Shuffling the cards and dealing

With companies, what today is true, tomorrow is a lie and vice versa. Why?
Because economics is not a Newtonian science and is a function of humans and the ever-evolving context.
Companies’ size is somewhat related to the scope and depth of the analysis of the relevant context.

The following article, "What’s At Risk: An 18-Month View of a Post-COVID World", lists a number of issues associated with the context for the next 18 months, which will somehow influence the future of companies in a kind of shuffling the cards and dealing, changing assets and rules.

Análise do contexto

"The American economy is in a double bind. On the one hand, Covid-19 has made it necessary to reduce American dependence on China’s economy, and Chinese manufactured imports in particular. The alarm over China’s stranglehold on America’s access to important pharmaceuticals and health-care goods like ventilators is only the leading edge of this concern.

According to the Los Angeles Times, there are no fewer than 62 bills pending in Congress to alter one aspect or another of our economic relationship with China. Yet at the same time, if the U.S. isn’t prepared to deploy a reshoring strategy to restore itself as a manufacturing and industrial power, decoupling won’t do any good. In the 1960s, manufacturing made up 25% of U.S. gross domestic product. It’s barely 11% today. More than five million American manufacturing jobs have been lost since 2000."

Que impactes é que estas alterações irão provocar na sua empresa? 

Como é que estas alterações podem ser transformadas numa oportunidade?

 

Trecho retirado de "Bringing the factories home" 

Plano de reflexões

Ainda esta semana numa empresa começámos a preencher um Plano de Comunicação. Um documento que irá crescer ao longo do tempo, em função das necessidades que irão emergir tendo em conta diferentes propósitos e audiências.

Ontem li este artigo, "Four ways to reflect that help boost performance" onde encontrei esta interessante tabela:

Que reflexões são feitas na sua empresa? Com que propósito e com que participantes?

Nestes tempo após a 1ª vaga COVID-19 julgo tão importante aquele "Scanning the horizon"... e no entanto, tenho apanhado tantas surpresas negativas... venha ou não venha esmola da UE, os próximos tempos vão piorar antes de melhorar. E o que vejo? Gente confiando que o layoff os vai proteger da necessidade de se reconfigurarem. Gente que acha que isto de reflectir sobre o contexto é treta para a ISO 9001.

Fará sentido desenhar um Plano de Reflexões para a sua empresa?

An uncomfortable feeling

When you are auditing how an organization has treated its context analysis according to ISO 9001:2015,  you may conclude that the organization has answered to all requeriments and yet... feel some how uncomfortable with the exercise. An organization may tick all requirements and yet miss the most important.

I found this passage that I think applies to this feeling:

"As you will see, auditing is concerned with seeking to provide a level of confirmation (or assurance) that an organization has addressed reasonably foreseeable significant risks to its operations and to the achievement of its objectives with a suitable framework (or series of interconnected frameworks) for internal control.

...

Along with providing assurance for the present, auditing should also provide a future focused view of the suitability of this control framework(s) for the changing business environments of the months and years ahead. Information about the future is generally much more valuable to managers than information about the present or the past."

Sometimes it is not easy to communicate that feeling to the organization. You are an auditor not a consultant, and it is not easy to judge the strategic thinking skills of a top management team. 

Sometimes those that are not immersed in a specific situation, that don't live it daily are more aware of the background trends.

 

Passage from "Health and safety, environment and quality audits: a risk-based approach" from Stephen Asbury.

 

Monitorizar o contexto

Ainda ontem me perguntavam acerca das ferramentas que podem ser usadas para monitorizar o contexto externo. Entretanto, li este texto com algumas ideias muito interessantes:

"The reason the company had not considered these and other areas of potential disruption had to do with its entrenched habits and cherished beliefs. The team was accustomed to a rigorous — but narrow — approach to planning. They built financial projections, tracked their immediate competitors, and followed R&D within their industry sector. That was it.
.
What I observed is hardly unique. When faced with deep uncertainty, teams often develop a habit of controlling for internal, known variables and fail to track external factors as potential disrupters. Tracking known variables fits into an existing business culture because it’s an activity that can be measured quantitatively. This practice lures decision makers into a false sense of security, and it unfortunately results in a narrow framing of the future, making even the most successful organizations vulnerable to disruptive forces that appear to come out of nowhere. Failing to account for change outside those known variables is how even the biggest and most respected companies get disrupted out of the market.
.
Futurists call these external factors weak signals, and they are important indicators of change. Some leadership teams lean into uncertainty by seeking out weak signals.
...
As a quantitative futurist, my job is to investigate the future, and that process is anchored in intentionally confronting uncertainties both internal and external to an organization.
...
I use a simple tool to apply the future forces theory to organizations as they are developing strategic thinking. It lists 11 sources of macro change that are typically outside a leader’s control.

It might go against the established culture of your organization, but embracing uncertainty is the best way to confront external forces outside your control. Seeking out weak signals by intentionally looking through the lenses of macro change is the best possible way to make sure your organization stays ahead of the next wave of disruption."

Trechos retirados de "The 11 Sources of Disruption Every Company Must Monitor"

Há que repensar a actuação futura num mundo diferente (parte II)

Parte I.

"Almost a quarter of retailers have suffered a significant impact on their business because supplies have been disrupted by the spread of coronavirus.
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The findings, in a survey by Retail Economics, a consultancy, highlight the pressure being imposed on shops by the outbreak.
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Only 7 per cent of retailers said that they had enough flexibility to be able to switch suppliers, according to a survey of 30 big retailers in the fashion, food and health and beauty sectors.
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About 24 per cent said that they were facing big problems. Another 28 per cent said that they had suffered disruption but were managing the situation, while 48 per cent said that they had experienced no disruption.
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Just under half — 45 per cent — said that sales had fallen and 75 per cent expected to suffer a slump in sales if the outbreak persisted.
...
 “Retailers are battling against significant disruption to supply chains as the coronavirus has choked off production in China. While the impacts may not yet be apparent on shop shelves, about a third of retailers suggested that “continuity of supply” was their biggest concern at present.
...
A separate survey of 2,000 consumers by Retail Economics, in conjunction with Squire Patton Boggs, a law firm, suggested that a quarter of consumers would avoid shopping centres and the high street if the virus spread. More than a third think that the coronavirus poses a high level of threat, up from 23 per cent two weeks ago."

Trechos retirados de "Supply problems take toll on nation of shopkeepers" publicado no The Times de ontem.

Há que repensar a actuação futura num mundo diferente

Outro exemplo, retirado da realidade do dia-a-dia, que ilustra como o mundo pode mudar rapidamente.

"In the cellar of the 18th-century Château du Pavillon in Bordeaux are 70,000 bottles of wine that nobody seems to want to drink. Olivier Fleury, 48, the château owner, had earmarked them for the United States, where they usually sell for between $25 and $60 (£20-£45) a bottle. That was before President Trump imposed a 25 per cent tariff on $7.5 billion worth of European exports including Scotch whisky, Italian cheese and still French wine containing less than 14 per cent alcohol.
...
At the same time there has been an unprecedented supply of grapes and wine in California.
...
Falling demand from a slowing Chinese market, coupled with the effect of the coronavirus, are also taking a toll, prompting a leading French wine merchant to warn that Bordeaux’s most prestigious châteaux will have to cut prices to avoid a collapse in sales.
...
Bordeaux’s wine-making bodies reported a 46 per cent fall in exports to the US since the tariffs. Across the French wine industry, exports to the US were 18 per cent down in the last quarter of 2019 compared with the quarter before."

Não basta uma reacção rápida, há que repensar a actuação futura num mundo diferente.
E a sua empresa? Como é que o mundo está a mudar para ela? Que alternativas de actuação?

Trechos retirados de "Winemakers pressed to cut prices in face of glut" publicado no The Times de 02.03.2020

Incerteza e riscos

"The Chinese province where the virus originated, with a population greater than South Korea, is under quarantine, while streets are empty and factories sit idle. How this plays out is uncertain, but what is certain is that the virus has the potential to change China in fundamental ways — and even if it does not, it should change the way we think about China.
...
The only thing that is certain is that we cannot assume China’s future will resemble its recent past." (Fonte: "The most lasting impact of coronavirus" publicado no Washington Post de ontem)

"China’s coronavirus outbreak has scrambled the global trade in commodities, hitting the country’s massive appetite and challenging global supply lines set up to feed it. Markets for essentials like natural gas, copper and pork have all swooned amid worry over a broad weakening of demand. Prices for some natural resources are plumbing multiyear lows. Chinese companies are canceling orders for crude oil and other commodities, and the country’s once-heaving ports are quieter. Analysts say the disruption could be long lasting, as stockpiles of commodities grow and ships lay idle." (Fonte "Virus ShakesUp Global Supply Lines" publicado no Wall Street Journal de ontem)

Entretanto, mandaram-me um e-mail com este texto:

"Depois da Kuka, da KraussMaffei, da Putzmeister, de parte da Osram e tantas outras, continua o take-over tecnológico silencioso…

• Link 1
• Link 2

Há dias ao ler um jornal espanhol fiquei a matutar na situação alemã:

• a herdeira de Merkel demite-se
• cerca de 100 mil empregos na indústria automóvel em risco com a disrupção em curso

A Alemanha é a locomotiva económica europeia por excelência.

A China com o primeiro trimestre de 2020 arruinado, pelo menos esse.

Como é que a sua empresa está a preparar-se para o impacte destes fenómenos?

Evolução das relações comerciais

Este gráfico ilustra a evolução das relações comerciais norte-americanas com alguns países nos últimos 30 anos:

O declínio da relação com o Japão.
A ascensão e queda(?) da relação com a China.
O lento declínio da relação com o Canadá.
A estagnação da relação com o México na primeira década do século XXI e a retoma da ascensão na segunda década.
A estagnação da relação com a Alemanha.

"The U.S. trade deficit narrowed in 2019 for the first time in six years as disputes with China and other countries reduced the U.S.’s exports and imports while reshaping relationships with economic partners.
...
Meantime, China lost its rank as the top U.S. trade partner, falling to third place behind Mexico and Canada. And the U.S.’s total trade in goods rose faster with Vietnam [Moi ici: A doença anglo-saxónica continua em grande] than with any of its largest trading partners, while trade with China fell most rapidly."

Gráfico e trechos retirados de "Trade Deficit Narrows For First Time Since ’13" publicado ontem no The Wall Street Journal.

"dirty secrets are about what’s happening in here"

“How do we get better at anticipating embryonic issues and opportunities before they emerge?’
If emerging trends are always preceded by a tail of weaker signals, then disruptive change is due not so much to the absence of signals, as it is to do with organisations having either (i) poor detection (failure to look in the right spots) or (ii) poor perception (failure to attach relevance to the signals).
Because embryonic issues appear as weak signals lacking statistical significance, the usual supporting mechanism of data is not available. Understanding processes for change is much more important.
...
When looking for sources of future change, the natural inclination is to look externally, to what is happening out there. However, dirty secrets are about what’s happening in here, uncovering the organisation’s enemies within that have the capacity to cause self-implosion. In my experience, most organisations and industries have their share of dirty secrets. And almost without exception, managers are very poor at addressing these issues ahead of a crisis.
While we remain fascinated by the potential for external discontinuities, recent events have demonstrated the disruptive capacity of internal dirty secrets when they are exposed.
...
To confront these internal issues, managers, industry leaders and governments need to ask themselves:
Which practices are the public unaware of, but if they were, it would alter their perception of who we are and what we do?
...
What cultural hypocrisies underpin our operations or performance?
...
What are the frustrations customers have with our products or services?
What roadblocks do our processes or regulations put in the way of the customer’s experience?
What unnecessary margins can others target?
Do we give our customers a reason to stay?"

Leio estes trechos e faço logo a ponte para os factores internos do contexto das organizações na ISO 9001:2015.
Trechos retirados de “Rethinking Strategy” de Steve Tighe.

Gente não fragilista

No Jornal de Negócios do passado dia 23 de Janeiro no artigo "Jesus salvou têxtil, ficou sem a Zara e ganhou Boss e Hilfiger" sublinhei:

"A Círculos & Contrastes, que acabou por falir, tinha um único cliente, a gigante espanhola Inditex, cuja confiança teve de ser reganhada pela nova Tamanho e Tantos. “Tivemos de começar tudo do zero com a Inditex, da qual continuamos completamente dependentes”, lembrou Jesus, que divide a meias o capital da empresa com o seu “sócio e amigo” José Teixeira.
.
Entretanto, a líder mundial de venda de roupa a retalho começa a desviar massivamente encomendas para fornecedores mais baratos. “A Inditex, que começou a abandonar Portugal, podia sair a qualquer momento, pelo que começamos a fazer o desmame e a arranjar novas soluções”, recordou o co-CEO da empresa.”

Um bom exemplo. Uma equipa de gestão que não se iludiu com o presente e preparou o futuro. Algo que me fez recordar:

“For the unprepared organisation, periods of significant transition are typically marked by confusion (‘What’s happening?’), uncertainty (‘What should we do?’) and reprisals (‘Who’s to blame?’). Caught by surprise, managers tend to react with hasty, inadequate responses that merely demonstrate their misreading of the situation, or else they are struck by strategic inertia, frozen by their inability to fully comprehend what is happening.”

Só revelam que não são fragilistas, que não acreditam que os astros se vão alinhar para que tudo corra bem. Gente que avalia os riscos do contexto

1. Factor externo negativo - Desinvestimento da Inditex em Portugal
2. Factor interno negativo - Dependência importante da Inditex
3. Risco - Perca de um volume importante de vendas e a sobrevivência da empresa

e aje em conformidade.

Trecho retirado de “Rethinking Strategy” de Steve Tighe.

Context, interested parties and risks

I have a commitment to publish a video about context, interested parties and risks, according to ISO 9001:2015, during this month. So, I'm starting to gather raw material to that video.

Let us start with ISO 9000:2015 risk definition.

risk = effect of uncertainty

It's important to higlight the word "uncertainty". Something that we cannot control, something that it is outside of our level of control.

And an effect is a deviation from the expected — positive or negative.

So, one can say that risk is a deviation from the expected (positive or negative) resulting from a trigger event that we cannot control. BTW, the ability to control the trigger event is what separates a positive risk from an improvement opportunity.

What are we talking about when we talk about "the expected"?
Let us keep the conversation here at a strategic level.

Expected results are the results we want the organization as a whole to achieve.

Who expects these results?

The capital owners. 

So, the capital owners are an interested party of this organization. 

We started with expected results and connected those expected results to an interested party. Normally, things go in the opposite direction. Because we have an interested party with should work for some expected results.

Let us consider another example. 

Making money in a sustainable way has a funny particularity, we cannot elect that objective as a first order objective, we should consider that kind of objectives as an indirect consequence of other objectives (something that I learned to call obliquity)

To get a profit an organization must be able to sell a service to a set of target customers at a price above the cost. Why would a set of target customers decide to buy the service to a particular supplier?

Let us consider those target customers as another interested party for this organization.

So, we have here another set of expected results.

A risk would be a consequence, an impact that could afect negatively the ability of an organization to meet an expected result.

An opportunity would be a consequence, an impact that could afect positively the ability of an organization to meet an expected result.

When we think about expected results we can immediately realize that although we work for expected results, because the outside world and the organization are complex entities we can get undesired results that affect our ability to serve interested parties.

We started this text with the risk definition and keep coming to interested parties. Why are interested parties so relevant for managing risks and opportunities?

Interest parties are relevant at two levels.

Level 1 - relevant needs and expectations of relevant interested parties determine expected and undesired results.

Events that we can't control can act together to make our organization get an undesired result (no-compliance with legal requirements)

Level 2 - relevant needs and expectations of relevant interested parties can be used as a basis for determining the importance of each risk and opportunity.

This figure has the three topics that I want to include in the video:

Clause 4.1 (context) gives us a potential trigger event (internal ou external) that reacts with another Clause 4.1 (context) issue, an internal strength or vulnerability. The consequence of that reaction (risk - Clause 6.1) is evaluated against the requirements of interested parties (Clause 4.2).

 If the consequences are significant an action plan should be developed in order to minimize the risk or take advantage of the opportunity.

What is becoming more and more clear to me is the relevance of the expectations and needs of the interested parties in determining the risks and opportunities and their relevance.

Next topic will be focused on the events (Clause 4.1)

ISO 9001 - estar atento à evolução do contexto

Ontem em conversa numa empresa dava conta de um aperto na exigência dos clientes de artigos de moda. Coisas que no passado não eram assunto, agora dão origem a reclamação, devolução ou pedido de abatimento no preço. Depois, à noite, apanhei este artigo no FT "US retailers hit by ‘worst year since 2008’ for big discounts":

"US department stores and clothing retailers, trying to weather the continued onslaught of online shopping, are resorting to some of the biggest discounts since the 2008 crisis to woo consumers, heightening concerns of a squeeze in profit margins.
...
“This is the worst year for discounting since 2008,” said Jan Rogers Kniffen, a retail consultant, of clothing and mall-based retailers. He noted that the discounts came in spite of robust US consumer spending. “Outside of a recession, it’s the deepest I’ve seen.”
...
Mastercard forecasts that US retail sales will rise 3.1 per cent between the start of November and Christmas Eve from the same period a year ago, led by ecommerce.
At mid-market department stores, about two-thirds of merchandise was still on sale last week, according to data companies StyleSage and Refinitiv. Average discounts, at 27 per cent, were only slightly less deep than during the Black Friday weekend."

Eis mais um exemplo da importância de estar atento à evolução do contexto que envolve as empresas:

• Teorias e periferias 
• Contexto, estratégia e bolha azeiteira

Como está a evoluir o contexto da sua empresa?

• Como vai a evolução do pricing dos seus concorrentes?
• Como vai a evolução da inovação da sua empresa e dos concorrentes?
• Como vai a evolução do acesso a recursos estratégicos?
• Como vai a evolução da distribuição?
• Como vai a evolução da propriedade intelectual da sua empresa e dos concorrentes?
• Como vai a evolução da economia?
• Como vai a evolução das operações?
• Como vai a evolução da legislação e/ou regulação?
• Como vai a evolução da qualidade?
• Como vai a evolução da reputação da empresa?
• Como vai a evolução da ...

Já agora:

“Overcoming myopia begins with situating the organisation and its transactional environment within the broader context of society. Such a perspective recognises the deeper causal relationships that enable and drive industry dynamics and outcomes. Understanding what these causal relationships are, how they might change and how they could affect future operating dynamics is the essence of scenario planning.
The transactional environment is the arena in which the organisation participates, where the perceived value or benefits it creates are exchanged to satisfy perceived wants and needs. The organisation has an immediate relationship with this environment.”

Trechos retirados de “Rethinking Strategy” de Steve Tighe.

Contexto, estratégia e bolha azeiteira

Tem uma PME? Está atenta ao contexto e às suas alterações?

O que acontece quando a quantidade de uma commodity que é colocada no mercado aumenta?

   O preço baixa!

O que acontece a um produtor dessa commodity com custos de produção mais elevados?

   Não consegue competir.

Quais são as alternativas para esse produtor com custos mais elevados?

• Fechar! 
• Ou mudar de vida e abandonar a competição baseada no preço, deixar de vender o produto puro e simples e, oferecer algo mais

Ontem li esta notícia, "Sector do azeite vive “verdadeiro pesadelo” no Douro e Trás-os-Montes":

"Olivicultores e lagareiros do Douro e Trás-os-Montes queixam-se de uma “campanha difícil” devido à diminuição do preço do azeite e da azeitona
...
a questão do tratamentos dos subprodutos da colheita de azeitona veio juntar-se à “baixa acentuada do preço do azeite no mercado nacional e internacional e, por inerência, da azeitona”."

Resolvi pesquisar a evolução dos preços do azeite a granel:(fonte)

"As últimas estimativas apontam para um crescimento de 25% no volume de produção de azeite, relativamente à campanha anterior. Prosseguiu a campanha de comercialização, com a oferta a aumentar e escoamento regular.
.
A cotação mais frequente a granel do azeite virgem extra foi de 2,60€/kg."

Resolvi pesquisar a evolução dos preços do azeite a granel em Espanha e Itália (fonte)

• Itália - 4,70€/kg
• Espanha - 2,21€/kg
• Grécia - 2,60€/kg

Entretanto, achei interessante esta "guerra", "No request to look into different olive oil prices, Commission says":

"The issue was put forward by Spanish farming association Unión de Uniones (UDU) at the start of August, after the publication of the July monthly report on the market situation in the  EU’s olive oil and table olives sectors.
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The Spanish press reported that the association would ask the Commission to investigate potential disruption in the olive oil market, hinting that Italy was enjoying a more favourable treatment in comparison to other producers like Spain and Greece.
...
At the same time, olive oil prices showed a 13% increase in Italy compared to the previous year, while a decrease was recorded in Greece and in Spain, at 2% and 19%, respectively.
...
EU agriculture Commissioner Phil Hogan explained in a letter sent in mid-August that the main reason behind the price collapse is a record harvest of 1.79 million tonnes for the 2018/19 marketing year, a 42% increase compared to the previous year."

Voltemos aquelas duas alternativas:

• Fechar! 
• Ou mudar de vida e abandonar a competição baseada no preço, deixar de vender o produto puro e simples e, oferecer algo mais

O que está a acontecer ao olival transmontano? Incapaz de competir no custo com a produção intensiva. Recordar:

"No contexto nacional, o Alentejo acabou por se tornar, desde 2007, na região com mais produção de azeitona, tendo chegado a garantir 75% do total do fruto produzido no país, em 2018, quando há 20 anos representava apenas 25% desse total. Para isso contribuiu o aumento da área de olival na região que, nos últimos 11 anos, cresceu 10%, para 172 mil hectares, assinala o estudo."

Quando não se pode competir pelo preço/custo, compete-se com uma marca. Recordo um postal publicado aqui em Dezembro de 2010:

"façam como se fez para o vinho que teve sucesso. Criem uma cooperativa da região, criem uma marca, desenvolvam uma marca, pensem em castas de azeitona, pensem em regiões demarcadas, não pensem em quantidade, isso fica para os olivais que pertencem às grandes distribuidoras de azeite. Pensem em boutique de azeite, pensem em azeite = luxo, pensem em azeite = néctar, pensem em azeite = saúde." 

Recordo o que escrevi aqui recentemente em "E sem intenção, e sem querer, apareceu na minha mente a decisão de pôr de lado o azeite alentejano" e em "Todos vão perder".

Quando não se pode competir pelo preço/custo, aposta-se na subida na escala de valor, foge-se da via cancerosa e aposta-se na joalharia, procura-se a diferenciação.

BTW, lembram-se da "indústria mais sexy da Europa"?

This time is different!

Há tempos uma empresa com que trabalho há vários anos negociou uma parceria com uma empresa alemã. Depois, ficou meses e meses há espera do contrato que nunca mais chegou.

Talvez essa estória seja explicada por isto:

"Biggest decline since 2009 seems likely toweigh on overall eurozone growth
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Germany’s industrial sector is suffering its steepest downturn for a decade, underlining how the engine of the eurozone’s biggest economy is sputtering.
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Industrial output, which includes Germany’s dominant factory sector, dropped 5.3 per cent in October from the same month in 2018, according to the federal statistics office. The figures suggest the German industrial slowdown is likely to weigh on overall eurozone growth in the fourth quarter.
Combined with data published this week showing industrial orders fell sharply in October, and with most manufacturers expecting a further shrinkage in November, the figures suggest the two-year downturn in German manufacturing is far from ending."

Qual o impacte disto na economia portuguesa?

Entretanto,

2,9% o mesmo valor de Sócrates em 2009. Não sei se sabem que a economia está a tankar, não sei se sabem de onde vem o dinheiro que paga os salários da função pública, o xerife de Nottingham vai ter de cobrar mais aos saxões https://t.co/me3mVfTDUI

— Carlos P da Cruz (@ccz1) December 9, 2019

Trecho retirado de "German industrial output hit by downturn" publicado no FT Weekend 7/8 Dezembro.

"Innovation in manufacturing gravitates to where the factories are"

"In 1987, as the Reagan administration was nearing its end, the economists Stephen S. Cohen and John Zysman issued a prophetic warning: “If high-tech is to sustain a scale of activity sufficient to matter to the prosperity of our economy…America must control the production of those high-tech products it invents and designs.” Production, they continued, is “where the lion’s share of the value added is realized.” Amid the offshoring frenzy that began in the late 1980s, this was heterodox thinking.
...
Manufacturing in China is cheaper, quicker and more flexible, they argue. With China’s networks of suppliers, engineers and production experts growing larger and more sophisticated, many believe that locating production there is a better bet in terms of quality and efficiency. Instead of manufacturing domestically, the thinking goes, U.S. firms should focus on higher-value work: “innovate here, manufacture there.”
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Today many Americans are rightly questioning this perspective.
...
there is a growing recognition that we can no longer afford the outsourcing paradigm. Once manufacturing departs from a country’s shores, engineering and production know-how leave as well, and innovation ultimately follows. It’s become increasingly clear that “manufacture there” now also means “innovate there.”
...
Innovation in manufacturing gravitates to where the factories are. American manufacturers have learned that the applied research and engineering necessary to introduce new products, enhance existing designs and improve production processes are best done near the factories themselves. As more engineering and design work has shifted to China, many U.S. companies have a diminished capability to perform those tasks here.
...
In terms of long-term competitiveness, the biggest strategic consequence of this profound decline in American manufacturing might be the loss of our ability to innovate—that is, to translate inventions into production. We have lost much of our capacity to physically build what results from our world-leading investments in research and development. A study of 150 production-related hardware startups that emerged from research at MIT found that most of them scaled up production offshore to get access to production capabilities, suppliers and lead customers. As for foreign multinationals, many participate in federally funded university research centers and then use what they learn in their factories abroad."

Trecho retirado do WSJ de 16.11.2019, "Innovation Should Be Made in the U.S.A."

Demografia, moda e o futuro do retalho

Usar o Japão como o canário amarelo que vai à frente, que tem de fazer o papel de pioneiro e experimentar. "Look don't buy: Japan reinvents the department store":

"One of Japan's big department store operators is reinventing its business model by converting prime real estate in its stores into showrooms where customers look but don't buy.
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That is only half of the rethink. While Marui Group's shoppers are invited in to have their measurements taken, to test digital equipment or to trade anime collectibles, they are also hit up about applying for credit cards.
...
[Moi ici: O impacte da demografia] According to a family income and expenditure survey by the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, consumer spending on fashion has declined 40% over the past 20 years.
...
Most of Japan's department stores have come to depend on foreign tourists to make up for sales being lost to internet shopping sites, or for sales that are evaporating altogether as Japan's birthrate declines and its population grays."

Operacionalizar uma estratégia

Os trechos que se seguem foram retirados de "Having a Goal Is Not the Same as Having a Strategy. Here's Why":

"Strategy defines how you will approach the market and differentiate yourself. Without a clear strategy, you will be dependent on trends and the forces of your market. [Moi ici: Recordar as últimas palavras do postal de ontem "Como dizia Ortega y Gasset, as PME não podem ser como aqueles que vivem e são em cada instante o que já são, sem esforço de perfeição em si mesmas, bóias que vão à deriva."]

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Unfortunately, many people confuse setting a goal with having a strategy. A goal is a target you want to hit.
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A strategy is how you're doing to do that. It defines the set of choices and moves that you're going to make over a period of time to achieve that goal."

Como formular uma orientação estratégia e criar um plano para a operacionalizar:

"1. Make predictions about the future.
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The first thing you need to do in any strategic planning effort is to predict future trends. The key here is to be able to read the current market, industry, and macro trends that are at play and extrapolate them into the future. [Moi ici: Reecordar a cláusula 4.1 da ISO 9001. Determinar o contexto externo e interno]
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2. Decide on a key set of moves.
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Once you have your market assessment, you can start developing your key moves. Essentially, these are the ways you are going to respond to the pending changes in the market that will put you in the best position for your business and your customers.
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3. Define your critical capabilities and policies.
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Once you have planned your moves, you need to define the capabilities and policies that will allow you to implement those moves. These are the core capabilities you need to develop and the actions you are going to take, and, more importantly, the actions you are not going to take.
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Once that is mapped out, we then look at the projects and tasks that need to be completed each quarter to make the new strategy relative. This includes all of the milestones for the capabilities and policies defined in step three. This sets clear goals for implementing strategy on a quarter-by-quarter basis.
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This last step is what most companies miss. They come up with a brilliant strategy, but fail to create a realistic plan for how to implement it. [Moi ici: Recordar o que escrevemos aqui sobre a criação das iniciativas estratégicas... recordar "Transformar uma empresa de forma alinhada com a estratégia (parte VIII)"] 

Ver para lá do que se conhece (parte II)

Na parte I escrevi:

"E se é possível com um exoesqueleto... não há limites.
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Um tema que sigo há anos e que associo à incapacidade das empresas incumbentes verem para lá do que conhecem:"

Até que ponto estes anúncios no FB,  são o começo de uma revolução na democratização do uso de exoesqueletos?

Isso depende...

"Our learnings support a single point, which Paul and I named in Mike’s honor. Mazzeo’s Law: The answer to every strategic question is “It depends.” Corollary: The trick is knowing what it depends on.
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What we found is that there’s no best path to business success. Managers successfully address seemingly similar problems in very different ways and, as our corollary suggests, the trick is to find which solution fits with the specifics of your business.
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The key to making good business decisions is to assess how the potential benefits and potential costs of a particularly strategy, in this case an incentive plan, pertains in your specific situation."

Trechos retirados de "The Answer to Every Business Question Is “It Depends”"