Curiosidade do dia

Excelente reflexão sobre o futuro do jornalismo, ou da produção de conteúdos, em "Marc Andreessen's 8 business models for journalism".

Relacionar estratégia e comportamentos

"To be successful, it’s necessary to ensure your employees fully understand your strategy and what you hope to achieve in the year ahead. Then you must translate a strategy into actionable behaviors to ensure employees are able to carry it forward. After all, business is a performance art: Saying is not the same as doing. But if you can’t say it, clearly and concisely, your people will only have more trouble implementing it, efficiently and effectively."

E na sua empresa, as pessoas sabem qual é a estratégia?
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Existe uma estratégia clara?
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As pessoas percebem que actividades e comportamentos estão em sintonia com a estratégia?

Trecho retirado de "Start Articulating Your Strategy"

O parágrafo final é mortal para as empresas que ...

Há uma citação que uso já há algum tempo:

"Value it's a feeling, not a calculation"

"Emotions make the corporate world uncomfortable. The perception is that since emotions cannot be managed very well and are difficult to fit into pie charts or reports, they must be ignored. The efficiency-oriented operations we pride ourselves on are full of logic and predictability, so we tend to treat the customer accordingly. Financial managers have no clue as to how to factor emotions into their financial models. Thus emotions are treated as the type of irrational behavior from which we must shy away.
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In reality, that thought process is fundamentally flawed. Businesses built on logic alone will be very expensive to operate. We actually want emotions in our relationships with customers. A purely logical customer will shop for the lowest price every time and will demonstrate no loyalty at all. The cost of doing business with customers will be high, because each time we will have to “acquire” them again through expensive incentives.
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The problem with emotions, however, is that many of them occur in a nurturing environment. They demand mutual commitment in order to deliver commitment. In the long, uncomfortable affair companies have with emotions, they have tended to exploit the customer’s emotions but not to communicate their own."

O parágrafo final é mortal para as empresas que não fazem parte de uma tribo, para as empresas que julgam que o big data resolve tudo, para as empresas que não apostam na co-criação, para as empresas que não escolhem os seus clientes-alvo, para as empresas que não interagem.

Trechos retirados de "Passionate and profitable : why customer strategies fail and ten steps to do them right" de Lior Arussy.

E ninguém que os envergonhe...

Faz sentido que o salário mínimo pago em Penamacor seja o mesmo que em Lisboa?
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Faz sentido que os impostos pagos em Penamacor sejam os mesmos que em Lisboa?
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O que acontece ao emprego e à densidade populacional em Penamacor?
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Agora, imaginem replicar isto a outro nível:

"julgo que é cada vez mais premente este sonho mirífico de uma política fiscal harmonizada. Mas sinto e penso que vai ser cada vez mais importante, nos tempos que aí vêm, para a sobrevivência do projeto da zona euro”.
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Quem o diz é Santana Lopes, em entrevista ao programa Fora da Caixa, da Rádio Renascença"

Mais uma vez repito-me, pena que os jornalistas sejam uns ignorantes e uns cobardes, incapazes de fazer perguntas que envergonhem quem usa o espaço mediático para dizer barbaridades sem contraditório.
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Eu, anónimo engenheiro da província, sem conhecimentos de fiscalidade, faria como o rafeiro, agarraria a perna e não a largaria:

• como é que funcionaria essa harmonização fiscal?
• quais seriam as implicações para o emprego nos países periféricos?
• quais seriam as implicações para o investimento nos países periféricos?
• acha mesmo que impostos iguais aqui e na Alemanha iam beneficiar Portugal?

Santana Lopes acredita na concorrência perfeita, acredita que o mercado deve ser uma arena em que todos estão em igualdade de circunstâncias.
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Sorry! Peço desculpa por lhe estragar o conto de crianças. Num mercado perfeito quem ganha são os maiores, sempre!
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Nem nos Estados Unidos existe harmonização fiscal!!!
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Os políticos, vide o exemplo desta semana de Costa e da nomeação do governador do Banco de Portugal, lançam postas de pescada sem qualquer estudo ou reflexão digna do nome. E ninguém que os envergonhe...

Uma outra abordagem (parte I)

Ontem de manhã cedo, durante uma caminhada, comecei a leitura de "A Service Lens on Value Creation: Marketing's Role in Achieving Strategic Advantage" de Lance A. Bettencourt, Robert F. Lusch e Stephen L. Vargo, publicado no número de Outono de 2014 da California Management Review.
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Depois, a meio da manhã tive uma reunião numa empresa e, para meu espanto, um dos temas coincidiu com uma das mensagens principais do artigo.
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A empresa produz hardware industrial. É uma especialista reconhecida a nível mundial e, apesar de todos os quadros experientes que tem ao seu serviço, todos diplomados por universidades, continua aprisionada a esta visão do negócio:

"The problem with customer centricity at most companies is that it is grounded in an old enterprise ormanufacturing pattern of thought—what has been referred to as a goods-dominant logic. This outdated logic regards what the firm produces as the proper focal point for creating value."

Interessante como a tradição pode levar uma empresa inovadora a rejeitar convites de clientes concretos, para dar o salto para o futuro:

"In contrast, a service lens regards the proper focus for value creation as helping customers to get one or more jobs done (i.e., accomplish a goal or resolve a problem). This reorientation enables firms to pose truly customer-centric questions grounded in value creation."

 Interessante como a pessoa que mais apreciou o desafio dos clientes foi alguém que está menos integrado no sistema de concepção, desenvlvimento e produção do hardware:

"Business leaders, product engineers, and marketing professionals who
focus on how things are currently being done place constraints on their thinking. They define markets in terms of the output they provide; thus, they are unable to see the business growth possibilities that come with a service lens. This is why so many disruptive innovations - such as zero-turn radius lawn tractors, car sharing services, and retail health clinics - are created by firms that are outside traditionally defined industry boundaries or by the customers themselves."

O meu desafio?
Há uns anos não seria um desafio pois só trabalhava para empresas que sabiam que tinham um problema, ou oportunidade, e me contactavam, para os ajudar. Hoje, já procuro convencer empresas que têm um problema, ou oportunidade, e ainda não se aperceberam, a dar um passo no desconhecido.
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Continua.

Curiosidade do dia

"Machine efficiency was becoming so great that President Roosevelt, in 1935, told the nation that the economy might never be able to reabsorb all the workers who were being displaced. The more sanguine New York Times editorial board then accused the president of falling prey to the “calamity prophets.”
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In retrospect, it certainly looked as if he had. Unemployment, which was at nearly 24 percent in 1932, dropped to less than 5 percent a decade later. This was a pattern that would reassert itself throughout the twentieth century: the economy would tank, automation would be identified as one of the main culprits, commentators would suggest that jobs were not coming back, and then the economy would rebound and with it employment, and all that nervous chatter about machines taking over would fade away.
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When the economy faltered in 1958, and then again in 1961, for instance, what was being called the “automation problem” was taken up by Congress, which passed the Manpower Development and Training Act. In his State of the Union Address of 1962, President Kennedy explained that this law was meant “to stop the waste of able- bodied men and women who want to work, but whose only skill has been replaced by a machine, moved with a mill, or shut down with a mine.” Two years later, President Johnson convened a National Commission on Technology, Automation, and Economic Progress to assess the economic effects of automation and technological change. But then a funny thing happened. By the time the commission issued its report in 1966, the economy was approaching full employment. Concern about machines supplanting workers abated. The commission was disbanded."

Trechos retirados de "How Robots & Algorithms Are Taking Over"

"They shape the future"

Ainda na quarta-feira à noite, num jantar de francesinhas, o Aranha recordava esta frase de Seinfeld:

"Not That There Is Anything Wrong With That".

Por isso, sorri esta manhã, ao ler "What George Costanza Can Teach the C-Suite":

"Most companies get trapped on the growth treadmill, chasing multiple opportunities wherever the market is heading. The most successful companies, however, commit to doing only what they do best, and they grow by applying this in a very clear-minded and disciplined way in the market.
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Most companies pursue functional excellence and benchmark everything. Unfortunately, this approach leads them to the same crowded place in the market as everyone else.
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Winning companies don’t simply react. They shape the future: reimagine their capabilities, create demand and realign their industry on their own terms.
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Advantage is transient. Even the most formidable position is vulnerable to the melee of pressures in today’s market."

"you cannot save your way to prosperity"

"when the finance or accounting department drive savings, often times they do so without seeing the big picture of how cost cutting might impact employee and customer satisfaction as well as loyalty.
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 you cannot save your way to prosperity . When you cut costs without considering the impact on employees, customers, and overall loyalty, you make a conscious decision to follow a short-term path with poor long-term results.
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When revenue falls, it is natural to think about cutting costs. If you do cut costs, be careful about your message to employees and customers. Customers and employees don’t want to board a sinking ship. Focus your efforts on where you can add the greatest value for your existing and future customers."

Trechos retirados de "The Good, The Bad, And The Ugly Of Cost Cutting
Comment Now".

Um bom sinal

"As contas externas de Portugal chegaram ao final de janeiro com um saldo positivo de 277,8 milhões de euros, depois de terem registado um défice de 410,1 milhões de euros no mesmo mês do ano passado."

Trecho retirado de "Contas externas de Portugal com excedente de 278 ME em janeiro"

Mongo e os marxistas

Em Portugal a esquerda marxista mais participativa nas redes sociais ainda está agarrada ao modelo do século XX, aos exércitos de operários, (normalmente traduzida num desprezo pelos empreendedores, startups e micro-empresas) e à versão moderna da maquinaria, a automatização.
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Interessante este texto marxista sobre Mongo, "Peer-to-peer production and the coming of the commons":

"We are witnessing the emergence of a new ‘proto’ mode of production based on distributed, collaborative forms of organisation.
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One way to describe the changes now taking place is as a shift away from a context in which the technological and economic advantage lies with economies of scale and mass production that depend on cheap global transportation and, thus, the continuous availability of fossil fuels. The move is to ‘economies of scope’, where bringing down the cost of common infrastructure for networked enterprises brings competitive advantages.[Moi ici: Claro que ainda se focam muito nos custos, ainda não chegaram à paixão e ás tribos]
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This new emerging modality tends to out-cooperate and out-compete classic modes of capitalist production. This is because of its higher innovation potential (there is no privatisation of innovation); the ability for distributed parallel development on a global scale without the use of costly bureaucracies of control (as with Wikipedia, every module can be worked on separately, by any contributor with the necessary skills); and the much cheaper production costs due to price structures free of the rent of ‘intellectual property’ (IP). Where these new forms occur – in knowledge production, free software production and now emerging in physical production – they tend to displace proprietary and IP-based modes.
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We regard this as the peer production equivalent of the invention of the assembly line by Henry Ford. It inserts the rapid production methodologies that have proven themselves in open source software production (such as ‘extreme programming’) into the world of machine design, and links it directly to microfactories and distributed enterprise."

Claro que hão-de descobrir que os grandes inimigos de Mongo são os incumbentes que tratam da oferta no mercado e os que vivem da impostagem que se extrai dos actuais laços de produção, emprego e consumo.

Curiosidade do dia

A propósito de "A tale of floods and dams", onde se pode ler:

"Readers will tell me that things are not great in Bulgaria and that growth is disappointing. This is true, but at least per capita growth is positive."

Lembrei-me desta "Curiosidade do dia":

"Apesar do PIB cair, o PIB per capita tem crescido porque a população japonesa está a cair mais depressa." 

Então, se a evolução da emigração nos últimos anos tem sido esta:

Como será a evolução do PIB per capita português?

Acerca do proteccionismo

"protectionism is the crack cocaine of economics. It provides a temporary high but is instantly addictive and leads to certain economic death."

Proteccionismo e manipulação cambial de moeda, também.

Trecho retirado de "Speeches by Richard W. Fisher"

E a sua empresa, vende tudo da mesma maneira?

"Any strategy lives or dies on the basis of its customer value proposition.
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Do we ultimately compete on the basis of our cost structure or another basis that increases our target customer’s willingness-to-pay?
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In other words, will we sell it for more or make it for less — and allocate sales resources accordingly?
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If you’re not clear about this, your sales efforts will run into problems.
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Depending upon your value proposition, sales will face different buyers and selling tasks and require different support processes to deliver value."

Em tempos trabalhei com uma entidade que fazia projectos de investigação com PME. Muita dessa investigação era convertida em produtos inovadores que tinham ... pouco sucesso.
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Nunca me perdoei por na altura, apesar de ter feito e comunicado o diagnóstico, nunca ter proposto uma parceria para abordar o problema, estava a trabalhar com eles num projecto interno.
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Muitos dos produtos inovadores não tinham sucesso, acreditava e acredito ainda hoje, porque as PME os tentavam vender da mesma forma que sempre venderam os seus produtos, usando os mesmos comerciais, com os mesmos argumentos e através dos mesmos canais.
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E a sua empresa, vende tudo da mesma maneira?
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Se tenta vender e comunicar acerca dos novos produtos da mesma forma que sempre fez para os clássicos, qual será a implicação mais provável?
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Não será que novos produtos requerem uma abordagem comercial e de marketing diferente?
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Não será que novos produtos requerem uma estratégia clara?

Trechos retirados de "Any Value Proposition Hinges on the Answer to One Question"

Tecto de vidro? Uma hipótese de explicação (parte XVII)

 Parte I , parte II,  parte III, parte IV, parte V, parte VI, parte VII, parte VIII, parte IX, parte X, parte XI, parte XII, parte XIII, parte XIV, parte XV e parte XVI

"These firms have discovered that they need not serve all customers equally well - many customers are too costly to do business with and have little potential to become profitable, even in the long term. While companies may want to treat all customers with superior service, they find it is neither practical nor profitable to meet (and certainly not to exceed) all customers' expectations. Further - and probably more objectionable to quality zealots - in most cases it is desirable for a firm to alienate or even "fire" at least some of its customers.
While quality advocates may be offended by the notion of serving any customer in less than. the best possible way, in many situations both the company and its customers obtain better value."

Trechos retirados de "The customer pyramaid: Creating and serving profitable customers" de Valarie A Zeithaml; Roland T Rust; Katharine N Lemon
California Management Review; Summer 2001

Preocupação

Fiquei preocupado com a mensagem de "Açores vão pedir medidas a Bruxelas para enfrentar fim das quotas leiteiras". Há quantos anos é que o fim das quotas foi decidido? Quando é que vai ter lugar a última etapa dessa medida?
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31 de Março de 2015!
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E a 9 de Março de 2015 dizer-se:

"O secretário regional da Agricultura dos Açores declarou que pediu uma reunião com o comissário europeu que tem a mesma pasta para debater medidas a adotar para a região face ao desmantelamento das quotas leiteiras."

Essa reunião não devia já ter tido lugar há 3 ou 4 anos?


"O fim do regime de quotas leiteiras"

"Fim das quotas leiteiras são ameaça mais «dramática» que retirada das Lajes" (isto na zona mais bem preparada e mais competitiva para a produção leiteira. Espero que seja um exagero, porque senão nas outras zonas do país vai ser uma desgraça)

Curiosidade do dia

"Na estratégia da vítima é sempre preciso ter nascido hoje, para que a investigação do seu passado não mostre que foi a vítima que se fez vítima. Os portugueses já foram enganados uma vez com a descida da taxa de juro, que os levou a pensar que eram ricos (e produtivos) como os alemães. Correm o risco de serem enganados segunda vez, agora que Mario Draghi lhes oferece o sonho de desvalorizar a moeda e de baixar a taxa de juro para valores que nenhum país europeu, com moeda própria e com barreiras aduaneiras, poderia conseguir. Mas é a vítima que se engana a si própria." 

Trecho retirado de "A ilusão do juro"

Uma outra economia

"in the United States and across Europe, vertically integrated value chains controlled by large companies are already being challenged by new consumer-orchestrated value ecosystems, which allow consumers to design, build, market, distribute, and trade goods and services among themselves, eliminating the need for intermediaries. This bottom-up approach to value creation is enabled by the horizontal (or peer-to-peer) networks and do-it-yourself (DIY) platforms that form the foundation of the “frugal” economy.
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As it stands, nearly 50% of Europeans believe that, within a decade, cars will be consumed as a “shared” good, instead of privately owned, and 73% predict the rapid growth of car-sharing services.[Moi ici: Qual o impacte na quantidade produzida, no emprego do sector, na inflação, e nas estatísticas económicas?]
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This shift in consumer attitudes extends far beyond transport. [Moi ici: Uma tendência que registamos aqui há vários anos com os marcadores "aluguer" e "partilha"] The peer-to-peer home-sharing service Airbnb now rents more room-nights annually than the entire Hilton hotel chain.
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The global market for shared products and services is expected to grow dramatically, from $15 billion today to $335 billion by 2025, without requiring any major investment. The European Commission predicts that peer-to-peer sharing, now an income booster in a stagnant labor market, will evolve into a disruptive economic force.
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the Internet economy is lowering the costs of research and development, design, and production of new goods and services in many sectors. [Moi ici: Se uns são beneficiados, outros são prejudicados e vão procurar defender o passado] Thanks to low-cost DIY hardware kits like the $25 Arduino or the $35 Raspberry Pi, people are increasingly building their own consumer devices. Moreover, customers can now design and manufacture industrial-caliber products by using shared high-tech workshops – so-called “fab labs” – equipped with CNC routers, laser cutters, and 3D printers.
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Such changes are propelling the so-called “maker movement”: a legion of tinkerers who collectively can create products faster, better, and more cheaply than big companies can.[Moi ici: Não é só uma questão do custo, é também uma questão de paixão] Together, the maker movement and peer-to-peer sharing platforms are empowering once-passive customers to become active “prosumers,” thereby spawning a frugal economy that can create value in a more efficient, costeffective, socially inclusive, and environmentally sustainable way.
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A self-organizing frugal economy could generate billions of dollars in value and create millions of jobs in the medium term. But, of course, there will be losers: the large Western companies whose “more for more” business models, backed by huge R&D budgets and closed organizational structures, are not designed to serve the needs of cost-conscious and eco-aware consumers seeking more – and better – for less."

Trechos retirados de "The rise of the frugal economy"

Sim, é muito mais complexo do que o "paradigma" (parte II)

Parte I.
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Em linha com o que andamos a escrever aqui no blogue, há quase dez anos, sobre o sector hoteleiro, este texto para reflexão "Reactive pricing strategies don’t work in hospitality, new Cornell study finds". Infelizmente, duvido que esta informação chegue a quem tem poder para mudar as coisas:

"A ten-year study of pricing and revenues in over 4,000 European hotels revealed that regardless of the economic situation of the time period, hotels that positioned with ADRs above those of their direct competitors benefited from higher relative RevPAR even though they experienced lower comparative occupancies.
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The study, published by the Center for Hospitality Research (CHR), found that hotels that maintained average daily room rates (ADR) somewhat higher than the hotels in their competitive set recorded consistently higher revenue per available room (RevPAR), again compared with their competitor hotels.
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maintaining a consistent relative price over time (as compared to having a fluctuating price) did not significantly affect revenue performance for these European hotels, controlling for hotel type and location.
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"Hotels that offered prices lower than their competitive set did see stronger relative occupancy, as one might expect. However, higher occupancy percentages did not make up for the relatively lower ADR. That is the reason that hotels with relatively lower pricing also saw RevPAR lower than their competitors."" [Moi ici: Em sintonia com o Evangelho do Valor e os gráficos de Robert Dolan e Hermann Simon]

Dá que pensar nas promoções mixirucas de hotéis de 5 estrelas que pagam portagens, ou de "descontos humilhantes".
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Claro que a tentação de pedir protecção ao governo e de criar barreiras à entrada de novos players está presente, como se pode perceber em "Vão abrir 47 hotéis, mas metade da oferta está por ocupar"

Descontos, outro veneno

"There’s a simple pricing mistake which could sink your company. The “D” word. Discounts.
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Discounting is a slippery slope. However, if you never offer price discounts to anyone, you can resist all such requests by deferring to your company “policy.” You can also mitigate end-of-quarter price erosion by firmly communicating, early in the sales process, that your company is not subject to quarterly sales pressures.
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Eliminating price reductions also denies mediocre salespeople their favorite crutch, while encouraging creative salespeople team to craft non-price incentives to spur purchases.
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the importance of identifying, and communicating the full differentiated value to customers, rather than reflexively focusing on just price. The question isn’t which price is more or less, it’s which option provides the greatest economic value to the client and price is just one component of that conversation.”

Recordar os números do Evangelho do Valor para ter uma ideia do poder nefasto dos descontos.
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Pena que, com ligeireza, os jornais económicos apontem o caminho mais fácil "Quer convencer polacos? Baixe o preço". Melhor seria que pregassem outra via, uma mais rebuscada, uma menos intuitiva, uma mais estratégica, uma com mais futuro, uma que ajudasse a criar valor e diferenciação.

Trechos retirados de "This Pricing Mistake Could Sink Your Company"

Contra o mainstream (parte IV)

Parte I, parte II e parte III.
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Para concluir a análise de "The fatal bias":

"Wasted opportunities are a far more significant source of economic inefficiency than wasted resources. [Moi ici: Como não recordar a parábola dos talentos e, a diferença de comportamento entre os servos que apostaram no crescimento da riqueza e, o que teve medo de a perder]...If ‘cost-competitiveness’ or ‘labour-productivity’, or ‘competitive benchmarking’ or ‘operational excellence’ or ‘affordability’ is a defining feature of the frame, then the thinking is unlikely to yield profitable solutions....If we were required to carry a 20 per cent premium price on our products and services, how would we change our thinking? If we had to double our margins without cutting our costs, what strategy would we pursue? [Moi ici: Este é o mindset que tento instilar. Recordo projecto há mais de 10 anos que teve muito bons resultados, apesar do empresário ter uma queda para o controlo dos custos e o espremer as ineficiências, que lhe roubava tempo precioso. No ano passado, voltamos a almoçar e a primeira coisa que me disse foi "Tinha razão! Andava demasiado preocupado com os custos e a deixar de dar tempo e atenção às oportunidades de ouro que podemos criar"] If there were no recriminations for making mistakes in the bold pursuit of greater success, what investments would we choose? If we were forced to double our cost base over the next five years, what changes would we make?Simply by shifting the frame, we would get to different strategies, priorities and solutions. These more strategically astute questions play to our optimism, our imagination, and our responsibility. They get the creative juices flowing. And by countering the lazy option to cut costs, they are more likely, all other things being equal, to lead to enhanced performance."