.
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4. Provide your customers with options…
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5. …but don’t provide too many options.
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If a business provides its customers with too many options, they run the risk of paralyzing the customer with indecision."

Trechos retirados de "Everything You Need to Know About Value-Based Pricing"

Curiosidade do dia

Esta manhã, na pista do jogging, encontrei esta evidência que restou de uma Genetta genetta (gineta) atropelada.

David tem tudo a ganhar em fugir de um confronto directo com Golias (parte III)

Parte I e parte II.
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Não esquecer o "disclaimer" da parte I: é perigoso e simplista comparar a competição entre unidades económicas a uma guerra entre inimigos. A economia não é necessariamente um jogo de soma nula. No entanto, há algumas lições e paralelismos interessantes.
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Esta frase é interessante para as PMEs:

“there are two types of warfare, asymmetric and stupid.” 

Como é que a sua empresa cria assimetria a seu favor?
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E como a paisagem competitiva enrugada está sempre a dançar e a mudar de forma, de repente, a assimetria que joga a nosso favor pode desaparecer e passar para a posse de outros.
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Como é que a sua empresa avalia o futuro das assimetrias de que depende hoje?

Acerca da incerteza sectorial

No país dos calimeros, sempre a suspirar por crescimento sustentado por impostagem aos contribuintes actuais ou futuros, convinha perceber o papel da crescente incerteza:

"It’s a cliché to say that the world is more uncertain than ever before, but few realize just how much uncertainty has increased over the past 50 years. To illustrate this, consider that patent applications in the U.S. have increased by 6x (from 100k to 600k annually) and, worldwide, start-ups have increased from 10 million to almost 100 million per year.  That means new technologies and new competitors are hitting the market at an unprecedented rate.  Although uncertainty is accelerating, it isn’t affecting all industries the same way. That’s because there are two primary types of uncertainty — demand uncertainty (will customers buy your product?) and technological uncertainty (can we make a desirable solution?) — and how much uncertainty your industry faces depends on the interaction of the two." 

 Trecho retirado de "The Industries Plagued by the Most Uncertainty"

Mais importante que o preço e o produto

Um texto que reflecte uma preocupação constante neste blogue e na minha actuação nas PMEs, "Could This Be More Important Than Price And Product?":

"what could ultimately be more important than price and product as it relates to the ultimate purchase decision by a consumer: customer service.
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It cannot be overstated just how vital and paramount customer service is to the overall customer experience. How can it be given the customer-centric world we now live in?"

Curiosidade do dia

Fruta da época.

Tornar a competição imperfeita, alterando as regras (parte II)

Parte I.
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Na linha da reflexão sobre alterar as regras do mercado, orquestrar uma alteração no ecossistema da procura:

"Companies fail to identify future opportunities because they do not have fresh business models
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Products and companies do not differentiate winners from losers; it is the right business models that do.
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Business model innovation is more profitable and more sustainable than product innovation and is badly needed in Europe today.
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Global competition requires a more holistic approach to business development that typically reflects business model thinking.
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overcoming the dominant logic of their industry remains the biggest barrier for experienced managers. Some innovators do it accidentally, some intuitively, but rather seldom as a systematic leadership task.
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The biggest challenge is learning how to unlearn. This is a challenge that should be taken up by business schools."

Trechos retirados de "The danger in missing the innovation moment".

Mais uma vez o exemplo do têxtil e vestuário

"As exportações da indústria têxtil portuguesa cresceram 10% nos primeiros 7 meses do ano, face ao mesmo período de 2013, para atingirem os 2,819 milhões de euros."

Trecho retirado de "Exportações têxteis mantêm crescimento"

E que histórias sobre a sua oferta costuma divulgar?

"An experience can consist of a product, for example a theatre play. An experience can also be a supplement to the product, such as a dinner at a certain restaurant, or the experience can be the whole package, making the experience not just a product, but a mental process, a state of mind, for instance an evening out combining dining and seeing a play. The main point here is that experiences are always more than just the product. The core of the product might be an experience, like a theatre play, but it is always more than this: it includes where it takes place, the décor, whether the seats are good or not and so forth. One can also gain an experience via technology, such as the web net or watching television. The experience can also be a supplement to a good or a service. It is not the product, but the supplements of it which provide the consumer with the experience. It is not the shoes, but the fact that these shoes are fashionable and show who you are, which is the experience.
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This is an experience you cannot get from just any pair of shoes. It is the design, the marketing, the usage and symbolic value of the shoes that makes them an experience. The shoes acquire a story or a theme and it is the story or the theme, rather than the product, which the consumers buy and cherish in the experience economy. The story or the theme is constructed to sell whatever the product might be, whether tangible or intangible: shoes, vacations, music, films, food, museum visits or events."

E que histórias sobre a sua oferta costuma divulgar? E que histórias sobre a sua oferta ganham ressonância no mercado?
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Quanto tempo dedica a pensar nas histórias que podem ajudar a criar a experiência adequada aos seus clientes-alvo?

Trecho retirado de "Introduction to experience creation" de Per Darmer and Jon Sundbo incluído em "Creating Experiences in the Experience Economy"

´Mais uma vez o exemplo do mobiliário

As exportações de mobiliário luso cresceram 10% em 2013.
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Nada mau!
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E como está a correr 2014?

"As exportações portuguesas de mobiliário e colchoaria aumentaram 12% até julho, em termos homólogos, para 820 milhões de euros, evidenciando que “o setor é cada vez mais uma certeza nos planos de negócio das empresas”, divulgou esta quinta-feira a APIMA."

Acerca do caminho para Mongo (parte VII)

Parte I, parte II, parte III, parte IV, parte V e parte VI.
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O relatório da Deloitte (ver parte V) prevê, como o fazemos aqui há vários anos, a fragmentação da oferta e procura em nichos e tribos que constituirão Mongo, o Estranhistão:

"Fragmentation will occur at different rates and to varying degrees across the economy. Much of the fragmentation is likely to occur in product design and commercialization activities.
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As fragmented players focus on product innovation and commercialization, what will happen to the established companies of today, and how will they capitalize on their advantages of scale or scope?"

Um exemplo interessante pode ser encontrado aqui "A Big Mac, Coke and side order of decline":

"Have many big consumer brands peaked? I ask this question because I believe a number of the world’s biggest products appear to be in structural decline....Sugary, carbonated beverages are seen by the younger generation as unhealthy. Once such trends become established they are difficult to reverse....younger customers are visiting McDonald’s less, and going instead to rival fast-casual chains. Diners want fresher, healthier food and a more bespoke offering. And what happens in America is likely to be followed in other territories....It may be that the health issues challenging Coca-Cola and McDonald’s are specific to those market leaders. But I suspect other factors are at play too. Customers younger than 30 are more promiscuous in their brand choices and have less product loyalty. The digital revolution has brought almost total price transparency, diminishing the ability of brands to charge more. Retailers are embracing own-label to defend their margins....
In both alcoholic and soft drinks, for example, almost all the growth is coming from smaller, independent producers."