domingo, novembro 06, 2016

Curiosidade do dia

"As the thinking goes, growth of gross domestic product (GDP), which measures the goods and services produced in an economy every year is essential to a country’s stability and prosperity.
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But some economists are now challenging that view, arguing that it makes more sense to focus on measures of well-being other than growth.
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Spence and others who agree with him aren’t saying that the economy should stop growing or even shrink (though there is a group of people who do believe that). What they are arguing is instead that it may be more healthy economically to accept a slower growth rate, but still a positive one, while prioritizing policies that address things like inequality and access to services. This idea is, admittedly, somewhat utopian, but giving it serious consideration can illuminate the shortcomings of the current growth-first approach.
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It’s not just that maximizing growth doesn’t necessarily help people, but also that rapid growth can itself come at a cost, such as when the pursuit of growth is used to push through policies that are expected increase the GDP but may have negative consequences for millions.[Moi ici: Como não esquecer a orgia despesista de 2009?]
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Indeed, GDP measures activity in the economy, but there’s no way to know whether that activity is actually good for society. Merely sitting in traffic can cause GDP to go up, since people need to buy all that gas, but it has no societal benefit whatsoever, and additionally has negative consequences, such as pollution and frustration, that don’t show up in GDP at all. The BP oil-rig explosion, which killed 11, and the subsequent spill, which leaked 3 million barrels of oil into the Gulf, actually lifted GDP, analysts said, because of the amount of money spent cleaning it up.[Moi ici: A janela partida de Bastiat revisitada]
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Economists decided a long time ago that they can’t explain growth,” he told me. “Lots of people thought they knew what causes growth, but nobody actually does.”"[Moi ici: Esqueceram-se de perguntar ao primeiro-ministro de Portugal]





Trechos retirados de "Does the Economy Really Need to Keep Growing Quite So Much?"

Para reflexão

"We used to have a few simple phases to existence: childhood, education, work, and retirement. Now, entirely new phases of adulthood have emerged.
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As people age more healthily and work longer, the 50s and 60s will emerge as creative new decades of renewal, mobility and wisdom. Aging societies may not be the sad and boring future everyone fears. They may be an innovative and promising reinvention of human potential.
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companies will want [Moi ici: Então, por que demoram tanto?] to integrate the consequences of much longer lives into all their products and services. There are huge new opportunities in analyzing and serving the needs of humans are discovering that life hold entirely new chapters. Moving away from quickly outdating stereotypes of aging, retirement, and recreation, to dynamic new images of re-creation and innovations in lifestyle choices is fertile territory. For example, the over-60s entrepreneur is the fastest-growing segment in the UK and people aged 55-64 started 23.4% of all new businesses in the U.S. in 2012, up from 14.3% in 1996."

Trechos retirados de "What Happens When Careers Last 20 Years Longer?"

Market-driven ou market-driving (parte I)

O artigo "From market-driving to market-driven - An analysis of Benetton’s strategy change and its implications for long-term performance" de Raffaele Filieri e publicado por Marketing Intelligence & Planning Vol. 33 No. 3, 2015 pp. 238-257, merece ser lido para quem quer perceber porque, para além da subida dos custos na Ásia, o reshoring está a ocorrer. O artigo leva também a pensar que as empresas de calçado portuguesas que operam como market-driven nos mercados de proximidade, terão de operar como market-driving quando querem exportar para a Ásia ou Estados Unidos.
"The double-dip recession, the growth of low cost retailers, and the capability to rapidly satisfy ever changing consumer fashion needs are three different but intertwined factors which are reshaping the map of competition in the fashion industry. Today’s fashion market place is highly competitive and companies need to constantly “refresh” product ranges within a store to adapt to volatile fashion trends. Market-driven companies such as Zara and H&M seem to master this capability to match customer requirements in real time by offering trendy items at affordable prices.
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define market-driven management as the activity of “learning, understanding, and responding to stakeholder perceptions and behaviours within a given market structure”. Market driven refers to a business orientation that is based on understanding and reacting to the preferences and behaviours of customers within a given market structure through conducting market research and delivering incremental innovations. This orientation is strongly linked with the acquisition of information and knowledge about customers and competitors, which enable the firm to generate product innovation and to sustain a competitive advantage. The firms’ responsiveness to market needs depends on the propensity to act based on the knowledge acquired from the market
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the market-driven orientation does not guarantee a sustainable competitive advantage
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argued that the market-driven approach leaves the organization open to the tyranny of the served market in which managers see the world only through their current customers’ eyes. ... suggest that being market oriented detracts from innovation. To this regard, Christensen and Bower stated: “firms lose their position of industry leadership […] because they listen too carefully to their customers”. The common theme among the criticisms is that businesses pay a penalty for being market oriented. Likewise, while a strong market orientation is indicative of a propensity to innovate, it is not necessarily indicative of successful innovation. In order to induce changes in the behaviours of customers and competitors, simply being receptive to current market trends through market sensing abilities is not sufficient to sustain innovation.
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It has been suggested that in order to achieve a superior business performance, firms need to actively influence the market rather than being only ready to react to it. To shape the market, scholars have found that a market-driving orientation is better able than a market-driven orientation to gain a sustainable advantage by changing the structure or composition of a market and/or behaviours of its players.
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Innovation is a pre-requisite for creating customers and this is consistent with the “forward sensing” approach, in which market sensing is aimed to acquire state of the art knowledge which allows firms not only to be responsive but also to generate new concepts and ideas that alter the market structure. ... state that over time even successful market-driving firms change, as they should, into market-driven firms."

The Mid-market (parte I)

"Does all this activity mean the mid-market is finally disappearing, or can operators in this segment of the market evolve to survive? We ask the experts... [Moi ici: Segue-se a resposta de Ray Algar]
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Mid-market clubs were very slow to respond when low-cost gyms entered the market and disrupted the status quo. Now, unless they can offer something more compelling, it will only be a matter of time before more of these generic health clubs start to close.
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In the last couple of years, we've seen a disproportionate number of mid-market independents close as membership stagnated, membership prices remained flat and insufficient funds were generated to reinvest into refreshing the experience.
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The low-cost and premium markets are both well defined, but historically the mid-market brands have deliberately been more generic. Neither one thing or the other.
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The remaining legacy brands need to take stock and now jettison things which no longer serve them, or their members, and rediscover their core excellence. Similar offerings may be good enough when there's significant geographic distance between clubs, but can be disastrous as the distance between health clubs shortens.
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Mid-market clubs need to become experts, and build a reputation, in an area they really care about."
Como não recuar a 2005 e ao primeiro artigo que li sobre o fim do middle-market com a polarização do mercado: The vanishing middle market,” The McKinsey Quarterly, 2005 Number 4.
 
Trechos retirados do número de Outubro da revista "Health Club Management"

Não é um "nice to have"

"Define What Your Strategy Is — And What It Isn’t.
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Good strategy is ultimately about choices: it is as much about what not to do, as what to do. Most organizations don’t lose their way due to a lack of ideas, but by frittering away their focus and attention among thousands of seemingly useful but ultimately draining pursuits. This comes from a lack of clarity around your reason for being in existence, and the inability to draw bold lines separating ‘what will keep us on track’ vs. ‘what will lead us astray’. Next time you help create a big idea, initiative or strategy, do your company a favour and write down what it is, and in even bigger letters, what it isn’t. This includes things that customers or the media may be clamouring for. The effort needed to say no to seemingly legitimate options enforces the strategic discipline of clarifying the unique value your organization brings to people and to the market."
Enquanto lia este trecho senti logo click das peças a encaixarem-se:
A importância de se concretizar o que não se é, para reduzir o perigo da deriva da opinião dos clientes que Alan Klement tão bem relacionou com as causas especiais de Deming e que referi em "Acerca da variabilidade dos clientes".
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Sistematizar o que não se é não é um mero "nice to have" é um verdadeiro must para nos guiar e evitar a deriva que desfoca e torra valor.


sábado, novembro 05, 2016

Curiosidade do dia

Mongo no ensino, também.
"He says he has been complaining to ministers for many years about skills shortages in engineering.
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"We are taking matters into our own hands," said Sir James, who added that he wants the project to develop into a fully fledged Dyson University, with its own degree-awarding powers.
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Students will be paid a salary while studying and will not have to pay tuition fees - and Sir James says a key benefit will be that students will be working on "live projects" alongside mentors and research staff."
Trechos retirados de "Inventor Sir James Dyson sets up college to tackle skills shortage"

"next time you're imprisoned in a tower"

"people were faster and more creative when they tackled the problem on behalf of others rather than for themselves.
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Polman and Emich build upon existing psychological research showing that when we think of situations or individuals that are distant – in space, time, or social connection – we think of them in the abstract. But when those things are close – near us physically, about to happen, or standing beside us – we think about them concretely.
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Over the years, social scientists have found that abstract thinking leads to greater creativity. That means that if we care about innovation we need to be more abstract and therefore more distant. But in our businesses and our lives, we often do the opposite. We intensify our focus rather than widen our view. We draw closer rather than step back.
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Think about that next time you're imprisoned in a tower. Actually, don't. Instead, have someone else think about it for you."
Trechos retirados "Daniel H Pink: employees are faster and more creative when solving other people's problems"

Para os registos

Li algures que o peso das exportações portuguesas no PIB representava pouco mais de 21% em 1985, ano anterior à adesão à CEE.
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Em 2008 as exportações representavam 31% do PIB.
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Ou seja, em 23 anos o peso das exportações no PIB cresceu cerca de 10 pontos percentuais.
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Agora, ao consultar o Boletim Económico do Banco de Portugal de Outubro último, verifico que o número em 2015 chegou aos 40,6%.
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Ou seja, em 7 anos o peso das exportações no PIB cresceu cerca de 10 pontos percentuais.
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Notável!!!
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Claro que aqueles 23 anos não deverão ter tido uma evolução linear, a primeira década do século XXI deve ter sido sempre a cair por causa do efeito China e da orgia do não-transaccionável.

"Strategy is Not a To Do List, It Drives a To Do List"

"“You stupid x?!x. These strategies are mutually exclusive. Executing both of them would put us out of business.  You don’t have a clue about what the purpose of marketing is because all you are doing is executing a series of tasks like they’re like a big To Do list. Without understanding why you’re doing them, you’re dangerous as the VP of Marketing, in fact you’re just a glorified head of marketing communications.”
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Strategy is Not a To Do List, It Drives a To Do List
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Once I understood the strategy, the To Do list became clear. It allowed me to prioritize what I did, when I did it and instantly understand what would be mutually exclusive."
Por isso é que a última actividade na sequência é: o que vamos fazer na próxima segunda-feira?


Recordar "Strategy is not a to do list"

Trechos retirados de "Strategy is Not a To Do List"

As marcas da Amazon

"The bottom line for brands is they can no longer view Amazon as solely a channel and need to acknowledge them as a competitor.""
A loja como concorrente das marcas dos fabricantes. É o cúmulo!!! E as marcas dos fabricantes que se queixavam do aperto nas margens, de repente, ficam sem prateleiras!
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Em mercados comoditizados as marcas dos fabricantes concentram-se tanto no seu umbigo, na eficiência, que deixam de ser marcas para os consumidores.
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A memória recua a 2007, a leituras na estação do Carregado, e faz-me ir buscar:
"Manufacturer brands seem to be moving in the wrong direction. While industries with higher advertising intensity tend to have lower private label share, companies are increasingly diverting money away from advertising to promotions.
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Diverting money from communicating with customers to retailer support is the beginning of a vicious cycle for manufacturer brands. As manufacturer brands spend less building their brands with end consumers, they lose brand equity with the ultimate arbiter in the marketplace. This increases the relative power of retailers and their negotiating power. As a result, manufacturer brands are subject to even greater concessions by retailers. In order to fund these concessions to retailers, manufacturer brands divert more money from consumer communications to retailers.
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As reseller equity goes up, to maintain balance, manufacturer brands have to spend more rather than less money communicating with customers."
No limite, o dono da prateleira interroga-se: por que devo dar margem a outros quando posso colocar à venda um produto tão bom ou melhor?
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Amazon a caminho de tornar-se uma espécie de Decathlon ou IKEA.


Trechos retirados de "Private Label Strategy

sexta-feira, novembro 04, 2016

Curiosidade do dia

"Para muitos especialistas, Portugal deve aproveitar para apostar em produtos onde já é muito  competitivo, nomeadamente, o vinho, o azeite e o queijo."
Uma pessoa fica logo elucidada acerca dos ditos "especialistas" quando:
  • a economia de Portugal é resumida à agro-indústria;
  • acham que somos competitivos no queijo (LOL);
Farto deste voluntarismo e desta ignorância.

Trecho retirado de "CETA. Uma lança para Portugal aumentar as vendas para o Canadá"

O mundo a mudar

Ontem ao final da tarde na minha caixa de correio electrónico caiu um convite para uma acção de demonstração:

Agora reparem no teor da demonstração:
"A KYAIA - Fortunato O. Frederico, Lda. implementou em consórcio com a FLOWMAT - Sistema Industriais, Lda., Silva & Ferreira Lda., Creative Systems, Lda., CEI - Companhia de Equipamentos Industriais, Lda, INESC TEC- Instituto de Engenharia de Sistemas e Computadores, Tecnologia e Ciência, FEUP - Faculdade de Engenharia da Universidade do Porto e CTCP - Centro Tecnológico do Calçado de Portugal o projeto de I&D HSSF - High Speed Shoe Factory.
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Este projeto teve como objetivo conceber, desenvolver e implementar um novo modelo de fábrica de calçado para resposta ágil em 24 horas, orientado para a produção unitária par a par, capaz de responder sem stocks, às vendas pela internet, às pequenas encomendas e reposições de produtos em loja e ao fabrico rápido das amostras."
O mundo a mudar, as tentativas para ir encontrando resposta, respostas que por sua vez permitem mais mudança num bailado de co-evolução.


"It was just what the 20th century was about: mass production"

 Daqui "Сhristos Passas (Zaha Hadid Architects): It is interesting to work in Russia, but the approval process is complicated here" sublinho este trecho que parece retirado aqui do blogue:
"we do not have any ready-made solutions. We do not believe in mass produced architecture. We believe in mass customization, making everything unique, not making everything the same. Of course, the idea of repetition has something to do with the mode of production we had at the beginning of the 20th century, with machines that would repetitively do the same job, so that you got standard, high-quality products — but it was the same from one to the other. It was just what the 20th century was about: mass production — and if you wanted to have something individualized, you could change the colour, or, say, the buttons.
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Christos Passas: “We do not believe in mass produced architecture. We believe in mass customization, making everything unique, not making everything the same
Nowadays, I think, the mode of production is changing. It is very important, because the machines we are using today for fabrication, for construction, are so agile that they can produce unique objects in every case."
Recordar:

"“Small brewers have been growing in market share since the late ’70s and early ’80s, but for a long time they were too tiny to pose any threat to the bigger brands,” he says. “Only in the past 10 years have they really made themselves known, with more than 20 percent of the market in dollar sales.” By volume, their share also is going up, with craft beers representing 12.2 percent of the U.S. market in 2015, he says, and they will likely hit a peak this year.
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Craft concoctions can do many things the big beers can’t, like offer greater variety, fuller flavor and snappier names (Pepperation H, Apocalypse Cow and Citra Ass Down) or humorous mottos appealing to locals and tourists, like Utah’s Polygamy Pale Ale (“Try one and you’ll want another, and another, and another...”). Watson says craft brewers also tend to be deeply involved with their communities and are highly philanthropic, bolstering brand loyalty in a way the monster beer makers cannot."

"Because if nobody hates it, nobody loves it"

O @armando_moreira chamou-me a atenção para um artigo de Ray Algar no número de Outubro da revista "Health Club Management". Escreverei amanhã sobre ele.
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Hoje, sublinho um trecho que capturou a minha atenção:
"Mobile devices will be used for sign-up and access, and membership is fully flexible: pay per use or pay on a weekly basis — and even with the latter, if you want to leave, you only have to give that week plus one more week's notice. It's designed to give power to the consumer. We're trying to create the ultimate, flexible, user-friendly fitness experience for this target market.
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It's a risk, because only about 800,000 people in Denmark belong to a health club — and of those 800,000, we're expecting a significant number will come into our gym and think it's the worst place they've ever been. In fact, if that isn't happening, we won't have done our job properly. Because if nobody hates it, nobody loves it.
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I come back to clothing. Obviously you can make something that will fit almost everybody and look OK on them — but it wouldn't make a statement Not about the person developing it, nor the person wearing it. We're definitely making a statement with our clubs."
Como não recordar:

Humanos e máquinas

"In his 2013 book, “Average Is Over,” Mr. Cowen briefly mentioned how two average human chess players, working with three regular computers, were able to beat both human chess champions and chess-playing supercomputers.
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It was a revelation for Mr. Work. You could “use the tactical ingenuity of the computer to improve the strategic ingenuity of the human,” he said."
Trecho retirado de "The Pentagon’s ‘Terminator Conundrum’: Robots That Could Kill on Their Own"

Conjugar com "Man and machine: The new collaborative workplace of the future":
"At Ford's factory in Cologne, Germany, a new kind of robot is sitting by the assembly line helping manufacture the legendary automaker's cars. But these collaborative robots, or co-bots, aren't replacing their human counterparts at this Ford Fiesta plant. Instead, they're working side by side with 4,000 Ford factory workers, and not for them.
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"It's not just the use of co-bots — it's the reduction of industrial robots," said Frank Tobe, a robotics expert and publisher of "The Robot Report." "The traditional caged robot at auto factories is becoming obsolete, because every car is different from every other car."
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Manufacturing precisely configured vehicles where customers choose details like the trim of the dash or the caps of tire valves is not a task for large industrial robots, which have trouble adapting to an age of mass customization in part because they constantly have to be reprogrammed."
Recordar:

quinta-feira, novembro 03, 2016

Curiosidade do dia

Recordo muitas vezes a palavra histerese quando penso no desemprego.
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Usava-a muito em Fenómenos de Transferência, sobretudo associada à adsorção.

Quando o fenómeno corre no sentido da adsorção tem um comportamento diferente de quando corre a dessorção.
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Por que penso agora em histerese?
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Por causa do desemprego e do salário mínimo.
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Ao longo da década de 90 do século passado tivemos uma evolução dos custos de mão-de-obra no sector do têxtil e vestuário que pode servir de avatar para o que se passou nos outros sectores da economia transaccionável:

À medida que o país adoptava um modelo mental que considerava os sectores tradicionais como obsoletos e incapazes de se ajustarem ao mundo novo, e os sectores não-transaccionáveis como a nova última Coca-Cola no meio do deserto, os salários iam subindo muito acima da produtividade e as fábricas iam fechando. Quem não se lembra da facilidade com que se dizia que se uma fábrica não consegue pagar o novo salário mínimo deve fechar.
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Nessa altura, mesmo que os salários não tivessem subido, mesmo que os salários tivessem baixado, o resultado final teria sido o mesmo, a única coisa que variaria seria a velocidade de destruição de emprego e das fábricas como resultado da adesão da China à Organização Mundial do Comércio (ver tabela acima). Como não recordar o choque de 18 de Fevereiro de 2008, foi o ponto onde começou o comeback.
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Depois da travessia do deserto, no início de 2008  escrevi aqui que o pior para os sectores transaccionáveis tinha passado. O sector do calçado é um exemplo paradigmático dessa evolução.

Quando a troika chegou, os políticos e os Sarumans do costume (a tríade) estavam sempre a falar do sector transaccionável, que era preciso baixar salários para o salvar: TRETA!
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Lembram-se de em 2012 andarem todos à nora com um famoso relatório sobre o desemprego? Esse relatório demonstrava, contra a ideia do mainstream que quanto mais um sector económico em Portugal estava aberto ao exterior menos desemprego tinha.
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Regressemos à actualidade. Esta semana escrevi esta "Curiosidade do dia" e hoje mesmo "Um peu partout". Entretanto, no Twitter aparecem muitas bocas acerca da evolução do desemprego e da subida do salário mínimo. Olhando para a força do reshoring em curso, tema que passa completamente ao lado de artigos como este "A Little-Noticed Fact About Trade: It’s No Longer Rising" e que se traduz em números como estes:
Podemos pensar que ainda poderíamos ter uma evolução melhor.
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No entanto, o ponto deste postal é outro: como está a evoluir o emprego nos sectores não-transaccionáveis? Interessante que agora no sector privado quem mais tem falado contra o aumento do salário mínimo seja a Confederação do Comércio e Serviços, precisamente o subsector privadoque mais subiu os salários durante a orgia despesista até à troika.
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Agora o massacre é e será nesta área por causa do comércio online, por causa da demografia, por causa do fraco poder de compra e porque a dinâmica de crescimento actual está nos sectores transaccionáveis. O perfil de criação de desemprego com o aumento do salário mínimo é diferente e é mais do que compensado pela dinâmica do reshoring.




Un peu partout

Um pouco por todo o lado sintomas do reshoring, desta vez até na anquilosada França:
"Ils sont jeunes, fins gestionnaires, passionnés surtout. Prêts à réveiller une vieille industrie qu'on croyait éteinte: la confection. Elle ne représente plus que 10.000 emplois sur les 57.000 de l'industrie textile française. Mais de plus en plus d'entrepreneurs décident de reprendre des ateliers. Grâce à eux, bien des marques de luxe, ou plus accessibles, proposent ou peuvent à nouveau propose un «made in France» de plus en plus en vogue."
Trechos retirados de "Ils réveillent le «mode in France»"

"43% of managers cannot state their own strategy"

Gostei muito deste artigo, "Make Strategic Thinking Part of Your Job":
"How can we implement strategic thinking if we’re not even sure what it looks like? [Moi ici: Tema demasiado importante para um consultor que trabalha a formulação e implementação de estratégias. Se os potenciais clientes não sabem o que é como vão procurar ajuda?]
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44% of managers spent most of their time firefighting in cultures that rewarded reactivity and discouraged thoughtfulness. Nearly all leaders (96%) claimed they lacked time for strategic thinking, again, because they were too busy putting out fires.[Moi ici: Como devem imaginar isto não são números acerca dos empresários portugueses]
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Unfortunately, for many executives, the connection between their role and the strategic contribution they should make is not so obvious.[Moi ici: OMG]
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Roger Martin’s research, which found that 43% of managers cannot state their own strategy. [Moi ici: OMG] Executives with less clarity must work harder to etch out the line of sight between their role and its impact on the organization’s direction. In some cases, shedding the collection of bad habits that have consumed how they embody their role will be their greatest challenge to embodying strategic thinking.
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One study found that only 14% of people understood their company’s strategy and only 24% felt the strategy was linked to their individual accountabilities. Most executives mistakenly assume that repeated explanations through dense PowerPoint presentations are what increases understanding and ownership of strategy.
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Sound strategic thinking doesn’t have to remain an abstract mystery only a few are able to realize. Despite the common complaint, it’s not the result of making time for it. Executives must extract themselves from day-to-day problems and do the work that aligns their job with the company’s strategy. [Moi ici: Não é fácil! O empresário com quem almocei ontem gosta é de estar a aprender técnica e a aplicá-la. Visitar clientes, interagir com eles é um sacrifício] They need to be armed with insights that predict where best to focus resources."

"This is called value‐based pricing" (parte II)

Parte I.
"Value‐based pricing results from value engineering. As a construct, it works from the premise that in order for the firm to serve customer needs profitably, it needs to understand what those customers need and what they will pay to have their needs met. That is, value‐based pricing seeks to identify the value an offering delivers from the customer’s perspective and then charge accordingly.[Moi ici: Como ontem conversava ao almoço com um empresário, não é cobrar mais porque se consegue dar a volta ao cliente, é cobrar mais porque o cliente reconhece mais valor]
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Value‐based pricing requires approaching pricing challenges through the lens of detecting and understanding value from the customer’s perspective. It requires gathering facts that can be constructed into meaningful information about what needs customers have, how an offer will impact those needs, and how valuable that impact is, all from the customer’s perspective.
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Value‐based pricing isn’t a specific technique or process, but rather a paradigm for managing exchanges between the firm and its customers. As a paradigm, it flows across the firm’s decision‐making process. It defines the context through which all pricing and strategic competitive positioning decisions are made.
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If value‐based pricing relies on understanding value from the customer’s perspective, then what is that value? That is, what value is relevant for pricing decisions?
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The total value a customer receives from a product is the difference between the total benefits the product or service delivers and the total price the customer must pay to receive that bundle of benefits.

the relevant meaning of value for customers is not an absolute, total value construct but a relative, differentia value construct.
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Differential value is the difference in value delivered to customers by choosing one firm’s offer compared to that delivered by choosing an alternative offer.

The concept of differential value, ΔV, covers both hard, calculable issues and softer, perceptual issues."

Trechos retirados de "Pricing Done Right"

Context Map Canvas

Quem trabalha com a ISO 9001:2015 vai sorrir ao reconhecer a parte da cláusula 4.1 sobre compreender o contexto de uma organização ao olhar para este "Context MapÒ Canvas"
Consultar: