O contexto sempre a mudar

"Now we are in a different time, where capital is more expensive, and near-term profitability more necessary. We still need to innovate our way through the challenges ahead, and the management playbook is fundamentally the same, but there are enough nuances to attend to that it is worth revisiting the topic end to end.

...

In a downturn, crossing the chasm—not winning inside the tornado—represents the fulfillment of the Incubation Zone’s real option mandate. You want to create a cash-flow-positive entity that protects your franchise from disruption by coopting an emerging technology while at the same time solving a mission-critical problem for a customer who needs immediate help. That is value, in and of itself, over and above the optionality it creates for future category creation."

Trechos retirados de "Reengineering the Incubation Zone- For a Downturn" 

Uma crua e dura realidade

 Há tempos estava a rever a análise do contexto de uma empresa, que vai ser apresentada na reunião de revisão do sistema, ao conversar com a responsável da qualidade gerou-se um diálogo que desembocou numa verdadeira reflexão sobre o futuro da empresa e do seu sector de actividade no país. Chegados aí, senti uma barreira a levantar-se.

Nunca a responsável da qualidade terá possibilidade de seguir essa via na sua empresa. Nunca a revisão do sistema entrará por caminhos que ponham em causa o status quo. Uma pena!

Por exemplo, por um lado a necessidade de "Apostar em ganhar novos clientes em gamas mais altas", por outro a dificuldade em o fazer (procurar novos tipos de clientes, em diferentes canais, com diferentes tipos de produtos) e ao mesmo tempo a pressão do contexto para o aumento dos custos, "António Costa pede "esforço" às empresas para melhorar os salários" e "Escassez de talento afeta 84% dos empregadores nacionais". E se é mesmo difícil subir na escala de valor como responder à evolução do contexto?

Como disseram Maliranta e Nassim Taleb:

"Systems don’t learn because people learn individually – that’s the myth of modernity. Systems learn at the collective level by the mechanism of selection: by eliminating those elements that reduce the fitness of the whole, provided these have skin in the game"

Uma crua e dura realidade quando se evita enfrentar o contexto. 

Chris Martin canta, "when you get what you want and not what you need". Isto é complicado!!!

Fugir do lero-lero

Que questões externas podem afectar a sua empresa em 2023?

Como auditor vejo, como diz um conhecido, "muita conversa para boi dormir", ou como se diz no Twitter, "muito lero-lero". Por isso, achei interessante este artigo, "The 10 Biggest Risks And Threats For Businesses In 2023".

Claro que o que o artigo relata não são riscos, são elementos do contexto externo que se podem concatenar com elementos do contexto interno e fazer emergir alguns riscos. Quando há uma tragédia há os que choram e há os que vendem lenços. O facto das taxas de juro subirem pode ser um risco para um certo tipo de empresas, mas também pode ser uma oportunidade para quem não tenha dívida e trabalhe para um certo tipo de clientes.

"“The raised interest rates will continue to burn working capital for businesses across the economy,” Salvatore Stile, chairman of Alba Wheels Up International, an international shipping and customs clearance company, said via email.

“Because retailers are concerned with consumer demand, they will likely be more cautious in purchasing inventory to prevent over-supply in the retail market,” he predicted.

“This will burden small and medium-sized companies, who will have to be de facto warehouses for the retailers, as they hold products for more extended periods. We expect freight rates to reduce in 2023 when compared to 2022, as demand for overseas goods has reduced across the board,” Stile observed."

Que questões externas determinou? São do mesmo calibre que as relatadas no artigo? Ou são a treta do costume? Louvar o chefe, louvar a equipa, ao estilo miss mundo, dizer que a concorrência é maldosa, dizer que os fornecedores são malandros, e que o governo é a fonte de todos os males.

Como as traduziu em riscos ou oportunidades?

 

É win-win, mas têm de deixar de olhar para dentro do polimerizador

No livro, "Deliver What You Promise" de Bali Padda, antigo COO da Lego, encontro no prefácio o seguinte diálogo:

"- The first priority is to be flexible.

- No, the first priority is to be reliable. Deliver what we promise. Reliability first, flexibility second."

As empresas certificadas de acordo com a ISO 9001 têm uma cláusula que devem aplicar, a cláusula 4.1 sobre a análise do contexto. A maior parte das empresas segue um ritual ôco, estilo cerimónias do 5 de Outubro, anualmente repetem um exercício de análise do contexto que se limita a bajular a direcção e a equipa de gestão, e a demonstrar como o Titanic vai bem e recomenda-se. Mantêm 95% dos factores que o consultor plantou no sistema aquanda da implementação do sistema e siga. Serve para calar auditores da entidade certificadora.

A minha sugestão para os responsáveis de sistemas de gestão da qualidade, do ambiente, da segurança, da segurança da informação, ... passa por na próxima análise do contexto levarem um recorte da entrevista de António Saraiva ao Público de ontem:

"Acha que pode haver um racionamento de energia neste Inverno para famílias e empresas em Portugal?

Não há uma maneira boa de dar uma má noticia e não quero ser profeta da desgraça ou de más noticias catastrofistas. Mas temos que ter alguma fé [Moi ici: Hope is not a strategy!! Hope is not a good plan!!!] que vamos ter chuva em maior quantidade do que tivemos nestes últimos dois anos. Estamos, como sabemos, com a maior seca dos últimos 500. 

... 

Enfim, vamos ter esperança de que vai chover mais, porque, se assim não for, vamos ter que tomar, nós, país, algumas medidas de criar reservas com algumas reduções inteligentes de consumo. " [Moi ici: Que linguagem rebuscada para dizer algo sem ser entendido pela populaça!!!] 

E levarem um recorte da primeira página do Jornal de Negócios de ontem:

E pensem nas primeiras linhas da cláusula 6.1.1 da ISO 9001: juntar a possibilidade de apagões na rede eléctrica no próximo Inverno (cláusula 4.1), com os requisitos das partes interessadas (clientes e accionistas, cláusula 4.2), para fazer emergir o risco de não conseguir satisfazer as encomendas por falta de energia.

Vai acontecer? Não sei!

Não vai acontecer? Não sei!

O ponto não é adivinhar o futuro, o ponto é preparar a empresa para a eventualidade de acontecer se o risco for elevado. Quem se prepara com antecedência consegue coisas que quem anda com as calças na mão não consegue. Por exemplo, pessoa mal-formada, mas com olho para os negócios de ocasião, em Janeiro de 2020 comprou uma porrada de máscaras cirúrgicas quando ninguém as queria. Em Abril de 2020 vendeu-as com um bom lucro.

A gestão de topo não liga ao responsável do sistema de gestão? Não há problema, façam um relatório, exponham os riscos e perigos da situação e proponham soluções para minimizar a potencial ocorrência. Se ninguém ligar e nada acontecer, não passa nada.

Se ninguém ligar e acontecer, ganham crédito para o futuro.

Se ligarem e não acontecer, foi uma questão de prudência e fizeram bem em chamar a atenção.

Se ligarem e acontecer, ganham crédito para o futuro.

É win-win. Têm é de "deixar de olhar para dentro do polimerizador" e alargar o papel do gestor do sistem de gestão.

"What Kind of Leaders Do We Need Now?"

 

"The war in Ukraine, however, has radically altered the geopolitical situation—with profound implications for business leaders. Many have had to decide whether to stop doing business in Russia [Moi ici: E não esquecer a China] —a choice that involves moral, economic, and political considerations that some CEOs feel ill-prepared to weigh. The combination of geopolitical strife and the pandemic has caused leaders to reevaluate their geographic footprints and supply chains. Many sense that the era of expansive globalization may be over, and they are exploring opportunities to localize their businesses to make them more resilient to international turmoil.

...

What Kind of Leaders Do We Need Now?

The new zeitgeist will require executives with the instincts to deal with shifting external forces, the ability to sense fresh economic opportunities, and the skills to lead and manage in a different age.

...

Avoiding land mines starts with anticipating how different stakeholders will react to events unfolding inside and outside the company. And that requires leaders to first broaden their thinking about what’s relevant to their business. There was a time when a CEO could say, “But what does this have to do with my company? Isn’t this matter in the personal or political sphere?” Such a perspective is unlikely to serve any executive well in the times ahead. Rather than resist, CEOs will have to embrace the broader responsibility into which they and their organizations will be drawn. They’ll need to empathize with people whose identities and interests may differ from their own. Gathering a wide range of views and listening carefully—even to thoughts and perspectives that may seem outlandish—will enable CEOs to be more in tune with those they lead.

...

The new zeitgeist will also require a greater emphasis on crisis management skills. Leaders can no longer assume that trouble may strike once every three or four years and be managed by outside crisis consultants. Instead, companies must prepare for a steady stream of upheavals—and hone their in-house skills for dealing with them. They can’t afford to merely react; they should anticipate, plan, and organize for potential challenges."

Trechos retirados de "As the World Shifts, So Should Leaders"

"há anos em que décadas acontecem" (parte III)

Parte I e parte II.

Vivemos tempos em que padrões gerados ao longo de décadas parece estarem a ser rebentados no espaço de alguns meses.

Recomendo a leitura deste texto "Assumptions we need to question now":

"1. BRICS would be exciting sources of global growth

...

While the end of the BRICS dominance has been clear for a while (Goldman Sachs shut down its BRICS fund in 2015), any lingering faith in the idea is gone for good.

2. Energy costs would remain fairly stable

Back in 2020 (who would think we’d have a reason to look fondly at 2020???) pundits were predicting fairly stable, even somewhat lower, energy costs.

...

3. Inflation? That’s so 1970’s

...

Under inflation, cash is king and every mistake gets magnified. 

...

4. Cyber-attacks affect other people

...

5. “I’m not influenced by Russian-originated disinformation”

...

6. Infrastructure will be there and connectivity will be ongoing

It is one of the big negatives of the digital revolution – once you’ve created digital systems, which are marvels in many ways – you are increasingly dependent on them. Digital systems also lead to complexity with the consequence that they behave in far more unpredictable ways. So what is your plan B if some vital piece of infrastructure (water, energy, transport) gets disrupted or hijacked? How will you communicate when the cell towers are down? What will you do when the power goes out for an extended period?

7. Highly optimized supply chains will behave as planned

...

As well, how any little glitch anywhere along the complex sets of interactions that bring goods to our doorsteps can throw the whole system into disarray. The problem was already bad before the invasion; it isn’t about to get a whole lot better with disruptions of airspace and communication. ...

8. Politics are politics and commerce is commerce

... 

9. Countries that trade together don’t go to war

This is an assumption that’s been with us for an enormously long time and has been used to justify the creation of commercial connections, often following conflicts. ...

10. Liberal democracy is the norm"

Rapidez, flexibilidade, lidar com a incerteza

What comes after Putin (and when) is unpredictable but the West should prepare for a long-term confrontation. The struggle will continue. Luckily Europeans are waking up to the reality that we need force to defend our values and norms. 6/

— Kristi Raik (@KristiRaik) April 22, 2022

Mal li aquele trecho "West should prepare for a long-term confrontation" voltei mentalmente aos tempos da Guerra Fria. Depois, pensei nas implicações para o comércio internacional. Recordo alguns postais recentes:

• Pergunta sincera, pergunta honesta
• O risco de voltar a trabalhar com a China (parte IV) 

As regras do jogo económico estão a ser revistas e algo diferente vai emergir da confusão. Entretanto, julgo que esta previsão que se segue não andará longe do que veremos:

"In a digitally transformed economy, CP enterprises are normally better off spending money to save time than to spend time to save money. The shorter the offering’s life cycle, the more this is the case. To do this, they need to get better at the kind of “moderate-risk-low-data” decision-making that is at the core of the Agile operating model, and not just at the fuzzy front end of innovation, but all the way along the line as they systematically scale the offer. This is possible because digitally enabled supply and delivery chains can detect market signals far faster than in prior eras, but only if a) they are deployed, and b) they are employed. A culture that has a low tolerance for risk or failure is a much greater liability today than in the past.

...

but as time displaces money as the scarcest ingredient in the economic equation, agile must come to the fore. To help the culture embrace this principle, enterprises need to make “time data” much more visible in their OKRs, dashboards, monthly reports, and quarterly reviews. Latency is the cholesterol that hardens our operational arteries, so taking time out of our processes as opposed to taking money out needs to be our first (although not our only) priority."

Quantos empresários vão conseguir mudar de mindset? Deixar de lado algoritmos familiares, mas desactualizados, e abraçar outros que têm de ser construídos durante o decorrer do jogo, não é tarefa para qualquer um.

Trechos retirados de "Next-Generation Best Practices for Consumer Product Companies" 

"há anos em que décadas acontecem" (parte II)

Ao escrever a Parte I cheguei a fazer esta figura que acabei por não incluir no postal:

Um esquema que ilustra o impacte do contexto externo sobre o desempenho das empresas exportadoras portuguesas.

Ontem ao fazer a minha caminhada matinal ao longo do rio Tinto em Rio Tinto sublinhei:

“Colonel John R. Boyd said, “He who can handle the quickest rate of change survives,” in which “quick” does not refer to speed but the amount of time that elapses in transitioning the system from one state to another. Hence, when competitors experience similar challenges, fast transients should be conducted asymmetrically, so as to complete a transition from one state to the next in less time than anyone else. Also, Boyd favored abrupt, fast transients that come as a surprise. Consequently, the antidote to uncertainty is adaptability—not certainty.”

Trecho retirado de "The Root Cause: Rethink Your Approach to Solving Stubborn Enterprise-Wide Problems" de Hans Norden

Quantas empresas?

Como não recordar o velho ditado deste blogue, "Volume is vanity, profit is sanity". Como não recuar a 2007 e a Correr, correr, correr, só para não sair do sítio... 

"BERLIN, April 6 (Reuters) German carmaker Volkswagen will axe many combustion engine models by the end of the decade and sell fewer cars overall to concentrate on producing more profitable premium vehicles, its finance chief was quoted as saying on Wednesday.

"The key target is not growth, Arno Antlitz told the Financial Times newspaper. "We are (more focused) on quality and on margins, rather than on volume and market share."

Antlitz said VW would reduce its range of petrol and diesel cars, consisting of at least 100 models spread across several brands, by 60% in Europe over the next eight years.

The paper said VW's new strategy was a sign of profound changes in the auto sector, which has attempted for decades to increase profits by selling more cars each year, even if that required heavy discounting.

Former VW chief executive Martin Winterkorn, who resigned in the wake of a diesel emissions scandal, had made it his goal to beat Toyota and General Motors to the title of "volume number one" by 2018."

Trechos retirados de "VW to scrap models and focus on premium market -CFO tells FT" 

Quando esta semana li a notícia, num jornal português que não consigo precisar, pensei logo nas muitas análises de contexto que vejo nas empresas.

Por causa da ISO 9001 as organizações fazem, ou supostamente fazem, análises de contexto. Listam factores internos e externos mas depois ... o que fazem com isso? Nada, ou quase nada, ou folclore para auditor.

Quantas empresas certificadas e envolvidas no universo de fornecedores da VW vão reflectir sobre isto? E recuo a 2009 e a Perspectivar o futuro:

"As equipas de gestão dedicam, em média, menos de 1 hora por mês a discutir a sua estratégia!!!

Os autores não falam sobre as equipas de gestão do nosso país, referem-se aos Estados Unidos.

Pois bem, ontem descobri mais uma citação do mesmo calibre, desta vez atribuída a Hamel:

“On average senior managers devote less than 3 percent ... of their time to building a corporate perspective on their future.” [Hamel 1995] Hamel goes on to point out that some companies devote even less, and suggests that such efforts are far too little to generate helpful projections about the future.”"

Que pode um auditor dizer quando vê uma análise de contexto feita de forma infantil ou de forma negligente? Recordo Deming: "Survival is not mandatory" e também "It Isn’t Illegal to Be Stupid" (parte V).

Recordo Por que não fazer o exercício agora? e o muito recente O risco da complacência.

O risco da complacência

Este artigo, "Leading Change Means Changing How You Lead", começa assim:

"To develop effective strategy amid constant change, leaders must hone their ability to determine which changes will boost their organization's competitiveness. This series examines data from companies worldwide to provide practical insights for business leaders seeking advantage as they navigate complexity and change."

Para já concentro-me na situação das organizações bem sucedidas que não se apercebem da mudança e das suas implicações:

"When a business is performing well on fit to purpose and relative advantage, the leader needs to recognize the twin dangers of complacency (believing that there's no need for change) and hubris (overconfidence in the quality of one's leadership). Contextually effective leaders combat complacency by continually striving for change, and they combat hubris by recognizing that their own opinion is less significant than the opinions of key stakeholders."

E recuei a 2007/2008 e a um caso ... desenhei um cenário sobre um futuro que me parecia claro. O cenário foi desprezado e eu vi o projecto terminado. Menos de 28 meses depois grande parte do cenário concretizou-se e a organização viu o seu mundo desabar, literalmente. 

Previsões e cenários

Ontem escrevi sobre o contexto e o futuro no Linkedin. Depois li "Business Forecasts Are Reliably Wrong — Yet Still Valuable". Alguns apontamentos:

"We suggest the following six ways in which business leaders can use fallible forecasts to gain actionable insights.

1. Look at many forecasts, not one.

Studies show that an expert’s individual judgement is often no better than a random guess, whereas combining multiple, independent judgments is more likely to yield an accurate answer. Looking at forecasts in aggregate can reveal the wisdom of the crowd.

2. Look at underlying variables. [Moi ici: Recordar 

Com vinte e muitos meses de antecedência, Outra previsão acertada, 27 meses depois,   

assistia do seu acampamento, amedrontado, acobardado, aos desafios arrogantes do gigante Golias e... ]

Even where there is a spread of forecasts, the collection of forecasts can signal a common set of critical variables or underlying trends.

3. Look at areas of convergence and divergence.

Forecasts with high convergence could be viewed as more likely potential futures for placing conservative bets. Alternatively, diverging forecasts could be seen as alternative potential futures for placing maverick bets, given the outsized value of anticipating or precipitating futures others do not foresee.

4. Look for white space.

Which topics are notably absent from public discourse? [Moi ici: Acho esta particularmente relevante para Portugal. Parece sempre vigorar uma Omertà entre um certo poder e os meios de comunicação social, para não tocar em certos temas] Identifying these can enable you to find white spaces where early-mover advantages are possible, and where you are more likely to have the power to shape future opportunities to your advantage.

5. Look at how predicted trends may shape the nature of competitive advantage.

Often forecasts stop at predicting what will happen. Go one step further to consider the implied impact on how companies will compete. Think about how your company could secure advantage and ways to adapt your strategy to match.

6. Assess your organization’s future readiness.

Consider your organization’s preparedness and resilience for different future scenarios based on the forecasts — considering those with high impact, even if their probabilities are low. Areas of divergence can help identify the scenarios you should be constructing.

Forecasts are oft misunderstood and underutilized, but they can be a powerful tool when approached critically and thoughtfully. Executives who identify the hidden truths within false forecasts may gain a better understanding of the present and perceive early indicators of the future, giving them a leg up in gaining and maintain competitive advantage."

O contexto é sempre importante!

O contexto é sempre importante!

No entanto, os últimos 18 meses fizeram do contexto um tema quente: covid19, confinamentos, economias congeladas, disrupção de cadeias de abastecimento, bloqueio do canal de Suez, aumento dos custos das matérias-primas, escassez de matérias-primas, aumento dos custos de energia, ...

Este artigo da Bloomberg Business Week é sintomático, "Paintmakers Are Running Out of the Color Blue":

• "Dutch paint maker Akzo Nobel NV is running out of ingredients to make some shades of blue"
• "Akzo Nobel is having trouble sourcing the tinplate used to make metal cans, forcing the Amsterdam-based company to ship empty pots from one country to another for filling"
• "It also called a force majeure on deliveries of some exterior wall paints because an additive needed to make them waterproof is unavailable."

Este outro, "Americans Are Quitting Jobs at Record Rates: Labor Department", remete para o contexto interno. Nos últimos meses uma constante, empresas que se queixam de perderem trabalhadores que decidem emigrar.

Mais fontes:

• How did we get here? Why supply chains are so wrecked
• Fabricar juguetes es hasta un 40% más caro y los precios subirán esta Navidad
• Vinyl Is Selling So Well That It’s Getting Hard to Sell Vinyl
• A tempestade perfeita: sem matérias-primas, sem energia e sem contentores

Contexto da moda

"El Covid-19 se come un 26% de las ventas del comercio de moda en 2020":

"[Moi ici: Números para os Estados Unidos] La moda fue el sector que peor evolucionó en el último año, seguida de cerca por los bares y restaurantes. [Moi ici: Não tinha essa percepção] La facturación del conjunto del retail se incrementó un 0,6% gracias a la alimentación.

...

La moda cierra un año para olvidar. En Estados Unidos, donde nunca llegó a decretarse un confinamiento a escala nacional, las tiendas especializadas en ropa y complementos redujeron su facturación un 26,4% en 2020, según el avance publicado hoy por el US Census Bureau.

En su conjunto, el retail y los servicios de alimentación incrementaron su facturación un 0,6% en el último año, gracias al empujón de las tiendas de alimentación, que crecieron un 11,5%, y a las de materiales de construcción y jardinería, con un incremento del 14%.

...

También se dispararon a doble dígito las ventas en los que el US Census Bureau denomina nonstore retailers, es decir, distribuidores que venden por catálogo o a través de Internet. Este tipo de comercios se incrementaron un 22,1%, hasta 971.554 millones de euros.

Sólo en diciembre, las ventas de moda se hundieron un 16% respecto al mismo mes del año anterior, mientras otros comercios como los de materiales de construcción se dispararon a doble dígito."

Quantos riscos e oportunidades reais consegue determinar?

Muitas empresas, ao implementarem um sistema de gestão da qualidade, pedem a um consultor para lhes listar um conjunto de factores externos relativos ao seu contexto. Infelizmente, muitas nunca mergulham numa reflexão sobre quais são, o que representam e como devem ser utilizados. 

Ao ler a introdução a este artigo "The Current State of Substrates in 2021":

"The value, demand and dependency for soilless substrates (growing media) has never been greater. NEVER. Last year brought unprecedented challenges as well as many opportunities to the horticulture industry worldwide. These challenges and opportunities set the stage for what should be a very interesting 2021 for all sectors of the industry. Factors affecting the current and future status of soilless substrates include the COVID-19 pandemic, political trade wars, extreme weather patterns and climate change, existing and proposed environmental regulations, and product and consumer trends."

Quantos riscos e oportunidades reais consegue determinar para a sua empresa, com base em cada um dos factores sublinhados?

 

"analyzing pertinent data and helping inform employee decision-making"

Que dados são usados pela sua empresa para tomar decisões?

Que esforços são feitos para assegurar a qualidade desses dados?

Com que frequência são analisados?

"many leaders use past exceptions as justification to ignore the cost of failure. Reasons for this may vary — from a distrust of analytics to a desire to succeed with a bold, unconventional move — but it can prove costly in the long-run.
.
An illustration of this is professional gambling. Casinos thrive because many bettors believe they are smarter than the odds, and that they can beat the house with bold betting. These are the gamblers who drive the majority of casinos’ profits.
...
When relying on prior experience, consider that memory is inconsistent and fallible. We are more likely to recall extremely unexpected events, rather than more mundane occurrences, thanks to “flashbulb memory.”
...
In a business context, flashbulb memory causes people to remember exceptional results, rather than expected outcomes. For example, an executive may vividly remember taking a chance on an unconventional hire and watching that employee grow into a star performer. They are less likely to remember when they made a safer bet on an obviously qualified candidate who turned out to be exactly as competent as expected, or the risky hires that did not work out. The exception becomes the legend.
...
There’s a huge difference between understanding the importance of data and making it a priority in your organization. Every business needs experts responsible for analyzing pertinent data and helping inform employee decision-making.
...
Instinct still has a place in business, but it should not be the only driver of decision-making. By making data and BI a focal point of your team’s strategic thinking, and using it to craft smart organizational policies, leaders can safeguard their businesses against unnecessary failure, and ensure that the company makes more good decisions than bad."

Trechos retirados de "Are You Using Your Data, or Just Collecting It?"

Sensemaking, punctuated equilibrium, sudden shifts, radical change

 It is interesting to realize that in these last days we are finding more and more articles about context analysis and making sense of the surronding environment. Yesterday found this one, "The Overlooked Key to Leading Through Chaos". 

"Ask executives to list traits of great leaders and they will probably name vision, honesty, or the ability to execute change. Rarely mentioned is one critical capability that leaders need most in turbulent times: sensemaking, the ability to create and update maps of a complex environment in order to act more effectively in it. 

Sensemaking involves pulling together disparate views to create a plausible understanding of the complexity around us and then testing that understanding to refine it or, if necessary, abandon it and start over.

...

Leaders need to know what’s happening around them in order to drive organizations forward. Today this task is harder than ever, given the ever-increasing rate of change in technology, business models, and consumer tastes — and it is now further complicated by the global pandemic and its related economic and political aftershocks.

...

Rather than immediately jumping to solutions, we must start with collecting data and scrutinizing it for trends and patterns that point to better solutions; rather than ignoring warning signs of failure, we should learn from others what those warning signs might be. This is not the time to do less sensemaking — it is the time to supercharge your organization’s ability to do more."

Certainly a symptom that the world in which organizations operate is in one of those phases of the punctuated equilibrium where everything undergoes sudden shifts leading to radical change.

 Other recent posts on the subject:

• Sense, organize, capture and renew
• Covid 19 and context analysis in ISO 9001, and
• "Toto, I've a feeling we're not in Kansas anymore"

Sense, organize, capture and renew

"First, develop a comprehensive set of processes to actively sense new insights (whether internal or external) that could affect the business, and hence identify threats or opportunities [Moi ici: Attention, threats and opportunities are not intrinsec qualities of context issues, they are a function of the current strategy. Covid 19 is a threat or an opportunity? It depends] as early as possible. Second, organize in response to those threats or opportunities; this is likely to involve reallocating resources, revamping processes, filling capability gaps, and aligning the company’s structure and governance. Third, capture value by revising business models and restructuring relationships with other players in various ecosystems. And fourth, renew the organizational capabilities needed to create and capture value by continuing to monitor and assess results and making small adjustments over time — while also preparing for the major disruptions that require a more comprehensive overhaul."

A text taken from "Plotting Strategy in a Dynamic World". A text in line with:

• Covid 19 and context analysis in ISO 9001, and
• "Toto, I've a feeling we're not in Kansas anymore"

Covid 19 and context analysis in ISO 9001

This week I was asked a question by email about ISO 9001:

"Do you think we should consider covid 19 as an external factor?"

Of course yes!!! Which organization was not affected by Covid 19?

It is an event with implications for all organizations. For some it creates risks, but for others it creates opportunities. It changes the external context, modifying both the level of demand, the channels used, and the value proposition for new and different groups of customers, but it can also change the internal context with teleworking and preventive measures on the production lines or during service provision.

As an auditor, I look forward to seeing Covid 19 in the context analysis update.

Today I found this article on the FT, "How coronavirus changed gardening forever". A good example of Covid 19 as an opportunity increasing demand. but also bringing new and different customers looking for different value propositions:

"In early March, when Covid-19 began to take hold of the globe, something changed in the world of gardening.
...
On March 16, the British government ordered people to avoid pubs, restaurants and non-essential travel. That morning, David Robinson, Managing Director of Suttons Seeds in Paignton, Devon, settled in for his usual Monday ritual of checking weekend sales numbers. He had a shock. “I said, ‘I think we have a problem with the sales numbers, it looks like they’ve been double or tripled.“”
.
Converted gardener Sonja Ruetzel: “I was feeling anxious during the lockdown, and gardening makes it look like you have an area where you have a little bit of control”
.
But the numbers were right: suddenly millions more people went online to find out what they could develop. In the weeks that followed, Suttons experienced days when sales were 20 times higher than the same day a year earlier – with lettuce, beetroot and cilantro seeds being the bestsellers.
...
Sowing a seed or renovating an overgrown garden was a balm to the pain of foreclosure, offering hope for some foods that didn’t have to come from an overcrowded and under-supplied supermarket, and the opportunity to improve and to embellish the little pockets of greenery around us.
...
Food culture YouTuber Charles Dowding has seen a huge spike in popularity, with 2.8 million views between March 24 and April 23 and 37,000 new subscribers. The Candide gardening app saw an average increase in the number of new members of 50% compared to the same period last year.
...
This wave of new gardeners is already bringing change to an industry that is slow to embrace a new audience. Garden designer and TV presenter Diarmuid Gavin started a daily live gardening conversation on Instagram during the lockdown that caught the attention of TV production companies, and he ended up doing a six-part TV show. titled Gardening together who tapped his mind to taste.
.
“There is a whole new breed of gardener who is so enthusiastic and hungry for information,” he says. “It’s less about the tricks of journalism and more about listening directly to people trying their hand at themselves.”
.
Will this shift to gardening last or is it a short-lived phenomenon caused by unique circumstances? Everyone I interviewed is optimistic that many of the newcomers will persist.
.
As Gavin says, “What we’ve heard from garden centers, compost makers and seed growers is that these new customers are coming back and coming back. They really want to know how to do it right. They are really invested because it means something to them. Once they have grown a spud, they will never stop. “"

Acerca do futuro - condimentos

Um convite à leitura para alimentar a reflexão sobre o futuro das PMEs:

"Asymetry - Inequality between nations will grow as the choices leaders make in navigating the crisis and the varying severity of its impact extend the differentiation between countries and regions emerging from the pandemic. Disparity within nations also will increase as small businesses fail, unemployment rises, and those at the bottom of the wealth pyramid suffer disproportionately, as typically happens during recessions. Existing regional disparities between thriving areas and those starved of capital will be exacerbated, as resources available for investment decline. On the demographic level, three groups of people were at risk before COVID-19: the soon-to-retire who were already under-resourced, young people about to enter a weakened job market, and midcareer workers with financial obligations who couldn’t afford to lose a job. To these cohorts, we add a fourth: those who were just barely managing, who will now be pushed off a cliff as they cannot pay for housing, food, or other basic requirements of life.
...
Disruption - The power and influence of the big tech companies and other organizations with platform business models will likely grow. ... bursts of automation in industry tend to happen as employees become relatively more expensive during big revenue drops.
...
Age. The challenges that aging populations pose to some sectors — such as inadequate healthcare systems — have accelerated and are now at the heart of the crisis. The pandemic will have a differential effect on distinct age groups, changing the outlook for many people’s lives.
...
Polarization. The world started fracturing long before the pandemic struck, as citizens’ faith in institutions and leaders was breaking down, disparities were growing, sharp divisions led to a failure to communicate effectively across divides, and multilateral institutions labored to maintain traction. COVID-19 has only intensified these trends.
...
Trust. Trust in government, civil society, business, and the institutions that make our societies work had already declined dramatically, especially among those not in advantaged positions.
...
small businesses will be even more significantly affected than larger ones by the policy decisions made. The impact will vary across countries because of the very different ways governments are responding to the crisis."

Não há respostas únicas.

E não é o que nos acontece que conta. É o que fazemos com o que nos acontece.

Textos e imagem retirada de "Adapting to a new world"

Sinal dos tempos

Esta manhã fui surpreendido por esta pequena nota, no canto inferior direito de uma página do Público de hoje.

Interessante como uma private equity firm, ainda ontem li isto, se entretenha a comprar empresas de formação à distância.

Basta associar: pandemia, poder dos governos, dinheiro dos governos para fazer de conta que se preparam pessoas, experiência de teletrabalho ou reuniões à distância.

Claro que a minha mente retorcida imagina logo cenas ...