Decidam-se, em que ficamos?

Jornal Público "Juros da dívida portuguesa disparam após aviso da Moody’s a Espanha
30.07.2010 - 12:27"
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Jornal Público "Risco da dívida portuguesa é o segundo que mais melhora hoje
30.07.2010 - 13:07"

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Por que é que o risco baixa e o juro sobe?

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Quadro às 13h29.

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Será porque o segundo artigo foi escrito pela Lusa?

Para reflexão

"Banca comprou mais dívida pública para ajudar o Estado"

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"A dívida pública, os bancos e o BCE" (Se o editorial do jornal económico do regime diz que não há problema... é por que há problema)

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"Teodora Cardoso diz que instituições portuguesas têm situação sólida" (Estas coisas são demasiado sensíveis e importantes para se dizerem... demonstram-se!!!)

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E quando os jornais avançam com o título "Houve mais procura que oferta" quando os Estados colocam dívida... pois!

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Adenda: Está tudo bem! Ponzi lovers!

Malditas agências de rating

Depois do delírio de ontem à noite na SIC-N contra as agências de rating, lembrei-me de um textode Rabelais que Edward Hugh me deu a conhecer há alguns anos:

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Extraído do III Livro de diálogos entre Gargantua e Pantagruel:

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"But, quoth Pantagruel, when will you be out of debt? At the next ensuing term of the Greek kalends, answered Panurge, when all the world shall be content, and that it be your fate to become your own heir. The Lord forbid that I should be out of debt, as if, indeed, I could not be trusted. Who leaves not some leaven over night, will hardly have paste the next morning.

Be still indebted to somebody or other, that there may be somebody always to pray for you, that the giver of all good things may grant unto you a blessed, long, and prosperous life; fearing, if fortune should deal crossly with you, that it might be his chance to come short of being paid by you, he will always speak good of you in every company, ever and anon purchase new creditors unto you; to the end, that through their means you may make a shift by borrowing from Peter to pay Paul, and with other folk’s earth fill up his ditch.

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Believe me, your creditors with a more fervent devotion will beseech Almighty God to prolong your life, they being of nothing more afraid than that you should die; for that they are more concerned for the sleeve than the arm, and love silver better than their own lives. As it evidently appeareth by the usurers of Landerousse, who not long since hanged themselves because the price of the corn and wines was fallen by the return of a gracious season. To this Pantagruel answering nothing, Panurge went on in his discourse, saying, Truly and in good sooth, sir, when I ponder my destiny aright, and think well upon it, you put me shrewdly to my plunges, and have me at a bay in twitting me with the reproach of my debts and creditors. And yet did I, in this only respect and consideration of being a debtor, esteem myself worshipful, reverend, and formidable. For against the opinion of most philosophers, that of nothing ariseth nothing, yet, without having bottomed on so much as that which is called the First Matter, did I out of nothing become such (a) maker and creator, that I have created—what?—a gay number of fair and jolly creditors. Nay, creditors, I will maintain it, even to the very fire itself exclusively, are fair and goodly creatures. Who lendeth nothing is an ugly and wicked creature, and an accursed imp of the infernal Old Nick. And there is made—what? Debts. A thing most precious and dainty, of great use and antiquity. Debts, I say, surmounting the number of syllables which may result from the combinations of all the consonants, with each of the vowels heretofore projected, reckoned, and calculated by the noble Xenocrates. To judge of the perfection of debtors by the numerosity of their creditors is the readiest way for entering into the mysteries of practical arithmetic.

You can hardly imagine how glad I am, when every morning I perceive myself environed and surrounded with brigades of creditors—humble, fawning, and full of their reverences. And whilst I remark that, as I look more favourably upon and give a cheerfuller countenance to one than to another, the fellow thereupon buildeth a conceit that he shall be the first despatched and the foremost in the date of payment, and he valueth my smiles at the rate of ready money, it seemeth unto me that I then act and personate the god of the passion of Saumure, accompanied with his angels and cherubims.

These are my flatterers, my soothers, my clawbacks, my smoothers, my parasites, my saluters, my givers of good-morrows, and perpetual orators; which makes me verily think that the supremest height of heroic virtue described by Hesiod consisteth in being a debtor, wherein I held the first degree in my commencement. Which dignity, though all human creatures seem to aim at and aspire thereto, few nevertheless, because of the difficulties in the way and encumbrances of hard passages, are able to reach it, as is easily perceivable by the ardent desire and vehement longing harboured in the breast of everyone to be still creating more debts and new creditors.

Yet doth it not lie in the power of everyone to be a debtor. To acquire creditors is not at the disposure of each man’s arbitrament. You nevertheless would deprive me of this sublime felicity. You ask me when I will be out of debt. Well, to go yet further on, and possibly worse in your conceit, may Saint Bablin, the good saint, snatch me, if I have not all my lifetime held debt to be as a union or conjunction of the heavens with the earth, and the whole cement whereby the race of mankind is kept together; yea, of such virtue and efficacy that, I say, the whole progeny of Adam would very suddenly perish without it. Therefore, perhaps, I do not think amiss, when I repute it to be the great soul of the universe, which, according to the opinion of the Academics, vivifieth all manner of things. In confirmation whereof, that you may the better believe it to be so, represent unto yourself, without any prejudicacy of spirit, in a clear and serene fancy, the idea and form of some other world than this; take, if you please, and lay hold on the thirtieth of those which the philosopher Metrodorus did enumerate, wherein it is to be supposed there is no debtor or creditor, that is to say, a world without debts."

"it's the debt, stupid"

"it's the debt, stupid"
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"I suspect the GDP fetishism owes a lot to the models currently in use in the economics field, which focus exclusively on an economy’s income statement."
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"More noteworthy for me is how the salt- and freshwater types completely disregard debt, an issue central to the Austrian and Minskyian schools of thought. Paul Krugman wrote 6,000 words focused only on the income statement. There was no mention of the huge rise in debt in the U.S. and other economies like the U.K., Spain, Ireland, Iceland or Latvia.

All of these countries have one common feature: asset price booms underpinned by rising debt levels. Let’s hope we start seeing more discussion about the balance sheet in future."

Can't solve debt-induced crisis with more debt

Deleveraging-induced downturn inevitable.
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The problema was caused by irresponsible lending and the only way out is to eliminate that debt.
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Um vídeo interessante sobre uma palestra de Steve Keen.
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BTW, leiam o texto da página 7 deste relatório da OCDE... de Junho de 2007

Oops!

De que é que estavam à espera?
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"Receitas fiscais terão caído 20% em Abril"

"China fears bond crisis as it slams quantitative easing"

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Quando é o banco central do Zimbabué a fazê-lo "Aqui d'el rei! Que não pode ser!"

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Quando são os bancos centrais ocidentais "No pasa nada!!!"

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Mas parece que os chineses não vão na conversa. E se os chineses não vão na conversa... Oops... Houston, we have a big problem!

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O dinheiro vai ser rateado entre quem der mais e com mais garantias!

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Hello PIGS!

O Freeport ...

... é um biombo espectacular!!!
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Segundo a OCDE a dívida pública portuguesa, que era inferior a 64% em 2007, rondará os 86% em 2010.
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Além de Camilo Lourenço (Não há (mesmo) almoços grátis) mais alguém se preocupa?
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Cadê os outros?!

Negar a realidade

Perante este panorama, custa-me constatar que há gente que não percebe a enormidade da situação, e nega as evidências, esconde/adia a realidade ("Não ter noção da realidade é não perceber como a sociedade em que vivemos se está a modificar, não perceber os outros, imaginar inimigos e perigos inexistentes e ignorar os perigos reais. Significa envolver-se em coisas que não são possíveis e não fazer as que são úteis ou necessárias." Trecho retirado do artigo "Contacto com a realidade" de Francesco Alberoni, publicado pelo Diário Económico de ontem).
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O Diário Económico de ontem apresentou um exemplo claro desta negação da realidade no artigo "Portugueses endividam-se para adiar efeitos da crise" assinado por Luís Reis Ribeiro (!ª Lei dos Buracos - quando descobrires que estás num... pára de cavar!)
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O governo também alinha, com o monumental Programão das Obras Públicas...