No dia 2 de Janeiro deste ano escrevi o postal "
Somos todos alemães" por causa da entrada da Eslováquia no espaço euro.
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Na altura escrevi:
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"Desejando o melhor para os nossos amigos eslovacos, espero que os seus políticos e empresários já tenham descoberto o que me demorou cinco anos a perceber.
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Um país que adere ao euro torna-se ... numa nova Alemanha."
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Através do serviço público prestado por Edward Hugh "
Slovakia Takes The Biscuit - GDP Drops 11.2% In Three Months":
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"Slovakia may now face a difficult period (like Portugal -
see this post) of internal price adjustment having entered the euro at too high a rate. The openness of the economy will require more price and wage flexibility. Slovakia joined EMU with a relative strong exchange rate. Currencies of neighbouring countries have been depreciating significantly against the euro. So we are seeing strong deflationary pressures, and average industrial wages fell an annual 0.6 percent in March, following a 1.9 percent fall in February. In nominal terms, average monthly wages rose to 718 euros from 687 euros in February. However, for now these are nowhere near on the same scale as, for example, the impact of the drop in sterling on Ireland.
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On a side issue Slovakia issued a 2 billion euro, 2015-dated bond yesterday at 170 basis points over mid swaps. So this can give you some idea what new eurozone members can expect in the future, somewhere up there in the spreads with Greece and Ireland. Slovakia is rated A1 by Moody's Investors Service, A+ by Standard & Poor's Corp. and A+ by Fitch Ratings.
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So, while Hungary is still the worst performer among CEE EU member economies the two recent members of the Eurozone -
Slovenia and Slovakia - are doing worse than anyone would have imagined, and this should lead to some serious questions being asked in Brussels and Frankfurt. .
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Why is it that, for example, participants in a crisis racked economy like Latvia (whose economy is contracting at an 18% annual rate, and whose bankers and politicians are moving heaven and earth to try to scrape through the qualifying hurdle for eurozone membership) are still feeling better than many economic agents in the Eastern two countries who have actually managed to access the zone according to the latest reading of the EU Economic Sentiment Index. Eurozone membership is not a one way street, far from it. So what are the benefits, and what are the dangers, and how do we optimise the membership process?"
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Não é alemão quem quer... mas quem pode!
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E para poder, há que abandonar o que nos trouxe até aqui (já dizia Hayek: " Never will a man penetrate deeper into error than when he is continuing on a road that has led him to great success.").
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Abandonar o conhecido e partir para uma nova filosofia de vida à alemã não está nos planos de quase ninguém... mais uma daquelas verdades que os políticos da situação e da oposição não têm coragem de nos dizer... isto partindo do princípio que eles próprios já descobriram. Por que não é difícil imaginar que continuam à nora!
