Mostrar mensagens com a etiqueta custos afundados. Mostrar todas as mensagens
Mostrar mensagens com a etiqueta custos afundados. Mostrar todas as mensagens

segunda-feira, janeiro 27, 2025

12 slogans

Outro recorte do livro "This is strategy" de Seth Godin:

"77. Twelve Slogans

What do we talk about when we talk about strategy? Consider these building blocks:
  • The future is an unvisited city, but we can see it from a distance [Moi ici: A visão estratégica consiste em reconhecer o que está à frente e em se preparar, mesmo sem conhecer o detalhe. Meter os pés ao caminho, acaba por construir o caminho... isto é Karl Weick e o mapa dos Alpes que afinal era dos Pirinéus
  • The audience can be chosen [Moi ici: Foco é essencial; escolher o público certo, os clientes-alvo, define o impacte e a relevância de uma estratégia]
  • Projects can be managed [Moi ici: Gestão é a ponte entre a ideia e a execução; projectos bem geridos trazem resultados. A mudança é operacionalizada por projectos]
  • We make decisions [Moi ici: Decisões são inevitáveis e moldam o caminho; a hesitação é o maior risco]
  • A difference can be made [Moi ici: Mesmo pequenas mudanças podem ter impactes significativos quando bem direccionadas. Estratégia no mundo dos negócios passa por decidir a audiência a servir e propor-lhe uma oferta que se diferencia das demais]
  • Assets can be built 
  • Networks can be created [Moi ici: O networking é um multiplicador de valor; as redes certas ampliam o alcance e os recursos. Por isso, escrevemos aqui tanto sobre ecossistemas]
  • Traction is the way forward [Moi ici: O progresso sustentável depende de ganhos consistentes que reforçam o movimento]
  • Sunk costs can be ignored [Moi ici: Evitar o bias do custo afundado permite decisões mais racionais e estratégicas]
  • Organizations change [Moi ici: A mudança é inevitável e necessária para a adaptação e evolução organizacional]
    • You're not sitting in traffic-you are traffic" [Moi ici: Reconhecer o papel no sistema permite novas abordagens para resolver problemas colectivos.

    sábado, outubro 28, 2017

    "Once escalation takes hold ..."

    Deve ter sido isto que aconteceu recentemente com a entrada do Estado no capital do SIRESP:
    "Once escalation takes hold, it can be difficult to reverse, but you can reduce the chances of falling into that trap.
    ...
    Escalation of commitment is deeply rooted in the human brain. In a classic experiment, two groups of participants were asked whether they would be willing to invest $1 million to develop a stealth bomber. The first group was asked to assume that the project had not yet been launched and that a rival company had already developed a successful (and superior) product. Unsurprisingly, only 16.7% of those participants opted to commit to the funding.
    .
    The second group was asked to assume that the project was already 90% complete. Its members, too, were told that a competitor had developed a superior product. This time 85% opted to commit the resources to complete the project.
    .
    These results underscore the fact that people tend to stick to an existing course of action, no matter how irrational. The project’s likely outcome was identical for both groups. Because a competitor had beaten the company to the market with a superior product, the new product was almost bound to fail. The only difference between the two situations was the timing of the question: before commitment to the project versus when it was nearing completion."
    Cuidado com a relação entre humanos e custos afundados. Boa para manter os laços na tribo, má para a racionalidade das decisões de gestão.

    Trechos retirados de "Stop Doubling Down on Your Failing Strategy"

    sexta-feira, outubro 02, 2015

    O canto da sereia


    "Most enterprise managers find business model innovation decision making difficult preferring stay the course than to aim for paradigm shift. One possible explanation for this comes from a bias first described by Barry M. Staw in his 1976 paper, “Knee deep in the big muddy: A study of escalating commitment to a chosen course of action” and called: escalation of commitment or sunken cost fallacy. Even though it is commonly expected that individuals will reverse decisions or change behaviors which result in negative consequences. Yet, based on the cumulative prior investment and despite new evidence suggesting otherwise, within investment decision contexts, negative consequences may actually cause decision makers to increase the commitment of resources (time, money, manpower, emotions) and undergo the risk of further negative consequences."
    Trecho retirado de "Why you’re in love with your current business model"

    terça-feira, janeiro 20, 2015

    Acerca dos custos afundados

    Um artigo que nos faz pensar em alguns políticos e gestores e, esboçar um sorriso amarelo. "Knee-Deep in the Big Muddy: A Study of Escalating Commitment to a Chosen Course of Action" de Barry M. Staw, publcado 1976 na Organizational Behavior and Human Performance.
    .
    Aqui vão os trechos mais salientes:
    "It is commonly expected that individuals will reverse decisions or change behaviors which result in negative consequences. Yet, within investment decision contexts, negative consequences may actually cause decision makers to increase the commitment of resources and undergo the risk of further negative consequences.
    ...
    Results showed that persons committed the greatest amount of resources to a previously chosen course of action when they were personally responsible for negative consequences.
    .
    Intuitively, one would expect individuals to reverse decisions or to change behaviors which result in negative consequences. Yet, there seem to be many important instances in which persons do not respond as expected to the reward/cost contingencies of their environments. Specifically, when a person's behavior leads to negative consequences we may find that the individual will, instead of changing his behavior, cognitively distort the negative consequences to more positively valenced outcomes.
    The phenomenon underlying this biasing of behavioral outcomes is often said to be a self-justification process in which individuals seek to rationalize their previous behavior or psychologically defend themselves against adverse consequences."