Não é uma previsão, é algo que já está a acontecer.

 No DN de 27.12.2023 encontrei este artigo de opinião, "O retumbante sucesso do friendshoring americano":

"Na sequência de uma ordem executiva de 2021 do presidente dos EUA, instruindo a sua Administração a realizar uma revisão das principais cadeias de abastecimento dos EUA, a secretária do Tesouro dos EUA, falando no Atlantic Council, em abril de 2022, anunciou uma nova abordagem da Administração Biden para navegar numa economia global mais adversa a interesses americanos, chamando-a de friendshoring.

...

Esta nova política estado-unidense de busca de cadeias de abastecimento mais resilientes entre parceiros de confiança, através de friendshoring, tem um principal destinatário - a China e as empresas chinesas - e tem-se traduzido em iniciativas como a adoção do CHIPS and Science Act, que têm sido complementadas por outras como o US-EU Trade and Technology Council (TTC), o Minerals Security Partnership (MSP), o Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity (IPEF), e a America's Partnership for Economic Prosperity, para "interagir com parceiros confiáveis" e "reduzir as dependências de fontes não-confiáveis de fornecimento estratégico".

...

No plano do comércio externo, o friendshoring aparenta ser um retumbante sucesso. Em menos de dois anos, o México e o Canadá (friendshoring+ nearshoring) ultrapassaram a China como principais fornecedores de bens dos EUA em cadeias de abastecimento diversificadas. As importações dos EUA da China caem 25% no primeiro semestre de 2023; desde 2019, o superavit comercial bilateral do México com os EUA aumentou 40%. A China é agora apenas o terceiro maior fornecedor dos EUA. De acordo com alguns, o aumento das importações dos países vizinhos e parceiros na NAFTA reflete mudanças na procura dos consumidores e na diversificação da cadeia de abastecimento liderada pela pandemia.

As estatísticas mostram também que as exportações chinesas para países que estão a subir no ranking de fontes de importação dos EUA estão a aumentar. O fenómeno não é inédito. Temos vindo a assistir ao desvio comercial de produtos ocidentais para a Rússia através da Ásia Central. A extraordinária coincidência de aumento de fluxos de exportações da China para o México e o Canadá e destes dois países para os EUA leva um articulista da Bloomberga sugerir que as empresas chinesas estão a redirecionar boa parte das suas exportações. Quando ficar claro em Washington que o brilhante plano de friendshoring gera redirecionamento de produtos exportados por empresas chinesas para os EUA via México (e Canadá), é bem possível que tal gere uma nova onda de reação protecionista americana."

Há exactamente uma semana, a diretora comercial de uma empresa de fabrico de máquinas, todas destinadas à exportação, contactou-me para discutir o seu excelente ano. Ela partilhou o sucesso crescente no mercado norte-americano. Recordando que os conheci quando exploravam a América Latina e Sul, inquiri sobre as vendas e presença em países como Chile, El Salvador e México. Ela revelou que um cliente mexicano lhe mencionou a intenção de abrir uma fábrica nos EUA, visando contornar a legislação americana que visa limitar importações do México, devido à recente instalação de empresas chinesas aproveitando a política mencionada no artigo.

Não é uma previsão, é algo que já está a acontecer.

"hay que construir nuevas cadenas de aprovisionamiento regionalizadas” (parte III)

Parte I e parte II.

O impacte destas restrições na aceleração da revolução que já estava em curso, traduzido no reshoring:

• Hong Kong pode ficar em confinamento até 2024
• Año nuevo chino: más tensión para el ‘sourcing’ y el consumo al ralentí

Isto vai provocar uma mudança abrupta no paradigma vigente. Que implicações serão sentidas? Como as poderemos aproveitar?

"hay que construir nuevas cadenas de aprovisionamiento regionalizadas” (parte II)

Part I 

"Splits are emerging in corporate America's response to a supply chain crisis which growing numbers of executives expect to last all year, heralding a wave of spending on new capacity, better data, and support for weaker vendors.

This earnings season, companies have complained of shortages, delays, and spiking costs in a quarter in which they scrambled to procure semiconductors, were left waiting for components and suffered the effects of suppliers' staffing gaps.

...

The pandemic has pushed manufacturers to redesign their supply chains in favor of certainty of supply and locating inventory closer to customers.

...

Companies including VF Corp, the clothing group behind The North Face, said they had moved some production to suppliers closer to their biggest markets.

...

Companies with more domestic suppliers and those that had moved before the pandemic o broaden their supply chains were faring better than others with more complex, global logistics, said Tim Ryan, chair of PwC US. mid-January survey of US executives by PwC found that less than half expected supply chain disruptions to ease by the end of the year, and more than 60 percent planned to raise prices in response.

...

“The engineers have designed supply chains around predictability and when that predictability goes away everything goes to hell in a handbasket,” he told the FT.

“Most companies are realising that they over-tuned their operation for performance versus resilience,”"

Trechos retirados "Winners and losers emerge from lingering US supply chain crisis"

"hay que construir nuevas cadenas de aprovisionamiento regionalizadas”

"La cadena de suministro sigue sumando costes. Las continuas interrupciones en la supply chain podrían suponer pérdidas de entre 9.000 millones de dólares y 17.000 millones de dólares en para la industria norteamericana de la confección y el calzado en 2022

...

En los últimos doce meses, entre los aumentos de costes que sufrieron los sectores de la confección y el calzado en Norteamérica se incluyen el incremento del precio del algodón, que aumentó en un 40%, el de los contenedores marítimos, que se disparó un 300%, el transporte aéreo, con un alza del 50%, y por carretera, que se incrementó en un 20%. 

Todo esto, sumado a la escasez de la mano de obra, repercutió en los salarios de los trabajadores de la logística, el almacenamiento y la venta al por menor, contribuyendo, aún más, a los gastos de todas las industrias en términos generales.

...

“Hay diversas prácticas que se pueden llevar a cabo para que las cadenas de suministro sean más resistentes”, señaló Brian Ehrig, socio de Kearney en Nueva York, en un comunicado. “Lo primero es poner el foco en aquellos aspectos que se pueden controlar como nuevas estrategias de aprovisionamiento y una gestión más rigurosa del inventario”, añadió Ehrig.

“A largo plazo, las empresas mejoran su capacidad de resistencia mediante la deslocalización; para que la cadena de suministro sea menos vulnerable, hay que construir nuevas cadenas de aprovisionamiento regionalizadas”, sostuvo. 

A su vez, la creación de plataformas para generar sinergias también podría generar un impacto positivo en la agilización de la supply chain de empresas de confección y calzado, especialmente reduciendo los costes de la cartera de productos cuando se produzca una interrupción en la cadena."

Trechos retirados de "Estados Unidos: las pérdidas por la rotura de la ‘supply chain’ podrían alcanzar 17.000 millones en 2022"

O backshoring do calçado em Espanha

Um artigo interessante sobre a evolução do offshoring e backshoring do calçado espanhol. "Offshoring in the Spanish footwear industry: A return journey?" de Carmen Martínez-Mora e Fernando Merino, publicado por Journal of Purchasing & Supply Management 20 (2014) 225–237.

O crescimento do backshoring é um tema querido a este blogue desde quando ainda ninguém falava nele (2006 e 2010, por exemplo).

Um artigo que documenta as observações que fomos fazendo aqui sobrea a evolução portuguesa. Com uma diferença. Espanha tem marcas com tradição e dimensão e fez deslocalizações. Portugal sempre foi mais terra de subcontratação. No entanto, as razões que levaram ao regresso dos clientes em Portugal, são as mesmas que levaram ao retorno de parte da produção espanhola à Europa.

BTW, lembram-se das previsões de quem não andava no terreno? Dois exemplos: Sérgio Figueiredo no Jornal de Negócios e André Macedo no Diário de Notícias)

"During the 1990'0 and the first decade of the twenty-first century, outsourcing and offshoring became one of the most important changes made by companies throughout the world. Many companies outsourced tasks which were formerly internalised in order to gain competitiveness through reduced costs or increased flexibility or efficiency. Meanwhile, many activities located in developed countries were transferred to other places; production processes were no longer geographically concentrated in one location but were split up into phases which were each located where the advantages to be gained were greatest.
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However, in more recent years, it has come to light that this relocation of production activities is being reconsidered by some industry leaders which has given rise to cases of "repatriating manufacturing to the country of origin". These cases have been called 'reverse offshoring', 'reshoring, 'backshoring', insourcing' or inshoring as opposed to outsourcing/offshoring.
...

Three of the four comapnies that have not offshore their production justify this with one main reason: the range of footwear that they produce. The fourth company explained that it was due to the size of the firm. Table 3 summarises the character-istics of these companies. The three companies (Wonders, Pedro Mirages and NordikaT) manufacture only one type of footwear, the mid-high range, and have not considered the possibility of extending their collection with lower-end lines. To produce this type of footwear, highly-skilled labour is required and the companies do not believe that they would be able to maintain the high quality levels that they achieve in Spain if they produced their output in low-wage countries. As production is located in the company's own factory or outsourced to other factories nearby, the company is able to control the entire manufacturing process and guarantee the desired quality levels. These companies commented that they benefit from lower transaction costs due to the geographical proximity (which goes hand-to-hand with more fluid relationships) to the companies that carry out the production activities.
...
The fourth company that has not offshored production, Pedro Iniesta - Biostep, provides qualitatively different reasons for this decision. This company's product can be classified within the mid-range, and competes basically on price. As we shall see later, most of the offshoring in this segment was motivated by efficiency reasons (the search for alternative locations to Spain that provide comparative advantages in production costs). The location that offered the lowest costs was Southeast Asia, particularly China. The manufacturing structure of the sector in China requires large batches to be ordered and Pedro Iniesta - Biostep, due to its small size, could not order these large volumes, and continued to manufacture all of its production in Spain. The company has been able to maintain its presence in the domestic and export markets although with a reduction in sales. Other similar firms (with mid-range footwear which did not offshore their production), were not able to survive the price competition of footwear manufactured in countries with lower costs causing them to close during the last ten years.[Moi ici: A mesma mortandade que ocorreu por cá e que descrevemos graficamente em "O emplastro iluminado"]
...
When Spain joined the EEC in 1986 and any remaining trade barriers with the member countries were dismantled, the position of Spanish footwear companies did not weaken. This was because the strategy widely used at that time consisted in abandoning the low-range lines which many companies had produced in the past and. specialising in another type of higher range footwear with greater differentiation and value added. This strategy enabled them to compete in the European markets and to maintain their share of the domestic market based on elements other than price. As could be expected, during these years, many footwear manufacturers that produced low-range products and competed on price closed down.
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However, in the mid-1990s, when China was negotiating for membership in the World Trade Organisation, Spanish companies became concerned about the future threat to their positioning. The incorporation of China would lead to a huge increase in exports to Europe of the shoes produced by the foreign multinationals in the sector, mainly from Europe and America, which offshored their production to Southeast Asia? This output was characterised by highly competitive prices and a moderate level of quality due to the comparative advantages in production costs, especially labour. and the enormous scale of this industry in some countries. Responding to these structural changes in the industry, the majority of the larger Alicante-based footwear companies began a process of offshoring production to Southeast Asia between the end of the 1990s and the beginning of the 2000s.
...
The aim of the companies that outsourced the production of their mid-range lines abroad was to obtain the highest possible growth in sales, based on the increased price competitiveness derived from the lower costs in foreign countries. The revenue obtained from this growth was used to increase investment in those activities carried out within the companies in Spain, such as design, product innovation, marketing, distribution. quality control and the manufacture of high quality footwear. With this strategy, these activities became the core business and internal departments were created or expanded and had a strategic role.
...
Panamá Jack and Ras Shoes encountered problems in developing their offshoring strategy due to the type of their output and the characteristics of the industrial structure of the foreign country. Problems arose because they only made small orders and their high and mid-high ranges of footwear required the almost permanent presence of highly qualified technical and managerial staff to supervise quality levels. These companies concluded that offshoring production to China was only profitable if large orders were made as the costs involved in transferring staff were too high for small quantities. Also, large volumes of stock were permanently accumulated in Spain as the minimum quantifies established by the foreign countries were not compatible with the sales of the companies which comprised small quantities of a wide range of models. For these reasons both companies abandoned the strategy and have reshored all of their production activities to Spain and have no intention of manufacturing abroad again.
...

...
The main differences between firms reside in the relationship between the current strategy and the decisions previously made with regard to offshoring. Those companies that order small quantities have reshored all of their production to Spain. However, those that order larger quantities are increasing their manufacturing operations in Spain or nearby countries but complementing this with offshoring and have no intention to abandon this strategy. Summing up, the different "reshoring" strategies observed can be explained by three main reasons. First, the volumes that are outsourced abroad; second, the type of product that is offshored; and third, the improvement in distribution which is also related to volume but also to lead times. From a more general perspective, our results show that reshoring in the footwear industry does not constitute a correction of prior misjudgements.
...
First, the cost differential between China and Spain has narrowed due to the evolution of the economies of Southeast Asia. In addition, the demand for smaller batches makes it difficult to exploit scale economies in China or even to gain access to the Chinese shoemakers at a reasonable price. Second, transportation costs have become a key element in this case not because of changes in traditional issues linked to logistics,  but because the demand of the final goods has changed. This new demand introduces conditions (lead times, batch sizes. etc.) that the existing logistic structure does not cater for and even seems to evolve in the opposite direction with the introduction of steam shipping, larger vessels, etc.
...
From the results of the study, we can conclude that the reshoring process most likely constitutes a permanent relocation of footwear manufacturing in Spain. This strategy has increased the competitiveness of firms engaged in the mid-range footwear segment and can be expected to prevail in the long term as it fulfils the need to serve new collections with greater frequency. However, if Spanish unit labour costs rise, these increases in production in Spain could be redirected to other nearby countries such as Morocco or Portugal where batch size is not important In any case, the results of the study indicate that part of the offshoring wave should be undone."

Frequência e motivos para o backshoring

Um artigo sobre o backshoring na Europa: "Backshoring of production activities in European manufacturing" de Bernhard Dachsa, Steffen Kinkelb, Angela Jägerc e Iztok Palčičd, publicado pelo Journal of Purchasing and Supply Management.

A vantagem destes artigos é recolherem informação com base em empresas reais (amostra de 2450 empresas apenas) e não com base em especulação. A mim, ajuda-me a calibrar as ideias. Por vezes, valorizo mais ou menos um factor e estes artigos chegam e obrigam-me a reformular e a dar mais peso a uns factores e menos a outros.

Olhando para os dados.

"4.1. Frequency of backshoringIn the countries covered by the EMS 2015, 4.3% of all firms have moved production activities back to the home country between 2013 and mid-2015. The sample includes 105 backshoring firms; these are more observations than most empirical papers on backshoring can provide, but, nevertheless, it makes backshoring a rare event. The highest shares of backshoring firms are reported from Spain (7.9%)
...
We can distinguish further between backshoring from suppliers and backshoring from own subsidiaries. 1.7% of the firms have backshored from suppliers, while 2.6% backshored from their own subsidiaries abroad. In a sectoral perspective, the share of backshoring firms is lowest in low-technology industries such as paper, wood, food and beverages, or textiles, and highest in high-technology industries. However, offshoring frequency also rises with technology intensity,
...
Further descriptive results show that backshoring frequency rises steadily with firm size, from around 2% in small firms with less than 50 employees to 7% in large firms with more than 1000 employees. However, offshoring frequency also rises with firm size, making backshoring simply more probable in large firms, as they have previously more often offshored manufacturing activities.

...

4.3. Motives for backshoringThe most frequent reasons for backshoring of production activities are a lack of flexibility and poor quality, which are both named by more than half of the firms. Unemployed capacity at home takes the third rank with 42%, followed by transportation and coordination costs (24% and 22%) and labour costs (15%). Quality and flexibility show a high consistency as backshoring motives over time, as they have also been the most important reasons for backshoring in the 2012 EMS survey. Innovation-related factors play a minor role as backshoring motives. The perceived loss of know-how in the source country (2%) and the vicinity to R&D capacities at the home base (5%) are the least frequent motives for backshoring of manufacturing activities.
...
Firms move production activities back to the home country mostly because of a lack of flexibility, quality problems, and low capacity utilization. Rising labour costs in source countries as a motive to backshore production are, so far, just in sixth place, right behind transportation and coordination costs. The motives for backshoring are heavily dependent on the source country.
...
hightech firms are backshoring more frequently, as superior products and quality are inevitable for these firms. They seem to find it difficult to “slice” the value chains for their hightech products vertically into different components, and, therefore, prefer to organise and control them under their own governance in close vicinity to their parent plants, providing additional insights for transaction cost and internalization economics of backshoring activities
...
The importance of a production relocation strategy to low-wage countries seems to be diminishing, and local manufacturing strategies seem to be gaining in importance. The reasons to strengthen local manufacturing are, in a way, similar to the main backshoring motives: To reduce complexity and coordination of global supply chains, to provide customised products and services in a flexible and agile way, to adapt to increasing labour costs in emerging countries and the rapid pace of innovations in ICT and advanced manufacturing technologies towards smart and digital factories."

Em curso o fim da globalização

Outro sintoma do refluxo da globalização, do reshoring, do fim da China como fábrica do mundo, do advento de Mongo e do aumento da importância da proximidade, da co-criação, da interacção, da preferência, "Eurozone Manufacturing Adds Jobs at Fastest Pace in 20 Years":

"The eurozone’s economic recovery maintained its recent, stronger momentum in May as the currency area’s manufacturing sector added jobs at the fastest pace in 20 years while German businesses were more optimistic than at any time since 1991."

Sintomas

Outro sintoma do reshoring em curso.

Há muitos anos, 1989(?), visitei as instalações novinhas da United Technologies Automotive UTA) em Valongo. Depois, a UTA transformou-se em Lear Corporation e em Portugal chegou a ter várias fábricas (pelo menos Valongo e uma outra no Alto Minho). Depois, como muitas outras multinacionais, a Lear Corporation saiu de Portugal porque era já um país muito caro.
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Agora, fazendo recordar o "Turn, turn, turn" a Lear Corporation compra o negócio dos assentos automóveis da Antolin "Antolín confirma la venta de su división de asientos a la norteamericana Lear" e regressa a Portugal:

"Lear Corporation ha confirmado esta mañana la compra de toda la división de asientos del Grupo Antolín por un importe aproximado de 286 millones de euros (libre de deuda), como adelantó FARO el pasado sábado en exclusiva. La operación, que se cerrará este semestre y necesita el ok de las autoridades de competencia, afecta a las plantas de Vigo, Porriño, Valença y Mangualde, esta última aún en construcción. En total, la transacción incluye 12 plantas (la mayoría en Europa), dos centros tecnológicos y 2.273 trabajadores."

Recordar os recentes "Sintomas" e "Reshoring".

A China é tão, tão grande que foi um tsunami violento que limpou o low cost transaccionável no Ocidente. Agora essa onda está a recuar e a recuar e a recuar.

E a provocar o nascimento de um mundo novo com cenas destas cada vez mais comuns.

"o impacte da "reversão" da maré da globalização"

Do outro lado do Atlântico, o impacte da "reversão" da maré da globalização no México "Despite fears, Mexico's manufacturing boom is lifting U.S. workers".
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O que sai da China, porque a China ficou mais cara e por causa da necessidade de cadeias de fornecimento mais curtas e, por isso, mais ágeis, está a regressar ao México, aos estados do sul dos Estados Unidos e à Europa, de acordo com a tradição industrial de cada país.

"assumimos uma série de verdades sem as questionar ou testar"

Há tempos, num workshop, um formando surpreendeu-me ao dizer que trabalhava numa empresa que injectava peças plásticas em quantidades industriais em que o factor crítico era o preço e eram mais competitivos que os chineses.
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Certamente algo relacionado com isto "Is This Water Bottle A Symbol Of A 'Made In The USA' Revolution?":

"“At the trade shows we’d ask vendors, ‘Why don’t you manufacture in the United States?’” she recalls. The answer was always money. “They’d say, ‘If anyone tells you they can be price-competitive and manufacture in the U.S., they’re full of crap!’ But I knew that was just the assumption, and I knew they were wrong.”"

Todos nós, a começar por mim, emprenhamos pelo ouvido, assumimos uma série de verdades sem as questionar ou testar.
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Recuo a Maio de 2006 e a O regresso dos clientes e aos seus gráficos.

O efeito do banhista gordo (parte II)

Lembram-se de "O efeito do banhista gordo"?
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E que tal "Cambodian factories grapple with underage worker issue"?

"In the first 10 months of this year, the value of the country’s garment exports rose 20 per cent to US$4.61 billion (S$5.85 billion) over the previous year, according to the Commerce Ministry. The rapid growth makes it harder to find enough workers and the increase in global demand has fuelled unhappiness over working conditions."

As hipóteses de substituir a China vão esgotar-se rapidamente.
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Recordar "Ligações"

Ligações

Isto "Multinacional vai investir em Paredes e criar 250 empregos" onde se pode ler:

"O sector têxtil de Paredes vai ter 250 novos postos de trabalho a partir de Janeiro, anunciou fonte da autarquia.
Uma multinacional do ramo vai investir três milhões de euros na criação de uma unidade para produção de vestuário e confecção, na freguesia de Vilela."

Conjuga bem com isto "Moeda chinesa bate novo recorde face ao dólar norte-americano":

"Desde o início do ano, o yuan apreciou cerca de 3% contra o dólar norte-americano, e, desde 2005, já valorizou 30%.
.
Nos últimos cinco anos, a moeda chinesa também valorizou cerca de 30% face ao euro. Pelas cotações do banco central chinês, hoje, um euro valia 8,38.84 yuan, quando, em dezembro de 2004, a moeda única europeia chegou a valer 11,284 yuan.
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A acentuada desvalorização do euro relativamente ao yuan começou em 2011, coincidindo com o agravamento da crise da dívida soberana na Europa."

Estas multinacionais são as mais espertas, são as primeiras e, por isso, conseguem isto:

"O anúncio parte de fonte da autarquia, que garante apoios indirectos, ao nível fiscal, à empresa com sede em Paços de Ferreira."

Quando as atrasadas chegarem já não haverá "apoios indirectos"
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Recordar o recente “This industry doesn’t have a future in China”

“This industry doesn’t have a future in China”

"Now, with labor and other costs rising at home, Chinese textile entrepreneurs are looking east over the Pacific and wondering whether it’s time to move back
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“This industry doesn’t have a future in China,” said Zhu Shanqing, chairman of Keer Group. “It’s not just been difficult to grow, but it’s difficult to survive.”
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Mr. Zhu is chairman and founder of Keer Group Co., which has agreed to invest $218 million to build a yarn-spinning factory in Lancaster Country, South Carolina. The factory will in part use the German-made machines Keer has been running in Hangzhou for the last 10 years.
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Mr. Zhu–who sports a bowl haircut that seems at odds with his otherwise natty style of dress and who has a thing for French red wines–said the decision to relocate some of his company’s production to the U.S. is due to “constantly rising” production costs at home.
...
Mr. Zhu considered Vietnam, Pakistan and India, but currency volatility—and the lack of financial tools to hedge foreign exchange risks—in those economies steered him toward the U.S.
...
He estimates that costs for one South Carolina worker are about six times more than one in China, but that the difference could shrink to three times by 2015.
...
A major saving will come from what the firm pays for cotton.(Moi ici: Assim que o Grande Planeador entra, começa a borrada que só se repercute anos depois) ... Beijing imposes tariffs that can run as high on 40% on imports. Imports are also limited by quotas. That’s resulted in cotton selling at higher prices in China than the rest of the world.
...
Other Chinese textile firms in the Hangzhou area are also looking at the viability of producing in the U.S., said Mr. Zhu: “Our neighbors are definitely watching us.”

Trechos retirados de "Why One Chinese Textile Maker Sees His Future in the U.S."

Um mundo de oportunidades a abrir-se em tantos e tantos sectores

Primeira citação:

"As exportações que representam 85% das vendas e são dominadas pelo mercado europeu têm beneficiado da subida dos custos de produção na Ásia e do consequente aumento das encomendas feitas em Portugal pelos produtores de café que fornecem chávenas aos seus clientes." 

Segunda citação:

"À boleia da “deschinização” francesa, a Artwear aposta na conceção e produção em Portugal. As canecas e chávenas são produzidas pela Spal e os lápis pela Viarco, por exemplo.
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Segundo os gestores da Artwear, sem fundamentalismos, um dos desígnios da empresa é a sua portugalidade. Um facto que é, aliás, apreciado pelos franceses: “É ordem do Estado francês só contratar a compra de produtos na União Europeia. Eles estão a fazer a ‘deschinização’, não compram nada à China. Nós desenvolvemos um logótipo 100% produzido em Portugal e os franceses pediram-nos para aumentar o tamanho desse logótipo nas embalagens dos produtos”, explicaram Luís Pilar e Duarte Lukas."

Terceira citação:

"China lleva su producción textil a Estados Unidos. Después de tres décadas trasladando la fabricación de artículos textiles de Occidente a Oriente, la deslocalización industrial cambia el sentido. El tejedor chino Keer Group construirá una planta para la producción de hilo de algodón en la localidad de Lancaster County, en Carolina del Sur (Estados Unidos), que dará empleo a 500 trabajadores." 

Curiosidade do dia

"China lleva su producción textil a Estados Unidos. Después de tres décadas trasladando la fabricación de artículos textiles de Occidente a Oriente, la deslocalización industrial cambia el sentido. El tejedor chino Keer Group construirá una planta para la producción de hilo de algodón en la localidad de Lancaster County, en Carolina del Sur (Estados Unidos), que dará empleo a 500 trabajadores."

Trecho retirado de "El tejedor chino Keer Group deslocaliza a Estados Unidos y abre una planta con 500 empleados"

Recordar Lawrence... nada está escrito (parte XX)

"Se ainda têm as vossas fábricas abertas, mantenham-nas assim"

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Os encalhados, se estivessem atentos ao fluxo dos acontecimentos...

Recordar Lawrence... nada está escrito (parte XIX)

Há um postal de Greg Satell que recordo muitas vezes "Why Trends Are For Suckers". Sempre que alguém pega na evolução de um fenómeno vivo, um fenómeno não-newtoniano, e, com base no passado, projecta o futuro como uma continuação imperturbável desse passado... murmuro na minha visão do contra, "Trends Are For Suckers".
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Há meses que uso o título "Recordar Lawrence... nada está escrito" um pouco na mesma linha. Os que pegam no passado para prever o futuro, muito para lá do prazo de validade de uma previsão, assumem que o que se passou, que o que aconteceu no passado ficou escrito e será repetido para todo o sempre... tolice pegada.
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Hoje li:

• "How U.S. Lost Out on iPhone Work" (que aliás recomendo a todos os caviares que exibem os seus brinquedos da Apple)
• "A tale of Apple, the iPhone, and overseas manufacturing"
• "New York Times Tells Us Only Chinese Near Slave Labor Could Handle Steve Jobs’ Demands"

E fiquei admirado, ou talvez não, por nem uma única vez ter encontrado uma referência à insustentabilidade de manter este regime de trabalho no futuro, por nem uma única vez ter encontrado uma referência às novas tendências que vou encontrando no terreno, em Portugal, nas nossas indústrias tradicionais. 

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Em Mongo sempre existirão algumas Apples, por Apples rotulo empresas grandes que fazem milhões de unidades todas iguais para vender em todo o mundo, sejam de produtos inovadores, sejam de produtos maduros. Contudo, a maioria da economia será dominada pela diversidade, pelas tribos, pelas ondas, pelas modas, pelo desejo intenso de individualização.

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Por isso, também hoje li, e faz tudo parte do mesmo filme:

• "China No Match for Dutch Plants as Philips Shavers Come Home" e não estamos a falar de salários europeus baixos, estamos a falar do sétimo exportador mundial, estamos a falar do grande sucesso que é a economia holandesa.
• "The End of the China Cycle" relatório que sistematiza tanto do que temos escrito aqui no blogue e que temos sentido nos últimos anos nas PMEs exportadoras em Portugal

"China has rapidly grown to become the world leader in low cost manufacturing and is poised to become the  largest manufacturing in the world.

Much of the rapid growth can be attributed to the abundance of low cost labor which attracted large amounts of foreign direct investment and trade.

The large investments led to China becoming the central hub to low end, labor intense, and low value add product manufacturing.

Right now, the value proposition for many firms in China is disappearing as the competitive cost advantage is beginning to erode relative to other countries.

In addition, government policy and social issues are further compounding the complexity of doing business in China.

Many firms are now questioning the future of low cost manufacturing in China, in result, looking to define a new manufacturing footprint strategy."

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Entretanto por cá, os encalhados que não devem visitar uma PME exportadora há anos continuam a advogar a saída do euro... para salvar a economia nacional... quando, algures este ano, tivermos um saldo positivo na balança comercial falaremos sobre os bentos e o peso dos combustíveis e lubrificantes nessa balança comercial.

Recordar Lawrence... nada está escrito (parte XVIII)

• "Waiting for the China shoe to drop"
• "CHEAP LABOR INDUSTRIES IN CHINA AND THE END OF CHEAP LABOR IN CHINA"
• "Louisville's GE plants exemplify wage shift"
• "World's Factory... Shutting Down???"

Quem se deixa dominar pelos problemas não tem tempo para apreciar as oportunidades

Os académicos, os políticos e a nomenklatura da CIP não percebem estas coisas:
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"Made in America: Small Businesses Buck the Offshoring Trend":
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"For US firms, the decision to manufacture overseas has long seemed a no-brainer. Labor costs in China and other developing nations have been so cheap that as recently as two or three years ago, anyone who refused to offshore was viewed as a dinosaur, certain to go extinct as bolder companies built the future in Asia. But stamping out products in Guangdong Province is no longer the bargain it once was, and US manufacturing is no longer as expensive. As the labor equation has balanced out, companies—particularly the small to medium-size businesses that make up the innovative guts of America’s technology industry—are taking a long, hard look at the downsides of extending their supply chains to the other side of the planet.

“Companies are looking to base their decisions on more than just costs,” says Simon Ellis, head of supply-chain strategies practice at IDC Manufacturing Insights, a market research firm. “They’re looking to shorten lead times, to reduce the inventory they have to carry.” When accounting giant KPMG International recently asked 196 senior executives to list their top concerns for 2011 and 2012, labor costs ranked below product quality and fluctuations in shipping rates and currency values. And 19 percent of the companies that responded to an October survey by MFG.com, an online sourcing marketplace, said they had recently brought all or part of their manufacturing back to North America from overseas, up from 12 percent in the first quarter of 2010. This is one reason US factories managed to add 136,000 jobs last year—the first increase in manufacturing employment since 1997."
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"A January 2010 survey by the consulting firm Grant Thornton found that 44 percent of responders felt they got no benefit from going overseas, while another 7 percent believed that offshoring had actually caused them harm." (Moi ici: Lembro-me de Ventoro...(gráfico da página 16 que coloquei neste postal)").
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Se não fossemos um país socialista podíamos, neste canto ocidental da Europa, aproveitar esta boleia para criar as condições para o renascer da pequena indústria que pode servir parte da Europa... Talvez a Eslováquia o faça...
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E andam os académicos preocupados com o euro... num país que em poucos anos, com uma moeda fraca e salários baixos teve duas ajudas do FMI.

Backshoring... I told you so!!!

Já o escrevi neste blogue esta semana e, hoje volto a repeti-lo.

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Estou optimista!!!

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Não falo do orçamento e dessas coisas que interessam muito a quem vive ligado ao Estado, isso a mim só me preocupa por causa do saque que os normandos inventam e fazem.

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Falo da economia de bens transaccionáveis, falo da micro-economia.

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Medo dos chineses? No way!!!

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Ao longo dos anos, neste blogue, assumimos o nosso dever missionário de divulgar que existem alternativas ao negócio do preço mais baixo, alternativas que geram maior valor acrescentado e maiores produtividades, sem o choradinho do costume de querer fechar o portão do proteccionismo.

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Basta combater onde podemos fazer a diferença!

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A revista strategy+business publica um artigo sobre o tema do regresso da manufactura aos Estados Unidos: "The Case for Backshoring":

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"raised the possibility that U.S. manufacturers are getting serious about “backshoring” some of the production they shifted overseas in the wholesale offshoring movement that started in earnest in the 1990s.
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Backshoring is primarily an American phenomenon, because U.S. manufacturers have been much more aggressive about outsourcing than their Asian or European counterparts. Japanese companies experimented with outsourcing high-end items to factories in Southeast Asia and China, but quickly changed course after growing concerned about the loss of intellectual property and about disrupting the link between research and manufacturing. (Moi ici: Como o exemplo da Canon que apresentámos em 2006. Basta recorrer a esta Pedra de Roseta) As a result, Japanese companies generally farm out only the manufacturing of commodity products.
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But the logic behind backshoring is compelling enough that it cannot be easily dismissed as a mere short-term aberration. (Moi ici: Claro, basta escolher uma proposta de valor que privilegie a rapidez, a flexibilidade, a pequena série, a grande variedade. Depois, deixar as consequências dessa escolha borbulharem e surgirem naturalmente. Depois, ainda, fazer batota, forçar o que nos pode dar vantagem competitiva sustentada) Higher transportation costs as well as rising wages and raw materials prices in China, inevitable by-products of the huge gains that the developing country’s GDP has made despite the global recession, have frightened some U.S. companies away from Asia.

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NCR’s decision to backshore goes well beyond dollars and cents — and, in fact, may provide the most convincing rationale for the gains that backshoring can produce. The ATMs being made in Columbus now are NCR’s most sophisticated, capable of scanning checks and cash and eliminating the need for the customer to fill out a deposit slip. This feature has provided a welcome revenue lift for NCR — bringing in as much as US$50 million a year, significant for a company with $5 billion in annual sales. But these machines likely never would have been developed had large customers like JPMorgan Chase and Bank of America not persistently prodded NCR to move in that direction. That type of potentially profitable interaction between NCR and its customers is difficult, and launching desirable new products is slowed considerably, NCR’s Dorsman says, when the manufacturing facilities are offshore. “We take our cue from our customers,” says Dorsman. “They are heavily involved in the development process. And with this new approach we’re taking, we can get innovative products to the market faster, no question.”
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Backshoring will be more prevalent at the high end of the technology spectrum, in industries such as telecommunications and health care that are sensitive to quality and fast product cycles or in cases in which companies feel they can profit from getting immediate and ongoing feedback from U.S. customers."

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Alguns postais, só a título de exemplo, sobre o regresso dos clientes, sobre o backshoring, sobre o fim das linhas de montagem, sobre a importância da proximidade: aqui, aqui, aqui, aqui, aqui, aqui e aqui.