To experience a different perspective, you may have to travel a bit more pic.twitter.com/xGoUKbTDRC
— Vala Afshar (@ValaAfshar) November 5, 2020
Este tweet é muito bom. Visualiza como dois adultos podem olhar para a mesma situação e verem coisas diferentes ao mesmo tempo. Recordo sempre o candidato Cavaco Silva.
"PAUL SOLMAN: The no-skin-in-the-game class?
NASSIM NICHOLAS TALEB: Exactly. Decision-makers who can drag you into intervention, can drag you into policies that cosmetically feel good, but eventually, somebody pays a price and it’s not them.
There are two levels. The first one, and the most obvious one, is people who intervene in Iraq, thinking, “Hey, we’re going to bring democracy,” or some abstract concept. The thing falls apart, and they walk away from it. They’re not committed with living or owning the toy. They broke it. They don’t own it. Then, the same people make the same mistake with Libya and then now currently with Syria, the warmongers. In the past, historically, warmongers were soldiers. You could not rise in a senate if you didn’t have war experience. [Today if] you have a class of people who inflict risk on others without being affected by the outcome, that class of people is going to disrupt the system, causing some kind of collapse."
Trecho retirado de "Beware ‘faux experts’ who don’t pay for their actions, Nassim Taleb says"
"Strategy should be a problem-solving technique. That is where its true value lies. Strategy is the act of making a new set of choices designed to solve a problem that was created by the interaction of the existing set of choices with the competitive environment. This means that strategy does not start at a particular time of year or with an esoteric and vague SWOT analysis. It starts with an identification of a gap between the aspirations of the organization and the current outcomes it is achieving. If there is no gap, it is a waste of time to do strategy: just keep doing what you are doing."
Muitas vezes, com PMEs, o problema na base do desafio de formular uma estratégia é o "working forward to increase WTP"
Trecho retirado de "Strategy as Problem-Solving"
Entretanto, "Portugal no top do aumento das insolvências no confinamento".
Os que vivem do orçamento continuam a querer serrar o pouso a partir do qual vivem. Ainda não perceberam a catástrofe, a palavra é mesmo essa, em que estamos a mergulhar desde Março passado. Bem ou mal há uma quantidade de riqueza gerada no país, este ano essa capacidade foi dramaticamente enfraquecida e o dano ainda não acabou de ser feito. O que é que substitui essa riqueza não criada e não impostada? Mais dívida!!!
Até quando o país conseguirá endividar-se?
"Businesses have an incentive to determine consumers’ willingness to pay for their products or services. By estimating WTP and working backward to determine price, firms can confidently maximize profit margin while capturing as much value as possible from the consumer."
A mim o que me atrai mais é o "working forward to increase WTP".
Quando as empresas se concentram no preço e na eficiência concentram-se na progressiva erosão do WTP quando nada se faz para influenciar a percepção do cliente.
Trecho retirado de "Willingness to Pay: What It Is & How to Calculate"
Um texto, mais um, de Seth Godin, bom para reflexão:
"That’s a criticism, of course. A report, study or testimony that’s all anecdote with no data carries little in the way of actionable information.
On the other hand, if you want to change people’s minds, “all data and no anecdote” isn’t going to get you very far.
We act on what we understand, we understand what fits into our worldview and we remember what we act on."
Que estórias associamos aos produtos e serviços que desenvolvemos e vendemos?
Trecho retirado de “All anecdote and no data”
Ao ler esta estória "Polémica no Politécnico por causa da palavra “colegas”" lembrei-me logo da estória dos acidentes de aviação na Korean Airlines relatados por Malcolm Gladwell no livro "Outliers".
"Gladwell did not return a request for comment, but in summarizing his ideas for Fortune magazine in November 2008, he said Korean Air's problem at the time was not old planes or poor crew training. "What they were struggling with was a cultural legacy, that Korean culture is hierarchical," he said.
"You are obliged to be deferential toward your elders and superiors in a way that would be unimaginable in the U.S." he added. That's dangerous when it comes to modern airplanes, said Gladwell, because such sophisticated machines are designed to be piloted by a crew that works together as a team of equals, remaining unafraid to point out mistakes or disagree with a captain.
To Gladwell, this may have explained why Korean Air Flight 801 crashed into a hill while on approach to an airport in Guam in 1997, killing 223 people. In addition to a series of misfortunes, including bad weather, an offline warning system, and outdated charts, the co-pilot was afraid to question the poor judgment of the pilot, wrote Gladwell—a fatal mistake.
Similarly, Gladwell assigned blame for the 1990 crash of Avianca Flight 52 in Long Island, New York, to human error caused by cultural differences. The plane ran out of fuel while circling JFK, leading to 73 fatalities. The pilots of the Colombian airline did not assert themselves enough with air traffic control when communicating that they were running out of fuel, wrote Gladwell.
Gladwell argued that in Colombia, as in Korea, cultural norms tended to dictate that people avoid directly questioning authority—in this case, the authority of controllers who had asked the Avianca plane to keep holding."
Trechos retirados de "Could Malcolm Gladwell's Theory of Cockpit Culture Apply to Asiana Crash?"
Moratórias já somam 44 mil milhões em créditos na banca nacional https://t.co/MreA4yJINv
— Observador (@observadorpt) October 30, 2020
"many businesses use standardized metrics not realizing that these metrics lead to the market averaging syndrome: the offering of one company becomes the reflection of the offering of any of its competitors. [Moi ici: Recordar Youngme Moon em "Now, something completely different... para nos deixar a pensar"] It is a result of the fact that the standardized targets become the entrained pattern of behaviours based on the unchanging set of expectations. In other words, people at the organization stop questioning things and keep on doing the same over and over again.
Sure, standardized metrics gives the managers the perception of control of what happens at the company. It gives them the tools to provide extrinsic award and punishment system. It leads to finding the shortest and easiest way to improve the bottom-line. It provokes the thinking: — what can I do to get me the best result? — rather that thinking — what can we do to built the best value?" [Moi ici: Exactamente! Por isso, na biologia temos a mistura de genes para variar sempre alguma coisa entre gerações]
...
[Moi ici: O que se segue é muito bom!] Let me be very clear here: measurement of itself is not a wrong thing. My rant is not about having a measurement in the first place but about making it a goal or a target. It is about discarding the Goodhart’s Law:
“When a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure.”
It might be even appropriate to paraphrase that law and, following Marylin Strathern, say that: — “When a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a measure at all.” [Moi ici: Como não pensar logo em jogadas ao estilo das cativações...]
The metrics should be set up not to command and control people but to inspire and focus them."
Trechos retirados de "The traps of standardized measures"
Aplicável à sua empresa:
"We should all spend more time thinking about the prospect of failure and what we might do about it. It is a useful mental habit but it is neither easy nor enjoyable.
...
When we launch a new project we might think about prototyping, gathering data, designing small experiments and avidly searching for feedback from the people who might see what we do not.
If we expect that things will go wrong, we design our projects to make learning and adapting part of the process. When we ignore the possibility of failure, when it comes it is likely to be expensive and hard to learn from.
The third advantage of thinking seriously about failure is that we may turn away from projects that are doomed from the out-set. From the invasion of Iraq to the process of Brexit, seriously exploring the daunting prospect of disaster might have provoked the wise decision not to start in the first place."
Mas é também por causa desses que eu defendo o salário mínimo bem mais alto, para que as falências que são inevitáveis aconteçam o mais cedo possível. E que o Estado ampare isso com os recursos que forem necessários. Em vez de TAPs, em RTPs, etc., etc.
— Tiago Az. Fernandes (@taf) October 24, 2020
Tenho tanto medo de quem está cheio de certezas...
"When we are faced with a problem, we assume that all we need to do is elaborate the options, select one, and then execute. This assumes that causality is determinable and therefore that we have a valid means of eliminating options. What we mean by causality is that we can relate cause and effect; if we take a certain action, we know what the effect will be — or given an effect, we can determine what caused it. This is not always the case and we need to acknowledge that there are systems in which we can determine cause and effect and those in which we cannot. We call the former ordered and the later un-ordered systems.
In an ordered system, the system is highly constrained, the behavior is highly predictable, and the causality is either obvious from experience or can be determined by analysis. If the cause is obvious then we have a simple system, and if it is not obvious but can be determined by analysis, we say it is a complicated system as cause and effect (or determination of the cause) is separated by time.
For an un-ordered system, we cannot determine causality. However, we find that some of these systems are stable, and the constraints and behavior evolve over time through the interaction of the components.
...
We also need to acknowledge that systems are not always stable, and the state of the system may change over time. A system may be stable and predictable, but its performance degrades over time or it may simply break."
A Via Negativa tem o seu lugar.
Outro podcast simplesmente brilhante "Ep.108 - Bounding Losses With Jaffer Ali"
Com uma série de mensagens de pôr os cabelos em pé para quem o dinheiro é fácil de torrar, desde políticos até "empreendedores" que acreditam que a solução para o sucesso é o crescimento a qualquer custo.
Definitivamente não recomendado a:
Mais um relato do que se está a passar na economia do nosso vizinho e maior parceiro comercial:
"Según Adecco y el Banco de España, los salarios españoles podrían reducirse entre un 10% y un 15% en 2021 por la destrucción empresarial y caída de ingresos de aquellas que sobrevivan.
En un estudio reciente de McKinsey, reflejaba que de las más de 85.000 empresas que se han destruido desde febrero, el 83% son pequeños negocios con menos de cinco empleados. Una destrucción de empresas que viene de antes. España ha perdido más de 100.000 empresas en un año entre agosto de 2019 y 2020, es decir, casi el 7% del total." [Moi ici: Entre 2008 e 2013, perderam-se 117.000 empresas em Espanha]
Crise de saúde vira crise económica, que vira crise financeira, que vira crise social, que vira crise da economia dos direitos adquiridos: quarta vinda ...
Como escrevi em Abril: O coronavírus não muda nada, apenas acelera o que já estava em curso: previsão de 2015
Trecho retirado de "España, una destrucción de pymes sin precedentes"
Ele há coisas...
Quinta-feira, numa conversa ao final da manhã, já de saída de uma empresa de informática, alguém me chamava a atenção para o mau trabalho dos consultores que chegam a uma empresa e sem olhar para o que já existe, desatam a criar tabelas em Excel. Confesso que mentalmente também me incluí no rol dos acusados.
Ontem, ao fazer uma auditoria interna a uma empresa, percebi que havia uma grande confusão no preenchimento de uma tabela de Excel sobre compra de gases fluorados com efeito de estufa. Conversa para aqui, conversa para ali, e salta um print do Sage da empresa com todas as compras dos referidos gases em 2019 e 2020: Quando, quantidade, a quem e o número da factura. Até o valor no inventário físico de 31.12.2019.
Oportunidade de melhoria: a equipa auditora sugere que em vez de um impresso preenchido manualmente a empresa imprima, após cada inventário físico, um print do Sage para cada um dos gases com que trabalhou nesse ano.
Quantas vezes cometemos este erro de chegar com uma solução bem intencionada para implementar, sem fazer o trabalho de perceber o que é que já existe e pode ser utilizado.
Se fazem viagens de carro guardem duas ou três para ouvir na íntegra esta delícia "Ep.201 - Human to Human Alchemy In The Digital World with Rory Sutherland"
Entretanto:
"A pandemia praticamente parou o negócio. As empresas, nomeadamente as pequenas e médias, tentam adaptar-se à nova realidade, mas o contexto é extremamente desafiante. De tal forma que, de acordo com um estudo realizado pela McKinsey, mais de metade das PME europeias estão em risco de falência nos próximos 12 meses. É uma ameaça à economia da região tendo em conta que estas PME empregam dois terços dos trabalhadores europeus."
"El 50% de las pequeñas y medianas empresas cree que la supervivencia de su empresa está en riesgo y un 5% ha cerrado definitivamente o prevé hacerlo, según se desprende de la última edición del barómetro #LaPymeHabla de la Confederación Española de Organizaciones Empresariales (Cepyme).En concreto, el 92% de las empresas encuestadas ha afirmado que la situación económica actual es "mala o muy mala" y un 64% dice que las expectativas para los próximos doce meses son negativas."
Esperem até os bancos se juntarem à desgraça com o fim das moratórias...
Não pense que a sua empresa vai passar incólume. Ao contrário do ministro, prepare-se para o pior. E não adianta entrar em pânico, isso é o Eu-Criança. Agora é o tempo do Eu-Adulto.
Imaginem o impacto disto nos sectores tradicionais portugueses...
"Pero esta crisis tiene, además, otra particularidad, y es que ha transformado radicalmente los hábitos de vida de un día para otro. Uno de esos cambios que ha permanecido tras el confinamiento es el auge del teletrabajo, algo que podría tener un gran impacto en el mix de productos y servicios a los que destinan su dinero los consumidores.
Según Morgan Stanley, “cuando los consumidores trabajan desde casa, reordenan su gasto de manera similar a como lo hacen cuando se jubilan”. Tomando como ejemplo la evolución del gasto de las personas cuando pasan de trabajadores a jubilados en Estados Unidos, Morgan Stanley sostiene que tres categorías experimentan un retroceso especialmente destacable en el gasto: ropa, comida fuera de casa y transporte.
La moda es, de hecho, la categoría que pierde una mayor cuota en el gasto de los consumidores cuando se jubilan. Según datos de Morgan Stanley a partir del Bureau of Labor Statistics de Estados Unidos, cuando los trabajadores se jubilan reducen un 21% su gasto en ropa, mientras el transporte cae un 4%, el alcohol retrocede un 5% y la comida fuera de casa, un 8%. En el extremo opuesto, el gasto en salud se dispara un 118%, en artículos para el hogar se eleva un 49% y en alimentación en el hogar, un 27%.
“Mirando hacia el futuro, en un escenario donde la tasa de trabajo desde casa permanece elevada (aunque por debajo de los niveles actuales), el gasto en ropa podría desacelerarse aún más a medida que los consumidores repartan el gasto en otras categorías”, señala Morgan Stanley."
Trecho retirado de "Pide más, pero tiene menos: cómo la pandemia ha cambiado al consumidor"
Sobre Portugal não tenho vistos números deste tipo, talvez falha minha que não os sei encontrar, mas os números a que vou tendo acesso sobre Espanha revelam uma transformação brutal em curso:
"Si existe un ganador del confinamiento, ese es el comercio electrónico: en mayo, en España había un 33,5% más de compradores de moda online que en enero, frente a un 74,9% menos de compradores físicos....El resultado es que en el mix de ventas de moda en España, el canal online ha superado al físico (aunque sólo un mes) y varios operadores digitales se han posicionado en el top ten de la distribución.Si a cierre de 2019 la cuota de mercado del canal online se situó en el 9,3%, frente al 7,4% de 2018, según el Informe de la moda online en España 2020, este porcentaje se había elevado al 17% en julio, según datos de Kantar,...Si en enero el número clientes online de moda se elevó a un ritmo del 34%, en mayo el alza fue del 95%...Según el Barómetro de Empresas de Moda en España, el 51% de las compañías españolas del sector prevé reducir su red de tiendas físicas este mismo año....cinco meses después de que comenzaran a levantarse las restricciones al comercio tras el estado de alarma, más de un 15% de las tiendas de moda de España todavía no han reabierto sus puertas....Si Inditex debe prescindir de 300 establecimientos, en el conjunto del sector podrían sobrar cerca de 12.000...en los próximos años el parque de tiendas de moda en el mercado español caería por debajo de las 50.000 unidades y habría que remontarse más de veinte años atrás para encontrar una cifra tan baja....Otras previsiones son todavía más duras: por cada 1% que crece el comercio electrónico, cerrarán 13.000 tiendas. “Esto puede significar 100.000 tiendas menos hasta 2025”"
Que parvoíce de slogan... inventado por alguém protegido por direitos adquiridos.
Mais um conjunto de mensagens preciosas
"Demand-side sales is about pulling people toward progress. Flipping this lens flips the role of salesperson from icky used car salesperson to a helper. When you get away from pushing your product, you start to make people feel like you’re helping them; you’re their concierge. You’re no longer the used car salesperson. A great salesperson listens first and then helps.
...
The very foundation of demand-side sales is being helpful, empowering, curious, and creative; you must understand why people do what they do.
...
Principle #1: People buy for their own reasons. It’s more about progress than about your product or service. Your job as a salesperson is to help people make progress on their terms; it’s about more than selling and making the “almighty dollar.” Approaching sales from this mindset will set you apart as a great salesperson.
...
Principle#3 The struggle creates demand. The struggling moment is the seed for all sales. Where do people struggle? Helping people make progress is embedded in finding these struggling moments. So, find the struggling moment!
...
Myth #1: Supply creates demand; build it and they will buy it. No, the product does not create demand. [Moi ici: Quantas vezes ouvem os políticos dizerem-nos o contrário?] However well-meaning your aspirations, they are not enough to sell your product and cause people to make the necessary tradeoffs. People want to be their definition of best, not yours. It’s about fitting your product into their life by understanding the progress they are trying to make.
...
Myth #3: Sales is about convincing people, and you can convince anyone to do anything. Salespeople don’t convince people to buy, people convince themselves. They buy for their own reasons. The customer defines the value. You need understand them first, and then your product and how it fits into their lives."
Trechos retirados de “Demand-Side Sales 101: Stop Selling and Help Your Customers Make Progress” de Bob Moesta.
Ao longo dos anos tenho aqui relatado a minha experiência e preocupação com a lentidão da mudança nas empresas portuguesas. Por exemplo, falta de fogo no rabo.
Também por isso receio o efeito dos lay-off: uma pausa que não pressiona as empresas a reformarem-se. Na verdade: Não vai ser nenhum 'lay-off' que as vai preparar para essa transição.
Por isso, assim que ouvi este trecho até me arrepiei:
"The COVID-19 pandemic has changed many aspects of business, but one thing that hasn’t changed is the urgent need for companies to transform. In fact, the crisis has underscored that need. Most organizations have already launched rapid measures in response to the situation. The challenge now is to build on these measures and develop longer-term, comprehensive initiatives to reposition the company for the future—which may feel like a permanent state of emergency."
Daqui, "How Transformative CEOs Lead in a Crisis":
"many companies across industries and geographic markets now need to stabilize revenue, unlock growth through new digital sales channels, and reduce costs.
...
Because the pace of change in business has accelerated, companies can no longer spend six months plotting a transformation and then several years implementing it. Instead, companies need to take immediate steps to begin delivering results, send cash to the bottom line, and fund future initiatives.
Top-performing organizations don’t rely on just cost cuts to free up capital—instead, they also improve capital efficiency and deliver quick wins to boost revenue.
...
To be clear, cost reductions are often a critical step, but they can never stand alone. Over the long term, revenue growth has a greater impact on transformation success—contributing, on average, nearly half of cumulative value creation after five years.[Moi ici: Ainda na sexta-feira passada tive conversa com empresa que passou pela redução dos custos. E debatemos várias alternativas para aprender com os 4/5 clientes novos que ganharam nos últimos dois anos para perceber como procurar ainda mais clientes para aumentar vendas]
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[Moi ici: Outra tema abordado nessa mesma conversa. O meu velho exemplo de Zapatero] New CEOs perform better in transformations. In fact, a new CEO can boost the odds of a successful transformation by 7 percentage points, on average. Why do new CEOs perform better? Because they take an outsider’s view of the business, with no legacy bias, and they are willing to take bold steps to shake up established ways of thinking.
Incumbent CEOs and management teams, therefore, cannot afford to be complacent and maintain the status quo. Instead, they must be somewhat paranoid and continuously take a fresh look at the business. Or, as we say, “If it ain’t broke, fix it anyway.”"
