Teoria conspirativa

Estes tweets:

O alojamento local já é amplamente regulado em Portugal. O que vai acontecer é diferente: a limitação da actividade em algumas freguesias de Lisboa. São coisas muito diferentes. https://t.co/Y4JrxPizkU

— Bruno Faria Lopes (@bfarialopes) October 12, 2018

 

Fizeram-me lembrar este trecho de Meses:

"The driving force of the market process is provided neither by the consumers nor by the owners of the means of productions-land, capital goods, and labor-but by the promoting and speculating entrepreneurs . . . Profit-seeking speculation is the driving force of the market as it is the driving force of production."

Uma teoria conspirativa defenderá a tese de que os legisladores estarão ao serviço dos especuladores para criar toda uma variedade de barreiras que geram lucro. Se não houvesse barreiras, o lucro seria muito menor. Os incumbentes esfregarão as mãos com estas alterações legislativas.

There will be surprises!

"At the individual level Austrians have taken sharp exception to the manner in which neoclassical theory has portrayed the individual decision as a mechanical exercise in constrained maximization.
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Such a portrayal robs human choice of its essentially open-ended character, in which imagination and boldness must inevitably play central roles. For neoclassical theory the only way human choice can be rendered analytically tractable, is for it to be modeled as if it were not made in open-ended fashion, as if there was no scope for qualities such as imagination and boldness. Even though standard neoclassical theory certainly deals extensively with decision making under (Knightian) risk, this is entirely consistent with absence of scope for the qualities of imagination and boldness, because such decision making is seen as being made in the context of known probability functions. In the neoclassical world, decision makers know what they are ignorant about. One is never surprised. For Austrians, however, to abstract from these qualities of imagination, boldness, and surprise is to denature human choice entirely."

Como anónimo engenheiro da província, apaixonado pelo mundo do turnaround, sobrevivência e sucesso das empresas, sempre me espantei com o "basicismo" da abordagem económica do mainstream ao mundo da concorrência. Recordo, por exemplo, "muitas vezes escandalizo-me com a forma como os economistas tratam a economia real" o que me leva logo a um clássico deste país: o Senhor dos Perdões. Recordo, por exemplo. Recordar também um clássico de 2010, "Realidade e teoria".

Trecho retirado de "Entrepreneurial Discovery and the Competitive Market Process: An Austrian Approach" de Israel Kirzner, publicado por Journal of Economic Literature, Vol. XXXV (March 1997), pp. 60-85

Riscos e oportunidades (parte II)

Parte I.

“How to Discover OpportunitiesYou may not have a clue whether you have an opportunity or not. You do not know what you do not know. Verifying whether your firm has present strategic problems is relatively easy. You only have to look for performance gaps. Uncovering “present strategic opportunities generally requires more work. Your stakeholders may already have ideas about potential opportunities but you may also have to search for potential sources of new opportunities for your firm.
Although you may know that your firm has a problem, you may only imagine you have an opportunity. An opportunity gap is not about a decline of the realized performance but about an increase of the objective, that is potential performance. ... You cannot measure the opportunity gap right away, like a problem gap. You need to explore the opportunity by starting to investigate its potential sources: Why would there be an opportunity? Potential sources of opportunities are a firm’s strengths and external opportunities. Here you use components of your SWOT analysis. In an opportunity exploration, you may even start with an exploration of your firm’s potential strengths and potential external opportunities.
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“How to Use a SWOT to Discover OpportunitiesHow to use your SWOT to identify opportunities for your firm? You create a two-by-two confrontation map. You map the strengths and weaknesses on one axis against the opportunities and threats on the other. Next you search for matches of internal components (strengths and weaknesses) and external components (opportunities and threats). By pairing internal and external components you create four quadrants in the map. [Moi ici: Recordar a análise TOWS] Two quadrants point to opportunities. The other two quadrants point to potential explanations for problem gaps.
Matches between strengths and opportunities are high-priority opportunities because they offer the biggest upside potential for the firm.
Matches between weaknesses and opportunities are low-priority opportunities because your firm (at present) lacks the potential to seize the opportunities.
Matches between weaknesses and threats are high-priority problems because they present the biggest downward risk for your firm.
Matches between strengths and threats are low-priority problems because your firm has the potential to counter these threats and thus solve these problems.”

Excerto de: Marc Baaij. “Mapping a Winning Strategy”.

O futuro do trabalho em Mongo

Como escrevemos aqui há anos e anos sobre Mongo e o futuro do trabalho: "Detlef Gürtler “A revolução digital vai desconstruir a organização social atual”":

"Comecemos pelas más notícias [Moi ici: Más?]: esta revolução digital irá desconstruir a organização social formada na era industrial. A sociedade como a conhecemos tem sido, em grande parte, uma conquista da primeira revolução industrial."

Título alternativo

Leio o título "Empregadores portugueses são os menos escolarizados da UE" e vem-me logo à cabeça um título alternativo "Mais escolarizados de Portugal são os menos empreendedores da UE".

Generalidades versus granularidade

Via FB do Hélder F. cheguei a esta tabela "Industries with the fastest growing and most rapidly declining output".

Não pude deixar de recordar o que tinha lido durante a caminhada matinal:

"A company formulating its growth strategy needs to develop insights into trends, future growth rates, and market structures at much greater depth than the aggregate industry level. Insights into sub-industries, segments, categories, and micro-markets are the building blocks of portfolio choices. They are indispensable for companies seeking to make the right decisions about where to compete.
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...
Granularity level G0
The Earth—or, in our context, the global marketplace—is the highest level of aggregation with the least granularity: the ultimate segment of one. The world economy is growing by roughly 6.2 percent a year in nominal terms.
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Granularity level G1
If we want to investigate why some companies grow at a rate that is faster or slower than about 6 percent, the first step is to divide up the economy. The Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS) carves it up into 24 broad industry groups ranging from telecommunications services to energy to biotech.
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Granularity level G2
Frankly, decisions at the G1 level (such as whether to be in telecommunications, energy, or biotech) are not within the ambit of most companies, so we need not dwell on them here. To get to a deeper level of granularity, we can break down the 24 groups into 151 industries by using other readily available GICS statistics. For instance, the “food, beverages, and tobacco” group breaks down into the component industries “food,” “beverages,” and “tobacco.”
...
Granularity level G3
Each industry can then be divided up again both by sub-industry and by market (country or region). Within the food industry, for instance, two examples of sub-industries might include frozen foods or savories, oils, and dressings.
In analyzing companies’ performance we found that it was usually possible to reach the G3 level of granularity by taking the finest level of data that companies report to the markets. Provided we have access to enough information, we can zoom in on individual sub-industries in individual markets: frozen foods in China, say.
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Granularity level G4
Sometimes it is possible to use proprietary databases and internal company data to dig deeper than the level at which companies normally report. The definition of the G4 level of granularity varies slightly from industry to industry, but, in essence, it’s the level of categories within sub-industries (such as ice cream within frozen foods) or customer segments within a broad product or service category (such as weight-conscious snackers). The G4 level is important: it represents the minimum level of granularity at which companies need to operate when setting growth priorities and making decisions about resource allocation.
...
Granularity level G5
This is a view of the world at the level of individual customers and transactions —the ultimate segment of one, numbering many billions. [Moi ici: Levar ao extremo o B2I (2018 e 2013)]

Trechos retirados de "The Granularity of Growth - How to Identify the Sources of Growth and Drive Enduring Company Performance" the P. Viguerie, S. Smit e M. Baghai 

Teste

Daqui a um ano, a 9 de Outubro de 2019, revisitaremos este postal para tirar dúvidas:

• OCDE: Economia portuguesa dá sinais de aceleração
• FMI vê Portugal a crescer pouco em 2019 e mais desequilibrado
• “Portugal devia ter vergonha de não ser um país de topo mundial”, diz economista dinamarquês Steen Jakobsen

"there are two very different types of optimism"

"The practical insight is that there are two very different types of optimism. Complacent optimism is the feeling of a child waiting for presents. Conditional optimism is the feeling of a child who is thinking about building a treehouse. “If I get some wood and nails and persuade some other kids to help do the work, we can end up with something really cool.”
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What the theory of endogenous technological progress supports is conditional optimism, not complacent optimism. Instead of suggesting that we can relax because policy choices don’t matter, it suggests to the contrary that policy choices are even more important than traditional theory suggests."

Faz-me recordar:

"O presidente de uma associação não pode e não deve falar impunemente. Deve ser consequente, deve ser responsável. Não deve mentir mas deve dar esperança. Não esperança cor de rosa, não esperança mágica mas esperança com base nas oportunidades que possam existir." 

Trecho retirado de "Conditional Optimism about Progress and Climate"

Aproveitar tudo para fugir do lado racional

Ontem em conversa com um empresário de Felgueiras, ele falou-me de Nadim Habib, por causa de uma conferência a que assistiu em Coimbra. Tal como eu em 2013, gostou muito e deu por bem empregue o ter levado consigo alguns colaboradores.

Umas mensagens que guardou foi:

• dantes os clientes ou eram ricos ou eram pobres;
• agora nunca sabemos se se vão comportar como pobres (e regatear tudo), ou se se vão comportar como ricos (e não discutir o preço).

Eu acredito que muitas vezes os clientes comportam-se como pobres porque quem vende não os consegue convencer do valor que vão experienciar. Certo que algumas vezes esses clientes ainda estão numa fase de desenvolvimento tal, que não lhes permite experienciar o tal valor em toda a sua extensão. Por isso, faz sentido que regateiem o preço.

Recordei-me desta conversa ao ler este artigo "Olive oil gets a modernist makeover":

"Most olive oil looks like it belongs in your grandma’s kitchen. Brightland makes beautiful bottles, full of pure, hand-crafted oil by California farmers."

Há dias citava esta frase que acreditó sintetiza a transição para Mongo:

“In the past, jobs were about muscles, now they’re about brains, but in the future they’ll be about the heart.” 

No mundo do século XX azeite é azeite, deve ser "puro", estar "graduado", e ser entregue numa garrafa económica que permite embalamento rápido e seguro. Tudo pode ser explicado de forma muito racional.

Em Mongo há os que vendem azeite e há os que vendem mais do que azeite. E os que vendem mais do que azeite têm de aproveitar todas as oportunidades para fugirem da classificação racional e entrar no mundo do coração:

"Iyer wanted the bottles to look attractive enough that people would want to display them in their kitchens, rather than hiding them away in the pantry."

Riscos e oportunidades

“We define two kinds of strategic issues (problems and opportunities) [Moi ici: Riscos e oportunidades na linguagem da ISO 9001] in terms of a substantial and structural gap between your firm’s overarching performance objective and its realized performance. A firm’s overarching objective is generally profit, but firms can also aim at objectives related to people and the planet. A strategic problem is a negative development or event that substantially and structurally prevents your firm from achieving its overarching objective, if your firm does not adapt its strategy. For example, the consumer trend to use less sugar reduces the profit of a bottler of sweet soft drinks. A strategic problem negatively affects your firm’s realized performance and hence creates a so-called performance gap between that performance and your firm’s overarching performance objective...
The potential causes of strategic problems are your firm’s weaknesses and/or external threats. We acknowledge that these causes are components of a strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats (SWOT) analysis. Such analysis can support the exploration of your firm’s present problem but not as a start. You do not start with the causes of present problems but with their consequences: underperformance. For present problems, you begin with measuring the performance gap. But when you need to explain the gap, then you may use the SWOT analysis, in particular, the weaknesses and threats.
...
Besides strategic problems, we distinguish a second type of issue: strategic opportunities. We define a strategic opportunity as a positive development or event that may allow your firm to substantially and structurally raise its overarching performance objective. For example, the development of a new drug is an opportunity for a pharmaceutical company. Such opportunities also create performance gaps: difference between your firm’s old objective and its new, raised objective. Opportunities require new strategies for your firm to realize its raised overarching objective. Whereas problems create performance gaps by reducing your firm’s realized performance, opportunities create gaps by raising your firm’s objective. Both types of issues require exploring a performance gap for developing insights into how best to close your firm’s gap.”

Excerto de: Marc Baaij. “Mapping a Winning Strategy”

Transformar organizações

Dedicado a uma empresa bem sucedida que procura focar-se ainda mais nos clientes-alvo.

"Inspire people by presenting a compelling vision for the future. During times of uncertainty, people experiencing change want a clear view of the path ahead. It’s important to share what you know – including what’s changing, when, and how. But for most change initiatives, it is also helpful to start with a narrative or story that clearly articulates the “big picture” – why change is important and how it will positively affect the organization long-term.
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Keep employees informed by providing regular communications. Change communications is never a one-and-done event; keeping employees informed is something that you will have to do throughout every step of the change process.
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When thinking about how to communicate, keep the following in mind:
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Be clear and consistent: All of your communications should tie back to the narrative that you developed, reiterating the case for change and presenting a compelling future vision.
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You will not have all the answers: Often times, you will not have all the answers employees are looking for, and that breeds anxiety and uncertainty. It’s important to focus on what you know, and be candid about what you don’t. If you do not have an answer, say so. When this occurs, it’s important to let employees know you are committed to communicating openly and transparently, and will follow-up as soon as you know more.
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Don’t forget to articulate “What’s in it for me?”: One of the most important phrases you may come across in change communications is “what’s in it for me?” If your employees understand what’s in it for them personally, you’re more likely to see individuals commit to and own the change. Failing to articulate “what’s in it for me” will only hinder your efforts.
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Empower leaders and managers to lead through change. Major changes or transformations often require asking employees to adopt specific behaviors or skillsets in order to be successful. And when senior leaders model the behavior changes, transformations are five times more likely to be successful.
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Find creative ways to involve employees in the change. When planning for major change events, it is important to solicit feedback and engage people in the process. This helps build ownership in the change, and makes employees more likely to support the change and even champion it."

Trechos retirados de "Don’t Just Tell Employees Organizational Changes Are Coming — Explain Why"

"everyone to be acting rationally"

“Traditionally, economists considered everyone to be acting rationally, which led to rigorous-seeming curves that were easy to comprehend but in the real world rarely predicted actual behavior. It turned out that people don’t view their lives as a series of utility curves.”

Excerto de: Chris Bradley. “Strategy Beyond the Hockey Stick”

"in the future they’ll be about the heart

Excelente resumo de uma das mensagens deste blogue:

“In the past, jobs were about muscles, now they’re about brains, but in the future they’ll be about the heart.”

Mongo é isto!

Nas sociedades pré-industriais o sucesso passava pelo músculo. O século XX foi o apogeu da economia baseada no cérebro, na racionalidade, no planeamento a régua e esquadro tão ao gosto de Taylor, ou Sloan.

O século XXI, será o século de Mongo, das tribos, do pessoal, do único, do coração.

"at too high a level"

Este texto, "O puzzle da produtividade portuguesa: que caminho tomar?", fez-me recordar este trecho:

"performance is granular, by which we mean driven by growth in the sub-segments and categories of industries in which a company competes as well as by the revenues that it acquires through M&A activity. We will also show that these drivers are generally much more important than market-share gains in determining how fast you grow.
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This seemingly counterintuitive finding has important implications. A typical management team needs to change the way it thinks about company resources, not least its own time. It needs to pay more attention to which businesses the company is in, and particularly the sub-segments in which it competes."

 E sobretudo este:

"“A granular world,” we show that when you are searching for growth, analyses of industries and megatrends are usually pitched at too high a level [Moi ici: É este o ponto. Argumentação demasiado generalista, cheia de boas intenções, mas que não se compromete como o porco, só como a galinha - num pequeno almoço inglês] to offer you any help. In order to identify growth opportunities, you need to get well below the industry level."

Trechos retirados de "The Granularity of Growth - How to Identify the Sources of Growth and Drive Enduring Company Performance" the P. Viguerie, S. Smit e M. Baghai

Reformar mete medo

“As Daniel Kahneman and Dan Lovallo explained in their work on the human tendency toward bold forecasts and timid plans, we’re inclined to see exceptional growth in sales, earnings, and other metrics but won’t make the big moves that could generate those results. They published their paper 25 years ago, but we keep making the same errors. In essence, we are saying: “We’re going to do a ton better next year by doing the same things we did this year, or maybe just a little more.”"

Excerto de: Chris Bradley. “Strategy Beyond the Hockey Stick”.

Para reflexão

Sempre relacionei Mongo com a ascensão de múltiplas tribos com interesses assimétricos que levam ao choque com as empresas grandes habituadas a trabalhar para o meio-termo: Tu não és meu irmão de sangue! Ou não somos plankton!

Nunca tinha pensado nas consequências políticas de Mongo:

"Globalization has brought rapid economic and social change and made these societies far more diverse, creating demands for recognition on the part of groups that were once invisible to mainstream society. These demands have led to a backlash among other groups, which are feeling a loss of status and a sense of displacement. Democratic societies are fracturing into segments based on ever-narrower identities, threatening the possibility of deliberation and collective action by society as a whole. This is a road that leads only to state breakdown and, ultimately, failure. Unless such liberal democracies can work their way back to more universal understandings of human dignity, they will doom themselves—and the world—to continuing conflict."

Jesus disse para dar a outra face, mas a palavra de Jesus chega a cada vez menos gente. Por isso, é natural que à medida que "they get bitter and bitter" deixem de dar a outra face e ripostem.

E isto:

"Economic distress is often perceived by individuals more as a loss of identity than as a loss of resources. Hard work should confer dignity on an individual. But many white working-class Americans feel that their dignity is not recognized and that the government gives undue advantages to people who are not willing to play by the rules."

Parece que estou a ouvir conversas num café de Cesar, ou de Felgueiras - "they get bitter and bitter"

"Multiculturalism has become a vision of a society fragmented into many small groups with distinct experiences."

"Today, for example, merely using the words “he” or “she” in certain contexts might be interpreted as a sign of insensitivity to intersex or transgender people. But such utterances threaten no fundamental democratic principles; rather, they challenge the dignity of a particular group and denote a lack of awareness of or sympathy for that group’s struggles." 

Trechos retirados de "Against Identity Politics: The New Tribalism and the Crisis of Democracy"

Universidades e estratégia

Eclesiastes 3:1-8

É este eterno retorno, eterna maré que vemos quando olhamos para o fluxo das estratégias ao longo do tempo. É a tradução das subidas e descidas dos montes e vales na paisagem competitiva enrugada.

Em Fevereiro de 2007 escrevi "Formular uma estratégia, é a actividade mais sexy da gestão (1)":

"Durante anos, anos de excesso de alunos, face ao número de vagas nas universidades públicas, áàs universidades privadas bastava existirem, terem vagas para assegurarem a sua subsistência.
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A demografia minou este modelo de negócio, o número de alunos baixou e, em simultâneo, o número de vagas no ensino superior público subiu…"

É preciso pensamento estratégico para outro nível do jogo:

"Nos tempos que correm, não basta ter a porta aberta e esperar que os alunos venham a correr matricular-se, é preciso seduzi-los, é preciso convidá-los a vir, porque existe concorrência, quer de universidade privadas, quer de outras instituições públicas.
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Assim, há que “calçar os sapatos” de um potencial “cliente” e perguntar:
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“Porque é que deverei optar por essa Escola? O que é que eu ganho pessoalmente, se preferir essa Escola, em detrimento das outras?” "

Agora, em Outubro de 2018 temos "Porque é que há cada vez mais universitários a preferirem as privadas?" onde encontramos a resposta: diferenciação, bolsas para os melhores alunos, empregos dentro da universidade.

"Qualquer empresa privada, minimamente organizada, passa por este desafio várias vezes ao longo da sua existência. Formular uma estratégia, escolher o terreno onde pretende combater, escolher o nicho onde pretende prosperar."

Interessante, o governo decidiu cortar lugares nas universidades públicas no litoral para canalizar alunos para as universidades públicas do interior e... os alunos foram para as privadas do litoral que ficam mais baratas depois de considerados todos os custos... faz-me lembrar "The Predator State"

Nem uma palavra sobre subsídios

Há anos que o @paulojsvaz prevê uma injecção de 2 milhões de portugueses na economia nacional com os retornados da Venezuela e da África do Sul.

Lembrei-me logo disso ao ler "A tragédia da Venezuela está a tornar-se a riqueza de Estarreja". Entre 1993 e 2017 vivi em Estarreja. Por isso, desde cedo me habituei a ouvir o sotaque castelhano nas ruas e lojas. Por isso, durante anos os cachitos eram uma compra para levar para casa para os miúdos.

Algo interessante no texto, nem uma vez se fala de subsídios ou de apoios. Gente que chega pronta para trabalhar e não para esmolar.

Outra tendência que noto há cerca de dois anos, mas que no último mês se tem agudizado é a presença de brasileiros no Grande Porto. Viajar no metro ou nos STCP é sinónimo de ouvir brasileiros. Ontem fui a uma lavandaria e atendeu-me uma jovem brasileira, hoje no local onde tomo café quando fico no escritório fui atendido por uma cara nova ... brasileira.

A coisa fica mais interessante no El Corte Inglês de Gaia, atrás dos balcões vozes de jovens brasileiras. Do lado de cá do balcão, dezenas de turistas endinheirados brasileiros.

BTW, Estarreja era terra de venezuelanos. Murtosa terra de amaricanos. Era comum estar na fila para comprar frango de churrasco no Intermarché e ouvir os velhotes reformados a discutir entre si qual a offshore que dava melhores condições para receberem as suas pensões. Foi interessante ouvir emigrantes no café Miranda, nas eleições Bush-Gore, entre si preferirem Gore porque não esqueciam que o pai dele tinha prometido não aumentar impostos e depois aumentou-os.

Contra a academia, marchar, marchar! (parte III)

Parte I e parte II.

"80 percent of the variance in revenue growth is explained by choices about where to compete, according to research summarized in The Granularity of Growth, leaving only 20 percent explained by choices about how to compete. Unfortunately, this is the exact opposite of the allocation of time and effort in a typical strategy-development process. Companies should be shifting their attention greatly toward the “where” and should strive to outposition competitors by regularly reallocating resources as opportunities shift within and between segments."

Como não recordar a série sobre o tecto de vidro.
Trechos retirados de "Have you tested your strategy lately?"

Sempre Mongo

"Small independent bookstores, however, are thriving. In fact, a study at Harvard Business School found that while the number of independent bookstores plummeted 43% between 1995 and 2000, during the heyday of Barnes & Noble and Borders, it soared by 35% between 2009 and 2015.
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Part of the reason for this trend is that book sales data tends to be shallow. Even a successful book may only sell one or two copies per location per month. That makes it difficult for algorithms to predict demand effectively. An independent bookstore with an attentive staff, however, is much closer to its customers and can often make better judgments.
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The Harvard study found that independent bookstores thrive through a formula of community, curation and convening. Because independent bookstores are embedded in their community’s fabric, they are well placed to curate titles that appeal to their customers and convene events that strengthen those bonds, drive sales and increase their ability to curate."

Trecho retirado de "The Retail Business Is Dead. Long Live The Retail Business!"