"Do you know what your strategy is?"

"Does your company (or the one you want to build) have a compelling and clearly articulated North Star? This refers to a company's stated purpose, values, and priorities. The logical extension of this question is explored here: Do you know what your strategy is?
...
Corporate executives often struggle with strategy formulation and communication. In such cases, the problem often starts with an inability to define genuine North Star corporate goals that can be translated into specific, measurable, achievable, relevant, and time-dependent objectives. This often leads to strategic inertia, undermining the ability to effectively respond to the accelerating pace of marketplace shifts. Ask any CEO, and you'll undoubtedly hear this: "Of course we know our strategy!" If this were the case, one should also get the same response from each of the company's key constituencies: the board of directors, employees, business partners, customers, and investors. But the reality is, far too often, companies can't or don't express their strategy in terms that are clearly understood and embraced by their stakeholders. Or there is a serious disconnect between what senior executives say their business strategy and priorities are, and how employees are actually managed and incentivized."

A maior ilusão da comunicação é crer que ela teve lugar, é crer que o conteúdo comunicado é uma realidade objectiva.

O que a vida cada vez mais me leva a concluir é que a realidade existe. No entanto, nós humanos nunca vemos a realidade. Nós só conseguimos percepcionar uma espécie de realidade aumentada

E o que percepcionamos está fortemente influenciado pelas experiências de vida que nos vão acontecendo e que nos vão construindo permanentemente.

Acreditar que um texto escrito ou uma comunicação verbal é objectiva é uma ilusão tremenda.

Trechos retirados de "If You're in a Dogfight, Become a Cat!: Strategies for Long-Term Growth"

"driver of productivity differences"

Um dos temas que mais gosto de estudar é o da heterogeneidade das empresas de um mesmo sector de actividade que operam num mesmo país, com as mesmas leis, com a mesma população e com o mesmo clima.

Ainda recentemente escrevi:

• "But there is a third way" (parte II)
• A realidade existe mesmo?

Por isso, não podia deixar de referir este artigo publicado ontem pela HBR "Good Management Predicts a Firm’s Success Better Than IT, R&D, or Even Employee Skills":

"“…no potential driver of productivity differences has seen a higher ratio of speculation to actual empirical study” than management.
...
Our survey was nationally representative but limited to manufacturing, covering small and large firms across every state in America. With a response rate of almost 80%, it covered plants that account for more than half of all U.S. manufacturing employment, and so is genuinely representative of U.S. management practices. In total, we got data from over 35,000 manufacturing plants in a massive national survey.
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What does the first-ever management survey at this scale tell us?
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Management Matters, a LotWe found that only one-fifth of plants use three-quarters or more of the performance-oriented management techniques that we asked about, but that these plants had dramatically better performance than their competitors. The plants that have adopted these monitoring and incentives-based management practices were far more productive, innovative, and profitable. Every 10% increase in a plant’s management index was associated with an impressive 14% increase in labor productivity, meaning the higher value added per worker. And it wasn’t just that already successful firms were more likely to be well-run; plants that switched to performance-oriented practices tended to become significantly more productive, suggesting that better management was driving better performance. Companies with higher management scores were also more likely to expand and less likely to go out of business."

"Entretanto, no retalho físico a mortandade continua"

A evolução do retalho é um tema que me interessa porque é super importante para as PME com que trabalho. A maioria das PME portuguesas não tem marca própria relevante. Ou produzem para marcas de outros ou produzem componentes que serão incorporados nas marcas de outros (B2B2C ou B2B2B2C).

Assim, o seu futuro depende em larga escala, segundo o modelo de negócio actual, do sucesso da última interacção da cadeia, aquele ...B2C. Se esta última interacção falhar, tal como falharam em massa as sapatarias de rua quando chegaram os centros comerciais, as nossas PME terão um problema em mãos.

Ainda recentemente escrevi:

• Isto não vai resultar; e
• "the primary role of the store will not be to sell product"

Não deixa de ser interessante, depois do Isto não vai resultar perceber que a Amazon avança nesta onda "Amazon has patented an automated on-demand clothing factory". Pensem no que escrevo aqui há anos sobre o advento de Mongo e a sua relação com pequenas séries e rapidez. 

Não é líquido que o desafio que a Toyota e Mercedes não conseguiram resolver tenha sido ultrapassado mas é uma pedra no caminho de Mongo. A dúvida maior não é sobre a capacidade de produzir, a dúvida maior reside na capacidade de criar procura... Mongo é também o mundo das tribos e das marcas com valores. Recordar o recente "Conciliação possível?"

Entretanto, no retalho físico a mortandade continua, "Los grandes almacenes británicos dan otro paso atrás: Debenhams y Marks&Spencer cierran 14 tiendas más".

Marks & Spencer era, antes da China, um cliente de topo da TMG portuguesa onde trabalhei entre 1987 e 1989.

BTW, este texto "The Amazon.com Effect: Retailers Say They’re Not Selling, but Consumers Report They Are Buying" (também relacionado com o tema da obsolescência dos indicadores do século XX para apoio à tomada de decisões no século XXI, este postal que ontem fez exactamente 5 anos: "Os indicadores também ficam obsoletos")

Treta!

Ontem, durante uma caminhada, ouvi este artigo "This Swedish Scientist's Transparent Wood Could Transform Architecture" .

.

Depois, durante o almoço, ao consultar o Twitter, fui encaminhado para este outro artigo "Crescer acima das possibilidades" onde li:

"o mercado português, ainda que importante, é demasiado pequeno quando se quer construir valor acrescentado."

E murmurei:
- TRETA!

Então, subitamente surgiu uma relação muito clara entre os dois artigos.

Quando acabei de ouvir o primeiro artigo, ao empurrar a porta lateral do centro comercial onde ia almoçar, pensei logo: este sueco seguiu o caminho menos percorrido. As muito grandes e rentáveis empresas de papel e pasta em Portugal em vez de subirem na escala de valor para continuarem a crescer, só conhecem uma forma de crescimento: aumentar a produção, aumentar a eficiência, aumentar a velocidade de produção. Por isso, é que infestaram o país de eucaliptos. Por isso, é que avançaram para outros países para continuar a infestação. Por isso, é que manobram governos de direita e de esquerda para que continue a crescer a área plantada em Portugal.

Conseguem ver a relação com o artigo da subdirectora do DN? Para gente do século XX só se aumenta a rentabilidade com produtividades superiores baseadas no denominador, baseadas na quantidade.

Agora imaginem o potencial de valor acrescentado que pode estar associado a futuras aplicações de madeira transparente.

E já agora, nunca se interrogam como é que um país tão pequeno consegue ser líder na produção de papel e pasta? Será que nos outros países as suas papeleiras conseguiriam fazer o que por cá se fez e se continua a querer fazer a nível da floresta?


BTW, um pouco de tragicomédia - imaginem aplicar o discurso da subdirectora ao seu próprio jornal... pois.

Curiosidade do dia

Quando as TV, as rádios e demais maioria de media tradicionais estão ao serviço da situação, ou da oposição, antes da procura da verdade.

Mais gente com skin-in-the-game.

"traced to factors under management control"

"In 87 percent of the cases [of stalled growth], the cause could be traced to factors under management control, like management complacency, failure to maintain product innovation, premature abandonment of a viable core business, or a failed major acquisition. In only 13 percent of the cases was management believed to be the unfortunate victim of external factors outside of its control, like major regulatory reform or geopolitical asset seizure."

Trecho retirado de "If You're in a Dogfight, Become a Cat!: Strategies for Long-Term Growth"

Flexibilidade e rapidez a alimentar o reshoring

Em "Small U.S. Manufacturers Struggle to Bring Jobs Back Home" encontro vários tópicos que elenco há anos para justificar o reshoring: Mongo, a flexibilidade e a rapidez. (recuar a 2007)

"began moving operations back to the U.S. from Germany three years ago to hold on to customers frustrated by long lead times and shipping delays.
...
For smaller firms, a “Made in the U.S.A.” label can add marketing cachet and strengthen ties to suppliers and customers as demands for quick delivery escalate.
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But small firms also face particular hurdles. They typically operate with modest cash reserves and can’t always attract top talent or find U.S. suppliers that meet their specifications. Reshoring challenges are especially pronounced for small businesses in sectors where the U.S. ecosystem of manufacturers, suppliers and skilled workers has largely disappeared.
...
Still, the number of firms taking a look at reshoring is growing. Nearly 70 percent of U.S. and European manufacturing and distribution companies said that they were considering moving production closer to their homes, according to a 2016 survey by the consulting firm
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AlixPartners LLP. That is up from 40 percent in 2015, according to the survey, which included responses from 107 small, midsize and large companies."

"the clarity of thought"

"One clue that someone doesn't understand a problem is that they need a large number of variables and factors to explain it.
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On the other hand, turning a complex situation into something overly simple is an even more common way of demonstrating ignorance of how the system works.
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What we're looking for isn't the number of countable variables. It's the clarity of thought. The coherence of the explanation. The ability to have that explanation hold water even if small inputs change. The explanation might be long, but it makes sense."

Trecho retirado de "Complicated problems rarely require magical explanations"

Um mundo mais fluido?

Reflectir sobre:

"Among the top 100 CPG brands, 90 experienced share declines, according to a 2015 study by Catalina, a leading digital and consumer loyalty firm. Take a moment to let that soak in …90% of the leading household goods brands are losing market share on consistently low-growth categories.
...
The erosion of consumer loyalty among the most esteemed brands represents a changed philosophy of buying. The standard for brand switching is no longer the failure of a brand to perform but rather its inability to seem like an entirely new and interesting option at every single purchase cycle.
...
Two thirds of consumers surveyed said that the number of companies or brands they consider when making purchase decisions has increased significantly compared with 10 years ago.
...
They recognize that establishing and maintaining ongoing connections between consumers and their brands is becoming less and less realistic. Instead, those companies must continue to transform their offerings to treat each and every purchase occasion as a victory and invest in innovation that meets a constant need for change. Lifetime consumer loyalty is no longer a valid goal in the world of CPG because as much as it suits manufacturers, it’s simply no longer meaningful to consumers."

Não, não creio que seja por causa do que Simonsen defende, "O papel da marca em Mongo". Acredito que é mais por causa do Estranhistão e do referido em "Conciliação possível?"

Trechos retirados de "The Death Of Brand Loyalty: Cultural Shifts Mean It's Gone Forever"

Curiosidade do dia

Enquanto o presidente se embala com as primeiras páginas, "Sarampo. PR pede que pais pensem na saúde dos filhos para Estado não recorrer a meios obrigatórios", os problemas de fundo continuam:

"Em 2013, morreram, por dia, 12 pessoas em Portugal, devido a infecções hospitalares. São os dados mais recentes e ainda reflectem a necessidade de melhorar a higienização nas unidades de saúde."

Recordo 2008.

Trecho retirado de "DGS quer profissionais de saúde a lavar mais as mãos" publicado em Maio de 2016. Lembra-se de alguma indignação com estes números?

Um punhado de pérolas (II)

Parte I.

"Embrace External Trends.
The outside world can push you into Day 2 if you won’t or can’t embrace powerful trends quickly. If you fight them, you’re probably fighting the future. Embrace them and you have a tailwind.[Moi ici: Abraçar a mudança em vez de lhe resistir]
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These big trends are not that hard to spot (they get talked and written about a lot), but they can be strangely hard for large organizations to embrace.
...
High-Velocity Decision Making...
First, never use a one-size-fits-all decision-making process. Many decisions are reversible, two-way doors. Those decisions can use a light-weight process. For those, so what if you’re wrong? I wrote about this in more detail in last year’s letter.
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Second, most decisions should probably be made with somewhere around 70% of the information you wish you had. If you wait for 90%, in most cases, you’re probably being slow. Plus, either way, you need to be good at quickly recognizing and correcting bad decisions. If you’re good at course correcting, being wrong may be less costly than you think, whereas being slow is going to be expensive for sure."

Isto não vai resultar

Coisas que confundem um anónimo da província, "Walmart vuelve a plantar cara a Amazon: negocia la compra de Bonobos por 300 millones".

Walmart é a rainha do low-price no retalho físico. Preocupada com o poder da Amazon no retalho online e para o contrariar ... começa a comprar marcas criadas de raíz para o comércio.

"El gigante estadounidense de supermercados se ha hecho en los últimos meses con los pure players ShoeBuy, Moosejaw y ModCloth para aumentar su presencia online"

Da Bonobos recordo "Bonobos: an America's Hottest Brands Case Study".

Este anónimo da província, com a deformação profissional de raramente deixar de pensar em estratégia, acha estranha esta conjugação de uma empresa com uma cultura de low price com estas marcas. Isto não vai resultar.

"the creation of more unique, modern pieces that appeal to different tastes"

O avanço de Mongo manifesta-se, concretiza-se nesta evolução das tendências: "Minimalism Is Dead. Hello, Maximalism":

"An increasingly global design culture is playing a role in the surge of maximalist design as well, driving the creation of more unique, modern pieces that appeal to different tastes.
...
“Design is often led by feeling,” Giulia Molteni, a spokesperson for the Italian brand Molteni&C, says. “And maximalist design invokes maximum senses. Bold color is not only for the eyes, it’s for the soul. Interesting materials and textures are not only felt, but also seen. Right now, our senses crave more, crave something different.”"

Que investimento?

"SHAREHOLDER VALUE CREATION is the outcome—not the driver—of effective business strategy, which should be aimed at profitably creating and retaining satisfied customers. But how can a business best do this? In this chapter, I will show how the actions of a firm at all levels can create value for shareholders and other stakeholders.[Moi ici: A nossa ideia de que há objectivos que devem ser encarados como consequências, a obliquidade]
...
how can a firm improve its ROIC? [Moi ici: Return on invested capital] Figure 4.1 suggests that the drivers of ROIC include actions that either increase the numerator (by improving operating margins) or decrease the denominator (by reducing the amount of investment required for a given level of business output). [Moi ici: Outra ideia que acarinhamos no nosso trabalho, a diferença entre o numerador e denominador] These measures themselves can be further deconstructed into a set of management actions that drive higher-level business results.
...

...
every business function can and should contribute to shareholder value enhancement. Business functions can do this by improving revenue growth, which is the primary domain of marketing and innovation, or through operational and capital efficiency, which is a shared responsibility throughout the organization. As such, every employee within an organization should clearly understand how the creation and retention of satisfied customers drives overall profits, revenue growth, and shareholder value, and how their actions contribute to this. If employees do not understand the value of their daily activities, they are probably working ineffectively, working for a company with a poorly communicated management strategy, or both."

Quantas empresas se preocupam com isto? Quantas empresas investem realmente em fazer com que os trabalhadores percebam o que é realmente importante?

Trechos e figura retirados de "If You're in a Dogfight, Become a Cat!: Strategies for Long-Term Growth"

Curiosidade do dia

"Não havendo melhores condições de crédito do que as que são oferecidas pelas verbas incluídas em rubricas do Orçamento do Estado, os que recorrem ao "swap" são os que foram expulsos pela porta da despesa pública - mas depois voltam a entrar pela janela da dívida pública. O que não se deixa entrar no Orçamento no presente e se encaminha para o crédito com "swap" tem como futuro a dívida, e ninguém o poderia ignorar quando tomou essa decisão."

Trecho retirado de "O presente tem futuro"

A minha abordagem preferida

Começar pelo fim:

"Scrapping the “present-forward” perspective, they no longer started with an assessment of its current products and contracts.
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Instead, they began the planning process by envisioning the company in the further-off year of 2030. Starting with a clean sheet of paper, they imagined how customer needs would be different due to geopolitical forces, defense budget crunches, and technological disruptions. The exercise was conducted with brutal honesty as to how its product pipeline would unfold and play in the newly envisioned “future state” of the world."

O anónimo da província há anos que recomenda isto: "future-back" approach to strategy"

Um punhado de pérolas (I)

"There are many ways to center a business. You can be competitor focused, you can be product focused, you can be technology focused, you can be business model focused, and there are more. But in my view, obsessive customer focus is by far the most protective of Day 1 vitality.
...
As companies get larger and more complex, there’s a tendency to manage to proxies. This comes in many shapes and sizes, and it’s dangerous, subtle, and very Day 2.
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A common example is process as proxy. Good process serves you so you can serve customers. But if you’re not watchful, the process can become the thing. This can happen very easily in large organizations. The process becomes the proxy for the result you want. You stop looking at outcomes and just make sure you’re doing the process right.
...
Another example: market research and customer surveys can become proxies for customers – something that’s especially dangerous when you’re inventing and designing products. “Fifty-five percent of beta testers report being satisfied with this feature. That is up from 47% in the first survey.” That’s hard to interpret and could unintentionally mislead.
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Good inventors and designers deeply understand their customer. They spend tremendous energy developing that intuition. They study and understand many anecdotes rather than only the averages you’ll find on surveys. They live with the design.
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I’m not against beta testing or surveys. But you, the product or service owner, must understand the customer, have a vision, and love the offering. Then, beta testing and research can help you find your blind spots. A remarkable customer experience starts with heart, intuition, curiosity, play, guts, taste. You won’t find any of it in a survey."

Trechos retirados de "2016 Letter to Shareholders"

Granel, fiambreiras e rouxinóis

Conciliação possível?

Em "The importance of purpose in a digital world" sublinhei estes trechos

"Purpose is not a marketing idea, it’s a company idea – and it drives the entire organisation. Essentially, it’s that unique identifier that answers why the brand exists and defines how the customer experiences the brand. Purpose touches on how a company operates and delivers its social impact and its shared values.
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We call organisations that have a clear sense of purpose ‘purpose-led organisations.’ These businesses don’t just pay lip service to a cute slogan, being purpose-led means making every effort to ensure that all decisions and actions taken by business leaders – be that with customers, employees, suppliers, partners, shareholders or the wider community – fully encapsulate and transmit its values.
...
With purpose, values, meaning and brand in alignment, that message must carry through every point of interaction with the outside world: websites, content, advertisements, even the helpdesk script.
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Businesses hit the sweet spot when those expressed values can, through association, say something positive about the customer. When customers get a strong sense that ‘your values are my values’, when they believe the company’s commitment to those shared values is genuine and that communicating that bond to their peer group says something desirable or favourable about them, or simply engenders a feeling of pride, that’s when the magic happens. It brings the brand to life.
...
I feel as if the shift toward purpose we’re now seeing is one of a number of examples lately that demonstrate an encouraging change in the way organisations relate to the public. Whether it’s businesses and their customers or governments and citizens, it’s the human element that’s now, happily, coming to the fore.
...
Purpose, in the context of business, is the realisation that companies have always sold more than what’s inside the packaging. My hope is that as western society proceeds on its collective journey toward knowing itself, we’ll see it transform into one that reflects who we are, what we want to be, and serves us in the ways that we really need."

E volto a sublinhar aquele:

"Businesses hit the sweet spot when those expressed values can, through association, say something positive about the customer. When customers get a strong sense that ‘your values are my values’"

Agora admitamos que isto tem um fundo de verdade (pessoalmente acredito que sim e escrevo-o aqui há vários anos) e acrescentemos o que Seth Godin escreveu em "We are all weird" e que sublinhámos em "Estranhistão... weirdistão".

Se a massa central homogénea de clientes está a desaparecer e a espalhar-se cada vez mais em grupos heterogéneos, como é que as empresas grandes vão conciliar a mensagem do artigo citado com a evolução da realidade? Como é que a mesma empresa vai conciliar trabalhar em simultâneo para diferentes grupos cada um com diferentes valores?

Pessoalmente não acredito que tal seja possível no longo prazo. Outra força a contribuir para o advento de Mongo e para uma paisagem de oferta muito mais diversa.

Curiosidade do dia

A propósito de "FMI: Empresas batoteiras prejudicam a produtividade" e deste trecho:

"É que quando as empresas fogem ao Fisco, permitem-se levar a cabo investimentos que não são tão produtivos, porque o custo do capital que aplicam é, artificialmente, mais baixo. É como se estas empresas estivessem a ser subsidiadas. Ora, se investem de forma menos exigente, também têm piores resultados e, na verdade, atrasam o crescimento da produtividade do país.
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Se, pelo contrário, forem obrigadas a pagar todos os impostos devidos, os incentivos são colocados nos investimentos certos. Se estas empresas acabarem por não sobreviver, então é porque não eram suficientemente produtivas, não criavam valor suficiente. Ao saírem de atividade, acabam por abrir espaço no mercado para que as outras, as cumpridoras e produtivas, ganhem quota."

Será que também podemos aplicar o mesmo racional às empresas que obtêm subsídios e apoios dos governos e dizer exactamente o mesmo?

"É que quando as empresas fogem ao Fisco, [Moi ici: Recebem apoios e subsídios] permitem-se levar a cabo investimentos que não são tão produtivos, porque o custo do capital que aplicam é, artificialmente, mais baixo. [Moi ici: Como não recordar as explorações agrícolas com dezenas de tractores] É como se estas empresas estivessem a ser subsidiadas. Ora, se investem de forma menos exigente, também têm piores resultados e, na verdade, atrasam o crescimento da produtividade do país."