LUCAS 2:8-11
"Naquela região havia pastores que passavam a noite no campo guardando os rebanhos. Apareceu-lhes um anjo e a luz gloriosa do Senhor envolveu-os. Ficaram muito assustados, mas o anjo disse-lhes: «Não tenham medo! Venho aqui trazer-vos uma boa nova que será motivo de grande alegria para todo o povo. Pois nasceu hoje, na cidade de David, o vosso Salvador que é Cristo, o Senhor!"
"dei comigo a pensar que a inovação que o calçado precisa nesta altura não é mais do mesmo, não é a “sustained innovation” de que Clayton Christensen falava, e ao qual o fluxograma acima se aplicaAs empresas de calçado devem manter e tirar o máximo partido da actividade que conseguem ter através do modelo de negócio actual. Paralelamente, devem criar uma empresa, ainda que virtual, dedicada a desenvolver o negócio do futuro. E para desenvolver o negócio do futuro essa empresa tem de se comportar como uma startup: sem clientes, sem negócios, apenas com hipóteses de produtos e de clientes."
"Picking up on those necessary actors, the first step in promoting a market-shaping vision is to figure out the “minimum viable system” of your market. What channels are needed to reach the customers? What happens between your customers and the end user? What kind of sub-contractors and business partners will you require? Working out the requisite value chain is only half the job, though. In addition to the physical value chain, your future market system most likely needs other actors in it....Okay, so you’ve identified the actors in your minimum viable market system. Now do some math. How does the envisioned change impact each respective actor? Who stands to gain? Who will lose? Will some actors remain unaffected? Anecdotal evidence suggests that those market-shaping initiatives which both (1) create a positive change to all actors involved and (2) distribute the added value relatively evenly across the network enjoy the best chances of succeeding....Note the limits to spreading your market-shaping love, though. It’s only the actors in your minimum viable market system whom you have to treat nicely and fairly! Market shaping can, and does, generate losers! That’s why ignoring market shaping just isn’t an option. And it’s half the reason we’ve urged you to shape markets yourself lest some other player who doesn’t need you in their minimum viable system gets in first and forces you out. Some market-shaping strategies have, in fact, bankrupted companies. And while the word “disruption” may inspire dreams of deliciously unreasonable wealth in the minds of would-be disrupters, it will strike fear into the hearts of the professions and sectors that would be disrupted."
"Pergunta - Avizinha-se um volume de investimento comunitário inédito em Portugal, mas há um domínio espanhol nas grandes obras. Há capacidade nacional? [Moi ici: Antes de mais recordemos que o negócio da construção pública é um negócio de preço. Ganha quem apresentar a proposta com o preço mais baixo. Preço mais baixo é o negócio em que as empresas grandes, eficientes, organizadas, capazes de tirar partido da escala têm vantagem competitiva]Resposta - Capacidade tem de haver. O sector da construção sofreu muito. Subsistem no mercado poucas empresas grandes, como acontecia há 10 anos. Mas também se está a formar uma nova geração de empresas, com muita qualidade, que também precisam de oportunidade de crescer, e essa dimensão tem de ser dada cá....Pergunta - Com que tipo de apoios?Resposta - Em termos de concorrência, tem de ser repensada a questão dos preços anormalmente baixos, porque vai pagar-se no futuro. E depois há que aproveitar alguma da capacidade instalada que existe. A construção também precisa do ‘compre português’ e de apoios à internacionalização. [Moi ici: Portanto, as empresas espanholas, maiores que as portuguesas, conseguem ganhar os concursos públicos em Portugal. Presumo que sem necessidade de apoio do governo português]...Pergunta - Mas como?Resposta - Basta olhar para os nossos vizinhos de Espanha. Sabe de alguma empresa estrangeira — não é portuguesa — que lá esteja a trabalhar? Uma só? Francesa, inglesa ou brasileira? Eu não.Pergunta - É possível proteger o mercado sem violar a legislação europeia? [Moi ici: Por que é que o jornal parte logo do princípio que as empresas espanholas precisam de ser protegidas nos concursos públicos? Se elas são maiores...]Resposta - Se em Espanha o conseguem proteger sem violar a lei, nós também o deveríamos fazer."[Moi ici: Que provas tem o presidente da Mota-Engil de que há protecção?]
“Spain’s experience was not unusual or unrepresentative. Lottery winners often do worse in life than if they had bought a losing ticket. The sudden infusion of money acts like a hit of cocaine and distorts behavior in similarly unhealthy ways. Something similar happens to countries on the receiving end of unsolicited financial inflows. Few societies have been able to absorb sudden, large sums of capital from abroad without experiencing soaring debt, asset bubbles, and economic crises. It is an almost inevitable consequence of a rapid and unexpected increase in real purchasing power.”
Trecho retirado de “Trade Wars Are Class Wars” de Matthew C. Klein.
O dia mais importante do ano do meu calendário profano, o dia em que finalmente os dias deixam de diminuir, o Solstício de Inverno:
"In market shaping as in comedy, timing is everything....shapeability: is your market system currently hot and malleable, or frozen stiff?...mapping the life of market ecosystems over sustained periods, our work has confirmed that markets can behave quite differently over time. Long eras may exhibit relative calm and stability some gradual development, perhaps, but more or less constant basic structure and rules of the game. Punctuating the stability, however, come times of turbulence. At such points, the market undergoes rapid changes and perhaps becomes a completely different market ecosystem.Savvy market shapers seek to time their efforts to coincide with these latter periods of instability, rapid change, or discontinuity....While acknowledging the issue of timing is as much art as science, we offer three more generalized and enduring signs of shapeable markets. First, any major shock or crisis brings turbulence....Short of obvious shocks or crises, a second sign of a shapeable market is rising dissonance or debate in the market from controversy to simply a buzz abroad that “something should change.” Such dissonance is an especially strong indicator of a market-shaping window if it is sustained for a long period of time or if it seems to be increasing in intensity rather than gradually subsiding. Finally, the recent history of the market ecosystem may also divulge clues about its malleability. Recent studies suggest that markets that have assumed their current form through a government-led process or the deliberate market-shaping efforts of a particular firm are more susceptible to continued market shaping than those which have evolved organically, without strong influence from any particular market actor."
Vivemos tempos maduros para a aplicação generalizada da capacidade de "moldar mercados".
Trechos retirados de SMASH: Using Market Shaping to Design New Strategies for Innovation, Value Creation, and Growth de Kaj Storbacka e Suvi Nenonen.
O Hélder Ferreira publicou há dias este texto no FB:
"Years ago, I produced a record for a very skilled duo. They were incredibly hardworking and committed to their art. In order to survive, they performed three hundred days a year, and they lived in a van, driving each day to a new town, playing at a local coffeehouse, sleeping in the van, then repeating it all the next day.In most towns, there are a few places like this—if you’ve issued a few CDs and are willing to work for cheap, you can get booked without too much trouble.These cafés are not good clients. Easy in, easy out, next!What I helped these musicians understand is that going from town to town and working with easy gigs was wasting their effort and hiding their art. What they needed to do was stay in one town, earn fans, play again, earn fans, move to a better venue, and do it again. And again.Working their way up by claiming what they’d earned: fans."
Como são os clientes da sua empresa? "Easy in, easy out, next!"
“By 1825 problems were already beginning to lay themselves out in a pattern that would later become familiar. It became clear, for example, that many of the investments were of very questionable value, a common problem whenever a small country attempts to absorb large financial inflows. There are simply not enough productive opportunities available. Instead, the excess credit invariably finances boondoggles, surging imports of consumer goods, or, as was often the case in the 1820s, imports of weapons to fight one of the many civil wars that immediately broke out after independence from Spain.”
E comparar com:
"A comissária europeia Elisa Ferreira assinalou esta quinta-feira, num evento online, que, "ao fim destes anos todos de apoio maciço de fundos estruturais, Portugal ainda é um país atrasado", e apelou a "uma leitura territorializada das políticas"."
Trecho retirado de “Trade Wars Are Class Wars” de Matthew C. Klein.
Ainda ontem na parte I escrevi:
"pensei naqueles membros da tríade que no tempo da troika diziam que o problema era o euro... santa ignorância - na fase da paz todos ganham até que aparece alguém, que está do outro lado daquela barreira negra que promove a inércia, e come quota de mercado aos que ainda estão na fase da paz..."
Estava longe de pensar que logo no próprio dia seria brindado com esta pérola:
"Os que, à direita, criticam a estagnação económica do país nos últimos 20 anos fazem-no sem nunca referir o principal fator de estagnação: a adesão ao euro."
— Bloco de Esquerda (@EsquerdaNet) December 17, 2020
Postado por @vicenteaferreir em @LadrBic https://t.co/1ydODjGOfy
Vinte anos de mudanças tremendas no contexto, provocadas pela adesão da China à Organização Mundial do Comércio e pela internet, foram aumentando as possibilidades de quebrar as barreiras da inércia.
Por que é que tantos países que eram mais pobres do que nós e que também aderiram ao euro, já nos ultrapassaram?
"o setor europeu de retalho de vestuário e calçado está a ser altamente penalizado pela pandemia. Até setembro, a queda acumulada ascende a 24,4%, de acordo com dados do World Footwear.
O índice de volume de negócios no setor de retalho na União Europeia nos artigos especializados de vestuário, calçado e artigos em couro tem revelado perdas constantes ao longo dos primeiros nove meses do ano, sempre na casa dos dois dígitos, revelando-se mesmo superior a 20% quando comparado com o mesmo período do ano anterior. No verão, nos meses de julho a setembro, verificou-se uma ligeira recuperação, ainda assim insuficiente para a hecatombe desde o início pandemia.
“Trata-se da confirmação de um sentimento generalizado, mas que ajuda a perceber melhor a dinâmica do mercado”, considera Luis Onofre. Para o Presidente da APICCAPS “estas quebras afetam particularmente as empresas portuguesas que, exportando mais de 95% da sua produção, têm na União Europeia o seu mercado de referência”.
Curiosamente, é em Espanha a e Portugal onde o setor do retalho na fileira moda mais está a sofrer, com perdas acumuladas de 33 e 31%, respetivamente. Os melhores registos ocorrem na Polónia (quebra de 10%), Lituânia (perda de 12%) e Estónia (recuo de 14%).
Entre os mercados de referência para as empresas portuguesas de calçado, o retalho de moda no Reino Unido caiu 29% entre janeiro a setembro deste ano. Em Itália o recuo acumulado é de 27% e em França 25% relativamente ao ano anterior. Na Alemanha o prejuízo ronda os 22% e na Holanda 16%."
Trechos retirados de "Retalho europeu colapsa"
Um texto interessante retirado do livro SMASH: Using Market Shaping to Design New Strategies for Innovation, Value Creation, and Growth de Kaj Storbacka e Suvi Nenonen.
"An industry association promotes an ordered market that is hospitable and less risky for participants. It does so not only by standardizing market elements but by creating a confident common language. Furthermore, governments prefer to deal with associations rather than with more nakedly self-interested individual firms.
However, like events and awards, industry associations generally favor the status quo. Worse, a reactionary association might actively oppose market-wide changes if detrimental to some members. And, unlike events and awards, industry associations derive authority by being exclusive. So, if your market-shaping strategy is clearly at odds with the current association’s agenda, our advice is to prepare for conflict."
Quantas vezes, ao longo dos anos, escrevi aqui sobre os conservadores lideres das associações empresariais, mais preocupados em salvar o passado do que em abraçar o futuro... dizem que tenho mau feitio.
"We found that populations under strong selection ... subsequently evolved ... most rapidly ... Compared to populations under weak or no selection, they reached higher green fluorescence during each generation of phase II and evolved a green emission peak more rapidly. Strong selection promoted both the elimination of deleterious mutations and the accumulation of foldability-improving mutations. As a result, proteins under strong selection evolved higher efficiency of protein folding (foldability) and, to an even greater extent, higher robustness to mutations than proteins under weak or no selection."
Vivemos, viveremos, pois tempos de evolução acelerada...
Talvez por isso nos últimos dias tenho encontrado vários artigos sobre a transformação das empresas. Por exemplo, "Why Business Transformation Efforts Often Fail".
No Twitter ainda uso como avatar a mesma imagem desde 2004:
"Not Establishing a Great Enough Sense of Urgency“Bad business results are both a blessing and a curse in the first phase. On the positive side, losing money does catch people’s attention. But it also gives less maneuvering room. With good business results, the opposite is true: convincing people of the need for change is much harder, but you have more resources to help make changes.”...Strong leadership is required to rally a company into action. “A paralyzed senior management often comes from having too many managers and not enough leaders,” said Kotter. “Management’s mandate is to minimize risk and to keep the current system operating. Change, by definition, requires creating a new system, which in turn always demands leadership. Phase one in a renewal process typically goes nowhere until enough real leaders are promoted or hired into senior-level jobs.”"
Outros sublinhados:
"Lacking a Vision
“In every successful transformation effort that I have seen, the guiding coalition develops a picture of the future that is relatively easy to communicate and appeals to customers, stockholders, and employees,” noted Kotter.
...
[Moi ici: Lembrei-me logo da TAP ao ler o trecho que se segue] Undercommunicating the Vision by a Factor of Ten
“Transformation is impossible unless hundreds or thousands of people are willing to help, often to the point of making short-term sacrifices, wrote Kotter. “Employees will not make sacrifices, even if they are unhappy with the status quo unless they believe that useful change is possible. Without credible communication, and a lot of it, the hearts and minds of the troops are never captured.”
Transformative changes are generally based on new, innovative ideas that few may understand in their early stages. It’s thus important to explain what’s unique and different about the new innovation to key constituencies, including clients, partners, analysts, reporters, and, most important, the company’s own employees. Effective communications are thus essential."
— EU_Eurostat (@EU_Eurostat) December 14, 2020
In 2018, highest median gross hourly earnings were recorded in 🇩🇰 Denmark (€27.2) and lowest in 🇧🇬 Bulgaria (€2.4).
How about your country ❓
How about gross hourly earnings expressed in Purchasing Power Standards (PPS*) ❓#StatisticsExplained
➡️ https://t.co/gwO9HZiweu pic.twitter.com/gnT3dJvBdf
Já só falta a Bulgária ultrapassar-nos... pensem nisso.
Socialismo é uma política robusta, qualquer que seja o país ou o estado de desenvolvimento, gera pobreza! Recordo esta previsão.
"For a market to work and develop, more actors than sellers and buyers are needed: sub-contractors, providers of complementary products or services, intermediaries, information providers, market research agencies, media, various interest groups, and regulators, to name just some. Actors play certain roles. To execute these roles, each actor requires certain know-how and to be configured or connected in certain ways. [Moi ici: Ou incentivados a participar no ecossistem. Não através de chantagem ou de suborno, mas indo ao encontro do que procuram e valorizam] Market ecosystems also require various forms of infrastructure, ranging from simple and often self-evident things like roads and electricity to more sophisticated things such as reliable data-communication links and fuel distribution systems.
...
Because your optimal market might benefit from more, or fewer, or different actors, playing different roles, in different configurations and equipped with different resources. And your optimal market might require more, or less, or different, or differently supplied, material and immaterial infrastructure. Indeed, if your market is still mostly the twinkle of a brilliant innovation in your eye and you have yet to create the market itself, you certainly won’t have enough actors or infrastructure yet! You’ll have to populate that space.
Happily, all these different elements the actors, their roles and know-how, and the infrastructure can to some extent be indirectly influenced, supplied, or brought into existence. Companies with an ambition to create new market systems or shape existing ones need to do exactly that. And we’ll be distinguishing here more between making new markets and shaping existing ones."
Trechos retirados do capítulo II do livro SMASH: Using Market Shaping to Design New Strategies for Innovation, Value Creation, and Growth de Kaj Storbacka e Suvi Nenonen.
Não é propriamente uma empresa de vão de escada:
"But Ideo has shared with Fast Company that, due to the economic downturn of COVID-19, the company will be laying off 8% of its global workforce. Its current headcount is 725 people."
Vamos ficar todos bem ...
Mais um sintoma da degradação do contexto competitivo da economia portuguesa, "De Estarreja para Hambach: Ineos já tem fábrica para produzir o Grenadier".
Um país em que o ministro da Economia ousa fazer esta comparação:
"“Deixar desaparecer a TAP era como deixar desaparecer a Autoeuropa ou pior. A TAP faturou o ano passado 3.400 milhões de euros e fez compras a 1.700 empresas portugueses, sem ser combustível. A TAP é uma das maiores exportadoras nacionais e (…) contribui muito para a economia nacional e para o emprego qualificado em toda a cadeia de valor”, referiu Pedro Siza Vieira, num debate sobre política setorial, na Assembleia da República."
Como se confunde facturação com lucro?
Como se compara uma empresa que gera lucro ano após ano com uma empresa que não ganha dinheiro há mais de 10 anos e precisa de dinheiro sacado aos contribuintes líquidos para sobreviver?
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