The end of the middle-market (parte II)

"Value migration", "the end of the middle-market", "stuck-in-the-middle", "polarização dos mercados", "trading-up", "trading-down", ...
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Estes são os marcadores que recordei assim que li este artigo "As America’s Middle Class Shrinks, P&G Adopts “Hourglass” Strategy":
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"In a marked shift from P&G's historic focus on middle-class households, "the world's largest maker of consumer products is now betting that the squeeze on middle America will be long lasting," The WSJ reports.
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The company is engaging in what The WSJ calls a "fundamental change" in how it markets products in the U.S. "We're going to do this both by tiering up in terms of value as well as tiering down our portfolio down," CEO Robert McDonald says. As noted above, P&G isn't the only company coming to the same conclusion: Heinz is following a similar strategy to P&G while Saks is focusing its attention more on high-end consumer vs. 'aspirational' shoppers."
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Nada de novo, talvez um acelerar da tendência mundial descrita neste postal baseado no fabuloso artigo de 2005 "The vanishing middle market" (chamo a atenção em particular para a figura 2)
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Michael Silverstein também escreveu sobre o fenómeno.
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Se olharmos para o nosso futuro próximo, tendo em conta este texto "O último fôlego da desvalorização fiscal" vai acontecer o mesmo, um reforço da polarização. Consumir vai, cada vez mais, ser considerado pecado, ser considerado um luxo.
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Não perder este artigo "As Middle Class Shrinks, P&G Aims High and Low"

A polarização dos mercados

A polarização dos mercados é um fenómeno que não surgiu com esta crise.
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Por exemplo, em 1996 Adrian  Slywotzky escreveu "Value Migration" de onde retirei:
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"1. Customers in many industries, becoming more sophisticated, are less apt to pay high prices simply to stay with a know brand if a less-costly, high-quality substitute is available.
2. The competitive circle has expanded. An increasing number of international and entrepreneurial competitors with innovative business designs can provide superior utility to customers.
3. Advances in technology, which have made it far easier to produce lower-cost substitutes for many manufactured goods and components, have created more cross-category competition than existed in the past.
4. Many businesses are becoming less scale intensive. Lower-cost information, extensive use of outsourcing, and a trend away from manufacturing intensity are all reducing barriers to entry.
5. Improved customer access to information has lowered switching costs.
6. New competitors have easier access to capital, removing the advantage of a large existing cash flow associated with an established position."
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Em Novembro de 2005 o The McKinsey Quarterly publicou o artigo "The vanishing middle market" de Trond Riiber Knudsen, Andreas Randel, e Jørgen Rugholm que mostrava e exemplificava o desaparecimento do mercado do meio termo.
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Em 2006 Michael Silverstein escreveu "Treasure Hunt" de onde retirei logo da mensagem inicial ao leitor:
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"This book tells the story of how middle-class consumers around the world are reshaping the consumer-goods market by trading down to low-price products and services, trading up to premium ones, and avoiding the boredom and low value that incresingly characterize the middle."
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É natural que a crise que vivemos tenha influenciado esta polarização dos mercados. No entanto, não a criou!
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Ontem o Financial Times abordou o tema com o artigo "Unequal recovery":
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"Markets can tell you how the world has changed before statisticians have even printed their questionnaires. Consider that since the end of the US recession in June 2009, shares in Tiffany and Saks, which both sell mostly to the rich, have risen 108 and 186 per cent respectively; shares in discount retailers Family Dollar and Costco are both up about 50 per cent; but shares in mid-range retailers Walmart andBest Buy are up 3 and down 15 per cent respectively. European markets tell the same story: companies that sell to the very rich or the very poor are prospering; those selling to the middle are not."

Não vejo diferenças!

Leio o artigo "Let Emerging Market Customers Be Your Teachers" de Guillermo D’Andrea, David Marcotte, e Gwen Dixon Morrison, na revista Harvard Business Review deste mês de Dezembro e pergunto:

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Qual a novidade? Qual a diferença para os mercados dos países desenvolvidos? Não vejo diferença nenhuma!

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"In developing economies, the retail aisle is where the marketing action is—it’s where customers make purchasing decisions. McKinsey studies show that in China, for example, as many as 45% of consumers make those decisions inside stores, compared with 24% in the United States." (Moi ici: Nirmalya Kumar, Thomassen & Lincoln pelo menos, apontam para a mesma tendência nos mercados dos países desenvolvidos)

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Segue-se trecho retirado de "Retailization : brand survival in the age of retailer power" de Keith Lincoln, Lars Thomassen & Anthony Aconis.":

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"Shoppers have grown increasingly sceptical of brands and retailers alike and their endless marketing claims. They have become increasingly informed, thanks to the internet, as they are able to compare prices, service levels and features at the click of a button. This is knowledge they actively use as a weapon in their increasingly aggressive and independent shopping behaviour. Shoppers are squeezing the brand to perform and be priced according to their wants.

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When these super-charged and scarily informed shoppers are out there they do not waste time. Their loyalty stretches only a couple of seconds: as Rolf Eriksen, CEO of H&M, told us in the Preface, ‘Our success depends on what customers think when they meet us, and we believe that our customers spend four seconds to decide whether they like the meeting or not.’

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The Economist (2005a) reports that shoppers waste no more than six seconds on average looking for a specific brand before they settle for an alternative. This is fascinating stuff.

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In a 2004 report, retail experts POPAI described how more and more brand decisions are made in-store. In Europe, 75 per cent of the purchase decisions are made after the shoppers enter the store. In the United States, the number is 70 per cent (Liljenwall, 2004)."

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Voltando ao artigo da HBR:

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“Customers buy the cheapest or the best. Whether the economy is strong or weak, developed market consumers tend to buy across the price spectrum. They might show up at the register with a high-end digital camera, medium-quality linens, and cheap sunglasses. Emerging market consumers focus on essentials, favoring the lowest-priced items that offer acceptable quality, even when it comes to luxuries. They tend to know the exact price of everything they want and refuse to pay more.

They also refuse to buy in greater quantities than they need, even if that means they must purchase an individual piece or two from an opened package in a traditional outdoor market.” (Moi ici: E o que é isto senão a aplicação deste artigo de 2005 “The vanishing middle market” que tantas vezes cito neste blogue)

O mesmo primeiro trecho retirado de Retailization serve para suportar este outro trecho da HBR:

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“Consumers care about quality, not status. In developed economies, many companies successfully position their brands as status symbols. But in areas with low incomes, that strategy often falls flat.

The allure of status isn’t enough to induce consumers to buy. Instead, shoppers care most about quality. Multinationals may feel they’ve got the quality issue covered, but it’s not always that simple” (Moi ici: O mesmo no mercado dos países desenvolvidos. Basta procurer o marcador Centromarca, basta estudar o avanço das private label, basta estudar os autores que referi acima, basta ler “Treasure Hunt: Inside the Mind of the New Consumer“ de Michael J. Silverstein e John Butman”)