De volta ao meu esquema de 2008:
"Investing in an era of higher interest rates and scarcer capital
Welcome to the end of cheap money. ... Investors find themselves in a new world and they need a new set of rules.
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The shock was all the worse because investors had become used to low inflation. After the global financial crisis of 2007-09, central banks cut interest rates in an attempt to revive the economy. As rates fell and stayed down, asset prices surged and a "bull market in everything" took hold.
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This year's dramatic reversal was triggered by rising interest rates. ... Look deeper, though, and the underlying cause is resurgent inflation.
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This era of dearer money demands a shift in how investors approach the markets. As reality sinks in, they are scrambling to adjust to the new rules. They should focus on three.
One is that expected returns will be higher. As interest rates fell in the bull years of the 2010s, future income was transformed into capital gains. The downside of higher prices was lower expected returns. By symmetry, this year's capital losses have a silver lining: future real returns have gone up.
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The second rule is that investors' horizons have shortened. Higher interest rates are making them impatient, as the present value of future income streams falls.
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Though inflation in America peaked in June, it still stands at 7.7%. Elsewhere things are worse: in Britain prices are 11.1% higher than they were a year ago, and in the euro area the rise is 10%. The IMF forecasts a global inflation rate of 9.1% over the course of 2022.
As a result, markets expect the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates to 5% in 2023, and the Bank of England to lift them to more than 4.5%. What is more, both central banks have started to unwind the huge holdings of government bonds they built up in the wake of the financial crisis (quantitative tightening, in the jargon). The intention of the purchases was to hold down long-term interest rates; the sales should have the opposite effect.
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When the dust finally settles, it will reveal a landscape that is likely to have changed for good. Though markets expect interest rates to fall after a peak next year, the odds that they will collapse back to next-to-nothing seem slim. That is because inflation is likely to be hard to tame. Nearly two years of it have raised expectations of price rises, which can be self-fulfilling. Tight labour markets in many countries will drive wages up, providing a further push. Unrelenting demands on government spending-from ageing populations to an ever-growing expectation that states will shield people and companies from economic storms-may also help elevate interest rates and propel inflation. Taken together, these forces will reshape investors' portfolios and alter the returns they can expect."
Trechos retirados do último número da revista The Economist acerca de "SEARCHING FOR RETURNS - The new rules of investment"
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