Pequenas experiências

Em defesa da descentralização, da desconcentração, da experimentação, das pequenas tentativas:

“A bold decision always looks good—until it is wrong. To facilitate evidence-based decision making, managers must carry out frequent experimentation to diminish the dark space of ignorance and to arrive at conclusions with the required level of familiarity. Critical assumptions must first be identified and then proved right through rigorous experiments.
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took an evolutionary approach, ran numerous experiments, before hitting a pivotal moment. This is how the strategy process under uncertainty should be managed: create enough opportunities so that relevant evidence can emerge—but once clear, full steam ahead.
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THE REFRAIN “IF YOU DON’T KNOW WHERE YOU’RE GOING, ANY road will take you there” captures the importance of managers developing a point of view about the world. But awareness is not the same as commitment, so insights alone never suffice. Because strategy and execution are inextricably linked, “unless ideas are translated into everyday actions and operational tactics, a pioneer is still at risk of being displaced by copycats. More often than not, the role of a CEO needs to go beyond strategic visioning and into the substance of strategy implementation, particularly during turbulent times.” [Moi ici: Interessante fazer a ponte para o que os prussianos aprenderam: estratégia é uma intenção geral que tem de ser executada no terreno por gente perante situações concretas impossíveis de prever à partida]

Interessante esta nota:

“The Japanese don’t use the term ‘strategy’ to describe a crisp business definition or competitive master plan. They think more in terms of ‘strategic accommodation,’ or ‘adaptive persistence,’ underscoring their belief that corporate direction evolves from an incremental adjustment to unfolding events.”

Excerto de: Howard Yu. “Leap”.

A assimetria do negativo

Esta semana, em mais um projecto, depois de:

• identificados os clientes-alvo;
• definida a proposta de valor;
• desenhado o mapa da estratégia;
• seleccionados os indicadores; e
• estabelecidas metas, para os indicadores com histórico.

Para iniciar o desenvolvimento das iniciativas estratégicas, pedi aos elementos da empresa que seguissem a metodologia que criei há anos a partir da Teoria das Restrições:

• 1º identifiquem factos negativos, concretos, tangíveis, que são uma evidência de que as promessas que fazemos no mapa da estratégia estão a falhar;
• 2º identifiquem uma ou mais causas que, em vossa opinião, estejam na origem de cada um dos factos negativos; 
• 3º identifiquem uma ou mais razões que, em vossa opinião, justificam a importância estratégica de cada um dos factos negativos que identificaram inicialmente.

Depois, a partir daqui criamos uma rede de relações de causa-efeito que ilustram a conspiração que está a actuar no terreno hoje e, assim, impede a empresa de hoje de ter o desempenho que aspiramos a vir a ter no futuro desejado.

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Recordei-me disto tudo ao ler este trecho de "The Progress Principle" de Teresa Amabile e Steven Kramer:

"If you want to foster great inner work life, focus first on eliminating the obstacles that cause setbacks. Why? Because one setback has more power to sway inner work life than one progress incident. Some surprising evidence: The effect of setbacks on emotions is stronger than the effect of progress.a Although progress increases happiness and decreases frustration, the effect of setbacks is not only opposite on both types of emotions—it is greater. The power of setbacks to diminish happiness is more than twice as strong as the power of progress to boost happiness. The power of setbacks to increase frustration is more than three times as strong as the power of progress to decrease frustration. Smal losses can overwhelm smal wins. The asymmetry between the power of setbacks and progress events appears to apply even to relatively minor triggers. Similarly, smal everyday hassles at work hold more sway than smal everyday supports.b Negative team leader behaviors affect inner work life more broadly than do positive team leader behaviors. The fact that people write longer diary narratives about negative events of al kinds—not just setbacks—compared with neutral or positive events hints that people may expend more cognitive and emotional energy on bad events than good ones."

O que só vem reforçar a importância daquele 1º passo!!! Gosto de seguir esta metodologia porque foca a atenção das pessoas em coisas concretas e dá origem a projectos cirurgicamente muito mais precisos.

A importância das "small wins"

Já aqui escrevi várias vezes acerca da importância das "small wins", por exemplo:

• "Small wins"
• "Switch - acerca da mudança (parte VII)"

Desta vez, depois das opiniões de Karl Weick e Chip e Dan Heath, eis a opinião de John Kotter:

• "Celebrating Short-Term Wins"

A recuperação de uma economia é feita assim

Empresa a empresa. Cada uma delas é uma "small win":
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"Small Wins and Feeling Good"
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De repente, após o tipping point, ganha-se um momentum positivo.

Small Wins

Karl Weick, neste artigo de 1984, “Small Wins”, chama a importância para as pequenas vitórias.
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Algo que comecei a aprender com Robert Schaffer no seu livro “The Breakthrough Strategy” e que consolidei com o uso do acrónimo SMARTa para apoiar a redacção de objectivos.
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Specific
Measurable
Attainable
Responsibility
Time-framed
aligned
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Os projectos têm de ser atingíveis, têm de ser manejáveis, para isso, têm de ter uma dimensão adequada.
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O mesmo Robert Schaffer, e Harvey A. Thomson, escreveram um fabuloso artigo para a revista Harvard Business Review (Janeiro-Fevereiro de 1992), “Successful Change Programs Begin with Results”. Segundo os autores, a maior parte dos esforços de melhoria têm resultados neglicenciáveis , porque se concentram nas actividades a realizar e não nos resultados a atingir, e porque não existe nenhuma relação entre acção e consequências. Ao dedicarem-se a pequenos projectos, os gestores podem não só ver os resultados mais rapidamente como também determinar mais rapidamente o que está a resultar ou não.
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Muita gente prefere dedicar-se a grandes, a grandiosos e ambiciosos projectos. Projectos que se tornam, por isso, muito grandes, demasiado grandes e muito provavelmente monumentos à treta (parte I e parte II). (talvez uma consequência do empurrar em vez do puxar, do PDCA em vez do CAPD associado ao CASD)
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Boyd ao explicar como funcionou o conceito de blitzkrieg chamou a atenção para o conceito de schwerpunkt (parte I e parte II):
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“Schwerpunkt represents a unifying concept that provides a way to rapidly shape focus and direction of effort as well as harmonize support activities with combat operations, thereby permit a true decentralization of tactical command within centralized strategic guidance—without losing cohesion of overall effort.

or put another way

Schwerpunkt represents a unifying medium that provides a directed way to tie initiative of many subordinate actions with superior intent as a basis to diminish friction and compress time in order to generate a favorable mismatch in time/ability to shape and adapt to unfolding circumstances."
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Horst Rittel escreveu:
“· Simple problems (problems which are already defined) are easy to solve, because defining a problem inherently defines a solution.
· The definition of a problem is subjective; it comes from a point of view. Thus, when defining problems, all stake-holders, experts, and designers are equally knowledgeable (or unknowledgeable).
· Some problems cannot be solved, because stake-holders cannot agree on the definition. These problems are called wicked, but sometimes they can be tamed.”
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Assim, tudo se encaminha para o mesmo propósito, apostar em pequenos projectos, projectos que podem ser resolvidos rapidamente, projectos que podem fornecer resultados palpáveis rapidamente, projectos que podem ser mais facilmente geridos.
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Karl Weick chama a atenção para a as pequenas vitórias associadas a pequenos projectos:
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“To recast larger problems into smaller, less arousing problems, people can identify a series of controllable opportunities of modest size that produce visible results and that can be gathered into synoptic solutions.”
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“The following analysis of small wins assumes that arousal varies among people concerned with social problems, but tends to be relatively high, which affects the quality of performance directed at these problems.”
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“Sometimes problem solving suffers from too little arousal. When people think too much or feel too powerless, issues become depersonalized. This lowers arousal, leading to inactivity or apathetic performance.
The prospect of a small win has an immediacy, tangibility, and controllability that could reverse these effects.”
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“A small win is a concrete, complete, implemented outcome of moderate importance. By itself, one small win may seem unimportant. A series of wins at small but significant tasks, however, reveals a pattern that may attract allies, deter opponents, and lower resistance to subsequent proposals. Small wins are controllable opportunities that produce visible results.”
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“Once a small win has been accomplished, forces are set in motion that favor another small win. When a solution is put in place, the next solvable problem often becomes more visible. This occurs because new allies bring new solutions with them and old opponents change their habits. Additional resources also flow toward winners, which means that slightly larger wins can be attempted.
It is important to realize that the next solvable problem seldom coincides with the next "logical" step as judged by a detached observer. Small wins do not combine in a neat, linear, serial form, with each step being a demonstrable step closer to some predetermined goal. More common is the circumstance where small wins are scattered and cohere only in the sense that they move in the same general direction or all move away from some deplorable condition.”
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“A series of small wins can be gathered into a retrospective summary that imputes a consistent line of development, but this post hoc construction should not be mistaken for orderly implementation. Small wins have a fragmentary character driven by opportunism and dynamically changing situations. Small wins stir up settings, which means that each subsequent attempt at another win occurs in a different context. Careful plotting of a series of wins to achieve a major change is impossible because conditions do not remain constant.”
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“Small wins provide information that facilitates learning and adaptation. Small wins are like miniature experiments that test implicit theories about resistance and opportunity and uncover both resources and barriers that were invisible before the situation was stirred up.”