Sintomas de um mundo em mudança

Sintomas de um mundo em mudança:

• A Deluge of Batteries Is About to Rewire the Power Grid (Interessante cada vez mais ver referências a algo sobre o qual comecei a escrever há vários anos "And the end of utility companies as we know them")
• Refashioning clothing’s environmental impact
• Baby Amazons take on their American role model
• China scrambles to stem manufacturing exodus as 50 companies leave

Curiosidade do dia

Conheço uma empresa com uma dívida de mais de 15 mil milhões de euros.
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Este artigo, "Repent! Repent! Grid Parity is Nigh!", cheira-me a problemas graves para ela... a menos que os governos futuros aprisionem os consumidores com legislação esclavagista.

Acerca do futuro, a caminho de Mongo

Três textos, três temas que se relacionam permitindo perspectivar, espreitar, um pouco do futuro em Mongo.

• "A solar future isn't just likely — it's inevitable"

"Solar PV works differently: it converts sunlight directly into electricity.
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This difference sounds technical, but it is enormously consequential. It brings three obvious advantages, often touted by solar proponents.
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First, a solar cell has no moving parts, so operation and maintenance costs tend to be very low. It has to be kept clean, but that's about it.
Second, a solar cell requires no fuel — so fuel costs are zero. Once the initial investment is paid off, and subtracting modest O&M costs, the power produced is  free.
And third, a solar cell generates power without any pollution."

Os painéis solares vão ser cada vez mais eficientes e mais presentes no dia a dia, em locais que hoje não imaginamos, como a fachada de um edifício. A energia estará disponível em todo o lado, mesmo sem rede eléctrica (parte I e II).

• "How 3-D Printing Will Change Everything About Manufacturing"

 "[Moi ici: O choque da passagem da máquina a vapor como alimentadora de energia de uma fábrica, para a electricidade] Electrification enabled, for the first time, equipment that could operate independently of others in the factory, with the introduction of local electrical motors. Instead of being dependent on one or more line shafts, each piece of machinery could operate with a unit drive. This possibility completely confounded the designers and operators of the existing plants. Indeed, the magnitude of the potential change in plant design and possibility was so significant that many operators simply could not comprehend how vast the changes would be.
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With the advent of commercial 3-D printing, we are on the cusp of yet another seismic change in our assumptions of how manufacturing is conducted. Entire concepts that have underpinned the gospel of manufacturing, including lean manufacturing, six sigma quality, supply chain management, and many others will be challenged in the same, difficult-to-grasp way that electric motors called into question the gospel of plant design back in the 1900s. Many will have the same difficulty making the transition as their predecessors who depended on a centralized source of power did."

• "3-D PRINTING'S NAPSTER MOMENT" 

"Within days of Perry’s performance, he began to sell his Left Shark figurine on Shapeways, a central marketplace for 3-D-printed objects,
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The following day, Shapeways heard from Perry's lawyers. They demanded that the site swiftly remove Left Shark from the site, claiming that Perry owned the copyright on the shark suit. [Moi ici: Weird! Patentes no vestuário?] Within hours, the site complied.
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Familiar with the terrain, Sosa moved his Left Shark to Etsy and his personal website, then took to Twitter to drum up awareness of Perry’s lawyers’ accusations. As Sosa’s tweets went viral, NYU law professor Christopher Sprigman, who specializes in intellectual property conflicts, offered to represent him.
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Second, the copyright claim was erroneous to begin with. Perry didn’t own the copyright on the shark suit, because the suit wasn't necessarily copyrightable to begin with. Costumes fall into the category of "functional goods,"[Moi ici: Eu sabia] legal jargon for something that serves a useful purpose, as opposed to just being ornamental, Springman explains.
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It isn't clear yet if the rapidly growing technology of 3-D printing is straining other potentially competitive industries. At the moment, the NPD Group reports that action figures, accessories, and role-play toys accounted for $1.26 billion of $20 billion in U.S. toy sales in 2014.[Moi ici: Como não pensar no exemplo da indústria discográfica, nos jornais, na ...]
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"We have all learned a lot from technological disruptions in the past decade or two, and the biggest lesson seems to be that the best response to your customers adopting a new technology is to meet them there," he says. More legal battles over 3-D printing are coming, and uglier ones too. Weinberg underscores the upside to all the fighting for the future of the technology as a whole. "The good news is that all of this is a sign of a growing industry, and is really only happening because we are starting to see success."[Moi ici: Não pensei que começassem tão cedo]"

Aprender com os erros dos outros

Hoje, quando o Governo assinalar "A nova estratégia nacional para a energia que o ministro da Economia, Vieira da Silva vai anunciar hoje contrasta com o clima de restrição do Programa de Estabilidade e Crescimento (PEC). O volume total de investimento previsto para o sector, até 2020, é de 31 mil milhões de euros, para 130 mil a 140 mil novos postos de trabalho."(aqui)

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Era interessante que algum jornalista perguntasse ao ministro uma opinião sobre a experiência espanhola:

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"El informe muestra el terrible coste laboral y económico que está provocando el modelo energético implantado en España, consistente en el desvío de enormes recursos públicos al fomento de las energías renovables. Entre 2000 y 2008, el Gobierno español ha comprometido un total de 28.671 millones de euros -descontada la inflación- en subsidios públicos al fomento de energías renovables para los megavatios instalados sólo en dicho período. Un dinero que ha sido o será "sufragado íntegramente por el bolsillo de los ciudadanos, ya sea mediante nuevas subidas en el precio de la luz o aumento de impuestos", advierte.
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Como resultado, este despilfarro de recursos ha provocado la destrucción neta de 113.000 puestos de trabajo en la economía española, según el informe. Es decir, 2,2 trabajos destruidos por cada “empleo verde” generado por este sector gracias a la subvención."

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Ou seja, usando a referência espanhola, a estratégia do Governo ao promover esta bolha nas energias renováveis irá destruir cerca de 290 a 310 mil postos de trabalho.

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Julgo que foi Confúcio que disse que a forma suprema de inteligência era aprender com os erros dos outros para os não repetir:

• "Cada “empleo verde” que promete Zapatero cuesta 571.138 euros a los españoles";
• "Cada “empleo verde” que promete Zapatero cuesta 571.138 euros a los españoles";
• "En Alemania explotará una bomba informativa: cada puesto de trabajo en la energía solar cuesta 150.000 euros al año!"

Claro que se perguntassem isto ao ministro Vieira da Silva ele ligaria a cassete e diria:

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"Acham que a função de um Governo é estar a antecipar uma evolução negativa para a qual não tem ainda nenhum dado que o confirme? Se o estivesse a fazer, seria um profundo erro."

Para reflexão

"“Solar Crisis Set to Hit in 2010″

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"The solar industry is already suffering from significant overcapacity, yet incumbents are adding still more manufacturing to try to secure a cost competitive position after the shakeout."