quinta-feira, novembro 26, 2009

O deboche despesista (parte II)

Talvez estas vozes e o destino dos grandes dominós grego e espanhol venham impor o fim do deboche despesista em que os governos se têm envolvido.
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Talvez o Dubai também ajude à festa.
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A espiral despesista e irracional em que se envolveram os governos talvez desemboque na necessidade de uma guerra para desviar as atenções... este postal dá muito que pensar "Marc Faber Sees War Against an Invented Enemy and a Big Financial Bust":
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""I think eventually there will be a big bust and then the whole credit expansion will come to an end," Faber added.
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"Before that happens, governments will continue printing money which in time will lead to a very high inflation rate, and the economy will not respond to stimulus".
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In one of his Gloomiest predictions, Faber, referred to as Dr Doom, said "the average family will be hurt by that, and then in order to distract the attention of the people, the governments will go to war".
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"People ask me against whom? Well, they will invent an enemy," Faber said."
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"Faber: The years 2006 and 2007 were "the peak of prosperity" and the world economy is not likely to return soon to that level.
Mish: Agreed. I had quite some time ago proposed Peak Credit and her twin sister Peak Earnings have arrived. Here is a snip from the former. ... That final wave of consumer recklessness created the exact conditions required for its own destruction. The housing bubble orgy was the last hurrah. It is not coming back and there will be no bigger bubble to replace it. Consumers and banks have both been burnt, and attitudes have changed."
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BTW, aquelas palavras da Moody's: "A agência destaca que a situação orçamental portuguesa "estava já a deteriorar-se há algum tempo, ainda antes de a crise financeira começar". Além disso, a economia portuguesa "está presa numa dinâmica de baixo crescimento devido à fraca competitividade", o que faz com o Governo tenha de "tomar decisões difíceis se quiser reduzir a dívida""

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