quinta-feira, dezembro 03, 2009

E o pior já passou... passou mesmo? E o pior para quem? (parte II)

Dia após dia vou recolhendo mais e mais informação para compor os cenários do futuro, tendo em conta as limitações do espaço de Minkowsky.
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Mats Lindgren e Hans Bandhold no livro Scenario Planning escrevem:
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"Although scenario planning processes concern the future, it is important to have a clear picture of the present and the past. What is the history of the organization and how has it developed up to now? How has the competitive landscape developed and what have been the triggers for change? Which have been the main indicators of changes in the landscape so far?
You might object that the future landscape is extremely uncertain and that there are many new threats and possibilities. But there are a lot of driving forces in the surrounding world that remain the same. The logic of the arena is still there and even if you consider that your organization is very future-oriented, it is most probable that the changes are fairly slow and that you have competitors who are forerunners as well as followers."
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