sexta-feira, março 26, 2010
Esquizofrenia analítica... por causa de 0,6%
quinta-feira, março 25, 2010
Modelos mentais e intuições de políticos
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É isso que traduz grande parte do Programa de Estabilidade e Crescimento, o mesmo que as oposições parecem decididas a deixar passar para uma fase legislativa. Não deviam: não porque tenha erros, mas porque desvaloriza a importância que os mercados dão hoje ao modelo de Estado que cresce à custa de impostos."
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“The heart of the problem is the formation of hidden sets of rules, or mental models, that once formed are extremely difficult to change. Mental models are the core concepts of the corporation, the beliefs and assumptions, the cause-and-effect relationships, the guidelines for interpreting language and signals, the stories repeated within the corporate walls.”
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““… mental models the “theoretical frameworks that help investors better understand the world.”
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"Mental models are invisible in the corporation. They are neither explicit nor examined, but they are pervasive. When well crafted, mental models allow management to anticipate the future and solve problems. But once constructed, mental models become self-reinforcing, self-sustaining, and self-limiting. And when mental models are out of sync with reality, they cause management to make forecasting errors and poor decisions. The assumption of continuity, in fact, is precisely the kind of disconnect with reality that leads corporations into flawed forecasting and poor decisions.”
Intuição e modelos mentais
experience, and cultural experience. The richer mental models of experts ... include more knowledge and also enable the experts to see more connections. These are two defining features of complexity.
The mental models of experts are more complex than those of other people."
Experience and patterns produce mindsets. The more experience we have, the more patterns we have learned, the larger and more varied our mindsets and the more accurate they are. We depend heavily on our mindsets. Yet our mindsets aren’t perfect and can mislead us.
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The mindsets that reflect our experience and power our expertise can, on occasion, cause our downfall. Mindsets aren’t good or bad. Their value depends on how well they fit the situation in which we find ourselves. Mindsets help us frame situations and provide anchors for making estimates."
O que significa ter uma moeda forte
quarta-feira, março 24, 2010
Pensamento sistémico
Ah, se fôssemos mais produtivos !
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Benjamim Zander
Para lá da razão
Analytical and statistical methods can pick up subtle trends in the data that our intuitions would miss. They can show us when the regularities we think we see are really just chance connections. They can help up appraise the size of different effects so we can take the effects into account more accurately. On the other hand, analytical methods often miss the context of a situation, and they can result in misleading recommendations.
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Intuitive judgments reflect the experiences we’ve had and can help us respond quickly to situations. They are sensitive to context and nuance, letting us read situations and also read other people. We can make successful decisions without using analytical methods, but we cannot make good decisions without drawing on our intuitions. Yet our intuitions aren’t foolproof, and we always have to worry that they are going to mislead us.
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Research showing that a statistical formula can outperform an expert doesn’t mean that the expert is flawed. It just means that the statistics do better in certain types of circumstances. Analytical methods can sometimes outperform experts, particularly if these methods improve on the judgments made by experts, but the methods may not be as valuable as their developers argue.”
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Trecho de Gary Klein retirado de “Streetlights and Shadows - Searching for the Keys to Adaptive Decision Making”
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Admitamos que o mundo lá fora existe!
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Os humanos usam os seus sentidos para operarem no mundo. Os humanos usam a razão para operarem no mundo. Contudo a razão, por mais preciosa que seja, e é, não passa de uma ferramenta tosca incapaz de perceber o mundo na sua complexidade.
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Assim, quem confia apenas na razão… vai entrar em contradição, mais tarde ou mais cedo, por que confia numa ferramenta incompleta, vai cair numa teia e perder o pé.
Um exemplo concreto
terça-feira, março 23, 2010
Calçado
Há que escolher!!! (parte III)
Traditionally, all three competitors aimed to cover as much of the market as possible, being active in every segment and selling the maximum number of units in order to take advantage of economies of scale. This strategy was not particularly successful, because each company had limited resources (for R&D, distribution channels, service, and so on) and one competitor might simply offer greater customer value in a particular cell.
Market shares were fiercely contested, which in turn ruined margins. The competitors therefore started to focus. If we look at the situation shown in
Fig. 11.10, we see that the overall market leader Aspen, a genuine hidden champion, is no longer present in the two right columns of the competition map. Several years ago, Aspen, which is primarily renowned for the quality of its engines but otherwise delivers few frills, withdrew from the full-equipment and turbo/high-performance product segments. The company now concentrates on its four “natural spaces” (each shown with an A) in the two left columns, namely large and small engines for professionals and brand-oriented customers. All of its resources, from R&D to marketing and advertising, are channeled into these segments. The segments of semi-professionals and private customers are of secondary importance, unless these customers are extremely brand-oriented with a correspondingly high willingness to pay. In contrast to Aspen, Rextar and Konrad are less clearly positioned. These companies waste considerable resources on fighting for the cells in the two right-hand columns, which Aspen no longer actively pursues. Konrad is stuck in several less attractive segments and attacks Rextar in the cell of small engines for private customers, apparently to gain leadership in the entire noncommercial segment. Rextar hits back in several cells, repeatedly resulting in price wars and other forms of ruinous competition. So while Rextar and Konrad are fighting price wars in several segments, Aspen keeps its distance. Each company must respect the “natural spaces” of the others. Konrad and Rextar refrain from attacking Aspen’s natural space, while Aspen controls the competition and does not become a pawn in their game. This is the role for which a genuine hidden champion should strive."
Palavras para quê (parte II)
segunda-feira, março 22, 2010
O folclore da auto-avaliação nas escolas
- o pensamento em relações de causa-efeito;
- o reforço do locus de controlo interno;
Há que escolher!!! (parte II)
domingo, março 21, 2010
Patriotismo, infantilização e verdade
Há que escolher!!!
- "patent protection,
- powerful trademark or logo,
- intensive relationships and familiarity with customers, and
- artistic designs with frequent updates."
sábado, março 20, 2010
IMHO a solução não passa por aí...
Acerca da formulação de estratégias
Hermann Simon no seu livro “Hidden Champions of the Twenty-First Century” escreve estas palavras acerca da estratégia:
“Strategy is the art and science of developing and employing a company’s resources to secure profitable, long-term survival. As strategy itself always implies creating something original and different, strategy development cannot be a pure science. The French philosopher Henri Bergson pointed out in 1907 that science must deal with repeatable phenomena if new laws are to be discovered. Strategy, on the other hand, cannot be repeated or imitated. The great error of many strategists is that they are continuously looking for the laws of strategy. They study the success stories of yesterday in order to imitate them. This is the wrong course, even if it involves following the lead of the hidden champions. Superior strategies result only from creativity, originality, and lateral thinking. An American proverb states, “Find out what everybody else is doing, then do it differently.” The only problem is that no one tells us what “differently” means. We have to find this out for ourselves.”
Algumas sugestões para a formulação da estratégia:
“There is not even a standard procedure for strategy development. The right approach, taking either the market or the company’s competencies as a starting point, must be determined for each case individually.
Despite this warning against one-size-fits-all approach, the strategy development process usually encompasses the following stages:
- Analyzing the current position: Where do we stand?
- Setting strategic goals: Where do we want to go?
- Defining the business/market: What is our business? In which market do we want to do business?
- Analyzing internal competencies: What are we capable of? What skills do we have? Innovativeness, financial resources, and personnel are examined here.
- Analyzing the market/customers: How large is our market? How quickly is it growing? Who are the customers? What do they expect from us? How much are they willing to pay?
- Analyzing the competition: Who are our current and potential competitors? What are our competitive advantages and disadvantages? This aspect includes the issue of costs.
- Establishing plan of action: Who will do what, and when?
- Anticipating outcome analysis/forecast: What outcomes do we expect?”
Eu prefiro começar pela definição dos clientes-alvo, prefiro começar pelo fim. Um negócio sustentável só o é se conseguir satisfazer um conjunto de clientes-alvo. Esses clientes-alvo vão ficar satisfeitos em consequência de experiências que vão sentir com os produtos e serviços oferecidos. O que é que um negócio tem de fazer para proporcionar e comunicar essas experiências? Esta é a ponte para a identificação dos processos críticos. Daí vem o passo seguinte: Quais são as competências necessárias para satisfazer os clientes-alvo, ou seja, para operar esses processos críticos?
E como vamos fazer a diferença? Até pode ser pela relação que vamos criar, nutrir e desenvolver…