Véspera de Natal

Para recordar.

Curiosidade do dia

"The people are hungry: It is because those in authority eat up too much in taxes."

Lao Tzu

Há quantos anos não mexe nos seus Custos Gerais de Fabrico?

Imagem retirada do Caderno de Economia do semanário Expresso publicado hoje.

Como vai o cálculo dos custos de fabrico na sua empresa? Tem a certeza que os Overhead Costs estão actualizados? Receio que demasiadas empresas se foquem nos custos das matérias-primas e componentes e nos custos de mão-de-obra, esquecendo-se de actualizar os Custos Gerais de Fabrico. 

Há quantos anos não mexe nos seus Custos Gerais de Fabrico?

Acerca do mercado de trabalho

O JdN de hoje publica o artigo "Trabalhadores em lay-off disparam para mais do dobro em novembro" que ilustra com uma imagem de chão de fábrica têxtil. Infelizmente, não encontro nenhum artigo que refira a relação do têxtil com a evolução do lay-off ou mesmo com a redução do número de empregados. 

As estatísticas do IEFP dão pistas mais relevantes sobre o que está a acontecer no mercado de trabalho em Portugal (variações mensais):

Dados de Novembro:

Criadores de infernos

Mais um exemplo do medo que devemos ter dos "engenheiros sociais", gente que desenha a próxima jogada sem pensar nas consequências, gente sempre pronta a dizer-nos o que devemos fazer ou não.

Reparar em "Suiza planea prohibir el coche eléctrico para ahorrar energía".

Recordar o clássico de 2007 "“Nós não estudámos até ao fim todas as consequências das medidas que sugerimos”", ou o de 2010 "Jogadores de bilhar amador há-os em todo o lado (parte II)", ou de 2020 "Second-order thinking"

34%

É deixar o significado e as implicações deste número, 34%, afundarem lentamente...

34% dos emigrantes permanentes (pessoas que saíram do país para viver no estrangeiro por mais de um ano) tinham o Ensino Superior completo.

— PORDATA (@PORDATA) December 18, 2022

"Em 2021, 20% da população residente com 15 e mais anos tinha um curso superior, percentagem que subia para 34 % nos emigrantes." 

Trecho retirado de "Portugal vive crise demográfica, só atenuada pelos imigrantes" 

Recessão, descentralizaçao e estratégia

"Winter is coming: Inverted yield curves, rising interest rates, and a rash of layoff announcements have convinced many economists that the global economy is headed for a downturn. Recessions are bad for business, but downturns are not destiny.

The worst of times for the economy as a whole can be the best of times for individual companies to improve their fortunes. One study found that lagging companies are twice as likely to overtake industry leaders during a recession, relative to nonrecessionary periods. Another study, of nearly 4,000 global companies before, during, and after the Great Recession, found that the top decile of companies grew earnings by 17% per year during the downturn, while the laggards saw profits stagnate or decline. The difference between the companies in the two groups translated into $6 billion in enterprise value on average.

...

How can the same recession cause some corporate empires to rise and others to fall? The short answer is that uncertainty surges dramatically during recessions - increasing roughly threefold at the company level compared with the relative calm before or after a downturn.

...

The chaos of a recession, however, is both a pit and a ladder. In the face of uncertainty, some companies retrench. They abandon attractive customers and promising markets, offload valuable assets at fire sales, cut prices, and seek new partners to bolster cash flow. Others start climbing. They seize opportunities and improve their fortunes.

...

The link between decentralized decision-making and agility during a downturn was confirmed in a global sample of more than 3,000 midsized manufacturing companies during the Great Recession. It found that companies that centralized important decisions (capital expenditure, new products, sales and marketing, and hiring) suffered revenue declines three times larger than the losses experienced by decentralized companies.

Decentralization works only if distributed leaders understand the broader strategic context that is, which priorities matter most to the company, why they are important, and how the company is performing. When middle managers and front-line supervisors understand the broader strategic context, they can adapt to local circumstances without losing sight of the company's overall strategic priorities.

Clearly comunicating strategy is particularly important in turbulent times. 

...

Heading into a recession, top management teams should commit to a handful of strategic priorities that provide clear guidance for navigating through the coming storm, and then ensure that those priorities are understood and used to guide choices throughout the organization. In an earlier study, we analyzed 69 factors to see which ones predicted whether managers and employees at all levels understood strategy. Two factors stood head and shoulders above the rest: that top leaders clearly and consistently communicated strategy, and that distributed leaders at every level explicitly linked their team's objectives to the overall strategy."

Trechos retirados de "Preparing Your Company for the Next Recession" 

"What do I have to offer "

"The German philosopher Hannah Arendt defined thinking as having a conversation with yourself. But for organizations to think, that conversation has to be with colleagues: testing, stretching, challenging observations, ideas, data, and interpretations. The richness of the ensuing dialogue requires information and great questions.

Information wants to be different. If everyone brings the same knowledge, then why have five people in the room when you could just have one? Unanimity is always a sign that participation isn’t wholehearted. Instead of seeking to confirm each other’s biases and beliefs, why not bring data, stories, experience that enrich and expand? Great thinking partners aren’t echo chambers—they bring well-stocked minds, new perspectives, and challenges. Ask yourself: What do I have to offer that no one else can bring? That’s what you are there for."

Trecho retirado de "Beyond Measure: The Big Impact of Small Changes" de Margaret Heffernan.

"The solution is not to reduce your prices; it’s to increase the value that you provide"

"A word of caution: not everybody is going to be willing to pay what you are worth. That doesn't mean you should lower your prices; that means you are niching correctly! The goal is to find the smaller segment of the market that will pay the higher prices because they also understand the value of the service or product you provide.

...

“Of course, you’ll eventually hit a point where people—even your biggest supporters—won’t continue paying more. At that point, you’ll fail to convert because (at least for most of us) whatever we do is not something people will pay literally any amount of money for. There’s always a point of diminishing returns.

It’s at this point that many entrepreneurs make a critical mistake. The solution is not to reduce your prices; it’s to increase the value that you provide.[Moi ici: Nunca esquecer este "truque", daí o meu milenar conselho: Subir na escala de valor (parte II), trabalhar os underserved]

... 

This is all just about perceived value and math, and that math is tied to time. Time is fleeting and, without trying to get too dark, we’re all going to die. So the most precious resource we have is time, and that’s what we’re all selling, ultimately.”

Recordando Schumpeter, o futuro tem um custo. Se não o incorporamos agora, nunca o teremos. 

Trechos retirados de "Niching Up: The Narrower the Market, the Bigger the Prize" de Chris Dreyer.

Tecnologia e problemas organizacionais

O parceiro das conversas oxigenadoras fala sobre isto há muitos anos, os que ingenuamente pensam que a tecnologia resolves os problemas de quem não sabe lidar com humanos.

"To wit: one problem facing organizations is the lack of organizational alignment around why these new technological innovations are so mission-critical. Unclear purpose and the lack of comfort and expertise with the what, where, when, and why of work can cause slowdowns, misunderstandings, redundant work, and one-off work-arounds. These and other frictions can add distraction, inefficiency, and unpleasantness to the work experience—and may contribute to burnout as well.

...

As we debate grand philosophical questions around the future of work, perhaps it’s also time to devote rigor to the fundamentals of organizational life, whether in the office, fully remote, or something in between. Agreeing on well-defined and widely practiced norms that mitigate unnecessary complication and conflict is essential for a desirable and productive workplace. Before expecting whizbang technology to create workplace nirvana, organizations must explore the cultural norms and core operating principles and practices that foster or confound productivity."

Trechos retirados de "Technology alone won't solve your organizational challenges". 

Curiosidade do dia

Sociedades adultas agem como adultos. Tomam decisões e equacionam as contrapartidas para não gerar um monstro que suga energia vital para quem vem a seguir: "Denmark's new government drops public holiday to boost defence budget"

Claro, por cá já estamos habituados, o "vamoláver" gera um protectorado e dívida:

sempre esta mama, sempre esta mão estendida, sempre a fazer de um país com quase 900 anos de história um protectorado pouco recomendável https://t.co/xyOhgfA7pk

— Carlos P da Cruz 🇺🇦🚜🇳🇱🇬🇪 (@ccz1) December 13, 2022

Não devia ser cosmética!!!

"Element 4 of Clarity: Emphasize this change is fundamental, not cosmetic

Having specified the outcomes this change will produce, and having set some big, long-dated targets, leaders now need to talk about how fundamental the change is. This means they need to make clear that, while there may be some 'quick wins to help build motivation and reassure people that progress is happening, most of the early work will be decidedly unglamorous and will relate to the data, measurement and systems of the business. Leaders also need to take every opportunity to show they believe this work is important and that they care about it and the people doing it."

Quando escrevi sobre a rotunda, roubando a palavra a Joaquim Aguiar, era sobre esta exigência de que não se trata de cosmética. 

Na mesma linha, recomendo vivamente a audição do último Think Tank, dos melhores de sempre. BTW, escrevi na segunda-feira à noite "faz-se algum alarido, mas nada muda. apenas se acentua o ciclo vicioso." Depois, a linguagem usada por Jorge Marrão logo no arranque da sua intervenção:

"e no fundo é o alarido que a comunicação social faz sobre vários temas mas tudo parece que continua a paralisar"

Começa com algo sempre importante, factos:

• em 1960 havia 27 idosos por cada 100 jovens
• em 1970 havia 34 idosos por cada 100 jovens
• em 1980 havia 44 idosos por cada 100 jovens
• em 1990 havia 68 idosos por cada 100 jovens
• em 2001 havia 102 idosos por cada 100 jovens
• em 2021 havia 182 idosos por cada 100 jovens

 Depois, volta à carga com números sobre quantos activos por beneficiário de pensões

• em 1960 havia 21,1 activos por cada beneficiário de pensões
• em 1980 havia 2,4 activos por cada beneficiário de pensões
• em 2021 havia 1,6 activos por cada beneficiário de pensões

E quem discute estes números com seriedade para agir? Não dá jeito - A conspiração grisalha. Depois, admiram-se com os números da emigração...

Os alentejanos que saíram da agricultura e foram para as fábricas de Lisboa, foram uma versão portuguesa dos flying geese. Agora vão de Lisboa et al para o resto da Europa e Portugal transforma-se todo ele numa espécie de interior desertificado. 

Desejo tudo de bom para os jovens que vão embora, cada um que sai é uma pessoa que faz um gesto feio com os dedos da mão aos vampiros cá da terra.

Vão ser umas comemorações dos 50 anos do 25 de Abril verdadeiramente icónicas ... espero que sirvam para um corte epistemológico.

Trecho retirado de "Step Up, Step Back: How to Really Deliver Strategic Change in Your Organization"  

Cuidado com os americanos

"Esta semana, um empresário alemão andou no Vale do Ave a fazer contactos para deixar encomendas têxteis que costumava colocar na China e Turquia. "Está disposto a pagar 20% mais para reduzir a exposição numa zona que considera de risco" conta um industrial do sector, animado com a perspetiva do negócio

...

Rafael Campos Pereira, vice-presidente da AIMMAP, a associação do sector metalúrgico, admite que 2022 vai fechar com exportações superiores a €20 mil milhões, 10% acima do recorde de 2021 e pelo menos quarto dos melhores registos mensais de sempre. Para isso, diz, pesam subidas nos principais mercados do sector Espanha, França e Alemanha além dos Estados Unidos, que deu um salto homólogo de 70% em oito meses

...

Na fileira têxtil, as previsões apontam mais uma vez para um recorde nas exportações, depois de o terceiro trimestre fechar 19,2% acima de 2019 (€4,7 mil milhões). Em quantidade, o ganho é de apenas 6%, o que leva Mário Jorge Machado, presidente da associação setorial ATP, a sublinhar que "há valorização de produto, mas também há mão da inflação". Aliás, recorda, o ano obrigou muitas empresas a recorrerem a lay-off pela subida dos custos e por cortes nas encomendas de marcas preocupadas com a redução do consumo.

...

muitas marcas americanas querem alternativas à Ásia,

...

No calçado ainda ninguém assume que o recorde de €1,96 mil milhões de 2017 será batido na frente externa, [Moi ici: Mentira o presidente da APICCAPS assumiu-o no último número do Dinheiro Vivo] mas "este é seguramente um dos três melhores anos de sempre", admite Paulo Gonçalves, porta-voz da associação setorial APICCAPS,

...

No caso da indústria do mobiliário, 2022 puxou os EUA do 5° para o 3º lugar no ranking dos maiores mercados, com um crescimento de 30% nas vendas, e Angola, "a beneficiar da alta do petróleo" para crescer 50%, regressou ao top 10."

Qual o perigo do mercado norte-americano? A sua baixa sofisticação, afinal estamos a falar de clientes que estão a sair da Ásia. Recordo o que escrevi em 2018 aqui no blogue, Tanta coisa que me passa pela cabeça...:

"Quem segue este blogue sabe que há muitos anos escrevemos e defendemos aqui que o mercado americano não pode competir com o europeu em preço unitário."

Por exemplo, na última Monografia Estatística publicada pela APICCAPS podemos encontrar:

• Preço médio de um par de sapatos importado pelos Estados Unidos - 11,37 USD
• Preço médio de um par de sapatos importado por Portugal - 13,28 USD
• Preço médio de um par de sapatos importado pela Alemanha - 17,94 USD
• Preço médio de um par de sapatos importado por França - 18,26 USD

Trechos retirados de "O sonho americano das exportações portuguesas" publicado no caderno de Economia do semanário Expresso do passado Sábado.

Mais uma rotunda

"Os portugueses com habilitações superiores que emigram chegam a ganhar três vezes mais nos países que os acolhem do que em Portugal. Conseguem empregos estáveis e progressão profissional, e os que partiram a pensar no regresso, dizem, agora, que a saída é permanente. São os novos emigrantes e estas conclusões estão no estudo Êxodo de competências e mobilidade académica de Portugal para a Europa.

"Faz-se um investimento naformação dos jovens, que depois não têm o devido reconhecimento na sociedade portuguesa e acabam por emigrar. Não há o devido retorno para o desenvolvimento do país", lamenta João Teixeira Lopes, um dos autores do estudo. Esclarece:"Do ponto de vista do individuo é perfeitamente racional, mas não do país. Estamos a perder a geração mais qualificada, é um absurdo.""

Faz-me lembrar o discurso de alguns empresários que dizem que não dão formação aos seus trabalhadores porque se o fizerem a concorrência vem buscá-los. 

Este é mais um exemplo daquilo a que Joaquim Aguiar chama de rotunda. Volta e meia levanta-se o tema, faz-se algum alarido, mas nada muda. apenas se acentua o ciclo vicioso.

Trecho retirado de "Investe-se na formação e não há retorno. Estamos perder a geração mais qualificada" publicado no DN de ontem.

A conspiração grisalha

A conspiração grisalha ou a geração TUTUTU 

"We had never thought of the Baby Boom as a thing until we saw Herblock’s teeming schoolhouses and overflowing classrooms, 

...

We felt sorry for those little kids, but we missed some important things. First, that they would turn into the largest demographic in America, warping and twisting the economy to meet their needs – first creating a kiddie culture, then a teen culture, then a singles culture, all the way up to the Viagra-popping, inheritance-spending, won’t-retire-yet culture of today. Second, that they’d wield the same power at the voting booth that they’d wielded at the cash register. And third, that all that attention, combined with the fierce sense of competition that was the natural outcome of their sheer numbers – would turn them into a generation of sociopaths who would, by and large, do what sociopaths do; act purely in their own self-interest to the detriment of all others.

...

 the Baby Boomer generation has exhibited behaviour that the DSM (The Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, the handbook used by health care professionals around the world as the authoritative guide to mental disorders) would describe as sociopathic (or as he says early in the book “There is something wrong with the Boomer and there has been for a long time.”). A look at the child-rearing theories popular at their birth indicates that they were actually raised to be this way, then they were not corrected from this path in their youth, and then as adults, they used the economy and the government (when they gained control of them) to do what sociopaths always do – change the rules to their own advantage, and to the detriment of all others. And by “others” Mr. Gibney means the generations that preceded them, and importantly, all those that followed them.

...

But what they built, and rebuilt, and rebuilt, was only sustainable for themselves. It used the largesse of their parents to pay for it, and when that ran out, it mortgaged the futures of their children – confident in the knowledge that they’d be long dead by the time the bills for any of it came due. So by definition, as Gibney points out again and again, what they made could not function for future generations. It wasn’t intended to."

Trechos retirados de "A Generation of Sociopaths" 

"the end of cheap money"

De volta ao meu esquema de 2008:

Aumentar a rentabilidade para fazer face a taxas de juro mais elevadas implica trabalhar com projectos mais arriscados, implica aumentar o grau de pureza, o grau de foco da estratégia.

"Investing in an era of higher interest rates and scarcer capital

Welcome to the end of cheap money. ... Investors find themselves in a new world and they need a new set of rules.

...

The shock was all the worse because investors had become used to low inflation. After the global financial crisis of 2007-09, central banks cut interest rates in an attempt to revive the economy. As rates fell and stayed down, asset prices surged and a "bull market in everything" took hold.

...

This year's dramatic reversal was triggered by rising interest rates. ... Look deeper, though, and the underlying cause is resurgent inflation.

...

This era of dearer money demands a shift in how investors approach the markets. As reality sinks in, they are scrambling to adjust to the new rules. They should focus on three.

One is that expected returns will be higher. As interest rates fell in the bull years of the 2010s, future income was transformed into capital gains. The downside of higher prices was lower expected returns. By symmetry, this year's capital losses have a silver lining: future real returns have gone up.

...

The second rule is that investors' horizons have shortened. Higher interest rates are making them impatient, as the present value of future income streams falls. 

...

Though inflation in America peaked in June, it still stands at 7.7%. Elsewhere things are worse: in Britain prices are 11.1% higher than they were a year ago, and in the euro area the rise is 10%. The IMF forecasts a global inflation rate of 9.1% over the course of 2022.

As a result, markets expect the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates to 5% in 2023, and the Bank of England to lift them to more than 4.5%. What is more, both central banks have started to unwind the huge holdings of government bonds they built up in the wake of the financial crisis (quantitative tightening, in the jargon). The intention of the purchases was to hold down long-term interest rates; the sales should have the opposite effect.

...

When the dust finally settles, it will reveal a landscape that is likely to have changed for good. Though markets expect interest rates to fall after a peak next year, the odds that they will collapse back to next-to-nothing seem slim. That is because inflation is likely to be hard to tame. Nearly two years of it have raised expectations of price rises, which can be self-fulfilling. Tight labour markets in many countries will drive wages up, providing a further push. Unrelenting demands on government spending-from ageing populations to an ever-growing expectation that states will shield people and companies from economic storms-may also help elevate interest rates and propel inflation. Taken together, these forces will reshape investors' portfolios and alter the returns they can expect."

Trechos retirados do último número da revista The Economist acerca de "SEARCHING FOR RETURNS - The new rules of investment"

Curiosidade do dia

Quando ouvi na rádio, "Ministério da Saúde muda administração do Hospital de Santa Maria", juro que a primeira imagem que me veio à mente foi esta:

Fui agora buscá-la à internet, faz parte de "THE ROAD TO SERFDOM IN CARTOONS".

Um governo cria um labirinto, depois culpa os desgraçados que não souberam gerir o caos gerado pelo labirinto. 

Os desgraçados só são culpados de acreditarem que conseguiriam fazer a diferença apesar do labirinto.

Que resultados e que comportamentos? (parte II)

 Outro bom conselho retirado na continuação de Que resultados e que comportamentos?

"Changes to underlying structures and systems such as these [Moi ici: Por exemplo um novo Sistema IT]  take time to show a return and so this work needs to be started early. Indeed, one of the important lessons from the Ideal Case is that, if these more fundamental changes are not made early on in the change, the danger is that they will never happen.

There are two reasons for that. First, because it's only in the early stages of the change that enough political will exists in the business to embark on changes this big and expensive. If you leave this more difficult work until later in the change, this political will may have waned - as might the enthusiasm (and budget) for the hard grind of this unglamorous kind of work

The second reason has to do with how long the results from this kind of fundamental change take to emerge. Unless you start the unglamorous work on data and systems early, the results may not have come through by the time leaders are starting to get impatient. 

…

Because this was a big change, he was clear that we'd need to be much more experimental than maybe we'd been in the past, where we'd expected everything to work first time. We were going to have to try, learn and try again. He was really big on that. And we were going to have to share good ideas openly across teams."

Que resultados e que comportamentos?

O livro "Step Up, Step Back: How to Really Deliver Strategic Change in Your Organization" está a ser uma agradável surpresa. Conta novidades? Não, mas apresenta-as de uma forma clara e escorreita.

Por exemplo, algo na linha do que aprendemos sobre a blitzkrieg e a sua transposição para o mundo dos negócios em "Specifying too much detail actually shakes confidence and creates uncertainty " e em Liberdade no terreno em:

"Element 3 of Clarity: Specify the outcomes and behaviors you want 

Having explained why the change is needed and why now; and how it fits with what's gone before, it would be tempting now to get down to some activities. But that's the old approach. What leaders need to do now is dial down that urge for action and instead spend more time thinking and talking about what this new strategy will produce.

The first critical part of doing this well is to talk about outcomes (rather than activities) and to specify targets for the outcomes you want the new strategy to deliver. This is essential if managers are to be able to make good decisions about which activities to work on. Without, an outcome to target, they're deciding blind.

…

[Moi ici: Li o texto que se segue na viagem de comboio na passada quarta feira à noite. Entretanto, nessa manhã, durante a caminhada matinal, tinha guardado a figura acima ao tirá-la do Twitter] Now a step change by definition is not something that can be delivered in the short term. To help people understand this, leaders should also structure the new target outcomes over different time frames. 

Specifically, there should be a long-dated, multi-year target for the big performance improvement that's being asked for, and then shorter-term milestones to help track progress. Note that the target is not the milestones themselves - these are just signposts along the way. The target is the big, hairy, multi-year objective. And the combination of these different metrics (both targets and milestones) across different time frames means long-term change is set up to succeed. 

Finally, to help people translate these outcomes into action, leaders should also communicate the new behaviors they are expecting to see. This means people can start making immediate changes (in the behavior) even before they're able to change what they 're working at (their activities).

…

is explaining the change in terms of the outcomes he's expecting to see. By being clear and prescriptive about the outcome, he then didn't have to be prescriptive about which activities would be worked on. He could, instead, leave the choice of which projects to work on to managers further down the organization. After all, managers were closer to the business and better understood the processes and activities that would deliver this outcome. And because managers knew what they had to deliver (because they had a clear outcome to target), they could decide, within this constraint, which activities would best achieve this."

Tudo vai depender do tal jogo de forças (parte VI)

Continuação desta serie - Tudo vai depender do tal jogo de forças (parte V)

• Manufacturing orders from China down 40% in unrelenting demand collapse

"U.S. manufacturing orders in China are down 40 percent, 

...

Unlike the decrease in orders out of China, trade data analyzed by Project44 indicates that the Europe-to-U.S. route is "one of the possibly most surprising and certainly most significant developments since early 2020," Brazil said.

"This sharp rise cannot be explained by the pandemic alone. But a strategic shift from over-dependency on trade with China and geopolitical tensions over Russia are the main drivers of the EU-U.S. trade boom," he said.

...

This year, the U.S. has imported more goods from Europe than China – a big shift from the 2010s, according to Project 44.

"For their part, Europe's manufacturers battling sky-high energy prices and inflation are increasingly exporting to and investing in the U.S.," Brazil said.

Germany's exports to the U.S. were almost 50% higher in September year over year. Germany's mechanical engineering sector has boosted its exports to the U.S. by almost 20% in a year over year comparison of the first nine months of 2022, according to Project 44."

Isto representa um alento para as PMEs tugas, mas não haja ilusões isto são exportações a base de preço espremido.

• Apple Accelerating Supply Chain Retreat From China After iPhone Factory Chaos

"WSJ said Apple is "telling suppliers to plan more actively for assembling Apple products elsewhere in Asia, particularly India and Vietnam, they say, and looking to reduce dependence on Taiwanese assemblers led by Foxconn.""

Recordar o efeito do banhista gordo - As banheiras pequenas enchem depressa