Validar conteúdos - negócio de futuro

Ontem ao ver este tweet:

Pensei logo neste artigo "Is content validation the next growth industry?".

Mas atenção, isto não é exclusivo das redes sociais. Recordo sempre: "O FMI já não vem".

"manage value in order to make a profit " parte II

Parte I.

Esta parte II serve só para reforçar uma mensagem clássica deste blogue, mas que muita gente ainda não descobriu.

Há dias fiz este comentário no Twitter:

Não quero entrar em polémica, até porque IMPOSTO É ROUBO, mas o exemplo foi mal escolhido. O sector da metalomecânica, excluindo produção automóvel, teve mais de 10 anos de crescimento pornográfico. Só este ano está a decair um bocado face a 2017, o que até é saudável.

— Carlos P da Cruz (@ccz1) September 17, 2018

A parte I refere quatro alternativas para a reforçar a procura pela oferta de uma organização:

1. Diferenciação;
2. Reduzir o valor da oferta dos concorrentes;
3. Ter o custo mais baixo; e
4. Aumentar o custo dos concorrentes.

Competir pela redução do custo da nossa oferta é só uma das possibilidades. E como escrevi aqui há muitos anos, competir pelo preço mais baixo não é para quem quer, é para quem pode.

Qual é a identidade?

Há anos que escrevo aqui que Mongo, um mundo de tribos apaixonadas, não vai ser fácil para as empresas grandes. Recordo, por exemplo:

• "-Tu não és meu irmão de sangue!"
• Uma novela sobre Mongo (parte X)
• Sou de outra opinião

Uma empresa grande que queira servir a tribo vermelha, vai descobrir que não vai ser bem vista pela tribo azul, e vice-versa. E Mongo não aprecia a simetria: Não é imponentemente que se muda.

Ontem, em linha com isto, descobri este texto "No Matter Your Game, Ultimately This 1 Thing Separates You From The Pack":

""The toughest thing is to have an identity."
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It was an insight with implications and value reaching far beyond a single team, pursuit, or time. His point was this - no matter your assets or the odds, there is something deeply powerful about knowing and consciously seeking to cultivate who you are, an investment that pays dividends in how you show up to do whatever it is you do.
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The New 21st Century Game Plan: Cultural Clarity
Ever-shifting conditions now characterize every environment in which we work, play, and live, and because they do, adaptability is what we most need. What enables it? While many things certainly come into play, at the heart of any successful team is a strong and clear culture. And at the heart of a robust and vibrant culture is identity, both individual and collective. It sounds simple, but somehow we are missing it.
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A 2017 study found that 70 percent of companies will eventually face the impediment of unengaged employees. In that study, a lack of transparency and unclear goals and roles were identified as culprits. But think further, beyond the stats and the typical commentary. Each of these reasons is a symptom of the larger issue of unclear identity."

"absolute clarity of purpose"

“Experience suggests,” he wrote, “that every order which can be misunderstood will be.” The intention should convey absolute clarity of purpose by focusing on the essentials and leaving out everything else. The task should not be specified in too much detail. Above all, the senior commander was not to tell his subordinate how he was to accomplish his task, as he would if were to issue an order. The first part of the directive was to give the subordinate freedom to act within the boundaries set by the overall intention. The intention was binding; the task was not. A German officer’s prime duty was to reason why.
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It recognized that battle quickly becomes chaotic. It emphasized independence of thought and action, stating that “a failure to act or a delay is a more serious fault than making a mistake in the choice of means.” Every unit was to have its own clearly defined area of responsibility, and the freedom of unit commanders extended to a choice of form as well as means, which depended on specific circumstances. The responsibility of every officer was to exploit their given situation to the benefit of the whole.
The guiding principle of action was to be the intent of the higher commander. ”

Excerto de: Bungay, Stephen. “The Art of Action: Leadership that Closes the Gaps between Plans, Actions and Results”.

"manage value in order to make a profit " parte I

"Entrepreneurs who seek to manage value in order to make a profit should focus on three key items: increasing the added value of the firm, investing in bargaining ability and improving their bargaining position relative to internal stakeholders.
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Increase your firm’s added value in the vertical chain. As a base rule, no firm can appropriate more value than its added value. Raising the firm’s added value is, therefore, crucial. There are four basic strategies by which a firm can increase its added value and, thus, its prospect for appropriating value and making a profit. First, the most straightforward strategy is simply to increase the firm’s V by means of differentiation, improving product quality and the match between product attributes and the subjectively perceived needs of consumers (segmentation). Second, a firm may also improve its added value by lowering the V of its competitors. This slightly less intuitive strategy may for example involve creating switching costs for buyers by building platforms with strong network effects. Third, a firm may also increase its added value by being more cost efficient than its competitors (lower C). This may, for example, involve establishing value-based partnerships with suppliers that reduce transaction costs and increase trust and transparency (traditional value-based management). The fourth and final strategy for managing added value is to increase the cost of competitors. Symmetrical to the previous point, this may involve disrupting competitors’ supplier relationships by making upstream supplier industries less efficient. This can, for example, be accomplished by increasing supplier-switching costs by locking them into a certain platform or ecosystem."

Trecho retirado de "What Is Value and How Is It Managed?" de Niklas L. Hallberg, publicado em Journal of Creating Value 3(2) 173–183, 2017.

"Competitive Advantages Are Transient"

“Competitive Advantages Are Transient.
When industry knowledge matures, copycats will catch up. Because latecomers often inherit a lower cost structure without the legacy assets, they exert competitive pressures on industry pioneers.
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It Is Possible to Maintain Your Competitive Advantage
To avert this trajectory requires executives to reassess a firm’s foundational or core knowledge and its maturity. Circumventing the seemingly inevitable begins by acknowledging where we are. Managers must therefore ask themselves what knowledge discipline is the most fundamental to their company. What is the core knowledge of your business? And how mature or widely available is it?
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How likely will the core competencies of your business be devalued, and how soon?.
If Leaping Is So Important, When Is the Best Time to Leap?
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A performance crisis, whether perceived or real, legitimizes top leaders’ push for an abrupt reorientation. In breaking the grip of the existing organization, top management may simultaneously announce a new strategy and centralize resource allocation to make major investments in new areas or to force divestiture of unpromising projects. But such an abrupt change with such a wide scope also incurs huge risks because it leaves no margin for errors. It is therefore better to experiment, making small bets, while time is still on our side. In fact, one doesn’t need to be a super-forecaster to know where to leap next. The inevitable is often quite apparent. Companies just need to leap while time is still on their side.
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Successful executives often exhibit a bias for action. But it’s even more important to separate the noise from the signal that actually pinpoints the glacial movement around us. Listening carefully to the right signals requires patience and discipline. Seizing a window of opportunity, which means not necessarily being the first mover but the first to get it right, takes courage and determination.”

Excerto de “Leap” de Howard Yu.

O papel dos individuos

Ontem ao final da tarde encontrei este tweet:

Adam nails this one. As @stanford’s Jim March says, leadership requires plumbing and poetry. I would add that organizations would be in deep shit without skilled plumbers. https://t.co/5aEeArBvXk

— Bob Sutton (@work_matters) September 22, 2018

Isto depois de uma caminhada onde comecei a ler esta tese de doutoramento "Micro-foundations of value- based pricing and selling" de Mario Kienzler, onde sublinhei:

"it is not enough to enable customer value creation, firms also have to take value capture seriously. Value capture is defined as the processes that allow firms to claim some of the value created in exchange relationships. For supplier firms, value capture means making a profit from enabling customer value creation.
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value-based selling has on average a positive relation with performance at the level of the salesperson and value-based pricing with performance at the level of the product and the firm.
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since “organizations are systems of coordinated action among individuals and groups whose preferences, information, interests, or knowledge differ”, it is germane to recognize how these differences influence firm performance.
Indeed, evidence suggests that individuals have a sizable impact on firm performance.
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If one accepts that organizational activities, routines, capabilities and processes tell only part of the story, then the individuals within organizations become an important unit of analysis."

Acerca das mudanças

Volta e meia procuro esta imagem e não a consigo localizar. Agora que a encontrei fica aqui para utilização futura.

"You have to trust in something"

"This, according to Steve Jobs, is the heart of his approach to making decisions:
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You can't connect the dots looking forward; you can only connect them looking backwards. So you have to trust that the dots will somehow connect in your future. You have to trust in something--your gut, destiny, life, karma, whatever. This approach has never let me down, and it has made all the difference in my life.

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Steve Jobs was aware of something special when he made his decisions: He knew that he didn't know everything.
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As leaders, we often feel pressure to be the smartest person in the room--to know about every move being made, and every piece of information pertinent to our organization. However, this is incredibly unrealistic--no one person can know everything there is to know about an organization in today's increasingly complex and volatile business environment."

 Aquele "You have to trust in something" é aquilo a que há muitos anos aqui chamei, influenciado pelo Paulo Vaz, de "optimismo não documentado", ou que costumo referir nas empresas como: "perder o pé":

• "Algures, para criar o futuro, vai ser preciso perder o pé e começar a nadar."
• "Em qualquer negócio, há uma altura em que um empresário tem de arriscar e perder o pé por algum tempo, se não nunca sai da cepa torta."
• "Claro que os incumbentes já não são empreendedores, são gestores do que existe... são mordomos de Gondor, têm medo de perder o pé, têm medo de arriscar, têm medo ..."

Trecho retirado de "Steve Jobs Used a Remarkably Powerful Decision-Making Strategy That Will Transform Your Business"

Fortnite e Mongo

Pelos títulos, tenho apanhado cada vez a referência ao nome "Fortnite". Como só jogo Sudoku, problema meu certamente, nunca tive curiosidade de ler algo mais sobre o Fortnite, embora os títulos fossem suficientes para me aperceber que se trata de um jogo muito popular.

Entretanto, na semana passada fui levar o meu filho mais novo a Tikrit, para o recomeço dos seus estudos de Cinema, durante a viagem contou-me uma particularidade do Fortnite que me surpreendeu e que logo cataloguei no domínio de Mongo.

- Os criadores do Fortnite têm ganho muito, muito dinheiro.

- O que é o Fortnite?
- É um jogo que as pessoas podem jogar online de forma gratuita!
- Espera aí! SE o jogo é gratuito como é que fazem dinheiro?
- Fazem dinheiro porque as pessoas compram roupas, compram danças, ...
- Ah! Compram "peças" para terem mais chances de ganhar, como mais armas, mais balões de oxigénio, vida extra, ...
- Não! O que as pessoas compram não tem nada a ver com o terem mais ou menos possibilidades de ganhar o jogo. o que as pessoas compram é só para show-off
- Get out of here! Não acredito!

Claro que o moço tinha razão

"Within nine months of its debut last September, the free-to-play game had attracted 125 million registered users, more than 40 million of whom play every month, from sixth graders to pro gamers to NBA all-stars. Meanwhile, users are popping into Fortnite’s in-game Item Shop to buy outfits for their survivalist characters to wear, as well as emotes (funny dances and gestures) for them to perform. As a result, Epic Games has reportedly already generated more than $1 billion in revenue from Fortnite, which—once again—costs nothing to play."

Contou-me o meu filho que volta e meia, Bruxelas entra em campo e proíbe jogo ou aplica multas por causa de ser um jogo e haver muito dinheiro envolvido. Até mencionou um caso recente que não retive. Com o Fortnite é um jogo grátis, ponto. E o que as pessoas compram não é para o jogo ponto! É para alimentar o nosso lado biológico/psicológico assente em danças nupciais.

Lembram-se dos economistas que defendem modelos económicos baseados no pressuposto da racionalidade dos humanos? Gente que nunca ouviu falar da Little Miss Matched, que descobri aqui,  ou do Fortnite. Quanto menos racionais, mais Mongo faz sentido, mais a PME tem vantagem, mais a customização faz sentido e tem mercado.

Trecho retirado de "If you think Fortnite is just a video game, you’re missing the big picture"

"Specifying too much detail actually shakes confidence and creates uncertainty "

Uma delícia estes textos de von Molkte, escritos em 1869 e tão actuais.

“In 1869, von Moltke issued a document called Guidance for Large Unit Commanders. It was to become seminal, laying out principles of higher command which remained unchanged for 70 years, by which time the Prussian Army had become the German Army. Some passages are echoed in the doctrine publications of US and NATO forces to the present day. It contains von Moltke’s solution to the specific problem he identified in the Memoire, and directly addressed the general problem posed by the greatly increased scale of modern warfare: how to direct an organization too large for a single commander to control in person. As such, it is probably the first document of modern times to define the role of the senior executive in a large corporation.
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What is of interest here is the approach to command and control. The emphasis is on the former rather than the latter
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With darkness all around you, you have to develop a feeling for what is right, often based on little more than guesswork, and issue orders in the knowledge that their execution will be hindered by all manner of random accidents and unpredictable obstacles. In this fog of uncertainty, the one thing that must be certain is your own decision… the surest way of achieving your goal is through the single-minded pursuit of simple actions
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There are numerous situations in which an officer must act on his own judgment. For an officer to wait for orders at times when none can be given would be quite absurd. But as a rule, it is when he acts in line with the will of his superior that he can most effectively play his part in the whole scheme of things.
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not commanding more than is strictly necessary, nor planning beyond the circumstances you can foresee. In war, circumstances change very rapidly, and it is rare indeed for directions which cover a long period of time in a lot of detail to be fully carried out.
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Specifying too much detail actually shakes confidence and creates uncertainty if things do not turn out as anticipated. Going into too much detail makes a senior commander a hostage to fortune, because in a rapidly changing environment,
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In any case, a leader who believes that he can make a positive difference through continual personal interventions is usually deluding himself. He thereby takes over things other people are supposed to be doing, effectively dispensing with their efforts, and multiplies his own tasks to such an extent that he can no longer carry them all out.
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The demands made on a senior commander are severe enough as it is. It is far more important that the person at the top retains a clear picture of the overall situation than whether some particular thing is done this way or that.
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The higher the level of command, the shorter and more general the orders should be. The next level down should add whatever further specification it feels to be necessary, and the details of execution are left to verbal instructions or perhaps a word of command. This ensures that everyone retains freedom of movement and decision within the bounds of their authority."

Excerto de: Bungay, Stephen. “The Art of Action: Leadership that Closes the Gaps between Plans, Actions and Results”.

"an era of hyperpersonalization"

Um título que é a cara deste blogue e de uma das mensagens que aqui se veiculam, "The Industrial Era Is Coming To An End. Here's What's Next".

O que defendemos aqui acerca de Mongo, acerca da do fim do modelo do século XX, acerca do fim do modelo da massa, acerca do fim do modelo da homogeneização?

"The industrial era model, from the factory to the classroom, was built for scale. It worked for 200 years.But something new is replacing it.
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Big transitions are fascinating examples of how desperately companies try to hold onto the past; driving by using their rearview mirror. That never works. Case in point, the transition out of the industrial era.
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According to research done by Accenture, 93% of chief strategy officers across all industries believe that their company will be disrupted within five years. And yet, only 20% feel they are ready for it.
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The bottom line is that we are living through a transition from the industrial era, in which scale meant depersonalization and delivering one size fits all products, to an era of hyperpersonalization in which every product will have to fit the unique needs of each consumer. The Answer to what's next is that we are entering the era of individualization where every product and service is not just customized but built to the specific needs of each person.
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It may be hard to buy into that after having grown up in the era of industry, but companies that don't get that, be they in insurance, banking, healthcare, education, manufacturing, retail, or any other industry will soon find themselves at the helm of the past"

"psychological ownership"

"psychological ownership. That’s when consumers feel so invested in a product that it becomes an extension of themselves.
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Companies that encourage psychological ownership can entice customers to buy more products, at higher prices, and even to willingly promote those products among their friends. But if businesses disrespect this feeling, sales can suffer."

Em "How Customers Come to Think of a Product as an Extension of Themselves" um texto sobre como promover a "psychological ownership":

• "One way is to allow customers a hand in forming the product"
• "Businesses should strive to make products customizable. When consumers can personalize products, they buy more and are happy to recommend those products to friends."
• "Building intimate knowledge - This occurs when customers believe they know every facet of a product or brand so well that they have a special, unique relationship with it."

"Companies legally own their brand, but their most devoted customers may own it psychologically. Businesses should cultivate this feeling—and then respect it."

E um bocado de pensamento estratégico?

"Almost every leader wants to make more time for strategic thinking. In one survey of 10,000 senior leaders, 97% of them said that being strategic was the leadership behavior most important to their organization’s success.
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And yet in another study, a full 96% of the leaders surveyed said they lacked the time for strategic thinking."

Claro que é mais fácil pedir ao governo de turno uma protecção suplementar qualquer.

Aposto nisto que se segue:

"What seems to really power creative thinking, according to a Stanford University study, is activities such as taking a short walk, especially outside. But that behavior may well be penalized in a corporate milieu that prizes face time."

Sugiro também, antes da reflexão estratégica, uma meia-hora de aguarelas ou lápis de cor num desenho abstracto. É magia!

"First, it’s important to remember that strategic thinking doesn’t necessarily require large amounts of time; it’s not about taking endless sabbaticals or going on leadership retreats. ... It takes zero time to have an innovative idea or to make a decision, but if you don’t have psychic space, those things are not necessarily impossible, but they’re suboptimal.”[Moi ici: A importância do distanciamento, do fim de semana, das férias, dos retiros]

Trecho retirado de "If Strategy Is So Important, Why Don’t We Make Time for It?"

Atirar recursos para cima de problemas para salvar o coiro

Esta manhã durante o noticiário das 07h00, já num semáforo, ouvi que tinham metido 100 precários na Segurança Social para ver se reduziam os tempos de resposta de alguns job-to-be-done tais como:

• responder a uma reclamação - 1 ano
• trata de um reforma - 9 meses

Vários entrevistados referiam que meter 100 pessoas a mais era irrelevante porque não se mexiam nos gargalos.

Cada vez menos empresas fazem isto, porque ter pessoal é caro e o dinheiro não nasce nas árvores, mas o estado continua a fazê-lo e, sinceramente, não sei se algum vez o deixará de fazer, porque é sempre mais fácil subir a carga fiscal para pagar a mais funcionários. A técnica é: perante um problema lançar dinheiro para cima do problema e esperar que a coisa se resolva, ou pelo menos salvar o coiro porque se fez alguma coisa e ninguém pode dizer que nada foi feito ou tentado.

Uma empresa perante um desafio como este actuaria da seguinte forma:

• escolher um job-to-be-done concreto;
• estabelecer um desafio, um critério de sucesso, por exemplo responder a uma reclamação em 3 meses;
• escolher um líder de projecto e uma equipa que integra quem participa nas várias fases de resolução de uma reclamação (no estado estas equipas têm tendência a ter 15 a 20 membros, o que é um convite ao insucesso. Nas empresas a regra é 7 +/- 2 membros)
• descrever o processo actual num fluxograma;
• pegar nas últimas 100 reclamações fechadas e registar no fluxograma quanto tempo cada uma demorou em cada etapa;
• normalmente o principio de Pareto funciona e descobre-se que 2 ou 3 passos ocupam 70 a 80% do tal ano de espera para dar uma resposta;
• então, o desafio deixa de ser responder a uma reclamação em 3 meses mas foca-se em: reduzir o tempo de fluxo nas etapas X, Y e Z em pelo menos T dias;
• perante situações concretas, pessoas com experiência sairão com sugestões sobre o que mudar nas práticas actuais para atingir o objectivo;
• depois, há que testar, implementar as sugestões e verificar se são eficazes, ou não.

Claro que isto dificilmente funcionará no estado. Quem protesta contra o jugo fiscal é logo apelidado de querer transformar isto numa Somália. No entanto, à custa de nunca se reduzir o número de pessoas no estado, o dinheiro é cada vez mais para pagar salários e não para proporcionar os serviços que supostamente justificam a existência dos postos de trabalho no estado.

• Fevereiro de 2018;
• Maio de 2018;
• Setembro de 2018.

"a willingness to show independence of mind and challenge authority"

O meu parceiro das conversas oxigenadoras começou por me dizer, logo no primeiro almoço, que desafiava as pessoas da sua equipa a desobedecer a ordens, a descobrirem que há uma forma alternativa de fazer melhor.

Entretanto, os prussianos aprenderam:

“Prince Friedrich Karl of Prussia, the nephew of the future Kaiser Wilhelm I, and a practicing soldier. In a series of essays published in the 1850s and 1860s, he reinforced the growing idea that what made the Prussian officer corps distinctive, and gave it an edge, was a willingness to show independence of mind and challenge authority. In an essay dating from 1860 entitled “The Origins and Development of the Spirit of the Prussian Officer,” he tells the story of a staff officer dutifully carrying out an order without question, only to be pulled up short by a high-ranking general with the words: “The King made you a staff officer because you should know when not to obey.” In contrast to other European officer corps, Prince Friedrich Karl comments, the Prussians do not allow themselves to be hemmed in with rules and regulations, but give rein to the imagination and exploit every opportunity opened up by unexpected success. Such behavior would not be possible if senior commanders were to demand full control over every unit.”

Excerto de: Bungay, Stephen. “The Art of Action: Leadership that Closes the Gaps between Plans, Actions and Results”. iBooks.

"helping them break through the limitation of this thinking"

"There is a difference between price and cost. Price is what you pay for something, and the cost is representative of the value (of which price is only part of the equation). Some people prefer to use price as the value, eliminating all other factors from consideration. Helping clients to recognize and address the other factors can shift them away from looking only at price.
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Sometimes ... you have to engage your client about what else they value outside of price, or you have to prompt them with the value by addressing it directly. You have to point them at the additional costs they are going to incur by being cheap, things like missed deadlines, rework, reordering, waiting for product, additional labor, poor speed to market, falling behind their competition, more labor, disappointed clients, lost clients or customers, poor experience, frustrated internal employees, loss of reputation and on and on.
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When your dream client weighs price more heavily than other factors that are equally—or more—important, you are responsible for helping them break through the limitation of this thinking. You are also responsible for not allowing them to underinvest in the results they real need—and avoiding the higher price they pay by being cheap."

Trechos retirados de "Helping Your Clients Understand Value"

Altos e baixos

Ontem, durante uma caminhada matinal de cerca de 7,7 km comecei a ler "Leal: “How to thrive in a world where everything can be copied" de Howard Yu.

De rajada li quase 1/8 do livro (pensei logo em 60 km de caminhadas para o completar) e encontrei uma série de coisas interessantes. No entanto, gostaria de começar por um relato, o relato da experiência de vida do autor, natural de Hong Kong:

“my fascination—or perhaps, obsession—with industry dynamics and the constant displacement of early pioneers goes back much further to a time before I thought of joining academia. Born and raised in Hong Kong, I watched the inevitable migration of knowledge and capital. I remember my elementary school teachers describing the economy of Hong Kong as an “entrepôt,” a term the British applied to my city when it served as the only window between China and the rest of the world. Virtually all merchandise and goods—cheese, chocolate, automobiles, raw cotton, and rice—had to pass through Hong Kong on their way in and out of China.
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With its low labor costs, Hong Kong rose as a major manufacturing hub for labor-intensive industries. The once-sleepy fishing village became “the Pearl of the East,” a shining example of economic development. By 1972, Hong Kong had replaced Japan as the world’s largest toy exporter, with garment and apparel manufacturing forming the backbone of our economy. Li Ka-shing, one of the richest men in Asia with an estimated net worth of $30 billion, started out as a factory man, a supplier of hand-knit plastic flowers, before he moved into property development, container port operation, mass transportation, retailing, telecommunications, and much else.
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But in the early 1980s, Hong Kong’s manufacturing cluster imploded. Factories moved to mainland China and, with them, manufacturing jobs. They first moved across the border to Shenzhen, then to Guangdong Province, and then to the rest of China. Unemployment in Hong Kong soared, crushing the optimism that had characterized residents for so many years. “In the year of my graduation from college, my classmates were speaking of the need to acquire new skills to remain self-sufficient. That was before we had landed our first jobs. To survive, we told ourselves, we had to reinvent.
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And Hong Kong did just that. It cast aside its former manufacturing and colonial identity and reinvented itself as a financial and logistics hub for the region. That reinvention of Hong Kong was where I grew up. It happened at the time when policy makers throughout the world were singularly praising outsourcing as “efficient.” It all happened before any free-market economist became alarmed that emerging market firms might one day catch up with established ones in the West. It was an era of unbridled trust in globalization. But for us Hong Kongers, including myself, it was the age of distrust. Everyone I spoke to yearned for stability and continuity. I wanted to find out how to achieve just that.”

Por cá a maioria das pessoas associa os altos e baixos da economia, a azar, a ignorância ou a falcatrua. No entanto, a economia é uma continuação da biologia, com os seus altos e baixos mesmo para quem trabalha bem. Em vez de confiar que o ovo vai estar no cu da galinha, em vez de confiar que os planetas se alinharão quando for preciso, é preciso tentar estar um passo à frente e, mesmo assim perceber que pode não ser suficiente.

Tudo a conjugar-se para asneira da grossa (parte II)

Parte I.

“A gap in knowledge prompts the collection of more data. ... Seeking to improve its information-gathering and processing capability, the company became more complex, adding committees and overlays, some permanent, some ad hoc. ... So it pumped more data through its existing systems. No one took a decision to do so. It was just the natural result of how the organization as a system was programmed. ... the data flow paralyzed decision making, because no matter how much there was, there was always more to obtain. Meetings were about analyzing problems rather than resolving them.
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A gap in alignment is often indicated by top-level frustration and lower-level confusion. ... Top-level managers felt increasing pressure to specify exactly what they wanted people to do. They began to stress actions rather than outcomes, in the one case by spelling things out “in painful detail” and in the other through SOPs and central processes.
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A gap in effects is typically responded to by an increase in control. The favorite control mechanism is metrics. As time goes on, the emphasis is switched from outputs to inputs, so that in the end everybody’s actions are detailed, analyzed, and controlled by a few people who look to everyone else as if they are seeking to become omniscient about the world outside and omnipotent in the world inside. Controls have a cost. Overhead builds up around the controllers, and the reporting burden increases for the controlled.
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These natural reactions do not simply fail to solve the problem, they make it worse. Because the cause-and-effect cycles are systemic and reciprocal, all three reactions interact with and exacerbate each other."

Quantas empresas caem nesta armadilha?

Lembram-se dos relatos dos bombeiros em Monchique, parados enquanto populares combatiam fogos a poucos metros? Parados porque não tinham autorização superior para agir!

Há muitos anos ouvi falar em Blitzkrieg, como "Guerra Relâmpago", e sempre pensei que tinha a ver com surpresa e velocidade. Só há cerca de 10 anos aprendi com Boyd o que estava por trás da Blitzkrieg. A origem da Blitzkrieg assenta lá atrás no tempo, quando os exércitos de Napoleão limparam o sebo ao exército prusfsiano, uma eficaz máquina de combate da guerra anterior.

Uma catástrofe militar tem o poder de acabar com direitos adquiridos e colocar como objectivo número um a sobrevivência da comunidade. Isso, liberta as pessoas para colocar tudo em causa, até a impossibilidade de militares do povo poderem subir na hierarquia militar até ao topo por não serem de boas famílias.

Excerto de: Bungay, Stephen. “The Art of Action: Leadership that Closes the Gaps between Plans, Actions and Results”.

O Espírito Santo providenciará uma resposta!

Tenho um tio com mais de 90 anos que é padre.

Há anos perguntei-lhe como é que a ICAR iria resolver o problema da falta de vocações sacerdotais. Eu a pensar que o tinha entalado recebi uma resposta que me desconsertou:

- O Espírito Santo providenciará uma resposta!

E quantos mais anos passam mais eu acho a resposta cheia de sabedoria.

Reconheço que em certa medida é o que eu escrevo aqui quando falo da tolice que é acreditar que os modelos de funcionamento da economia, que hoje nos são familiares, têm centenas de anos, mas parecem ser eternos. Mentira!

Talvez por isso, em inglês se diga que:

- Trends are for suckers!

Muita gente faz previsões assumindo que uma variável muda e que todas as outras se mantêm constantes. Por exemplo, assumir que vão faltar empregos por causa da ascensão das máquinas e considerar como constantes aquilo que é variável:

• demografia; e
• Mongo com a sua exigência de mais diversidade, de mais customização.

E esquecer que o emprego, algo que nos parece tão natural como a chuva ou a noite e o dia, é uma criação recente. E como sublinha Nassim Taleb com o efeito Lindy, é mais fácil que o livro em papel ainda exista daqui a 100 anos do que um iPad. Se a humanidade prosperou durante milhares de anos sem empregos e sem escola pública poderá prosperar outros tantos depois dessas realidades serem abandonadas.

Escrevo isto depois da leitura de "A World With Fewer Babies Spells Economic Trouble". Sigo aqui no blogue há muitos anos uma postura do contra. Não creio que seja uma catástrofe, um futuro onde os humanos têm menos filhos, se calhar investem mais nesses filhos, se calhar esses filhos serão vistos pela sociedade em geral como algo escasso e, por isso, de maior valor. Escrevi aqui algures que um dia seríamos (os nossos descendentes) todos tratados como Figos.

Catástrofe será caminhar para um mundo com uma população mais envelhecida, com menos gente nova, e não fazer nenhuma alteração no funcionamento das sociedades por causa de direitos adquiridos.

Este trecho:

"4. What happens when a country’s population stops growing?
Its economy can still expand, but the pace over the long run would be limited to the speed at which productivity -- output per hour worked -- is rising. Since the 2007-2009 recession, productivity gains have been relatively meager, making low fertility rates an added problem. If fewer people work, there’s less income to go around. Fewer workers also mean less tax revenue for retirement and health-care programs. And that means governments might have to cut benefits, raise taxes or borrow more, pitting the old and young against each other."

Faz-me lembrar uma reunião de condomínio recente. Um casal de idade, ambos reformados, protestavam contra o valor mensal a pagar pelo condomínio. A empresa que gere o condomínio explicou cada um dos items do orçamento, chamou a atenção para as obras que iriam ser feitas e as propostas que tinham recebido. Então, o casal propôs uma medida para reduzir os custos do condomínio, cortar a luz na garagem do prédio.

O que fará o Espírito Santo neste mundo secular?

Há uma citação que aprendi a valorizar: "nature evolves away from constraints, not toward goals"

Uns hão-de querer manter direitos adquiridos, outros acharão abominável fazer como fizeram este mês os japoneses e marcar a idade da reforma para os 70 anos, no fim algo há-de levar-nos para um equilíbrio.

Lembro-me de um comentador na oposição no tempo da troika dizer que querer ter défice zero, cortar cerca de 4,5 mil milhões de euros, era impossível. Agora, apoiante da geringonça, acha normal apontar a défice zero. Se antes achava o investimento público intocável, agora nem fala dele.

Como indivíduos, somos um resultado fantástico de milhares de milhões de anos de evolução, adaptamos-nos a tudo, com maior ou menor dor. Quando a necessidade se impuser acabaremos por chegar a uma alternativa sustentável.