Balanced Scorecard: "E se for a Alemanha a ter de sair da zona euro?" (parte II)

segunda-feira, fevereiro 01, 2010

"E se for a Alemanha a ter de sair da zona euro?" (parte II)

No início do mês de Outubro do ano passado, ao ler este artigo "Diverging deficits could fracture the eurozone" de Wolfgang Münchau no FT pensei:

Se os PIIGS não podem sair do euro... será que pode ser a Alemanha a sair do euro? ("E se for a Alemanha a ter de sair da zona euro?")

Seria uma espécie de super-euro da Liga dos Campeões para a Alemanha, a Holanda e ... pouco mais, e um euro da Liga Europa para todos aqueles que não podem, ou não quer assumir as consequências de ter uma moeda forte.

Pois bem, agora é Ambrose Evans-Pritchard no Telegraph, a aventar essa hipótese "Should Germany bail out Club Med or leave the euro altogether?"

"We can argue over whether Greece, Portugal, or Spain are at risk of being forced out of the euro. But there is another nagging question: whether events will cause Germany and its satellites to withdraw, bequeathing the legal carcass of EMU to the Club Med bloc.
This is the only break-up scenario that makes much sense. A German exit would allow Club Med to uphold contracts in euros and devalue with least havoc to internal debt markets. The German bloc would enjoy a windfall gain. The D-Mark II would be stronger. Borrowing costs would fall. The North-South gap in competitiveness could be bridged with less disruption for both sides."

A verificar-se... será o triunfo do facilitismo, será a abdicação de uma vida de trabalho e de exigência, em favor da balda habitual.

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"It is widely believed that restructuring has boosted productivity by displacing low-skilled workers and creating jobs for the high skilled."Mas, e como isto é profundo:"In essence, creative destruction means that low productivity plants are displaced by high productivity plants." Por favor voltar a trás e reler esta última afirmação.
.
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"Perder diversidade é como arrancar páginas de um livro. Quantas páginas poderemos arrancar até deixar de compreender o enredo?"
The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic. Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought."

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Entre d'altres coses, Mauldin diu que "els inversors estan fumant crack si creuen que els bancs espanyols són entre els més forts d'Europa, ja que estan amagant les seves pèrdues".

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"o vencedor da vida, o optimista que vive em incesto com o próprio ego, é o traço mais frágil do líder"

"We shall not grow wiser before we learn that much
that we have done was very foolish."
You may not be able to change the world but can at least get some entertainment & make a living out of the epistemic arrogance of the human race.

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O problema não é o consumo. O problema é o consumo assente em endividamento."

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When it becomes more difficult to suffer than change, you will change"

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The more you can see of the present, the more you can see of the future"

Yes, You can change the future, but only changing the present"

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"A estabilidade é uma ilusão"

"When we create the conditions of possibility, the universe becomes our co-conspirator"

Thinking about doing is not doing. Talking about doing is not doing. Doing is doing."

"'God has created me to do him some definite service. He has committed some work to me which he has not committed to another'.

...

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"os bancos não financiam a economia, a poupança sim"

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"Change is a threat when done to me, but an opportunity when done by me."

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"the world is an uncertain place no matter how many Greek letter equations you affix to a problem."

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“No, no, you're not thinking; you're just being logical.”

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“You’ve got to start with the customer experience and work back toward the technology – not the other way around”

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"The advantage of experiences over things for most of us is that we can make them seem unique, which = scarce, which = value"

"Pedras no caminho?

Guardo todas, um dia vou construir um castelo"

"Without risk, faith is an impossibility."

"Não posso com quem vive a achar que os outros lhe devem sempre alguma coisa."

"In a world of increasing automation, our ability to perform tasks is not nearly as important as our ability to dream. The questions we need to ask are not ones of action, but ones of meaning"

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""The first principle is that you must not fool yourself and you are the easiest person to fool." "

"Debt may have ended up as a problem, but it always starts out as a solution."

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segunda-feira, fevereiro 01, 2010

"E se for a Alemanha a ter de sair da zona euro?" (parte II)

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